The next few months for Venezuela

Let's go beyond what qualifies as the "mundane" for the regime. Let's not focus on the organized looting, or the spontaneous one.  Let's not delve on the idiocies of the regime which claims that looting and forcing to sell at a loss will encourage production and lower unemployment. Let's just say that what started with the Daka looting over ten days ago is a mere politico-electoral ploy from the regime, that they never quite meant it the way it turned out.

Yet there will be consequences. Which ones?


I am not going to write as a pontificating economist. Firstly, I am not one. Secondly, you do not need to be a graduate from Ivy League School of Business to guess that the odds for Venezuela to enter a deep recession next year are in the 99%+.  The Maduro regime has made a massive blunder by destroying the commercial sector which is what holds together the financial and productive sectors.  Without commerce to distribute the goods around the country there is diminished receipts for the manufacturing sector, and there are no commercial benefits that go to the banks so they cannot invest in production ventures. If you do not understand this generality, if you do not agree with this, then do not waste your time reading further.


Venezuela is a very difficult country to work in.  The inherent flexibility of any commercial sector has made the Venezuelan one able to cope more or less with the situation making sure it all did not fall apart earlier, as it is about to happen.  Logistics are tremendously complicated in a country where the inefficient regime makes harbors unworkable, does not maintain properly highways and infrastructure in general, create rules after rules that inhibit commerce, etc. Furthermore, commerce is particularly understanding with the difficulties of many producers in ways that the banking system cannot or will not. I will refer you to the glaring example of AgroIsleña which nationalization 3 years ago has created havoc in Venezuelan agricultural output.

And in case the difficulties alluded to in the preceding paragraph were not enough, commerce must deal with an inflation above 50% that is joined to the corruption of the currency control that includes nice features such as retroactive devaluations where the regime forces you to pay old debts at new larger prices, wiping out any earnings you may have managed.  Thus the calculation of restocking costs has become a true dark science in Venezuela where you need to calculate selling prices by balancing what you think the market may pay for the goods you want to offer against your wild bet as to what you will need to fork in order to replenish your shelves. Any error may make you look like Shylock or may send you into bankruptcy.

The regime has used the rules it made to control the economy as a paltry excuse to punish the economic actors for the mistakes of the regime. And this is where it all centers: who will want to keep playing a trumped game knowing now for sure that there is no way you can protect yourself from the main abuses, and even less hope of winning your case.

If we assume that the regime "never meant it that way", which I think it did but that is my opinion, then what can the regime do to restore some equilibrium? Nothing. The regime does not have enough money available to refurbish the depleted shelves, if anything because corruption would take too much of a bite out of whatever the regime would be willing to settle with. Can the regime replace the commercial sector? No. We have for that the glaring failures of AgroIsleña now a derelict AgroPatria; we have the failures of the Bicentenariao chain holding courtesy of left over French management, and the Mercal who only offer goods on occasion, according to arrival, numbering people's arm for their turn in line when necessary. The state distribution system as it is is on the verge of instituting ration cards.  If the regime wants also to pick up malls and electronics it will only add more strain to what it is doing today, and further corruption and black market.

Considering all of this, what can we expect, not even for next year, for next month already?

First, people are going to empty their meager savings to shop for whatever they can shop. I went myself to a Locatel (refusing to shop in any taken over shop refusing to profit from the misery of others) and spent several K bolivares on stuff that I do not need yet but that I know I shall consume in the next 6 months, from soap to acetaminophen.  I did not buy electronics because I have all that I need and I am not going to buy a refrigerator just because the one I have is sixteen going on seventeen.

Second, surviving commerce is not going to be able to replenish shelves or will do so in part, and ONLY after the regime guarantees them access to a stable currency rate.  The consequences are immediate, beyond the empty shelves: a whole bunch of people are going to go jobless in the next very few months.

Third, our quality of life is going to go down south. Commerce also provides spares parts and once a store is on its knees it will, if it does, only buy a minimum of spare parts, those that it is sure can fly away from the shelves really fast before any inspector shows up.  Now, when my refrigerator breaks down, I may not be able to get a new compressor, nor a new refrigerator.

Fourth, production will be affected faster than what you know. Because in addition of needing to import raw materials that the regime intends to control more than ever, by purchasing it all themselves before they sell it back to you, we also need a lot of supplies that will not be readily available anymore (and many already missing before last week crisis).  For example at work I need car spare parts, electrical supplies, safety implements for workers, etc. If I cannot find these within reasonable delays I may have to shut down, first a day here or there, then a week here or there and then close down once and for all.

Let me illustrate you the perversity of the system. For example safety equipment for workers are already difficult to get. If I cannot get them anymore what should I do? Endanger my workers? Risk a punitive fine by INPSASEL that could bankrupt me as they cannot care less whether I can find the supplies?  I better close shop.

Fifth, as the regime relies on sales taxes and income tax and fines to pay for its public workers (the rest is paid by oil, rounding up numbers if you allow me), it will lose significant income with all the consequences you can imagine.  Will the regime ensure purchasing power of the public sector? Yeah, right...Some of my clients depend in part of contract from the regime to supply Mercal. If the regime stops paying, how long can they hold?

Sixth, seventh, eighth.....  you get the cascade picture.

The regime has put itself in a corner. It has either to back down badly and badly fast, or it has to go all the way with its open dictatorship plan that I doubt it has much capacity to implement in the long run as it needs to start by internal purges.  Whatever the regime decides we can expect next year a major degradation in living conditions forcing
massive repression which will not be able to stop violence, a violence that I must say will start mostly from the henceforth supporters of the regime.

The regime has no capacity to raise fast oil production to get the money it needs to import all the country needs and no capacity to spread it in case it could miraculously increase oil production and revenue; or at least tell Cuba and China to fuck off on their indentured share of oil.

Thus 2014 is a sure crisis waiting for us.

Carta abierta a Nicolás Maburro Maduro

¿Y ahora que Nicolás?

Bosch tiene tu ficha

Te escribo esta carta tuteándote porque quiero apostar a que si algún día la leas, la entiendas. Me parece que en tus años de canciller no has entendido el uso correcto del 'Usted', y menos el respeto que se le debe a la gente. Por ahí decían que tu eras de trato amable y dialogante pero yo nunca me lo creí. Siempre fuiste un flojo y como se sabe la flojera es la madre de todos los vicios. Tus meses en Miraflores nos han confirmado esto, la ira, la soberbia, la envidia, la avaricia, la gula y hasta la lujuria.

Claro está que no creo que este texto llegue a tus manos. No importa, yo escribo para que quede constancia, para que sea una argumento mas en contra de los que pagarán el desastre que estas dejando, que no puedan usar la excusa del "Yo no sabia. Yo solo cumplía ordenes". Por lo menos alguno que otro chaburro chavista lo leerá y me mentará, demostrando que en algún clavo le dí.

Lo que has hecho la semana pasada no tiene nombre. No es que hayas echado a todo el comercio de Venezuela al basurero. Total, siempre fue el plan de Giordani y Jaua y otros locos de erradicar el capitalismo de los otros, no necesariamente el de ellos. Es que has arruinado al país.  Nicolás, yo se que no tienes la capacidad de entenderlo, pero sin comercio no funciona ni la producción, ni la finanza. Y sin los tres tampoco hay salud, educación, cultura, deporte, vida..... No existe experiencia histórica donde el estado haya asumido el comercio y haya sido un éxito. Simplemente no existe. Claro, con tu educación defectiva no lo vas a saber. El problema es que tu soberbia no te ha permitido buscar la gente que si sabe de eso. Los únicos que dejas que se te acerquen traen la envidia y juntos nos dejan la ira.

