A little bit busy these days so I will be fast.
The regime tried to force through an "economic emergency decree" which was a mere diktat to make communism a reality in 60 days. You could read it all here, before most pundits tired to think about it, or worse, to pretend that there was some redeeming value somewhere. Usually pundits from brainy places like Forbes who can only think about a return on an investment that they were foolish enough to give to a country whose bloggers were active and announcing disaster since 2003. But I digress.
Since everyone knew that this was a mere propaganda ploy to try to put the blame of the crisis on the opposition (a mere trap Castro style), the Assembly majority MUD organized the only response it could do for the time being: call for hearings knowing they would be stood up. This was very simple to get because the Assembly decided that the hearings should be open to the press like it happens in EVERY democracy on earth unless it is about national security, as in ISIS about to bomb you. But apparently the state of bankruptcy of the nation is such that it cannot be revealed in public. Thus the ministers use that excuse to bail out at the last minute. Score 1 to 1 on propaganda. And I am generous to the regime.
The parliamentary commission named to inquire on the decree ruled that without economic data, that without at least announcing some the of the expected measures to be taken (the decree had no specifics) the emergency could not be approved. The following full debate today pointed out among other things that the country had been ruled by chavismo through 17 years, and that there had been enough enabling laws to emit enough decree laws for the regime to deal with whatever it needed to deal with. The emergency decree was thus duly voted down. The government was welcome to send in new and more explicit proposals and they will be speedily examined. And that is that.
Now what?
I am not sure what leverage the regime got out of that wrestling match. Probably some, there were enough idiots that though the national assembly would open the gates to cheap and abundant corn flour. But me thinks that those who voted for the opposition MUD in December knew exactly why they voted for them and hot air from the regime is not going to play much if actually some stuff does not appears on the shelves soon. Period. After all, they have been used to abundant freebies for years coming from Chavez. If then, why not know? Why not for the last two years? If the "economic war" cannot be won by Maduro maybe, just maybe, he should be replaced by one that can win it. No?
The fact of the matter is elsewhere. The regime has no idea what to do and I can vouch for that. Many clients and providers have been summoned to many meetings in recent days. Hysteria grows by the day. To give you an example, one of them told me that they got an urgent mail from ministry X to send them in 24 hours a list of what they could start exporting as soon as possible so the permits could be processed fast. Without inquiring about the supplies and dollars they would need to be able to produce enough for the local market to then be able to export.......... [sigh, deep sigh.... shit like that does not appear in economic pages, just in blogs].
So the regime tries to blame the opposition and the janitor and his dog.
But no matter what, the reality is there. In my opinion default is unavoidable because there is no money to pay what needs to be paid this year EVEN if oil were to go back up to, say, 35 USD a barrel by fall. Even starving Venezuelans will not avoid default AND allow at the same time to send Cuba whatever meager allowance can still be sent. Maduro and Cabello and Padrino can refuse to visit the National Assembly, and close it, and send the MUD representatives to the execution wall, that reality is not going to change. What needs to change is the economic system but any change is impossible because the regime would unravel in weeks.
The question is not whether Venezuela is going to the IMF, but when. There is nowhere else to go at this point.
Of course there might be those who think that PODEMOS in Spain or Correa in Ecuador or Evo in Bolivia are going to come and bail us out. Bwahahahahah.....
So I feel good tonight because I read this whole week as getting us close to the end. Whatever the end is, it cannot be postponed much longer. Just go and visit a grocery store.
Friday, 22 January 2016
Wednesday, 20 January 2016
Where to start?
The economic emergency decree?
As readers already know this decree is a fraud and cannot be accepted as presented. The Assembly knows it is a vulgar trap to try to put the blame of the crisis on the opposition (which will not work chavismo is misreading the whole thing badly). So the opposition will examine the decree, and will reject it based on some of its glaring lacks suggesting politely that the regime reviews it.
Then we will see what happens. The only good thing that may come from this confrontation is that it may be a fake one used while the real negotiations take place behind closed door.
Presidential commission to solve the crisis?
Yesterday Maduro summoned hundreds of people to an act at the Teresa Carreño, once upon a time the show room of Chavez. Now Maduro need to summon people to fill it up. This being said the top of the private sector still alive was requested to attend, and came. As if they had another option. And out of the proceeding Maduro named a few commissions where an occasional objective person was sit. These commissions are supposed to draft the measures around 9 motors of the economy to get us out of the crisis,.
Nobody explained where the dollars would come from.
I am not holding my breath.
Is Merentes an oriental sheikh?
The scandal defraying tabloids is that Merentes beach home has been robbed. He was alleviated for 300.000 USD, about 50.000 euros and a few expensive watches. Nothing more. The robbers need not break in, they had the keys and wore masks as they had been told about surveillance cameras, The first question is of course: what the fuck is the president of the Central Bank of Venezuela doing with 300.000 USD in his beach appartement? Does he not know of a safe bank where to deposit that?
But it gets better: Merentes is not pressing charges, Records are diligently erased and what we know comes from press investigations who get the police sorces to speak, Apparently Merentes is a patron of his hometown of Naiguata. Many surgeries, home fixing, pot holing come through his intercession. The medical part is more interesting as it seems that several of surgeries were not of a nature to save a life threatening condition. Young girls under age got significant "enhancements" and became mistresses of Merentes for a short while. I suppose until the next one was fully healed. It is possible that the silence, perhaps even accomplice, of the parents was bought.
And Merentes would have been robbed several times but this time it was a little bit too much and he could not hide it as well. One of the girl, probably a favorite lasting more than the usual even got a set of the keys for convenience so she could get ready for action as soon as Merentes arrived from Caracas.
The question here is which is the worst criminal offense: pedophilia or smuggling illegal amounts of foreign currency that he helped himself out from the Central Bank reserves. In Venezuela morality and ethics are distorted.
Torture of women?
IF all of this was not bad enough get ready for the worst. In her latest visit to Leopoldo Lopez in jail his wife, Lilian Tintori, and Lopez's mother were sent to a different room where they were forced to get naked in front of their kids. Lilian was on the rag and she had to take it off and show to a guard. The director of the center a little while later published an evangelical psalm. He is a christian, you know.
It is to be noted that such a physical abuse made with an excruciatingly lengthy care by female guards (it is my own personal experience that female military are in general way worse than the male ones) is designed to also create psychological damage and it is hence a form of torture.
And that is exactly what happened, OAS secretary Almagro condemned what was done to Lilian Tintori. Though if you read a pro chavismo canard like Panorma, they do cite the tweet of Almagro but in the title you read "reproach", not condemn. Note: Almagro is not the lone international voice criticizing. Only the regime seems to ignore the gravitas that Lilian Tintori has gained.
Conclusion?
The regime is going to keep its show and dance until the end, and at any chance it will play dirty. There are already fake videos presented by Cabello trying to exculpate the commandeer of Ramo Verde where Lopez is jailed.
There are certain red lines that the regime simply cannot accept to yield on: an amnesty law; punishing an abusive military; impunity for high officials is a must; the economic crisis is going to be solved by us and no one else, even if we created it which everyone of course knows they cannot solve anything anymore; the USD are ours to do as we please.
Now, tell me, where do we start dialogue there?
--------------------
The tweet from another president supporter to Tintori: Laura Chinchilla
As readers already know this decree is a fraud and cannot be accepted as presented. The Assembly knows it is a vulgar trap to try to put the blame of the crisis on the opposition (which will not work chavismo is misreading the whole thing badly). So the opposition will examine the decree, and will reject it based on some of its glaring lacks suggesting politely that the regime reviews it.
Then we will see what happens. The only good thing that may come from this confrontation is that it may be a fake one used while the real negotiations take place behind closed door.
Presidential commission to solve the crisis?
Yesterday Maduro summoned hundreds of people to an act at the Teresa Carreño, once upon a time the show room of Chavez. Now Maduro need to summon people to fill it up. This being said the top of the private sector still alive was requested to attend, and came. As if they had another option. And out of the proceeding Maduro named a few commissions where an occasional objective person was sit. These commissions are supposed to draft the measures around 9 motors of the economy to get us out of the crisis,.
Nobody explained where the dollars would come from.
I am not holding my breath.
Is Merentes an oriental sheikh?
The scandal defraying tabloids is that Merentes beach home has been robbed. He was alleviated for 300.000 USD, about 50.000 euros and a few expensive watches. Nothing more. The robbers need not break in, they had the keys and wore masks as they had been told about surveillance cameras, The first question is of course: what the fuck is the president of the Central Bank of Venezuela doing with 300.000 USD in his beach appartement? Does he not know of a safe bank where to deposit that?
But it gets better: Merentes is not pressing charges, Records are diligently erased and what we know comes from press investigations who get the police sorces to speak, Apparently Merentes is a patron of his hometown of Naiguata. Many surgeries, home fixing, pot holing come through his intercession. The medical part is more interesting as it seems that several of surgeries were not of a nature to save a life threatening condition. Young girls under age got significant "enhancements" and became mistresses of Merentes for a short while. I suppose until the next one was fully healed. It is possible that the silence, perhaps even accomplice, of the parents was bought.
And Merentes would have been robbed several times but this time it was a little bit too much and he could not hide it as well. One of the girl, probably a favorite lasting more than the usual even got a set of the keys for convenience so she could get ready for action as soon as Merentes arrived from Caracas.
The question here is which is the worst criminal offense: pedophilia or smuggling illegal amounts of foreign currency that he helped himself out from the Central Bank reserves. In Venezuela morality and ethics are distorted.
Torture of women?
IF all of this was not bad enough get ready for the worst. In her latest visit to Leopoldo Lopez in jail his wife, Lilian Tintori, and Lopez's mother were sent to a different room where they were forced to get naked in front of their kids. Lilian was on the rag and she had to take it off and show to a guard. The director of the center a little while later published an evangelical psalm. He is a christian, you know.
It is to be noted that such a physical abuse made with an excruciatingly lengthy care by female guards (it is my own personal experience that female military are in general way worse than the male ones) is designed to also create psychological damage and it is hence a form of torture.
And that is exactly what happened, OAS secretary Almagro condemned what was done to Lilian Tintori. Though if you read a pro chavismo canard like Panorma, they do cite the tweet of Almagro but in the title you read "reproach", not condemn. Note: Almagro is not the lone international voice criticizing. Only the regime seems to ignore the gravitas that Lilian Tintori has gained.
Conclusion?
The regime is going to keep its show and dance until the end, and at any chance it will play dirty. There are already fake videos presented by Cabello trying to exculpate the commandeer of Ramo Verde where Lopez is jailed.
There are certain red lines that the regime simply cannot accept to yield on: an amnesty law; punishing an abusive military; impunity for high officials is a must; the economic crisis is going to be solved by us and no one else, even if we created it which everyone of course knows they cannot solve anything anymore; the USD are ours to do as we please.
Now, tell me, where do we start dialogue there?
--------------------
The tweet from another president supporter to Tintori: Laura Chinchilla
Sólo los COBARDES, son valientes contra los indefensos. Estamos con @liliantintori#Venezuela #ultraje #repudio pic.twitter.com/6yvI4h3mMh— Laura Chinchilla M (@Laura_Ch) January 19, 2016
Sunday, 17 January 2016
La mendacidad de Elias Jaua
Es con usted, diputado Jaua
Leo su respuesta a lo que usted llama "infame el editorial de El Nacional".
Yo no voy a entrar en el debate de si la diputada Tamara Adrian oyó lo que ella oyó. Ella sabrá defenderse; y muy bien lo hará porque ella no tuvo nunca los apoyos que usted tuvo y que le permitieron tirar piedras toda su vida quedando impune.
Tampoco voy a especular si la diputada Adriana D'Elia es una lesbiana. Eso es irrelevante, y ni me importa como a usted no debería importarle lo que la gente hace con su vida privada mientras no afecte a otros. Le recuerdo que su vida privada si afecta a otros cuando, por ejemplo, usted hace que la República cubra los costos de viaje de su niñera bien armada.
Le escribo porque leo en su respuesta a El Nacional estas cosas:
Lei bien el editorial de El Nacional al cual usted se refiere y no veo donde ellos hacen mención de su raza o de su clase. A menos que eso esté implicado, en su criterio, por las palabras "hombre nuevo" y "encapuchamiento". Si es así le ruego me explique porque yo lo desconozco. En cuanto al odio sistemático no estaría de más que usted lo sustente porque a mi me parece que bastante gente ha criticado sus acciones, sistemáticamente. En eso El Nacional no tendría ningún privilegio. Como figura pública le recomiendo que en esta nueva era se vaya acostumbrando de una buena vez a la crítica sin tomarla personalmente.
Cuando usted escribe que respeta a la diputada D'Elia "como ser humano" usted me va a disculpar pero eso disminuye su credibilidad. Respetar como ser humano es lo menos que se le exige a quien sea, y más que eso a un diputado de la República. Es su deber respetar a la gente como personas, no solamente como seres humanos. Es su deber dar el respeto que usted exige para si mismo.
Acusar a Ramos Allup de homofóbico no resuelve su problema. Que él lo sea no le puede servir en ningún caso de excusa. Entiendo que la mentalidad del chavismo es echarle la culpa a quien sea de sus errores, sea la cuarta república, sea el imperio y se quien sabe que otra bobada como la fulana guerra económica. Pero los errores al final son suyos y usted tiene que asumirlos. El asunto aquí es que su credibilidad esta anulada de antemano por pertenecer a una corriente política de tendencia homofóbica muy bien documentada. ¿Se recordará usted del infame "patiquines maricones de Primero Justica" lanzado por Juan Barreto en el 2004? ¿O las constantes alusiones gay en contra de Henrique Capriles durante las campañas de 2012 y 2013? Sin hablar de la campaña de Cabello contra Mendoza en Miranda donde con sorna el argumentaba Cabello que por fin Miranda tendría primera dama. Sin referirme al historial de la prensa, solamente en mi blog la etiqueta "homofóbia" le conducirá a una serie de artículos donde explico mi posición sobre la homofóbia chavista, empezando en julio del 2004.
Pero personalmente lo que a mi más me molestó en su respuesta a el Nacional fue la ultima parte porque a mi, personalmente, me consta que eso es mentira, que usted no cree en la igualdad ciudadana. Reconozco que siendo yo "sexo diverso", parece que la palabra gay no le gusta a su gente ya que prefieren lo genérico en aras de castigar mas fácilmente lo específico, no he luchado como hubiese debido hacerlo. Pero mi lucha tuvo que ser primero para los valores de todos, desde la libertad de prensa e información hasta la libertad de disfrutar del esfuerzo de mi trabajo. ¿De que me sirven derechos gay si los derechos humanos básicos de la constitución del 99 ni se cumplen y menos se respetan?
Lo que a mi me ha dolido en lo personal leyendo su respuesta es que cuando usted era canciller de la república bolivariana se emitió un comunicado a las embajadas de los países que reconocían las uniones y matrimonios igualitarios prohibiendo tramitar dichas uniones. Aunque sean entre ciudadanos de estos países. Ni siquiera explicando a los venezolanos casándose con un ciudadano de estos países que ese matrimonio/unión no tenia validez alguna en Venezuela. Tengo doble nacionalidad pero no he podido hacer beneficiar a mi pareja de dos décadas de ventajas que podría ofrecerle a través de mi otro pais porque Venezuela no solamente lo prohibe pero no ofrece esas ventajas. Ustedes ni lavan ni prestan la batea.
Por lo tanto, para mi, su concepto de igualdad ciudadana no existe. A menos que sea que todos hagamos cola para poder comer, aunque de seguro tampoco eso se aplica a usted y su familia.
Le sugiero diputado Jaua que usted empiece por disculparse y a actuar como diputado para promover lo que usted nunca quiso hacer cuando podía hacerlo como ministro. Es justicia. ¿O será que se escudará con el "cristiano [...] que profeso"" para también justificar su homofóbia e intolerancia?
----------------------
Nota: observo que El Nacional publicó su respuesta, su derecho a replica, privilegio que nadie ofendido por VTV o cualquier medio del gobierno. Medios pagados con los impuestos de todos, le recuerdo.
Leo su respuesta a lo que usted llama "infame el editorial de El Nacional".
