{UPDATED}
So here we are, at the famous November 11 deadline where supposedly we should evaluate the advances made by the "dialogue" started on October 30th. Listen carefully for the results, you may hear the crickets.
As a matter of fact, the half a dozen released political prisoners concession from the regime have been amply compensated through new arrests and further limitations to the National Assembly role. And as I said, the mere acceptance of a two weeks "truce" was enough to kill any hope for a recall election before January 10 and the High Court TSJ made sure of that today.
In short, the initial results of the truce seem to indicate that a disappointed opposition following is becoming indifferent as their need to deal with Christmas scarcities start to become more crucial, exactly what the regime wanted. Never mind that the appearance of some obvious divisions have not helped.
This is not to say that the regime benefited greatly. Its own internal divisions have also become more apparent, and the relentless crisis awaits for a mere incident to revive massive protests. Let's just say that the regime got some time for some propaganda that allowed a provisional stop to its own follower hemorrhage, multiplied by a minimum wage inducing inflation and the promise of some cheap toys in a CLAP food distribution subsidized bag.
The regime did get a hand from the US by the way- As soon as the dialogue was open Thomas Shannon from state flew in to Caracas. He met quickly with Maduro and then with the opposition, and left fast. For the life of me I cannot recall an involvement of Shannon with Venezuela that benefited the Venezuelan opposition, or at the very least that benefited it more, slightly more than the regime. Please, correct me if I am wrong. Whatever his reasons to come were, he got at least one thing, no Venezuela blow up until election day. Not that it helped much Hillary but that is another story. At least this Liberal can take small comfort in the loss of Hillary that Shannon will be out of office soon.
The fact of the matter is that this latest Shannon outing is in perfect following of 8 years of Obama basic do nothing on Venezuela, in the grand tradition of George Bush, already hinted at by Bill Clinton. And, I am willing to bet on it, a proud tradition that will be followed by Trump. As soon as he is sworn in he will realize that the US has more serious problems to deal with than the consequences of an idiotic electorate that voted back their country into Banana Republicorama. In addition, Trump enterprises will quickly look at possible hotel development in Venezuela and will realize that the beaches are contaminated, are not private enough, that there is no water nor food nor electricity, and that the personnel has been hopelessly damaged by 17 years of chavismo beggarization. Not even sending now available sheriff Arpaio to solve insecurity could motivate the Trump organization.
George Bush did not touch Chavez because he needed Venezuela oil for his Iraq adventure. That was that- Condi could be deeply insulted by Chavez and barely an eye would bat. Obama did not need oil that much anymore and, well, his interests were in Asia more than anywhere else. Venezuela only came into play when he got into the hubris that he would solve the transition away from the Castro and that he needed Venezuela to pay for it. What he thought to be his crowning legacy not only did not help him to have Hillary elected but will probably come back to haunt him in the ridicule field of fortune. The more so if Venezuela ends in a tragedy.
As for Trump, he did the true and tested Republican Cuban move in Florida. Late in the campaign he went to promise a stern hand against the Castro/Maduro regimes and voila, he got Florida. Probably this time around there were enough Venezuelans that could vote and did it so for him, falling for the GOP cause like Cubans have basically done since the 60ies, for nothing. What does Trump know about Venezuela besides it being a source for competitive ass when he was involved in beauty pageants? Still, it would not be hard for him to do better than Bush or Obama. Hillary on the other hand would have done better because she knew more about Venezuela. She tried to bring Obama around in his first term. And she expressed her opinion during the primaries using against the Bern his inability to condemn authoritarian leftist regimes. Am I the only one to remember that she gave an interview to Globovision when this one was under fire? Siiiiggghhhhh.......
So there we go, the dialogue as expected will fail because you cannot dialogue with the people that hold you in jail, the more so if they are themselves the felons. And nobody around cares much. From the Vatican to Argentina, they are kind of OK if you beat your wife as long as you do not make much noise.
-------------------
Update: as if this were to restore confidence. UNASUR head, totally discredited, untrustworthy, regime supporter Ernesto Samper was the one in charge to announce that they are all fine and dandy but that the results will be announced tomorrow morning. What is wrong with that?
First, new people joined in tonight. Tonight?
Second, the delays can only mean that they are not in agreement AND that each side itself is not in agreement. Consultations need to be held. We all know that these consultations mean that acceptance is far from certain.
Third, Samper was the spokes person? Nobody else could risk his good/bad name in front of a mic?
Forgive me if I go to bed without holding my breath. But then again, I could be proven wrong. Hopefully dead wrong.
Showing posts with label dictatorship. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dictatorship. Show all posts
Friday, 11 November 2016
Saturday, 22 October 2016
Recall Election gone. So what?
I suppose I should write about the annulation of the Recall Election. I had guessed long ago that it would not happen. The intensity of the dislike toward Maduro is so strong, even among chavistas, that the regime could not allow CNN document the huge lines that would have formed for three days this week. They had no stomach for that, it was better to use an idiotic legal sophistry and send it all ad patres.
To concur with the prevalent head line this week end that Venezuela is officially a dictatorship is an hypocrisy. I have long said it so and I am actually upset at some people having trying to avoid the D world finally pouting it. As if annulling the Recall Election was more despicable than, say, having political prisoners, forcing those freed into exile, stealing the budget of the nation, and more,
I will just comment on how ridiculous the pretext to kill the Recall Election was. In short, a sub judge in Podunk decided that the CNE had not done its job to vet all the signatures for the 1% collection to start the process. The ridicule, of declaring themselves incompetent through their beloved electoral ministry, CNE, is something they cannot worry about anymore. The obsessive objective is to never leave office. All considerations be dammed.
That is all that there is to it.
Now what?
To concur with the prevalent head line this week end that Venezuela is officially a dictatorship is an hypocrisy. I have long said it so and I am actually upset at some people having trying to avoid the D world finally pouting it. As if annulling the Recall Election was more despicable than, say, having political prisoners, forcing those freed into exile, stealing the budget of the nation, and more,
I will just comment on how ridiculous the pretext to kill the Recall Election was. In short, a sub judge in Podunk decided that the CNE had not done its job to vet all the signatures for the 1% collection to start the process. The ridicule, of declaring themselves incompetent through their beloved electoral ministry, CNE, is something they cannot worry about anymore. The obsessive objective is to never leave office. All considerations be dammed.
That is all that there is to it.
Now what?
Saturday, 15 October 2016
So? Can we all agree on the D word?
This is kind of a melancholy post. For years now I have been calling this a dictatorship. It took sometime to start seeing it expressed in the foreign press. And even as I type there are some in Venezuela or overseas (I am looking at you, Zapatero just for today's denialist) that still refuse to use the D word, expecting who knows what leniency from who knows where.
For me the D word applies since Chavez closed Radio Caracas in 2007. Or if you want a more material date you can use early 2013 when the constitutional coup of the moment allowed Maduro to become Chavez successor. And many other moments you may prefer. It really does not matter much, the dictatorial nature of the regime has been obvious from the start, from the very first social program of Chavez "Plan Bolivar 2000" that established the Venezuelan army as a discretionary manager of public money, and thus corruption.
I remember it all. Try me.
This year the dictatorship has been forced to become more frontal, more classical. Until this year the excuse that Venezuela was an autocratic regime and not a dictatorship was that the opposition did manage some electoral victories, that there were still an opposition paper here and there, albeit on trial. Etc. But all those were mere excuses. For the left there was no way that the beloved populist could have generated such a monstrously corrupt and inefficient system. For the right it was that declaring Venezuela to be a dictatorship would mean taking action for which democrats seem to have lost the taste for, and for quite a while now. The last outrage and successful international take, if I remember well, was against Fujimori who in my book is not any worse than Chavez, and certainly less calamitous for the general welfare of the people. Honduras and Paraguay were mere side shows where the changes eventually prevailed because, well, these changes had a true legal foundation.
But never was Chavez to be sternly criticized until Argentina's Macri made it to office. And yet, with more bark than bite so far.
But now things have become unacceptable and Venezuela is preparing to be suspended from Mercosur in a little bit more than a month while the OAS may suddenly decided to make a concrete Democratic Chart application. Only Erdogan receives Maduro.
Since last December the regime has proceded to the following:
*Using the judicial power to block almost all actions from the National Assembly
*Rule through a state of emergency system bypassing any legal control
*Go through a wave of arrestations and creation of political prisoners without any legal supervision, with "evidence" planted directly by the people performing the arrest
*Sue the last two remaining national daily papers
*Block any control activity that the National Assembly has in the constitution
*Suspend any election, going as far as saying that elections were not an important right
*Dispose of national assets to find fresh cash
*Decree that all remaining private companies must sell 50% of their production to the government
*Etc...... including heavy intelligence insulting propaganda to pretend that all is fine and dandy in Venezuela
But the latest was in my opinion a fatal mistake for the regime. Maduro decided that the National Budget would be approved by decree law, with the support of course of the Judicial Constitutional Court. Now, I am not going to go into the unconstitutional and illegal ways in which the regime decides taxation and how it disposes of the funds through appointed folks.Trust me, the case is clear against the regime.
Since "No taxation without representation", and we know how that ended, it has been the rule in any and every democracy that the budget must be validated by a parliament. Even if that parliament is elected under fraud, but there must be a Parliament Act. Why is such a parliamentary act a requirement? Because it is the contract symbol that the state is the guarantor of the money lent or borrowed. Failure to do such an act means simply that the only responsible party is the guy in charge and that his mere death slipping at night in the bathtub is enough to question whether his successor has any obligation in fulfilling previous commitments.
In short, if you lend money to the Venezuelan government as of today, you have zero guarantee, LEGAL guarantee, that you will ever be paid back (that we are broke and unable to pay our debt is another story, but I digress). And considering that the guy in charge, Maduro, is an ass, with a shaky hold at best, I wonder who will bail the country out...
There are two implications here.
First, obviously, that taking over discretionary disposition of all the nation's income is the most naked act of dictatorship a regime can do. Never mind that in the same ceremony where the "budget" was signed Maduro already decided that he would not give money to any opposition district which by law he is forced to do, even if he has way to deliver less than the survival requirements of such districts. Thus now we are free from having to discuss over and over the dictatorial nature of the regime. All understand money, all understand that Maduro has officially privatized the budget. Even commies understand that.
The second consideration is that we are in big trouble. If the regime has resorted to such an extreme move it is because it feels that its end is near, that too many inside the regime are about to meet their legal destiny in some court. Since it has been proven amply that the regime could not care less about the welfare of the people (starvation cases, distressing lack of heath care for which I can personally vouch for as my SO has been left without chemotherapeutic without the possibility of legally buy it overseas) then it has been easy for them to take the final decision.