Todo empezó, claro, cuando diste un golpe en enero para agarrarte la presidencia de un Chávez ya muerto, jodiendo a Cabello.  Eso es problema de el y no se me pasaría por la cabeza defenderlo. Una vez que pusiste el dedo en el engranaje del mal, no podíamos sorprendernos cuando hiciste trampa y te robaste la elección de abril.  La sorpresa ese día no fue que te robes la elección: es que ya eras tan malo, habías perdido tantos votos, que tuviste que hacerlo. Y eso que en aquellos días todavía medio escuchabas a gente como Merentes que por mas sinvergüenza que sea por lo menos tenía una media noción de como se bate el cobre en una economía.

Tuviste tu chance de empezar a liquidar el nefasto legado económico de Chávez y no lo hiciste. A el no le tembló la mano nunca para robarse lo que sea necesario para comprar una elección.  Pero el tuvo siempre el instinto de dejar algo en pie, para la próxima elección. Claro, sabiendo que estaba condenado no se preocupo de la vorágine de corrupción y desorganización que creó con la Misión Vivienda.  La diferencia es que Chávez siempre le robó mas a las arcas publicas que al privado y tu no entiendes eso, saqueando a todos parejo. Es el famoso cuento de la gallina de los huevos de oro. Ahora se murió el pobre animal. El año que viene puedes olvidarte del impuesto sobre la renta y del IVA. Ya vas a ver que haces.

Pero eso si, desde el pasado abril se te ve la gula y la avaricia en la cara, hasta la lujuria por el poder se te nota, mucho mas que cualquier lujuria por cualquier primera combatiente. Hiciste un cerco con los mas atrasados comunistas que crees te darán todo el poder que ni Chávez tuvo. Giordani volvió de superhombre al ruedo, con Ramirez que ha sido el pirata saqueador mas grande de nuestra historia, por lo alto que es y por lo que dejó que saquearan de PDVSA. Ahora estás en la lona, sin entender que esa chusma, ideológicamente fracasada y cuyo único superpoder es el resentimiento, te ha traicionado, a sabiendas o no, ya no importa.

Al fin y al cabo todo esto no te preocupa: estás cumpliendo con el mandato de los cubiches que controlan el país y que te controlan ya hace décadas, parece.  Los cubiches saben usar a los flojos, siempre lo han hecho, son maestros en chulearse a la gente y reclutar la ayuda necesaria.  El problema tuyo Nicolás es que has cruzado una linea de la cual no hay retorno. No lo digo por Venezuela, al fin y al cabo el muro de Berlín que era una cosa mucho mas seria y terrible que el chavismo cayó.  Todo cae por su propio peso algún día y la revolución de mentira ahora que se ha vuelto basura va a caer mas rápidamente de lo que tu crees.

El problema que tienes Nicolás es que cuando mandaste a saquear a Daka metiste otro dedo en un engranaje aun mas fatal que el primero. No solo no tienes legitimidad pero ni a legalidad puedes pretender ahora. Presides un sistema donde un grupo se coge lo que quiere, cuando quiere, sin explicaciones. Es la mafia, mas nada. Y todos esos malandros, Nicolás, para que lo sepas, te van a culpar a ti de todas la fechorías que cometieron y tu lo pagarás. No te preocupes que ni yo ni la oposición te lo vamos a cobrar. ¿Como haríamos? Los que te lo van a cobrar son tus seguidores cuando los anaqueles no se vuelvan a llenar, los militares corruptos a quien le tumbaste el negocio, los boliburgueses que dejaste embarcados. Y hasta tus mismos radicales cuando ya no queden ni casas para saquear. Puede ser que venga el día que ni en Cuba te reciban.

Ya no importa si ganas o no en diciembre, y que conste que yo creo que ni con trampa vas a ganar porque presiento que mas votos pierdes con el saqueo que los que crees ganar.  Aunque todavía no sea obvio para todos ya es muy tarde para ti: la semana pasada pasaste a la historia de la infamia y de eso ya nadie te puede rescatar. Es mas, hasta las culpas de Chávez te las van a endosar. Vas a ser mas que el hijo de Chávez, vas a heredar todas sus deudas y desaciertos, ademas de pagar lo tuyos. Prepárate.

Why I am not covering the "enabling law"

Yesterday the regime managed to boot out enough opposition representatives or blackmail/buy enough to its side that it got the magical 99 number to vote the enabling law.  Such a momentous moment (redundancy intended) should be covered duly. But I'll pass for a few reasons:

First, I have covered already the essential, the truly fascist nature of that law voted yesterday in first reading and certain now to pass the second vote next week.

Second, we have been, as far as I am concerned, into a bona fide dictatorship since 2010, at the very least. This law changes nothing, it just simplifies the legal aspects of the regime, in a "retroactive way" on all the abuses committed in recent months.

Third, derived from second, Maduro and the regime are already doing all what they want about the economy. Redundantly again, the law is a mere "legal" stamp and maybe an additional excuse to settle scores inside chavismo.

Fourth, a regime that knows it has the right on his side, that feels confident and supported, that holds already a decisive majority in the parliament does not need such a show.  That enabling crap is a mark of weakness that pushes us over the brink. Why bother about the details?

What is more important to cover is how a huge chunk, a majority chunk of the Venezuelan population, not all of them, by far, chavistas, are only too happy to let private enterprise sink, without defending it, without being aware of the consequences. And the opposition MUD is at least in part responsible because for meager electoral calculations they are too afraid to confront the regime as it should be confronted even if it were to cost them a few town-halls next December. Apparently they actually think that the regime will "respect" whatever victories they will get.  After the video below you KNOW that the only way out is through some from of violence. We cannot escape it because those in charge today are seeking a violent confrontation.



This video is remarkable on many aspects that most commentators that are P.C. will not dare to tell you.

You do not need to understand the words at all.

The anguish of the store owner who prefers to be outright looted instead of sealing his death by the slow process of being forced to sell at a loss everything.

The anguish of the store clerks that know that the owners have worked very hard for their store and that she and other clerks are going to be jobless tomorrow.

The "public servants" there trying to calm them down and take them away from the cameras of the local TV or whomever is filming this.  Their faces betray that they are not happy with what they are forced to do. Yet, they are too far gone to take a stand on ethics.

And the non P.C. part I promised. the owners are of middle eastern origins. They are still sort of fresh from the boat (10 years?). They have probably supported Chavez for his love to anything Muslim against anything US and/or Jewish. And now they are paid in kind.  Though admittedly they may be from the Christian minorities. But it does not make any difference: the regime is ready to throw to the wolves whoever it takes.

A regime that has allowed dozens of such scenes this week and that has decided to let them keep recurrent for the next few weeks, until election time at least, is a regime that has lost all humanity, that has fully assumed its position of a gang of thieves that leads the servile and morally corrupt majority portion of the country. Why should I bother covering the enabling law?  The only thing worth discussing is ways out of this nightmare.

To conclude I would like you to come back to a post I wrote a little bit over a year ago "When mediocrity and resentimiento will all over".  And then you will understand why I suffer from a Cassandra complex.....

From rabipelao courts to public lynching: a day of contradictions in the regime

A regime on overdrive to survive has no qualms exploring interesting ways to reach results and contradict itself as it goes, as often as needed.  If you needed evidence that Maduro is grasping for straws, you get them in the last couple of days.

