The official 2013 VNV municipal election post

I suppose I should not break a long and on occasion distinguished electoral number crunching tradition. Even though elections have become a test of will rather than any democratic exercise it still matters that we look at the electoral considerations and perspectives. Even if diffidently.   Thus this general and as brief as possible unique electoral post about what are not necessarily the main races to watch but rather those that should confirm the trend as to the waning of chavismo. Outside, of course, the ever present crass electoral fraud.


The conditions

The municipal elections of December 8 have turned out to become a referendum on Maduro's tenure.  It should not have been like this of course, since we are supposed to vote for the guy that we think is better at fixing potholes and picking up the garbage. But in a country where a mass expects only goodies and another mass resent populism and the accompanying sectarianism you cannot expect anything else but plebiscitary polarization, the more so that the Maduro "election" of last April is now established as fraudulent by any impartial observer.

The electoral board has done its homework. The Maduro camp is amply favored, from gerrymandering of many a council district, to an absolute blind eye on power abuse, from using the resources of the state as if nothing to legally bar as many candidates as possible that could win a given district away from chavismo. In addition the flaws amply documented last April, from dead people voting to guarantees that the vote will be secret have been ignored. The CNE is more than ever the Ministry of Chavistas to be Reelected.

Yet we need to go and vote. Firstly, it is either voting or taking a gun and start a guerrilla warfare. Voting does not imply meek acceptance of adverse fraudulent results, but if you do not bother to vote you cannot complain afterwards. So we need to have the election stolen from us in order to be allowed to bitch about it. It may be unfair but this is the way things work in the real world.

Secondly the situation is not that desperate. After all, the more we vote, the more we set up systems to defend our vote, the more difficult it is for the regime to cheat. We need to force the regime to go to an outright open vote stealing to have international opinion become less complacent. Not that they will send Marines or Legionaires, but no democrat will want to be seen with a fraud. In case you have not noticed it, Maduro is only received by his pariah colleagues, real democrats limit as much as possible exposure to the post Chavez cancer.

What I am trying to say here is that the nature of the CNE fraud is to improve the chavismo numbers by somewhere close to 5%. That is, the day chavismo gets in real life less than 45% it will not be able to claim a majority and the CNE will have no option but to announce that the opposition has 50,1% or more. Which would mean that it got at least 55% . If the real numbers are never announced it will not matter, the psychological earthquake of a losing chavismo should be enough to speed up the collapse of the regime.

This is why the regime has gone on overdrive in recent weeks reaching for the organized looting and destruction of commerce in the country.  All polls pre-looting were implying that Maduro candidates were at least 10 points behind the opposition MUD, and sliding. Furthermore, contrary to Chavez good old days, Maduro does little, if any, direct candidate support: he is toxic.  If Maduro is 10 points behind it means that when cheating is factored in chavismo loses 52 to 48 in favor of the MUD.

I personally doubt that the latest antics of the regime are going to favor chavismo much. At best it will energize chavismo bases but I doubt it will be enough for Maduro to regain his "number" of April. In fact, if votes are reasonably counted, I am on record that chavismo will not reach 6.5 million votes, a net loss of 1 million at the very least since April, in elections that may have a surprisingly high turnout for local votes.

On the other hand the paradox maybe that the opposition vote will not only be re-energized, but as many store clerks are losing their jobs these coming weeks, the opposition may gain a not insignificant number of weak chavista votes directly!  I am willing to go on record that irregardless of the tally, the MUD will not get less than 400 K votes more than chavismo, cheating included. I can see easily chavismo getting no more than 6 million nationally and the MUD reaching the 6.5 million.  Note, I am not predicting anything yet, nor will I considering the extraordinary emotionalism of this vote and the plain intention of electoral fraud from the regime. I am just saying that this 6 to 6.5 result would seem "normal" for me under current conditions. With such a result we would all know that in fact the opposition has now 1 million votes more than chavismo and that this one can stay in office only through violent repression.

It is interesting to note that today November 23 series of street protests all across the country, more or less attended according to the locale (it was as the expected bust in San Felipe for example, but a big hit in Caracas), has been yet another opportunity for the regime to go a notch further in repression. First there has been a blackout on all TV networks in coverage of that protest and Capriles had to go to CNN tonight so at least somewhere we knew what was going on.  That was not all, the man in charge of organizing Capriles campaign travels across the country was arrested for a few hours by the state repressive security breaking into his home in the wee hours. Lopez was directly threatened with jail by Maduro. And other such incidents, including yet a new wave of mall "price police supervision" to try to lure shoppers to the mall instead of public protest. To no avail of course, but it betrays how far the regime will go by December 8.

The details

Considering the above it should be clear for the reader that monitoring individual races is as much wishful thinking than actual electoral science.  Thus in the table below I have only picked up a few races that should help the reader understand better the general political trend of the country in the last three years.  The table uses the rounded up vote numbers of chavismo and opposition in 2008, the last municipal vote, and April 2013. In pink chavista districts and in blue opposition ones. Note, sometimes the color does not match the numbers because I have added numbers when there was a division in 2008. For example in Cocorote the opposition wins by a thousand but loses the mayor anyway because it went divided. The "total" at the bottom include the votes listed minus those of Libertador included in the Caracas at large.  I have starred some districts which are "rural", for the sake of the discussion. I have calculated the percentile advantage for each election for chavismo which means that when the number is negative then the opposition leads. And to compare the two elections I calculated how that percentile moved in 4.5 years. Comments after the table.

MIRANDA CARACAS AND VARGAS

The Caracas Metro area has steadily been gained over by the opposition. Even in Vargas, the most pro Chavez area the opposition has progressed by 9.5%. If Libertador, downtown Caracas, is not a safe bet for the opposition (though its division seems to have been overcome) we should remember that in 2010 the opposition did win by a couple of thousands of votes.  Thus Ledezma seems almost a shoo in for reelection for Caracas at large, some polls already giving him a 10% advance on Ernesto Villegas, and advance that may also help in taking Libertador.

If all the stunts to recover Caracas at large seem to have failed for chavismo the real races are elsewhere, in Miranda where the opposition will prove its growth only if it confirms that it is now a majority in Los Teques and it it takes Guatire. Thus the measure of success for the MUD here is to gain at least 2 out of Libertador, Los Teques and Guatire. It can be done, even the three of them and a bonus district in the Valles del Tuy which would be a true humiliation for chavismo.

ARAGUA CARABOBO AND YARACUY

There the opposition situation is not as favorable. There is really no great candidate at the top of any ticket, the decline of Proyecto Venezuela is not yet compensated by other groups, and the regime has played particularly dirty this time around screwing the natural candidate for Maracay, Mardo, and about to screw the one for Valencia, Cocchiola.

In Yaracuy we pay the consequences of division in 2008 which cost us ALL districts and thus no bases to rebuild. In addition the current rather vicious governor has sponsored many development for low social income in San Felipe turning this most anti Chavez district of Yaracuy iredder, while the middle class developments went to Independencia and Cocorote making them bluer. Thus the metro area of San Felipe may go MUD while San Felipe would remain chavista.

For good measure I have added three small rural districts. Except for Urachiche where the opposition was really low, its growth is not that great though real. Bejuma always lost for divisions this time around should finally go opposition. Boraure which is in part a dormitory of San Felipe could benefit from the pauperization of San Felipe which lured away some of its settlers to go this time around MUD.

The measure of opposition success in these states is to gain the three metro districts of San Felipe and Valencia. If Valencia in spite of all of chavismo treacheries is still likely MUD, a loss in San Felipe would not be compensated by a victory in Bejuma and Boraure. And taking Maracay is of course the true measure of success in that area, as it would prove that the military in this army rich district is not a monolith behind Maduro...

LARA

Barquisimeto should go MUD and maybe even Carora, in addition to Palavecimo. With this three districts chavismo would suffer a major set back. But even if Carora does not fall, taking Barquisimeto, once the jewel in Chavez crown, is going to be major psychological blow for chavismo. Then again they have only themselves to blame for having put a lousy mayor, not allowing her to run again so that a military lout is the candidate this time. The opposition MUD candidate is Ramos, not a great one, but compared to the chavista ones, after the humiliations imposed by Chavez on governor Falcon and even Barquisimeto, chavismo should not be surprised if it loses Barquisimeto by as much as 20 points.

