XXI century fascism in full blown action in Venezuela

Representatives Machado and Borges after a working day

Little did I know that the post I finished Sunday, to let up for a few days, would be proven prophetic 48 hours later, as reader Luis F already commented. The musings about chavismo becoming what could not dare say its name, XXI century fascism, came home today home to root with a vengeance  At the Nazional Assembly, Diosdado Cabello and Pedro Carroña Carreño set up an ambush on opposition deputies to beat them up, while locking the doors so no one could escape so guards could try to stop them from taking videos of the scene. Female chavista representatives had the courtesy of being the ones beating up opposition female representatives like Maria Corina Machado.

I am not going to go into the beating up details, there are articles already up, and already in English. I am just putting the basic video below where you can see clearly that Venezuelan flagged jackets wearing chavista representatives are brutally attacking opposition Representatives  It says it all, this was not a "spur of the moment angst expression".



Exclusivo: Video muestra la golpiza que ocurrió... por Globovision

You also need to know that while the brawl took place the TV cameras went up to the ceiling, while the microphones amplified the voice of the chavista speaker pretending that all was normal. Of course  Maduro was in national cadena so we had to wait a while until the cadena was over so finally Globovision showed the violence. No word yet as tot he Televen or Venevision mentioning "the incident". The deliberate set up, with the stupid aim that just maybe the country would not find out.....

Now, rather than go into the gory details that regular readers of this blog already know happened, let's try to think about the why.

The first thing to note is that the Speaker, Diosdado Cabello, not selected by Chavez to succeed him, was presiding over it all, did not try to stop it, had armed body guards just in case and even laughed at the thing. So yes, he did all what a fascist would be expected to do.

But surely he cannot be THAT stupid not to know that this is going to have repercussions internationally (and at home as apparently chavismo numbers would be already dropping in surveys). Why is Diosdado thus doing something which in the end can only damage Maduro as the opposition representatives are already pointing out? Well, those able to comment, because 7 are reported injured and one in a hospital tonight. We must also comment that even if Cabello and Carroña Carreño argument that the opposition representatives are in open rebellion, there are legal mechanisms available to silence them fast without having to make such a public PR disaster. What gives?

It is possible that it is the order from Cuba and that they are trying to go as far as they can to silence the opposition through repression (1). But this is dangerous because a delegation of 3 representatives with that video in hand would be enough to go to the OAS and demand that the Chart for democracy and human rights is applied to Venezuela. Small comfort you may say but forcing people like Dilma or Santos to take position at the OAS in favor a Maduro can bring them quite a lot of grief at the time where they are planning their reelection.... (2)

Or, it is possible that a scorn Cabello, knowing that Maduro is getting ready to do him in, who knows that he is unelectable, is doing such idiotico-fascist antics to sink along with Maduro. With an even crazier variation, that he may be able to replace Maduro through a coup, because Maduro cannot silence the opposition. This has to be the reason, there is no other one that makes sense. I am open to suggestions and will add them below this line if any reader comes up with something original and believable.

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1) It is possible that this hypothesis is operating as unaccountably the Venezuelan american has arrested for terrorism a rather naive "gringo" making a documentary. This last week end, pre-Tuesday night parliament battle is already picked up by a very strongly worded Washington Post Editorial that covers this week end repressive actions including the arrest of General Rivero (while the New York Times seems concerned elsewhere?).

2) In Colombia not only Uribe but now Pastrana is attacking Santos policies on Venezuela.

Chavismo: from XXI century socialism to XXI century fascism

Perhaps it is inaccurate to start a post on ideology pretending that chavismo is one. There is no such thing as "chavismo" besides the unconditional love and tolerance of his groupies for any inaneness that Chavez blurted since 1992.  Chavez changed many times his speech, admitted to too many influences and thus implied a lack of understanding of what he read, making him unable to forge some kind of basic coherent ideology that could survive him. Then again, it was quite possible that he never planned for his "post-me" era, that he always thought that his message was obvious, even when he got sick and knew his days were numbered. Such was his ego that we could assume that to be true.


Chavez always was more nationalist than anything else, nationalist of the crass variety,  the one where "we are better than any other and all of our problems are provoked by others". The lack of Jews in Venezuela and the long tradition of faux-pas of the USA in Latin American history pushed him obviously into a primal form of anti USA, a noted offer in a country that was a solid ally of the US, but never an unconditional one. But as his regime developed a simplistic anti US policy was not enough and once Chavez survived the 2002-2004 instability he surrendered to the Castro-Cuban influence.