Let's start with the title.  This morning I was writing that Maduro was proposing/ordering kangaroo courts to send the owners of stores he does not like faster to jail.  But tonight I have to write that he wants now "el pueblo" to take the initiative and seize looters.   There are many problems with this. First Maduro recognizes that the looting problem is big enough to deserve a stronger response when 24 hours ago it was mere isolated incidents.  Second, if rabipelao courts are good enough for Daka's owners why not send looters to the same courts? The answer to these contradictions is that Capriles went on record saying what we already all knew from pictures in twitter: the looters are directed by PSUV operatives. And I add since there is no way to prove it at this point, that this is the way chosen by the regime to pay these operatives in view of the dirty work required from them until mid December.

Todos los focos de saqueos,anarquía,caos,son dirigidos por el psuv para después decir que somos nosotros,alertas!
— Henrique Capriles R. (@hcapriles) November 12, 2013

All flash points of looting, anarchy chaos are directed by the PSUV and then they will blame it on us. Be alert!

Another fascinating contradiction is that after having started the worst wave of looting in Venezuela since 1989, and by far, Maduro today asked people to come and invest in the country.  In a day, by the way, where Venezuelans bond dropped as the international trust in the country is about junk bond status.  Can we assume that Maduro is stupid enough to contradict himself so blatantly so fast?  Well, maybe, but there must be something else too.

As he was saying that, today we also learned that car battery manufacturers were intervened, that stores such as shoe stores were threatened, that looting started to reach small store owners, of the neighborhood quality. What gives? Possibly he wants to convey overseas that the only ones to worry are the Venezuelan businesses who are unreliable and should be replaced by foreign ones.  But even this generous hypothesis from my part rings hollow because Maduro had the chutzpah to ask Venezuelan business people to bring back home the dollars they have stashed overseas, on the week where he mad private business lose millions of dollars that cannot be recovered ever. No, what Maduro was truly announcing was his economic vision, believe it or not: no more private business in Venezuela besides the big ones in association with the regime. I will note that someone commented to me today that the regime is going to have to nationalize now Daka and related because the owners are not going to refurbish the stores or the inventory; that this was a logical step because after having ruined agriculture and manufacturing the last stand of private business was commerce and banking. And banking he does not need to move against because the regime is the main driver of cash through the system and thus banks will not rise against the regime.

And yet there is another major contradiction but of a more subtle nature to understand. Today finally the Nazional Assembly managed to get rid of one of the opposition representatives which through the viciousness of Venezuelan politics will be replaced by a safe pro Maduro vote (though rumor has that he has been extorted though his properties in Monagas to make sure his future votes are the ones wished for; such as the two other opposition votes brought to chavismo though due extortion).  This beyond undemocratic maneuver is to get Maduro the wished for enabling law to deal with corruption and economics.  But does he need it? And this is where the contradiction lays because this week with the looting and the announcement of the kangaroo courts, and that he will limit what a business can make in earnings, Maduro is doing already what he would do with the enabling law. Clearly he does not need it. Or does he?

Let's read two of Leopoldo Lopez tweets today:

El conflicto interno del gobierno no solo es politico. Hay un enfrentamiento entre mafias de poder, narcos con chapa de altos funcionarios.
— Leopoldo López (@leopoldolopez) November 13, 2013

The internal conflict inside the regime is not only political. There is a confrontation between mafias fo power and drug traffickers with high public servant badges.

Quienes son los cadiveros? Publica la lista Maduro. Quienes son los directores d esas empresas? A quien responden en el gobierno?
— Leopoldo López (@leopoldolopez) November 13, 2013

Who are those that who benefited greatly from CADIVI [currency control]? Publish the list Maduro. Who are the directors of these businesses? To whom where they linked inside the regime?

Leopoldo says on twitter what no air-wave media will allow him to say because such is the extent of censorship that the regime has gone out to ask that the word "looting" is not pronounced. And with that he puts his finger on the true pressing concerns of Maduro, concerns that he can only solve with an enabling law that gives him powers to deal with his internal enemies, not the democratic opposition that he is already screwing fine without any extra law, thank you!

To get rid of any opposition muscle it is enough to apply Marxist theories of end to private property. Now the private sector has been so weakened that a reaction like 2002 is not only impossible but the victims of governmental abuse remain silent, will not even publish a bland press communique least the regime damages more than their properties: their families and their lives.  But to get rid of tribal factions inside chavismo.........

These contradictions and actions of some of the regime spokespeople (Cabello is strangely subdued in an occasion where he should be giving a declaration a minute) mean something else: Maduro has allied with the radical wing of chavismo and he is trying to make a legalistic coup against the other factions of chavimso. The coup is not against democracy and the opposition, that one was done in 2010. The coup in progress is one against a chavista group which will imply by force that Venezuela will become a Marxist country where oil revenue makes life somewhat mess miserable than in other Marxist countries like Cuba or North Korea.

Then again the coup may be coming from Maduro's own entourage who is pushing him to make such idiotic decisions so as to get rid of him sooner than later.

Maduro promises us kangaroo courts (or is that rabipela'o courts?)

Bolivarian special court and jury

The regime knows it has blundered and that the organized looting it has recklessly promoted could boomerang badly. So appropriately Maduro announced yesterday that there will be "special courts" created to prosecute those that "speculated" on prices. Considering that anything above 1% is considered speculation by chavismo that means that we are all a target.  For good measure, since clearly the Nazional Guard and the Police are often either helping the looters or unwilling to confront them he asked the chavista militia to ensure the security of the threatened stores. In fact, he wants to make sure the militia gets its share of the loot.

Of course, these kangaroo courts are unconstitutional although for chavismo they will be made legal. Maybe we shall call them rabipelado courts since the Common Possum is the lone, I think, Marsupial of our continent.  Militia is equally unconstitutional, but who's counting?

We even had a military jerk bitching in cadena that the opposition was mocking the people in line at Daka. They cannot even get that one right, we are condemning them for taking advantage of the misfortune of someone to make a gain.

Forging on with faascism....

País de mierda

From Electrodomesticonacht to electrodomesticowoche?

The country is in shock. Well, part of it anyway, the decent one to which I am sure I belong to. The other one, the chavista one and the "I cannot care less, dame lo mio", which is the stuff that electoral chavista majorities are made of, kept looting stores here and there, from Puerto La Cruz to Cabimas. For all the Maduro protest that he has nothing to do with the disaster he has started a stream of low burn looting here and there that he has only himself to blame. Furthermore, it is not that the regime seems unable to control the situation, it seems that the regime is unwilling to do so. Regarding the degeneration in values of the countries, well, we have Chavez to blame for it, turning the horror of the 1989 Caracazo into an acceptable chavista family values in 2013.


Maybe Daka was an "acceptable" target for a diverse assortment of idiots, but today it is clear that the small guy in your small neighborhood appliance store is also paying the price.  I have nothing to add to what I have been posting steadily since last Saturday. I am appalled, and even more, an expression I heard today "depresion politica" which I am sure readers need no help to translate.  What depresses me further is to read foreign accounts, even from my fellow bloggers that do not reside in Venezuela anymore and that, I am sorry to say, are not getting it.  But, then again, I am here and tonight words fail me anyway.

Thus I can only leave you with a fabulous Weil cartoon, again, more devastating than ever with an intended primitive child like drawing; and a video of one of the looting, in Cabimas, maracucho accent included.

"justice" "values" "democracy"

The Electrodomesticonacht plot thickens

Gustavo Coronel publishes this morning (but without links, only his sources) that the owners of Daka are not in jail, that they were in Panama where they enjoy the benefits of a diplomatic passport. There they opened with the money earned in Venezuela a mega store of appliances and as such, well, they do not need to come back to Venezuela, ever.