ZULIA

This is one painful and unaccountable governor loss last year since even cheating was not that easy there in a state where UNT supposedly has a strong electoral machinery.  Also the mayor of Maracaibo, nepotistically set in the wife of exiled ex governor Rosales, has not been that great.  Still, the MUD can redeem itself by retaining Maracaibo and adding its southern urban district of San Francisco. Gaining these two districts is crucial for the MUD to remain viable in Zulia, regardless of what happens elsewhere in the state. It is possible considering that chavismo has launched an annoying clown for Maracaibo and that Omar Prieto in San Francisco has been one of the worst thugs of chavismo in recent years and people my be getting tired of the character.

TACHIRA MERIDA AND TRUJILLO

The Andes state are in turmoil after voting for Capriles in 2012 and amazingly putting up chavista governors 2 months later... Well, not Trujillo which is one of the most chavista states today even though its main and lone city Valera may just go MUD this time around. It would be a major success.

Tachira which unaccountably went from the most anti Chavez state to elect "moderate" chavista Vielma Mora should redeem itself with a smashing MUD victory in San Cristobal its state capital.  Merida should also go MUD in its state capital and start undoing the damage of a series of unexplained lousy chavista governors by taking over the second urban district of El Vigia. Thus the measure of success in the Andes, more than how many districts the MUD gains, is to recover a solid vote plurality through Tachira and Merida and pick up Valera to dent Trujillo. Getting that is the best guarantee that the opposition has indeed a solid base for future challenges.

BARINAS PORTUGUESA AND GUARICO

The reader may have noted that I have not included Falcon and now I am skipping over Cojedes and Apure, but these three states do not weigh much today in the grand scheme of things.  In the Llanos, Chavez bastion, the only possibility is to gain Barinas, the capital of the homonym state. More than anything else, getting the state capital of the state who cursed us with baby Chavez, is the best way to demonstrate that chavismo is indeed in the defensive.

I have included for good measure Acarigua and San Juan de Los Morros just to show that if there is progress for the MUD it is rather glacial for the hot weather of this region. Besides Barinas, the lone possible gain is San Juan.

ANZOATEGUI SUCRE NUEVA ESPARTA AND MONAGAS

These states that came late into chavismo grasp have never been that solid for it, besides Sucre the poorer one and a natural candidate for co-dependency politics. Nueva Esparta was lost in December because Morel wanted to run for the nth time and not having been such a great governor, well, he got booted.  There the race to watch is Porlamar, the main district, which should go MUD but where chavismo has dispatched one of its few stars, at least compared to other lifeless polticos.  From my last visit I am still calling it a toss up.

Sucre I am afraid is not to be recovered this time around once the Voluntad Popular representative of Cumana was blackmailed rather too easily to join chavismo.  Getting Cumana is as much as we can hope for.  Carupano would be a feat for the annals.

Anzoategui is also a land of betrayal as the El Tigre Paraquiema family left chavismo and came back to it. In spite of that, or maybe becasue of that, Capriels did rather well last April.

And in Monagas which voted for Chavez even though he forced them to drink contaminated water we have no hope except for an upset in Maturin though its dependency on PDVSA does not make me very optimistic.  The measure of resistance there is to at least retain Porlamar, pick up either Barcelona or El Tigre. Success will exist only if we add either Cumana or Maturin while getting both El Tigre and Barcelona.

BOLIVAR

The election there is particularly interesting because in the latest December Governor election there seems to be very believable claims that the election was stolen. Since then social and political peace have never returned and the chavista military governor has been shown to be at the top of an impressive corruption pyramid. It is to be noted that Puerto Ordaz, the largest worker city in Venezuela went for Capriles if barely in April while the state capital Ciudad Bolivar has been steadily opposition in recent elections.  Nowhere but Puerto Ordaz could illustrate better the break between chavismo and workers as these one are getting tired of so much corruption and broken promises.  Gaining Puerto Ordaz, if opposition divisions are smoothed over, may be with Barquisimeto and Libertador the three biggest omens of chavismo debacle to come.

Concluding notes

The real meaning of December 8, if we make it there as it is clear that the regime is seeking some form of confrontation to postpone the vote or hide massive cheating is not in how many town halls the opposition wins or loses, but which ones and how many votes.

The number of votes because if the opposition manages more than 50% by the CNE it would mean clearly, at least to the military that are the true rulers of the country, that maybe 60% of the country has abandoned chavismo or at the very least Maduro. If Maduro does not get 50% cheating included his days are numbered as his own people will start actively to seek ways to get rid of him.

Of course we would not know for a while the exact voting tally since there are a few dissidents on either side and on election night what people will see are how many town-halls each side got.  From the rural districts, as this table hints at, there is not much to hope for: the acute dependency of these people on government grants ensure that no matter how much the opposition grows, a majority of these districts will remain chavista. Thus Maduro is almost 100% assured that on December 8 at midnight to be able to claim a victory by getting a "majority" of cities, the only thing he can use to try to gloss over an almost certain defeat on vote total.

This being said on December 9 around noon we will be able to measure the real strength of the opposition or weakness of Maduro. Since the objective of the opposition is to speed up the exit of Maduro, an objective which has sympathies inside chavismo, we need a score card along these lines.

Success: more votes than chavismo;  retain Maracaibo and Caracas at large; ensure San Cristobal and 90% of districts already held;  gain at least 4 out of Valencia, Maracay, Barcelona, Puerto Ordaz, Barquisimeto, Los Teques, Cumana, San Francisco; gain maybe a couple dozen of smaller ones so that at least we get one district in every state.

Triumph: at least 52% of the votes cast with chavismo pushed down to 46%; gain 6 of the list above; gain at least 3 of Valera, Barinas, Maturin, Carora, the 3 San Felipe metro together, Libertador, Guatire.

Maduro resigning conditions: a majority of districts regardless of their size as long as  Libertador is included.

Why this scorecards? For the stakes at play. But this is for another post.

Errores de la MUD: algunos se pueden corregir, otros no

Siempre trato de evitar escribir en español sobre política interna de la MUD. Solo lo hago en inglés, para la gente a quien le cuesta entender sus procesos bizantinos. El asunto es que en español no importa lo que escriba sobre tal o cual partido, siempre voy a ofender a alguien. No es objetivo de este blog apoyar o acusar a nadie en la MUD ya que estoy en perfecto conocimiento que la única arma que tenemos frente al totalitarismo cubano-chavista es la unidad. No a cualquier costo, pero unidad al fin y al cabo aunque nos deje de vez en cuando algo de amargura.  Pero ayer he visto dos fracasos gravísimos sobre las candidaturas a alcaldías que me obligan a escribir sobre el asunto.

Baruta

El alcalde saliente Gerardo Blyde perdió las primarias por un puñado de votos en febrero de 2012. Tal vez no haya sido el mejor de los alcaldes pero malo no ha sido. Es mas, aprecio en el virtudes como la discreción en cuanto a publicitar los logros de su gestión. Gigantografías de él no las vi, pero si de otros aspirantes a esa alcaldía. Pero el pueblo habló y aunque no me guste el resultado ganó el candidato de Primero Justicia, David Uzcátegui, hombre también de virtudes ciertas, pero con mas tiempo libre para hacer campaña que el alcalde que tenia que ocuparse también de la alcaldía. Note que yo no voto en Baruta sino en Yaracuy pero mis muy frecuentes extendidas estadías en ese municipio me me permiten escribir sobre el asunto. 