Chavez certainly adopted some leftist standards in his speeches from the start for one very single reason: since 1958 no Venezuela politician had ever succeeded in Venezuela with a personal responsibility and business platform. That once in office something else was practiced is another matter: but to reach the presidency in Venezuela you always needed a populist discourse, which meant borrowing cliches from the left. At heart Chavez was always an authoritarian first, a nationalist second and a leftist third. Even the decision to use democracy to destroy it was a decision that did not come easily to him., so reluctant he was to tame his power pulses.

It was in 2004 when truly started the alleged leftism of the regime with massive expropriations and cute inventions such as "cooperatives" schemes now long forgotten. Also, it was in 2004 that terms such as "socialism of the XXI century"  started to be forged. After his 2006 reelection Chavez finally proclaimed himself a socialist.

In spite of his professed admiration for leftist icons like Fidel, or leftist military juntas like Velasco Alvarado, the socialism of the XXI century was never very convincing and was really nothing more than an extreme form of populism, á la Peron if you want an historical reference. Under Chavez what we saw was a massive corruption that resulted in the creation of a new economic elite associated with the regime while the real improvement in the social conditions of the masses was of cosmetic quality, certainly not sustainable as the economic record has made it perfectly clear now when Venezuela more than ever in its history has become dependent of a single crop from the earth, oil.

But Chavez was not changing his positions anymore. He had created a clientele system where his power was based on getting according to the merits they gained at the service of a revolution that never truly existed. Ideology in such situation is really not needed and whatever was in place by 2006 remained, simply used as a mask to hide the true nature of the regime: an authoritarian presidency for life which rests upon a limited elite willing to do all the dirty work for the Supreme leader. The perversion of Chavez system, his final paradox was that the loud nationalist surrendered the control of the country to Cuba to the point of going to die when necessary.

Thus the problem for his successors is what to do with the "ideological" mess left behind. With the Cuban influence and decades of young Venezuelans gone to Cuba for "training", including Maduro himself, there is certainly going on an attempt to radicalize further the regime towards a communist hue. After all, even Fidel himself recognized in a noted interview to Venezuela pro Chavez journalists that "XXI century socialism" was nothing more than XX century communism.

Unfortunately the XXI century adjective makes a shift towards communism nearly impossible. Venezuela is not an island like Cuba, and the world is globalized even if the regime has made our internet one of the most expensive and less functional of the continent, on purpose.  Also, that client nature where people, contrary to Cuba, expect more than just food, combined to a powerful corrupt class that likes to show off its wealth makes it difficult to radicalize the discourse in a Communist way. Even the pet project of Chavez where the country was going to be divided in "Comunas" has left everyday language. The struggle inside chavismo is thus a decision between XXI communism and XXI century fascism. Fascism is a more applicable system to today's Venezuela, even if the F word is supposedly representative of the democratic opposition in official propaganda. But historical fascism has had never any problem of accusing the other side of their very own vices. We should also not forget that fascism and communism meet in their totalitarian extremes and Castroite Cuba could find many ways to accommodate comfortably a XXI century fascism.

We can look at how close to fascism chavismo is today by simply looking at this oversimplifying folk encyclopedia  Wikipedia. In a lengthy entry they cite, for example, a handy top 10 list to describe historical fascism (cited from Emilio Gentile). Certainly, XXI century fascism is going to be different, adapted to current reality but for the sake of it, let's look at that top 10 of historical fascism and not coincidences:

1) a mass movement with multiclass membership in which prevail, among the leaders and the militants, the middle sectors, in large part new to political activity, organized as a party militia, that bases its identity not on social hierarchy or class origin but on a sense of comradeship, believes itself invested with a mission of national regeneration, considers itself in a state of war against political adversaries and aims at conquering a monopoly of political power by using terror, parliamentary politics, and deals with leading groups, to create a new regime that destroys parliamentary democracy.

Well, clearly we see a lot of that in current Venezuela. Chavismo is multiclass because it goes from the poor to the nouveau bolibourgeois rich; it has a party militia although it is not efficient and tied to the army as a "reserve"; it has a self attributed mission of national regeneration; the "state of war" agaisnt poltical adversaries has become a tired cliche; parliament has been annulled; etc...