In short, what Coronel hints at or seems to believe was that the whole thing was an arrangement between the regime and the owners, where the looting of one store was planned and where the first people to show up to loot, or those that are in line first to buy at discount prices when a given store is not looted, are organized chavistas groups that were on short notice, and that the regime needs to satisfy and cannot these days, as it is short of cash. Let's remember that the Chines have refused the easy 5 billion in cash bail out Maduro desperately needed to buy his way through the December vote.

It is possible. After all there are pictures circulating on the Internet where the faces of the owners of Daka and Ivoo appear cozy with Arreaza, the current vice president, an antisemite. These Muslims, well, I am sorry but there is no polite figure of speech that I can find to sound PC, were in bed with Chavez since 2003 at least, as a majority of the Muslim population of Venezuela who could not believe their luck at such an idiotic anti Israel president for Venezuela.  Let's not forget that this radical Muslim stance is deeply espoused inside the regime where a PSUV representative went to Syria to "fight" next to the Assad troops.

Why not believe that Daka owners, who have secured a few millions for their future, who are probably hard workers any way, regardless of any cultural chip they may have on their shoulder, did not accept that request from the regime? A slow burning looting accompanied of obscene discount that at least recover the non speculative costs, all compensated at least in part by insurance companies and the loss of Daka in Venezuela may not be as big as one may think, and a small price to pay for your liberty to own one of the major electronic stores in Panana with the capital to expand it fast, away of the cesspool that Venezuela has become, even for them.

Thus the regime sensing a social problem did get a short term patch to satisfy its hard core followers who are nothing less but criminals, used over the last decade and a half to a life of crime and larceny and free gifts in exchange of electoral cheating, violence against the opposition, attending each Chavez rally, etc.... A controlled looting is certainly better than a generalized one, the more so when the losses are diluted courtesy of the arbitration in currency. That is, the real losses of the Daka episode will be borne by the people, the losses of Daka and its cronies in the regime being duly minimized by further looting of the state coffers.

The question is, will the looting of Daka Valencia be enough?

PS: of course, the reputation of Maduro as a pathological liar is confirmed since he claims that the owners of Daka have been arrested.  Not only they have not, but their silence at the loss of their commercial empire in Venezuela seems to confirm all that is written above.  Venezuela is indeed a narco-laundering state.....

PS2: this, of course, does not change an iota that the order of Maduro to loot stores, that throwing to the wolves business people to pay for his own mismanagement is absolutely reprehensible and will get him one day a jail sentence.

Not so random thoughts on Electrodomesticonacht

UPDATED
At 24 hours from the start of the festivities, we can put together a few thoughts.

It does not matter who the looted store owner were

El Nacional economy journalist Blanca Vera Azaf is strikingly wrong when she so lightly points out in a string of tweets that the

Unos boliburgueses enchufados tenían negocito con altos funcionarios del gobierno que les vendían electrodomésticos importados (1)
— Blanca Vera Azaf (@bevavera) November 10, 2013

The psychological damage is there to stay, be it a store owner chavista or not. I can vouch myself from by errands yesterday that escualido store owners in Las Americas mall knew that Daka was regime associated which did not stop them from being outraged. Even a woman working at a small cart stand selling waffles was near hysterical at what she considered a plain robbery.  This was an attack to private property and people who work truly for a living understood that perfectly.

See, shop owners know that whether you inherit, create or steal the money to open your shop, it takes hard work to keep it afloat. Maybe the owners of Daka were from middle eastern origin, maybe they got started with sweet exchange deals with the regime, but their stores were well kept, they had supplies, they created jobs, etc....  Shop owners of Venezuela understand at gut level that the way to punish the owners of Daka is not by stealing their goods, but by sending tax auditors and levy the necessary fines and taxes.  Besides, the price argument is not a good one: nobody forces you to buy in a store. It is up to the customer to do the leg work and compare stores and prices. Only particularly dumb chavistas can content themselves with one product, one quality, one store, one price.

Blanca Vera Azaf should know better than stress such distinctions which play straight into the hands of the regime......

The bolibourgeois (and Cabello) are on the defensive

But since the stores most hit at first were the bolibourgeois ones (the less linked ones were hit yesterday late, as an afterthought of the regime it seems) we must also accept that a large part of the play was done by one chavista sector hitting on another one.  What is remarkable in the strategy chosen is that it has NOTHING to do with socialism but all with mafia wars.  Had the seizure been "socialist" we would have seen an expropriation, a militarization from the start, etc...  more legalism in short, more "el pueblo" organization. What we saw was a crass destruction of the economic might of one group that displeased the other with a whole bunch of opportunists picking the remains.

Maduro and whomever pushed him (Giordani) are true ignorant

We can argue that ignoring the consequences of yesterday may be willful (I want to end capitalism) or the product of ignorance (but I only wanted to punish the bad guys). What we cannot argue is that there will be huge negative consequences that apparently they cannot see, and even less understand if they could see.

When Maduro announces that it wants the Internet providers of Venezuela to censor pages that publish the black market rate of the US dollar we can only be astounded at the stupidity of the man. In no particular order:
- Maduro ignores how Internet works, that all eventually gets to be known sooner or later, even inside China.
- Maduro thinks that the "overpricing" of Daka et al., is due at the owners being directly influenced by reading such pages.  The same idiotic argument that pushes some people to want to censor comics because it induces kids to commit crimes.
- Maduro and Giordani truly think that they are doing great and that if the currency has gone from 1 to 0,01 in 15 years it is not because of their lousy policies but because they have been sabotaged all along. Never does it cross their minds that if it were so easy to sabotage an economy Al Qaeda would have bankrupted the USA long ago.
- Maduro and Giordani apparently do not know that all regimes that pretended to control all NEVER could avoid the existence of some form of black market, not even the efficient Germans in occupied Europe during WW2.

What matters the most in Venezuela is the economy

Yesterday Daka seizure covered more expectations than the regime could hope for. The timing of the measure which certainly had a relation with covering electoral bad numbers, Capriles received by the Pope and the march convoked by the opposition yesterday has blown in their face. Indeed, all other news were shut up, EVEN that a Miss Venezuela did get yet another International beauty pageant. Everybody from tweeter to store owners in Las Americas talked about the looting and only the expected chavistas tried to put a good spin on it. I am willing to go on record that overall the result is bad for the regime, that it will not gain them much votes if any, because people that loot probably cannot be bothered to vote to begin with and know very well that whether Maduro remains in office or Capriles wins, they are more likely to preserve their loot under Capriles than a Maduro than cannot control the terrible crime wave that could tomorrow steal their loot. As for "el pueblo" what it really wants to know is whether there is somewhere milk to loot.

Added tonight

The electoral campaign numbers are bad

What Maduro et al. tried this week end is a clear reflection of their polling numbers.  Barely a month before an election that you claim you will win you do not need to pull such a stunt (and only one of the many stunts pulled such as declaring December 8 the day of Chavez remembrance).  Such a reckless call to "clean up the shelves" by Maduro only proves that he is indeed afraid of losing the majority vote IN SPITE of all the electoral cheating coming our way.  Which can only mean one thing: in chavista polls the opposition must be leading by more than 5% which is in my past estimation what the electoral cheating bonus is worth.

