The 2015 election: final review

The good thing about landslides is that detailed study of vote movement is not necessary nor possible since the anger vote is difficult to assess and predict for the future. In democratic countries this is not really an issue: Mauritius had once a 100% district parliament win fort a single party and it never stopped being a democracy. Thus after reviewing the highlights we may try to summarize the whole thing.

I reviewed the worst chavista defeats, the crown jewel falling to the opposition in full, the ill fate of the dissidents, the division in the new majority. For further details Tal Cual has a nice graph about the MUD growth in each district from 2010 to 2015. So let's summarize a few points.

Below is the update of the Caucaguita graph including Sunday 6 result.

Caucaguita went to the opposition and thus the help it supposed to be for chavismo in the gerrymandering did not work out. As reader Boludo Tejano pointed out, that gerrymandering does not work does not mean "it blew up in your face". Though in Barinas it was a clear case of such thing: the newly drawn three seats district could have gone only one or two for opposition before but went down all three. Another infamously redrawn district, Valencia South, went all three seats for the opposition.

What is interesting in the Caucaguita numbers above is that the opposition growth followed its old pattern: the vote to punish Maduro only played a role in that the opposition went above chavismo when in projection it should have been slightly below. There is the bad news for chavismo: there was an anger vote but there was also growing opposition vote. Which one is which will be revealed over the next years, but the trend was there even if in some states the MUD vote had truly circumstantial "angry voter" jumps.

The angry vote as it explained anything was the extreme polarization of the country. Third party candidates fared particularly bad. You were for Maduro or you were not. And let's not forget that a significant portion of the Maduro vote was out of fear. Had elections be free we may be talking today of a National Assembly Mauritius style. Yet, this uncertainty about how much of its gains are real should give pause to the MUD as it must find ways to retain enough of this angry vote to retain a parliamentary majority in the future. The upcoming CNE will probably eliminate the gerrymandering of the currently chavista controlled CNE and future 2/3 majorities cannot be counted upon again.

Another lesson should be taken away from these elections: the electoral fraud of chavismo may be everywhere but at vote counting time it only works if turnout is rather low. From all information we can listen to, if there are possible local vote padding, those were ineffective. True, the electoral fraud actually takes place BEFORE the vote by making it impossible for the opposition to campaign effectively. But we hope that from today on the campaign in pro of abstention will be finally silenced and redirected to fight pre-election fraud.

In the end the strategy of the opposition to do nothing and wait for the elections worked ONLY because the economy got worse than anyone expected. Thus at this point trying to figure out the effect of Leopoldo Lopez protest of 2014 and subsequent martyrdom cannot be evaluated out of the vote itself. Yet I propose that the spectacular sweep of Caracas by the opposition owes something to Leopoldo (and Maria Corina and Ledezma). His Caracas protest and the locally felt regime's overboard reactions have energized the opposition there even though people like Capriles poo-pooed it.

We thus got a 2/3 majority which contrary to the pessimist crowd I think should hold long enough to pass key decisions that will affect future electoral contests. One is the renewal of the electoral board CNE. Another one is to remove part of the censorship that affects election campaigns. With this the material advantage of the regime at election time will be lowered considerably. If we can get at least that much next year, and I trust we will, then this election would have been worth it just for that, for allowing the return of a real political debate that may avoid a civil war.

Finally, when we look at the results in some details there is no way to hide the unmitigated disaster the vote was for the regime even if it tries to disguise the disaster by, well, ignoring it. Even though the PSUV held "primaries", even though it did manage to spread a few goodies at the last minute, two years of long lines under the sun and rain have done the regime a permanent damage. And it seems that all hell is about to break lose inside chavismo. Let's not forget that when such a mass movement finds itself so degraded is when it can become more dangerous and bring more harm than ever. Or peter out fast. Let's hope for the alter.

The 2015 results: polarization, when thou hold us enthralled!

This entry is for the anecdotal part. There were some "independents/dissenter" candidates. What was their fate?

The polarization of the country rolled over them without pity.


The ones from the opposition side, who should have fared batter than those from PSUV were not only laminated but actually caused the loss of at the very least one seat for the MUD. Imagine it at 113! And because of two of them Maria Corina Machado has created a lot of grief for herself, when she should have been one of the heroines of the election campaign for her selfless dedication to campaigning for whomever wanted her presence at meetings.

There was one seat where I thought that MCM would have scored; the one in Lara for Palavecino where she supported Gomez Sigala. The MUD, unwisely, had decided to put one of the aides of governor Falcon, suspected of hiding in the MUD until better days were ahead for an alliance with the PSUV, together with Marquina who apparently moves a lot across Venezuela, having been representative for the states of Sucre and Miranda.