By privatizing the national budget the regime grabs directly whatever is left of the country resources to use them to support Cuba and the repression machinery needed to remain in office. That is right, there is not enough money for the rest, it will all be used to sustain the repression and ensuring a minimum of popular support to be able to recruit enough of those that will do that repression. I will note that the forced sale of 50% of production (that will probably not be paid on time, if at all, and after having lost all relevant value due to inflation) represents about what the regime can physically manage in that legal robbery handling, and what it needs roughly for its CLAP distribution system (who not surprisingly in the beggarly nature of chavismo support has allowed Maduro to get back to 30% in polls). Never mind that by forcing such sale the regime acknowledges that all the expropriations made under Chavez have only yielded a cemetery of once food producing businesses.
So there it is, the regime has played its last card.
The regime could not possibly care less about what the fate of the country and its people may be. There is no other card to be played, there is no expropriation that can be done which can satisfy the needs of the people, unless looting of homes is next. Expropriation of banks is useless when inflation is scheduled to be 4 digits next year. Nothing left for populism, not even borrowing as no one will be foolish enough to lend a penny to the the regime now. All has been wasted. There is only the little bit of food produced by the private sector and a worthless budget which can at least pay for the criminals that are needed for public order.
For me the D word applies since Chavez closed Radio Caracas in 2007. Or if you want a more material date you can use early 2013 when the constitutional coup of the moment allowed Maduro to become Chavez successor. And many other moments you may prefer. It really does not matter much, the dictatorial nature of the regime has been obvious from the start, from the very first social program of Chavez "Plan Bolivar 2000" that established the Venezuelan army as a discretionary manager of public money, and thus corruption.
I remember it all. Try me.
This year the dictatorship has been forced to become more frontal, more classical. Until this year the excuse that Venezuela was an autocratic regime and not a dictatorship was that the opposition did manage some electoral victories, that there were still an opposition paper here and there, albeit on trial. Etc. But all those were mere excuses. For the left there was no way that the beloved populist could have generated such a monstrously corrupt and inefficient system. For the right it was that declaring Venezuela to be a dictatorship would mean taking action for which democrats seem to have lost the taste for, and for quite a while now. The last outrage and successful international take, if I remember well, was against Fujimori who in my book is not any worse than Chavez, and certainly less calamitous for the general welfare of the people. Honduras and Paraguay were mere side shows where the changes eventually prevailed because, well, these changes had a true legal foundation.
But never was Chavez to be sternly criticized until Argentina's Macri made it to office. And yet, with more bark than bite so far.
But now things have become unacceptable and Venezuela is preparing to be suspended from Mercosur in a little bit more than a month while the OAS may suddenly decided to make a concrete Democratic Chart application. Only Erdogan receives Maduro.
Since last December the regime has proceded to the following:
*Using the judicial power to block almost all actions from the National Assembly
*Rule through a state of emergency system bypassing any legal control
*Go through a wave of arrestations and creation of political prisoners without any legal supervision, with "evidence" planted directly by the people performing the arrest
*Sue the last two remaining national daily papers
*Block any control activity that the National Assembly has in the constitution
*Suspend any election, going as far as saying that elections were not an important right
*Dispose of national assets to find fresh cash
*Decree that all remaining private companies must sell 50% of their production to the government
*Etc...... including heavy intelligence insulting propaganda to pretend that all is fine and dandy in Venezuela
But the latest was in my opinion a fatal mistake for the regime. Maduro decided that the National Budget would be approved by decree law, with the support of course of the Judicial Constitutional Court. Now, I am not going to go into the unconstitutional and illegal ways in which the regime decides taxation and how it disposes of the funds through appointed folks.Trust me, the case is clear against the regime.
Since "No taxation without representation", and we know how that ended, it has been the rule in any and every democracy that the budget must be validated by a parliament. Even if that parliament is elected under fraud, but there must be a Parliament Act. Why is such a parliamentary act a requirement? Because it is the contract symbol that the state is the guarantor of the money lent or borrowed. Failure to do such an act means simply that the only responsible party is the guy in charge and that his mere death slipping at night in the bathtub is enough to question whether his successor has any obligation in fulfilling previous commitments.
In short, if you lend money to the Venezuelan government as of today, you have zero guarantee, LEGAL guarantee, that you will ever be paid back (that we are broke and unable to pay our debt is another story, but I digress). And considering that the guy in charge, Maduro, is an ass, with a shaky hold at best, I wonder who will bail the country out...
There are two implications here.
First, obviously, that taking over discretionary disposition of all the nation's income is the most naked act of dictatorship a regime can do. Never mind that in the same ceremony where the "budget" was signed Maduro already decided that he would not give money to any opposition district which by law he is forced to do, even if he has way to deliver less than the survival requirements of such districts. Thus now we are free from having to discuss over and over the dictatorial nature of the regime. All understand money, all understand that Maduro has officially privatized the budget. Even commies understand that.
The second consideration is that we are in big trouble. If the regime has resorted to such an extreme move it is because it feels that its end is near, that too many inside the regime are about to meet their legal destiny in some court. Since it has been proven amply that the regime could not care less about the welfare of the people (starvation cases, distressing lack of heath care for which I can personally vouch for as my SO has been left without chemotherapeutic without the possibility of legally buy it overseas) then it has been easy for them to take the final decision.
By privatizing the national budget the regime grabs directly whatever is left of the country resources to use them to support Cuba and the repression machinery needed to remain in office. That is right, there is not enough money for the rest, it will all be used to sustain the repression and ensuring a minimum of popular support to be able to recruit enough of those that will do that repression. I will note that the forced sale of 50% of production (that will probably not be paid on time, if at all, and after having lost all relevant value due to inflation) represents about what the regime can physically manage in that legal robbery handling, and what it needs roughly for its CLAP distribution system (who not surprisingly in the beggarly nature of chavismo support has allowed Maduro to get back to 30% in polls). Never mind that by forcing such sale the regime acknowledges that all the expropriations made under Chavez have only yielded a cemetery of once food producing businesses.
So there it is, the regime has played its last card.
The regime could not possibly care less about what the fate of the country and its people may be. There is no other card to be played, there is no expropriation that can be done which can satisfy the needs of the people, unless looting of homes is next. Expropriation of banks is useless when inflation is scheduled to be 4 digits next year. Nothing left for populism, not even borrowing as no one will be foolish enough to lend a penny to the the regime now. All has been wasted. There is only the little bit of food produced by the private sector and a worthless budget which can at least pay for the criminals that are needed for public order.
Monday, 3 October 2016
The happy-go-lucky dictatorial news of the day
So the regime of Nicolas Maduro has a problem: how to pass the 2017 national budget controlled by the opposition held National Assembly? Really, if we cannot loot in peace, what good is the revolution for!?
So very simple! Since there is a conflict between the National Assembly, NA, and the judicial power, TSJ, that this one annuls 99% of whatever the National Assembly does, we just will decree next year budget and that is that. After all, the budget is against the alleged "guera economica" whatever that means. Il suffisait d'y penser!
Maduro sent today a letter to the TSJ for "consultation". Guess what the result will be?
But the NA has a trump card, if it is willing to play it. Since the regime will require much extra additional debt, the NA just need to say that a budget passed without its approval does not engage the state in paying future debts contracted on such budget. Let's see who is going to lend Maduro money under such terms.
Meanwhile you can see yet another example on how dictatorships work. Books will be written.
So very simple! Since there is a conflict between the National Assembly, NA, and the judicial power, TSJ, that this one annuls 99% of whatever the National Assembly does, we just will decree next year budget and that is that. After all, the budget is against the alleged "guera economica" whatever that means. Il suffisait d'y penser!
Maduro sent today a letter to the TSJ for "consultation". Guess what the result will be?
But the NA has a trump card, if it is willing to play it. Since the regime will require much extra additional debt, the NA just need to say that a budget passed without its approval does not engage the state in paying future debts contracted on such budget. Let's see who is going to lend Maduro money under such terms.
Meanwhile you can see yet another example on how dictatorships work. Books will be written.
Thursday, 21 November 2013
Just a day in the life of a dictatorship: Maduro starts applying the enabling law
I never cease to be impressed by the deep denial that still exists in some people as to Venezuela being a military dictatorship. Sure enough, there are "elections", a civilian "president" is the one "ruling", you can travel if you can find an airplane ticket, you still can read this blog though more and more the regime practices blocking certain pages, there are "so few" political prisoners, the hundred of thousand people that emigrated out are simply not genuine patriots, etc.
Fortunately for those that still do not understand that dictatorships in the XXI century are of a very different species than the earlier ones, Maduro first day with his new toy should be the beginning of enlightenment. Even among the opposition: this Saturday finally Capriles has called for protests all around the country. About time.....
There is no need to go much in the details of the two new laws signed today: they are, as expected, designed by the regime to control more the economy and punish those it wants to punish. The laws, as the ones to be published in the next months, are mere excuses that make the task easier in finding motives to crack down. As all such type of laws they will not work out, and in the end they never worked in any country. They are mere examples of laws that a dictatorship emits, nothing more, nothing less. What is more interesting is how the regime bends backward further, if it were possible, the constitution.
One law is to promote corruption. Through this law Maduro creates a Centro Nacional de Comercio Exterior or National Center for Foreign Trade. Maduro's reported words are rather confusing. Apparently now if you want to import anything you need to pass though that CNCE and sign a contract that proves you will use the dollars approved as intended and that you will be willing to be monitored in all your operations. We can sort of deal with that, it is just a more centralized CADIVI where those who have the power to grant the dollars, corrupt or not, will remain in similar posts. Not only this will not stop corruption, it will only make it a little bit more circumvented and thus only increase the price of bribes that you will need to pay to get access to dollars to keep your business running.
Where Maduro loses us is with his announcement is that dollars that are approved will have to be deposited in a local account instead of being transferred to your directly to your provider as it should be the case. How do I transfer dollars from my account to my provider if 1) I cannot have an account in dollars inside Venezuela and 2) there is a currency control exchange that forbids me such transfers? Is this a circumvented way to force providers to "invest" in Venezuela? A disguised devaluation as such transfers could be taxed? Was it just yet another idiotic misunderstanding of Maduro?
The other law, as expected, was to tie together a series of previous laws that will allow the regime to fix not only prices but also how much you are allowed to make in your business. In short, it is the law that is going to destroy large sectors of the economy that require flexibility in their earnings (seasonal character, for example) or that sell few large ticket items that need large margins to sustain business in between sales. Maduro claims that this law decree will stabilize the economy. He may be right, it will be base line stability.
Now, if this does not reek enough of dictatorship, let me add that Maduro wants to give the price and earning control law a character of "organica" which does not mean at all wholesome and organic. In Venezuelan legal tradition there are the so called organic laws which need to be voted by 2/3 of Parliament and can only be modified with a 2/3 vote. The intention is to approve through such laws what the institutions of the country should be, things that are dangerous to change according to the whim of any government. In other words organic laws are in principle the laws that are used to implement the constitutional provisions as to how is the country organized, and NOT necessarily how it is run since this requires more flexibility to account for changes in economy or society.