From my political contacts this week, and I did not visit them for poll numbers as I know how fickle and imprecise these are this time around, the Metro Caracas numbers look very good, even in the Libertador district, the jewel in the crown for chavismo that even a divided opposition may take, if barely.  But I was told of some surprising numbers in the hinterlands that may confirm that next December 9 a large majority of the Venezuelan population will be ruled by opposition mayors. Chavismo can still take comfort that the way districts are organized in the country they are still significantly ahead in the total number of mayors but these ones will have a novelty: the overwhelming majority in the local councils they enjoyed before will not exist anymore.  In short chavismo is going to lose its main patronage tool after the central administration, a large majority of town-halls.  In fact, a solid showing in those councils could make it very difficult to activate the plan B, to develop "comunas" to weaken mayors elected for the opposition.

The worse may actually come to pass for chavismo: the local elections may turn out to be a plebiscite on Maduro and this creep is helping them to become so!  He may regret Daka in a few weeks.

Even the campaign finances are bad

Another thing that we can get confirmation of with the Daka looting is that the regime does not have the means to buy votes the way it used to do under Chavez. Usually at month of any election under chavismo the regime had already occupied all the main public locations to plaster its propaganda. This time around they are rather late when they should have been earlier than usual.  Also the ubiquitous "fairs" where chavismo will distribute goods are much rarer and, I was told, less provided than in the past.  That Maduro decided to loot Daka for electoral purpose can only mean that indeed, they do not have all the money they would love to have.

Electrodomestico-nacht, the banana republic version of Kristallnacht

She supports Maduro. The good life!
Thieves of the world unite!

It is kind of eerie that tonight we commemorate the 75 anniversary of Kristallnacht when Hitler made his first large scale pogrom based on a rather minor political event in Paris.  But those are other times, in bolibanana pseudo revolution which has only in common with the Nazi of those days to be a band of thugs that turned to fascism to reach and retain power for as long as they could, to death if need be in order to avoid the punishment they so richly deserved.

And yet today may be a turning point of equal importance for the Caracas regime. Today it has crossed the line where it is now OK to loot stores to satisfy the appetites of its followers. Today it made OK to brand enemies whoever needs to be branded an enemy even if a few weeks ago it was benefiting from the association with power, a mutual benefit if I may dare say.  Today it has become clear that the regime will destroy anything it needs to destroy to remain in office. Today formalities have become unnecessary. Today the regime has demonstrated that it has no friends or foes, just moving targets.

What had started yesterday with the house appliances chain of Daka and the store of Pablo Electronica has extended tonight to many others, from Caracas to Margarita.  Everywhere the regime claims that it fights excessive price increase and yet it blunders in admitting that Daka did not work with CADIVI obtained currency, explaining why they were so pricey.

What these stores had been doing was to anticipate yet another organized robbery from the government that is preparing yet another "retroactive devaluation".  What these stores had been doing was to anticipate that the black market US dollar value was expected to cross the 60 per USD bar anytime soon.  For those late in the game, Venezuela has a tight and corrupt currency control system. What the regime did early this year and it is ready to do again within the next three months, is to fail to honor its bills at the current currency exchange and pay them AFTER the devaluation at the new currency exchange.  That is, what you obtained in good faith at X BVE for one USD, you will have to pay later at Z, Z being at least 30% more expensive. I know personally of it, I suffered the consequences earlier this year.

This is not about being associated with the regime or not, this is not about working ethically or not: what Daka et al., were doing was preparing themselves to avoid yet another major income loss as we all suffered last February, at the expense of the customer which in the end is always the one who pays even if idiots like the woman above are laughing their heads off.  The regime simply decided today to throw to the wolves the head of the directors of all the appliance stores of Venezuela, "electrodomesticos". Tomorrow it will the supermarket CEO; or maybe the liquor stores one as the hoi polloi cannot get in its usual December semi constant drunken stupor.....

It is true that nobody quite understood how in an era of drastic currency controls traditional stores like CompuMall or Beco did not manage to grow at the astounding rates like some did such as Daka or Mundo Samira or even recent newcomer Ivoo. We, those that manage businesses, knew that the only way to grow so was to be well connected with the regime, "enchufado" as Capriles call them.  Honest businesses, like ours, simply could not do so no matter how efficiently we worked, the regime allocating you foreign currency on past results, not expected economic growth.  We are thus surprised that the whole lot was dismissed so suddenly. Had it been Daka alone we could speculate that the owners felt into disfavor because they either refused to pay a bribe, or refused to "share" the profits.  That tonight most of them are in the dog house has to have a deeper political meaning.

That political meaning is not too difficult to find out. The incompetence of the regime has bankrupted the country. Now, for this electoral campaign they find themselves without money to purchase all the goodies they give around to buy votes.  What to do, oh what to do!?  Well, force those who are more efficient, that have some goods in their store rooms to supply what is missing to make the chavista voter joyful. And if the goodies of Daka do not make it all the way to the cerro, the idea remains that it shan't be long until the goods reach the chavista voter.  Because the sad reality is that the looting or taking advantage of the forced down-slide of prices today benefited more the middle class than the inhabitant of the barrio, high on the cerro.

The economical consequences are of course going to be terrible: who in his sane mind is going to invest a penny of his or her own in Venezuela as long as an asshole like Maduro remains in office?  A Maduro who, by the way, demonstrated again today how clueless and mean he is, the most lethal combination in economy.  At a time when the regime is desperate to reactivate the economy it has taken the measure that is most certain to push it into recession.

Looter's loot 

The political consequences are going to be only worse. The country will be even more divided while Maduro will be more than ever a puppet of those he needs to keep control of the populace who after today is going to expect more and more giveaways and legalized looting.  But then again, just as in Kristallnacht, the regime needs a scape goat to justify its hold on power.  Maduro will be swept aside whenever it is convenient for whomever truly holds the reins of power.  In this electrodomesticonacht Maduro appears weak and manipulated and even pusillanimous. Hitler never lost control of his assault troops like Maduro lost control of his in Valencia.  And of course when people realize that Daka et al. are not refurbishing their shelves anymore, then Maduro praised by some idiots today will be blamed by them tomorrow.

But the saddest part of all are the looters, those that were not afraid to profit from the misery of others. And this is the worst lesson of today and the darkest forebodding in my heart. Just as 75 years ago most of a nation had no qualms in letting a minority lose its livelihood and its lives. For those like the woman above published around the world from El Pais, we shall pay dearly in the future.


Bonus: video when the looting started in the Daka Valencia store this morning.  those are not people from the lower classes, this is Valencia middle class. Poor people would loot as much, see the woman above, but in the initial news when only prices were supposed to go down and people forced to pay something, poor people probably felt that Daka would be still too expensive for them.

Desperation News and Views

Daka pictures on newspapers and Twitter

UPDATED FOR LOOTING
So what is a regime that got handed the news of 5% inflation for a single month, whose main "evil" opposition leader is received by the Pope, when a "spontaneous" multigathering protest is convoked for today, that cannot hide the increasing low key riots for food, to do? It decides to sack a major electronic store chain.

Maduro ordered yesterday to seize the 5 stores of Daka, an overpriced, but then they all are, electronic/appliance chain. Allegedly the stores will be forced to recalculate their "costs" and sell all their appliances at "just price".  We assume of course that the militia and Nazional Guard in charge of the organized semi looting will be served first.  Maybe even for free. Which does not stop a country of "lambucios", from the regime or the opposition, to rush to the store to take a turn in the line and be the first ones to shop when they open again. Maduro conoce su ganado we would say in Venezuela, Maduro knows his cattle.


