Deliberate chaos: the first post modern cashless society. Not!

There are so many things that need to be discussed but my lifestyle, so to speak, forbids me to find the time for the blog. Yet tonight I must write to describe what is probably the most unjust, craziest, measure the regime has taken to date. And they did take a lot of those in the past.  But this one will hurt so many poor people that the mind reels at the idea on how a regime intentionally for the people has become now a regime against the people.

Today's bomb shell is the demonetization of the 100 tender in Venezuela.  Why, oh why?

The governor of Aragua, famed drug trafficker suspect cum links to Hezbollah and what not says it is a conspiracy from the US treasury to steal all of our 100 Bs, bills to provoke economic chaos.

Presidente @NicolasMaduro denuncia operación mafiosa dirigida por el departamento del tesoro de EEUU para robarnos los billetes de 100bs.

— Tareck El Aissami (@TareckPSUV) 11 de diciembre de 2016

I, for one, think that the US has much easier ways to achieve this. Actually, the US does not need to do anything, just sitting and watching is enough to implode the regime.

This being said, it is quite possible that there are hoards of 100 bills here and there. After all, not all drug traffic receipts can be stored in USD crisp greenbacks. Black market also takes its share of the 100 notes.  But in both cases any hoarding is temporal: drug traffickers, black marketers and Colombian mafias are business people, admittedly in their own sick way. For them it makes no sense to hoard a currency that loses a couple of  %  value points A DAY!

And then there is that:

Remember the $100s of millions #Venezuela spent importing 100-bolo bills? They're all being taken outa circulation. https://t.co/0p1Ji4xUHp

— Kejal પ્રવીણ Vyas (@kejalvyas) 11 de diciembre de 2016

With the amounts of bills the regime has printed how many tons of paper money do you need to hoard to shoot a hit at the Venezuelan economy?  Corruption and mafia traffic cannot be an excuse. Unless....  this is being used for some inside chavismo to hit others inside chavismo since chavismo is by itself now no more than a mafia.

Since there is no logical explanation and that the truth will eventually emerge, let's focus on the consequences, dires according to serious economists already on record.

As of tomorrow and as long as the replacing currency is not provided these are the things that will be very difficult to do, because there is not enough low denomination bills (2, 5, 10, 20 and 50 which itself is worth barely a penny) to pay for routine cash stuff. You will need to carry wads of bills, if you can find them, for the following:

• Gas for your car, newspaper, candies, anything that is not attached to a ATM or cash point or whatever accepts your debit card (never mind that these devices have been collapsing recently due to the lack of paper money, by the way).
• Services like the grocery bag boy, your cleaning lady, parking, small tips, etc. are not possible as of tomorrow. Note that the recipients of these cash payments are in the lower economical ranks of the population and are taking a direct hit in their ability to purchase their food....
• You cannot buy in the informal market food items that you cannot buy at the store because either it is out of such sundries, or you were at work and could not take the time for the 1 to 2 hours requirement of standing on line at the grocery store. "bachaqueros" or small time black marketeers sell for cash.
• Never mind that the re-sellers, who make a living out of it, will not be making a living. They will simply hoard whatever they have until the new banknotes arrive. More scarcity, and of course higher prices to compensate their losses when they start selling again.
• You cannot buy bread if you do not have an ATM card, for whatever reason you do not have it. Then again bread is getting scarce these days so the problem may actually be worse than the lack of cash.
• Some businesses will take a direct hit, the more so we are in  the holidays season. Folks like the newsstand guy will see sales near zero for days.
• Whole classes of people will be affected and stand to lose money outright. The most vulnerable are retirees that only hold a savings account and who work on cash withdrawals from the bank. Many do not have or cannot operate or are afraid of debit cards that in some case only work for their bank ATM machines I understand (mine works for all but I understand that this is not the case for everyone). 
• Never mind the ill informed that will not think about exchanging their 100 bills on time. Outright robbery by the state out of the most vulnerable people.
• Purchasing cheap medicine will become difficult for many people.
• Etc. you get the picture.

In short, the measure to suppress the 100 bill without a mechanism for speedy exchange in an impossible to fulfill timetable is, well, a truly inhumane measure, a gross attack on the human rights of the Venezuelan people. Of course, boligarchs may be somewhat inconvenienced but not affected. El Pueblo? Fuck El Pueblo!

Yours truly is not one for conspiracy theories, but I am starting to think that maybe the regime is seeding chaos on purpose. Let's count: the killing of the recall election, the killing of the dialogue, the inability to replenish shelves for the holiday season, the removal of cash from the hand of people, etc....  The combination of all of this is already turning the country into an administrative chaos. Can this be truly done on purpose? After all chaos is a good excuse for people not to talk about the real issues, and then if they do talk about that chaos may justify repression.

48 hours of dialogue and it ain´t looking good. Unless...

I am not opposed to political dialogue. It has proven its worth through history. It could, on paper, be a good thing for Venezuela. I do not think it is because in historical dialogues either side had something to lose and did not want to lose it all. Here chavismo is of the scorched earth orthodoxy and they prefer to bring everything down before surrendering any piece of power. Reasons are multiple, from the knowledge of many of them ending up in jail were the regime to collapse to simply the castroite brain washing of a particularly virulent totalitarian nature, of tyrants long used to living out of thin air in a island cum concentration camp system.

In short, I believe in dialogue when there is the knowledge that both sides have something to lose or win, and when there is a dutiful respect on the symbols attached to such difficult endeavor. Visibly the first criteria is not met here, and the second criteria, on symbolism, was f....d up from the start as I reported Sunday night. Thus let's see what the first 48 hours have brought.

First, the division of the opposition that existed all along became quite obvious. Clearly the fear of the regime was a thin glue that is meting fast as the regime pretends to dole out some goodies to those behaving nice (I am looking at you, UNT, who had the chutzpah to send totally discredited Timoteo Zambrano to the dialogue table!). Certainly Maduro wasted no time in exploiting the opening and tonight went on attacking and demanding jail against the remaining leadership of Voluntad Polar. For good measure he also called Capriles a drug addict. I suppose it takes one to know one, but I digress. I have put the infamous video of Maduro tonight at the end of this entry if someone has the stomach for it. We must note that Chuo Torrealba came strongly to defend the opposition union and Voluntad Popular, but I am waiting for UNT to do the same.

More worrisome is the reaction of the opposition followers where we find a HUUGGEE chunk so outraged by sitting down for a dialogue, any dialogue that it has sent into frenzy the keyboard warriors insulting Capriles, Torrealba et all in ways that remind me of chavista bots. But again I digress. The point is that the clumsy management of the dialogue, to qualify it generously as clumsy, is exacting quite a toll inside the opposition ranks. Note: a lot of those twitter/key board warriors are not going to lead open shirted, chest upfront, the march on Miraflores. But again, I digress, apologies.

Even though that negative mood was detectable already Monday the opposition today in the National Assembly called away two of its top anti regime agenda points: the trial against Maduro and the said march on Miraflores. There are merits for that: after all why would you march to overthrow a regime if you are sitting down talking to them? But maybe you could have prepared public opinion as early as yesterday. No?

So the regime can score so far the following: no recall election this year; the apparent blow out of the opposition; no trial for Maduro; no march on Miraflores; great photo ops for Maduro; a hapless if not outwardly complicit Vatican, US et al. Note that Thomas Shannon from State made a surprise visit today, as usual with no comments, and probably as usual with a bad outcome in the following days. When Shannon deals with Venezuela I start shivering in fear even if it is not Halloween. True, technically all the opposition initiatives are on the freeze until November 12 when it could all start again. But does anyone think that the unity of purpose will be recovered by then? Not me.

Since this is a dialogue surely the regime made a concession somewhere. A few political prisoners were released. 5 I think, it is not clear. And not the most notorious ones, And a few dozens were incarcerated in the preceding days anyway. So, Castro style, any release is always compensated for a new jailing, a constant prison population being a healthy tool to impress the populace. Note two interesting details: no Voluntad Popular prisoner released, while all the releases were done without judicial action proving that those unfortunate souls were mere hostages to the regime, jailed because I said so, released because I got bored with them (and quite frankly in the XXI century I cannot get away as easily with murder as any dictator could in the past century).

So far so bad.  Unless, my wild hope, it is all because the opposition inner sanctum knows something we do not know, something that it cannot say.  Maybe Maduro is about to resign?  Maybe his military are going to depose him? Maybe the inner sanctum was told to wait a couple of weeks more and all would be fine and dandy? Maybe they were told that as soon as the US election is settled Obama will send a gazillion marines, the exact number depending on the number of votes Hillary gets?

This late in the game outside UNT I do not think that any opposition leader could have been bought. There are in for the fight even though differences exist. So clearly there must be a reason, a positive reason why reasonable folks like Ramos Allup, Borges, Torrealba have swallowed hard in the past two days to sit down and call a two weeks truce. Heck, one can even hope that the "division" with Voluntad is a show to distract chavismo.

But I doubt it. I hope to be proven wrong. Give me some sign MUD!