Thus the beauty of this Maduro initiative: a president that stole his election in April, that is, 1) who does not have 50% of the electorate behind him, 2) has used a 3/5 vote of an assembly which has been obtained courtesy of gerrymandering, blackmailing representatives and firing others, 3) this 3/5 by the way representing LESS votes of the people in 2010 than the 2/5 sitting across the aisle, to 4) get a law that in the future can only be modified by a 2/3 vote even if it was in practice voted in with a spurious 3/5. And he will get his wish because he only needs the high court, TSJ, to validate the new law as such. Of course, a high court that has violated the constitution so that Maduro can become president is certain to grant him his wish.
Now, if with this you still think that Maduro is not a dictator then please, do not read this blog anymore. Though, of course, you may be able to read it for only a few days more, until the regime blocks my page or something.
Fortunately for those that still do not understand that dictatorships in the XXI century are of a very different species than the earlier ones, Maduro first day with his new toy should be the beginning of enlightenment. Even among the opposition: this Saturday finally Capriles has called for protests all around the country. About time.....
There is no need to go much in the details of the two new laws signed today: they are, as expected, designed by the regime to control more the economy and punish those it wants to punish. The laws, as the ones to be published in the next months, are mere excuses that make the task easier in finding motives to crack down. As all such type of laws they will not work out, and in the end they never worked in any country. They are mere examples of laws that a dictatorship emits, nothing more, nothing less. What is more interesting is how the regime bends backward further, if it were possible, the constitution.
One law is to promote corruption. Through this law Maduro creates a Centro Nacional de Comercio Exterior or National Center for Foreign Trade. Maduro's reported words are rather confusing. Apparently now if you want to import anything you need to pass though that CNCE and sign a contract that proves you will use the dollars approved as intended and that you will be willing to be monitored in all your operations. We can sort of deal with that, it is just a more centralized CADIVI where those who have the power to grant the dollars, corrupt or not, will remain in similar posts. Not only this will not stop corruption, it will only make it a little bit more circumvented and thus only increase the price of bribes that you will need to pay to get access to dollars to keep your business running.
Where Maduro loses us is with his announcement is that dollars that are approved will have to be deposited in a local account instead of being transferred to your directly to your provider as it should be the case. How do I transfer dollars from my account to my provider if 1) I cannot have an account in dollars inside Venezuela and 2) there is a currency control exchange that forbids me such transfers? Is this a circumvented way to force providers to "invest" in Venezuela? A disguised devaluation as such transfers could be taxed? Was it just yet another idiotic misunderstanding of Maduro?
The other law, as expected, was to tie together a series of previous laws that will allow the regime to fix not only prices but also how much you are allowed to make in your business. In short, it is the law that is going to destroy large sectors of the economy that require flexibility in their earnings (seasonal character, for example) or that sell few large ticket items that need large margins to sustain business in between sales. Maduro claims that this law decree will stabilize the economy. He may be right, it will be base line stability.
Now, if this does not reek enough of dictatorship, let me add that Maduro wants to give the price and earning control law a character of "organica" which does not mean at all wholesome and organic. In Venezuelan legal tradition there are the so called organic laws which need to be voted by 2/3 of Parliament and can only be modified with a 2/3 vote. The intention is to approve through such laws what the institutions of the country should be, things that are dangerous to change according to the whim of any government. In other words organic laws are in principle the laws that are used to implement the constitutional provisions as to how is the country organized, and NOT necessarily how it is run since this requires more flexibility to account for changes in economy or society.
Thus the beauty of this Maduro initiative: a president that stole his election in April, that is, 1) who does not have 50% of the electorate behind him, 2) has used a 3/5 vote of an assembly which has been obtained courtesy of gerrymandering, blackmailing representatives and firing others, 3) this 3/5 by the way representing LESS votes of the people in 2010 than the 2/5 sitting across the aisle, to 4) get a law that in the future can only be modified by a 2/3 vote even if it was in practice voted in with a spurious 3/5. And he will get his wish because he only needs the high court, TSJ, to validate the new law as such. Of course, a high court that has violated the constitution so that Maduro can become president is certain to grant him his wish.
Now, if with this you still think that Maduro is not a dictator then please, do not read this blog anymore. Though, of course, you may be able to read it for only a few days more, until the regime blocks my page or something.
Wednesday, 30 October 2013
How to hold an electoral campaign under Venezuela neo-fascism?
For long time readers of this blog the title should not come as a surprise. It has been long that I have rejected the democratic pretense of the regime as well as the one coming from those that still pretend to comment "objectively" on Venezuela. That is those who try to find a fig leaf of democracy, be they foreign journalists, bloggers or actual Venezuelan journos. As far as I am concerned we are in a military regime since at least late 2010, a regime which is turning openly fascist since late 2012. If you do not agree at least in part with me, then you have been wasting your time reading this blog.
On the fig leaf front there is an incipient electoral campaign for local elections this December. Indeed, there will be massive abuse and cheating from the regime. And yet there is little else we can do than go and vote, unless you are willing to wield your guns against the gang of thugs that hold Miraflores Palace hostage. The resolution will come only when chavismo will break up, violently, and self destruct. Perhaps sooner than later, but whatever the time frame is our participation in the election can only speed up the process.
This being said, let's look at the campaign which yesterday has taken a clearly fascist turn. I am not using the word communist, note, because the inspiration is from Cuba and Cuba is now under an aging fascist system. True communism would have never tolerated stuff like the general prostitution of jineteras at the fake luxury sea front of Varadero. By writing this I do not intend to state that one system is better than the other, merely that their vices are not the same in their quest for totalitarian control and equal meting out of misery.
To help you understand let's start with one of the three things that happened yesterday, the minor one if you will, but one that will help you understand better what happened in Caracas. The billboard above has showed up first yesterday in San Felipe, in at least three locations that I have noticed. It is Chavez heirs electoral strategy: Chavez. That is right, in the last 10 months Chavez heirs have NOTHING to show for their tenure so once again they resort to the only thing that has worked in the past, the image of Chavez.
The billboard deserves a speedy semantical analysis.
First, they use the "martyrdom" picture of Chavez, in his last 2012 campaign appearance, when he stood under the rain to inspire pity and maximize his appeal. His Che moment of sorts though it probably cost him a few days of life which I am sure he did not mind paying in his narcissistic egotism.
Second, it is addressed to ¡CHAVISTAS! Not you or me. They are not trying to get new votes due to their track record. They know better: they need to motivate the chavista lumpen that has been battered by inflation, scarcity, crime, lack of jobs, etc... to go and vote for them yet one more time. And thus the second line: to honor Chavez memory. Period. No other argument.
Third, since there is nothing positive to run on, there is the need to make a crass appeal to war, battles, heroism and what not, Chavez style again. And thus the slogan, "Unity, fighting, battles and victory!" empty, devoid of any single new idea. Very fascist if you ask me, where what passes as ideas are artificial constructs designed to polarize society in order not to discuss what could be the true solutions to our real problems. Or rather, since this is Venezuela, a banal but vicious thugocracy that uses selected simple minded fascisto/communist methods to hold to power so as to avoid the jail they deserve.
The bottom is the Warholian take on Chavez eyes and the party colors to suggest mass and unity (GPP, Great Patriotic Pole). Fluff!
When a "poltical" group has reached such depth of intellectual emptiness you cannot be surprised by the visceral moves they took yesterday.
The first one was a very clumsy attempt by foreign minister Jaua who pretends to be the true governor of Miranda. For memory, defeated by Capriles last December in spite of all the electoral abuse and blackmail and cheating, the regime named him special agent for the Tuy valley of Miranda which meant that he became an appointed parallel governor, probably with more money than Capriles to rule effectively the state that duly voted for him. Again, a neo-totalitarian contempt for democracy.
Sure enough siphoning money from one side to buy votes on the other created financial havoc and the Miranda workers decided to march in protest to force the central government to give Miranda its full share of the budget. Everybody knows of course that the regime will pinch every single penny it can against Capriles even if hardship for innocent follows. When you play dirty it helps not to have a bit of scruples. So Jaua started an infantile blockade of Caracas access through a pretend pro chavista protest against the "fascist" "coup mongering" march of Capriles. It was so clumsy that within a couple of hours it seems that Jaua was brought back to heel and the marchers could go present their demands.
That chavista fiasco was accompanied by yet a new scale up of the rhetoric. While Caracas was blockaded for a few hours somebody started placarding the posters below.
Now, this is extremely grave because it calls for the public lynching of the three top opposition politicians today: Capriles, Lopez and Machado. Any crazed chavista can feel that if he were to kill, or at least hurt one of them, he would not be punished. And even if we assume that a lose canon took such an mistaken initiative with these posters of hate, there is a video that clearly shows that Maduro is responsible, the inspiration (at the end of this post).
What these posters do, besides trying to imitate horror show aesthetic with the faces of the three, in particular the one of Capriles, is to place the blame for the current economic crisis on them. That is, a regime that controls everything, from the armed forces to any office regulating production claims that the three guys are able on their own to turn off the power grids of Venezuela, disrupt the general food distribution system, create the high criminal insecurity.
That is exactly what the Nazis did against the Jews after 1933.
Maduro encouraging public violence against opposition leadership. He uses the words "pueblo reconocelos" (9 sec) "trilogia del mal" (4 sec) "enemigos de la patria" (6 sec)
On the fig leaf front there is an incipient electoral campaign for local elections this December. Indeed, there will be massive abuse and cheating from the regime. And yet there is little else we can do than go and vote, unless you are willing to wield your guns against the gang of thugs that hold Miraflores Palace hostage. The resolution will come only when chavismo will break up, violently, and self destruct. Perhaps sooner than later, but whatever the time frame is our participation in the election can only speed up the process.
This being said, let's look at the campaign which yesterday has taken a clearly fascist turn. I am not using the word communist, note, because the inspiration is from Cuba and Cuba is now under an aging fascist system. True communism would have never tolerated stuff like the general prostitution of jineteras at the fake luxury sea front of Varadero. By writing this I do not intend to state that one system is better than the other, merely that their vices are not the same in their quest for totalitarian control and equal meting out of misery.
To help you understand let's start with one of the three things that happened yesterday, the minor one if you will, but one that will help you understand better what happened in Caracas. The billboard above has showed up first yesterday in San Felipe, in at least three locations that I have noticed. It is Chavez heirs electoral strategy: Chavez. That is right, in the last 10 months Chavez heirs have NOTHING to show for their tenure so once again they resort to the only thing that has worked in the past, the image of Chavez.
The billboard deserves a speedy semantical analysis.
First, they use the "martyrdom" picture of Chavez, in his last 2012 campaign appearance, when he stood under the rain to inspire pity and maximize his appeal. His Che moment of sorts though it probably cost him a few days of life which I am sure he did not mind paying in his narcissistic egotism.
Second, it is addressed to ¡CHAVISTAS! Not you or me. They are not trying to get new votes due to their track record. They know better: they need to motivate the chavista lumpen that has been battered by inflation, scarcity, crime, lack of jobs, etc... to go and vote for them yet one more time. And thus the second line: to honor Chavez memory. Period. No other argument.