Pues bien, no tengo problema en que Uzcátegui sea el candidato: creo que el será, o debo escribir ahora, seria, un alcalde tan bueno como lo fue Blyde. Pero el deseo exacerbado de PJ de "recuperar" una alcaldía que ellos asumen les pertenece les han puesto a forzar la candidatura en las primarias de Uzcategui a pesar del interdicto del cual lo amenazan desde la contraloría y el TSJ. Los va y vienes que vimos en estos últimos dos años hubiesen debido obligar a mas prudencia tanto a PJ como a la Mesa de la Unidad. Pero no, PJ puso la torta y ayer Uzcátegui a pocos días de la elección, cuando ya no se puede cambiar el diseño de la boleta fue inhabilitado y no podrá ser candidato.

La estrategia del chavismo no es conquistar con trampa a Baruta, eso es imposible por mas Winstones que le tiren al municipio. La estrategia es fomentar la abstención de los electores de PJ en Baruta para que Ernesto Villegas la tenga mas fácil en la gran Caracas.  Yo creo que no va a resultar el truquito, la gente de Baruta es mucho menos pendeja que los electores del PSUV.......  Pero no podemos negar que el empecinamiento de PJ nos ha hecho perder tiempo y recursos.  Por lo menos, ante la hora tan menguada que vivimos, la MUD ya hoy pidió a Blyde ser el sustituto de Uzacategui y parece que este va a ser su jefe de campaña. En pocos días nos habremos olvidado del asunto y Winston, y también esperamos Ernesto, recibirán la bofetada política que se merecen por ser grandísimos sinvergüenzas.

Valencia

Desafortunadamente el entuerto de Valencia no se podrá arreglar tan fácil como el de Baruta y lo que era una alcaldía segura esta hoy en gran riesgo de quedarse en manos del chavismo corrupto que la manejo estos últimos 5 años.  Allí tenemos otra vez la prueba de que la MUD no hizo bien su trabajo al seleccionar candidatos y ponerles condiciones. Como fue el caso de Mardo, aunque este lo hizo peor, el señor Cocchiola quiere ser a juro alcalde de Valencia (y quien sabe que mas mas tarde) y por lo tanto consideró su presencia en la Asamblea Nacional desde 2010 como un tramite.

Seguramente es respetable la ambición política de Cocchiola y de Mardo y de otros, pero esa debería de someterse a las urgencias de una país. No estamos en una democracia normal donde ambiciones internas no amenazan el bien colectivo. Hacer política en Venezuela es hoy en día un riesgo personal ademas del riesgo colectivo.

Por eso no entiendo que carajo fue a hacer Cocchiola a EE.UU justo cuando se iniciaba la campaña oficial para la alcaldía a la cual el aspira.  ¡Ni siquiera era el primer nieto que le iba a nacer!  Ahora todos piensan que se fugó, que se cagó porque tiene miedo que lo pongan preso por los precios de IMECA, etc.  ¿Y acaso no disfruta de su inmunidad parlamentaria por mas usurero que haya sido en IMECA (cosa que dudo mucho, sea dicho, ya que es muy respetable como hombre de negocios)? Y peor ¿un detalle familiar es mas importante para el que todo el pueblo de Valencia? Si se le hubiese muerto o enfermado de gravedad alguien uno podría entender que se tome un par de días para arreglar el asunto, pero cuando uno aspira a una alcaldía tan importante como es la de Valencia, la vida privada tiene que ser de suma discreción. Si el señor Cocchiola no entiende esto entonces todos tenemos derecho de preocuparnos por su idoneidad por el cargo de alcalde. 

Lo que este señor ha hecho este fin de semana es un error político garrafal que el chavismo supo aprovecharse muy bien.  Esperemos que logre regresar pronto y asumir su barranco porque si no lo hace entonces Valencia está casi perdida ya que va a ser muy difícil hacer un cambio en condiciones favorables como el que se hace en Baruta hoy. Pero pase lo que pase, estoy dispuesto a apostar que esa aventura de Cocchiola con el nieto le va a costar por lo menos un concejal, si es que gana la alcaldía. Por lo menos tenemos la suerte que el candidato para Valencia del PSUV es Miguel Flores, una joyita del entrono corrupto de Ameliach. Después del desastre de Parra le va a ser muy difícil llevarse a Valencia por delante. A menos que Cocchiola siga ayudándolo.

En fin, me disculpo por estas quejas, pero a veces me exaspera ver que en las pocas condiciones favorables que tenemos, logramos meter la pata.  La MUD tiene que tener mejor seguimiento y consejería para sus candidatos....... Y los agalludos calmarse un poco porque por mas agalludos que sean, por mas alcaldías que logren quitarle al régimen, poco harán mientras la cuerda de forajidos con Maduro de parapeto siga en Miraflores. Aclaren sus prioridades, por favor.

Not so random thoughts on Electrodomesticonacht

UPDATED
At 24 hours from the start of the festivities, we can put together a few thoughts.

It does not matter who the looted store owner were

El Nacional economy journalist Blanca Vera Azaf is strikingly wrong when she so lightly points out in a string of tweets that the

Unos boliburgueses enchufados tenían negocito con altos funcionarios del gobierno que les vendían electrodomésticos importados (1)
— Blanca Vera Azaf (@bevavera) November 10, 2013

The psychological damage is there to stay, be it a store owner chavista or not. I can vouch myself from by errands yesterday that escualido store owners in Las Americas mall knew that Daka was regime associated which did not stop them from being outraged. Even a woman working at a small cart stand selling waffles was near hysterical at what she considered a plain robbery.  This was an attack to private property and people who work truly for a living understood that perfectly.

See, shop owners know that whether you inherit, create or steal the money to open your shop, it takes hard work to keep it afloat. Maybe the owners of Daka were from middle eastern origin, maybe they got started with sweet exchange deals with the regime, but their stores were well kept, they had supplies, they created jobs, etc....  Shop owners of Venezuela understand at gut level that the way to punish the owners of Daka is not by stealing their goods, but by sending tax auditors and levy the necessary fines and taxes.  Besides, the price argument is not a good one: nobody forces you to buy in a store. It is up to the customer to do the leg work and compare stores and prices. Only particularly dumb chavistas can content themselves with one product, one quality, one store, one price.

Blanca Vera Azaf should know better than stress such distinctions which play straight into the hands of the regime......

The bolibourgeois (and Cabello) are on the defensive

But since the stores most hit at first were the bolibourgeois ones (the less linked ones were hit yesterday late, as an afterthought of the regime it seems) we must also accept that a large part of the play was done by one chavista sector hitting on another one.  What is remarkable in the strategy chosen is that it has NOTHING to do with socialism but all with mafia wars.  Had the seizure been "socialist" we would have seen an expropriation, a militarization from the start, etc...  more legalism in short, more "el pueblo" organization. What we saw was a crass destruction of the economic might of one group that displeased the other with a whole bunch of opportunists picking the remains.

Maduro and whomever pushed him (Giordani) are true ignorant

We can argue that ignoring the consequences of yesterday may be willful (I want to end capitalism) or the product of ignorance (but I only wanted to punish the bad guys). What we cannot argue is that there will be huge negative consequences that apparently they cannot see, and even less understand if they could see.

When Maduro announces that it wants the Internet providers of Venezuela to censor pages that publish the black market rate of the US dollar we can only be astounded at the stupidity of the man. In no particular order:
- Maduro ignores how Internet works, that all eventually gets to be known sooner or later, even inside China.
- Maduro thinks that the "overpricing" of Daka et al., is due at the owners being directly influenced by reading such pages.  The same idiotic argument that pushes some people to want to censor comics because it induces kids to commit crimes.
- Maduro and Giordani truly think that they are doing great and that if the currency has gone from 1 to 0,01 in 15 years it is not because of their lousy policies but because they have been sabotaged all along. Never does it cross their minds that if it were so easy to sabotage an economy Al Qaeda would have bankrupted the USA long ago.
- Maduro and Giordani apparently do not know that all regimes that pretended to control all NEVER could avoid the existence of some form of black market, not even the efficient Germans in occupied Europe during WW2.