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Discurso de odio. En plena accion. Deshumanizando al "enemigo"...vieja receta cubana. Lo grave es q rompe reglas acordadas entre las partes pic.twitter.com/koBB4JZrfR

— Rocío San Miguel (@rociosanmiguel) 2 de noviembre de 2016

So? Can we all agree on the D word?

This is kind of a melancholy post. For years now I have been calling this a dictatorship. It took sometime to start seeing it expressed in the foreign press. And even as I type there are some in Venezuela or overseas (I am looking at you, Zapatero just for today's denialist) that still refuse to use the D word, expecting who knows what leniency from who knows where.


For me the D word applies since Chavez closed Radio Caracas in 2007. Or if you want a more material date you can use early 2013 when the constitutional coup of the moment allowed Maduro to become Chavez successor. And many other moments you may prefer. It really does not matter much, the dictatorial nature of the regime has been obvious from the start, from the very first social program of Chavez "Plan Bolivar 2000" that established the Venezuelan army as a discretionary manager of public money, and thus corruption.

I remember it all. Try me.

This year the dictatorship has been forced to become more frontal, more classical. Until this year the excuse that Venezuela was an autocratic regime and not a dictatorship was that the opposition did manage some electoral victories, that there were still an opposition paper here and there, albeit on trial. Etc. But all those were mere excuses. For the left there was no way that the beloved populist could have generated such a monstrously corrupt and inefficient system.  For the right it was that declaring Venezuela to be a dictatorship would mean taking action for which democrats seem to have lost the taste for, and for quite a while now. The last outrage and successful international take, if I remember well, was against Fujimori who in my book is not any worse than Chavez, and certainly less calamitous for the general welfare of the people. Honduras and Paraguay were mere side shows where the changes eventually prevailed because, well, these changes had a true legal foundation.

But never was Chavez to be sternly criticized until Argentina's Macri made it to office. And yet, with more bark than bite so far.

But now things have become unacceptable and Venezuela is preparing to be suspended from Mercosur in a little bit more than a month while the OAS may suddenly decided to make a concrete Democratic Chart application. Only Erdogan receives Maduro.

Since last December the regime has proceded to the following:
*Using the judicial power to block almost all actions from the National Assembly
*Rule through a state of emergency system bypassing any legal control
*Go through a wave of arrestations and creation of political prisoners without any legal supervision, with "evidence" planted directly by the people performing the arrest
*Sue the last two remaining national daily papers
*Block any control activity that the National Assembly has in the constitution
*Suspend any election, going as far as saying that elections were not an important right
*Dispose of national assets to find fresh cash
*Decree that all remaining private companies must sell 50% of their production to the government
*Etc...... including heavy intelligence insulting propaganda to pretend that all is fine and dandy in Venezuela

But the latest was in my opinion a fatal mistake for the regime. Maduro decided that the National Budget would be approved by decree law, with the support of course of the Judicial Constitutional Court. Now, I am not going to go into the unconstitutional and illegal ways in which the regime decides taxation and how it disposes of the funds through appointed folks.Trust me, the case is clear against the regime.

Since "No taxation without representation", and we know how that ended, it has been the rule in any and every democracy that the budget must be validated by a parliament. Even if that parliament is elected under fraud, but there must be a Parliament Act. Why is such a parliamentary act a requirement? Because it is the contract symbol that the state is the guarantor of the money lent or borrowed. Failure to do such an act means simply that the only responsible party is the guy in charge and that his mere death slipping at night in the bathtub is enough to question whether his successor has any obligation in fulfilling previous commitments.

In short, if you lend money to the Venezuelan government as of today, you have zero guarantee, LEGAL guarantee, that you will ever be paid back (that we are broke and unable to pay our debt is another story, but I digress). And considering that the guy in charge, Maduro, is an ass, with a shaky hold at best, I wonder who will bail the country out...

There are two implications here.

First, obviously, that taking over discretionary disposition of all the nation's income is the most naked act of dictatorship a regime can do. Never mind that in the same ceremony where the "budget" was signed Maduro already decided that he would not give money to any opposition district which by law he is forced to do, even if he has way to deliver less than the survival requirements of such districts. Thus now we are free from having to discuss over and over the dictatorial nature of the regime. All understand money, all understand that Maduro has officially privatized the budget. Even commies understand that.

The second consideration is that we are in big trouble. If the regime has resorted to such an extreme move it is because it feels that its end is near, that too many inside the regime are about to meet their legal destiny in some court. Since it has been proven amply that the regime could not care less about the welfare of the people (starvation cases, distressing lack of heath care for which I can personally vouch for as my SO has been left without chemotherapeutic without the possibility of legally buy it overseas) then it has been easy for them to take the final decision.

By privatizing the national budget the regime grabs directly whatever is left of the country resources to use them to support Cuba and the repression machinery needed to remain in office. That is right, there is not enough money for the rest, it will all be used to sustain the repression and ensuring a minimum of popular support to be able to recruit enough of those that will do that repression. I will note that the forced sale of 50% of production (that will probably not be paid on time, if at all, and after having lost all relevant value due to inflation) represents about what the regime can physically manage in that legal robbery handling, and what it needs roughly for its CLAP distribution system (who not surprisingly in the beggarly nature of chavismo support has allowed Maduro to get back to 30% in polls). Never mind that by forcing such sale the regime acknowledges that all the expropriations made under Chavez have only yielded a cemetery of once food producing businesses.

So there it is, the regime has played its last card.

The regime could not possibly care less about what the fate of the country and its people may be. There is no other card to be played, there is no expropriation that can be done which can satisfy the needs of the people, unless looting of homes is next. Expropriation of banks is useless when inflation is scheduled to be 4 digits next year. Nothing left for populism, not even borrowing as no one will be foolish enough to lend a penny to the the regime now. All has been wasted. There is only the little bit of food produced by the private sector and a worthless budget which can at least pay for the criminals that are needed for public order.

Tienes derecho a tu opinion pero tengo derecho a no respetarla

El régimen chavista ha trabajado mucho en alterar nuestro idioma para poder imponer sus ideas, debilitar nuestro pensamiento y afectar nuestra ética. Ya George Orwell nos explicaba ese fenómeno totalitario en "1984" o "Rebelión en la Granja".

Palabras abundan, como eso de "fortalecer" todo para esconder y justificar la erosión institucional. Otra es "libertario". O "apatrida". Etc.

Pero existe una expresión muy en boga ahora que ya no puedo tragar mas: "respeto tu opinión". Inclusive el periodismo la ha santificado a punto de olvidar lo que significan palabras tales como "hechos", "concreto", "seguimiento", "verdad".

Primero, está demostrado ampliamente que el chavismo no respeta nada, y menos una opinión. Preguntenle a Leopoldo López en Ramo Verde, el más dramático ejemplo. Piensen en todos los exiliados políticos.

"Respeto tu opinión" es en realidad una forma de decir con un mínimo de cortesía que tu opinión no sirve, no tiene sustento, no merece ser respetada, que la mía es la única que cuenta, la única con validez. ¡Una hermosura de dialéctica negativista!

Pero miremos hoy en dia todos los chavistas en el gobierno usando esa expresión.

¿Cómo puede tener validez la opinión de, digamos, el diputado Pedro Carroña Carreño? ¿No nos dijo ayer que las elecciones son un lujo prescindible? ¿Es eso respetable?

¿Cómo podemos respetar al vicepresidente Aristóbulo Istúriz cuando nos eructa que el abastecimiento va mejor porque hay menos colas? ¿No ve que las colas siguen? ¿Que si aparentase tener menos colas es que ya no queda nada que comprar?

Esto ya no es a nivel de propaganda política, ni siquiera de provocación y burla. Eso ya es a nivel de cuestionar el raciocinio del otro, de su capacidad de observación, decisión, pensamiento. Es deshumanizar al otro.

Así las cosas. Yo no sé lo que harán ustedes pero este aqui ya no respeta más las opiniones absurdas y sesgadas. El chavismo, y mucho radical de la oposición, tiene derecho a sus opiniones pero yo ahora recupero mi derecho a no respetarlas. Total, tienen años sin respetar las mías.

Ways out of the mess, doubtful all, military for sure, recall it ain't

Last I wrote on ways to get out of this mess was June 11 (and April). Things have changed somewhat since these entries. Time to include recent developments.

What has not changed

It is still a matter of a group of narko-mobsters holding Miraflores Palace who cannot surrender power because they will go to jail. All problems originate from this.

Period  1.

This has been a military regime for quite a while. Naming Vladimir Padrino as the head honcho co-president does not change things much, except on some stylistic matters, such as more naked repression, always a possibility.

Period 2.

What has changed

Even people that were reluctant to use the D word (D not for Democracy) are coming around and calling a spade, a spade. That for me it was officially a dictatorship since January 2013 is no consolation. Ever the Cassandra, sometimes even the laughing stock, but oh, so right.

The economic crisis is nearing tragedy proportions and the regime is simply unable comprehend, instead resorting to scrapping the very last bolivar that can be found. The cruelty shown by the regime is reaching genocidal proportions. This is for all to see, even at home in spite of heavy censorship of the air waves and even threats at social media.