Yesterday I was told by reliable insiders that polls in Petare district, all the East of Caracas with about a million inhabitants and 460,000 registered voters, mostly living in old established favellas/ranchos/barrios, indicate a 2 to 1 lead for Ocariz, the current mayor, from the opposition, that has had his administration sabotaged for the last 5 years by any possible trickery from the rules book on power abuse.  This is a district that in a normal democracy should be voting 2 to 1 for any political party of leftist connotation. This is all what you need to know to understand why the regime is acting crazy for the last few weeks.

Because crazy it is. Not only ordering a government sponsored looting of a major appliance store that will surely close down after that (though the owners of Daka may be on the wrong side of the intra chavista fighting) but Maduro even announced that he would deploy anti-aerial defenses on the top of the barrios hills.  The excuse is to defend the country against bombing from the US as if the US were to spend a dollar bombing a shanty town when it only needs to decide to stop buying suddenly any oil from Venezuela to have the regime collapse within hours.  Since the US did not feel offended by this absolutely useless defense system, for good measure yesterday a journalist from the Miami Herald was arrested.  Will the US say anything before December 8?  I suggest pipsqueaking is the way to go to let self imposed ridicule flourish.

Seriously now.  Daka and Pablo Electronica (another major supplier in Caracas) may or may not be overpriced, but if they are it is due to the scarcity of foreign currency, it is due to the retroactive devaluations, it is due to the uncertain rules of the economic game. If Daka and Pablo were overpriced yesterday they were vindicated in gouging customers and hiding their earnings under the mattress until the regime struck.  The people lining in front of these stores to get a good deal today are worse parasites than were ever Daka because once they get their "cheap" refrigerator they will have nowhere to get the next one: who is going to keep investing in that line of business when the regime will steal your merchandise whenever it feels it useful?  The end road for the hoi polloi is less goods available, and true black market gouging.  See Cuba.

But the bad faith of the regime is the worse aspect of the whole scandal. We learn that when they revised the prices at Daka and Pablo they decided that the purchase receipt in dollars of the imported goods should be counted at the official 6.3 exchange rate when in fact a lot if not a majority of the stock comes at SICAD price of 10 to 15, or street value at 30 3 months ago. What stores do is an average of sorts between their three sources of currency to establish their final prices since they have no way to know what will be their next source of currency.  I am not saying that I defend Daka who may or may not have been a major abuser. What I am saying is that Daka, like any supplier of imported goods, as a irrational price cost structure that is imposed on them by the disastrous economics of the regime, a regime that punishes Daka for the mismanagement that comes from the regime.

This goes beyond "shoot the messenger", this is putting up for public lynching any retailer, in the short term. Today Daka, tomorrow the bodega of the barrio.
------------------------
UPDATE
We have pictures of Daka Valencia who seems actually to be looted straight by regime followers, starting with the people in charge.

Nazional Guards with their loot

NOTE: I forgot to go deeper earlier in that there is the possibility that the owners of Daka and Pablo may have had "arrangements" with people inside the corruption ladder of the regime for their import deals. That would not be the first time that the regime throws to the wolves people that have stopped being useful. Remember Fernadez Barruecos? Arne Chacon?

The store of Daka in Valencia has been properly sacked and we have even pictures in twitter catching Nazional Guards on motor bikes going away with their share.

And I add this: it is quite possible that in the deep cynical nature of the regime they may have decided some slow cooking organized looting to avoid a repeat of the Caracazo of 1989, one that they could not control at all with the current state of the armed forces.

Maduro/Giordani idiotic "measures" seen from ground zero: more corruption to come

Capriles and the Pope, the real
news of Wednesday

Wednesday Maduro made a cadena to announce "economic measures" that were mere administrative measures. Nothing is changed, the country's economy is tanking and the regime finds nothing better but to increase further the controls which have proven to be fail sure since 2005 at the very least, not to say ever in Venezuela.

I am not going to go into the official announcements which were in reality of a political nature, timed to hide from view that Capriles
has been received by the Pope yesterday. Instead I am going to go into what it means for me, a small businessman.  I will pick up a some of  them to dissect and you will be able on your own to infer that things are going to get worse, faster.  Besides the opposition has a detailed answer on the expected failure and experts like Santos are on it.


But first the indicators that we inherited from the gargantuan expenses made in 2011-2012 to reelect Chavez just before he croaked.

On the left the scarcity one, which means that for any given item the odds are that at least one in five stores will be out of it. Which means that for the crucial ones like flour and milk, at best one in five stores will have it. On the right you can see the monthly variation of the annual inflation rate.  What does this mean for my job? Supplies are more difficult to be found and prices are increasing. As a consequence I will need to keep increasing my own prices and stop any hiring, any investment project because I am not sure whether I will be able to keep producing. Not making money, producing. We have forgotten about making money, content to survive in the increasingly faint hope of better days. Note: you can update the charts above with a 5.1% inflation just for October 2013 accompanied by a 22.4% scarcity index, as ADMITTED by the regime...

The worst administrative measure Maduro announced was the intention of the regime to basically control all prices relevant to your average household. I will note that all the control schemes created since 2003 have led us to the current situation, an economy overly regulated, with extensive price controls that still manages 50% inflation. What does this mean for me? Well, nobody works extended periods of time at a loss.  Some of my clients will be deeply affected and will either buy less, produce less or close altogether. Less clients, less work for me.

The regime will increase the military control and inspections over business.  A renewed wave of fear will sweep manufacturers which will be tempted to produce as little as possible to avoid formation of stock which can be seized by any inspector or any armed lout trying to score brownie points. You need to understand that having a few days of stock in your warehouse so as to plan well your distribution schedule across the country is considered as hoarding by the regime. What the regime wants is a "dispatch at once" policy which is unpractical and actually increases costs.  Since my business is upstream to food producers there is a chance that I will get a nasty inspection which of course will find nothing wrong with me but will be a waste of time and create psychological trauma to the employees.

That hoarding specter is one that is so ridiculous that I cannot understand why Maduro keeps harping on it.  Jorge Roig of the business association state it clearly last Monday: "there is not a gram of food that does not move without the government control".  As I have described already in May 2010, gotten worse since, to transport any food item across Venezuela you need a government permit. It is thus EXTREMELY difficult to hoard, or at least to hoard in large amounts. The only possible hoarding these days is at the level of SMALL shopkeepers and of sheer physical storage space availability we are never talking more than a few days supply in 99% of the cases reported.

The regime will once again screen the registry for all business that ask for dollars for imports.  Since it is unable and unwilling to do the audit work to detect fraudulent business, it it will probably end up forcing everyone to re-register, or some variation of the theme.  This is terrible because to import anything you need about a dozen of "solvencias" and permits which are not time synchronized and which you must all have valid at the same time before you can ask for dollars. If you have to process some of them again just for the sake of it, that means that you may not be able to get your act together for several months and cannot import raw materials for that long. For my business just to get all of these permits anew would mean a time investment of at least three months in which I could run out of all my stocks of raw material, forcing me to close down. And I run a business that is favored in that I am involved in food production!

But that is not all, the regime threatens to become the sole importer. That is, I will have to ask the regime to buy for me what I need to work.  I will let you imagine how an inefficient regime can guarantee me timely supply of what I need to work, at what price and under which bribing conditions......  Chigüire Bipolar calls this new center for import the centralization of all corruption.  We even have Giordani announcing that the regime will give the private sector less dollars to punish them, as if the private sector was responsible for the robbery committed by chavista operatives with bolibourgeois like Derwick Associates who by themselves may have stolen as much as 2 BILLION dollars.