What matters the most in Venezuela is the economy

Yesterday Daka seizure covered more expectations than the regime could hope for. The timing of the measure which certainly had a relation with covering electoral bad numbers, Capriles received by the Pope and the march convoked by the opposition yesterday has blown in their face. Indeed, all other news were shut up, EVEN that a Miss Venezuela did get yet another International beauty pageant. Everybody from tweeter to store owners in Las Americas talked about the looting and only the expected chavistas tried to put a good spin on it. I am willing to go on record that overall the result is bad for the regime, that it will not gain them much votes if any, because people that loot probably cannot be bothered to vote to begin with and know very well that whether Maduro remains in office or Capriles wins, they are more likely to preserve their loot under Capriles than a Maduro than cannot control the terrible crime wave that could tomorrow steal their loot. As for "el pueblo" what it really wants to know is whether there is somewhere milk to loot.

Added tonight

The electoral campaign numbers are bad

What Maduro et al. tried this week end is a clear reflection of their polling numbers.  Barely a month before an election that you claim you will win you do not need to pull such a stunt (and only one of the many stunts pulled such as declaring December 8 the day of Chavez remembrance).  Such a reckless call to "clean up the shelves" by Maduro only proves that he is indeed afraid of losing the majority vote IN SPITE of all the electoral cheating coming our way.  Which can only mean one thing: in chavista polls the opposition must be leading by more than 5% which is in my past estimation what the electoral cheating bonus is worth.

From my political contacts this week, and I did not visit them for poll numbers as I know how fickle and imprecise these are this time around, the Metro Caracas numbers look very good, even in the Libertador district, the jewel in the crown for chavismo that even a divided opposition may take, if barely.  But I was told of some surprising numbers in the hinterlands that may confirm that next December 9 a large majority of the Venezuelan population will be ruled by opposition mayors. Chavismo can still take comfort that the way districts are organized in the country they are still significantly ahead in the total number of mayors but these ones will have a novelty: the overwhelming majority in the local councils they enjoyed before will not exist anymore.  In short chavismo is going to lose its main patronage tool after the central administration, a large majority of town-halls.  In fact, a solid showing in those councils could make it very difficult to activate the plan B, to develop "comunas" to weaken mayors elected for the opposition.

The worse may actually come to pass for chavismo: the local elections may turn out to be a plebiscite on Maduro and this creep is helping them to become so!  He may regret Daka in a few weeks.

Even the campaign finances are bad

Another thing that we can get confirmation of with the Daka looting is that the regime does not have the means to buy votes the way it used to do under Chavez. Usually at month of any election under chavismo the regime had already occupied all the main public locations to plaster its propaganda. This time around they are rather late when they should have been earlier than usual.  Also the ubiquitous "fairs" where chavismo will distribute goods are much rarer and, I was told, less provided than in the past.  That Maduro decided to loot Daka for electoral purpose can only mean that indeed, they do not have all the money they would love to have.

Voluntad Popular is ready for the major poltical leagues

Today's press conference at Voluntad Popular

Long time readers of the blog remember that I have been following the growth of Voluntad Popular, Leopoldo Lopez vehicle, since almost its birth. I covered the official launch in Valencia, very soon 4 years ago.  Since then we have kept in touch and monitored its progress. I am happy to report today that Voluntad Popular has graduated to the major league.  Disclaimer: even though I have voted for them or supported their formula I would never be an unconditional for them or anyone else (I did vote Machado for the 2012 primaries even though Lopez rallied Capriles).

These past 4 years I have written about their growth, their initiatives, at least when these could be of interest for people living overseas such as the Venezuelans trying to vote in embassies and the help VP tried to bring them. Never mind writing often on the epic battle of Lopez against the regime attempt to block his political career, a battle he won in international courts even though the regime keeps playing a deaf ear to its international obligations. Then again, when has fascism paid heed to legality?

The true trilogy of evil: empty
wallets (slang), high crime and
scarcity of all, including toilet paper

I have thus being privileged to be a regular guest at VP, be it when Lopez launched his candidacy, or a few days after he gave up his ambition to favor the one of Capriles in 2012, already itching for the good fight against Chavez electoral machinery. A few months ago I was invited to tour their new headquarters, a flat on Centro Plaza, a good deal in a rather derelict building but aren't they all in Caracas these days..... I returned this week to make the promised report, coincidentally with the reply of Lopez to the fascist regime attack against him and Capriles with Machado. The true "triology of evil" that Maduro pretends to believe us these guys incarnate is in fact the trilogy of poverty, crime and scarcity. With the poster just produced today on the left for show.

The headquarters of Voluntad Popular are bristling with activity, full of energy. And not only because in one month we have elections, I already had that impression a few months ago when they had just moved in and there were half of the folks I saw today.

What welcomes you when waiting for your host to fetch you is an exhibition hall. A long hallway that can also be used for other purposes is decorated this month with a selection of political cartoons from Zapata, Rayma and Edo. It is called "La Ventana", the window, as a place where prosecuted folks are welcome to expose, and other to come and look over and see what the regime would like to disappear.

Defending freedom of expression.

This is, in short, the tone of the visit: the rather young and dynamic team working for Voluntad Popular leaves no stone unturned, from mere electoral activities to more intellectual pursuits, even if in a hurry. But we are a country in a hurry, in a hurry to leave behind chavismo, so I can relate. Contemplation must be brief and purposeful.

The call center

There are rooms for everything, and all full of busy people. Below I will spare you the numerous meeting rooms and just show you where the action takes place (by the way, all rooms sparsely crowded with items, we sense that they want to have as little as possible on their desks least some repressive raid were to happen: whatever the Nazional Guard seizes, personal or not, is rarely returned even if you are 100% innocent).

Media Watch

Let's start with the call center, the key to any serious political organization.  There are about five rows as the one in the picture above. I did talk briefly with one of the guys in charge and they are happy with their work, having created in a few month a structure that allows them to avoid the use of expensive pollsters, at least on simple issues. I will not give you details since it is after all their weaponry, but I can tell you that their own "polling" matches rather well the few polls found on newspapers.  Of course, almost no one looked more than 30 years old.  In fact, I felt like an old troll in many rooms.....

VP's hope

Next is the room monitoring the media. Today since all media TV is either silenced or controlled by the government 5 TV sets are more than enough, and two were off....  There is way more work going on the computers where web pages, twitter and newspapers are closely monitored.

The electoral campaign is monitored from several rooms.  In the one below there are young designers trying to come up with all the necessary material.

Campaign creation room

In another there is support to the candidates with the chart pinning the picture of each candidate running for town hall. Limited means make them run more "traditional" material visual aids. There are about 40 running and they are optimistic about getting a significant representation. What is noteworthy here is to observe that on the map there are everywhere. True, maybe Zulia, Falcon and Bolivar are still rather empty, but everywhere else VP is running a guy, sometimes in big tickets like San Cristobal or Maturin. At any rate, in barely 4 years, VP has cultivated a growing nationwide presence, something that cannot be said for, say, UNT, and with caveats for PJ.

Last but not least, Voluntad Popular is finishing up its program and political concepts. The Orange book will be published soon and I saw the provisional cover.  Well, they are still working on the set up but the good thing is that after months and years of discussion across the country with the many grassroots groups they are finally getting there. It is not useless to remind folks that VP was the first political party since 1998 to hold an internal primary. Chavismo had some but they forgot about the whole thing as soon as they observed that some dared criticize Chavez proposals.  And the others are content in their pyramidal set up, if there is indeed a pyramid to be found for them.

Simonovis remembered

Details are not forgotten. In an office I did find out that political prisoners are not forgotten and several cartoons asking for the freedom of Simonovis were on the wall.

To finish this post, let's talk about the press conference system of VP.  I receive on my mail regularly, at least once a week, a press communique of the weekly agenda. It is about the response of VP to a particular situation. It may be held in the press room of the headquarters or somewhere else, in particular if it is locally related to a given campaign. But the most salient feature if you ask me is that the official position of VP is not always announced by Leopoldo Lopez. In fact, there is great care taken to promote as many voices from VP as possible and many spokespeople are formed by giving these press conferences and holding the questions.  VP may be the creation of Leopoldo Lopez when he left his original associates but he has had the wisdom to make the party a real political group, a confluence of ideas and interests.