Gomez Sigala, on the liberal right of the MUD, has been a good representative in that he has been working assiduously during his 5 years tenure. The MUD tossed him out because anyone smelling of free market and private property is, well, unpalatable in a country where all, ALL political parties are some shade of populists. One of the reason by the way MCM has not managed to make her political party, VENTE, viable so far. Traditions are hard to break even if they are intellectually correct and coherent.

Unfortunately the polarization was so high, the desire of a punishing vote on Maduro so exacerbated that Gomez got only 4,160 votes to the 146,424 votes that Marquina got on top of the ticket.  Note that the chavista top got only 67,576 so even a perfect split between the two opposition tickets would have still given that seat for the opposition.

But the stubbornness of Gomez and the unwise political flair of MCM only messed his career but weakened MCM position further inside the MUD. And this was made worse by her support of a dissident MUD in Tachira that this time did give an extra undeserved seat to chavismo allowing the reelection of the unsavory Sanguino. This one got 40,7% of the vote while the combined opposition vote was 59+% (and state wise was 2 to 1 for the opposition!). Note that the MUD candidate got 13% more votes than the dissident candidate, so it was not even close.

In other dissident we had in Caracas Berenice Gomez, firebrand personality of Radio Caracas and with a twitter following of 715K. She pitted herself against Ramos Allup because she thought him (justifiably) weak in front of chavismo corruption due to his family links to financial sectors of chavismo. Well, Ramos got 139.435 votes to 458 for our girl Berenice.  An even split there would have given the seat to the opposition anyway as the chavista candidate only got 56.562 but such are the wonders of polarized electorate, the more so in big cities which have suffered most from the regime's policies.

Another very questionable dissent was the MAS, henceforth a weak member of the MUD as the bulk of its leftist electorate went Chavez long ago. Its score nation wide has been dismal, ruining any chance it has to rejoin the MUD. For example 758 votes out of 1.221.224 votes cast in Caracas Libertador where 9 seats were elected.

As for chavismo dissent, hidden through some diverse parties, it is not even worth discussing. Whatever chavismo dissent existed it went straight to the MUD to punish Maduro, not even staying home as the high participation of the electorate showed.

Just a little note on fake dissent. In Petare district chavismo run William Ojeda. What was notable there is that you needed to wait for election day to discover that Ojeda was also the candidate of PSUV. That is, all the campaign of Ojeda was based on a party judicially hijacked by chavismo, MIN, which run as if they were the opposition, with almost the same color of the MUD brand, and placed, surprise, next to the MUD case on the ballot. The a clear intent to confuse voters, even noted overseas. As I described all of the Petare district was plastered with Ojeda pale blue posters. You would be hard pressed to find a single PSUV poster in red supporting Ojeda. Well, it did not work. Ojeda was TRASHED with 73,840 against MUD standard banner Pizarro with 144.727. To add insult to injury through the PSUV label Ojeda got 68.205 votes while under the MIN label 1.759 votes.

In short it is quite possible that there has been more MIN posters for Ojeda than the MIN actually got in votes.

And keep in mind that more than half of the voters in Petare are from what has been termed the largest continuous barrio/favella/slum in the world. Ain't it that something!

Conclusions;
1) polarization has been worse than ever
2) the MUD victory is clearly due to a big chunk of chavismo voting against Maduro's failed policies and
3) those MUD victory votes are "borrowed". If it is true that once a first switch happens, further switches are much easier for the voters. However this switch is not very constructive. MUD strength was built slowly by chavista voter first abstaining from voting Chavez, and then finally going MUD the following election. I would venture that half of the MUD growth this time can revert easily to chavismo once Maduro is removed from office.

Starting Advent a tad late but...

This morning I dusted off my Christmas music. For the first time in over a decade I can enjoy it truly even though the feast will be meager this year.

I suppose I am late to start Advent but heck, I found this in Facebook so there you go, Christmas is all about sharing!

The 2015 results: Caucaguita (and Caracas) sweetest moment for the MUD

No need to go in where the opposition did its best score, the 112 new 2/3 majority speaks of itself, the blog entry to cover it all would be too long. Instead let's go where the opposition victory may have been the sweetest: Caracas and greater Caracas.

The title of a recent blog entry was "As Caucaguita goes so will the election". I did not know I would be proven so right. Unbelievably the opposition took Caucaguita, going a long way to explain how the MUD took the double seat district of Guarenas and Guatire (and the rest of the country). I was expecting at best, from the graph of that entry, an even score. Well, in Caucaguita the opposition list won with 50.21% against the PSUV list at 46.95%. The closest result for the opposition in Caucaguita were 5 years ago when the opposition list got 80% of what chavismo got. This time it got 110% of the chavista vote....