Third, since there is nothing positive to run on, there is the need to make a crass appeal to war, battles, heroism and what not, Chavez style again. And thus the slogan, "Unity, fighting, battles and victory!" empty, devoid of any single new idea. Very fascist if you ask me, where what passes as ideas are artificial constructs designed to polarize society in order not to discuss what could be the true solutions to our real problems. Or rather, since this is Venezuela, a banal but vicious thugocracy that uses selected simple minded fascisto/communist methods to hold to power so as to avoid the jail they deserve.
The bottom is the Warholian take on Chavez eyes and the party colors to suggest mass and unity (GPP, Great Patriotic Pole). Fluff!
When a "poltical" group has reached such depth of intellectual emptiness you cannot be surprised by the visceral moves they took yesterday.
The first one was a very clumsy attempt by foreign minister Jaua who pretends to be the true governor of Miranda. For memory, defeated by Capriles last December in spite of all the electoral abuse and blackmail and cheating, the regime named him special agent for the Tuy valley of Miranda which meant that he became an appointed parallel governor, probably with more money than Capriles to rule effectively the state that duly voted for him. Again, a neo-totalitarian contempt for democracy.
Sure enough siphoning money from one side to buy votes on the other created financial havoc and the Miranda workers decided to march in protest to force the central government to give Miranda its full share of the budget. Everybody knows of course that the regime will pinch every single penny it can against Capriles even if hardship for innocent follows. When you play dirty it helps not to have a bit of scruples. So Jaua started an infantile blockade of Caracas access through a pretend pro chavista protest against the "fascist" "coup mongering" march of Capriles. It was so clumsy that within a couple of hours it seems that Jaua was brought back to heel and the marchers could go present their demands.
That chavista fiasco was accompanied by yet a new scale up of the rhetoric. While Caracas was blockaded for a few hours somebody started placarding the posters below.
 |
| Memorize their faces The trilogy of evil They take away your light They take away your food They take away your peace Enough violence |
What these posters do, besides trying to imitate horror show aesthetic with the faces of the three, in particular the one of Capriles, is to place the blame for the current economic crisis on them. That is, a regime that controls everything, from the armed forces to any office regulating production claims that the three guys are able on their own to turn off the power grids of Venezuela, disrupt the general food distribution system, create the high criminal insecurity.
That is exactly what the Nazis did against the Jews after 1933.
Maduro encouraging public violence against opposition leadership. He uses the words "pueblo reconocelos" (9 sec) "trilogia del mal" (4 sec) "enemigos de la patria" (6 sec)
Tuesday, 15 October 2013
The repressive, dictatorship consecrating, enabling law is out
 |
| Original |
The excuse the government offered is that there is a need to fight corruption and to face down a severe economic crisis. But the solution offered by this enabling law is to silence the opposition, find corruption there and among some token chavistas for good measure, more to make room for other corrupt chavista officials rather than any good intention. The economic measures are fake ones as a regime whose currency went from 500 to a dollar to 50,000 to a dollar in 14 years has no credibility anymore on this respect. Amen of an inflation currently at 50% annual. As long as the perpetrators of this economic disaster remain in office no enabling law of any type will solve the problems. This is not a matter of laws, it is a matter of personnel.
 |
| 80 years later copy |
Article 1, part 1, is supposedly to fight corruption.
Item 1-A states that the law wants to rebuild the morality of public administration and orient it to socialist values. We are not far from official segregation, Nuremberg style.
Items 1-B and 1-C give the executive power of the country right to create mew types of crimes and fix the sanctions. See above.
Item 1-D, just as Hitler's article 4 was, allows the regime to take the international measures it sees fit, which basically means expropriate whatever foreign companies own here.
1-E is to make sure opposition parties cannot find electoral financing.
Items 1-F through 1-H are to give the government sole control on any foreign currency in the country.
Part 2 leads to the economic items.
Item 2-A basically gives the regime leeway to get rid of trade unions and contracting. That is, the trade unions of state companies that protest because the regime does not fulfill its obligations will be shut down.
Items 1-B through 1-E give the regime the power to intervene at will any aspect of economic activity, deciding what is done and by whom. Item 1-F, the last one, is in fact a veiled disguise that expropriations will now proceed without compensations since it will be "to guarantee the right of the people to have goods and services, safe, of quality and just price". This is impossible to achieve unless you force producers to sell at a loss if necessary, or expropriate them without the burden of owing the value of the property.
Now, does anyone still think we are not in a dictatorship?
You are of course all welcome to find the adequate parallels to any enabling law or repressive totalitarian regime of your preference.
Tuesday, 27 August 2013
Venezuela's Dog Days of August, as in barking
This summer has been nothing of the quiet vacation time, the regime pushing up its attacks while the country is supposedly anesthetized by the summer break. Well, it is always summer here, let's call it the school break. And yet for all its effort the regime is not reaching its goals. Not that the opposition is reaching theirs, mind you. What is at work here is the relentless crisis that seems to be reshuffling the deck constantly. Thus maybe it is time to do a short summary at where we stand at.
The regime
No more pussy footing here. The regime has barked the dictatorship in that it has announced its intention to demolish the opposition. For this, fake charges are being processed against the opposition leadership, media is bought out, left without printing paper, blackmailed. Assassination attempts are made up on a monthly basis. The regime will do anything it can strong-hand to diminish the adverse result coming its way in December, the last elections that will be held with a semblance of democracy in that the opposition should improve slightly its current holdings. That the opposition will improve its holdings is not of concern for the regime: enforcing of the Communes Law will neuter fast any town-hall lost. What the regime needs is to minimize the opposition gains to avoid to avoid further loss of legitimacy in public opinion, here or abroad. Nobody takes the Maduro regime seriously. All know the electoral fraud of last April and all are actually waiting for a major defeat in December to become more vocal about it. Even the allied rogues are not as supportive as one may think they should.
Inside chavismo things are far from settled. Maduro seems more in place, but not on his own merits. In fact, his personal image is getting worse as it is painfully apparent that he is there because Chavez said so, not out of any merit he may have earned, besides his talents for sycophancy. Let's make it simple: the guy is clearly woefully unprepared for his job. Neither was Chavez but at least he had a sick charisma and a clear personal goal to direct his actions. Maduro seems lost at sea, being mean not enough to give sense to an administration. The impression of him being more in charge than two months ago seems to come more from chavismo rallying around him for electoral purposes, thus postponing the final settlement for next year.
Do not be fooled: chavismo troubles are far from being settled. That the candidates for mayor were appointed rather than selected through primaries proves beyond a doubt that chavismo is afraid of internal democracy as it is afraid of external one. Thus Cabello, for the time being, rallied to Maduro to the point of figuring both in the latest fake assassination target. One may suppose that equality in ridicule is a positive value inside chavismo.
The democrats
The big help for the opposition is the economic crisis that shows no sign of abating. No matter what the regime plans, they exhausted their funds for last October to reelect Chavez and barely had enough to ensure Maduro win in April, with the help of a few dead and multiple voters. The economic mess insure that no matter how much money they throw in the streets, basic food and power shortages will not be solved by December. And may actually get worse! After all the currency keeps diving: the black market rate is 38 for a dollar today while the official is 6,3, and the SICAD is around 11 though the regime does nto give much through SICAD. Think about it for a second: in 1999 when Chavez took office the dollar was around 0.5, and now at 30+ it means a >60 fold loss!!!!! At some point it was meant to hit the regime even with an oil barrel at 100+.
There is trouble inside the democrats too, but compared to trouble inside chavismo, they are doing great. True, there has been a few money induced desertions but all in all the opposition is holding its ground and some of the dissident may still find the way back to the fold. and for those that do not find their way back, the electoral disaster awaiting them will have at least the benefit of purging the opposition of a certain number of moles and saboteurs. The real problems are elsewhere.
There still those idiot enough to preach abstention without offering anything in exchange. Truly, they would be working for chavismo they could not be more efficient. Short of marching together to burn down the CNE and Miraflores the only option is to participate actively in December AND man all the polling stations to minimize as much as possible multiple voting and the zombie vote. I do not see these voices do either one. Fortunately it seems that the movement is starting to ebb as reality hits.
Another problem is coming from a few who decided now to criticize Capriles as the leader of the opposition. As if we had chance to pull one out of the hat to direct the campaign for next December... Certainly I never supported Capriles, only rallying him as the consensus leader. His 50% in April certainly give him the right to hold the helm until at least December 9. But some people seem to want faster exits to our crisis, or more intellectually pleasing ones such as this embarrassing tone deaf entry which proves that when you live for too long outside Venezuela......
Unfortunately the true problem is the loss of Globovision, the last network where albeit its limited national coverage the opposition could still make its points known. The new campaign is now run with a total governmental air waves hegemony where only snippets of the opposition campaign may be seen occasionally. The opposition is now forced to walk the walk and reply on Facebook and Twitter and web pages. We'll see how truly connected the country is.
September is coming. Now you have the scene as it is, before possible momentous changes start. We'll see.
The regime
No more pussy footing here. The regime has barked the dictatorship in that it has announced its intention to demolish the opposition. For this, fake charges are being processed against the opposition leadership, media is bought out, left without printing paper, blackmailed. Assassination attempts are made up on a monthly basis. The regime will do anything it can strong-hand to diminish the adverse result coming its way in December, the last elections that will be held with a semblance of democracy in that the opposition should improve slightly its current holdings. That the opposition will improve its holdings is not of concern for the regime: enforcing of the Communes Law will neuter fast any town-hall lost. What the regime needs is to minimize the opposition gains to avoid to avoid further loss of legitimacy in public opinion, here or abroad. Nobody takes the Maduro regime seriously. All know the electoral fraud of last April and all are actually waiting for a major defeat in December to become more vocal about it. Even the allied rogues are not as supportive as one may think they should.
Inside chavismo things are far from settled. Maduro seems more in place, but not on his own merits. In fact, his personal image is getting worse as it is painfully apparent that he is there because Chavez said so, not out of any merit he may have earned, besides his talents for sycophancy. Let's make it simple: the guy is clearly woefully unprepared for his job. Neither was Chavez but at least he had a sick charisma and a clear personal goal to direct his actions. Maduro seems lost at sea, being mean not enough to give sense to an administration. The impression of him being more in charge than two months ago seems to come more from chavismo rallying around him for electoral purposes, thus postponing the final settlement for next year.
Do not be fooled: chavismo troubles are far from being settled. That the candidates for mayor were appointed rather than selected through primaries proves beyond a doubt that chavismo is afraid of internal democracy as it is afraid of external one. Thus Cabello, for the time being, rallied to Maduro to the point of figuring both in the latest fake assassination target. One may suppose that equality in ridicule is a positive value inside chavismo.