And to drive in the point of the crisis there are reports of belt tightening in Cuba which proves that the colony is having problems supporting its master. From there to think that Cuba may want to get rid of Venezuela it is not that long of a stretch.

As a consequence there is some intensifying international movement. The OAS is starting the proceedings to apply its democratic charter on Venezuela. Mercosur does not want to give the rotating presidency to Venezuela. But the US seems to have misplaced views at forcing a "dialogue" upon Venezuelan opposition least a final collapse of Venezuela sends waves of Cuban, and Haitians, and Caribbeans, and Venezuelans to the Florida shores.

Facing all of this, the military had to take a more visible direct role. Why? They are already responsible for the mess, nobody believes for a second that their corrupt structure is going to change anything.  Two possible reasons.

First, and foremost in my opinion, there is not enough to loot and the higher ranks have decided to limit the robbery intake and restrain it some, to some. That extremely corrupt Marcos Torres is not sacked and remain in office would point that way. Let me remind you that he was the one managing the billions at HSBC Spain and is yet to account on how that money was used. He has been censored by the National Assembly and yet Maduro keeps him even though his signature on contracts has no more validity as far as the National Assembly is concerned. His direction of the economy in the last couple of years, well, speaks for itself.

Second, the army does not want to do Maduro's dirty job. That is, they do not want Maduro to call on them for rough repression and be the ones to go to trial some day for it. That co-presidency sounds to me like a "if I go down you go down with me" thing

What are the current exits

This being considered we can review quickly which could be the possible exits to Venezuela's political crisis today. Which may be invalid by tomorrow but that is another story.

The best one for the chavista party PSUV to avoid a final collapse is to have Maduro resign. This can be done in such a way that Maduro remains in office for, say, three more months before a new election to complete the 6 years term of office, even if the opposition (if not divided) is certain to win. That way chavismo can put all the blame on Maduro and pull out a relatively untainted figure that would ensure the PSUV to bounce back to the 20ies it currently hold in polls to a more palatable 30ies, or even 40ies.

Odds? since it makes sense the odds are not good. Also, it requires several things. That Cuba approves. That Maduro accepts to abide. That the opposition gets into the deal and offers a more "moderate" candidate than Capriles or Lopez or Machado. That X Y and Z.

The coup is a resuscitated option, the more so when one sees the probably faked coup of Erdogan in Turkey that is allowing him to get a MASSIVE purge of public officials in there. After all, there is a precedent in Venezuela. Chavez himself admitted to have provoked the 2002 crisis and used his survival to purge all what he could in the Venezuelan state.

There are two modalities for the coup depending on what the "provocation" may be. One is a simple dissolution of the National Assembly, akin to the Peruvian "Fujimorazo". The other, a variation, is a more extreme state of emergency removing all powers of the state,  Both options are "moderated" through a promise of  elections within a year.

Odds? since it is reckless, since they are more into the current style of Maduro, Cabello and all the others that are going to jail sooner or later, the odds are not bad. Since Venezuela is already a bankrupt pariah state, who cares?!

There is the possibility of general collapse. It is clear that the army, no matter what Padrino tries to do, is less and less in control. The latest shopping exodus to Colombia is an evidence. Just as when the Iron Curtain borders control collapsed announcing the end of Communist Eastern Europe.

La foto más impactante de los venezolanos cruzando la frontera con Colombia https://t.co/qANXRl7mah pic.twitter.com/PQUTD56pQc

— El Nacional (@ElNacionalWeb) 17 de julio de 2016

What would happen if general looting started, if people started marching from chavista former strongholds like Catia to Miraflores Palace?  All is possible, from civil war, to military bloody coup to a swift regime collapse like Argentina's De La Rua escape from Casa Rosada in 2001. Many variations are possible but all drive from a provisional regime to an opposition take over that would have to face the highly unpopular economic measures necessary to end and correct the chavista narko-corruption mess. Let´s not speculate on that for the time being.


Odds? Probably the highest at this point as it seems that the "civilian" and narko wings of chavismo would chose this way out, either to exculpate its mistakes or to purge once and for all its opposition. But it is doubtful that the military would accept that last one as they will be finding themselves at The Hague benches. We are in the XXI century after all. Hence probably the recent take over by Padrino, which is far from ruling out that option as the guy has started by counting chickens in combat vest.

@vladimirpadrino visita Empresa de Alimentos El Tunal, en Lara, como parte de la Gran Mision Abastecimiento Soberano pic.twitter.com/Hec5CVYXQ2

— Vladimir Padrino L. (@vladimirpadrino) 16 de julio de 2016

So that is that.

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PD: something probably thought that I did not discuss the Recall Election scenario. There will be no Recall Election. Nor any election for that matter (can you imagine chavismo losing 90% of State House in December!!!!).

A recall  election is the worse case scenario for chavismo. If Maduro is recalled, say, with a 20 points spread, that would reverberate badly downstream and the following presidential election could go to a spread half as larger!  That is, the end of PSUV.  Thus why I think that if the regime were to be forced into a Recall Election before 2017 it would have Maduro resign first, a less damaging option for the PSUV.

Father's day

It has been a rough week for your truly. On Monday I was mugged with all the problems that this entails for the rest of the week. And the week ends on Father's day, with a melancholy.


What happened Monday is that I was bringing supplies to the S.O. who is in the mid of a bad chemotherapy bout. I was cornered as I was getting out of my car by two motor bikes with two people on each. One of them a woman. I did not stand a chance, happy that they did not kidnap me, or steal my car or shoot me for sport.

The what they took me is not really the matter. My aging smart phone is gone (but for some luck of destiny the night before I had downloaded all the pics at home). My bag had some very personal valuable items that are of no use for them, except perhaps for the knife I always carry with me as the good Frenchman I am. The bag with the supplies they did not even look at it even though it had 5 liters of very precious milk and a brick of 50,000 bolivares that I bring regularly to the S.O. so he does not have to stand by cash machines or bank tellers where his weakness could make him an easy prey, with a probable fatal denouement if he were to be thrown on the floor in the scuffle.

Rather what the event left me was a profound thoughtfulness. I realize that I was in a hurry and not quite as careful as I usually am. That is, in Venezuela today you cannot make a single mistake because dark forces are always on the look out. Always.

I compared myself with the forest floor small rodent that needs to get out and scavenge for something to eat. That rodent needs to think about a lot of things before peeking out its den. There might be a wild cat close by. Maybe it will cross the path of soldier ants that shall make mince meat of it fast. If it needs to go near a clearing some bird of prey might pounce fast out of nowhere. Of course there are the silent slithering snakes.

Same thing for me, in particular the red snakes.

The rest of the week was a scramble to get some ID papers back, to cancel credit cards, change my passwords, to buy a new smart phone, an obligation in this country if you still have a job with some responsibilities.  I had to be exposed to what were a couple of bolibourgeois buying in front of me a golden Samsung S7 Edge priced 6 times more than the more modest Grand Prime that I had to downgrade to after my  stolen S3. That S7, for your information, is worth 100, ONE HUNDRED times the MONTHLY minimum wage in Venezuela.  I do feel already embarrassed to buy a smart phone which already costs 18 minimum wages, but I have no choice if I wanted a screen big enough to read who calls me without glasses (another security concern). At any rate, the cheapest of smart phones start at 10 minimum monthly wage. So there, 17 years of chavista equality down the phone drain.

This morning I was hoping to find some solace. The S.O. informed that he was starting to recover a little. I was safe at home, café au lait in hand (a luxury by itself) reading the weekly Tal Cual edition which had a special father's day issue. And a sad one as it focused on the broken families that cannot celebrarte such dates together because of emigration. The most conservative estimates give 1.5 million Venezuelans gone into exile since Chavez was elected. Apparently there are Venezuelan communities registered now in 96 countries, from the mighty half million in the US to a few dozens in Podunkistan.

And I started thinking about those of my family and friends that have left. For a while my close family did manage to stick together, but that is not true anymore, and it is about to get worse. My parents are now unable to come back to Venezuela for medical reasons. They could travel, yes, but they would not get the adequate care they need here, never mentioning that they cannot stand in line for food. For the third year in a row a phone call had to do, and them calling me since now there is no more direct calling to Europe. See, Venezuela state phone company is so broke that the regime has decided to go back to operator assisted calls to most countries so it can charge more. Private mobile phone companies have simply stopped offering the service. and you need to dial dozens of time until an operator answers.

But I digress, the point is that I cannot have my old parents anymore here, limiting myself to a yearly visit, as long as possible. But this summer I am losing two nephews who are graduating from high school and whose sad parents have to accept the financial sacrifice to send them overseas for college even though they have been accepted at one of the last decent private universities still operating in Venezuela. It is quite possible that they may never come back to Venezuela except perhaps for a brief Christmas stay as long as the parents still live here. My other nephews will follow the same path starting in a couple of years from now for the older one still here. Maybe in 5 years from now we will have all left.

That Maduro may fall this year does not change much the situation, the country has become a pit of red snakes.