Yo no voy a entrar en el debate de si la diputada Tamara Adrian oyó lo que ella oyó. Ella sabrá defenderse; y muy bien lo hará porque ella no tuvo nunca los apoyos que usted tuvo y que le permitieron tirar piedras toda su vida quedando impune.
Tampoco voy a especular si la diputada Adriana D'Elia es una lesbiana. Eso es irrelevante, y ni me importa como a usted no debería importarle lo que la gente hace con su vida privada mientras no afecte a otros. Le recuerdo que su vida privada si afecta a otros cuando, por ejemplo, usted hace que la República cubra los costos de viaje de su niñera bien armada.
Le escribo porque leo en su respuesta a El Nacional estas cosas:
"los dueños de El Nacional otra vez desatan su odio sistemático contra mi persona"El problema es que para decir tales cosas uno necesita tener credibilidad y usted no la tiene.
"desarrollan sus prejuicios raciales y de clase en mi contra"
"No he proferido insulto, y mucho menos de carácter homofóbico,contra la diputada Adriana D'Elia a quien respeto como ser humano"
"Nunca he hecho uso de la palabra 'mariposones' acuñada [...]por el diputado Henry Ramos Allup para referirse a los dirigentes del partido Primero Justicia. ¿Quien es el homofóbico?"
"mi reconocimiento, basado en el principio constitucional de la igualdad ciudadana, a sus derechos pero sobre todo en el valor humano y cristiano [...] que profeso"
Lei bien el editorial de El Nacional al cual usted se refiere y no veo donde ellos hacen mención de su raza o de su clase. A menos que eso esté implicado, en su criterio, por las palabras "hombre nuevo" y "encapuchamiento". Si es así le ruego me explique porque yo lo desconozco. En cuanto al odio sistemático no estaría de más que usted lo sustente porque a mi me parece que bastante gente ha criticado sus acciones, sistemáticamente. En eso El Nacional no tendría ningún privilegio. Como figura pública le recomiendo que en esta nueva era se vaya acostumbrando de una buena vez a la crítica sin tomarla personalmente.
Cuando usted escribe que respeta a la diputada D'Elia "como ser humano" usted me va a disculpar pero eso disminuye su credibilidad. Respetar como ser humano es lo menos que se le exige a quien sea, y más que eso a un diputado de la República. Es su deber respetar a la gente como personas, no solamente como seres humanos. Es su deber dar el respeto que usted exige para si mismo.
Acusar a Ramos Allup de homofóbico no resuelve su problema. Que él lo sea no le puede servir en ningún caso de excusa. Entiendo que la mentalidad del chavismo es echarle la culpa a quien sea de sus errores, sea la cuarta república, sea el imperio y se quien sabe que otra bobada como la fulana guerra económica. Pero los errores al final son suyos y usted tiene que asumirlos. El asunto aquí es que su credibilidad esta anulada de antemano por pertenecer a una corriente política de tendencia homofóbica muy bien documentada. ¿Se recordará usted del infame "patiquines maricones de Primero Justica" lanzado por Juan Barreto en el 2004? ¿O las constantes alusiones gay en contra de Henrique Capriles durante las campañas de 2012 y 2013? Sin hablar de la campaña de Cabello contra Mendoza en Miranda donde con sorna el argumentaba Cabello que por fin Miranda tendría primera dama. Sin referirme al historial de la prensa, solamente en mi blog la etiqueta "homofóbia" le conducirá a una serie de artículos donde explico mi posición sobre la homofóbia chavista, empezando en julio del 2004.
Pero personalmente lo que a mi más me molestó en su respuesta a el Nacional fue la ultima parte porque a mi, personalmente, me consta que eso es mentira, que usted no cree en la igualdad ciudadana. Reconozco que siendo yo "sexo diverso", parece que la palabra gay no le gusta a su gente ya que prefieren lo genérico en aras de castigar mas fácilmente lo específico, no he luchado como hubiese debido hacerlo. Pero mi lucha tuvo que ser primero para los valores de todos, desde la libertad de prensa e información hasta la libertad de disfrutar del esfuerzo de mi trabajo. ¿De que me sirven derechos gay si los derechos humanos básicos de la constitución del 99 ni se cumplen y menos se respetan?
Lo que a mi me ha dolido en lo personal leyendo su respuesta es que cuando usted era canciller de la república bolivariana se emitió un comunicado a las embajadas de los países que reconocían las uniones y matrimonios igualitarios prohibiendo tramitar dichas uniones. Aunque sean entre ciudadanos de estos países. Ni siquiera explicando a los venezolanos casándose con un ciudadano de estos países que ese matrimonio/unión no tenia validez alguna en Venezuela. Tengo doble nacionalidad pero no he podido hacer beneficiar a mi pareja de dos décadas de ventajas que podría ofrecerle a través de mi otro pais porque Venezuela no solamente lo prohibe pero no ofrece esas ventajas. Ustedes ni lavan ni prestan la batea.
Por lo tanto, para mi, su concepto de igualdad ciudadana no existe. A menos que sea que todos hagamos cola para poder comer, aunque de seguro tampoco eso se aplica a usted y su familia.
Le sugiero diputado Jaua que usted empiece por disculparse y a actuar como diputado para promover lo que usted nunca quiso hacer cuando podía hacerlo como ministro. Es justicia. ¿O será que se escudará con el "cristiano [...] que profeso"" para también justificar su homofóbia e intolerancia?
----------------------
Nota: observo que El Nacional publicó su respuesta, su derecho a replica, privilegio que nadie ofendido por VTV o cualquier medio del gobierno. Medios pagados con los impuestos de todos, le recuerdo.
Saturday, 16 January 2016
Argentina and Uruguay to investigate business with Venezuela
Long time faithful reader Milonga from Uruguay has finally accepted to send me a note about what is going on down South with all these elections going on. There is her great article. Enjoy and thank her. Note: we had the pleasure to read her in the past.
--------------------------------------------
They say all roads take you to Rome. Well, here in Latin America, all roads lead you to Chavez.
When Mauricio Macri was elected, Argentineans started to find out some of the comings and goings of the Kirchner government. For example, take this poultry farm called Red Crest (Cresta Roja), which just went bankrupt and fired 300 workers. It exported to Venezuela and received a 650 dollar subsidy for each ton exported. Also, they were paid by the government for selling their produce underpriced to the local market. And gave them billionaire credits which they can´t pay back to the Bicentenary Bank, due to the fact that Venezuela is not paying its debts. So, in spite of all these benefits, it went broke. Money loaned went to pay for the K political campaign, not to cover up for Venezuelan lack of payment. They did not count on losing the election.
This is just one example. There are many others. And the new Government has vowed to look into them, including Antonini Wilson´s dollar-packed suitcase.
On the other side of the River Plate, a Parliamentary Investigation in Uruguay dealing with the state-owned petrol monopoly – ANCAP, has also lighted red lights in the opposition, as well as public opinion. The company has a deficit of more than one billion dollars and most of them are directly or indirectly connected to business with Venezuela. That´s a lot of money for a small country like Uruguay, with a 3 million population.
In the meantime, the opposition has also found out that the main spokesperson with Venezuela is Daniel Placeres, newly elected to the House of Representatives by the Popular Participation Movement (MPP, for its initials in Spanish), Mujica´s party. Not only that, he actually lives in Mujica´s ranch. During the past three years, Placeres admits visiting Caracas for 85 times. Of course he denies influence peddling, but that is hard to believe. He´s just a cover-up for Mujica himself. A percentage of all trade between Uruguay and Venezuela goes to the MPP chests. During these trips he was received personally by Maduro at his Miraflores offices. This is not a normal procedure for ordinary businessmen doing trade. So you’ll be hearing about Aire Fresco S.A. (Fresh Air) in the nearby future. That’s the name of the trade company that was created for business with Venezuela.
The National opposition party is in an “investigative vigil”. Relationship with Venezuela has been a constant worry for the Party, both politically and commercially. After this summer truce, one expects next year to be complicated. Circumstances avail that.
This audio in Spanish explains some of the matters that are being considered. An article in the Panam Post in English will give you a further insight into this problem.
Godfather
Just before the Parliamentary elections in Venezuela, General Padrino came To Montevideo for an official Mercosur meeting of Defense ministers. He took a day off to spend some hours with Mujica at his now famous ranch.
Since the meaning of “padrino” in Spanish is Godfather, I associate that figure as Pepe Mujica´s role in Bolivarian world. One presumes that their talk was to build post-electoral strategies, since the tweet that came up from that meeting is till echoing:
Meaning: “In Venezuela there´s an excess of democracy and the Revolution must go on with perseverance and discipline”.
Such hypocrisy and double standards! We all know these characters cannot afford to open the Pandora´s box that would disclose their corruption. It would be the fall of the Berlin wall all over again.
Milonga
Montevideo, 15th January, 2016.
--------------------------------------------
They say all roads take you to Rome. Well, here in Latin America, all roads lead you to Chavez.
When Mauricio Macri was elected, Argentineans started to find out some of the comings and goings of the Kirchner government. For example, take this poultry farm called Red Crest (Cresta Roja), which just went bankrupt and fired 300 workers. It exported to Venezuela and received a 650 dollar subsidy for each ton exported. Also, they were paid by the government for selling their produce underpriced to the local market. And gave them billionaire credits which they can´t pay back to the Bicentenary Bank, due to the fact that Venezuela is not paying its debts. So, in spite of all these benefits, it went broke. Money loaned went to pay for the K political campaign, not to cover up for Venezuelan lack of payment. They did not count on losing the election.
This is just one example. There are many others. And the new Government has vowed to look into them, including Antonini Wilson´s dollar-packed suitcase.
On the other side of the River Plate, a Parliamentary Investigation in Uruguay dealing with the state-owned petrol monopoly – ANCAP, has also lighted red lights in the opposition, as well as public opinion. The company has a deficit of more than one billion dollars and most of them are directly or indirectly connected to business with Venezuela. That´s a lot of money for a small country like Uruguay, with a 3 million population.
In the meantime, the opposition has also found out that the main spokesperson with Venezuela is Daniel Placeres, newly elected to the House of Representatives by the Popular Participation Movement (MPP, for its initials in Spanish), Mujica´s party. Not only that, he actually lives in Mujica´s ranch. During the past three years, Placeres admits visiting Caracas for 85 times. Of course he denies influence peddling, but that is hard to believe. He´s just a cover-up for Mujica himself. A percentage of all trade between Uruguay and Venezuela goes to the MPP chests. During these trips he was received personally by Maduro at his Miraflores offices. This is not a normal procedure for ordinary businessmen doing trade. So you’ll be hearing about Aire Fresco S.A. (Fresh Air) in the nearby future. That’s the name of the trade company that was created for business with Venezuela.
The National opposition party is in an “investigative vigil”. Relationship with Venezuela has been a constant worry for the Party, both politically and commercially. After this summer truce, one expects next year to be complicated. Circumstances avail that.
This audio in Spanish explains some of the matters that are being considered. An article in the Panam Post in English will give you a further insight into this problem.
Godfather
Just before the Parliamentary elections in Venezuela, General Padrino came To Montevideo for an official Mercosur meeting of Defense ministers. He took a day off to spend some hours with Mujica at his now famous ranch.
Since the meaning of “padrino” in Spanish is Godfather, I associate that figure as Pepe Mujica´s role in Bolivarian world. One presumes that their talk was to build post-electoral strategies, since the tweet that came up from that meeting is till echoing:
Meaning: “In Venezuela there´s an excess of democracy and the Revolution must go on with perseverance and discipline”.
Such hypocrisy and double standards! We all know these characters cannot afford to open the Pandora´s box that would disclose their corruption. It would be the fall of the Berlin wall all over again.
Milonga
Montevideo, 15th January, 2016.
Friday, 15 January 2016
Extraordinarily newsworthy day in the battle for democracy
I thought already when I was writing the communism decree that the regime wants to pass would be quite something already for a single day. I even started publishing it before I finished or corrected such was my state of discombobulation. But tonight there is yet two more news, maybe more important because that decree can still be rejected by the Assembly. But apparently there are bigger fishes to fry.
President Maduro finally came tonight for his state of the Union. The speech was long, vapid, misleading when not blurting outrageous lies when vaunting the "successes" of 2015. The excitement came through the fact that he showed up when a few days ago it seemed that the rebelliousness of Diosdado Cabello with the support of some judges could carry the day and send the Assembly into nothingness. This can still happen but I have big doubts tonight about it ever happening.
The Assembly "caved in" and suspended for a while the controversial representatives and thus Cabello and the Court had no other option but to recognize the validity of the Assembly for the time being. Thus showeth up Maduro.
All fine and dandy. The speech is given in cadena, that is, simultaneous mandatory broadcast on all audio visual media. ALL. Important detail for later. The speech lasted for over two jours but I only connected to it through the end, following it on tweeter before (see my time line for highlights in Spanish or English according to assumed public, on the right side of this blog).
Maduro said nothing besides his usual assortment of insults and what not. Yet he seemed rather subdued, a little bit lost. At the end, as expected, he handed the microphone to Ramos Allup as chair of the Assembly which we would have thought would limit himself to pronounce the protocolar farewell. It was not. Ramos Allup launched himself in a big speech.
Now, why was this speech so important, well managed by the way considering the ordeal that today must have been for him today?
You need to know that just like in the US, all powers are represented (5 in Venezuela, 4 of them clapping at any inanity of Maduro; in the US no Justice would be caught dead applauding a president at SOTU!). You need to know that when Ramos Allup took over the cadena continued and the state TV, VTV,which was the only one allowed to transmit live on airwaves remained fixed on Ramos Allup the whole time, probably waiting for the order to cut off, an order that never came. It was the first time in 17 years that the country saw a cadena by someone else than a chavista stating the official line. Thus the fixation and the novelty gave more reach to Ramos Allup than he may have deserved.
Of course the response of Ramos Allup was civil but frequently mischievous in pointing out the flaws in Maduro's speech. But what made the reply to Maduro a hit were the following, in no order of importance:
- VTV and state media attack him all the time, which is OK, he does not care (I have got my mileage he said). What is not OK is that he does not have the right to reply. VTV et.al. addicts cannot pretend to ignore that anymore. The more so that the biggest vilifier of Ramos Allup and the opposotion is Diosdado Cabello show "con el mazo dando".
- He looked at the other three powers and reminded them that the only two sovereign powers, those elected by the people were the president and the Assembly and thus the other three were "derivative" powers. That is pointed at a time when one, the judicial power, is trying to unseat representatives without even the semblant of a trial (never mind of the well documented treacheries of the other two)
- He addressed the attending military top brass and explained them that the Bolivar that Chavez invented IS NOT the historical one, helping his cause with pictures and quotes. He explained that there was no room for ANY president portrait in a National Assembly. He went ahead and told them that the army was not there to do politics and he finished by making it crystal clear that neither Maduro nor him wanted a coup of any type. Reminding them, by the way, that about two weeks before April 2002 he was on record that there was a military coup in preparation against Chavez.
Now, guess who was the real target of this speech? Maduro? Guess again.
I think that what happened tonight besides revealing to the hard core chavismo what parliamentary democracy is all about, is that Ramos Allup offered his hand to Maduro to deal with the economic crisis together AND, most importantly AND, get rid of Diosdado Cabello who is managing to put everyone against himself without solving a simple problem.
It is of course a big gambit if what I write is right. After all, a reader could reply, Ramos Allup is on record to want to remove Maduro from office in the next 6 months. But the difference here, clearly expressed tonight, is that Ramos Allup does not have any particular grief against Maduro, he just wants the system gone. So, he implies, we can either prepare an honorable exit for Maduro (resigning or constitutional shortening of the term, a mere referendum would suffice) or a nastier one. The villain here, for all, is Diosdado Cabello. And you could sense that the message had been received in the rather subdued declarations Cabello gave to the press when the ceremony was over.
And since I am speculating might as well go for it. Ramos Allup offer is that if Cabello tones down or retires he will not surrender him to the DEA. As long as he remains in Venezuela in quiet retirement he can enjoy his loot (though I am sure he will be asked to return a portion of the stolen one). The offer to Maduro is that the opposition will help him taking some hard measures but the condition is that power is shared. That is, the judicial illegal nominations be reverted and the electoral board becomes truly neutral. This is the red line. Then if Maduro cannot go all the way with the necessary economic measures he can resign and retire in Venezuela, at least for a while. Or have his term shortened through a constitutional amendment that can be voted on fast, without any campaign needed. And all of this gives time tot he army to clean up its act and pick among themselves the 2-3 generals that must be sacrificed to the DEA so the other can remain free, as long as they do not leave Venezuela.