Presenting the poster.

Today it was Lopez in charge of the conference.  Normal, he had been attacked vilely last week and there was a need to a direct reply.  I am not going to go into the details of that short and to the point briefing, which is by the way, always the case, short and to the point, whomever is in charge of directing the event at VP.  I did do a live tweet that you can check here if you wish. But live tweet is not the way to cover the energy of Lopez. And I must say, a certain anger I sensed by being branded a fascist when he has been repeatedly the victim of a regime that does not bother much anymore in democratic pretense.

The highlight of the presentation I would say was to once again ridicule Maduro. For him being so worried about Twitter removing 6000 fake accounts out of his 1 million plus followers is equivalent to a teenage girl tantrum, according to Lopez. Again, more evidence that Maduro is located between pusillanimous and ridiculous. The ever repeated leitmotiv that no matter what corruption is denounced, there is NEVER a big fish toppled by it was not forgotten.

The communication machinery, a concern from the very start by Lopez and Voluntad Popular, is smooth and quick to respond. When I was starting to put together this post I received already the summary of Lopez intervention and this video which is quite chilling if you understand Spanish. There is a clear expose of what is the real "evil trilogy" of Venezuela, shortages, corruption, violence, etc...



The web site of Voluntad Popular, a work always in progress in real web sites, is full of news, videos and how to join it. But you can also follow or visit  @VoluntadPopular to see pictures of all the constant activities of the group across Venezuela, some impressive considering the small locales they visit. They also report with pictures on the nasty stuff they find around. You can also follow @leopoldolopez who happens to have 100,000 more followers than @nicolasmaduro, interestingly. Real followers I would bet as Twitter does not seem in the need to clean up fake accounts with Lopez as it did with Maduro....

I am no political expert to judge how successful Voluntad Popular is, we will need to see if they get at least 15-20 town-halls next December. However after this visit I have a sense that whatever it is that VP is doing, it seems to be doing it right. And certainly the constant harassment the regime has against VP is proof that these young activists are having an effect.

Lopez has read VN&V

To conclude, a picture I took during a short meeting I had with Lopez's team at the end of the visit, where he posed along the VN&V web page screen to greet readers of this blog.

How to hold an electoral campaign under Venezuela neo-fascism?

For long time readers of this blog the title should not come as a surprise. It has been long that I have rejected the democratic pretense of the regime as well as the one coming from those that still pretend to comment "objectively" on Venezuela. That is those who try to find a fig leaf of democracy, be they foreign journalists, bloggers or actual Venezuelan journos. As far as I am concerned we are in a military regime since at least late 2010, a regime which is turning openly fascist since late 2012.  If you do not agree at least in part with me, then you have been wasting your time reading this blog.

On the fig leaf front there is an incipient electoral campaign for local elections this December. Indeed, there will be massive abuse and cheating from the regime. And yet there is little else we can do than go and vote, unless you are willing to wield your guns against the gang of thugs that hold Miraflores Palace hostage. The resolution will come only when chavismo will break up, violently, and self destruct. Perhaps sooner than later, but whatever the time frame is our participation in the election can only speed up the process.

This being said, let's look at the campaign which yesterday has taken a clearly fascist turn.  I am not using the word communist, note, because the inspiration is from Cuba and Cuba is now under an aging fascist system. True communism would have never tolerated stuff like the general prostitution of jineteras at the fake luxury sea front of Varadero. By writing this I do not intend to state that one system is better than the other, merely that their vices are not the same in their quest for totalitarian control and equal meting out of misery.

To help you understand let's start with one of the three things that happened yesterday, the minor one if you will, but one that will help you understand better what happened in Caracas.  The billboard above has showed up first yesterday in San Felipe, in at least three locations that I have noticed. It is Chavez heirs electoral strategy: Chavez. That is right, in the last 10 months Chavez heirs have NOTHING to show for their tenure so once again they resort to the only thing that has worked in the past, the image of Chavez.

The billboard deserves a speedy semantical analysis.

First, they use the "martyrdom" picture of Chavez, in his last 2012 campaign appearance, when he stood under the rain to inspire pity and maximize his appeal. His Che moment of sorts though it probably cost him a few days of life which I am sure he did not mind paying in his narcissistic egotism.

Second, it is addressed to ¡CHAVISTAS! Not you or me. They are not trying to get new votes due to their track record. They know better: they need to motivate the chavista lumpen that has been battered by inflation, scarcity, crime, lack of jobs, etc... to go and vote for them yet one more time.  And thus the second line: to honor Chavez memory. Period. No other argument.

Third, since there is nothing positive to run on, there is the need to make a crass appeal to war, battles, heroism and what not, Chavez style again. And thus the slogan, "Unity, fighting, battles and victory!" empty, devoid of any single new idea. Very fascist if you ask me, where what passes as ideas are artificial constructs designed to polarize society in order not to discuss what could be the true solutions to our real problems.  Or rather, since this is Venezuela, a banal but vicious thugocracy that uses selected simple minded fascisto/communist methods to hold to power so as to avoid the jail they deserve.

The bottom is the Warholian take on Chavez eyes and the party colors to suggest mass and unity (GPP, Great Patriotic Pole). Fluff!

When a "poltical" group has reached such depth of intellectual emptiness you cannot be surprised by the visceral moves they took yesterday.

The first one was a very clumsy attempt by foreign minister Jaua who pretends to be the true governor of Miranda. For memory, defeated by Capriles last December in spite of all the electoral abuse and blackmail and cheating, the regime named him special agent for the Tuy valley of Miranda which meant that he became an appointed parallel governor, probably with more money than Capriles to rule effectively the state that duly voted for him. Again, a neo-totalitarian contempt for democracy.

Sure enough siphoning money from one side to buy votes on the other created financial havoc and the Miranda workers decided to march in protest to force the central government to give Miranda its full share of the budget. Everybody knows of course that the regime will pinch every single penny it can against Capriles even if hardship for innocent follows. When you play dirty it helps not to have a bit of scruples.  So Jaua started an infantile blockade of Caracas access through a pretend pro chavista protest against the "fascist" "coup mongering" march of Capriles.  It was so clumsy that within a couple of hours it seems that Jaua was brought back to heel and the marchers could go present their demands.

That chavista fiasco was accompanied by yet a new scale up of the rhetoric. While Caracas was blockaded for a few hours somebody started placarding the posters below.

Memorize their faces
The trilogy of evil
They take away your light
They take away your food
They take away your peace
Enough violence

Now, this is extremely grave because it calls for the public lynching of the three top opposition politicians today: Capriles, Lopez and Machado.  Any crazed chavista can feel that if he were to kill, or at least hurt one of them, he would not be punished.  And even if we assume that a lose canon took such an mistaken initiative with these posters of hate, there is a video that clearly shows that Maduro is responsible, the inspiration (at the end of this post).

What these posters do, besides trying to imitate horror show aesthetic with the faces of the three, in particular the one of Capriles, is to place the blame for the current economic crisis on them.  That is, a regime that controls everything, from the armed forces to any office regulating production claims that the three guys are able on their own to turn off the power grids of Venezuela, disrupt the general food distribution system, create the high criminal insecurity.

That is exactly what the Nazis did against the Jews after 1933.





Maduro encouraging public violence against opposition leadership. He uses the words "pueblo reconocelos" (9 sec) "trilogia del mal" (4 sec) "enemigos de la patria" (6 sec)

A month and a half to play it out in Venezuela

For some, the local elections of December 8 are the last horizon. Crossing it successfully will mean the end of chavismo, at least as we have known it. For others all will be played as soon as the Enabling Law is published. Some think that a popular uprising is around the corner. Some think that it is all over. All are wrong, on these and other suppositions. That does not make me right because, well, I actually have no position. So, instead of trying to figure out a way out of this mess I should limit myself to try to evaluate the current situation. May the reader think whatever s/he pleases.