Genocidal class warfare in Venezuela

Last week I took the S.O. to his monthly chemotherapy. We were late by almost two weeks while he was dealing with side effects of the preceding cycle. Thus it had been nearly two months. The place is an ample room with about 15 comfy chaises for patients and an extra chair for accompanying people. Usually it is full and often we had to wait up to an hour for our turn.

What was my surprise to see that only two other chairs were taken and that the S.O. went straight to a chair of his choice!


I asked our regular nurse in a bit of dark humor whether everyone was cured or dead. She told me that there are two reasons for attendance to drop dramatically over the last two months. One, the treatments must keep apace with inflation which means that it is becoming quite a burden for many, even with insurance, as paychecks are not following inflation. But more dramatic, oncologie medicine stocks have been exhausted for many type of cancers, in particular the more common ones like breast cancers. I suppose that in a perverse irony of the Fates my S.O. is lucky to have a rarer cancer... por ahora.

We were told that for those who cannot find medicine there is only two options: suspend treatment in the hope that the regime will keep its promise of finding "generics" which are of dubious quality when triangulated with Cuba as past experience demonstrates; or shell out foreign currency.

So, what does it mean to pay your own way with foreign currency?

Let's look at some simple facts to begin. By law the regime/state has the monopoly of bringing into the country certain type of drugs: HIV, Cancer, Kidney failure, Organ Transplant and some other special cases. The reason was a good one (from the "4th republic" by the way, not Chavez): since those medicines tend to be expensive the state paid for them to allow for equal access. If you were poor you got treated at a public hospital; if you were rich or middle class with health insurance then you could pick up your practitioner and get less traumatic care than what you get as a general rule at Venezuelan public hospitals. Either way, you got treated.

But things went down under Chavez when, first, the regime decided to set up a parallel health care system that ended up in two equally deficient systems. With the crisis coming, an over saturated private system does not have the means, or vocation or the ability to replace the public system.  The more so that the regime refuses to give it access to free convertible dollars to buy medicine and supplies. As it is the case of food and general drugs, treatment and analytical supplies are also dearly missing. And this is made graver for patients who depend on drugs under state monopoly, a monopoly that the state refuses to give up even though it cannot fulfill it.

Thus, if you have access to USD, and want to get your prescriptions from the US (or Colombia or even Mexico) you will need at least one trip to establish contact with a local physician that will write you that prescription (particularly in the US where M.D. are so afraid of malpractice suits that they refuse to write anything without seeing the patient). Be it Bogota or Miami we are talking here 1.000 for a round trip, between 200 and 1.000 on staying expenses depending on whether you have relatives there, plus the medical bill that can easily reach a multiple of 1.000 depending on your ailment. This for your first month; for the rest you may bring a supply for more than one cycle if drug stability is OK, or have someone else pick it up for you upon your local physician notice, or go back to pick the next lot. All of this, of course, if the sick person is able to travel because if it cannot, then...

We are looking here at a bottom line of 2.500 USD a trip. Since the minimal wage in Venezuela is at 11 USD, that trip, for a month supply, represents 227 MONTHLY MINIMUM WAGE. Think about that for a minute.

Clearly, only the super rich can afford treatment today. If you are middle to upper middle class you may be able to pay for a few months and quickly deplete whatever savings you have outside of the country, if you have them. And then, well, join the poor.

The catch here is who are the super rich that have easy access to dollars for themselves or the relatives they chose to help. There are two groups, those that were already rich in USD before Chavez and those that became obscenely rich under Chavez. Many in the group BEFORE are either long gone anyway, or got long ago a US health insurance. Their concern, if any, is for relatives left behind. And those that did not leave the country during Chavez first years do not have an endless supply of US dollars, amen of having actually to earn these while the chavista super rich simply steal the money they need, in dollars, straight.

At this point it is simply inconceivable, it is a crime against Human Rights not to allow free, if targeted, convertibility of currency so that sick people can at the very least avoid the trip part for getting the care they need. The regime is coldly erasing through death or financial failure the historical middle to upper middle class since the only rich folks that can deal with the current situation are the ones close to the regime.

At least in this particular case, at this time, we can use the term "genocidal class warfare". You either die, go bankrupt or leave the country. You have no other option.

Some pro Chavez/regime supporter may point out that it is mere justice that all Venezuelans have to go though this, rich or poor.  After all, the poor do not get either the medicine, nor the health support. I will reply that totalitarian regimes do not care about what happens to their civilians. They are a mere casualty in the war for the just cause. It does not matter for the regime whether its supporters die in greater numbers, they are expendable. What matters in the end is that the opposition to the regime is broken. The end justifies the means. All methods are valid. Period.

Let me remind you historical precedents, such as Hitler not afraid to distract from its army and civilians resources for use in Jewish extermination carried out all the way to the last day of the war. Or how Stalin drive to liquidate Koulaks had no problem creating a general starvation, or how the Castros never lost a night of sleep over the balseros braving the straights of Florida or the Argentina's military sending unprepared soldiers to the Falklands, or....

The current holders of the Venezuelan regime have absolutely no qualms about letting people die of disease, and I mean not only cancer patients. Never mind those who will die soon of malnutrition and those who already die of violence in the barrios. What the regime wants is for denizens of El Cafetal, or Prados, or Altamira to stay terrified at home, looking at what next heirloom they will need to sell at low price to help buy medicine for cousin Juan. That chavista supporters suffer more, die in much greater numbers is really not an issue for Maduro.

------------------

Note: I already wrote in Spanish a note on why there is already enough evidence to instruct a dossier on chavista leadership to send them to the Hague tribunal. I suggest that the National Assembly starts officially the procedure. After all, if Dilma got impeached Sunday I do not see why we should not try to do so with Maduro.

Onward the final constitutional crash: amnesty law and high court reform

The Easter lull came and went without making much of a difference.  The "calima" suffocated us in Caracas while the country went on a standstill to try to spare a few meters from the water gauge of the Guri dam, before El Niño, and regime's utter incompetence, forces a shut down of 50% of the country's electricity.

This is not Beijing, it is today over Caracas. You cannot even guess that there is a 2000 meter mountain range in the background. I have NEVER seen it that bad. The air stings slightly when you breathe.

Una foto publicada por daniel duquenal (@duquenal_at_vnv) el 21 de Mar de 2016 a la(s) 2:14 PDT

But the country is back at work, as much as it is possible, and the National Assembly has started the road to open confrontation not only with the executive, but on the true meaning of the Venezuelan constitution, as this one may be.


A few minutes ago the National Assembly voted the final version of the amnesty law which aims, among other things, to free political prisoners incarcerated in kangaroo courts. An amnesty is needed since there is no way to get a truly fair trial in Venezuela these days.

Aprobada en 2da discusión la #LeyDeAmnistia pic.twitter.com/2ztnDWC7aq

— María Corina Machado (@MariaCorinaYA) March 30, 2016

But this law, which intents is also the start of some form of national reconciliation by forcing every side to face the reality that justice is in the hands of the executive (even though this cannot be said in the law), is far from being applied and Leopoldo Lopez is not out of jail yet. Maduro's regime has announced that he will not sign the law, that it will not be applied. Presidential veto power is limited in Venezuela, at best a delaying tactic. Thus within days, with or without the signature of Maduro the law will become the law of the land. Maduro can only stop this law application if the high court TSJ rules it to be unconstitutional. This is certainly the case as the TSJ has always managed to find any "unconstitutional" way to make a given an unconstitutional one, even if the means used is itself unconstitutional. Repetition intended.

Which brings us to the second point of this entry: after the vote the national Assembly went straight ahead in the modification of the  laws describing how the  TSJ is designated.  The aim is to find a way to go around the latest crop of appointees who got their job through unconstitutional ways to allow for the pre-electoral packing of the court.  Yes, it is that naked but then again the TSJ submission to the regime is that naked: nobody remembers when was the last time that the state/regime lost a case in court.

In short, the regime is going to be placed in front of this dilemma: either accept the revision of the latest appointments so those can be made according to the original intent of the law, or accept an expansion of the TSJ members so that there is at least dissenting opinions. A dilemma the regime will refuse by declaring that legal reform unconstitutional, even though it will violate the very own regime jurisprudence that was itself a constitutional violation. This is how things work in Venezuela: several wrongs are required to improve the odds of making a right.

In a way it is irrelevant whether the regime will release Lopez from jail, or allow for a limited dissent at the TSJ. It is quite clear now that the regime faction aligned around Maduro and Cabello will go out of its way to avoid any move that could undermine its power and drive through regime change, a change that would find soon in jail Maduro, Cabello, Ramirez and scores of other corrupt and abusive office holders.

The regime has made it abundantly clear that it will not let the new National Assembly function as it should be. The TSJ has already gutted its control authority. It is finding a way to avoid votes on financial resources (which may be difficult at the Assembly has already stated that credits not approved by the Assembly do not put the state under the obligation of repaying them). More blockades to the Assembly are not obvious yet as its election is, after all, still recent. But the tone is set: the TSJ will provide what the regime cannot get through the Assembly.