You know, I have the nagging feeling that the whole show was sort of planned by Ramos and the new Vice President Isturriz...... And probably worked out much better than the two wily coyotes ever hoped it would.
President Maduro finally came tonight for his state of the Union. The speech was long, vapid, misleading when not blurting outrageous lies when vaunting the "successes" of 2015. The excitement came through the fact that he showed up when a few days ago it seemed that the rebelliousness of Diosdado Cabello with the support of some judges could carry the day and send the Assembly into nothingness. This can still happen but I have big doubts tonight about it ever happening.
The Assembly "caved in" and suspended for a while the controversial representatives and thus Cabello and the Court had no other option but to recognize the validity of the Assembly for the time being. Thus showeth up Maduro.
All fine and dandy. The speech is given in cadena, that is, simultaneous mandatory broadcast on all audio visual media. ALL. Important detail for later. The speech lasted for over two jours but I only connected to it through the end, following it on tweeter before (see my time line for highlights in Spanish or English according to assumed public, on the right side of this blog).
Maduro said nothing besides his usual assortment of insults and what not. Yet he seemed rather subdued, a little bit lost. At the end, as expected, he handed the microphone to Ramos Allup as chair of the Assembly which we would have thought would limit himself to pronounce the protocolar farewell. It was not. Ramos Allup launched himself in a big speech.
Now, why was this speech so important, well managed by the way considering the ordeal that today must have been for him today?
You need to know that just like in the US, all powers are represented (5 in Venezuela, 4 of them clapping at any inanity of Maduro; in the US no Justice would be caught dead applauding a president at SOTU!). You need to know that when Ramos Allup took over the cadena continued and the state TV, VTV,which was the only one allowed to transmit live on airwaves remained fixed on Ramos Allup the whole time, probably waiting for the order to cut off, an order that never came. It was the first time in 17 years that the country saw a cadena by someone else than a chavista stating the official line. Thus the fixation and the novelty gave more reach to Ramos Allup than he may have deserved.
Of course the response of Ramos Allup was civil but frequently mischievous in pointing out the flaws in Maduro's speech. But what made the reply to Maduro a hit were the following, in no order of importance:
- VTV and state media attack him all the time, which is OK, he does not care (I have got my mileage he said). What is not OK is that he does not have the right to reply. VTV et.al. addicts cannot pretend to ignore that anymore. The more so that the biggest vilifier of Ramos Allup and the opposotion is Diosdado Cabello show "con el mazo dando".
- He looked at the other three powers and reminded them that the only two sovereign powers, those elected by the people were the president and the Assembly and thus the other three were "derivative" powers. That is pointed at a time when one, the judicial power, is trying to unseat representatives without even the semblant of a trial (never mind of the well documented treacheries of the other two)
- He addressed the attending military top brass and explained them that the Bolivar that Chavez invented IS NOT the historical one, helping his cause with pictures and quotes. He explained that there was no room for ANY president portrait in a National Assembly. He went ahead and told them that the army was not there to do politics and he finished by making it crystal clear that neither Maduro nor him wanted a coup of any type. Reminding them, by the way, that about two weeks before April 2002 he was on record that there was a military coup in preparation against Chavez.
Now, guess who was the real target of this speech? Maduro? Guess again.
I think that what happened tonight besides revealing to the hard core chavismo what parliamentary democracy is all about, is that Ramos Allup offered his hand to Maduro to deal with the economic crisis together AND, most importantly AND, get rid of Diosdado Cabello who is managing to put everyone against himself without solving a simple problem.
It is of course a big gambit if what I write is right. After all, a reader could reply, Ramos Allup is on record to want to remove Maduro from office in the next 6 months. But the difference here, clearly expressed tonight, is that Ramos Allup does not have any particular grief against Maduro, he just wants the system gone. So, he implies, we can either prepare an honorable exit for Maduro (resigning or constitutional shortening of the term, a mere referendum would suffice) or a nastier one. The villain here, for all, is Diosdado Cabello. And you could sense that the message had been received in the rather subdued declarations Cabello gave to the press when the ceremony was over.
And since I am speculating might as well go for it. Ramos Allup offer is that if Cabello tones down or retires he will not surrender him to the DEA. As long as he remains in Venezuela in quiet retirement he can enjoy his loot (though I am sure he will be asked to return a portion of the stolen one). The offer to Maduro is that the opposition will help him taking some hard measures but the condition is that power is shared. That is, the judicial illegal nominations be reverted and the electoral board becomes truly neutral. This is the red line. Then if Maduro cannot go all the way with the necessary economic measures he can resign and retire in Venezuela, at least for a while. Or have his term shortened through a constitutional amendment that can be voted on fast, without any campaign needed. And all of this gives time tot he army to clean up its act and pick among themselves the 2-3 generals that must be sacrificed to the DEA so the other can remain free, as long as they do not leave Venezuela.
You know, I have the nagging feeling that the whole show was sort of planned by Ramos and the new Vice President Isturriz...... And probably worked out much better than the two wily coyotes ever hoped it would.
Nationalization of Venezuelan Economy + Bolivarian Corralito
The regime has decided this noon to ask the National Assembly to grant it a decree of "economic emergency" for 60 days, extendable to 60 more. The objective is to face the "economic war" which is what made it lose the election. That economic war modality has never been explained but we were told it was waged on the regime by these nasty capitalist. So it is time to put them under real control.
Here follows the highlights as I weigh them and at the end I will attempt an interpretation. Note: this decree was issued BEFORE Maduro goes to the Assembly for his State of the Nation speech in a few minutes. I am not commenting all articles.
Article 2.
1- Because of inflation the regime has some budgetary crumbs, it seems, and they will use them at discretion, without need to go through the assembly. The excuse is to maintain the "misiones" working.
2- Confirmation that resources may be used within the budget or outside of it to guarantee welfare of "el pueblo".
4- Let's not bother with bidding.
6- Exempt certain goods from importation permits.
7- Suspend for some the requirements for obtaining foreign currency for import (What foreign currency? Oil barrel is at 24).
8- Demand that public and private enterprise produce in full capacity to provide the markets. Yes, that is right, I kid you not. This is my favorite! There is no raw material, there is no USD to import it, The harvest is in the dumps this year. And we are ORDERED to increase production.
9- The nationalization part. My translation and emphasis:
10- Bring in foreign investment and jump start exportations. Yeah, right.... In 60 days.... With full trust....
Article 3. Maduro can dictate other measures that will be necessary to protect living standards of families, children, teenagers and elderly. I kid you not, the redaction is much worse in Spanish.
Article 4. The "corralito" article. Simply: in rather vague terms the regime gets the right to control the flow of money inside the country, establishing limits for financial and banking transaction. In short: you cannot dispose of your money as you will, you need a permit to buy and sell. Note: "corralito" was what Argentina did in 2002 crisis where people could not get money out of their bank beyond a certain amount, or Greece a few months ago.
Article 6. People are not invited, they are summoned to participate in this economic offensive. the list of people that must partake include artists, sportsmen, youths, students and what not. In short ALL of US. Otherwise? My translation:
Article 8 and 10. They contradict themselves. The regime announces that as soon as the decree is published in the official journal, it can be applied. However the Assembly has 8 days to consider it. Is the regime planning already some demagogic action during these few days, like taking over Polar?
My interpretation.
This decree is clear and direct announcement that the regime will take over all what it needs to take to make things work. The excuse for that is that nothing about the actual food shortage crisis is its fault, that all has been caused by the private sector. Just like that, point blank.
Of course, the decree is unworkable, it is only the paroxysm of a failed model of outrageous controls that have resulted in a worthless currency, massive food and medicine shortages and even loss of independence. If this decree is enforced total ruin awaits Venezuela.
Why is a regime that has lost an election a month ago under the clear perception by the voters that the crisis is due to the mismanagement of Maduro and the extensive corruption?
One thing is that the regime truly does not understand why it lost the December election. Thus they are trying through a nuclear bomb decree to prove that they have been right all along. And along the way establish rationing under the excuse of the emergency, even if not directly noted in the decree.
Another thing is that the regime is preparing for an election, more likely to change Madruo or to change the constitution to get rid of the National Assembly.
But what I think is going on is that the regime, or rather the Maduro faction has decided to gamble it all on this provocation. Because it is a provocation, the National Assembly cannot possibly approve of such an emergency decree that not only will void its authority but will block any reform it may wish to make. Never mind that the Assembly cannot allow Maduro to put the blame on the Assembly. Not only there will be a rejection but it will have to be forceful.
From this confrontation there are only two possible results: Maduro leaves office or a coup is perpetrated.
---------------
Note: the economic war theory has been advanced a few months into Maduro's tenure. The Dakazo was one of his first campaigns. Apparently business deliberately hide their production, or paralyze them so that prices increase and people get upset and blame the regime.
And yet there is no credible case where such a political/economic strategy has been proven except in the case of some isolated stores which at most had supplies for a couple of weeks stashed away. The big players have always been irreproachable no matter how many controls the government has put on them. I think of the Polar Group, for example. Let me put it this way: if Polar were successful in hiding corn flour it would need dozens of gigantic warehouses. Where would those ones be? How come in two years the regime could not find any?
What makes it worse is that it si public knowledge that all the industries and lands expropriated under Chavez are either closed, unproductive, deficient and what not.
The regime had no other option but to invent an imaginary economic war to cover its ineptness and today it is forging ahead even if the risk is a total collapse in a matter of weeks. Not months, weeks, as in 4,5 weeks.
 |
| Minister Salas as he read the infamous decree against the economic war, whatever that is/was/will |
Here follows the highlights as I weigh them and at the end I will attempt an interpretation. Note: this decree was issued BEFORE Maduro goes to the Assembly for his State of the Nation speech in a few minutes. I am not commenting all articles.
Article 2.
1- Because of inflation the regime has some budgetary crumbs, it seems, and they will use them at discretion, without need to go through the assembly. The excuse is to maintain the "misiones" working.
2- Confirmation that resources may be used within the budget or outside of it to guarantee welfare of "el pueblo".
4- Let's not bother with bidding.
6- Exempt certain goods from importation permits.
7- Suspend for some the requirements for obtaining foreign currency for import (What foreign currency? Oil barrel is at 24).
8- Demand that public and private enterprise produce in full capacity to provide the markets. Yes, that is right, I kid you not. This is my favorite! There is no raw material, there is no USD to import it, The harvest is in the dumps this year. And we are ORDERED to increase production.
9- The nationalization part. My translation and emphasis:
el ejecutivo nacional podrá requerir de las personas naturales o jurídicas, propietarias o poseedoras, los medios de transporte, canales de distribución, centros de acopio, beneficiadoras, y demás establecimientos, bienes inmuebles y demás mercancías que resulten necesarios para garantizar el abastecimiento oportuno de alimentos a los venezolanos, así como otros bienes de primera necesidad.In short, the regime can take over ANY business that works with food, produces it, distributes it, sells it. ANY, courtesy of the vagueness in it. In theory it will return them to their owners at the end of the emergency but in which conditions? Will they pay for what they used, wore out, etc...?
The executive branch will be able to request from private persons or businesses, owners or users (?) the means to carry, distribution systems, regional distribution warehouses, animal processing plants and other assorted establishments, real estate and other products that may be necessary to guarantee the prompt supply of food to Venezuelasn, as well as other basic necessities goods.
10- Bring in foreign investment and jump start exportations. Yeah, right.... In 60 days.... With full trust....
Article 3. Maduro can dictate other measures that will be necessary to protect living standards of families, children, teenagers and elderly. I kid you not, the redaction is much worse in Spanish.
Article 4. The "corralito" article. Simply: in rather vague terms the regime gets the right to control the flow of money inside the country, establishing limits for financial and banking transaction. In short: you cannot dispose of your money as you will, you need a permit to buy and sell. Note: "corralito" was what Argentina did in 2002 crisis where people could not get money out of their bank beyond a certain amount, or Greece a few months ago.
Article 6. People are not invited, they are summoned to participate in this economic offensive. the list of people that must partake include artists, sportsmen, youths, students and what not. In short ALL of US. Otherwise? My translation:
a la consecución de los más altos objetivos de consolidación de la patria productiva y económicamente independiente, como fiel manifestación de la cohesión existente entre los venezolanos en el desarrollo económico nacional y contra las acciones ejercidas por factores internos y externos que pretenden la desestabilización económica del país.Important note: in the summoned "pueblo" there is no call to any established authority, be it governors, mayors, etc... But all the parallel organizations such as consejos comunales, parlamentos comunales, etc are summoned and will be the enforcers. That is, the only organizations called to support the emergency decree are all the structures controlled by the PSUV that have no legal basis but are given it now for their action, whether they have any legality or legitimacy. Mob rule in the works. Paramilitary colectivos to the rescue.
to the pursuit of the highest objectives of the productive fatherland economically independent, as the faithful manifestation of the existing cohesion among Venezuelans for the national economic development and against the actions undertaken by internal and external factors who pretend to destabilize the country's economy.
Article 8 and 10. They contradict themselves. The regime announces that as soon as the decree is published in the official journal, it can be applied. However the Assembly has 8 days to consider it. Is the regime planning already some demagogic action during these few days, like taking over Polar?
My interpretation.
This decree is clear and direct announcement that the regime will take over all what it needs to take to make things work. The excuse for that is that nothing about the actual food shortage crisis is its fault, that all has been caused by the private sector. Just like that, point blank.
Of course, the decree is unworkable, it is only the paroxysm of a failed model of outrageous controls that have resulted in a worthless currency, massive food and medicine shortages and even loss of independence. If this decree is enforced total ruin awaits Venezuela.
Why is a regime that has lost an election a month ago under the clear perception by the voters that the crisis is due to the mismanagement of Maduro and the extensive corruption?
One thing is that the regime truly does not understand why it lost the December election. Thus they are trying through a nuclear bomb decree to prove that they have been right all along. And along the way establish rationing under the excuse of the emergency, even if not directly noted in the decree.
Another thing is that the regime is preparing for an election, more likely to change Madruo or to change the constitution to get rid of the National Assembly.
But what I think is going on is that the regime, or rather the Maduro faction has decided to gamble it all on this provocation. Because it is a provocation, the National Assembly cannot possibly approve of such an emergency decree that not only will void its authority but will block any reform it may wish to make. Never mind that the Assembly cannot allow Maduro to put the blame on the Assembly. Not only there will be a rejection but it will have to be forceful.
From this confrontation there are only two possible results: Maduro leaves office or a coup is perpetrated.
---------------
Note: the economic war theory has been advanced a few months into Maduro's tenure. The Dakazo was one of his first campaigns. Apparently business deliberately hide their production, or paralyze them so that prices increase and people get upset and blame the regime.
And yet there is no credible case where such a political/economic strategy has been proven except in the case of some isolated stores which at most had supplies for a couple of weeks stashed away. The big players have always been irreproachable no matter how many controls the government has put on them. I think of the Polar Group, for example. Let me put it this way: if Polar were successful in hiding corn flour it would need dozens of gigantic warehouses. Where would those ones be? How come in two years the regime could not find any?
What makes it worse is that it si public knowledge that all the industries and lands expropriated under Chavez are either closed, unproductive, deficient and what not.
The regime had no other option but to invent an imaginary economic war to cover its ineptness and today it is forging ahead even if the risk is a total collapse in a matter of weeks. Not months, weeks, as in 4,5 weeks.
Wednesday, 13 January 2016
Talking on blog talk radio
My erratic blogging over the past two years has removed the attention from the media. But some do not forget about this blog. Tonight I chatted with Silvio Canto and Fausta of Fausta.
You can listen here, it should be up in about half an hour from this entry time stamp. I hope I was not too exalted...
You can listen here, it should be up in about half an hour from this entry time stamp. I hope I was not too exalted...
Tuesday, 12 January 2016
The plot sickens thickens (add some OAS salt to correct taste)
In brief. The National Assembly today did not hold its scheduled session for lack of quorum: nobody showed up. This is strange because opposition MUD representatives hold a majority large enough to seat on their own, quorum assured.