2) an 'anti-ideological' and pragmatic ideology that proclaims itself antimaterialist, anti-individualist, antiliberal, antidemocratic, anti-Marxist, is populist and anticapitalist in tendency, expresses itself aesthetically more than theoretically by means of a new political style and by myths, rites, and symbols as a lay religion designed to acculturate, socialize, and integrate the faith of the masses with the goal of creating a 'new man'

This is not as clear though some of the anti are included, and the nascent Chavez cult might be unto something.

3) a culture founded on mystical thought and the tragic and activist sense of life conceived of as the manifestation of the will to power, on the myth of youth as artificer of history, and on the exaltation of the militarization of politics as the model of life and collective activity.

From the Bolivarian cult (frowned upon by true commies which has explained the lower reccurence in current discoruse) to the alliance of "pueblo y ejercito", we can check this one also.

4) a totalitarian conception of the primacy of politices, conceived of as an integrating experience to carry out the fusion of the individual and the masses in the organic and mystical unity of the nation as an ethnic and moral community, adopting measures of discrimination and persecution against those considered to be outside this community either as enemies of the regime or members of races considered to be inferior or otherwise dangerous for the integrity of the nation

Chavez always claimed that politics was all that mattered, even in his integrationist schemes for Latin America. In his reelection of 2012 in fact politics and him at the helm was the core of his campaign since he could not run on his material record. If the ethnic element is impossible to introduce convincingly in such a mixed blood country as Venezuela, it remains that chavismo has promoted antisemitic feelings in Venezuela while promoting racial preferences for those closer to their african or native origins.

5) a civil ethic founded on total dedication to the national community, on discipline, virility, comradeship, and the warrior spirit
6) a single state party that has the task of providing for the armed defense of the regime, selecting its directing cadres, and organizing the masses within the state in a process of permanent mobilization of emotion and faith
7) a police apparatus that prevents, controls, and represses dissidence and opposition, even by using organized terror
8) a political system organized by hierarchy of functions named from the top and crowned by the figure of the 'leader,' invested with a sacred charisma, who commands, directs, and coordinates the activities of the party and the regime

 All of these have been attempted or established with varying measure of success.

9) corporative organization of the economy that suppresses trade union liberty, broadens the sphere of state intervention, and seeks to achieve, by principles of technocracy and solidarity, the collaboration of the 'productive sectors' under control of the regime, to achieve its goals of power, yet preserving private property and class divisions

 More than any communist approach to the means of production in theory under control of the workers, chavismo has clearly had a policy of state capitalism which has become simply a state control over the economy where the capitalist concept of efficiency was ignored to benefit the necessary corruption to secure support from the new elite. If private property and preservation of class division are banned form the official speech it remains that these are worse than ever: private property is only the one of those close to the regime and class division is a strictly enforced reality but through politics rather than economic criteria (the Tascon list is still alive and well, and used actively since April 14 in public administration for purging "undesirable" elements).

10) a foreign policy inspired by the myth of national power and greatness, with the goal of imperialist expansion

Certainly today it is the most difficult item to execute but Chavez has never hidden his desire to resurrect a "Gran Colombia" and has sponsored all sorts of internal organizations based more on politics and his interests than actual national needs.

In the last two weeks, in fact, since Chavez last trip to Cuba, signs of increased fascist outlooks are there. We cannot say yet whether this is on purpose, whether the excesses are still mostly due to disarray and inability to come to grip with the departure of the overwhelming leader, though I personally think that there is an open fight between the two totalitarian options within chavismo even though both claim to operate in the name of the people and under a leftist cover.  We have already characters that operate clearly along fascist lines, such as Diosdado Cabello at the National Assembly or Cilia Flores, the partner of Maduro, who is already busy placing her relatives and friends to key positions. We have some lefties who are acting in totalitarian ways like minister Molina threatening his employees, looking strangely fascist, arm band included.

Certainly an official "XXI century fascism" appellation is not possible. But let's entertain the thought that if Maduro et al. manage to survive their fraudulent election and retain office, their only way to remain on top will be though a mechanism of repression and social organization that will be closer to fascism than anything else since communism will even be less likely to be applied once the Castros die. Since they cannot call it XXI century fascism they will call it "chavismo".

The irony here is that what Chavez was unable to codify will be codified by his heirs who will be only too willing to put their excesses and abuses under the name of their former leader. Chavez crimes after his death will be worse than those he committed while alive.