The democrats
The big help for the opposition is the economic crisis that shows no sign of abating. No matter what the regime plans, they exhausted their funds for last October to reelect Chavez and barely had enough to ensure Maduro win in April, with the help of a few dead and multiple voters. The economic mess insure that no matter how much money they throw in the streets, basic food and power shortages will not be solved by December. And may actually get worse! After all the currency keeps diving: the black market rate is 38 for a dollar today while the official is 6,3, and the SICAD is around 11 though the regime does nto give much through SICAD. Think about it for a second: in 1999 when Chavez took office the dollar was around 0.5, and now at 30+ it means a >60 fold loss!!!!! At some point it was meant to hit the regime even with an oil barrel at 100+.
There is trouble inside the democrats too, but compared to trouble inside chavismo, they are doing great. True, there has been a few money induced desertions but all in all the opposition is holding its ground and some of the dissident may still find the way back to the fold. and for those that do not find their way back, the electoral disaster awaiting them will have at least the benefit of purging the opposition of a certain number of moles and saboteurs. The real problems are elsewhere.
There still those idiot enough to preach abstention without offering anything in exchange. Truly, they would be working for chavismo they could not be more efficient. Short of marching together to burn down the CNE and Miraflores the only option is to participate actively in December AND man all the polling stations to minimize as much as possible multiple voting and the zombie vote. I do not see these voices do either one. Fortunately it seems that the movement is starting to ebb as reality hits.
Another problem is coming from a few who decided now to criticize Capriles as the leader of the opposition. As if we had chance to pull one out of the hat to direct the campaign for next December... Certainly I never supported Capriles, only rallying him as the consensus leader. His 50% in April certainly give him the right to hold the helm until at least December 9. But some people seem to want faster exits to our crisis, or more intellectually pleasing ones such as this embarrassing tone deaf entry which proves that when you live for too long outside Venezuela......
Unfortunately the true problem is the loss of Globovision, the last network where albeit its limited national coverage the opposition could still make its points known. The new campaign is now run with a total governmental air waves hegemony where only snippets of the opposition campaign may be seen occasionally. The opposition is now forced to walk the walk and reply on Facebook and Twitter and web pages. We'll see how truly connected the country is.
September is coming. Now you have the scene as it is, before possible momentous changes start. We'll see.
Saturday, 24 August 2013
The Venezuelan dictatorship in action
Having made the case that Venezuela is now under a novel dictatorship form of government, there is nothing left for this blog but to illustrate our hypothesis with probationary evidence. In a single day, we got three to discuss.
The homes of the fatherland
Let's not get into the detail that the regime is breaking all electoral rules by launching strong its campaign for December municipal elections. Dictatorships follow the electoral flow chart they chose and change at will. Instead let's look at the message exposed today.
#ChavezLivesTheFatherlandContinues Let's go all to register and participate en the Network for Patriotic Homes, Bolivarian and Chavista to rule together.
In short it means that if you do not go an sign up your home in this new registry, then you are a traitor.
Translation: they certainly are not going to come and knock at my door. This is a measure to strike fear in popular districts where increasingly people are daring to vote against the regime. The published electoral results may be a manipulation but the regime knows the real numbers. In addition in popular districts where there is a certain flux of inhabitants, this creates a new up to date registry of voters, listing the many ways they can be threatened if they do not vote (by belonging to any of the various Misiones, or having their relatives in one of those). The way the state TV reports it includes a video where the ghost of Chavez floats over these Patriot Homes. Interestingly Diosdado Cabello was campaigning in Anzoategui, which in theory should be a lost cause for chavismo, with a surprising inclusive message of bringing solutions for all, regardless of their party affiliation......
Not only this is dictatorship, but it is also fascism.
Amuay revisited
You may remember the Amuay disaster of one year ago. In spite of all sorts of blockades set by the regime so we do not know what caused the accident, the opposition representatives at the National Assembly did try to conduct an investigation and got some results that they tried to deliver at Amuay Plant Management. Who refused to receive them, not even accepting the bound report. While PDVSA workers were conveniently set outside to heckle the representatives.
Well, at least they got a result. The regime decided suddenly that it will "soon" reveal the evidence that Amuay was an attack from the opposition, a sabotage to ruin the reëlection campaign of Chavez. Maduro, of course, just states that he has the evidence but he is unable even to give a hint. Nor, that we know of, is anyone already under arrest or something. Just like the myriad of assassination attempts against Chavez that have yet to yield an actual picture of the would be assassin, and even less of a trial......
Now, I am not going to put it past from some oppo loonies to set Amauy on fire. After all, next door in Colombia, the FARC is tired to blow up pipelines and electric transmission towers. So the inspiration would come directly from Maduro's pals in Colombia. However it is inexcusable that if the regime had any evidence of such a sabotage we are only told now, AFTER the opposition presented a serious paper on the matter, that the regime will not as a matter of principle even try to refute. Well, they cannot, but that is another story.
This is how a dictatorship replies to criticism, by counter attack in an outrageous manner, to drown the noise from the other side. And a little fascistic in the threats implied and vocabulary used.
Movie censorship
And to finish this on a lighter note of sorts. The latest state sponsored movie is about a moment in the life of Bolivar who is played by Roque Valero, one of these artists who after 14 years decided to come out for Chavez in last year campaign. The critic has not been good, but was not bad either. At any rate, there seems to have been a snafu in the distribution of the tracks and the regime has taken it as a personal offense, as censorship of its voice. This for a regime that has just closed down Globovision and does not allow a single opposition figure to be featured on any of the state media. Note the aggressive attack of Maduro
By the way, Maduro wants his followers to jump on Facebook and Twitter to harass the opposition participants there. Maybe I should expect more harassment? Kind of a form of censorship if you ask me. Do they read English?
The homes of the fatherland
Let's not get into the detail that the regime is breaking all electoral rules by launching strong its campaign for December municipal elections. Dictatorships follow the electoral flow chart they chose and change at will. Instead let's look at the message exposed today.
#ChávezVivelaPatriaSigue Vamos tod@s a inscribirnos y participar en la Red de HogaresPatriotas,Bolivarianos yChavistas para Gobernar Junt@s.
— Nicolás Maduro (@NicolasMaduro) August 24, 2013
#ChavezLivesTheFatherlandContinues Let's go all to register and participate en the Network for Patriotic Homes, Bolivarian and Chavista to rule together.
In short it means that if you do not go an sign up your home in this new registry, then you are a traitor.
Translation: they certainly are not going to come and knock at my door. This is a measure to strike fear in popular districts where increasingly people are daring to vote against the regime. The published electoral results may be a manipulation but the regime knows the real numbers. In addition in popular districts where there is a certain flux of inhabitants, this creates a new up to date registry of voters, listing the many ways they can be threatened if they do not vote (by belonging to any of the various Misiones, or having their relatives in one of those). The way the state TV reports it includes a video where the ghost of Chavez floats over these Patriot Homes. Interestingly Diosdado Cabello was campaigning in Anzoategui, which in theory should be a lost cause for chavismo, with a surprising inclusive message of bringing solutions for all, regardless of their party affiliation......
Not only this is dictatorship, but it is also fascism.
Amuay revisited
You may remember the Amuay disaster of one year ago. In spite of all sorts of blockades set by the regime so we do not know what caused the accident, the opposition representatives at the National Assembly did try to conduct an investigation and got some results that they tried to deliver at Amuay Plant Management. Who refused to receive them, not even accepting the bound report. While PDVSA workers were conveniently set outside to heckle the representatives.
Well, at least they got a result. The regime decided suddenly that it will "soon" reveal the evidence that Amuay was an attack from the opposition, a sabotage to ruin the reëlection campaign of Chavez. Maduro, of course, just states that he has the evidence but he is unable even to give a hint. Nor, that we know of, is anyone already under arrest or something. Just like the myriad of assassination attempts against Chavez that have yet to yield an actual picture of the would be assassin, and even less of a trial......
Now, I am not going to put it past from some oppo loonies to set Amauy on fire. After all, next door in Colombia, the FARC is tired to blow up pipelines and electric transmission towers. So the inspiration would come directly from Maduro's pals in Colombia. However it is inexcusable that if the regime had any evidence of such a sabotage we are only told now, AFTER the opposition presented a serious paper on the matter, that the regime will not as a matter of principle even try to refute. Well, they cannot, but that is another story.
This is how a dictatorship replies to criticism, by counter attack in an outrageous manner, to drown the noise from the other side. And a little fascistic in the threats implied and vocabulary used.
Movie censorship
And to finish this on a lighter note of sorts. The latest state sponsored movie is about a moment in the life of Bolivar who is played by Roque Valero, one of these artists who after 14 years decided to come out for Chavez in last year campaign. The critic has not been good, but was not bad either. At any rate, there seems to have been a snafu in the distribution of the tracks and the regime has taken it as a personal offense, as censorship of its voice. This for a regime that has just closed down Globovision and does not allow a single opposition figure to be featured on any of the state media. Note the aggressive attack of Maduro
"¿De quién es Cinex? Porque se niegan a pasar la película Bolívar. Hay que abrir una investigación porque la censura es delito en el país y quien comete censura lo tiene que pagar caro."Who is the owner of Cinex [theater franchise]. Why do they refuse to pass a film on Bolivar[?]. We need to open an investigation because censorship is a crime in this country and the one who commits censorship needs to pay big for it.This said of course with a total lack of self consciousness. On the fascist side, no?
By the way, Maduro wants his followers to jump on Facebook and Twitter to harass the opposition participants there. Maybe I should expect more harassment? Kind of a form of censorship if you ask me. Do they read English?
Monday, 19 August 2013
A XXIst century dictatorship primer
Even though for informed people the Venezuelan regime has become a symbol of utter corruption, immeasurable incompetence, sublime contempt for the rule of law and plasticity for human rights, you read here and there that we are a democracy. We cannot possibly be a dictatorship because people are happy and keep reëlecting the same folks letting hysterics dominate Twitter. What these people fail to notice is that the concept of dictatorship has evolved with the times. Now, in the earlier part of the XXI century, in an age of mass media and massive social media, the tools of dictatorship have had to evolve, even if old means are yet to be out of fashion as we see in Egypt these days.
To understand that "adaptation of dictatorship to new realities" let's start by remembering what are the core concepts of democracy and, as a consequence, what trumps a democracy and can thus represent the basic tools to sustain a dictatorship.
A democracy cannot be defined alone by elections, even if those are free and fair. In a complex, multiethnic, multicultural world, and dare I invent a word, multieconomical, we need to look beyond what were the democratic aspirations of the XIX century: right of vote for all, equal justice for all and for more forward looking societies like the US, equal opportunities for all. The aspirations of the XIX century and the birth of the welfare state have led to our current system where democracy also includes protection for minorities, guarantees that a political minority can become a political majority, rule of law though independent institutions implying stricter separation of powers. Not to enter into human rights which have expanded considerably from those of the XIX century which were basically limited to habeas corpus and freedoms of the press and beliefs.