The thing is that the constitutional crisis/coup is in full swing and all sides needed to take stock and prepare the next move. So, as to not add more oil on the fire, nobody showed up and there was no legal battle on whether the N.A. session was duly cancelled.
What is going on is very simple and comes from many previous posts: the regime is hell bent on annulling the new assembly. To begin with it needs to fire enough MUD representatives so that the opposition loses its 2/3 supernumerary which could jeopardize the number 1 asset of the regime: 100% control over the judiciary branch directed through the high court, TSJ. This TSJ is composed of assorted goons with a less than stellar career when not implied in previous crimes. This detail is important as we will see later.
Thus the regime is in a battle for survival implying that justice will not looking into their criminal deeds and ministers are not subjected to hearings, and the money sent to Cuba is not audited, etc. etc.
The fight between the TSJ and the N.A. has,apparently,according to some folks, another component: a battle between Maduro and Cabello.
President Maduro would be under Cuban orders to find a provisional modus vivendi with the opposition. In Havana they know about maths and they probably realize that a new electoral option is not a good idea. While they come up with something they need Maduro to sing and dance, legally, so not only Venezuela keeps sending some cash to Cuba but long enough for the Castro to speed up any arrangement they need to complete with the West.
On the other hand former N.A. head Cabello, leader of the nouveau corrupt rich group "bolibourgeois" and the army portion doing sweet business and assorted narco traffic has on December 6 lost a lot of his "political base" (for lack of a better word to describe mafia groups active in politics). Since it is more than likely that Cabello may not be able to leave ever again Venezuela since there is too real a risk to be arrested by Interpol at some airport, he needs to feel safe at home. Thus any agreement between Cuba, and Maduro, and the army, and whatever, needs to go through his approval, an approval that can only be granted if Cabello preserves a more than significant power quota.
Unfortunately for Cabello some of his rivals have smelled blood in December and think that the time to get rid of him has come. So Cabello has to rely on the only sector where he has immediate strong support: the TSJ. Cabello certainly does not control all of the TSJ but all of its members have potential problems with real justice. That is, when real justice comes again to Venezuela it is fair to say that at the very least 80% of the current members will have to account for their actions. Already we have had two justices that preferred to leave the country in a hurry with a one way ticket. And other whose silence is growing.
It is thus easy for Cabello to use his blackmailing power on some of the judges to emit favorable rulings to HIS cause, and force the acquiescence of the other judges, even if silent. That such rulings also favor many inside chavismo that are not in the Cabello faction is a mere bonus point for Cabello.
How is that alleged battle playing out? For one thing it is not that visible even though Maduro has given signs that he may compose with the new N.A. Oh, ever so slightly, but to acknowledge that he would go to the N.A. for his State of the Union speech next Friday was already amazing! What Cabello does is the reverse, bring down to justice as many MUD representatives as possible, make the N.A. either irrelevant or illegal. And that would be that. Besides criminalizing some of the representatives let's not forget that there are still going on attempts at forming parallel communal assembly structures and just plain naked violence. For Cabello it is very simple, if he loses, he loses it all. You can understand that dialogue and mercy for him are not an option.
This is all fine but I do not subscribe in full. For one thing sinking Cabello could capsize all of the regime anyway. This is why the country has remained paralyzed for the last two years as no reform or mere initiative could be taken to solve our problems least a chavista faction got hurt in its interests. More importantly for me is the high fascist content of the regime. No matter what, in the end the temptation to kick the board may be too strong to resist regardless of public or international opinion. Fascists tend to be gamblers, you know. Or if you prefer another way to look at chavismo think about the story of the scorpion hitching a ride with the frog to cross the stream.
And that is why today's second letter of OAS Almagro to Venezuela is, well, a bomb in the pond.
If you recall OAS secretary Almagro wrote a lengthy 18 pages letter to Venezuelan electoral board decrying with perfect accurateness all the biased and unfair conditions for the electoral campaign of last year. That letter proximity to the election date had a clear role and compensated in large part the blockade of international observation enforced by the regime. It is fair to say that it helped the real result to be published.
Today Almagro published a 7 pages letter directly to Maduro, equally accurate, to show him that the world knows exactly what is going on in Venezuela. And later today Almagro noted the self sacrifice of the Amazonas state representatives accepting to remain on the side lines for a while as a major concession of the MUD, implying that it is about time the regime tames its crazies.
In that letter Almagro states that on his own volition he will need to call for the application of the Democratic Charter of the Americas if the regime persists in its attempt at voiding the expression of popular will. This is important because in the chavista mind such an initiative must come from a given country and all American countries are too scared to take the first step or too unsure as to who would follow. But times have changed (Macri in Buenos Aires, Dilma in the dumpster) and if Almagro takes the first step it will be much easier for the other countries to follow and a 2/3 votes for sanction to happen as Venezuela cannot pay off countries anymore.
The letter is too long to analyze in this already long enough entry. Suffice to say that it contains a careful legal analysis of the judicial power of Venezuela and its partiality towards the regime. And it writes, among other gems, that the TSJ ruling against the Assembly yesterday was a jump back to practices of the XIX century in Latin America (page 4). And Almagro goes as far as implying that the meager evidence used by the TSJ may have been a plain forgery (page 5).
Needless to insist that Almagro would have never written and sent and made public such a letter were he not to feel the clear support of a majority of OAS members. Chavistas do not understand that but that is how serious organizations function.
What will be the effect of Almagro's letter on the current crisis is not clear. After all the OAS is not going to send land troops. However one thing is certain, without the approval of a legal AND legitimate N.A. Venezuela's ability to borrow will be near null. And the severing of relations with many countries as a consequence of the application of the Democratic Chart would have further damaging effects on our tragedy. The beauty of it all is that the leaders of the fascist regime that would dare to go against the OAS would not be able anymore to leave Venezuela under threat of immediate arrestation at any airport where they land.
The question here is whether the people that have stolen less than Cabello, made minor crimes compared to those of Cabello, will accept to go down with him. After all many of the judges talking the talk these days could get away with only a couple of years in jail and then be able to enjoy a large chunk of what they have stolen. Why would they get life sentences like Cabello and a few narco generals demanding their protection?
That is where the real question in Venezuela is even though joints like the NYT would never dare publish such. But that is why you read blogs this far.
 |
| Maduro's gauntlet? |
The thing is that the constitutional crisis/coup is in full swing and all sides needed to take stock and prepare the next move. So, as to not add more oil on the fire, nobody showed up and there was no legal battle on whether the N.A. session was duly cancelled.
What is going on is very simple and comes from many previous posts: the regime is hell bent on annulling the new assembly. To begin with it needs to fire enough MUD representatives so that the opposition loses its 2/3 supernumerary which could jeopardize the number 1 asset of the regime: 100% control over the judiciary branch directed through the high court, TSJ. This TSJ is composed of assorted goons with a less than stellar career when not implied in previous crimes. This detail is important as we will see later.
Thus the regime is in a battle for survival implying that justice will not looking into their criminal deeds and ministers are not subjected to hearings, and the money sent to Cuba is not audited, etc. etc.
The fight between the TSJ and the N.A. has,apparently,according to some folks, another component: a battle between Maduro and Cabello.
President Maduro would be under Cuban orders to find a provisional modus vivendi with the opposition. In Havana they know about maths and they probably realize that a new electoral option is not a good idea. While they come up with something they need Maduro to sing and dance, legally, so not only Venezuela keeps sending some cash to Cuba but long enough for the Castro to speed up any arrangement they need to complete with the West.
On the other hand former N.A. head Cabello, leader of the nouveau corrupt rich group "bolibourgeois" and the army portion doing sweet business and assorted narco traffic has on December 6 lost a lot of his "political base" (for lack of a better word to describe mafia groups active in politics). Since it is more than likely that Cabello may not be able to leave ever again Venezuela since there is too real a risk to be arrested by Interpol at some airport, he needs to feel safe at home. Thus any agreement between Cuba, and Maduro, and the army, and whatever, needs to go through his approval, an approval that can only be granted if Cabello preserves a more than significant power quota.
Unfortunately for Cabello some of his rivals have smelled blood in December and think that the time to get rid of him has come. So Cabello has to rely on the only sector where he has immediate strong support: the TSJ. Cabello certainly does not control all of the TSJ but all of its members have potential problems with real justice. That is, when real justice comes again to Venezuela it is fair to say that at the very least 80% of the current members will have to account for their actions. Already we have had two justices that preferred to leave the country in a hurry with a one way ticket. And other whose silence is growing.
It is thus easy for Cabello to use his blackmailing power on some of the judges to emit favorable rulings to HIS cause, and force the acquiescence of the other judges, even if silent. That such rulings also favor many inside chavismo that are not in the Cabello faction is a mere bonus point for Cabello.
How is that alleged battle playing out? For one thing it is not that visible even though Maduro has given signs that he may compose with the new N.A. Oh, ever so slightly, but to acknowledge that he would go to the N.A. for his State of the Union speech next Friday was already amazing! What Cabello does is the reverse, bring down to justice as many MUD representatives as possible, make the N.A. either irrelevant or illegal. And that would be that. Besides criminalizing some of the representatives let's not forget that there are still going on attempts at forming parallel communal assembly structures and just plain naked violence. For Cabello it is very simple, if he loses, he loses it all. You can understand that dialogue and mercy for him are not an option.
This is all fine but I do not subscribe in full. For one thing sinking Cabello could capsize all of the regime anyway. This is why the country has remained paralyzed for the last two years as no reform or mere initiative could be taken to solve our problems least a chavista faction got hurt in its interests. More importantly for me is the high fascist content of the regime. No matter what, in the end the temptation to kick the board may be too strong to resist regardless of public or international opinion. Fascists tend to be gamblers, you know. Or if you prefer another way to look at chavismo think about the story of the scorpion hitching a ride with the frog to cross the stream.
And that is why today's second letter of OAS Almagro to Venezuela is, well, a bomb in the pond.
If you recall OAS secretary Almagro wrote a lengthy 18 pages letter to Venezuelan electoral board decrying with perfect accurateness all the biased and unfair conditions for the electoral campaign of last year. That letter proximity to the election date had a clear role and compensated in large part the blockade of international observation enforced by the regime. It is fair to say that it helped the real result to be published.
Today Almagro published a 7 pages letter directly to Maduro, equally accurate, to show him that the world knows exactly what is going on in Venezuela. And later today Almagro noted the self sacrifice of the Amazonas state representatives accepting to remain on the side lines for a while as a major concession of the MUD, implying that it is about time the regime tames its crazies.
Camino d diálogo abierto por los legisladores d Amazonas pone el interés d #Venezuela primero y abre camino d distensión #CARTASGOEA #Vzla— Luis Almagro (@Almagro_OEA2015) January 13, 2016In that letter Almagro states that on his own volition he will need to call for the application of the Democratic Charter of the Americas if the regime persists in its attempt at voiding the expression of popular will. This is important because in the chavista mind such an initiative must come from a given country and all American countries are too scared to take the first step or too unsure as to who would follow. But times have changed (Macri in Buenos Aires, Dilma in the dumpster) and if Almagro takes the first step it will be much easier for the other countries to follow and a 2/3 votes for sanction to happen as Venezuela cannot pay off countries anymore.
The letter is too long to analyze in this already long enough entry. Suffice to say that it contains a careful legal analysis of the judicial power of Venezuela and its partiality towards the regime. And it writes, among other gems, that the TSJ ruling against the Assembly yesterday was a jump back to practices of the XIX century in Latin America (page 4). And Almagro goes as far as implying that the meager evidence used by the TSJ may have been a plain forgery (page 5).
Needless to insist that Almagro would have never written and sent and made public such a letter were he not to feel the clear support of a majority of OAS members. Chavistas do not understand that but that is how serious organizations function.
What will be the effect of Almagro's letter on the current crisis is not clear. After all the OAS is not going to send land troops. However one thing is certain, without the approval of a legal AND legitimate N.A. Venezuela's ability to borrow will be near null. And the severing of relations with many countries as a consequence of the application of the Democratic Chart would have further damaging effects on our tragedy. The beauty of it all is that the leaders of the fascist regime that would dare to go against the OAS would not be able anymore to leave Venezuela under threat of immediate arrestation at any airport where they land.
The question here is whether the people that have stolen less than Cabello, made minor crimes compared to those of Cabello, will accept to go down with him. After all many of the judges talking the talk these days could get away with only a couple of years in jail and then be able to enjoy a large chunk of what they have stolen. Why would they get life sentences like Cabello and a few narco generals demanding their protection?
That is where the real question in Venezuela is even though joints like the NYT would never dare publish such. But that is why you read blogs this far.
Monday, 11 January 2016
Judicial coup for dummies
So I am late into the fray, just learning about an hour ago what the High Court has done today. See, I live in reality. I had a delicate situation with my S.O. and, besides appointments, part of the day was to look all around for rather simple antibiotics, and pain killers and anti inflammatory pills. We found two of them, not the ones recommended by the physician albeit acceptably less suitable alternatives.
In a waiting room I got wind of the declarations of the new minister for urban agriculture. I found the video tonight (at end of this entry). Indeed, she wants everyone to grab a tin can, and empty bottle, put some dirt and recycle the roots of any vegetable we can, starting with green onions.
Today we also learned that Venezuela oil barrel has reached its lowest price since 2002.
Recycling the root system of green onions? Can I plant pot instead so as to escape reality?
All of this to give you a little context for what comes next.
The battle between the electoral hall of the high court (e-TSJ for short) and democracy keeps apace. The e-TSJ has decided today (even though they should be on judicial holiday) that seating the representatives for Amazonas was illegal and puts the National Assembly into contempt. And thus ANY decision of the N.A. is void and will be.
There is no point in going back into the detail of the contentious. For recall what the e-TSJ has done is illegal for many reasons: all appeals in front of the electoral board CNE have not been exhausted; there is no legal emergency; even with three seats less the N.A. can vote on 99% of laws it needs to vote on; the e-TSJ first ruling came during judicial holiday; the e-TSJ has no right to void an election without some form of trial; etc.; etc.; and without mentioning that the allegations of fraud committed in Amazonas, even if true, pale in comparison to the accusations of fraud for every chavista candidate elsewhere.
Clearly, electoral justice is the least concern of the e-TSJ. The objective is elsewhere.
The objective is to stop the N.A. work before it has a chance to start hearings and voting laws that will limit or erase the power of the chavista elite. Complicated by whatever internal fight chavismo is having.
That is why a faction of chavismo, more than likely led by Diosdado Cabello as Maduro has more to lose in such a confrontation, uses the courts to undo the Assembly election. Going to the point of threatening the dismissal of the N.A. with the TSJ taking upo its functions until X.
The reactions of the N.A. were equally previsible. And the N.A. vice chair stated that they were not going to respect a "political" ruling of the e-TSJ.
It is also an excellent opportunity to remember a December 12, 2014 article in El Pais from Spain, English section where it is explained that
That is all.
So, what next?
Certain argue that the N.A. and Ramos Allup acted harshly, that after all they could start doing a few things with the 109 other seats. That they should have waited even if it left Amazonas without representation at a crucial time.
Others, like the ones rejecting the ruling, think that there is no other way but to confront.
I side with the later for various reasons.
- The e-TSJ "ruling" is not the first, it is already the second and there is already clear evidence that more is coming. The ex-chair of the TSJ has said it so, anticipating today's e-ruling (I have written a lot on her, Luisa Estela Morales Lamuño, in this blog).
- Avoiding a confrontation is useless. Postponing may make sense but when the regime attacks first you need to reply and up the ante.
- This is a thugocracy/kleptocracy/drug-lord-ocracy. Legal elegance is something that flies way above their heads. Accepting any thing from them is just the same as validating their crimes and pushing them forward.
A coup, violence, is unavoidable because the leader of the violent is Diosdado Cabello and he sees in his future an orange suit. Unfortunately there are dozens that also are looking at different ways to wear orange. If anyone disagrees with me they are welcome to explain why I am wrong.
Considering the reality that I live in I am painfully aware that what the regime seeks is to delay any action from the National Assembly and this will be leaving el pueblo, me, with neither food nor medicine. But, my friends, confronting or not the regime IS NOT going to speed up the solution to our problems. We can be only sure of one thing: as long as Maduro and Cabello are in charge, nothing, absolutely nothing will get fixed. They cannot fix it. They cannot care less.