Electoral fraud mode confirmed: it is in who voted, how many times they voted, where they voted

Wrecking her life work at the very end,
and in pink innocent girl!

It came as no surprise a few minutes ago: the CNE has announced that the audit it will allow DOES NOT include the books where voters must sign after they vote. Nor apparently the system that gets your fingerprints. In other words it is a useless audit because it  indeed will count the votes that were cast but does not account for those that were allowed to cast proper votes.

What are the implications?


First, we must note the combative and bitter tone of Tibisay Lucena cadena whose words are not those of an objective umpire whatsoever. She extended in some explanations which had as sole objective to disparage Capriles and dismiss his claims  Whether Lucena is allowed to think so does not give her the right to say it aloud: she is supposed to be an umpire.  The only explanation is that she is sending a message from the regime to the opposition: screw you! For those of you that read Spanish I am linking the transcript, which of course was made available to state TV beforehand but not to others I understand.

The second implication is graver: by refusing to visit the voter registry and to check the digital prints Lucena simply admits that any irregularities in the voting process are indeed there. Thus the only way for the opposition is to demand annulment of the election where indeed they can expose the arguments of undue pressure on voters that the CNE claims it cannot receive. In short: an amiable arrangement is now impossible, show of force are becoming and almost unavoidable outcome.

The third implication is even worse: by stonewalling for so long, by trying to dismiss clumsily the opposition reasonable petition, by offering an audit that she cannot possibly lose, by refusing to examine anything where indeed irregularities could be found, Tibisay Lucena is finishing her tenure at the head of the CNE casting a serious doubt about ALL the electoral processes that she presided over. The damage she has done to the CNE in the last two weeks may well be irreparable.

Now on for the "impugnacion".

Reminder: Tibisay Lucena at Chavez funeral wearing the fascist armband
 that  chavismo has adopted

Capriles officially does not recognize the election result

You may say that there is no surprise there, but the intention of last night special TV show of Capriles was to announce officially that under the conditions set by the CNE the opposition will not accept to participate in the audit and that it will push forward to denounce in court the election, "impugnar" we call it here. In other words, the ante has been pushed up since last night.

The first problem here is that the Venezuelan electoral board, CNE, has yet to describe how the audit is going to proceed. Capriles set a deadline for Thursday, and the CNE has not sent, that we know of, even a phone call to ask for, say, 24 hours more. No. The dithering of the CNE, Thursday gathered but "unofficially" so no communique could be issued, was a mere taunt.

Since it is clear that the regime has no intention of doing a serious audit (1), the opposition has no other choice than to legally denounce the election and ask for a new one, or at the very least a repeat of all the questioned centers (2), if those one amount to a potential of enough votes to change the final outcome. That would require, and it is my guess, that at least 1 million voters are called back to vote to annul the thin Maduro "margin of victory" and give Capriles a 1 vote majority. Or something like that. Right there you can understand that every single center which voting is contested has to be fought to death to force a new vote.

But then again, say, if the opposition makes a case for more than 2 million voters to vote again, we might as well make the case for repeating the April 14 election altogether.  The paradox is that the regime may actually want to annul the election anyway, thus avoiding an audit that it knows it will lose, and even worse, an audit result that will question results for previous elections all the way back to 2004 recall election fraud........ At least, this is what the few chavista left with some common sense should push for as the least of all evils for them.

My guess is that the regime is going to let Capriles go to court, exhaust him as much as possible him there and avoid the audit. As a P.R. it will be a disaster but for those thugs it does not matter much as long as they remain in office, free of legal prosecution. We can expect on the shirt term increased repression, and grotesque stone walling.

But even the best of stone walling will not serve them well.

First, the simple act of "impugnar" is enough to throw a doubt internationally on the election results  As such, serious countries, will automatically avoid signing major commitments with a regime that could be found out to be illegal suddenly with the people coming after having an excellent excuse not to pay.

Second, Venezuela automatically becomes irrelevant in international forums, what has happened to Iran after Moussavi was robbed of his victory. Not that Iran was much relevant before but after the post electoral repression Iran had to dig in at home and Ahmadinejerk can only travel to countries like Venezuela or its ALBA clients.