In short, what Maduro has proposed yesterday is in fact inapplicable. Why do I write this, in all confidence? Because the people that have been UNABLE and UNWILLING to apply controls porperly in the past are not only going to be unable to apply the new more complex controls but are probably not going to look forward to it. Not because they fear to be discovered in their corruption, incompetence and inefficiency, but because today they are so brash that they simply will resent anything that delays their cashing in of mega bribes.

It is that simple.

But unfortunately the country in the process will grind into a standstill and then shit will happen.  You read it here, first or not, it does not matter, it is all common sense.

As a bonus I will publish below the flow chart of corruption in Venezuela as investigated by INFODIO and our great @AlekBoyd.  This what Maduro needs to look into if he wants to get back the cash he so sorely lacks today.

Voluntad Popular is ready for the major poltical leagues

Today's press conference at Voluntad Popular

Long time readers of the blog remember that I have been following the growth of Voluntad Popular, Leopoldo Lopez vehicle, since almost its birth. I covered the official launch in Valencia, very soon 4 years ago.  Since then we have kept in touch and monitored its progress. I am happy to report today that Voluntad Popular has graduated to the major league.  Disclaimer: even though I have voted for them or supported their formula I would never be an unconditional for them or anyone else (I did vote Machado for the 2012 primaries even though Lopez rallied Capriles).

These past 4 years I have written about their growth, their initiatives, at least when these could be of interest for people living overseas such as the Venezuelans trying to vote in embassies and the help VP tried to bring them. Never mind writing often on the epic battle of Lopez against the regime attempt to block his political career, a battle he won in international courts even though the regime keeps playing a deaf ear to its international obligations. Then again, when has fascism paid heed to legality?

The true trilogy of evil: empty
wallets (slang), high crime and
scarcity of all, including toilet paper

I have thus being privileged to be a regular guest at VP, be it when Lopez launched his candidacy, or a few days after he gave up his ambition to favor the one of Capriles in 2012, already itching for the good fight against Chavez electoral machinery. A few months ago I was invited to tour their new headquarters, a flat on Centro Plaza, a good deal in a rather derelict building but aren't they all in Caracas these days..... I returned this week to make the promised report, coincidentally with the reply of Lopez to the fascist regime attack against him and Capriles with Machado. The true "triology of evil" that Maduro pretends to believe us these guys incarnate is in fact the trilogy of poverty, crime and scarcity. With the poster just produced today on the left for show.

The headquarters of Voluntad Popular are bristling with activity, full of energy. And not only because in one month we have elections, I already had that impression a few months ago when they had just moved in and there were half of the folks I saw today.

What welcomes you when waiting for your host to fetch you is an exhibition hall. A long hallway that can also be used for other purposes is decorated this month with a selection of political cartoons from Zapata, Rayma and Edo. It is called "La Ventana", the window, as a place where prosecuted folks are welcome to expose, and other to come and look over and see what the regime would like to disappear.

Defending freedom of expression.

This is, in short, the tone of the visit: the rather young and dynamic team working for Voluntad Popular leaves no stone unturned, from mere electoral activities to more intellectual pursuits, even if in a hurry. But we are a country in a hurry, in a hurry to leave behind chavismo, so I can relate. Contemplation must be brief and purposeful.

The call center

There are rooms for everything, and all full of busy people. Below I will spare you the numerous meeting rooms and just show you where the action takes place (by the way, all rooms sparsely crowded with items, we sense that they want to have as little as possible on their desks least some repressive raid were to happen: whatever the Nazional Guard seizes, personal or not, is rarely returned even if you are 100% innocent).

Media Watch

Let's start with the call center, the key to any serious political organization.  There are about five rows as the one in the picture above. I did talk briefly with one of the guys in charge and they are happy with their work, having created in a few month a structure that allows them to avoid the use of expensive pollsters, at least on simple issues. I will not give you details since it is after all their weaponry, but I can tell you that their own "polling" matches rather well the few polls found on newspapers.  Of course, almost no one looked more than 30 years old.  In fact, I felt like an old troll in many rooms.....

VP's hope

Next is the room monitoring the media. Today since all media TV is either silenced or controlled by the government 5 TV sets are more than enough, and two were off....  There is way more work going on the computers where web pages, twitter and newspapers are closely monitored.

The electoral campaign is monitored from several rooms.  In the one below there are young designers trying to come up with all the necessary material.

Campaign creation room

In another there is support to the candidates with the chart pinning the picture of each candidate running for town hall. Limited means make them run more "traditional" material visual aids. There are about 40 running and they are optimistic about getting a significant representation. What is noteworthy here is to observe that on the map there are everywhere. True, maybe Zulia, Falcon and Bolivar are still rather empty, but everywhere else VP is running a guy, sometimes in big tickets like San Cristobal or Maturin. At any rate, in barely 4 years, VP has cultivated a growing nationwide presence, something that cannot be said for, say, UNT, and with caveats for PJ.

Last but not least, Voluntad Popular is finishing up its program and political concepts. The Orange book will be published soon and I saw the provisional cover.  Well, they are still working on the set up but the good thing is that after months and years of discussion across the country with the many grassroots groups they are finally getting there. It is not useless to remind folks that VP was the first political party since 1998 to hold an internal primary. Chavismo had some but they forgot about the whole thing as soon as they observed that some dared criticize Chavez proposals.  And the others are content in their pyramidal set up, if there is indeed a pyramid to be found for them.

Simonovis remembered

Details are not forgotten. In an office I did find out that political prisoners are not forgotten and several cartoons asking for the freedom of Simonovis were on the wall.

To finish this post, let's talk about the press conference system of VP.  I receive on my mail regularly, at least once a week, a press communique of the weekly agenda. It is about the response of VP to a particular situation. It may be held in the press room of the headquarters or somewhere else, in particular if it is locally related to a given campaign. But the most salient feature if you ask me is that the official position of VP is not always announced by Leopoldo Lopez. In fact, there is great care taken to promote as many voices from VP as possible and many spokespeople are formed by giving these press conferences and holding the questions.  VP may be the creation of Leopoldo Lopez when he left his original associates but he has had the wisdom to make the party a real political group, a confluence of ideas and interests.

Presenting the poster.

Today it was Lopez in charge of the conference.  Normal, he had been attacked vilely last week and there was a need to a direct reply.  I am not going to go into the details of that short and to the point briefing, which is by the way, always the case, short and to the point, whomever is in charge of directing the event at VP.  I did do a live tweet that you can check here if you wish. But live tweet is not the way to cover the energy of Lopez. And I must say, a certain anger I sensed by being branded a fascist when he has been repeatedly the victim of a regime that does not bother much anymore in democratic pretense.

The highlight of the presentation I would say was to once again ridicule Maduro. For him being so worried about Twitter removing 6000 fake accounts out of his 1 million plus followers is equivalent to a teenage girl tantrum, according to Lopez. Again, more evidence that Maduro is located between pusillanimous and ridiculous. The ever repeated leitmotiv that no matter what corruption is denounced, there is NEVER a big fish toppled by it was not forgotten.

The communication machinery, a concern from the very start by Lopez and Voluntad Popular, is smooth and quick to respond. When I was starting to put together this post I received already the summary of Lopez intervention and this video which is quite chilling if you understand Spanish. There is a clear expose of what is the real "evil trilogy" of Venezuela, shortages, corruption, violence, etc...



The web site of Voluntad Popular, a work always in progress in real web sites, is full of news, videos and how to join it. But you can also follow or visit  @VoluntadPopular to see pictures of all the constant activities of the group across Venezuela, some impressive considering the small locales they visit. They also report with pictures on the nasty stuff they find around. You can also follow @leopoldolopez who happens to have 100,000 more followers than @nicolasmaduro, interestingly. Real followers I would bet as Twitter does not seem in the need to clean up fake accounts with Lopez as it did with Maduro....