Might as well go for it.
--------------------------------------
There is an older video of this weirdo saying that she would pinch the balls of any gringo landing in Venezuela during the uproar of the DEA putting narco-personnel on its lists. I suppose her agricultural project include also planting pot at home?
In a waiting room I got wind of the declarations of the new minister for urban agriculture. I found the video tonight (at end of this entry). Indeed, she wants everyone to grab a tin can, and empty bottle, put some dirt and recycle the roots of any vegetable we can, starting with green onions.
Today we also learned that Venezuela oil barrel has reached its lowest price since 2002.
Recycling the root system of green onions? Can I plant pot instead so as to escape reality?
All of this to give you a little context for what comes next.
The battle between the electoral hall of the high court (e-TSJ for short) and democracy keeps apace. The e-TSJ has decided today (even though they should be on judicial holiday) that seating the representatives for Amazonas was illegal and puts the National Assembly into contempt. And thus ANY decision of the N.A. is void and will be.
There is no point in going back into the detail of the contentious. For recall what the e-TSJ has done is illegal for many reasons: all appeals in front of the electoral board CNE have not been exhausted; there is no legal emergency; even with three seats less the N.A. can vote on 99% of laws it needs to vote on; the e-TSJ first ruling came during judicial holiday; the e-TSJ has no right to void an election without some form of trial; etc.; etc.; and without mentioning that the allegations of fraud committed in Amazonas, even if true, pale in comparison to the accusations of fraud for every chavista candidate elsewhere.
Clearly, electoral justice is the least concern of the e-TSJ. The objective is elsewhere.
The objective is to stop the N.A. work before it has a chance to start hearings and voting laws that will limit or erase the power of the chavista elite. Complicated by whatever internal fight chavismo is having.
That is why a faction of chavismo, more than likely led by Diosdado Cabello as Maduro has more to lose in such a confrontation, uses the courts to undo the Assembly election. Going to the point of threatening the dismissal of the N.A. with the TSJ taking upo its functions until X.
The reactions of the N.A. were equally previsible. And the N.A. vice chair stated that they were not going to respect a "political" ruling of the e-TSJ.
It is also an excellent opportunity to remember a December 12, 2014 article in El Pais from Spain, English section where it is explained that
reviewed 45,474 sentences issued between 2004 and 2014 by the political, electoral and constitutional chambers at Venezuela’s Supreme Courts - in charge of government oversight. The group published the results in a new book, El TSJ al servicio de la revolución (Editorial Galipan), which it is distributing in the country in an almost clandestine manner. Analysts and journalists see this thick book as a gem. The main conclusion of this long essay is that the Supreme Court has never delivered a sentence against the government.My emphasis. I rest my case, the e-TSJ ruling has nothing to do with electoral justice. This is a judicial coup in progress where a partisan named court will undo the popular will exerted through perfectly legal, even if biased, elections.
That is all.
So, what next?
Certain argue that the N.A. and Ramos Allup acted harshly, that after all they could start doing a few things with the 109 other seats. That they should have waited even if it left Amazonas without representation at a crucial time.
Others, like the ones rejecting the ruling, think that there is no other way but to confront.
I side with the later for various reasons.
- The e-TSJ "ruling" is not the first, it is already the second and there is already clear evidence that more is coming. The ex-chair of the TSJ has said it so, anticipating today's e-ruling (I have written a lot on her, Luisa Estela Morales Lamuño, in this blog).
- Avoiding a confrontation is useless. Postponing may make sense but when the regime attacks first you need to reply and up the ante.
- This is a thugocracy/kleptocracy/drug-lord-ocracy. Legal elegance is something that flies way above their heads. Accepting any thing from them is just the same as validating their crimes and pushing them forward.
A coup, violence, is unavoidable because the leader of the violent is Diosdado Cabello and he sees in his future an orange suit. Unfortunately there are dozens that also are looking at different ways to wear orange. If anyone disagrees with me they are welcome to explain why I am wrong.
Considering the reality that I live in I am painfully aware that what the regime seeks is to delay any action from the National Assembly and this will be leaving el pueblo, me, with neither food nor medicine. But, my friends, confronting or not the regime IS NOT going to speed up the solution to our problems. We can be only sure of one thing: as long as Maduro and Cabello are in charge, nothing, absolutely nothing will get fixed. They cannot fix it. They cannot care less.
Might as well go for it.
--------------------------------------
There is an older video of this weirdo saying that she would pinch the balls of any gringo landing in Venezuela during the uproar of the DEA putting narco-personnel on its lists. I suppose her agricultural project include also planting pot at home?
Saturday, 9 January 2016
A confusing but clarifying week
With the National Assembly swearing-in show and the collateral that came next Venezuela has experienced one of its most confusing weeks - but maybe one of its best ones-
The thread at the N.A. is simple. Chavismo could not find a way to stop its coming Götterdämmerung. So they came, saw and left. They could not avoid their first encounter with a free press in about a decade. Some of the questions were truly embarrassing like when a journalist was finally able to stand on the way of Cilia Flores and ask her about her narco-nephews. Not her nephews in jail in the US awaiting trial, but her NARCO-nephews, straight. This is what happens when you ignore and insult the press for so many years: they get so frustrated that they lose any sense of measure or respect. And poor Cilia, the "first fighter", the wife of president Maduro, had to pick up her pace to escape.
But this bringing down of Cilia was just the beginning of an iconoclastic binge. In the early morning next day the new chair of the N.A. Ramos Allup brought down all the portraits of Chavez that overwhelmed the decor. For good measure he also had brought down the computer created image of Bolivar out of his 200 year old remains. This necrophiliac endeavor from Chavez had become the new official portrait of Bolivar although there is a an existing portrait which was approved by Bolivar himself.
This carefully orchestrated act of Ramos Allup had the desired effect, an overreaction of chavismo which will cost it dearly. It included a lengthy military show in cadena (forced simultaneous broadcast on ALL networks and radios) to "desagravio" redress/repair the insult made to Bolivar even though the bulk of the actions was in defense of Chavez who is, apparently, more insulted than Bolivar.
It is hard to imagine that the totalitarian mentality of these people could be exposed so well in such short notice. General Padrino wanted to impress on us that the computer Bolivar was now encrusted deep into the heart of all of us. How could it be otherwise, he implied. And this meant that Bolivar was insulted through insults to Chavez as the favorite "insigne" son of Bolivar (even if he never got 50% of the electorate to vote for him, even with his higher scores in votes cast). That there is no food or medicine after Chavez is not making a dent in these people who keep their idols up. Hence the brilliant move of Ramos Allup, starting to tear down that mental construct that is blocking any progress for the country.
More details emerged to confirm that need. The mayor of Caracas announced that the whole city will be papered over with copies of the discarded portraits. Funds for that will apparently not be a problem. As to where will he find the paper and ink for that endeavour remains to be explained. Other chavistas suggested that all chavista households should have well displayed Bolivar and Chavez, a new version of the yellow star I suppose for those who do not harbor the "insigne" badge.
Meanwhile Ramos Allup forges ahead and went alone to Quinta Crespo market for his week's groceries, to the great wonderment of el pueblo not used to see chavista nomenklatura shop on their own (even if he had to leave in a hurry after red storm troopers arrived). Whatever criticism people throw at Ramos, and many are from the opposition itslef, we must thank him for breaking a taboo. The idolization of Chavez will never be the same.
The government thread is briefer: they have lost the capacity to set the political agenda and their race is to keep up with what the MUD and R.A. do. I am not going into the expected Greek chorus that want already to nullify the N.A. and jail R.A. I am just going to look at what happened at Miraflores. There Maduro named a new cabinet which kept military in the main positions, and the ones that move the most money. Some cryptic moderates under the guise of people with experience in the private sector were appointed. And to balance it all a social sciences major with nebulous ideas on economy and zero experience is the alleged new star.
But the new cabinet is more interesting through what is missing: some of Cabello heavy weights even though he still has his wife as tourism minister. Some see in that a real weakening of Cabello who, stripped of his power base at the N.A. and the refusal by the army to follow him in a coup on December 6, may be just on his way out. Perhaps even as a token offering to the DEA in a near future? All is possible but I also concur that Cabello's day are counted unless he finds new support that these days could only come from forgiveness of an opposition that he has brutalized for too long. In a way Cabello aura of invincibility is another icon that was brought down this week. After all since December 6 he was threatening and threatening and yet in the end he had to surrender the N.A. seat and could not stop its first measures, ridiculing himself by threatening the N.A. to leave it without funding.
As the first true week of the Assembly looms we may expect more surprises, the more so that it seems resolved in promoting first an amnesty law which could be the final showdown into forcing the regime to compromise,or to surrender. The final release of Leopoldo Lopez in the streets maybe too much for the regime to endure without breaking down. We will see.
 |
| Saddamization |
The thread at the N.A. is simple. Chavismo could not find a way to stop its coming Götterdämmerung. So they came, saw and left. They could not avoid their first encounter with a free press in about a decade. Some of the questions were truly embarrassing like when a journalist was finally able to stand on the way of Cilia Flores and ask her about her narco-nephews. Not her nephews in jail in the US awaiting trial, but her NARCO-nephews, straight. This is what happens when you ignore and insult the press for so many years: they get so frustrated that they lose any sense of measure or respect. And poor Cilia, the "first fighter", the wife of president Maduro, had to pick up her pace to escape.
But this bringing down of Cilia was just the beginning of an iconoclastic binge. In the early morning next day the new chair of the N.A. Ramos Allup brought down all the portraits of Chavez that overwhelmed the decor. For good measure he also had brought down the computer created image of Bolivar out of his 200 year old remains. This necrophiliac endeavor from Chavez had become the new official portrait of Bolivar although there is a an existing portrait which was approved by Bolivar himself.
This carefully orchestrated act of Ramos Allup had the desired effect, an overreaction of chavismo which will cost it dearly. It included a lengthy military show in cadena (forced simultaneous broadcast on ALL networks and radios) to "desagravio" redress/repair the insult made to Bolivar even though the bulk of the actions was in defense of Chavez who is, apparently, more insulted than Bolivar.
It is hard to imagine that the totalitarian mentality of these people could be exposed so well in such short notice. General Padrino wanted to impress on us that the computer Bolivar was now encrusted deep into the heart of all of us. How could it be otherwise, he implied. And this meant that Bolivar was insulted through insults to Chavez as the favorite "insigne" son of Bolivar (even if he never got 50% of the electorate to vote for him, even with his higher scores in votes cast). That there is no food or medicine after Chavez is not making a dent in these people who keep their idols up. Hence the brilliant move of Ramos Allup, starting to tear down that mental construct that is blocking any progress for the country.
More details emerged to confirm that need. The mayor of Caracas announced that the whole city will be papered over with copies of the discarded portraits. Funds for that will apparently not be a problem. As to where will he find the paper and ink for that endeavour remains to be explained. Other chavistas suggested that all chavista households should have well displayed Bolivar and Chavez, a new version of the yellow star I suppose for those who do not harbor the "insigne" badge.
Meanwhile Ramos Allup forges ahead and went alone to Quinta Crespo market for his week's groceries, to the great wonderment of el pueblo not used to see chavista nomenklatura shop on their own (even if he had to leave in a hurry after red storm troopers arrived). Whatever criticism people throw at Ramos, and many are from the opposition itslef, we must thank him for breaking a taboo. The idolization of Chavez will never be the same.
The government thread is briefer: they have lost the capacity to set the political agenda and their race is to keep up with what the MUD and R.A. do. I am not going into the expected Greek chorus that want already to nullify the N.A. and jail R.A. I am just going to look at what happened at Miraflores. There Maduro named a new cabinet which kept military in the main positions, and the ones that move the most money. Some cryptic moderates under the guise of people with experience in the private sector were appointed. And to balance it all a social sciences major with nebulous ideas on economy and zero experience is the alleged new star.
But the new cabinet is more interesting through what is missing: some of Cabello heavy weights even though he still has his wife as tourism minister. Some see in that a real weakening of Cabello who, stripped of his power base at the N.A. and the refusal by the army to follow him in a coup on December 6, may be just on his way out. Perhaps even as a token offering to the DEA in a near future? All is possible but I also concur that Cabello's day are counted unless he finds new support that these days could only come from forgiveness of an opposition that he has brutalized for too long. In a way Cabello aura of invincibility is another icon that was brought down this week. After all since December 6 he was threatening and threatening and yet in the end he had to surrender the N.A. seat and could not stop its first measures, ridiculing himself by threatening the N.A. to leave it without funding.
As the first true week of the Assembly looms we may expect more surprises, the more so that it seems resolved in promoting first an amnesty law which could be the final showdown into forcing the regime to compromise,or to surrender. The final release of Leopoldo Lopez in the streets maybe too much for the regime to endure without breaking down. We will see.
Thursday, 7 January 2016
Tales of a military temper tantrum
What has inflamed the 2.0 tonight is the late afternoon address of Padrino Lopez, in cadena nonetheless. A quick video analysis follows.
The act at Chavez grave is a "desagravio", that is an act of redress, in this case of the memory of Bolivar, Chavez and the honor of Maduro. We get that in the first seconds. Of course this is a response of yesterday Ramos Allup iconoclast act or removing the images of Chavez and the fake Bolivar at the National Assembly. The fake Bolivar is a "reconstruction" based on the skull of Bolivar that Chavez got through profanation. So, from the start poor Padrino ends up being quite ridiculous defending a 200 yer old reconstruction which present Bolivar with more "negroid" characters than the portrait that Bolivar himself approved of. But this bolivarian Venezuela....
In all truth here the outrage is against chasing Chavez from the National Assembly hallways where he should have never been to begin with. So the alleged Bolivar insult is used as an excuse to justify the defense of 17 years of ideologizing Chavez demi-god status.
Observe the actual camera focus at 40'' on the red foulard with the 4F which is the apology of the failed coup of 1992. Right there this is unconstitutional, illegal, traitorous and what next. Objectively there is no need to listen to the rest of the Padrino crap, but we must.
1:09 Padrino places Cilia flores above all the other representatives of chavismo. Some pigs are more equal than others.
2:03 Observe the panoramic of a fat military. Priceless.
2:35 The idiot taking pictures behind Padrino in what is supposed to be a most solemn occasion. They really cannot behave. Ever.
3:09 According to Padrino the whole fatherland has been "ultrajada" insulted, violated, etc... So he is the avenger.
3:30 He insists on Bolivar being the one offended. Go and see the Ramos Allup video again and tell me about that.
3:50 We finally get to Chavez "hijo insigne de bolivar y de la patria también" notable child of Bolivar and of the fatherland too. Note the order.........
Follows an amalgam as to Ramos Allup "ultraje" to the armed forces. Sure, the idol was toppled! Including biblical references of Jesus saying that you do not fight Satan with Satan. And suddenly at 6:30 Padrino approves of this, that they will not fight Satan with Satan.
7:45 close up of the fake Bolivar as he is cited that good manners make good laws. Really? Under Chavez?
Follows a dissertation about the preservation of Venezuelan history. never mind that Chavez rewrote it.
9:09 Freeze there and notice that the 3 army stars and the title of the communique Padrino then reads. You can see the title there. By then you notice that the event has been very carefully planned.
Follows a series of banalities noting that Maduro is the embodiment of the state so he was also offended.
11;00 Padrino starts justifying the invented Bolivar of Chavez, starting that this image has been accepted by all (not by me anyway, but I do not want to make this post about me).
Follows more bullshit about how Venezuela became bolivarian.
11:35 Anti capitalist jab.
14:15 In defense of Misiones.
14:44 "Bolivar y Chavez", the amalgam is now complete. They cannot be separated and are both the embodiment of the fatherland. There you go!
15:33 The attempt at amalgam of Maduro to Chavez and Bolivar starts.
15:58 Padrino ratifies the army unconditional support to Maduro. Really? How often will that support need to be ratified? One wonders.......
16:59 "conciencia supraracional", supra rational conscience? What the f...? Is this the intellectual excuse for a coup?
And then, surprisingly, Padrino finishes this totalitarian speech with an olive branch of sort stating that all have Venezuelan best interests at heart and that such scenes should be avoided so as not to foster further divisions. I, for one, read into this that Padrino has not read the speech he truly wanted to read. As to what that speech would be, I'd rather not speculate.