Third, as the regime keeps stalling and Venezuela opposition brings its case to international courts, from electoral fraud to fascist lay off of public workers, its ability to function decreases and even the elite economic prospects start being affected, fostering further internal divisions inside chavismo as el pueblo realizes that a regime that is so "cara dura", stone faced, is not worth supporting. And thus, by the end of the year, the regime may have lost enough support that it is not inconceivable that the OAS decides to apply to it the Interamerican Chart for Human Rights (or even Mercosur demands the application of the Ushuaia agreements once Paraguay returns to the fold and gets its hoped for revenge against Maduro (3).

And I can keep evaluating the consequences  But I trust you get my drift, that it is only starting and that difficult days await us ahead. Do not forget that not only the regime has to deal with fraud accusations that are credible, but it has aggravated its case by closing down parliament for all practical purposes, and shown its true fascist nature in the crass manipulation of information by making up outright lies shown in cadena, while abusing all sorts of workers rights. Chavez could get away with some of that because many believed his claim of 4ta republica, sabotage and what not. But Maduro does not have that advantage: he inherits a public administration and a legal system that has been set by them, through 14 years, and that know they want to do without. Overseas, that is not acceptable (4). It is clear for all that the opposition does not have the means to perpetrate the crimes that the regime is trying to paint on it.

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1) Serious audit: having access to the voting books where all voters must sign and stamp their thumb prints. This is the only way to know who really voted, who had the right to vote, who voted more than once. In other words, this si where the fraud resides and why the CNE does not want to surrender the books for examination.

2) Questioned centers: this is where the opposition has unassailable grounds as there are even videos of electoral abuses that simply cannot be dismissed, such as chavista officials watching directly how people voted. And the protests originated early on Sunday 14 so the CNE cannot play dumb. Apparently there are enough reports of those "voto asistido", assisted vote, centers that the opposition claims that 1 million at least should be asked to vote again without pressure.

3) Maduro was caught red handed trying to interfere in Paraguay internal affairs, stirring the military to make a coup. I van assure you that once Paraguay returns in the Mercosur fold, they will not have forgotten that and at the first opportunity will demand the application of democracy clauses of Mercosur against Venezuela.

4) I am giving you a simple telling example. In Spain Rajoy has tried to accept Maduro "victory" after he was promptly brow beaten by threats against Movistar, Repsol and BBVA, big Spanish interests in Venezuela. Even though he was prompt in accusing the socialist in power to be too lax in with Chavez when he was in opposition  Thus El Pais, center left, goes as far as translating into English some of its major recent articles on the crisis, and strong editorials.

Taking the gloves off: Capriles tells explicitly that Maduro stole the election

I did not know how to title this entry but scanning for background before typing it I thought that an adaption of Spain' El Pais would do. Because this is exactly what Capriles has done tonight: he has officially claimed that the election has been stolen from him. I am putting the portion of the video at the end of the post.

Far from me at this point to tell you that he is right or not, no matter how much evidence is already available. I am too far from the centers of opposition power and too ignored by them to be able to defend them, not that they need it much these days.

HOWEVER......

There is a few signs that show quite clearly that chavismo has something to hide. They are coming back on their word given at the UNASUR meeting of last Friday. The electoral board, CNE, goes all around saying that the results are irreversible no matter what the audit will say. They refuse to answer the written request of Capriles commando. And they are not even offering a serious audit methodology.

To this you add the ruthless campaign going on against Capriles in the state media and you do not need much to start agreeing with me: the regime has something to hide and is trying desperately to avoid an audit.  When that has happened in historical situations, I would bet anything that at least 90% of the time the people on power lost the election and were trying to retain office through cheating.

We must thus recast the battle in proper terms: this is not anymore about whether Capriles got a vote more or a vote less: this is about democracy, accounting, ethics, and the rule of law. And this is exactly what Capriles did tonight, stupidly proven right by yet another governmental abuse during his press conference.

This week has brought an increased attack against Capriles:  personal, fascist in the best tradition of Goebbels and his Cuban distinguished students.  The worse was yesterday's noon cadena where edited videos of last week wanted to prove that Capriles had been the single organizer of all the violence that happened last week. This came along the equally fascist threats from Iris Varela as to her having a cell bunk ready for Capriles, without mentioning the wave of repression that has fallen over the country since April 14, from tortured student protesting to firing public employees who were at the water cooler at the wrong time, because someone hear them pronounce the word Capriles.

Capriles took his time and replied tonight, not wanting to perturb what mattered more, that the CNE fess up to its promise of last Friday. But as this one was not coming he went to a press conference tonight to speak his truth.