The almost daily morning line at Makro San Felipe. It is under the sun, people now carry umbrellas rain or shine.
This a short one. Sometimes it is 4X longer, reaching the main avenue downhill.
It is not the only line in San Felipe, but it is probably the most recurrent because Makro always get some item.

Whatever one thinks, one thing is certain, the next couple of months are decisive. Even if you think all has been played out, the coming weeks will decide the extent of the economic crisis and the extent of the repression we must suffer through 2014.


The general context is not too complicated, once you think about it. Chavismo is trying to resolve its internal wars and as such can only agree on the need to silence the opposition. The economic crisis deepens and the regime is unable to come to grips with it, and even less to find a faint solution. It seems that in spite of all of its efforts it cannot replicate previous election miracles of keeping the shelves full for at least the two months before the election so that people forget previous food shortages. But even if the regime were able to put food back on the shelves, the annual inflation for food items alone is around 70% so people will be displeased anyway.  Basically all economic indicators are going red. I am at ground zero and I can assure you that every day it gets more and more difficult to produce anything, ship it, cash it, replenish stocks, meet payroll. I have had to resort to barter with my competition for raw material so we both do not go under.....

In this context chavismo has decided that the December vote is lost and that their hope is the Enabling Law. Through it, it will be able to produce yet more controls certain to fail, settle issues within chavismo that cannot be settled, make a mockery of the December electoral result though new measures to promote "comunas" that will destroy the influence of mayors and local councils soon to reach the opposition hands; and for good measure start jailing a few opposition leaders. Maduro has already singled out Capriles and Lopez, has accused Machado to be the chosen head of an interim regime, which guarantees that she will be cell mate of the first two. And we cannot discard that some last minute commotion will be generated so that elections are "postponed". Already the lengthy list of missed deadlines by electoral authorities, CNE, seem to indicate that they know this will be the case.

The regime is so decided to pass the Enabling Law that it has already started illegal repressive measures against two opposition representatives to remove them from the Assembly and secure a 99 votes vote. Be it in Spain or in Argentina, nobody is fooled: the high court, TSJ, is clearing the way for the regime to approve an unconstitutional law. And yet it may not be enough. The nervousness of Maduro is palpable. He has stopped travelling outside the country, missing the IberoAmerican summit in Panama which would have been crucial to reinforce his international legitimacy. He spends an inordinate amount of time in military barracks, convincing the army of his authority. Not that there is a coup in the making, the military is too fat and too corrupt. What the military wants is a regime able to solve pressing problems, that can avoid a social crisis because the Venezuelan army is no mood to stain its hand in blood for the sake of Maduro and his Cuban masters. Times have changed and they want to be able to travel freely to enjoy their riches acquired through Chavez buy out of the nation's integrity. It is not far-fetched to think that the army wants to retain the power that it enjoys today but through a more capable president than Maduro, a better covering fig leaf for our lack of democracy.

The opposition seems hypnotized by the prospect of the Enabling Law. Some like Maria Corina Machado want an all out defense, at all cost. Some like Capriles and the MUD do not seem to be overly concerned, so certain they are their strategy of winning on December 8. An OpEd person was right in pointing out that when Capriles says he would not recognize a law voted by less 99 he implicitly admitted that as long as the 99 magical number of Assembly votes is reached, even through coaxing and blackmail, he would accept it. His response should have been sterner and once again Capriles projects a wishy washy image that diminish his leadership in a time when clear answers and positions are required.

All in all the opposition seems to have been on the wait since last April. The decline of the country is a given and indeed in a sense it makes sense to wait for Gotterdamerung. But it should also be clear that the regime will not fall on its own, and certainly cannot be left alone to the military and the narco-generals to decide what to do with it. The opposition has a real risk to be irrelevant in the transition for its apparent lack of ideas and distaste for real confrontation.

It is not a matter of communication, of having lost the last critical TV network available, Globovision. The reality of inflation and food shortages is an ever present element of our lives, reminding people that this is not normal and that before Chavez we never had such an episode of recurring shortages. Also, that the opposition is silenced has the unwanted paradox that even the average chavista turns off official news: once the excitement of the insulting match is limited to one side, why bother? The problem of the opposition is that one starts to wonder whether it wants to reach high office, truly.

The lack of airwaves media has had a positive effect on the opposition. Coupled to local elections which take cohorts of candidates stomping the voting grounds, they are making much better and direct the contact with the crowds at a time where the chavista paid electoral help have no explications for the shortages except the ritual ones that have ceased to convince.  When you stand for hours at the Makro of San Felipe, for hours, for at most 4 kilos of corn flour, and repeat next week, you may actually start wanting to see those dangerous marines to come. It cannot be worse than that these never ending lines..... And they will have dollars in their pockets, you know!

Whether we go to vote on December 8, whether we actually win, we may see this December as the final generational shift we have been waiting. Inside chavismo the "revolutionary" oldies will be confronted with the new base that was shunted in the candidate nomination process and that may be the single most important element in the electoral loss of chavismo in December. The silenced rank and filed chavista may actually be more democrat than the ones at the reins today, and as upset by the airwaves censorship as the opposition folks. Let's not forget that the official message does not reach much the hoi polloi since it is concerned more in glorifying Maduro than announcing real improvements in el pueblo situation. Constant propaganda has its limits.

For the opposition the generational shift is coming, even more if we have elections. There should be at least 50 new mayors and scores of new municipal council folks that have never held and elected office. It is quite possible that when the tallies are in at least half of the opposition new officials will be newbies, that developed their career skills under chavismo, that have just won their very first public office. And even many of those in charge today were unknowns in 1998. After December 8 the leadership of Capriles and the MUD will face a fresh new challenge just when it may have to get ready to assist the end of Maduro......

That is why I do not know what is going to happen exactly but why I truly think that the next two months are really going to be the real hinge between the Chavez era and whatever comes next. 2013 will have thus been the mere set up for the times to come, the necessary time to start forgetting the reality of Chavez, to learn for both sides that it is time to take back in our hands our destiny, or give up on it, as the case may be. 2013 was not a transition, it was an end. Transition is only starting, finally.

Keller polls on Maduro's illegitimacy

There are many ways to conduct an electoral poll. In general you ask folks for whom they plan to vote and apply the acknowledged corrections to predict who is going to win. This works more or less but it tends to at least predict the winner, the margins of victory being the major problem. Or you can ask voters who did they vote for. After the fact and totally useless for us, but good for a pollsters as a way to control their polling methods when the vote is still fresh in mind.

This is what Keller did, who used to be my favorite pollster before I decided to send all of the them to the dumpsters. At least Keller still has the saving grace that on long term trends he is one of the best, only lacking when he wants to apply them to tomorrow's result. But that is another story.


What Keller did was to ask who they voted for after last April when results allegedly were 51% Maduro 49% Capriles and which Capriles does not recognize. In May folks answered 40% Maduro and 45% Capriles. Keller folks, surprised, thought they made a mistake in the methodology for that question and asked again in August. They got 40% Maduro for 46% for Capriles..... I suppose that in the post April confusion they added "who do you think won?" getting 45% Maduro and 48% Capriles. And further more 54% think there was electoral fraud somewhere.

I truly do not know what we should really do with this, since it was from a Keller interview I read and I do not know the methods used, nor what were his results, say, in post October 2012 or post December 2007. I do not think really that within a month people got fed up enough with Maduro that they already refused to accept their part in voting him in. This is proven by the almost exact same result of August, 3 months later. Let's just say for the time being that it is one more evidence as to Maduro having stolen the election.

The real mystery here is how come the opposition does not make good use of such results which probably do not come only from Keller.

The louder the Maduro's regime shouts, the weaker it reveals itself

The offensive these past few days by Maduro is a sight to behold.  He is all out to destroy the opposition, either through his own threats or other means announced by his associates. But all of this ruckus cannot hide the crude reality: the legitimacy of the regime is falling, fast.

Opinion polls are down for chavismo. All coincide in saying that the popular vote  in December mayoral election will go to the advantage of the opposition. The margin is not set yet, as it depends on the campaign, what happens next couple of months and the participation on election day. But all indicates that if the regime still should hold a majority of the town-halls it will lose in the largest districts and a majority of Venezuelan population will be under opposition Mayor rule.