This restructuring of democracy tenets have also implied the redefinition of power. All through the XXth century democracy has had to contend with that side of human nature that wishes to control everything. This made democracy to be seen for some as weak and incompetent creating a wish for a substantial chunk of the society that wants clear and direct answers. The enemy of democracy has thus been the will of small groups who invented crass appeal to the populace, or populism, to reach power. In their more extreme forms these people went easily over to fascism or communism, which are the negative picture of the democratic aspiration, totalitarianism.
Unfortunately at this vantage point it seems that the trend is for a victory of populism in its milder forms over sensible government though we should not give up quite yet. This has been made easier because mass media cannot resit to dabble in political influence, in all countries of the world. Exciting the masses is rather easy and a few good soundbites can influence an election more than electoral homework. But yet these media and international realities make an outright grab to power more difficult than it was. Absolute control is today nearly impossible unless it was established in the last century. Thus ambitious groups and individuals had to reshape their goals.
The only thing that, with some ease, can be more or less thoroughly controlled today is the income of the country. In an authoritarian regime this is a must because the state income is used by those in powers to play off one side of the country against the other one. Other forms of control then can follow. In a welfare state age and crass consumption sponsored by all types of media living off advertising, the power of the purse is more effective than the power of the weapons. True, the other tool of dictatorships, giving only to a few powers for abuse over their brethren still exists but runs into lots of problems in an age of human rights, no matter how many psychopaths a regime can draw. Disposable bribe money works better, violent repression is a last recourse. Although preparations for repression are made as diligently as they used to be made last century.
The trick for those craving absolute power is on how to reach absolute control over the state financial resources. The Venezuelan model is the first success story though one difficult to emulate unless you have a spigot of money like the one that exists underground in Venezuela. The model was implemented in stages so that not that many people objected to it at any given time, outside of the 2002 scare.
First, you sell the empty promise of a new constitution without describing what you will put in it. As such people project in a new Constitution any of their phantasms or needs to be fulfilled. In April 1999 only 10% voted NO to elect a constitutional assembly. Then, with the new constitution as an excuse you change the institutions of the state or at the very least exchange the people holding them for your cronies. This was strategically done in December 1999 when the transition commission between the two constitutions overextended its reach in removing all the members of the judicial system it did not like.
Once the judicial power has lost its independence it is just a matter of time in taking control of the rest of the state. This was done by 2004 when the opposition was left with a few town halls and two state houses. Then it becomes easy to manipulate financial arrangements to make sure only the regime can drain the bulk of resources and distribute them at will. Once this is achieved the regime is on its way to become an "electoral" dictatorship. It takes about half a decade to create a dependent population that is too afraid to vote against the regime least it risks to lose what is seen as its lone livelihood. This was achieved by 2006 when the charisma of the leader and the dependency on state giveaway programs ensured a solid electoral victory and the beginning of the other measures more in agreement with a traditional dictatorship, like restricting the freedom of expression, or using corruption to gain the willingness of supporters to start harassing opposition people, be them politicians or mere civilians that refuse to accept the new regime.
Today, certainly, we can access Internet, we can travel outside of the country at will but with significant difficulty, we can talk freely among friends to trash the regime, we can still get significant news in some newspapers. But that is pretty much it. For the rest we are in a dictatorship, a bona fide one even though the above hides it for the casual observer.
Let's list a few of the restrictions we suffer that do look like those of a more traditional dictatorship.
All of these items taken separately could make the case for a mere authoritarian regime. Taken together they surely indicate a dictatorship.
---------------------------------------------------------------
All of what I wrote above is documented in hundreds of posts that have been forming this blog since 2003. The path toward dictatorship was undertaken in 2004 with the apartheid political list by representative Tascon which created a class of sub-citizens, not to say traitors. In 2007 the regime suffered a setback, the last election where the opposition was still able to carry its message with some effectiveness. In 2010 the first massive electoral fraud was perpetrated, including an obscene gerrymandering that left an opposition with a majority of the vote with barely a little bit more than a third of legislative seats. Personally it was in 2010 when I started calling the regime a dictatorship. Final confirmation came, for those who still pretend otherwise, in the legal maneuvering required to violate the 1999 constitution and ensure that Maduro would be the heir of Chavez. Maduro is an illegitimate president that got its official mandate after a fraudulent election that the regime refused to audit, of course. The paradox is that Maduro is the front dictator of the country but he is not the one truly in charge. The real dictators are elsewhere to be found. But that is another story.
-------------------------------
Note
I would be remiss if I were not to mention the Venezuelan model elsewhere. The one that comes closest to the Venezuelan model is the Russia of Putin although they certainly were able to come up with the same considerations that drove chavismo to do the deed, under Cuban direction. Though Putin has been more careful at keeping appearances, so far. But the model is the same in that the regime bases its success on the spigot of cash it controls. Just as the US has financed Chavez, Europe has financed Putin.
Of the other countries that have tried to follow a Venezuelan model, only Ecuador has a small spigot of cash. If it has not become a dictator ship it is because Correa has been a better manager of the economy and has accepted that the US dollar remains the Ecuador currency. The other imitators, Argentina, Bolivia and Nicaragua are sui generis in their own with much lesser promising options if the Venezuelan cash were to stop sustaining their political corruption system. But there are other politicians that are dreaming of an improved Venezuelan system that are in the wings, in Chile, Peru, Honduras, etc....
To understand that "adaptation of dictatorship to new realities" let's start by remembering what are the core concepts of democracy and, as a consequence, what trumps a democracy and can thus represent the basic tools to sustain a dictatorship.
A democracy cannot be defined alone by elections, even if those are free and fair. In a complex, multiethnic, multicultural world, and dare I invent a word, multieconomical, we need to look beyond what were the democratic aspirations of the XIX century: right of vote for all, equal justice for all and for more forward looking societies like the US, equal opportunities for all. The aspirations of the XIX century and the birth of the welfare state have led to our current system where democracy also includes protection for minorities, guarantees that a political minority can become a political majority, rule of law though independent institutions implying stricter separation of powers. Not to enter into human rights which have expanded considerably from those of the XIX century which were basically limited to habeas corpus and freedoms of the press and beliefs.
This restructuring of democracy tenets have also implied the redefinition of power. All through the XXth century democracy has had to contend with that side of human nature that wishes to control everything. This made democracy to be seen for some as weak and incompetent creating a wish for a substantial chunk of the society that wants clear and direct answers. The enemy of democracy has thus been the will of small groups who invented crass appeal to the populace, or populism, to reach power. In their more extreme forms these people went easily over to fascism or communism, which are the negative picture of the democratic aspiration, totalitarianism.
Unfortunately at this vantage point it seems that the trend is for a victory of populism in its milder forms over sensible government though we should not give up quite yet. This has been made easier because mass media cannot resit to dabble in political influence, in all countries of the world. Exciting the masses is rather easy and a few good soundbites can influence an election more than electoral homework. But yet these media and international realities make an outright grab to power more difficult than it was. Absolute control is today nearly impossible unless it was established in the last century. Thus ambitious groups and individuals had to reshape their goals.
The only thing that, with some ease, can be more or less thoroughly controlled today is the income of the country. In an authoritarian regime this is a must because the state income is used by those in powers to play off one side of the country against the other one. Other forms of control then can follow. In a welfare state age and crass consumption sponsored by all types of media living off advertising, the power of the purse is more effective than the power of the weapons. True, the other tool of dictatorships, giving only to a few powers for abuse over their brethren still exists but runs into lots of problems in an age of human rights, no matter how many psychopaths a regime can draw. Disposable bribe money works better, violent repression is a last recourse. Although preparations for repression are made as diligently as they used to be made last century.
The trick for those craving absolute power is on how to reach absolute control over the state financial resources. The Venezuelan model is the first success story though one difficult to emulate unless you have a spigot of money like the one that exists underground in Venezuela. The model was implemented in stages so that not that many people objected to it at any given time, outside of the 2002 scare.
First, you sell the empty promise of a new constitution without describing what you will put in it. As such people project in a new Constitution any of their phantasms or needs to be fulfilled. In April 1999 only 10% voted NO to elect a constitutional assembly. Then, with the new constitution as an excuse you change the institutions of the state or at the very least exchange the people holding them for your cronies. This was strategically done in December 1999 when the transition commission between the two constitutions overextended its reach in removing all the members of the judicial system it did not like.
Once the judicial power has lost its independence it is just a matter of time in taking control of the rest of the state. This was done by 2004 when the opposition was left with a few town halls and two state houses. Then it becomes easy to manipulate financial arrangements to make sure only the regime can drain the bulk of resources and distribute them at will. Once this is achieved the regime is on its way to become an "electoral" dictatorship. It takes about half a decade to create a dependent population that is too afraid to vote against the regime least it risks to lose what is seen as its lone livelihood. This was achieved by 2006 when the charisma of the leader and the dependency on state giveaway programs ensured a solid electoral victory and the beginning of the other measures more in agreement with a traditional dictatorship, like restricting the freedom of expression, or using corruption to gain the willingness of supporters to start harassing opposition people, be them politicians or mere civilians that refuse to accept the new regime.
Today, certainly, we can access Internet, we can travel outside of the country at will but with significant difficulty, we can talk freely among friends to trash the regime, we can still get significant news in some newspapers. But that is pretty much it. For the rest we are in a dictatorship, a bona fide one even though the above hides it for the casual observer.
Let's list a few of the restrictions we suffer that do look like those of a more traditional dictatorship.
- As of this week there is basically nothing critical of the regime on TV. And on radio only in some cities. Newspapers and media in general practice a significant amount of self censorship and some news only appear in the Internet. Yes, you can still find criticism but now you must work for it, the masses that satisfy themselves on TV do not get much.
- Nobody remembers the last time the state lost a case in the High Court of Venezuela. Suing the state is a waste of time and money unless you need to do so before you can be allowed to reach for international help. Also, winning a case in court against a friend of the regime is an uphill and very expensive battle. Expensive because in the end the winner of the trial is the one that bribes the highest.
- Your property is not your property anymore. Once the state decides to expropriate you you have no recourse, your compensation is dictated by the state, not by an independent third party. And that compensation will be payed by the state whenever it pleases it.
- You cannot use your property at will. Some items now can be sold or rented only after the state consents, after deciding on the price. Your access to foreign currency is severely restricted, and only if you travel.
- You cannot manage your business as you see fit. Not only heavy regulations make it difficult to work but they stimulate extortion from abusive state inspectors. Worse, you cannot let the market decide your selling prices; and in increasing cases you cannot sell it where you want to whom you want even at fixed prices.
- For those who must deal regularly with the authorities, roughly half of the time the person that you need to reach, the one with real authority in charge, is military personnel. A large amount of governors and ministers come from the army.
- Personality cult is for all to see. Be it the one for Chavez still going on, but there is also an incipient propaganda for Maduro.
- Human and civil rights are trampled for some groups. There are political prisoners, a few but mistreated notoriously to set an example. The elected opposition representatives in Parliament are beaten up and insulted as a matter of fact.