Of course, only Globovision was showing him, the other "independent" networks having been duly brow beaten by the regime last week with direct threats from Maduro (well, he threatened Televen, the only one that still shows on occasion real news). And yet the regime knows that when Capriles speaks people tune in to Globovision and maybe half of the country on TV is watching him. So the regime did the only thing they know to do: silence him. They suddenly played again the cadena of yesterday, cutting sharp Capriles press conference (reminder: a cadena is the forced commandeering by the state of ALL TV AND RADIO STATIONS for a simultaneous broadcast, with no right to reply for anyone, of course  not even on state TV late at night).

That way I could see that infamous cadena that I had missed for being at work. It certainly was infamous and show all the power of the state magnifying incidents that happen in any national election in Venezuela to the status of coup mongering and terrorism, all under the order of Capriles. Editing does wonders, you know.

Once the cadena was over (I am sparing you the details, in particular of the Peopl'e Ombudsman who clearly thinks that non chavistas are not people) Globovision went back to where Capriles left and this one, certainly expecting such a clumsy move, had already at hand all the material to discredit the cadena, while showing pictures of the tortured students and wondering whether the Venezuelan state prosecutor was also going to investigate these victims.

All of Capriles presentation was this forceful, tearing down one by one the mask of the CNE and Maduro, announcing that the elections had been stolen from him, that he did not care about the threats, that they should dare put him in jail, giving the CNE an ultimatum, while reminding that the new regime had still to do anything positive for the people in spite of being in office since last December 8.  He even found a way to totally humiliate Madruo while he replied to a journalist question about Maduro overreacting by putting to jail the heckler at his inauguration. "Ridiculo! No seas Bolsa" he said, which loosely translate as "you are ridiculous, do not be a nincompoop".  That heckler, by the way, having also crashed in the past a Chavez event and a Capriles one and even a Miss Venezuela. Needless to say that

#elpropiobolsa and #SeRobaronLasElecciones

became instant Twitter trends in Venezuela.

I cannot remember when a just elected president was ridiculed so fast, and given zero honey moon......

Of course this means that the ante are going up. But the regime is the one forcing the issue, overpalying its hands with lies and manipulations, unable to explain why ballots should not be audited properly even though the law allows for that.. Capriles ended up with an unassailable ploy: he called everyone to go to church next Sunday and pray for the country. But I doubt that this will slow down the inexorable march of the regime towards open violence.

Wednesday fluff post

Apparently I am between Nelson Mandela and François Hollande....  For fun I took a "political compass" test and unsurprising I came left/libertarian.


My score, I am not surprised and already through the test I knew where I was going to come out.  The thing is that maybe a few years ago, before Chavez screwed up my life and the one of millions other I may have ranked a little bit more closer to the center of the green square.



Now, the "result" of current leadership is more surprising to me. I suppose they did it based on their public positions as I do not see Obama or Chavez taking it. What is interesting here is that they could not find a world politician that would fall in the mauve square. And maybe, just maybe, is what the world needs....... someone less uptight on personal choices and more worried about truly balanced check books.

Chavismo has lost any democratic character, if it ever had one

One nice thing about Chavez was that we could measure the democratic content of chavismo by looking at him. Since on very rare instances Chavez had a democratic word, we could assume that perhaps inside chavismo there were people more democratic in nature than he was, that they were just repressed, closeted democrats, and that someday they would prevail.

We have been proven wrong: there is no democratic bone inside chavismo, and for all that I know, whatever democrats co existed inside may have been purged by 2007 at the latest.


A few days ago I reported on already two videos showing how public employees were prosecuted just under any suspicion that they may not be ardent supporters of Maduro. Things have been getting worse this week as reports come from all around the country of massive purges inside the public sector (1). I am not going to go into the many details, limiting myself to what is becoming viral, the video from Ricardo Molina saying that in his "habitat and housing" ministry he will personally fire whoever does not resign because of their support of Capriles. Nothing new really, you may say, but in the video, besides wearing the new fascist arm band of Venezuela, Molina says that he does not give a shit about Venezuelan labor laws. He will proceed as he wants, period.



This, my friends, even if you cannot understand Spanish, is the portrait of fascism in Venezuela; the look, the manners, the violence. It is all there, he just needs to get started. And he surely will get his chance because even after this speech Maduro CONFIRMED in in his ministerial job......