I do not know what this all means. However there are a few things that I can advance without fear of beeing too far from the mark.
First, for the armed forces living in inbred chavista and Cuban propaganda the idea that some people actually did not like Chavez at all is a surprise. For some reason they have equated a heavy imposed silence on us as a tacit acceptation of Chavez grandeur. It is not, and they are in shock.
Second, the actions of Ramos Allup have hit at the center of chavismo core beliefs, all that was used to justify years of looting and human rights violations in the name of a higher cause. That mental idol has also taken a hit.
Third, the regime suddenly realizes that the opposition means business and that a confrontation of powers is not a sure success for the regime. A rule in warfare is that you need to know your enemy. Watching the reaction of chavismo it seems that the opposition knows its enemy plexus much better than expected.
Still, Ramos Allup wishes he would have had it as easy as Leo the Isaurian.
The act at Chavez grave is a "desagravio", that is an act of redress, in this case of the memory of Bolivar, Chavez and the honor of Maduro. We get that in the first seconds. Of course this is a response of yesterday Ramos Allup iconoclast act or removing the images of Chavez and the fake Bolivar at the National Assembly. The fake Bolivar is a "reconstruction" based on the skull of Bolivar that Chavez got through profanation. So, from the start poor Padrino ends up being quite ridiculous defending a 200 yer old reconstruction which present Bolivar with more "negroid" characters than the portrait that Bolivar himself approved of. But this bolivarian Venezuela....
In all truth here the outrage is against chasing Chavez from the National Assembly hallways where he should have never been to begin with. So the alleged Bolivar insult is used as an excuse to justify the defense of 17 years of ideologizing Chavez demi-god status.
Observe the actual camera focus at 40'' on the red foulard with the 4F which is the apology of the failed coup of 1992. Right there this is unconstitutional, illegal, traitorous and what next. Objectively there is no need to listen to the rest of the Padrino crap, but we must.
1:09 Padrino places Cilia flores above all the other representatives of chavismo. Some pigs are more equal than others.
2:03 Observe the panoramic of a fat military. Priceless.
2:35 The idiot taking pictures behind Padrino in what is supposed to be a most solemn occasion. They really cannot behave. Ever.
3:09 According to Padrino the whole fatherland has been "ultrajada" insulted, violated, etc... So he is the avenger.
3:30 He insists on Bolivar being the one offended. Go and see the Ramos Allup video again and tell me about that.
3:50 We finally get to Chavez "hijo insigne de bolivar y de la patria también" notable child of Bolivar and of the fatherland too. Note the order.........
Follows an amalgam as to Ramos Allup "ultraje" to the armed forces. Sure, the idol was toppled! Including biblical references of Jesus saying that you do not fight Satan with Satan. And suddenly at 6:30 Padrino approves of this, that they will not fight Satan with Satan.
7:45 close up of the fake Bolivar as he is cited that good manners make good laws. Really? Under Chavez?
Follows a dissertation about the preservation of Venezuelan history. never mind that Chavez rewrote it.
9:09 Freeze there and notice that the 3 army stars and the title of the communique Padrino then reads. You can see the title there. By then you notice that the event has been very carefully planned.
Follows a series of banalities noting that Maduro is the embodiment of the state so he was also offended.
11;00 Padrino starts justifying the invented Bolivar of Chavez, starting that this image has been accepted by all (not by me anyway, but I do not want to make this post about me).
Follows more bullshit about how Venezuela became bolivarian.
11:35 Anti capitalist jab.
14:15 In defense of Misiones.
14:44 "Bolivar y Chavez", the amalgam is now complete. They cannot be separated and are both the embodiment of the fatherland. There you go!
15:33 The attempt at amalgam of Maduro to Chavez and Bolivar starts.
15:58 Padrino ratifies the army unconditional support to Maduro. Really? How often will that support need to be ratified? One wonders.......
16:59 "conciencia supraracional", supra rational conscience? What the f...? Is this the intellectual excuse for a coup?
And then, surprisingly, Padrino finishes this totalitarian speech with an olive branch of sort stating that all have Venezuelan best interests at heart and that such scenes should be avoided so as not to foster further divisions. I, for one, read into this that Padrino has not read the speech he truly wanted to read. As to what that speech would be, I'd rather not speculate.
I do not know what this all means. However there are a few things that I can advance without fear of beeing too far from the mark.
First, for the armed forces living in inbred chavista and Cuban propaganda the idea that some people actually did not like Chavez at all is a surprise. For some reason they have equated a heavy imposed silence on us as a tacit acceptation of Chavez grandeur. It is not, and they are in shock.
Second, the actions of Ramos Allup have hit at the center of chavismo core beliefs, all that was used to justify years of looting and human rights violations in the name of a higher cause. That mental idol has also taken a hit.
Third, the regime suddenly realizes that the opposition means business and that a confrontation of powers is not a sure success for the regime. A rule in warfare is that you need to know your enemy. Watching the reaction of chavismo it seems that the opposition knows its enemy plexus much better than expected.
Still, Ramos Allup wishes he would have had it as easy as Leo the Isaurian.
A new geography of chavismo [Updated]
When political movements suffer a major set back they either go extinct or they reorganize for better days. This means that inside factions shift, balances change and the result of these glissando will be extinction or renewal. With events these last two weeks we can start seeing how this is shaping.
The regime lost bad on December 6 but not everyone inside lost the same. The big loser is Diosdado Cabello; he lost his soap box, a lot of protection and his ability to rule through fear. Maduro lost a lot for sure as the election was a referendum on his tenure. But he is still president while Diosdado is, well, not much more than a minority party representative. If for the sake of survival the rivalry between the two men has been put in the side burner a year ago when polls started to look bad, that rivalry still exists and the need for survival is now desperate.
With the army party slightly on the side as they are not willing to pay the political price of 17 years of misrule, with the corrupt chavista narco elite blamed internally for the catastrophic economic crisis, it is the hour of the radicals and they are going for it.
Maduro formed in Cuba and the Castro's viceroy is naturally fond of radicals. He did not advance them before because chavismo was a coalition of interests where displacing a single group could have dangerous snowball effects. But now he can because the other factions are stunned not only because they lost on 6D so badly but also that the people did not revolt to expel the MUD invaders and restore chavismo to revolutionary glory. I am not making this up, read their own words in the press.
The thing about radicals is that even if they lose a battle or an election they do not care much as to the why and how. They just care about pursuing their agenda at all costs since they truly believe that through its completion people will finally see the goodness of their proposal. Be it radical chavismo, IS or Marine Le Pen. Thus yesterday we saw Maduro finally imposing a cabinet more to his liking where the economy tsar/star is pure lefty, but someone without even a formal Marxist formation. Luis Salas is a prophet. He has had visions that inflation does not exist, that gas is not subsided, that Polar hides months of national production in a small warehouse somewhere. As a prophet now in charge he will demonstrate that his fantasy world was the truth that others failed to see and thus failed to seek.
If some of the chavista factions may be stunned they are not necessary totally oblivious. The army sent back to its barracks keeps a few seats, in particular the defense minister Padrino who was the guy that refused to commit electoral fraud a month ago. Some more sensible heads are still around such as the new vice president or a couple of economy ministers offering a strange balance to Salas. It should be noted that the new vice, Aristobulo Isturiz, would be a great president for a short transition in between Maduro departure and the election of its successor. In fact, Isturiz could well be the best candidate chavismo has to offer but is smart enough not to accept this late in life such a poisoned gift. President for a few weeks will suffice him.
Thus go the moves inside chavismo, the first serious realignment since the civilian faction was ousted when Ramirez and Giordani were expelled. Now the fight in earnest between the radicals and the bolibourgeois narco elite supported by part of the army has started.
We will see if some inside the PSUV have the nerve to form a third faction to avoid the final demise of the Chavez party.
I have my doubts.
--------------------
Update.
Rafael Poleo thinks that the new cabinet and the iconoclast wars are a strategy to remove Diosdado Cabello once and for all. I am not mentioning this because I concur, I am just noting it to illustrate the wide swath of speculation going on.
The regime lost bad on December 6 but not everyone inside lost the same. The big loser is Diosdado Cabello; he lost his soap box, a lot of protection and his ability to rule through fear. Maduro lost a lot for sure as the election was a referendum on his tenure. But he is still president while Diosdado is, well, not much more than a minority party representative. If for the sake of survival the rivalry between the two men has been put in the side burner a year ago when polls started to look bad, that rivalry still exists and the need for survival is now desperate.
With the army party slightly on the side as they are not willing to pay the political price of 17 years of misrule, with the corrupt chavista narco elite blamed internally for the catastrophic economic crisis, it is the hour of the radicals and they are going for it.
Maduro formed in Cuba and the Castro's viceroy is naturally fond of radicals. He did not advance them before because chavismo was a coalition of interests where displacing a single group could have dangerous snowball effects. But now he can because the other factions are stunned not only because they lost on 6D so badly but also that the people did not revolt to expel the MUD invaders and restore chavismo to revolutionary glory. I am not making this up, read their own words in the press.
The thing about radicals is that even if they lose a battle or an election they do not care much as to the why and how. They just care about pursuing their agenda at all costs since they truly believe that through its completion people will finally see the goodness of their proposal. Be it radical chavismo, IS or Marine Le Pen. Thus yesterday we saw Maduro finally imposing a cabinet more to his liking where the economy tsar/star is pure lefty, but someone without even a formal Marxist formation. Luis Salas is a prophet. He has had visions that inflation does not exist, that gas is not subsided, that Polar hides months of national production in a small warehouse somewhere. As a prophet now in charge he will demonstrate that his fantasy world was the truth that others failed to see and thus failed to seek.
If some of the chavista factions may be stunned they are not necessary totally oblivious. The army sent back to its barracks keeps a few seats, in particular the defense minister Padrino who was the guy that refused to commit electoral fraud a month ago. Some more sensible heads are still around such as the new vice president or a couple of economy ministers offering a strange balance to Salas. It should be noted that the new vice, Aristobulo Isturiz, would be a great president for a short transition in between Maduro departure and the election of its successor. In fact, Isturiz could well be the best candidate chavismo has to offer but is smart enough not to accept this late in life such a poisoned gift. President for a few weeks will suffice him.
Thus go the moves inside chavismo, the first serious realignment since the civilian faction was ousted when Ramirez and Giordani were expelled. Now the fight in earnest between the radicals and the bolibourgeois narco elite supported by part of the army has started.
We will see if some inside the PSUV have the nerve to form a third faction to avoid the final demise of the Chavez party.
I have my doubts.
--------------------
Update.
Rafael Poleo thinks that the new cabinet and the iconoclast wars are a strategy to remove Diosdado Cabello once and for all. I am not mentioning this because I concur, I am just noting it to illustrate the wide swath of speculation going on.
El nuevo gabinete y el discurso de Padrino son las pinzas conque sacan del poder a Diosdado.
— Rafael Poleo (@PoleoRafael) January 8, 2016Wednesday, 6 January 2016
La fuite en avant or is it La politique du pire ?
French political language is rich and dates from the French Revolution where between 1789 and 1815, depending on how you count, up to 12 government systems could be identified. There are two sentences that need to be used for this entry. La fuite en avant refers as when you have no option but just make a run for it straight ahead and hope for the best (escaping straight ahead). La politique du pire refers to make the situation worse in the hope that people will want to go back to a past situation because it was less worse, grammatical mistake on purpose. Or to destroy everything so no one can do anything against you.
Today we can use BOTH expressions.
But before I keep going on you need to understand that the regime is acting as it does because its top leaders know full well that if a semi functional Assembly manages to get hold too many of them will end in jail. If you do not understand that then maybe what comes next will make little sense to you.
The mechanic of Wednesday events started with a series of videos summarized in a Tal Cual entry. These videos explicitly show how all the Chavez propaganda at the National Assembly was taken down Tuesday evening. But that is not the real story. These videos which pretend to be amateur are, I am sure of it, a carefully thought provocation by the new chair of the Assembly, Ramos Allup. Among other things he says that the only pictographie allowed in the Assembly are the official classic portraits of Simon Bolivar, that the necrophiliac reconstruction of Bolivar by Chavez was something crazy and that it should be taken with all the rest to Sabaneta (Chavez birth place) or Miraflores Palace or the trash, that he could not care less but all had to go.
Sure enough the assembly was under siege by chavista supporters Wednesday night...
So why did Ramos Allup took such a chance? Because he knows that a confrontation with the regime is unavoidable. It is going to happen, it is just a calendar question and Ramos Allup has decided that he will hold the calendar of the confrontation. So far at least today he is proven right: chavismo at Wednesday's session was out of itself to the point of hearing stupid things like a decomposed Cabello saying that there will be no money for the Assembly. I suppose that he thinks that international lenders will come and approve loans to Venezuela that are not signed by its National Assembly.....
Ramos Allup also proceeded into the swearing in of the dismissed representatives of Amazonas (though apparently they are refraining from voting). This is the other side of the coin. It may look as a provocation but as long as these never vote the decisions of the assembly cannot be judged illegal. On the other hand the blood thirsty radical wing of the opposition will get a bone to chew on while Ramos Allup woks on the really pressing matters.
In short, Ramos Allup got today the hysteria of the regime in full display showing them saying anything, preparing any thing to stop (or escape from?) the Assembly, la fuite en avant.
That night we got further regime reaction with the naming of the new Maduro government. I have not much to say on that except for a few points that are telling enough.
First, the regime has decided to cave in its radical left. Luis Salas is the new coordinator of the economy. He is a "professor" at the bolivarian university founded by Chavez to "form" all the public administration he needs. Objectivity has never been a value taught at the UBV. He has worked with PODEMOS in Spain. And if that is enough to scare you to death, you just need to read the titles of his opus at Aporrea where you can find gems like "The price of gas as a fetish" or "Economic war and social war. The mafiosi and paramilitary code behind the fascist violence". Yes, an "economic professor" penned title that a serious blogger would never dare to pen.
In his team we have a Caracas PSUV candidate defeated and now available to occupy a seat in an administration in search of its Kerensky. For commerce Maduro named Jesus Farias, a guy holding a positon in the Communist Party until 2007. As if a commie had any idea about what "Exterior Commerce and Foreign Investment" was all about.
At least for some levity Maduro also appointed someone for the banking system that has an idea of what is to be done. He also named for Vice President the governor of Anzoategui, Aristobulo Isturiz, a survivor of pre Chavez years, just like Ramos Allup.
What can we conclude from that? The regime is unable to change its economical system. It simply cannot. So Maduro names the most radical wing to the economy position, to increase further controls as if it were possible. La politique du pire, burnt earth... And the creation of a ministry of "Urban Agriculture" is not going to make us avoid starvation.
But on the other hand the regime has not solved its internal contradictions and the side aware that things have changed has managed to put someone to try not to see the banks fold, and perhaps the only person in the regime that can negotiate a settlement with Ramos Allup: Isturiz. (1)
The only problem here is that I wonder if Maduro has the luxury of time anymore. If he persists in listening to people like Salas that are convinced that the country can produce enough just if capitalism is flushed out then he may be in for a rude awakening. He lost on 6D in 23 de Enero and they are just across the street from Miraflores.
I cannot believe that our hopes are now solely on Isturiz shoulders!
------------------------
1) Besides the impression that reaching to lunatics like Salas show that Maduro is short on people willing to work with him, we should note that Venezuela has a 1.500 million dollar bond issue coming to term. Can anyone imagine Salas negotiating an extension? Is default a near certainty? Is this why Medina went banking control, to prepare for default?
Today we can use BOTH expressions.
But before I keep going on you need to understand that the regime is acting as it does because its top leaders know full well that if a semi functional Assembly manages to get hold too many of them will end in jail. If you do not understand that then maybe what comes next will make little sense to you.
The mechanic of Wednesday events started with a series of videos summarized in a Tal Cual entry. These videos explicitly show how all the Chavez propaganda at the National Assembly was taken down Tuesday evening. But that is not the real story. These videos which pretend to be amateur are, I am sure of it, a carefully thought provocation by the new chair of the Assembly, Ramos Allup. Among other things he says that the only pictographie allowed in the Assembly are the official classic portraits of Simon Bolivar, that the necrophiliac reconstruction of Bolivar by Chavez was something crazy and that it should be taken with all the rest to Sabaneta (Chavez birth place) or Miraflores Palace or the trash, that he could not care less but all had to go.