Since the regime has embarked into such a course to void the National Assembly then this one has no choice but to face down the confrontation by voting on legal laws (redundancy intended) to dismantle the regime. Either the regime will have to back down or it will have to come up to terms with its own dark intentions and, well, proceed once and for all to the "autogolpe", self-inflicted-coup á la Fujimori once upon a time in Peru.

For the regime going all the way to a constitutional crisis is a gamble. Not only the Amnesty Law and the TSJ reform are politically unacceptable for the reduced chavista hard core, but more laws in the work (on recall elections and referenda) are even less acceptable. The political cost, here and abroad, maybe simply to high for the regime to pay. Times are changing, Obama visited Cuba, Argentina is gone and Kirchner is not able to make the opposition that some thought she would be able to do. In Brasil the corruption of Lula is now public knowledge. Talk of applying the democratic charter agaisnt Venezuela is now open talk. But what is worse for the regime is that there is no food nor medicine, and soon there will be no electricity besides providing homes with a very few hours a day, forget about energy for production. Amen of the political capital lost abroad: the regime has no political capital left to spend at home.

Common sense would make the regime start negotiating a political solution to start taking measures to avoid the nation's collapse. But it seems that Maduro et al are seeking actively such collapse as there last desperate gambit to retain power.

La politique du pire, they called it in the agonizing French Ancien Regime.

Karadzic para luminarias chavistas

Hoy nos enteramos que el serbiobosnio Radovan Karadzic ha sido sentenciado en la corte internacional de La Haya por crímenes de lesa humanidad y genocidio en las matanzas de Srebenica. La justicia tardo 20 años en llegar para los musulmanes de Bosnia, pero llegó. Amen que la sentencia coincide con una era de injustificada ira contra los musulmanes decentes por parte de gente como Trump y Cruz, o los políticos populistas de extrema derecha en Europa. Es justicia para los musulmanes de Bosnia que eran en esa época, posiblemente, los mas civilizados, los mas a tono con los valores de democracia hasta que un nacionalismo de corte fascista se empecino en destruirlos. Los crimines de Karadzic contribuyeron en algo al extremismo actual del islam radicalizado.


Pero más allá de la condena de Karadzic, sin querer hacer paralelos ridículos con la situación en Venezuela, buena es la ocasión para que algunos personeros del chavismo entiendan que crimines contra la humanidad no prescriben y que en algún momento la justicia llegará. No se puede robar tanto, arruinar tanto a un país, abusar tanto de su gente sin que en algún momento hable la justicia. Y si la justicia de Venezuela no habla, la de La Haya lo hará en su debido tiempo.

Todavía está a tiempo la jerarquía chavista de tomar los correctivos que sean necesarios para evitar que la justicia los condene a cadena perpetua como pasó hoy con Karadzic. Me conformo con listar abajo crimines potenciales o ya comprobados de algunos chavistas que deberían permitir entender la situación en la cual están, desde ya.

No voy a hablar de los narco traficantes de peso, casi todos militares, porque el volumen de tráfico de drogas por Venezuela solo fue posible por la aquiescencia del estamento militar. Para ellos ya hay cortes actuando. Pregúntenle a Carvajal que ya no podrá más nunca salir de Venezuela. Pregunten a los de la lista de Obama quienes según la miserable propaganda del régimen serian patriotas corderitos de dios, sin que nadie nos explique con veracidad como es que un vuelo de Air France cargo con centenares de kilos de cocaína, algo imposible sin fallas gravísimas de la seguridad de Maiquetia en manos de los militares.

Tampoco voy a hablar mucho de corrupción y de lavado de dinero. De eso también hay cortes pendientes. Preguntarle a Rincón en Houston a quien le fue negada la fianza porque se podía dar el lujo de perder los millones que tiene en EE.UU. ya que tiene aún más millones fuera de los EE.UU. Preguntarle al que está ya sentenciado por desfalcar a PDVSA por los ahorros de sus empleados. Y así muchos mas en la mira.

Los que vienen al caso son los que serán condenados por permitir, crear, impulsar una situación política que nos está conduciendo hacia una represión masiva, o a una guerra civil.

Por ejemplo tomemos a los jueces alcahuetas y corruptos del TSJ. Empecemos, hay que empezar en algún sitio, por Luisa Estela Morales, culpable de tantas violaciones constitucionales que permitieron establecer la actual dictadura. ¿No sabia ella lo que estaba haciendo? Recordemos que esa mujer tuvo la desfachatez de decir que la separación de poderes era un mal asunto. Sumemos los jueces ya huidos a EE.UU (¿dónde más?) y que han revelado diáfanamente la corrupción moral de la justicia en Venezuela. Agreguemos a jueces ya con prontuario policial y que apenas designados ya presiden la sala de casación penal, en un claro signo que la justicia será lo que decida el régimen, jueces que ya no tienen nada que perder y que por lo tanto se prestarán a firmar la sentencia que sea para permitir al régimen durar un día más. ¿Justicia y derechos?

Prosigamos por los aupadores de oficio, los que tienen una carrera política dedicada a crear divisiones, a amenazar a quien no comulgue con el régimen. Muchos hay allí pero tomemos dos en particular. Uno es un psiquiatra ya reconocido como psicópata y alcalde de Caracas. Otro que además de estar señalado en corrupción y narcotráfico también es el responsable de organizar agresión a diputados en el propio recinto de la Asamblea Nacional, llamar a la violencia y tener un programa televisivo done agrede verbalmente, difama, ataca y amenaza con toda impunidad. Gente como Rodríguez y Cabello ya tienen su puesto asegurado en la lista de los que tendrán que rendir cuenta más temprano que tarde.

Hablemos de los que por su empeño en ocultar su mala gestión están condenando el país a una posible hambruna, a un posible colapso epidemiológico. Si bien mala gestión se detecta hasta en los países mas desarrollados, lo que denota en Venezuela es la saña que agregan esos personeros a sus actuaciones. Tengo en mente ministros de Sanidad o alimentación.

Hablar de la violación de los derechos humanos seria ya tarea demasiado larga para esta entrada. Con solo mencionar la Lista de Tascón y la represión del 2014 ya tenemos con que enjuiciar a varios civiles y militares.

Hablando de militares el caso de Vladimir Padrino es interesante. Todavía no se puede decir si sus actos justificarían denunciarlo en La Haya. Pero de lo que si estamos seguro es que de apoyar la represión solicitada por el régimen el podría encabezar la lista con sobrados méritos. Otro veredicto de culpabilidad pocos días antes de el de Karadzic fue en contra del jefe militar congoles Bemba. Es notable que en este caso Bemba fue condenado a pesar de que el no estuvo presente en el lugar de los hechos. Solamente por mandar tropas a la República Centroafricana y desentenderse del potencial de violencia fue suficiente para condenarlo. Es notable también que Bemba fue arrestado cuando ya estaba en el exilio, demostrando que ganando o perdiendo el juego politico no ofrece protección alguna contra delitos que no prescriben. Así como Padrino hay muchos jerarcas del ejercito que deberían pensarlo un poco mas antes de seguir ordenes indebidas, que posiblemente ni siquiera vienen de nuestro pais.

Acortemos esta lista mencionando al que dirige al circo aunque no sea su dueño. Al rechazar la ayuda de la OMS frente a la crisis de salud de Venezuela el presidente Maduro ya se pone a pie de cruzar la línea entre la incompetencia criminal y el genocidio. Y no es lo único que ameritaría un juicio en contra de él que sin duda alguna resultaría en una sentencia de muchísimos años en alguna cárcel del mundo.

Sugiero que los que pueden hacer todavía algo para detener la marcha a la catástrofe, lo hagan. No tienen por qué pagar las culpas de estos irresponsables hundiendo al país tratando de salvar su vil pellejo. Los únicos que pueden hacer eso son la porción del PSUV que no quiere terminar de hundirse en la infamia para salvar a los que cometieron crimines que esos chavistas no tienen por qué pagar. Incluyamos los pocos militares que robaron poco y no se metieron en narcotráfico y que no desean mancharse de la sangre de la represión que se les va a pedir, sangre que no se puede lavar nunca de las manos. No nos olvidemos de los funcionarios públicos que todavía pueden renunciar estrepitosamente y hablar aunque sea desde el otro lado de la frontera. Todavía está en esos grupos la posibilidad de hacer algo para no entrar en las listas que se mandarán algún día hasta La Haya. Esperemos que traten de evitar un viaje a La Haya, aunque sea solo como testigos vergonzosos de la infamia.

Tumeremo

The story that has been unfolding in the mining region of Bolivar state is yet a new low for the bolivarian regime. all corruptions, all abuses, all cruelty seem to have somehow managed to meet there.

I am not going to go into details. the executive summary is as follow.

Legal mining in Bolivar state has been progressively edged out under Chavez. What should have been organized gold search production ended up as illegal mining controlled by mafias and protected by the corrupt military of the area (who among other business controlled supply, gas contraband, etc.). And possibly Colombian guerrilla in Amazonas state.