- Corruption is eating up the country. You need to pay something for almost anything important you need to get done. Obtaining loans from state banks, any business with the state, has a a fixed percentile rate of the deal to be given to the one who signs it. In cash, no trail.
- Political segregation is the norm since the Tascon list was set in 2004. Many services now only reach followers of the regime, though badly. Obtaining a public job, a subsidized housing, a scholarship, is obtained only after pledging allegiance to the regime.
- And to close a list that can still go on, elections are neither free nor fair anymore. There is clear electoral fraud patterns that are now in the public domain. It starts with the extreme unfairness of an election where the opposition is not allowed to finance itself or communicate its program against a regime that uses all the resources of the state and the media to promote its cause and blackmail voters. And it ends with the dead voting and the end of secret voting.
All of these items taken separately could make the case for a mere authoritarian regime. Taken together they surely indicate a dictatorship.
---------------------------------------------------------------
All of what I wrote above is documented in hundreds of posts that have been forming this blog since 2003. The path toward dictatorship was undertaken in 2004 with the apartheid political list by representative Tascon which created a class of sub-citizens, not to say traitors. In 2007 the regime suffered a setback, the last election where the opposition was still able to carry its message with some effectiveness. In 2010 the first massive electoral fraud was perpetrated, including an obscene gerrymandering that left an opposition with a majority of the vote with barely a little bit more than a third of legislative seats. Personally it was in 2010 when I started calling the regime a dictatorship. Final confirmation came, for those who still pretend otherwise, in the legal maneuvering required to violate the 1999 constitution and ensure that Maduro would be the heir of Chavez. Maduro is an illegitimate president that got its official mandate after a fraudulent election that the regime refused to audit, of course. The paradox is that Maduro is the front dictator of the country but he is not the one truly in charge. The real dictators are elsewhere to be found. But that is another story.
-------------------------------
Note
I would be remiss if I were not to mention the Venezuelan model elsewhere. The one that comes closest to the Venezuelan model is the Russia of Putin although they certainly were able to come up with the same considerations that drove chavismo to do the deed, under Cuban direction. Though Putin has been more careful at keeping appearances, so far. But the model is the same in that the regime bases its success on the spigot of cash it controls. Just as the US has financed Chavez, Europe has financed Putin.
Of the other countries that have tried to follow a Venezuelan model, only Ecuador has a small spigot of cash. If it has not become a dictator ship it is because Correa has been a better manager of the economy and has accepted that the US dollar remains the Ecuador currency. The other imitators, Argentina, Bolivia and Nicaragua are sui generis in their own with much lesser promising options if the Venezuelan cash were to stop sustaining their political corruption system. But there are other politicians that are dreaming of an improved Venezuelan system that are in the wings, in Chile, Peru, Honduras, etc....
Wednesday, 7 August 2013
As expected, the Venezuelan high court, TSJ, confirms that Venezuela is officially a dictatorship
UPDATED. We just learned that the high court of Venezuela, TSJ, has decided UNANIMOUSLY that the electoral challenges that the opposition sent are not receivable.
There is no surprise there, though I would have expected that at least one justice would have dissented, you know, to save appearances. But the regime is now in full dictatorship mode and the time for such subtleties is past. Long past if you ask me. Also the reasons for the TSJ to discard the arguments are of no interest. It is proven already that people who were dead voted and that that many had to vote under supervision. This is public knowledge, does not require any court verdict besides the one annulling the vote in, at the very least, those centers where such fraud took place. What the TSJ will write are mere manipulations of the law, which they have been doing at a hectic pace since Chavez got sick to ensure that the regime retains power.
As a side comment, the timing is mildly interesting. Capriles announced yesterday that the opposition was tired of waiting for the TSJ and was going to go international courts with the case. Either he had been tipped about the soon to come expected adverse result, or the TSJ decided a preventive move to cow the opposition down, or at least downgrade the charge of denial of justice. A decision may be fair or not, but a decision at least proves that the judicial system took action......
As far as I am concerned it does not change anything. I am tired of repeating that Venezuela is a dictatorship, officially, since late 2010. Maybe now more will see my point where it matters.
PS: I will write more on this, of course. But where is the rush? We did not scream our lungs out in April, why rush now.
-----------------
UPDATE
As expected the TSJ dismissal is lame. They claim that 1) that the details were not precise (and the videos? and the lists of dead people voting?) and 2) the challenge had for objective to discredit the institutions more than challenging the results. Duh! Besides that the institutions are already quite discredited by themselves, it reinforces the natural tendency of a dictatorship: paranoia.
What to do now? Maybe I should buy a PowerBall ticket and bail out of Dodge...
There is no surprise there, though I would have expected that at least one justice would have dissented, you know, to save appearances. But the regime is now in full dictatorship mode and the time for such subtleties is past. Long past if you ask me. Also the reasons for the TSJ to discard the arguments are of no interest. It is proven already that people who were dead voted and that that many had to vote under supervision. This is public knowledge, does not require any court verdict besides the one annulling the vote in, at the very least, those centers where such fraud took place. What the TSJ will write are mere manipulations of the law, which they have been doing at a hectic pace since Chavez got sick to ensure that the regime retains power.
As a side comment, the timing is mildly interesting. Capriles announced yesterday that the opposition was tired of waiting for the TSJ and was going to go international courts with the case. Either he had been tipped about the soon to come expected adverse result, or the TSJ decided a preventive move to cow the opposition down, or at least downgrade the charge of denial of justice. A decision may be fair or not, but a decision at least proves that the judicial system took action......
As far as I am concerned it does not change anything. I am tired of repeating that Venezuela is a dictatorship, officially, since late 2010. Maybe now more will see my point where it matters.
PS: I will write more on this, of course. But where is the rush? We did not scream our lungs out in April, why rush now.
-----------------
UPDATE
As expected the TSJ dismissal is lame. They claim that 1) that the details were not precise (and the videos? and the lists of dead people voting?) and 2) the challenge had for objective to discredit the institutions more than challenging the results. Duh! Besides that the institutions are already quite discredited by themselves, it reinforces the natural tendency of a dictatorship: paranoia.
What to do now? Maybe I should buy a PowerBall ticket and bail out of Dodge...
Wednesday, 31 July 2013
The dictatorship post Mardo view in Caracas
So, what are we to do with the new aggression against parliamentary democracy yesterday in Caracas?
Nothing much, unfortunately.
I am in the obligation, to start this post, of reminding the reader that as far as this blogger is concerned we are in a de facto dictatorship since the Fall of 2010 (read the posts of December 2010). Then the regime used the votes of an outgoing assembly, elected with 80+% abstention to castrate the ALREADY elected new assembly. That this came to pass and that for all practical purposes nothing came of it, that the opposition in the end meekly took their seat, is one of the reasons of all that came later. And what came later is not pretty: fraud around Chavez disease, refusal to follow the constitutional path to renew the bodies of state, electoral fraud for the reelection of Chavez in 2012, judicial coup at the death of Chavez to ensure that Maduro reached power, naked electoral fraud in April 2013 to seat Maduro, plus an assortment of other disgraceful moments such as the beating up of representatives in the national assembly, the further silencing of free media, waves of expropriation followed by waves of corruption, etc, etc..... Again, just the collection of December 2010 is enough to document the whole disaster.
And some people still try to pretend that we are in a "special" type of authoritarian democracy, missing completely how the nature of power has shifted in the XXI century and how the parameters of democracy defining have also shifted. But let's not digress...
The opposition then decided to put all of its eggs in the 2012 election basket, betting that either Chavez will die before the election or that they could actually beat him, even though it was patently clear that the 2012 election was going to be even less democratic than the 2006 vote, if possible. We all know how that went. Certainly, the treachery of the regime was not able to hid the progress of the opposition and this pushed the regime to steal outright the election in April 2013, tolerated by Latin America for reasons that they will regret someday.
A regime that has forfeited the pseudo democratic way that Chavez maintained until his referendum defeat of 2007 and that has crossed the red line of presidential election steal, is not going to stop anymore. That means, among its other obligations to keep power, that the National Assembly has to be neutered completely, recovering by all means a solid 66% majority by expelling the opposition representatives that are not willing to bend over, take bribes, switch sides or at least shut up. The regime has too much to lose, too many of its stars will find their way to jail the day the regime falls.
That serious pollsters are unanimous in saying that the opposition is ahead in polls today, not by much but by a significant number, not only gives further credence to the fraud accusation of last April, but sends the regime into panic. Hence the current increase in repression where the Mardo thing yesterday is just one of its manifestation, though of the gravest nature since it means the regime is about to expel from the National Assembly as many representatives as it wishes to do.
It is not the time to bemoan the errors that the opposition made, of which I could put dozens of links from this blog. What is done is done and the opposition politicians are paying the price themselves finally, not only us on foot. The question is what to do.
I think that waiting for the municipal elections of December is futile: the regime will simply not recognize those results, already promoting the "comunas" which went dormant last December when the shocked country allowed an undeserved Governor election victory for the regime. With the reactivation of the comunas law it will not matter if the opposition has a landslide victory ion December 8: within months the "comunas" will have chopped off the opposition districts.
No, the time has come to a more confrontational approach, preferably one that makes UNASUR and the OAS assume their responsibilities. Next Saturday finally the opposition has called for its first large scale protest since April 14. We shall see.
Nothing much, unfortunately.
I am in the obligation, to start this post, of reminding the reader that as far as this blogger is concerned we are in a de facto dictatorship since the Fall of 2010 (read the posts of December 2010). Then the regime used the votes of an outgoing assembly, elected with 80+% abstention to castrate the ALREADY elected new assembly. That this came to pass and that for all practical purposes nothing came of it, that the opposition in the end meekly took their seat, is one of the reasons of all that came later. And what came later is not pretty: fraud around Chavez disease, refusal to follow the constitutional path to renew the bodies of state, electoral fraud for the reelection of Chavez in 2012, judicial coup at the death of Chavez to ensure that Maduro reached power, naked electoral fraud in April 2013 to seat Maduro, plus an assortment of other disgraceful moments such as the beating up of representatives in the national assembly, the further silencing of free media, waves of expropriation followed by waves of corruption, etc, etc..... Again, just the collection of December 2010 is enough to document the whole disaster.
And some people still try to pretend that we are in a "special" type of authoritarian democracy, missing completely how the nature of power has shifted in the XXI century and how the parameters of democracy defining have also shifted. But let's not digress...
The opposition then decided to put all of its eggs in the 2012 election basket, betting that either Chavez will die before the election or that they could actually beat him, even though it was patently clear that the 2012 election was going to be even less democratic than the 2006 vote, if possible. We all know how that went. Certainly, the treachery of the regime was not able to hid the progress of the opposition and this pushed the regime to steal outright the election in April 2013, tolerated by Latin America for reasons that they will regret someday.