Sure enough the assembly was under siege by chavista supporters Wednesday night...
So why did Ramos Allup took such a chance? Because he knows that a confrontation with the regime is unavoidable. It is going to happen, it is just a calendar question and Ramos Allup has decided that he will hold the calendar of the confrontation. So far at least today he is proven right: chavismo at Wednesday's session was out of itself to the point of hearing stupid things like a decomposed Cabello saying that there will be no money for the Assembly. I suppose that he thinks that international lenders will come and approve loans to Venezuela that are not signed by its National Assembly.....
Ramos Allup also proceeded into the swearing in of the dismissed representatives of Amazonas (though apparently they are refraining from voting). This is the other side of the coin. It may look as a provocation but as long as these never vote the decisions of the assembly cannot be judged illegal. On the other hand the blood thirsty radical wing of the opposition will get a bone to chew on while Ramos Allup woks on the really pressing matters.
In short, Ramos Allup got today the hysteria of the regime in full display showing them saying anything, preparing any thing to stop (or escape from?) the Assembly, la fuite en avant.
That night we got further regime reaction with the naming of the new Maduro government. I have not much to say on that except for a few points that are telling enough.
First, the regime has decided to cave in its radical left. Luis Salas is the new coordinator of the economy. He is a "professor" at the bolivarian university founded by Chavez to "form" all the public administration he needs. Objectivity has never been a value taught at the UBV. He has worked with PODEMOS in Spain. And if that is enough to scare you to death, you just need to read the titles of his opus at Aporrea where you can find gems like "The price of gas as a fetish" or "Economic war and social war. The mafiosi and paramilitary code behind the fascist violence". Yes, an "economic professor" penned title that a serious blogger would never dare to pen.
In his team we have a Caracas PSUV candidate defeated and now available to occupy a seat in an administration in search of its Kerensky. For commerce Maduro named Jesus Farias, a guy holding a positon in the Communist Party until 2007. As if a commie had any idea about what "Exterior Commerce and Foreign Investment" was all about.
At least for some levity Maduro also appointed someone for the banking system that has an idea of what is to be done. He also named for Vice President the governor of Anzoategui, Aristobulo Isturiz, a survivor of pre Chavez years, just like Ramos Allup.
What can we conclude from that? The regime is unable to change its economical system. It simply cannot. So Maduro names the most radical wing to the economy position, to increase further controls as if it were possible. La politique du pire, burnt earth... And the creation of a ministry of "Urban Agriculture" is not going to make us avoid starvation.
But on the other hand the regime has not solved its internal contradictions and the side aware that things have changed has managed to put someone to try not to see the banks fold, and perhaps the only person in the regime that can negotiate a settlement with Ramos Allup: Isturiz. (1)
The only problem here is that I wonder if Maduro has the luxury of time anymore. If he persists in listening to people like Salas that are convinced that the country can produce enough just if capitalism is flushed out then he may be in for a rude awakening. He lost on 6D in 23 de Enero and they are just across the street from Miraflores.
I cannot believe that our hopes are now solely on Isturiz shoulders!
------------------------
1) Besides the impression that reaching to lunatics like Salas show that Maduro is short on people willing to work with him, we should note that Venezuela has a 1.500 million dollar bond issue coming to term. Can anyone imagine Salas negotiating an extension? Is default a near certainty? Is this why Medina went banking control, to prepare for default?
Tuesday, 5 January 2016
On Monday January 6 2003 this blog had its first entry
And that entry was from letters written through December 2002.
It has been 13 years and 4,338 posts. A ride if any.
If all entries had an individual page start I guess we would be talking around 6,000 pages. Maybe a few hundred more. Depending on the font chosen.
13 is my favorite prime number and apparently a kabbalistic one considering what is in store for next year.
And it is fitting that this anniversary comes one day after the opposition started on its way to liquidate the Chavez inheritance of corruption, looting and mismanagement.
It has been 13 years and 4,338 posts. A ride if any.
If all entries had an individual page start I guess we would be talking around 6,000 pages. Maybe a few hundred more. Depending on the font chosen.
13 is my favorite prime number and apparently a kabbalistic one considering what is in store for next year.
And it is fitting that this anniversary comes one day after the opposition started on its way to liquidate the Chavez inheritance of corruption, looting and mismanagement.
The first day of the New Assembly
This entry started this morning (see bottom for earlier text) but I decided to edit it and keep it up as a regular entry.
I am sorry to limit my comments on what happened inside the Assembly because I went to the support rally. In spite of the low speed of connections I did manage to have a full report, video included, of what that rally was. Considering that it was early January when everyone is on Holiday, considering that the regime close 4, FOUR, subway stations to force people to walk about 2 KM to attend, considering the threats, I think it was a very successful demonstration. Visit my Instagram account for pics and videos, in particular the police barrier at the end of the march, two blocks before the National Assembly. For those new to Instagram you need to click on the picture for full details and comments. Better get used to it and open your account, it is the future of micro blogging by eye witness.
As for what happened inside. It was a mess, chavismo trying to disrupt and sabotage whatever they could, sending a drunken opening speaker because it was for the oldest elected representative to open the session and proceed tot he election of the chair, Ramos Allup. Expect more of the like.
On noteworthy moments.
Ramos Allup gave a good speech and made it clear that the opposition got the message, that the regime is going to attack the New Assembly and that they will fight back, including a legal, constitutional, electoral, peaceful removal of Maduro from office in the next 6 months.
Cabello withdrew the PSUV group because supposedly Ramor Allup violated rules. As if he NEVER violated any rule himself.
Cilia Flores, wife of Maduro and representative from Cojedes was asked about her narco-nephews in jail in New York. She walked away with a truly dirty look, first time a journalist was close enough her to ask for the question we all wanted to hear.
Things were said that chavismo did not like. They are not used at how democracy works.
Reuters got it right: Venezuelans used to years of monochromatic to ideological TV could not believe it when in cafes suddenly TV was live with opposition politicians speaking. It is true, when I drove back home I saw crowds spilling out of cafes!!!!
So there it was for a first rowdy day. But that is that, the opposition is now in charge at the Assembly. There is still the question of the illegally annulled 4 seats. But as wee say in French a chaque jour suffit sa peine.
For those who refuse to get into Instagram
---------------------------------
I will try to go to the rally in support of the New Assembly. If I succeed I will try to post stuff on Instagram and/or twitter. Links on the right side of this page.
Then again maybe not: I just learned that the subway stations around La Hoyada have been shut down for "security" reasons, which means you need to walk a mile to reach la Hoyada. They will try to screw us until the bitter end!
We are going for it anyway.
I am sorry to limit my comments on what happened inside the Assembly because I went to the support rally. In spite of the low speed of connections I did manage to have a full report, video included, of what that rally was. Considering that it was early January when everyone is on Holiday, considering that the regime close 4, FOUR, subway stations to force people to walk about 2 KM to attend, considering the threats, I think it was a very successful demonstration. Visit my Instagram account for pics and videos, in particular the police barrier at the end of the march, two blocks before the National Assembly. For those new to Instagram you need to click on the picture for full details and comments. Better get used to it and open your account, it is the future of micro blogging by eye witness.
As for what happened inside. It was a mess, chavismo trying to disrupt and sabotage whatever they could, sending a drunken opening speaker because it was for the oldest elected representative to open the session and proceed tot he election of the chair, Ramos Allup. Expect more of the like.
On noteworthy moments.
Ramos Allup gave a good speech and made it clear that the opposition got the message, that the regime is going to attack the New Assembly and that they will fight back, including a legal, constitutional, electoral, peaceful removal of Maduro from office in the next 6 months.
Cabello withdrew the PSUV group because supposedly Ramor Allup violated rules. As if he NEVER violated any rule himself.
Cilia Flores, wife of Maduro and representative from Cojedes was asked about her narco-nephews in jail in New York. She walked away with a truly dirty look, first time a journalist was close enough her to ask for the question we all wanted to hear.
Things were said that chavismo did not like. They are not used at how democracy works.
Reuters got it right: Venezuelans used to years of monochromatic to ideological TV could not believe it when in cafes suddenly TV was live with opposition politicians speaking. It is true, when I drove back home I saw crowds spilling out of cafes!!!!
So there it was for a first rowdy day. But that is that, the opposition is now in charge at the Assembly. There is still the question of the illegally annulled 4 seats. But as wee say in French a chaque jour suffit sa peine.
For those who refuse to get into Instagram
---------------------------------
I will try to go to the rally in support of the New Assembly. If I succeed I will try to post stuff on Instagram and/or twitter. Links on the right side of this page.
Then again maybe not: I just learned that the subway stations around La Hoyada have been shut down for "security" reasons, which means you need to walk a mile to reach la Hoyada. They will try to screw us until the bitter end!
We are going for it anyway.
Monday, 4 January 2016
Weimar or Harare?
Or was that a suicidal note from the regime?
I wrote earlier about the recent "economic policies" of the regime. But I need to add the latest from today, the de facto privatization of the Central Bank of Venezuela, BCV, to Nicolas Maduro and his camarilla.
In what is a gross constitutional violation Maduro modified through law decree the rules over the BCV. His enabling law did not allow him to do so, and the constitution either. Period.
Which are the modifications?
First, the National Assembly, NA, cannot name representatives to the BCV board of directors, they are now named all by the executive branch. That is right, the executive decides on its own on monetary and fiscal policies. No outside input or supervision needed.
Second, the new BCV is under no obligation to make its statistics public, that is, it will send them to the NA if the executive power allows for it. And apparently even then the NA cannot comment on them. One wonders how can the NA legislate if the most important statistics of the country remain hidden from view.
Third, the BCV can now lend to the regime whatever money it needs, and the conditions of such lending may remain confidential if the regime justifies of any crisis. That is, the banknote printing machine depends on whatever petty cash Maduro needs at any given day.
I need not insult the intelligence of the reader that if such a measure is not immediately overturned by the new NA we are going straight ahead into the wall of hyperinflation. Our currency is as of today is, well, worthless (today 847 to 1 USD, I bet you 1,500 by early February). Hello Weimar! Greetings Harare! We may just beat your records!
This suicidal action of the regime, because when hyperinflation comes in I have no idea how they will stop the people from Catia and 23 de Enero to come and burn down Miraflores Palace, has three clear intentions.
One is to avoid asking the new NA for budgets and their extension. Electoral needs will be covered directly through borrowing at the BCV, for example.
The second intention is to delay as much as possible the publication of the catastrophic economic news of 2015 which may well speed up the downfall of the regime.
The third intention, last but not least, principal in my eyes, is to hide the corruption, looting and mismanagement of the country under Maduro. When the numbers come in, when the NA is able to open hearings on some ministers like Rodriguez Torres, Osorio or the BCV director Merentes, these people will be unable to hide their responsibilities and penal measures will have to be required on the spot. Or these people will have to do a coup which would be hard to succeed considering the reasons why they will ask el pueblo for support. Henceforth the neutralization and privatization of the BCV.
I should add a fourth ancillary reason. Funding for Cuba will be very difficult through the NA. There will be a need to hide the looting that needs to maintain alive the Castro criminals. Blocking access to the BCV not only hides what was already given to Cuba but will allow for a year or two more of partial financing of Cuba. Then again since the country is all but bankrupt I wonder how much money can Cuba get anyway.
This, for me, is the worst possible thing the regime could do to itself. It is simply unthinkable and betrays the desperation of the regime and its willingness to disregard any rule, any constitutional obligation. But it also may show that the army is abandoning it. If they need to resort to packing courts and hiding the money it is because they cannot do a coup. Or so I hope for the sake of all of us.
I wrote earlier about the recent "economic policies" of the regime. But I need to add the latest from today, the de facto privatization of the Central Bank of Venezuela, BCV, to Nicolas Maduro and his camarilla.
In what is a gross constitutional violation Maduro modified through law decree the rules over the BCV. His enabling law did not allow him to do so, and the constitution either. Period.
Which are the modifications?
First, the National Assembly, NA, cannot name representatives to the BCV board of directors, they are now named all by the executive branch. That is right, the executive decides on its own on monetary and fiscal policies. No outside input or supervision needed.
Second, the new BCV is under no obligation to make its statistics public, that is, it will send them to the NA if the executive power allows for it. And apparently even then the NA cannot comment on them. One wonders how can the NA legislate if the most important statistics of the country remain hidden from view.
Third, the BCV can now lend to the regime whatever money it needs, and the conditions of such lending may remain confidential if the regime justifies of any crisis. That is, the banknote printing machine depends on whatever petty cash Maduro needs at any given day.
I need not insult the intelligence of the reader that if such a measure is not immediately overturned by the new NA we are going straight ahead into the wall of hyperinflation. Our currency is as of today is, well, worthless (today 847 to 1 USD, I bet you 1,500 by early February). Hello Weimar! Greetings Harare! We may just beat your records!
This suicidal action of the regime, because when hyperinflation comes in I have no idea how they will stop the people from Catia and 23 de Enero to come and burn down Miraflores Palace, has three clear intentions.
One is to avoid asking the new NA for budgets and their extension. Electoral needs will be covered directly through borrowing at the BCV, for example.
The second intention is to delay as much as possible the publication of the catastrophic economic news of 2015 which may well speed up the downfall of the regime.
The third intention, last but not least, principal in my eyes, is to hide the corruption, looting and mismanagement of the country under Maduro. When the numbers come in, when the NA is able to open hearings on some ministers like Rodriguez Torres, Osorio or the BCV director Merentes, these people will be unable to hide their responsibilities and penal measures will have to be required on the spot. Or these people will have to do a coup which would be hard to succeed considering the reasons why they will ask el pueblo for support. Henceforth the neutralization and privatization of the BCV.
I should add a fourth ancillary reason. Funding for Cuba will be very difficult through the NA. There will be a need to hide the looting that needs to maintain alive the Castro criminals. Blocking access to the BCV not only hides what was already given to Cuba but will allow for a year or two more of partial financing of Cuba. Then again since the country is all but bankrupt I wonder how much money can Cuba get anyway.
This, for me, is the worst possible thing the regime could do to itself. It is simply unthinkable and betrays the desperation of the regime and its willingness to disregard any rule, any constitutional obligation. But it also may show that the army is abandoning it. If they need to resort to packing courts and hiding the money it is because they cannot do a coup. Or so I hope for the sake of all of us.
The regime tries to play hard ball
I suspect that the live coverage yesterday of the new National Assembly chair election by Globovision must have irked a lot the regime. That must account for today's news, at least in part.
First Ramos Allup, the elected chair, went today, 24 hours before he is to be seated, the N. A.
A chavista mob barred the entry and Ramos Allup had to retreat.
An ex-president of Bolivia tweeted that:
On other news the dismantling of ANTV, Venezuela's C-span wanna-be, has been confirmed. Workers showing up this morning found that they had been fired and that the equipment had been disassembled and/or taken away. Even Globovision is reporting it. This is quite remarkable because Globovision had been bought by chavista front men and that it showed yesterday live the election of Ramos Allup and today went to defend ANTV workers who have been fired BY THE REGIME. The reader should remember that the regime was accusing Ramnos Allup of wanting to fire ANTV workers but I guess they could not wait.
How can we read this?
First, the regime is clearly on panic mode. Doing these two measures a day before installing the new assembly, as many international witnesses are arriving and the whole world observes, is not good PR.
Second, there is true panic inside the regime that their stranglehold on communications is about to be broken. Never mind that NA interpellations of incompetent and corrupt ministers would be shown live on TV. So they blew up ANTV system in the hope that other broadcasters will not want to step in and repalce the NA cameras. Something that I suspect will fail: if Globovision is showing surprising hints of independence it is quite possible that the wind wanes at Venevision and Televen may do the same. Never mind that a quick reform of the communications law can do much more damage tot he image of the regime at home than poor ANTV could.
First Ramos Allup, the elected chair, went today, 24 hours before he is to be seated, the N. A.
A chavista mob barred the entry and Ramos Allup had to retreat.