The result has been what could one expect, and worse.

First, the are has become an ecological disaster as once pristine rivers straight out of the jungle where only a handful of natives lived are now containing mercury. The deforestation over a soil which has a difficult regeneration because it is a thin narrow layer of biomass (old ancient rock hard terrain) has been denounced repeatedly without any response form the authorities while the regime promoted its ecological brand, supported by many idiots in Europe and the US. Amen of the damage to the terrain itself through reckless wash out without any attempt as consolidation of the remains. Even the great national park that contains the highest water fall of the world is under threat.

Second, the human cost has been terrible. Never mention the garimpeiros coming from Brazil. Let's just focus on what has become a mere form of XXI century indented labor of all of these people forced to purchase supplies from military/gangs approved suppliers. It has been years since the locals and the Native Americans have been protesting, sometimes very actively. But no matter what may have been agreed the army went back to all its associations with thugs for their common racketeering business.

So, it thus came to pass. As the level of oil went down, so went down miscellaneous subsidies and so went down revenues from the illegal mining area.  Gang wars got worse and last week relatives reported the disparation of 28 miners, yet to be found. But tales of massacre by some survivors are now vox populi. The regime through its governor delayed quite a lot in accepting that there was a problem even going as far as saying that it was yet another media manipulation, even though the relatives were blocking in anger the main road to the South of the country.

The political problem here is that beyond the almost certain fact the the gang of El Topo did the deed, the ultimate guilt rests squarely at the feet of the Venezuelan Army for allowing all that traffic and to the feet of Bolivar governor, former military pal of Chavez, Rangel Gomez.

So, since this is now a political problem the regime has done what it knows best, condemn in another kangaroo trial the editor owner of the lone opposition paper of the area, Correo del Caroni, which has been following closely all the violence and corruption in the state. It is noteworthy that the trial had been dormant for months and suddenly in a couple of days it was revived and a sentence emitted against the paper in the middle of the night. Note that the people suing the paper for defamation, even though they actually served jail for corruption, are not linked to the mining violence. As it is always the case in Venezuela against the press a case is held languishing until the regime needs a favorable verdict at a given time.

That is why I wrote at the beginning of this blog entry that the mining situation in Bolivar is a microcosm of all that is wrong in Venezuela, from thug gang wars to extortion, from freedom of expression to an official lies system, from corruption to approved genocide.  Human rights violations in Bolivar may be the worse in Venezuela, and that is already saying something.

I cite a verse of French poet Aragon

[Tumeremo]
Là-bas où le destin de notre siècle saigne
(over there where our century's fate bleeds)

Musings on the pharmaceutical genocidal debacle

Thinking about what I wrote last night, giving Maduro a D-. I realized that I was too generous, that my Scientific objectivity took above my best judgement. These measures mean nothing, at best it is a way for him to gain a few more weeks until he finds a way to save his ass. Nothing basic will change in the system. That is all.

A brutal slap drove that point a couple of hours ago. In yet another cadena Maduro sat in front of him representatives of the pharmaceutical sector to "restart" production which apparently to  him has unaccountably stopped. Basically he rediscovered the wheel and medicines will churned soon for the great contentment of the people. Unfortunately I wok in the sector and things are not as rosy as he would like el pueblo to believe.


Well, a note first: I do not work in the human medical sector but part of my activities are related to animal husbandry medications and the story is exactly the same. There we see much lower yields because animals cannot be treated adequately. And thus less protein for el pueblo.

I am not going to discuss how medicine is paid or costs in Venezuela: every country has its own very complex system. What I am going to address is how come there is today a criminal, yes, criminal, shortages of medicine in Venezuela.

Before Chavez Venezuela did not produce active principles of a large majority of most medicines. Like most countries in the world, it had a wide representation of diverse major pharmaceuticals companies that would or would not produce on site a given principle, pill it or bottle it for Venezuela and export it to neighboring countries. And vice versa. There were also several local pharmaceutical that would get licenses to manufacture all sorts of generics with raw material imported from wherever. In short, a wide variety of pharmaceuticals were available and we were the envy of Latin America. The only problem was cost. Admittedly a significant one but not an insoluble one if a serious government had set its mind to make public hospitals work efficiently and dispense directly medicine to the neediest sectors of the population. And yet costs were not astronomical and at least the middle class managed quite well.

When chavismo set its currency exchange controls, its importations barriers, its refusal to accept that foreign companies recover their investments, the whole system unraveled. Add to this sub par quality imports from Cuba to satisfy Barrio Adentro Mision and other unfair competition and ridiculous price controls and you get the picture.

The mystery is not that pharmacy shelves are empty today, the mystery is how come they have not been empty 2 years ago already.

What happened took place in different phases, First, major foreign laboratories closed one by one, moving their production facilities to Colombia or elsewhere. Quite often the products they manufactured here disappeared, not even coming back imported from the new place. Simply, they left the country, having enough of its problems. Then, as currency crunch happened, suppliers of raw material became more and more reluctant to provide what the local generics needed to make their pills, packagings and the like. The debt ballooned and suppliers simply stopped sending stuff.  Hence the current situation. As for what could not be assembled here, well, they stopped coming even before generics stopped production.

The criminal role of the regime CANNOT be understated: the medical emergency has already been denounced since early last year, people have died, and keep falling and we had to wait until today to finally hear about a new plan that will not resolve anything. At best, the regime announced that it will decide which deseases you can survive and which, well, will be too bad for you if you get them.

The regime guilt comes from its stubborn refusal to create a free exchange rate where people could at least import medicine at international cost. But no, we all have to die the same, and only the very reach, those with hefty accounts over seas can bring whatever they need to bring in. This is XXI century socialism for you.

What is terrible here is that the solution is simple and fast, at least to restock the shelves of the basics.  Remove price controls. Free the currency for import of raw material, packaging needs, etc. In three months top you will get again 90% of the generics produced 2 years ago. The production lines exist, the people to make them are trained. You do not even need to pay back debt to suppliers yet, you can wait a little bit longer for that and start paying it AFTER production restarts. They will understand (I know what I am talking about, direct experience with providers). Many of the raw materials can actually be brought in airborne as they are needed in small amounts. The rest can come in a couple of dozen containers just to restart the basics like acetaminophen for dengue and zika or high blood pressure drugs.

That it will be too expensive? What is worse: cheap inexistant pills or expensive available pills?  For the poor the regime just needs to organize large scale discounted purchases for public hospitals and provide the prescription for free for those that go there for treatment. Or charge them a nominal fee. Corruption is easily control: one package for hospitals and one for pharmacies so you will know if what you buy has been subtracted from an hospital.

It is really quite simple and the dollars for that exist. You just need to stop the corruption around it.

But since the regime is unwilling to do that, then I have the regret to insist on that: the regime is guilty of genocidal practices against the Venezuelan people for deliberately depriving it from on time access to necessary medication.

Period.

La mendacidad de Elias Jaua

Es con usted, diputado Jaua

Leo su respuesta a lo que usted llama "infame el editorial de El Nacional".

Yo no voy a entrar en el debate de si la diputada Tamara Adrian oyó lo que ella oyó. Ella sabrá defenderse; y muy bien lo hará porque ella no tuvo nunca los apoyos que usted tuvo y que le permitieron tirar piedras toda su vida quedando impune.

Tampoco voy a especular si la diputada Adriana D'Elia es una lesbiana. Eso es irrelevante, y ni me importa como a usted no debería importarle lo que la gente hace con su vida privada mientras no afecte a otros. Le recuerdo que su vida privada si afecta a otros cuando, por ejemplo, usted hace que la República cubra los costos de viaje de su niñera bien armada.

Le escribo porque leo en su respuesta a El Nacional estas cosas:

"los dueños de El Nacional otra vez desatan su odio sistemático contra mi persona"
"desarrollan sus prejuicios raciales y de clase en mi contra"
"No he proferido insulto, y mucho menos de carácter homofóbico,contra la diputada Adriana D'Elia a quien respeto como ser humano"
"Nunca he hecho uso de la palabra 'mariposones' acuñada [...]por el diputado Henry Ramos Allup para referirse a los dirigentes del partido Primero Justicia. ¿Quien es el homofóbico?"
"mi reconocimiento, basado en el principio constitucional de la igualdad ciudadana, a sus derechos pero sobre todo en el valor humano y cristiano [...] que profeso"

El problema es que para decir tales cosas uno necesita tener credibilidad y usted no la tiene.

Lei bien el editorial de El Nacional al cual usted se refiere y no veo donde ellos hacen mención de su raza o de su clase. A menos que eso esté implicado, en su criterio, por las palabras "hombre nuevo" y "encapuchamiento".  Si es así le ruego me explique porque yo lo desconozco. En cuanto al odio sistemático no estaría de más que usted lo sustente porque a mi me parece que bastante gente ha criticado sus acciones, sistemáticamente. En eso El Nacional no tendría ningún privilegio. Como figura pública le recomiendo que en esta nueva era se vaya acostumbrando de una buena vez a la crítica sin tomarla personalmente.