And yet that is not all.  Iris Varela, the crazed minster for Venezuela jail system, at which she has dismally failed but to which she was ratified by Maduro this week end, decided today that she had a cell space for Capriles. In an official capacity she extended herself lengthily on how she was going to put Capriles in jail, on how she was preparing one adequate for him,  where noting would happen to him. Amazingly implying that she did not control jails but she could control parts of them. The woman was putting herself as accuser, judge, jury and warden. Fascism again, let's not be shy with words here.

And yet, Maduro having already two minsters who should be fired without any contemplation dares to call for "dialogue". But you should see the quality of that dialogue. First, he names a commission of three to talk. They are Diosdado Cabello who slammed down the microphones at the National Assembly, Jorge Arreaza, the Chavez son in law reputed as the leader of the pro Castro radical left and Cilia Flores, his "wife in waiting", who has had a distinguished career in making life miserable to anyone that disagreed with them. Really, Nicolas......

And yet it is not all: Maduro will not talk with Capriles, only those inside the opposition that do not agree with the ultra neoliberal right wing model or some similar adjectives. He will talk to them individually, not even as a dissident group. So there goes the strategy: Capriles is the head honcho so we need to weaken him by prying a few away, buying them as needed I suppose, until propaganda can work out some form of claim that he is not the leader of the opposition. The final objective is clear: to liquidate politically Capriles the way they did with Rosales in 2007.  But times have changed and this time erasing Capriles is not going to be enough.

I wonder what else is needed among some of those supporters of chavismo that still persist in trying to make us believe that Venezuela is a healthy democracy (here and here for the latest inanities that were sent to me today alone).

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1- One thing also needs to be mentioned: not only the private sector is cutting down on its work force because of the crisis, but the public sector is also doing it. See, there is just no money anymore, and economic activity is expected to take a major hit this year. I suppose that it is also part of the calculation of the regime, to fire as many people as they can under political excuses so as not to admit lay off for economic policy failure. It sounds crazy, it is very clumsy, but these people are losing it fast.....

France versus Venezuela: human rights in and human rights out

Today the French parliament gave its final vote for the "mariage pour tous", all can marry who they want.  Today the Venezuelan parliament did not reopen its doors because its head, Diosdado Cabello, refuses to give the microphone to whomever does not agree with him.  In France civilization keeps advancing, as both right and left booed out a heckler trying to unfurl an idiotic banner in the last vote. In Venezuela hecklers are encouraged if they bitch at the opposition, and when necessary chavismo representatives hit opposition representatives with a microphone, leaving gashes requiring many stitches.  In Venezuela the regime tries to force the acceptation of a fraudulent election whereas in France many in the right who voted against the law declare already that they will apply it and look forward performing their first gay wedding.

Meanwhile on May 2 the S.O. and I will have been together for 14 years and we are looking forward a wedding at the French embassy this late fall.

The April 14 2013 results: chavismo loses the metro areas, often big time

The more noteworthy result of Sunday 14 is that with electoral cheating and all, the regime admits that it has lost the control of the major urban agglomerations. That is, the victory of Maduro, if we can call that a victory, comes from places with less than a few dozen thousand folks. These places are much likely to depend on state largess for their survival (Misiones) whereas urban centers dispose of more qualified workers, more artisans, more professional  trades, more educated people and also more "rich" people, but now a relative minority in the new coalition the opposition is building.

In other words, what we have been seeing for a long time: the more educated people are, the more dependent they are on their skills and hard work to make a living, the less likely they are to vote for Chavez, or his heirs for that matter. Let's look out now at the numbers.


For this I took the numbers of Capriles (democrats) and Maduro (chavismo) the rest being, well, irrelevant.  I excluded the following states: Nueva Esparta because it is essentially urban now and as expected Capriles took it without trouble even though Morel was kicked out last December; Delta Amacuro and Amazonas because they have special conditions and their urban center is sort of urban; and Guarico which is a large state with two urban centers and some smaller ones but all too distant from the rest of the state to have any meaning as I intend for this report.  In other words I have chosen the cities or metro areas which are prominent in a given state and which can exert a certain influence in the rest of the state. All in thousand of votes.