Unfortunately for the regime there are no prospects for a quick reversal of fortunes. Even if oil were to reach suddenly astronomical values, short of paying directly in dollars the population the effect of the boom could only be felt after the vote.  Losing the popular vote in local elections for a democracy is not a life threatening matters. There are presidents and prime ministers that dropped 10, 20%, that reached the 30% in polls only to be reelected anyway a year or two later. But in an authoritarian regime based on the crassest populism, a regime that holds all the media, that holds the judiciary system, where the opposition is neutered, where electoral fraud is the norm, "losing an election by a mere 5%" could be lethal. The more so that by refusing to even pretend to examine the justified fraud claims of April 2013 you implicitly admitted that these claims were not baseless and that the narrow result could go the other ways if votes were actually counted.

The regime has thus no other options but to tighten the screw, to diminish the opposition, to prepare electoral fraud and even to prepare the practical annulment of the coming unfavorable results that no amount of electoral fraud can hide in full. The flurry of the last days speaks for itself.

There is a concerned attack by the regime to silence the National Assembly. I am not talking here of the beatings that already took place and such assorted actions, I am talking here of the outright removal of a dozen opposition representatives that are going to be "investigated" and for which their legal immunity will be lifted, the one for free speech of a national representative, the cornerstone of representative democracy. The objective here is not only to turn the assembly into a rubber stamp, but to stop any discussion, even outside of the assembly quarters.

Opposition leaders not in the National Assembly must be silenced too. It can be done individually by accusing Capriles of coupmongering when he goes to Miami to conspire when in fact he went there to make it clear that a coup is not an option for Venezuela. Or you can demand a hitlerian enabling law to prosecute corruption cases which is a blunt way to jail any opposition leader that took by mistake a paper clip at the office.

Even the latest Syrian outburst of Maduro, when he went all out to defended Assad and accused Ban Ki-Moon of being an agent of the US at the UN has a purpose. Venezuela officially left the Inter American Court for Human Rights last week and already people are saying that we need to get used to present our human rights violations in other venues like the UN. What Maduro is doing is preparing the world to the notion that Venezuela is a rogue state, that his regime will not abide by any human right tribunal anywhere. Just like Cuba does.

Small details are not forgotten. For example there is now a mandatory broadcast on ALL TV, and ALL radio stations, simultaneously, of a "noticiero de la verdad", or if you prefer an Orwellian truth speak news broadcast of what is according to Maduro the truth of what is going on in Venezuela and the world. No right to reply will be offered, of course. Not that it matters because for all practical purposes there is very little and very tame criticism to the regime on the air waves now. And dwindling at that.

Finally, preparations are diligently done to make sure that the electoral results of next December do not matter. The law for communes is reinforced. Application of that law means that neighborhoods are organized in political units which in turn are federated in larger communes. Thus the government will provide DIRECTLY to these communes projects, as approved by "el pueblo". On paper it sounds good and democratic.  Except that there are two flaws in the system. The basic communes decision making is an open vote, thus subject DIRECTLY to political scrutiny from political chavista commissars. And if that were not enough, communes formed in opposition districts simply are not legalized by the government, only communes that are approved by the PSUV are registered. Apartheid. Thus if a city if won by the opposition next December, the chavista voting parts will be taken out of the jurisdiction by the regime through a "communal" manipulation, while retaining the forced municipal funds. Soon democratically elected opposition districts will simply be left without resources.

We are already under a dictatorship. But there is very, very thin red line to cross to make this one a repressive and even bloody one. By threatening to cross that line Maduro is only demonstrating that he lost the legitimacy battle and that violent repression is his last resource to remain in office.

Can Maduro last long?

For the last few days I was mulling a post on how long the chavista regime could survive. (Note: that it survives a week or ten years is not the real point, what we are discussing here are the means it uses for its survival).  But Miguel sort of hopped ahead even though his post is lacking addressing the motivation of these people "[they have] no scruples". Really.....  Still, Miguel covers quite well how the regime can muddle his way through financially for quite a few more months or years, and thus there is really nothing I can add on this respect. However, on other aspects there is a whole lot more that can be added as to reasons why the regime may survive longer than logic would dictate.



To understand what comes next it is good to remind that the regime is a thug-ocracy, that those in charge are a whole bunch of people that have stolen so much that they know perfectly well that if the country ever gets back to normal they will go to jail. In other words, the people in charge cannot conceive any scenario in which a peaceful transition will come and they will be allowed to go unscathed. As such they are ready to do whatever it takes to stay in office. Murder not being an exception since the already existing high crime rate would allow for an "oops! Capriles was unfortunately shot dead when someone tried to steal his blackberry" (ten cases a day in the country, just replace "blackberry" by smartphone X and "Capriles" by your favorite political leader, journalist, neighbour, etc.)

If plural murder and bloody repression á la Syria have not taken place yet it is indeed in part because of the oil money still coming in. It might be seriously diminished but at 100+USD a barrel there is enough to smooth over the most pressing issues, or at least to throw enough bones to postpone the day of reckoning.  But there are many other reasons why the regime is not going to crumble: simply there is no will to push it over the cliff. Many culprits here.

The military is the very first group that have allowed the country to become the cesspool of corruption and incompetence that it has become. Not that I am advocating, by any means, a coup: those that would perpetrate a coup are simply scum, worse than Maduro and his combo. And also, for all practical purposes, WE ARE ALREADY UNDER a military regime anyway, albeit one that did not need to make a coup in its grab for power. Chavez served it on a platter to them.

What I am referring to is to is what should be a serious military, one that is able to express discretely its concerns on delicate issues and tell any government which are the No-Noes on national security issues. For example, a serious military would have opposed the conversion of the country into a narco state. It would not have allowed Cuban meddling beyond medical and sports personnel. It would not have given up the Essequibo region under claim against Guyana. Certainly, it would have allowed some corruption, land expropriations, constitutional violations, and the like that are civilian responsibility; but at least on matters of national security it would have drawn the line. What is damming in the military silence and collaboration is that the consequences are synergistic: corruption, independence, incompetence are much more damaging than if the military had had the good idea to stay clear of Chavez, which it could have, even after the 2002 fiasco.

To hope anything from the military today, as many still pretend, is simply delusional. The Venezuelan military has allowed himself to become a political body, deeply flawed, deeply corrupt, probably irrecoverable. A new government will have the painful decision to either confront them and eliminate the army, or to allow the same dependency to continue. And as a narco state which has absolutely no qualms whatsoever, I am afraid that we are doomed. The only thing we can hope is that the military gets tired of the general decrepitude of the country and allow a change in its leadership as long as its privileges are preserved. I suppose, in a way, that could be seen as an improvement on our current conundrum.

The second group is the judicial system. That it has allowed itself to be co-opted as it did will remain one of our biggest historical shame. That what has happened to a couple of judges, one of them being judge Afiuni, was enough to silence the thousand of justice workers is simply incomprehensible. True, it happens in many dictatorships where the judicial system offers meek, if any, resistance, from Chile to Germany. But those dictatorships were of the "right" nature as "left" dictatorships usually removed judges outright and that was that. Venezuela will be the text book case on how leftists regimes can take over a judicial system without much trouble. Now we even see pitiful images of a formerly respected legal scholar, Rondon de Sanso, writing cheap panegyrics on Chavez, and even circumstancial poetry, I suppose to defend indirectly her hyper corrupt son in law, Rafael Ramirez. She went even as far as saying outright that not everybody deserves the right to a defense. Not only the Venezuelan judicial system has become a dead weight for recovering democracy, but its mere passivity is enough to help the criminals in office without needing much active support from tribunals.