But if Caucaguita remains justifiably for this blog the bellwether district, the smashing win in Caucaguita was the reflection of the smashing win across the country, none as sweet that the conquest of Caracas and almost all of the greater Caracas. If a popular, urban, low income district like Caucaguita went MUD, how could similar districts of Vargas, Libertador, Petare do otherwise?


The Caracas districts sweep across 5 town-hall, with Libertador, where seat of government resides, being about half the size. The MUD took ALL.

In Libertador the MUD beat 57 to 40 the regime! It took 23 de Enero where the mother of fake revolution martyr Robert Serra was running. In Catia "safe seats" where regime's stars Bernal and Villegas were running, the MUD candidates won by 12%. Jacqueline Faria who said that long lines were fun was trashed by 12% also, in what was supposedly another safe seat reserved for her. Jose Guerra, on foot, house by house, with no budget, took on Jesus Faria, former communist, economist degree from RDA Berlin, ex minister of Chavez, credit control comission at the NA, and beat him by 9 points. In total, 8 out of 9 seats.

In Miranda as expected the opposition took Baruta/Chacao. But the regime had gerrymandered the two districts of Baruta/Chacao/Petare in such ways that from 4 seats it only sends 2 this time around, using the trimmed and outright stolen portion to reinforce chavistas districts in the South and East of Caracas. And yet it did not work. Placing Caucaguita and similar districts with Guarenas and Guatire to improve chavismo chances did not work: Capriles state secretary list took the district. D'Elia beat by 8 points what was supposed to be a relative safe seat for Eekhout, the strident pasionaria of the regime that was a National Assembly vice president. The other greater Caracas districts went one for the MUD (San Antonio/Los Teques) while the Southern district did remain chavista. If Jaua did manage to get elected it is still a bitter defeat for him and the regime. Dispatched in 2013 to Miranda as a viceroy with a parallel budget and organization to sabotage Capriles, the state wide list of the PSUV was trashed by 20 points. TWENTY POINTS! Yet the gerrymandering was so effective that with its total 5 out of 12 seats the PSUV still gets somewhat over represented.

I have saved the best for last: Vargas. As the Northern border of Caracas Vargas is part of the greater Caracas. A state which has been incomprehensibly chavista when we consider how Chavez mistreated them, it went opposition this time, to the surprise of most observers. And not only it went MUD, but it did so clearly with 52 to 45, giving three out of its 4 seats to the MUD.

The victory for the MUD in the greater Caracas was stunning. It got all the district seats of Caracas and 5 out of 8 of the greater Caracas.  It got votes all across demographics, from wealthy Hatillo districts to emblematic 23 de Enero, where Chavez used to vote, with a clown martyr of the revolution in Robert Serra, where paramilitary colectivos like infamous La Piedrita rule. When 23 de Enero votes were counted in full, the MUD had 48.64% to the 48.16% of chavismo alliance (PSUV alone 44.8 %).

Two years of long lines under the sun took a toll: bastions like Caucaguita and 23 de Enero fell in spite of all the blackmail, pressure, bribes, vote buying and even colectivo terror. End of an era for racial and class divides promoted from the regime.

The 2015 results: chavismo worst losses

Considering how upset chavismo is and how discombobulated Maduro and Cabello are I thought that I would start the result analysis by selecting some of chavimso worst results, losses that are truly troubling for the future of chavismo as a national movement. Namely Omar Prieto in Zulia, the Aragua case and Parequeima in Anzoategui.


Omar Prieto, the Zulia future power that went back to save his town-hall

Omar Prieto was, in my opinion, one of the worst creatures that chavismo has begotten. He managed somehow to get hold of the Southern area of Maracaibo, San Francisco, which normally would go opposition, albeit by narrow margins. From there he managed sabotage campaigns against former governor Perez, and was even promoted against current governor Arias by the more radical wings of chavismo. In short until last Sunday he was the potential future owner of Zulia, in the mold of Cabello like roughness. It also appealed that his tall, mestizo, forceful demeanor was in tune with the racist chavista new man. Thus Prieto was the top ticket of chavismo for Zulia.

Well, all of this changed Sunday, to the point that Prieto decided to give up his freshly gained National Assembly seat to remain San Francisco mayor.

The numbers are without possible appeal.