In no particular order let's start with the Andes region. There Capriles easily carried Tachira and Merida and did progress significantly in Trujillo. In fact the main city, to which I added the close but more rural Carvajal is a score for the democrats. Merida state has two urban areas, and in both Capriles won, the victory in El Vigia being rather important for the future as Merida/Ejido were already solidly on the democrat side. In Tachira it is difficult to really establish a metro area as the state is rather densely settled, and a lot close to the Colombian border. Thus arbitrarily I settled for the districts that include San Cristobal and Tariba on the North. Very ample victory here for Capriles even though the state was surprisingly lost last December.

Andes Metro areas

Let's move on to the Llanos now. As expected all was carried by chavismo except for an interesting surprise  heavy with symbolism and implications for the future: Barinas capital, Barinas, was taken over solidly by Capriles. The home state of Chavez did not embrace his appointed successor....

The few "metro" areas of Llanos

Let's move now to the vote rich central states of Aragua and Carabobo. As expected Maduro prevailed in Aragua but the Maracay metro area went this time solidly for the democrats. The threat to jail P.J. Representative Nardo has backfired.  Carabobo is an interesting case because lost in December it was barely lost a week ago and it is one of the states where most irregularities are being reported  as I understand at this writing. Here I have separated Valencia from its belt and in both Capriles won.  This is very significant because it means that even heavy chavista areas like Tocuyito were not the vote reservoir they were supposed to be for chavismo.  As for Valencia itself I am a little bit surprised, expecting a wider margin for Capriles. But that is probably due to the divisive inheritance of the Salas, not settled yet.

Carabobo Aragua metro areas. Greater Valencia includes Naguanagua, San Diego, etc...

And now on to the greater Caracas, the plat de résistence.
In yellow the Caracas proper metro area. No surprise here except that I was expecting a tie in Libertador. Apparently the blackmail on public employees worked out. What is important to note here is that the two districts rich in slums, Libertador and Petare (Sucre) give a tie together, showing clearly if you needed further proof that the message of the opposition is climbing the hills, slowly but surely.
In green, and in three parts, what I qualify as the Greater Caracas includes the dormitory cities of Caracas, those that have a rail line for commuters (Charallave/Cua), and those who show humongous lines one way or the other at rush hour. Overall as expected there is a chavismo victory there but a weakened one. If Vargas is still solid, the loss of Los Teques will have consequences. Guatire itself is finishing its final crossing over, probably next election, a possible major blow to chavismo.
Thus, the "big Caracas", the sum of Metro and Greater is now becoming solid opposition.

Caracas metro in yellow, Caracas outer districts in military green; Big Caracas in orange is the sum of the two.

And now on to "Oriente" and Bolivar which in October I thought would be the key of the election, a must win for Capriles. Well, he almost made it. True, Nuevas Esparta as indicated above went for Capriles, but Monagas and Sucre remained in the hands of chavismo though an explanation can be offered for Cumana where the local Voluntad Poplar under threat of jail defected to chavismo, possibly explaining the narrow victory of Maduro there. Nor is the victory in Maturin worth writing home about it....  The Bolivar state result is the most interesting. Apparently the fraud accusations of last December must have resonated since now Capriles carried the state and its two principal districts, Ciudad Bolivar now long held by the opposition and Puerto Ordaz making the switch.

Oriente and Bolivar metro areas

To finish this entry let's go back tot he occidental part of the country.  There, only Falcon has two urban areas, Coro and Punto Fijo which I have enhanced somewhat with the next door district. One now is solidly democrat whereas the politicized employees of PDVSA still retain Punto Fijo.  In Lara the new coalition led by Henry Falcon keeps advancing. The metro of Barquisimeto and Cabudare are now solidly in the hands of the democrats and chavismo can kiss goodbye the mayor office of Irribarren district.  And finally my home district in Yaracuy, a curious amalgam of small districts for a metro area which used to come out even but now returns to the opposition.

Lara and neighbors. Barquisimeto metro includes Cabudare district.

And for the last item, Zulia, inconceivably lost last December. Well, people have regrets.  Not only Maracaibo is a resounding victory for Capriles but its Southern portion, San Francisco with a very militant chavista mayor, went over! For the sake of it I include Costa Oriental which include three districts around Cabimas, not fully urban in union but linked through interests. There the democrats confirm their ascendancy.

Zulia two metro areas, Maracaibo +San Francisco and the three main districts across the bridge

Final result: chavismo 3.995K democrats 4.641K, summing up all the districts above. More than 600K votes advantage Capriles. Three times the alleged Maduro overall advantage nationwide. Draw your own conclusions if you wish.