The third group is the beneficiary of direct, massive corruption. It may not be that big, it may even include people that would normally vote against the regime, but it has power in that it can finance politicians it need to preserve its privileges. The problem with these people is that they have stolen so much that they cannot care less anymore about what happens to the country.  Let's take the latest example of the "bolibourgeois" of Derwick Associates who have overpriced power generating gear, stolen, let's not be afraid of words here, hundreds of millions of US dollars. Does anyone think that the kids that stole such amounts care one way or the other if people starve in Venezuela? If civil war starts? No. All their actions in defending themselves of the charges indicate that they are trying to find ways to steal yet more millions.

But the last group is the largest one and the most worrisome of the lot. To really have a sense of that group you probably need to live outside of Caracas, and to have regular contact with some sectors of "el pueblo". What casual and not so casual observers are failing to grasp is that some of the abuses and inefficiencies of the ruling chavismo are increasingly perceived as "normal", the ways things are and should remain. In short, after 14 years of pseudo revolution and misrule, a large chunk of the chavista vote has become a conservative vote, in the stricter sense of the term, to keep the status quo, to have a knee jerk refusal of any change.

It is difficult to characterize this group, even more to label them no matter how many labels one tries to make up. The fact of the matter is that these people got used to live in the situation they are, developed survival mechanisms, and are acutely aware that any change will take years to improve their lives.  For example, the work situation. For many people outside of Caracas it is clear that there are no jobs out there worth applying to. The private sector has all the trouble in the world to maintain its payroll, or is trying hard not to increase it considering the new prohibitive labor law and regime bias against employers. Simply put, if you have not belonged to a real payroll in the last 2-3 years it is almost impossible for you to get a job, even inside government as these jobs are reserved for the increasing number of "graduates" from bolivarian "universities" with mickey-mousy degrees.  However you can still have access to Mercal and other freebies as long as you keep voting for chavismo, or so you were convinced to do.  Basically, for the average familial units of that group, life depends maybe  from a single meager income, the others share in and stand in line for the occasional freebies.

Standing in line....   This has become a national sport. The habit seems to be now ingrained and I am getting tired of seeing those lines all the time, even at working hours which tells you volumes of the job scarcity.  But what is worse is that people have stopped complaining, and not only they are taking it in stride but apparently they have no problem spending the night in line to make sure that they get a number for next day, or the day after even. That magical day after number ensures that they will get something (meat? oil?) that they cannot get in the "normal lines" (corn flour? margarine?).

I do not know how to explain this social phenomenon that the opposition is careful not talk about because there is little they can do.  But for many Venezuelans now it has become "normal" to stand in line for anything they need, from food to medical care, with the aggravating factor that manyseem unable to link that with the economic failure of the regime.  This is what gradualism and 14 years of brain washing and media restriction do to a country, a new "normalcy".

Thus we reach the end of this post. What I hoped to convey is that there is a gigantic inertia against regime change. Maduro benefits from a large group of people that may not be happy with their lot but who for many reasons see no point in changing the way things are. Note that I did not discuss those who actively fight to block any regime change such as the talibans, the politicians that now they have no future if they find themselves in the opposition, those who vote for Chavez for some obscure need for revenge, etc... I am only talking of those who actually could do something but chose not to do so.

True, the social situation is explosive, polls are falling fast for Maduro (for a regime based on the charisma of Chavez a 2 point poll drop is like a 10 point drop in a normal democracy). There are also many potential fuses to provoke the social explosion, or merely an electoral reversal so big that not even fraud can keep the corrupt combo in office. However there are enough factors dampening the fuse that even if one of them were to be lighted up there is no telling when its effect could be felt. Maduro could last until December or for the full six years terms. He can fall bumped out by the opposition or by an internal chavista conspiracy. There is simply no telling. What is certain is that there is an unexpected inertia in his favor. Not love, but the next best thing for a politician, inertia.

Venezuela's Dog Days of August, as in barking

This summer has been nothing of the quiet vacation time, the regime pushing up its attacks while the country is supposedly anesthetized by the summer break. Well, it is always summer here, let's call it the school break. And yet for all its effort the regime is not reaching its goals. Not that the opposition is reaching theirs, mind you. What is at work here is the relentless crisis that seems to be reshuffling the deck constantly. Thus maybe it is time to do a short summary at where we stand at.


The regime

No more pussy footing here. The regime has barked the dictatorship in that it has announced its intention to demolish the opposition. For this, fake charges are being processed against the opposition leadership, media is bought out, left without printing paper, blackmailed. Assassination attempts are made up on a monthly basis. The regime will do anything it can strong-hand to diminish the adverse result coming its way in December, the last elections that will be held with a semblance of democracy in that the opposition should improve slightly its current holdings. That the opposition will improve its holdings is not of concern for the regime: enforcing of the Communes Law will neuter fast any town-hall lost. What the regime needs is to minimize the opposition gains to avoid to avoid further loss of legitimacy in public opinion, here or abroad. Nobody takes the Maduro regime seriously. All know the electoral fraud of last April and all are actually waiting for a major defeat in December to become more vocal about it.  Even the allied rogues are not as supportive as one may think they should.

Inside chavismo things are far from settled. Maduro seems more in place, but not on his own merits. In fact, his personal image is getting worse as it is painfully apparent that he is there because Chavez said so, not out of any merit he may have earned, besides his talents for sycophancy. Let's make it simple: the guy is clearly woefully unprepared for his job. Neither was Chavez but at least he had a sick charisma and a clear personal goal to direct his actions. Maduro seems lost at sea, being mean not enough to give sense to an administration. The impression of him being more in charge than two months ago seems to come more from chavismo rallying around him for electoral purposes, thus postponing the final settlement for next year.

Do not be fooled: chavismo troubles are far from being settled. That the candidates for mayor were appointed rather than selected through primaries proves beyond a doubt that chavismo is afraid of internal democracy as it is afraid of external one. Thus Cabello, for the time being, rallied to Maduro to the point of figuring both in the latest fake assassination target. One may suppose that equality in ridicule is a positive value inside chavismo.

The democrats

The big help for the opposition is the economic crisis that shows no sign of abating. No matter what the regime plans, they exhausted their funds for last October to reelect Chavez and barely had enough to ensure Maduro win in April, with the help of a few dead and multiple voters. The economic mess insure that no matter how much money they throw in the streets, basic food and power shortages will not be solved by December. And may actually get worse!  After all the currency keeps diving: the black market rate is 38 for a dollar today while the official is 6,3, and the SICAD is around 11 though the regime does nto give much through SICAD.  Think about it for a second: in 1999 when Chavez took office the dollar was around 0.5, and now at 30+ it means a >60 fold loss!!!!!  At some point it was meant to hit the regime even with an oil barrel at 100+.

There is trouble inside the democrats too, but compared to trouble inside chavismo, they are doing great. True, there has been a few money induced desertions but all in all the opposition is holding its ground and some of the dissident may still find the way back to the fold. and for those that do not find their way back, the electoral disaster awaiting them will have at least the benefit of purging the opposition of a certain number of moles and saboteurs. The real problems are elsewhere.

There still those idiot enough to preach abstention without offering anything in exchange. Truly, they would be working for chavismo they could not be more efficient. Short of marching together to burn down the CNE and Miraflores the only option is to participate actively in December AND man all the polling stations to minimize as much as possible multiple voting and the zombie vote. I do not see these voices do either one.  Fortunately it seems that the movement is starting to ebb as reality hits.

Another problem is coming from a few who decided now to criticize Capriles as the leader of the opposition. As if we had chance to pull one out of the hat to direct the campaign for next December... Certainly I never supported Capriles, only rallying him as the consensus leader. His 50% in April certainly give him the right to hold the helm until at least December 9. But some people seem to want faster exits to our crisis, or more intellectually pleasing ones such as this embarrassing tone deaf entry which proves that when you live for too long outside Venezuela......

Unfortunately the true problem is the loss of Globovision, the last network where albeit its limited national coverage the opposition could still make its points known. The new campaign is now run with a total governmental air waves hegemony where only snippets of the opposition campaign may be seen occasionally. The opposition is now forced to walk the walk and reply on Facebook and Twitter and web pages. We'll see how truly connected the country is.

September is coming. Now you have the scene as it is, before possible momentous changes start.  We'll see.