I am no political expert to judge how successful Voluntad Popular is, we will need to see if they get at least 15-20 town-halls next December. However after this visit I have a sense that whatever it is that VP is doing, it seems to be doing it right. And certainly the constant harassment the regime has against VP is proof that these young activists are having an effect.

Lopez has read VN&V

To conclude, a picture I took during a short meeting I had with Lopez's team at the end of the visit, where he posed along the VN&V web page screen to greet readers of this blog.

Milagros Socorro lo dice diafanamente

Hace mucho tiempo que dejé de publicar artículos apareciendo en periódicos o otros blogs. Ya la gente fuera de Venezuela, y por lo menos algunos aquí, saben de que se trata la farsa que padecemos desde que el "gigante eterno" estafó al país una primera vez en 1998. Los que ayudaba a promocionar antes con mi modesto esfuerzo de blog ahora son estrellas fuera, dejando a la gente pasmada por la idea de un país que produzca gente del calibre de Milagros Socorro también produzca a Maduros y los ponga a mandar al desmadre la patria.

Hoy Milagros Socorro publica en su columna dominical del Nacional algo de suma importancia. En ella nos explica que el problema económico de Venezuela es que NUNCA ha existido el capitalismo, algo a lo cual siempre he concurrido. Por lo tanto el reflejo nuestro, como pueblo, es de esperar que el estado nos ofrezca todo.  La terrible consecuencia de esta visión es que no creemos, ni deseamos que sea posible, que nuestro futuro dependa de nuestra trabajo, nuestros esfuerzos, nuestros valores y la ética. Somos un país de vivos esperando al vivo que nos guiará a la tierra prometida, antes la "del ta'barato, dame dos", y hoy la de las misiones para todos, empezando por la misión CADIVI para enriquecer los corruptos de la boliburguesia.

Nos sorprende al final Milagros Socorro al decir en voz clara que Henrique Capriles sigue por la misma vía, que si bien quiere devolvernos algo de libertad jurídica, y humana, no parece tener ninguna prisa en liberar la economía, cayendo por adelantado en ese temible reflejo de los que llegan al poder en Miraflores "ellos no pudieron controlar la economía pero yo sí". Esa renuencia a prometer la pronta eliminación de CADIVI, a prometer que las misiones se quedan pero serán "mejor administradas", a prometer que no se va a botar a nadie por mas inútil que sea ese sueldo, tendrá un carácter electoral, tal vez. Pero no somos pocos en creer que de tanto repetirlo empieza a creérselo, o por lo menos se entrampará.  Este servidor mas de una vez expresó, en inglés, sus dudas sobre la voluntad de cambio de Capriles y la MUD. Ahora estoy encantado de leerlo en las palabras de Milagros Socorro y le doy todo su apoyo sabiendo los ataques a la cual la someterán los fanáticos de bando y bando. No puedo hacer menos que homenajear su valentía reproduciendo su texto integralmente a continuación.  Pueden escribir y apoyar a @MilagrosSocorro por twitter o twittear esta entrada.

MILAGROS SOCORRO
El verdadero error supremo
3 DE NOVIEMBRE 2013

Sorna, indignación y una especie de generalizado sentimiento de superioridad ha despertado el anuncio de Maduro en relación con el Viceministerio de la Suprema Felicidad del Pueblo Venezolano, o algo así.

Y es natural que así sea. Ya desde el nombre del nuevo mamotreto burocrático, con esa retórica estúpida y evidentemente inspirada en el anciano mundo soviético, mueve a la risa. Indigna, porque se sabe que el nuevo tinglado será cocina para grandes guisos; sumidero por donde se irán inmensas sumas que el devaluado país necesita para tantas obras y reparaciones; mampara propagandística para un régimen sustentado en la mentira y la opacidad. Y despierta una suerte de satisfacción íntima, porque todo el mundo se siente menos idiota que Maduro y definitivamente menos cursi (lo que implica una mejor formación y ese pudor que viene con la educación); todo el mundo se cree capaz de albergar mejores ideas, de establecer un sistema de prioridades mucho más realista y, definitivamente, poseedor de una seriedad y una conexión de realidad que le impedirían concebir esa idea de jeva, que es un despacho tal.

Todo esto se sustenta en el hecho de que, para muchos observadores, la felicidad es algo que no puede decretarse, entre otras cosas, porque no significa lo mismo para todos; porque está sujeta a incontables imponderables; porque, paradójicamente, cuanto más quiere apresarse más elusiva se vuelve; porque depende de un delicado equilibrio que varía con las épocas (lo que ayer te hacía feliz, hoy te deja indiferente y mañana podría incluso irritarte); y porque reviste una condición imprescindible: solo se da en libertad.

Lo sorprendente es que esas personas, que están tan correctamente persuadidas de que la felicidad solo puede existir en ausencia de controles, aceptan con la mayor sumisión la tesis según la cual la felicidad de los pueblos tiene, como condición primordial, la vigilancia de la economía. Los mismos que se ríen ante la mención de que la felicidad puede ser planificada por un gobierno, admiten mansamente que la producción, el mercado y los precios pueden ser diseñados por un gobierno. Esos que califican a Maduro de demagogo y populista, tienen décadas diciendo que el gobierno es responsable de las necesidades de la sociedad y, por tanto, de él deben derivar empleo, producción de bienes y servicios y, en suma, un marco de regulaciones que constriña toda actividad económica.

Es más fácil hacer feliz a una comunidad (dispersando una sustancia de efecto tal en el acueducto, por ejemplo), que traer prosperidad y oportunidades mediante controles a la economía, que, finalmente, se rige por las condiciones que antes expusimos sobre la felicidad. Y, sin embargo, todos los partidos políticos, todos los discursos de todos los candidatos, en el pasado y en el presente, se cimientan en la promesa absurda de mejorar la economía… poniéndole algún tipo de torniquete.

Venezuela nunca ha tenido una economía libre. Jamás ha habido un verdadero capitalismo en Venezuela. La verdad es que todas las generaciones han procurado regímenes de controles económicos en diversos grados. Y siempre, pero siempre, han resultado negativos. Los logros económicos que el país tuvo en el pasado se debieron al enorme impulso que supone el petróleo, no hay duda; pero, a lo que voy, a que la economía supo colarse por los intersticios de las diversas formas de estrangulación de las libertades. Es decir, a pesar de la planificación.

Ahora, cuando los controles han llegado a dimensiones solo comparables con el desastre que han acarreado, los venezolanos deberíamos tener suficiente constatación de que los controles no traen más que pobreza, desabastecimiento, devaluación, desempleo, corrupción, desigualdad y falta de oportunidades.

Deberíamos, pues, reírnos a carcajadas, indignarnos y mirar por encima del hombro a quien sugiriera que la producción y la economía se estimulan poniéndoles alcabalas. Una concepción tan disparatada como la ocurrencia de hacer feliz a un colectivo desde una oficina con un nombre sacado del costurero de Kim Il-sun.

Pero lo cierto es que los mismos que se burlan de Maduro, por su dislate de imponer la felicidad a palos, aceptan sin mayor examen la propuesta de Henrique Capriles Radonski, por ejemplo, que suspende los alicates políticos, pero prolonga los económicos. Y donde diga “Hugo Chávez”, él rebautizará “Simón Bolívar”. Como si fuera concebible algo auspicioso a partir de una misión social.

Si me quedara algún ánimo libre de angustia, me reiría de todo eso.