Cuando usted escribe que respeta a la diputada D'Elia "como ser humano" usted me va a disculpar pero eso disminuye su credibilidad. Respetar como ser humano es lo menos que se le exige a quien sea, y más que eso a un diputado de la República. Es su deber respetar a la gente como personas, no solamente como seres humanos. Es su deber dar el respeto que usted exige para si mismo.

Acusar a Ramos Allup de homofóbico no resuelve su problema. Que él lo sea no le puede servir en ningún caso de excusa. Entiendo que la mentalidad del chavismo es echarle la culpa a quien sea de sus errores, sea la cuarta república, sea el imperio y se quien sabe que otra bobada como la fulana guerra económica. Pero los errores al final son suyos y usted tiene que asumirlos. El asunto aquí es que su credibilidad esta anulada de antemano por pertenecer a una corriente política de tendencia homofóbica muy bien documentada. ¿Se recordará usted del infame "patiquines maricones de Primero Justica" lanzado por Juan Barreto en el 2004? ¿O las constantes alusiones gay en contra de Henrique Capriles durante las campañas de 2012 y 2013? Sin hablar de la campaña de Cabello contra Mendoza en Miranda donde con sorna el argumentaba Cabello que por fin Miranda tendría primera dama. Sin referirme al historial de la prensa, solamente en mi blog la etiqueta "homofóbia" le conducirá a una serie de artículos donde explico mi posición sobre la homofóbia chavista, empezando en julio del 2004.

Pero personalmente lo que a mi más me molestó en su respuesta a el Nacional fue la ultima parte porque a mi, personalmente, me consta que eso es mentira, que usted no cree en la igualdad ciudadana. Reconozco que siendo yo "sexo diverso", parece que la palabra gay no le gusta a su gente ya que prefieren lo genérico en aras de castigar mas fácilmente lo específico, no he luchado como hubiese debido hacerlo. Pero mi lucha tuvo que ser primero para los valores de todos, desde la libertad de prensa e información hasta la libertad de disfrutar del esfuerzo de mi trabajo. ¿De que me sirven derechos gay si los derechos humanos básicos de la constitución del 99 ni se cumplen y menos se respetan?

Lo que a mi me ha dolido en lo personal leyendo su respuesta es que cuando usted era canciller de la república bolivariana se emitió un comunicado a las embajadas de los países que reconocían las uniones y matrimonios igualitarios prohibiendo tramitar dichas uniones. Aunque sean entre ciudadanos de estos países. Ni siquiera explicando a los venezolanos casándose con un ciudadano de estos países que ese matrimonio/unión no tenia validez alguna en Venezuela. Tengo doble nacionalidad pero no he podido hacer beneficiar a mi pareja de dos décadas de ventajas que podría ofrecerle a través de mi otro pais porque Venezuela no solamente lo prohibe pero no ofrece esas ventajas. Ustedes ni lavan ni prestan la batea.

Por lo tanto, para mi, su concepto de igualdad ciudadana no existe. A menos que sea que todos hagamos cola para poder comer, aunque de seguro tampoco eso se aplica a usted y su familia.

Le sugiero diputado Jaua que usted empiece por disculparse y a actuar como diputado para promover lo que usted nunca quiso hacer cuando podía hacerlo como ministro. Es justicia. ¿O será que se escudará con el "cristiano [...] que profeso"" para también justificar su homofóbia e intolerancia?

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Nota: observo que El Nacional publicó su respuesta, su derecho a replica, privilegio que nadie ofendido por VTV o cualquier medio del gobierno. Medios pagados con los impuestos de todos, le recuerdo.

Is the sentence on Leopoldo Lopez relevant?

No, this is no bait title. Whether Leopoldo Lopez is freed or condemned today has become almost irrelevant for the coming history. As I type this a small crowd of opposition leaders (small on purpose, by the way) is barred from the court building where the final sentence on Leopoldo Lopez is supposedly to be pronounced at any minute. And whatever the result is, even if I learn it as I type, it does not change much the coming text.


I think the regime will condemn Leopoldo Lopez. They are crazy enough to do that and make Lopez the "great" leader of the opposition. Capriles has been fading steadily and even went into ridiculous having to fight a silly battle on Tweeter to pretend that he did not say what he said on some of the fallout of the Colombian border crisis. Maria Corina Machado seems to have realized that Primero Justicia and AD, and others, prefer to keep chavismo at Miraflores before giving her a chance at anything. Thus she seems to have decided to support Lopez until better days come for her. Henri Falcon is now fatally flawed as he is trying to position himself as a transition figure that would allegedly draw in a chavismo dissidence. And there is no one else, really, that can even pretend at disputing the leadership to Lopez.

Whether the leadership of Lopez is what the country needs is now irrelevant.  The regime not only has made this to happen, but it is speeding up the final outcome by its inability to face to the economic and political crisis of Venezuela. Recent polls are lapidary and even "pro Chavez" pollsters give a double digit advantage for the opposition, big enough that one can hardly see a way for the regime to reduce it. Somewhat it will shrink some as the campaign goes on but 2 years of mismanagement and long lines for a little bit of food and toilet paper cannot be forgotten easily.

The regime has tried all sorts of tricks to distract public opinion and try to create excuses that would allow it to at the very least postpone elections. The latest attempt, by manufacturing a crisis with Colombia is going nowhere. The alleged victory at the OAS  was notable not by its narrowness but by the fast shrinking influence of Venezuela there. Next crisis vote and the regime will lose at the OAS. After a weak to dismal initial reaction of Colombia's president Santos, this one has taken successfully the initiative. The "defeat" at the OAS has allowed it to criticize Brazil for its lack of leadership and to wave away the UNASUR empty shell, an humiliation for it considering that an Colombian ex-president is at its helm. Then he went to the border with lots of international guests to hold a cabinet meeting with the victims of Venezuela's abuse. Then the foreign minster Holguin described with details the duplicity and web of lies weaved by the regime in its failed propaganda.

In contrast not only Maduro has failed to call an equivalent meeting on the Venezuelan side, knowing full well that he would be booed loudly, but the wannabe conquering hero went to China to ask for survival cash for the elections of December. In short, the border crisis seems to have brought him zero benefit on the Venezuelan side.

What is left to do for the regime? This one cannot afford to lose elections because a real government will send a few of its members to jail. So a new crisis has to be created and what better than giving Leopoldo Lopez a maximum sentence. Heck! Why not have him murdered in jail to see if the opposition rise in protest so it can be brutally crushed and elections outright cancelled.

That would be a terrible mistake for the regime, the last straw internationally to force many into recognizing its rogue nature, and speed up the economic downfall: the easiest way to undo the regime, fast, without military intervention. The writing is on the wall. US Secretary of State has posed a few days ago with the wife of Lopez. Thomas Shannon, the political operator that posed with Diosdado Cabello a few weeks ago posed a few days ago with a second fiddle at Lopez party, thus equating him to Cabello in importance, a terrible insult for a narcissistic rogue like Cabello, The Spanish Senate has had a nearly unanimous vote to demand that the Spanish government do more for Venezuelan political prisoners. Last but not least, under internal pressure the weakening Roussef government has had to admit (accept?) that there is a need for international supervision for the December vote in Venezuela.

Truly, can the Venezuelan regime be so blind? It is, because it is a rogue regime, because Maduro obeys Cuban orders, because Cuba cannot give up under any pretense whatever alimony it still cashes from Venezuela. Because, very simply, it has run out of ideas and has only violence left in its belt.

In the end it does not matter. If Lopez is not condemned, and freed, the opposition gets a boost. If Lopez is kept in jail, the injustice will be too flagrant and the opposition not only will also get a boost, but it will get another one from overseas. My guess is that the regime will go ahead and condemn Lopez anyway in the belief that it will radicalize its base and bring out the vote. Or the violence.

Note to Obama and Santos: appeasing thugs NEVER works

The Venezuela-Colombian border crisis should have been a fantastic opportunity to put the Venezuelan narco-regime on notice. Instead it serves as show case on how the appeasement policies of Obama and Santos are sinking fast.

The crisis was an absolutely artificial creation of the Venezuelan regime, increasingly taxed by its faults. As polls plummet for the regime when crucial elections are scheduled for December 6, this one has done all what it can to sabotage them. One offensive was to go straight ahead and jail major opposition figures, bar from running other, gerrymander further the districts, increase censorship and try to bankrupt the scant remaining free press. Elections? Sure! Just try to campaign! However it was an uphill battle to regain the favor of its electors, the only real way to win elections. Since the economy has tanked there is only one option left to rekindle the love of the chavista voter: chauvinistic nationalism, redundancy intended.

First there was a renewed anti US anti Obama drive. This one floundered when Havana and Washington started real talks and petered out at the recent OAS general assembly when Maduro got to see Obama without cameras for a brief moment, long enough for Obama to talk him down.

It seems thus that the "millions" of anti Obama signatures "freely collected" and validated without scruples by the "electoral authorities" were not enough to raise polls for a durable hold. So Maduro sought a conflict with Guyana over maritime and territorial claims. The only result of that came with a further loss of the Venezuelan case; and that the supposedly meek supporters of Venezuela in CARICOM went Guyana way without batting an eyelash. Isolation is thy name, Maduro.