I would like to point out that there were 12% more voters participating this time around, which makes the result in actual votes above much worse than what they look for our boy Omar. Thus what cynically Prieto is doing is staying at San Francisco where he is the top cacique rather than being an obscure to irrelevant politico at the new National Assembly...  But we also must admit to the political necessity to preserve Zulia's second biggest town-hall in the hands of chavismo because his departure would provoke a new mayoral election that chavismo would surely lose. (Note: his state wide list got ONLY 36.3% !!!; and thus his governor run next year is right now doubtful).

Aragua, "the birth state of the revolution" is a landslide for the opposition

This one gotta hurt a lot.

Aragua has been perhaps the most consistent supporter of chavismo. This time around chavismo only managed one spot in the Aragua state wide list. All the other seats, even the gerrymandered ones, went opposition, sometimes with surprising margins. 8 out 9 seats for the MUD.

From this we can see that the collapse of chavista vote is due in equal parts to abstention and crossing over, amplifying a movement that has been going on haphazardly since 2012 (Capriles was already only 80K behind Maduro in 2013).

Many explanations here. Maneuvers to destroy popular opposition leaders like Richard Mardo backfired. The imposition of Chavez last interior minister, Tarek el-Aissami turned out to be a poor choice for governor as he not only never managed to pass for an aragueño, but was also internationally associated as a drug cartel head. Never mind the abuses he comitted on anyone opposing him, be it oppo or chavo. No matter what monuments to the revolution our boy Tarek kept dotting the Aragua landscape, in the end it was the impossibility of Polar plants in Aragua to supply the locals that carried the day for the MUD.

The end of a cacique power

In Southern Anzoategui state there is a "traditional" family power shared from father to son. The name is even cacique sounding, Paraquiema. But they are equally lambucios, waiting for the best deal, no loyalty whatsoever.

They joined chavismo early but when they did not get what they wanted they went opposition in 2010 and got elected under the MUD/PODEMOS label. If I remember well there was even an assault to a town hall or something of major street trouble in El Tigre. Unfortunately the opposition did not give the governor candidacy nod to his son so Paraquiema went back to chavismo and helped it vote damaging laws even though he was elected by an opposition majority. A perverse double agent if ever.

Paraqueima got defeated this time but he did not do as bad as the cases above. Then again he is the type of local power that is followed by a group of people no matter what. Cacique style. Let's hope that this time around the primitiveness of certain portions of the electorate will be done with. At least Paraqueima dynasty has been given a real blow, if not necessarily lethal. One thing it shows chavismo is that sometimes its strength is subjected to not very loyal whims, which in the end hut more than help.

Conclusion

These three examples will convey, I hope, why chavismo is so nervous these days. The results are not just a matter of discontent with the long lines dues to food scarcity. There is also discontent with the leadership imposed from Caracas, or self imposed through rough means. The damage done in these three districts is real and it goes beyond just a mere clientele provisional disaffection. Long term, in other words.

No matter some in chavismo would like to be done with the electoral system altogether....

The 2015 results: general

Now that the CNE has finally announced the final result we can start more detailed analysis. They will be interesting and I will have a few posts on that through the next couple of weeks. Stay tuned. But first an evaluation of my own predictions.

The CNE does not publish vote count as too embarrassing for the regime, You could be sure that had the PSUV won the election, the vote count would be posted. Never mind, there are people that do so and there is a tweet on this matter:

MUD 7.707.422 votos (56,2%) y 112 dip (67%) / Psuv 5.599.025 (40,8%) votos y 55 dip (32,93%) El sistema chavista de 2010 benefició a la MUD

— Eugenio G. Martínez (@puzkas) December 8, 2015

That is self explanatory. The comment means that the gerrymandering in the end benefited the MUD, a normal occurrence as gerrymandering is designed to protect low votes but when the votes become too important in the other side then it backfires.

My predictions were as follow:
"So I am going to go with 96 seats and 16% more votes for MUD than for PSUV. Why not? As crazy as any other prediction to be found around. My optimist outcome is 18% ahead with 101 and my pessimist is 13% with 92."

I got the seats wrong but I got the spread right: 56.2-40,8 = 15,4.

I did not get the seats right because against my own instincts I had a general shift in voting pattern across the country when in fact that pattern was less than even. A stupid mistake for more opposition leaning areas even though I did give them less shift than elsewhere, but not enough. Thus the bonus seats for the opposition. An error that delights me, by the way.

At any rate, predicting the MUD-PSUV difference that close makes me quite happy. My reasons not to buy into the optimism of most pollsters was right, my knowledge of the electoral map remained sound even if weaker than for previous election due to lack of time for proper study and update. {end of back patting}

A good basis for guessing atr the next presidential election, sooner than what you may expect.... and governor due December 2016.