An ex-president of Bolivia tweeted that:
¡Dios q le has dado a Diosdado desquiciado! Esbirros agreden @hramosallup Pres-Electo Asambl VEN antes d cambio 5E pic.twitter.com/3hzKfWTfxS— Tuto Quiroga (@tutoquiroga) January 4, 2016Good for the international public relations of the regime!On other news the dismantling of ANTV, Venezuela's C-span wanna-be, has been confirmed. Workers showing up this morning found that they had been fired and that the equipment had been disassembled and/or taken away. Even Globovision is reporting it. This is quite remarkable because Globovision had been bought by chavista front men and that it showed yesterday live the election of Ramos Allup and today went to defend ANTV workers who have been fired BY THE REGIME. The reader should remember that the regime was accusing Ramnos Allup of wanting to fire ANTV workers but I guess they could not wait.
How can we read this?
First, the regime is clearly on panic mode. Doing these two measures a day before installing the new assembly, as many international witnesses are arriving and the whole world observes, is not good PR.
Second, there is true panic inside the regime that their stranglehold on communications is about to be broken. Never mind that NA interpellations of incompetent and corrupt ministers would be shown live on TV. So they blew up ANTV system in the hope that other broadcasters will not want to step in and repalce the NA cameras. Something that I suspect will fail: if Globovision is showing surprising hints of independence it is quite possible that the wind wanes at Venevision and Televen may do the same. Never mind that a quick reform of the communications law can do much more damage tot he image of the regime at home than poor ANTV could.
Meanwhile, let's check back at the ranch
While Caracas gets ready for tomorrow's hoe down let's check out what are the wheat and cattle yields at the ranch. The picture is grim.
It is certainly near impossible these days to get reliable figures of anything. So the devoted reader will have to take me at face value.
I can tell you that the animal protein production of the country is spiraling down, fast, as the regime is not allowing for the importation of what is required for animal feed. And since the Venezuelan crops are not too good, and must be used first for human feed (deficient amounts per se), you get the picture. For example poultry production stands at 50% of its potential and going down. Well, that is what I was told late November. I see nothing to improve that number and I suspect it is lower today.
If you want more subjective pictures hang around a supermarket. There are less lines. But because there is nothing coming in. If you are into luxury items like fresh produce, yogurt, milk, you can still sort of find. Yes, I include milk in the luxury items. The latest case of UHT milk I bought, "Mi Vaca" brand, cost me 3500 for 12 liters. That is 291 VEB per liter. In dollar it is nothing but in minimum wage percentile it is ruinous: 290/9500*100= 3.1% (rounding numbers).
That is right, the only milk available for the last three months represents 3% of the MONTHLY minimum wage for a single liter. I do not remember the last time I bought fresh milk; and powder milk at controlled price arrives, if ever, at some governmental store. For all practical purposes the regime has yielded and allows production of UHT skim milk with limited controls as the only occasional source of milk.
I can still manage because I do not eat either meat or arepas and I can afford milk, but I wonder how the hoi polloi makes it.
If you want even more subjective.... Tradition had that at midnight on Christmas eve and New Year's eve there were all sorts of private fireworks, some spectacular (people literally love to blow their money). In Caracas the smoke cloud used to be thick enough to dim the city lights. This is over. And poor pets went crazy days before as at anytime some jerk would blast out something somewhere. This is over too. Pets are happy. Christmas fireworks were sparse and lasted a few minutes. New Year's works did last a little bit longer than the ones on the 24 but the air remained clean and 15 minutes after midnight it was all over. The crisis has struck everyone, no money for fireworks this year.
And presents were scarce also. Not only the offerings were limited but the prices were out of reach. People offered food. A jar of imported marmalade was considered a nice present.
The real problem is unfortunately elsewhere. The regime is doing nothing. NOTHING structural. And the very few initiatives taken these past few weeks consisted in increasing taxes, put new controls and approve today, on the very last day of the outgoing assembly, huge special lame duck credits that basically leave the coffers empty for a while without Maduro needing to request money tot he incoming Assembly.
It is not idle to state that a lot of the last minute desperate maneuvers of the regime may be illegal since supposedly the Maduro cabinet was asked to resign a few days after 6D election. To this writing Maduro has yet to name a new cabinet and I doubt that a caretaker administration can request the funds demanded to an outgoing assembly that did not even bother to gather in full, letting such a momentous vote go to a "comision delegada", a substitute of congress strictly for control and emergency measures until the assembly can be called back out of its normal sessions.
All the recent measures, to give them a name, could have been easily accomplished through a feeble gas hike instead of increasing taxes and pushing further into the nation (the measures are special credits out of budget). The only rational explanation I can come up with is that the regime is planning an election in the next few months and is refusing to deal with the mess in the vain hope to pin it on the opposition.
Now I must stop, time to see if anything arrived at the grocery store nearby today.
It is certainly near impossible these days to get reliable figures of anything. So the devoted reader will have to take me at face value.
I can tell you that the animal protein production of the country is spiraling down, fast, as the regime is not allowing for the importation of what is required for animal feed. And since the Venezuelan crops are not too good, and must be used first for human feed (deficient amounts per se), you get the picture. For example poultry production stands at 50% of its potential and going down. Well, that is what I was told late November. I see nothing to improve that number and I suspect it is lower today.
If you want more subjective pictures hang around a supermarket. There are less lines. But because there is nothing coming in. If you are into luxury items like fresh produce, yogurt, milk, you can still sort of find. Yes, I include milk in the luxury items. The latest case of UHT milk I bought, "Mi Vaca" brand, cost me 3500 for 12 liters. That is 291 VEB per liter. In dollar it is nothing but in minimum wage percentile it is ruinous: 290/9500*100= 3.1% (rounding numbers).
That is right, the only milk available for the last three months represents 3% of the MONTHLY minimum wage for a single liter. I do not remember the last time I bought fresh milk; and powder milk at controlled price arrives, if ever, at some governmental store. For all practical purposes the regime has yielded and allows production of UHT skim milk with limited controls as the only occasional source of milk.
I can still manage because I do not eat either meat or arepas and I can afford milk, but I wonder how the hoi polloi makes it.
If you want even more subjective.... Tradition had that at midnight on Christmas eve and New Year's eve there were all sorts of private fireworks, some spectacular (people literally love to blow their money). In Caracas the smoke cloud used to be thick enough to dim the city lights. This is over. And poor pets went crazy days before as at anytime some jerk would blast out something somewhere. This is over too. Pets are happy. Christmas fireworks were sparse and lasted a few minutes. New Year's works did last a little bit longer than the ones on the 24 but the air remained clean and 15 minutes after midnight it was all over. The crisis has struck everyone, no money for fireworks this year.
And presents were scarce also. Not only the offerings were limited but the prices were out of reach. People offered food. A jar of imported marmalade was considered a nice present.
The real problem is unfortunately elsewhere. The regime is doing nothing. NOTHING structural. And the very few initiatives taken these past few weeks consisted in increasing taxes, put new controls and approve today, on the very last day of the outgoing assembly, huge special lame duck credits that basically leave the coffers empty for a while without Maduro needing to request money tot he incoming Assembly.
It is not idle to state that a lot of the last minute desperate maneuvers of the regime may be illegal since supposedly the Maduro cabinet was asked to resign a few days after 6D election. To this writing Maduro has yet to name a new cabinet and I doubt that a caretaker administration can request the funds demanded to an outgoing assembly that did not even bother to gather in full, letting such a momentous vote go to a "comision delegada", a substitute of congress strictly for control and emergency measures until the assembly can be called back out of its normal sessions.
All the recent measures, to give them a name, could have been easily accomplished through a feeble gas hike instead of increasing taxes and pushing further into the nation (the measures are special credits out of budget). The only rational explanation I can come up with is that the regime is planning an election in the next few months and is refusing to deal with the mess in the vain hope to pin it on the opposition.
Now I must stop, time to see if anything arrived at the grocery store nearby today.
Sunday, 3 January 2016
In extremely reluctant praise of Ramos Allup
Today the MUD coalition voted on who would be the chair for the first year tenure of the National Assembly elected on 6D (NA). The winner is Henri Ramos Allup (1). I am very far from overjoyed but I also must make a great effort to understand the historic moment.
The negative first.
Henri Ramos Allup is the secretary of Accion Democratica, AD, the old grand party of the pre Chavez years. From the wreckage he did save some of the furniture but at the cost of being a kind of little tyrant, happily purging a few, in a very chavista way. But the reader should keep in mind that chavismo is mostly coming from the AD low rung hacks that were kept in check for their hardheadedness, incompetence and the like. Once unleashed we saw the dramatic results over these last 15 years of looting and incompetence. I am not pinning on these transfuges the narco state: that one comes straight from Fidel Castro and the FARC who had no problem recruiting into the diverse lumpen that joined Chavez.
But what is perhaps the greatest fault of Ramos Allup is his unwillingness to clean up a little bit around himself. Namely, he has many direct and indirect relatives involved with or working for companies that have got sweet and questionable deals from the regime. This does not mean at all that Ramos Allup himself benefited on any of these deals (I think he married rich or something anyway, and I am certainly not in a position to address that issue). The problem is that such relations have been pointed out routinely by many people. Investigative blogs have been written about companies like Derwick or suspicious contractors, and Ramos Allup response has been to block you on Twitter, avoid answers, etc. Dodge the ball, defended on that by people like Rafael Poleo who should have known better.
It is thus with great concern that some of us watch the election of Ramos Allup at the NA chair. We are sure that during his one year tenure little progress will be made on certain type of urgently needed investigations (amen of other issues dear to this blogger).
The positive, if I must.
We need to understand the political moment of the country. The chair of the new National Assembly will be the punching ball of the regime in desperate need to create an enemy. Since Ramos Allup is already a despicable entity for the regime, the opposition has nothing to lose promoting him. Ramos has thick skin, he can take anything the regime sends his way.
Ramos Allup has what we call in Venezuela pico de plata, silver tongue. So, not only he can take what the regime sends his way, but he can reply on the spot, on the mark, knowing how to dose carefully how outrageous he needs to be to make a point. That much I need to grant him: he may be the best around for that quality, the one needed to begin that difficult and dangerous transition process we are facing.
Ramos Allup is elected NA chair because the majority inside the MUD is center left. No other party besides AD has a national figure in that group. The other "national" candidate, Julio Borges leads a more to the center group. Even though he has the largest party, Primero Justicia, inside the MUD his natural allies are missing because either he shooed them away or they did not get enough seats. So Borges will need to seat this one out, paying for some of his political mistakes like alienating Leopoldo Lopez people who should have never been voting for Ramos Allup. In short, whether we like it being irrelevant, Ramos Allup is one of the two lone national figures seating in the new parliament. And we cannot do without a national figure for at least 2016.
Ramos Allup has abundant experience in Parliament work. That is the only thing he has done all of his life. Dealing with the regime's PSUV bent on sabotaging ANYTHING we need a wily fox at the helm until the newcomers learn how to manage things. That is the way politics work, sorry.
It does not hurt that Ramos Allup has had time to make many friends over seas to the point of being an important voice of the Socialist International (currently one of its many vice presidents). Let me remind the reader that some of the strongest support for the MUD against the regime has come from many luminaries of the SI like ex Spain premier Felipe Gonzalez.
Finally I would not worry too much about his mark on the National Assembly direction: he is put there to face the required theater/play against the regime. The legislative work will be done by the rest of Assembly board. In particular it seems that Julio Borges will be the majority whip which means he will be the one setting the true priorities of the incoming assembly, as well as herding a majority that soon will show strain in holding its unity, a role Borges may be suited for.
So there you are, whether we like it we must recognize that Ramos Allup is a better fit for the political moment. But worry not, that political moment will vary very, very fast.
--------------------
1) Ramos Allup blocks me on his twitter account, as he blocks A LOT of people according to my Twitter account. In short any one that seems to disagree strongly with Ramos is blocked. Not as very good sign for someone presiding a Parliament, and who needs not to read or answer to tweets. So, if you have a twitter account pass that info to @hramosallup before he gets into international ridicule for blocking his account. NOTE: I have NEVER insulted him, just questioned his familial dubious links.
For witness this tweet from someone blocked by Ramos Allup wishing he could read the message of conciliation and harmony that the new chair is supposed to have sent. (Sigh!)
 |
| The new troika: majority whip (Borges) MUD secretary (Torrealba) and NA chair (Ramos) |
The negative first.
Henri Ramos Allup is the secretary of Accion Democratica, AD, the old grand party of the pre Chavez years. From the wreckage he did save some of the furniture but at the cost of being a kind of little tyrant, happily purging a few, in a very chavista way. But the reader should keep in mind that chavismo is mostly coming from the AD low rung hacks that were kept in check for their hardheadedness, incompetence and the like. Once unleashed we saw the dramatic results over these last 15 years of looting and incompetence. I am not pinning on these transfuges the narco state: that one comes straight from Fidel Castro and the FARC who had no problem recruiting into the diverse lumpen that joined Chavez.
But what is perhaps the greatest fault of Ramos Allup is his unwillingness to clean up a little bit around himself. Namely, he has many direct and indirect relatives involved with or working for companies that have got sweet and questionable deals from the regime. This does not mean at all that Ramos Allup himself benefited on any of these deals (I think he married rich or something anyway, and I am certainly not in a position to address that issue). The problem is that such relations have been pointed out routinely by many people. Investigative blogs have been written about companies like Derwick or suspicious contractors, and Ramos Allup response has been to block you on Twitter, avoid answers, etc. Dodge the ball, defended on that by people like Rafael Poleo who should have known better.
It is thus with great concern that some of us watch the election of Ramos Allup at the NA chair. We are sure that during his one year tenure little progress will be made on certain type of urgently needed investigations (amen of other issues dear to this blogger).
The positive, if I must.
We need to understand the political moment of the country. The chair of the new National Assembly will be the punching ball of the regime in desperate need to create an enemy. Since Ramos Allup is already a despicable entity for the regime, the opposition has nothing to lose promoting him. Ramos has thick skin, he can take anything the regime sends his way.
Ramos Allup has what we call in Venezuela pico de plata, silver tongue. So, not only he can take what the regime sends his way, but he can reply on the spot, on the mark, knowing how to dose carefully how outrageous he needs to be to make a point. That much I need to grant him: he may be the best around for that quality, the one needed to begin that difficult and dangerous transition process we are facing.
Ramos Allup is elected NA chair because the majority inside the MUD is center left. No other party besides AD has a national figure in that group. The other "national" candidate, Julio Borges leads a more to the center group. Even though he has the largest party, Primero Justicia, inside the MUD his natural allies are missing because either he shooed them away or they did not get enough seats. So Borges will need to seat this one out, paying for some of his political mistakes like alienating Leopoldo Lopez people who should have never been voting for Ramos Allup. In short, whether we like it being irrelevant, Ramos Allup is one of the two lone national figures seating in the new parliament. And we cannot do without a national figure for at least 2016.
Ramos Allup has abundant experience in Parliament work. That is the only thing he has done all of his life. Dealing with the regime's PSUV bent on sabotaging ANYTHING we need a wily fox at the helm until the newcomers learn how to manage things. That is the way politics work, sorry.
It does not hurt that Ramos Allup has had time to make many friends over seas to the point of being an important voice of the Socialist International (currently one of its many vice presidents). Let me remind the reader that some of the strongest support for the MUD against the regime has come from many luminaries of the SI like ex Spain premier Felipe Gonzalez.
Finally I would not worry too much about his mark on the National Assembly direction: he is put there to face the required theater/play against the regime. The legislative work will be done by the rest of Assembly board. In particular it seems that Julio Borges will be the majority whip which means he will be the one setting the true priorities of the incoming assembly, as well as herding a majority that soon will show strain in holding its unity, a role Borges may be suited for.
So there you are, whether we like it we must recognize that Ramos Allup is a better fit for the political moment. But worry not, that political moment will vary very, very fast.
--------------------
1) Ramos Allup blocks me on his twitter account, as he blocks A LOT of people according to my Twitter account. In short any one that seems to disagree strongly with Ramos is blocked. Not as very good sign for someone presiding a Parliament, and who needs not to read or answer to tweets. So, if you have a twitter account pass that info to @hramosallup before he gets into international ridicule for blocking his account. NOTE: I have NEVER insulted him, just questioned his familial dubious links.
For witness this tweet from someone blocked by Ramos Allup wishing he could read the message of conciliation and harmony that the new chair is supposed to have sent. (Sigh!)
Si tan solo pudiera leerlo https://t.co/kLYQV9fL9Z— Edgar Baptista (@edgarmanuel) January 4, 2016
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