Having been defeated in the imaginary northern border with the US of A and the Eastern border of Guyana there were only two borders left. The one in the South with Brazil is far and dicey although it seems the regime will try something. But the Western border with Colombia was ripe with existing excuses, or fertile grounds to plant new ones.

There are all sorts of theories on how the pretext came about. Some say that it all started from a rivalry between two narco-gangs in Venezuela, the one of the "Soles" and the one of "Guajira", both pointed out as being at least partially controlled by different wings of the army. Others say that it was a mere rivalry between gangs controlling the heavy contraband system towards Colombia, courtesy of the artificially deflated prices of Venezuelan goods. Others advance that it was a way to get rid of Tachira governor rumored to be in talks with "transition" proposals. Some even go as far as saying the whole show is just to put pressure on Santos who may extradite to the US compromising witnesses of the narco-regime in Caracas. None of these pretexts exclude the others, by the way.

Clearly, something as crazed as that, with damning images of human rights abuses as Colombians in Venezuela are rudely expelled when not leaving in a hurry motu proprio, should have been a bonus, a golden opportunity for Colombian and US diplomacy to read a writ to Venezuela. Unfortunately the errors of Santos and Obama policies toward Venezuela's regime are now paid, most likely under Cuban direction. Which have been these mistakes?

Obama's mistakes come from opening to Cuba without proper reciprocity.  Thinking that making the first step toward a totalitarian regime will bring concessions is a mistake that the West should have learned once and for all in 1938 while drinking beer in Munich. Certainly I approved of Obama's initiatives since everything else tried before by the US has failed; more by lack of will than actual vices or virtues of any legislation. But one thing is to approve the initial gesture, another thing is to approve the mechanism chosen. The result is that as soon as Cuba realized that the big bucks were not coming fast the Castro's regime started increasing repression and moving its pieces elsewhere. Extortion is the natural state for these people and that Obama and Kerry thought it would be different this time around is simply bedeviling.

The second mistake was sending Shannon to discuss with Maduro and Cabello without anything in exchange. Or so it seems so far. True, it is supposed that the release of half a dozen of political prisoners would be a result of that, along the call for elections which was suspiciously delayed. But the released prisoners are under house arrest and suffer all sorts of impediments while elections can be cancelled even on election day. The real result of these "negotiations" is that thug in chief, Diosdado Cabello, pointed out by many as a drug capo, feels vindicated and now indispensable. So as any good thug would do he has increased his attacks on people who dare criticize him, has decided to bankrupt once and for all the remaining free newspapers, and more. So much for Shannon effectiveness.

Colombia's president, Santos, mistakes started 5 years ago when he "befriended Chavez".  It has been downhill since. Chavez under a reprieve as Uribe's parting shot was exposing all FARC training camp inside Venezuela, played nice and stroked Santos ego in that he could indeed bring the FARC to serious negotiations after having been the Uribe's defense minister in charge of blowing them out. Which he nearly did, by the way and may have been able to complete had he wanted to. Under the excuse that Venezuela's role was crucial to the eventual success of Havana's Santos-FARC talks, the Santos administration made all sorts of concessions to the Venezuelan regime, most despicably by handing over to Caracas drug kingpins and political exiles.

Sure enough the FARC is playing Santos through and though. Its first success was to force Santos into a difficult reelection. This conservative, liberal right president has had to ally himself to the fading left of Colombia to get reelected and thus he has unnecessarily promoted its recovery. After reelection the FARC has become even more belligerent, and now it is trying to use the border crisis offering itself as the best guarantor against contraband and the alleged paramilitary infiltration inside Venezuela, as if Venezuela was not the main promoter of paramilitary groups like the colectivos, pranes .....

How can Santos and his ever more idiotic looking foreign minister Holguin whose appeasing smiles and seduction to Maduro are now blowing up to her face have lost the political coup offered to them on a silver tray?

First, the delayed response. Uribe was promptly at the border with Venezuela while Holguin sought a "meeting" with the Venezuelan foreign minister, the insufferable hack sister of Caracas mayor and inventor of all electoral frauds. While Holguin was giving Rodriguez a propaganda platform to accuse Colombia in its own country, the images of Colombians wading the river Tachira with their scarce belongings made front pages.

Santos waited for a week to go to the border and this late in the game he had to go populist and offer all sorts of goodies to calm down the natives. But it was too late, Colombian public opinion was united, and not around Santos. Even ex president Gaviria questioned the participation of Colombia to fakes like UNASUR who clearly do not wish to offend whatsoever the susceptibility of Maduro and co.  To add insult to injury Maduro kept giving fake handouts in Venezuela, declared falsely that scarcity was over thanks to his policies in Tachira, threatened to push the border blockade all along the Venezuelan border and flew to Vietnam. Cabello on his own decided to stir a little bit of trouble with the Brazil border attacking garimpeiros as if did not know they  had been creating ecological devastation since Chavez came to office!

I think that we are assisting to the undoing of Obama and Santos foreign schemes. I, for one, dearly hope that this is all part of a master plan to muzzle once and for all the rogue regimes of Havana and Caracas. But I am not holding my breath whatsoever.

Luckily for Santos and Obama, they do not have to worry about reelection anymore. Others will sort out the debris.

And it all came to that

Almost as a rule the end of revolutions and their ersatz is equally appalling. True revolutions like the French one (9 Thermidor) or the Russian one (Kulak starvation) have a moment that mark the end of ideal and the bloody start of a very long path to stability. Ersatz are lucky if they have a semi grand moment but as a rule end up in ridicule if they are lucky (Peron). But some end up in infamy, betraying any possible justification they had at their start. This is the case of this fakest of all revolutions, the bolivarian of Chavez which is slowly petering its way to infamy.

Closed border, people in check. Why?

I suppose some would make a case for April 2002 as "the grand moment". But it was not, a mere failed coup and a failed Restoration which yielded a shit faced Chavez that decided to surrender to the Castros in Cuba to get what he really wanted: life presidency. It worked, he died in office.

That first farcical but how damaging moment of April 2002 got a pricey oil enhanced stint which led to the 2007 referendum failure. For me it was the end, no revolution can survive when its idealistic and creative base deserts it, or rather turns against it as Venezuelan campus were never fervent Chavez supporters, even in his first couple of years.

Student and his bookcase?

From 2007 on it was all predictable: the pseudo revolution morphed into an autocratic regime that added insult to injury by becoming a narco state and henceforth the most corrupt and violent country in the Americas. By far.

I thought that we had seen it all, that we had accepted the fact that under Maduro we entered the outright dictatorship phase of the regime. A cross between Peron, sans Evita, with the Burma never ending military thuggery. Heck, with Leopoldo Lopez and Maria Corina Machado we are even getting a bi-cephalic version of Aung San Suu Kyi.

But no, we had to go into such infamy as creating a refugee crisis worse than the one in Europe right now, worse because even if much smaller it is absolutely unjustified, absolutely unnecessary, invented in full by dark conspiracies and likely drug war cartels fighting for turf control. These dark forces have had no qualm to use a state conflict to solve their own internal problems, harking back to imperial models of having the natives fight it ought for the honor of being directly under the toe of the colonial master. Chavismo there cannot even match the epic of Tlaxcala or the complexity of Plassey.

That is not all. There are no people drowning in the Mediterranean but poor Colombians wading in a shallow river with the lone bag they were allowed to carry. No real fences like in Hungary but a mere cattle guard here and there.

Even in infamy chavismo is so tacky, so venial, so corrupt that it cannot create a moment of epic or even true outrage. The word is taking its time in condemning the regime abuses on the Colombians it unjustly expels because they are mesmerized by the fact the regime is seriously wanting them to believe that these scared house wives wading dirty water are the cause of all of Venezuela trouble.

But one thing is not missing, fascism. In addition of all sort of promoted tweet support the regime has even produced Colombians supporting the abuse. A tropical Nazi paradise cannot be that far away.

Refugee camp and a meager army to push them away, not even
allowing them to go the next bridge...

And so it all came up to that. A revolution that claimed to unite a whole continent for the liberation of all of its people against real or imaginary empires ends up in a whimper, ostracizing, jewing up a population that cannot be distinguished at all from the one across the border or from the one they have been living among since there is historical memory.

Apartheid worse, R on houses that have been "revised" searched.
Some have a D for scheduled demolition.

Chavismo is now, like its founder, a corpse. We just need to find an undertaker.

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First video Maduro says horrors about Colombians and states that Colombians come to Venezuelan Bolivarian Paradise just like from Africa migrants go to Europe. Pathetic, the more so he is from Cucuta so we have there his subconscious betraying him in not wanting to be Colombian, like some kid in Austria, you know.



In this one the goebbelian frau Rodriguez says that all is an invention, that nothing is going on at the border, that the scenes are invented. Both videos promptly posted by the people of Maria Corina Machado apparently FROM international footage of news. Footage that is of course not shown on Venezuelan TV.