A regime that has forfeited the pseudo democratic way that Chavez maintained until his referendum defeat of 2007 and that has crossed the red line of presidential election steal, is not going to stop anymore. That means, among its other obligations to keep power, that the National Assembly has to be neutered completely, recovering by all means a solid 66% majority by expelling the opposition representatives that are not willing to bend over, take bribes, switch sides or at least shut up. The regime has too much to lose, too many of its stars will find their way to jail the day the regime falls.
That serious pollsters are unanimous in saying that the opposition is ahead in polls today, not by much but by a significant number, not only gives further credence to the fraud accusation of last April, but sends the regime into panic. Hence the current increase in repression where the Mardo thing yesterday is just one of its manifestation, though of the gravest nature since it means the regime is about to expel from the National Assembly as many representatives as it wishes to do.
It is not the time to bemoan the errors that the opposition made, of which I could put dozens of links from this blog. What is done is done and the opposition politicians are paying the price themselves finally, not only us on foot. The question is what to do.
I think that waiting for the municipal elections of December is futile: the regime will simply not recognize those results, already promoting the "comunas" which went dormant last December when the shocked country allowed an undeserved Governor election victory for the regime. With the reactivation of the comunas law it will not matter if the opposition has a landslide victory ion December 8: within months the "comunas" will have chopped off the opposition districts.
No, the time has come to a more confrontational approach, preferably one that makes UNASUR and the OAS assume their responsibilities. Next Saturday finally the opposition has called for its first large scale protest since April 14. We shall see.
Sunday, 7 July 2013
Snowed in Caracas
I hope you will forgive me the bad pun of the title but this is a little bit the feel these days. Under the blizzard of news, most more ridiculous than the preceding one, I feel like I am trapped, unable to write about anything. Where should I start? The Evo non event? That we have no money to import grains but the regime finds money to import chicken? That the Nazional Guard made a "mistake" killing a mother, one her daughter and sending the two other daughters to the hospital? That no one seems to care about these issues, many more worried about the latest regime announcement that we may get an extra 3000 USD for our trips, albeit at a much higher value than the 6,3 current official exchange?
My level of despondency about the country seems to be reaching new marks.....
The fact of the matter is that I have been this week in Caracas and busy enough not to be able to sort thoughts before hitting the keyboard. Thus, I might as well start with Evo excellent adventure.
The only thing we know for sure is that the guy, coming back from Russia, was forced into an unscheduled stop in Vienna that lasted much too long considering the official excuses and motives. The man was in Moscow for a summit on world gas exporters because contrary to Venezuela that had Maduro attending and fussing, Bolivia DOES export gas. Then there was a rumor that Evo would smuggle spy Snowden to Bolivia and, I suppose, an international anti-something was activated, probably automatically through an idiot bureaucrat. As a result the air space of France, Italy, Spain and Portugal were closed to Evo's plane. That these countries happened to be in the flight path of Evo was after all an accident: the same thing may have happened if Evo had decided to go back to Bolivia via Turkey, through Africa. Nobody seems to be mentioning that. Nor that the Evo plane had a mechanical problem explaining better the over long stay in Vienna when in a couple of hours at most all restrictions would have been lifted and the plane refueled. After all, Evo did refuel later in the Canary islands which last I heard were still part of Spain.
Now, before I continue let me state that the European countries involved made an idiotic mistake as everyone would have been served better with Snowden going to rot in La Paz, eating chuños and cruising for pole dancing cholitas. That would have taught him a lesson right there. Which brings me to my opinion on Snowden: he is a jerk. A real whistle blower faces the consequences of his actions and do not run to the enemy. And furthermore, he does not contemplate seeking asylum in countries that have LESS privacy rights, LESS freedom of the press and LESS freedom of information than the country he running away from. His cause has a value, he has none.
This being said we were thus brought to the shameful spectacle of UNASUR rallying (not all apparently) around the slight made to Evo. Storming with harsh words was Maduro against Spain. Curiously this one said little against the other three, which coincidentally received him in his post election tour seeking outside the legitimacy refused inside Venezuela. And thus we got a double display of hypocrisy from UNASUR, selective in its condemnation of what is after all a fortuitous incident while sweeping under the rug real problems such as the electoral fraud in Venezuela. Definitely UNASUR is a crock of s**t.
This insult to the intelligence of a Venezuelan blogger would have been enough for a week, but alas, it would not be the lone one. At work I was told that all the plans of the poultry sector made with the regime came down crashing. The association had promised a steep increase in chicken and egg production provided the regime allowed for the imports of raw materials needed. As usual, political expediency and corruption took the day and the regime decided to restart imports of chicken from Brazil, more expensive, more subject to corrupt handling. We should always keep in mind that the only way el pueblo knows its food comes from the regime is by giving it directly to el pueblo, in red shirted Chavez decorated fairs, with imported chicken even if this one is of lesser quality than the locally produced one. The lessons from Chavez and the Cubans have been well learned even if this may put the chicken industry of Venezuela (44kg per capita) on the verge of bankruptcy while the regime will NEVER be able to import and distribute the 44 per capita required. In 1998 Venezuela was self sufficient and the way we go if we keep producing 50% of our needs in a couple of years we will be lucky, when not only we could produce everything needed, but export as we used to do.
There was also other stuff such as the wimpy to cowardly report of the Carter Center; or the big fuss about having an admiral female defense minister when in Chile the bridge has been crossed long ago all the way to the presidency and by a civilian woman. Amen of the lacerating question that why the f**k Venezuela has way more admirals vice-admirals and counter-admirals than actual serviceable ship in the pretend fleet.
To finish this outrageous post I will refer to the latest state crime. Apparently in Falcon state a detachment of the Nazional Guard confused two cars and by "mistake" shot 50 salvos in a small family car, killing the mother, one of her daughters, sending one critical to the hospital and leaving the last one with a life psycho trauma at the very least. That the regime sent to preventive jail the officers in charge is of little comfort. Too many army personnel involved in such type of offenses have served perfunctory sentences. I am willing to bet that those involved in the crime will do no more than a couple of years in jail.
The source of all this mess is that the regime has been not only unable but unwilling to set a civilian security plan. When el pueblo complains too loudly and elections approach the solution is to send armed forces to the streets. Unfortunately they are woefully untrained for such tasks; though we hear that they are well trained to control harbor and commerce corruption. Having a professional police force trained to avoid such disasters require investment in personnel, a functional judicial system, jails, weapons and means, intelligence, etc, etc... Here, the only intelligence that matters for the regime is the one used to spy on its opposition.
Now, tell me that all that I wrote above is not what you's expect to see in a dictatorship, a military dictatorship were the civilian president is a pasty/patsy.
My level of despondency about the country seems to be reaching new marks.....
The fact of the matter is that I have been this week in Caracas and busy enough not to be able to sort thoughts before hitting the keyboard. Thus, I might as well start with Evo excellent adventure.
The only thing we know for sure is that the guy, coming back from Russia, was forced into an unscheduled stop in Vienna that lasted much too long considering the official excuses and motives. The man was in Moscow for a summit on world gas exporters because contrary to Venezuela that had Maduro attending and fussing, Bolivia DOES export gas. Then there was a rumor that Evo would smuggle spy Snowden to Bolivia and, I suppose, an international anti-something was activated, probably automatically through an idiot bureaucrat. As a result the air space of France, Italy, Spain and Portugal were closed to Evo's plane. That these countries happened to be in the flight path of Evo was after all an accident: the same thing may have happened if Evo had decided to go back to Bolivia via Turkey, through Africa. Nobody seems to be mentioning that. Nor that the Evo plane had a mechanical problem explaining better the over long stay in Vienna when in a couple of hours at most all restrictions would have been lifted and the plane refueled. After all, Evo did refuel later in the Canary islands which last I heard were still part of Spain.
Now, before I continue let me state that the European countries involved made an idiotic mistake as everyone would have been served better with Snowden going to rot in La Paz, eating chuños and cruising for pole dancing cholitas. That would have taught him a lesson right there. Which brings me to my opinion on Snowden: he is a jerk. A real whistle blower faces the consequences of his actions and do not run to the enemy. And furthermore, he does not contemplate seeking asylum in countries that have LESS privacy rights, LESS freedom of the press and LESS freedom of information than the country he running away from. His cause has a value, he has none.
This being said we were thus brought to the shameful spectacle of UNASUR rallying (not all apparently) around the slight made to Evo. Storming with harsh words was Maduro against Spain. Curiously this one said little against the other three, which coincidentally received him in his post election tour seeking outside the legitimacy refused inside Venezuela. And thus we got a double display of hypocrisy from UNASUR, selective in its condemnation of what is after all a fortuitous incident while sweeping under the rug real problems such as the electoral fraud in Venezuela. Definitely UNASUR is a crock of s**t.
This insult to the intelligence of a Venezuelan blogger would have been enough for a week, but alas, it would not be the lone one. At work I was told that all the plans of the poultry sector made with the regime came down crashing. The association had promised a steep increase in chicken and egg production provided the regime allowed for the imports of raw materials needed. As usual, political expediency and corruption took the day and the regime decided to restart imports of chicken from Brazil, more expensive, more subject to corrupt handling. We should always keep in mind that the only way el pueblo knows its food comes from the regime is by giving it directly to el pueblo, in red shirted Chavez decorated fairs, with imported chicken even if this one is of lesser quality than the locally produced one. The lessons from Chavez and the Cubans have been well learned even if this may put the chicken industry of Venezuela (44kg per capita) on the verge of bankruptcy while the regime will NEVER be able to import and distribute the 44 per capita required. In 1998 Venezuela was self sufficient and the way we go if we keep producing 50% of our needs in a couple of years we will be lucky, when not only we could produce everything needed, but export as we used to do.
There was also other stuff such as the wimpy to cowardly report of the Carter Center; or the big fuss about having an admiral female defense minister when in Chile the bridge has been crossed long ago all the way to the presidency and by a civilian woman. Amen of the lacerating question that why the f**k Venezuela has way more admirals vice-admirals and counter-admirals than actual serviceable ship in the pretend fleet.
To finish this outrageous post I will refer to the latest state crime. Apparently in Falcon state a detachment of the Nazional Guard confused two cars and by "mistake" shot 50 salvos in a small family car, killing the mother, one of her daughters, sending one critical to the hospital and leaving the last one with a life psycho trauma at the very least. That the regime sent to preventive jail the officers in charge is of little comfort. Too many army personnel involved in such type of offenses have served perfunctory sentences. I am willing to bet that those involved in the crime will do no more than a couple of years in jail.
The source of all this mess is that the regime has been not only unable but unwilling to set a civilian security plan. When el pueblo complains too loudly and elections approach the solution is to send armed forces to the streets. Unfortunately they are woefully untrained for such tasks; though we hear that they are well trained to control harbor and commerce corruption. Having a professional police force trained to avoid such disasters require investment in personnel, a functional judicial system, jails, weapons and means, intelligence, etc, etc... Here, the only intelligence that matters for the regime is the one used to spy on its opposition.
Now, tell me that all that I wrote above is not what you's expect to see in a dictatorship, a military dictatorship were the civilian president is a pasty/patsy.
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