loading...
Showing posts with label totalitarianism. Show all posts
Showing posts with label totalitarianism. Show all posts

Tuesday, 1 November 2016

48 hours of dialogue and it ain´t looking good. Unless...

I am not opposed to political dialogue. It has proven its worth through history. It could, on paper, be a good thing for Venezuela. I do not think it is because in historical dialogues either side had something to lose and did not want to lose it all. Here chavismo is of the scorched earth orthodoxy and they prefer to bring everything down before surrendering any piece of power. Reasons are multiple, from the knowledge of many of them ending up in jail were the regime to collapse to simply the castroite brain washing of a particularly virulent totalitarian nature, of tyrants long used to living out of thin air in a island cum concentration camp system.

In short, I believe in dialogue when there is the knowledge that both sides have something to lose or win, and when there is a dutiful respect on the symbols attached to such difficult endeavor. Visibly the first criteria is not met here, and the second criteria, on symbolism, was f....d up from the start as I reported Sunday night. Thus let's see what the first 48 hours have brought.

First, the division of the opposition that existed all along became quite obvious. Clearly the fear of the regime was a thin glue that is meting fast as the regime pretends to dole out some goodies to those behaving nice (I am looking at you, UNT, who had the chutzpah to send totally discredited Timoteo Zambrano to the dialogue table!). Certainly Maduro wasted no time in exploiting the opening and tonight went on attacking and demanding jail against the remaining leadership of Voluntad Polar. For good measure he also called Capriles a drug addict. I suppose it takes one to know one, but I digress. I have put the infamous video of Maduro tonight at the end of this entry if someone has the stomach for it. We must note that Chuo Torrealba came strongly to defend the opposition union and Voluntad Popular, but I am waiting for UNT to do the same.

More worrisome is the reaction of the opposition followers where we find a HUUGGEE chunk so outraged by sitting down for a dialogue, any dialogue that it has sent into frenzy the keyboard warriors insulting Capriles, Torrealba et all in ways that remind me of chavista bots. But again I digress. The point is that the clumsy management of the dialogue, to qualify it generously as clumsy, is exacting quite a toll inside the opposition ranks. Note: a lot of those twitter/key board warriors are not going to lead open shirted, chest upfront, the march on Miraflores. But again, I digress, apologies.

Even though that negative mood was detectable already Monday the opposition today in the National Assembly called away two of its top anti regime agenda points: the trial against Maduro and the said march on Miraflores. There are merits for that: after all why would you march to overthrow a regime if you are sitting down talking to them? But maybe you could have prepared public opinion as early as yesterday. No?

So the regime can score so far the following: no recall election this year; the apparent blow out of the opposition; no trial for Maduro; no march on Miraflores; great photo ops for Maduro; a hapless if not outwardly complicit Vatican, US et al. Note that Thomas Shannon from State made a surprise visit today, as usual with no comments, and probably as usual with a bad outcome in the following days. When Shannon deals with Venezuela I start shivering in fear even if it is not Halloween. True, technically all the opposition initiatives are on the freeze until November 12 when it could all start again. But does anyone think that the unity of purpose will be recovered by then? Not me.

Since this is a dialogue surely the regime made a concession somewhere. A few political prisoners were released. 5 I think, it is not clear. And not the most notorious ones, And a few dozens were incarcerated in the preceding days anyway. So, Castro style, any release is always compensated for a new jailing, a constant prison population being a healthy tool to impress the populace. Note two interesting details: no Voluntad Popular prisoner released, while all the releases were done without judicial action proving that those unfortunate souls were mere hostages to the regime, jailed because I said so, released because I got bored with them (and quite frankly in the XXI century I cannot get away as easily with murder as any dictator could in the past century).

So far so bad.  Unless, my wild hope, it is all because the opposition inner sanctum knows something we do not know, something that it cannot say.  Maybe Maduro is about to resign?  Maybe his military are going to depose him? Maybe the inner sanctum was told to wait a couple of weeks more and all would be fine and dandy? Maybe they were told that as soon as the US election is settled Obama will send a gazillion marines, the exact number depending on the number of votes Hillary gets?

This late in the game outside UNT I do not think that any opposition leader could have been bought. There are in for the fight even though differences exist. So clearly there must be a reason, a positive reason why reasonable folks like Ramos Allup, Borges, Torrealba have swallowed hard in the past two days to sit down and call a two weeks truce. Heck, one can even hope that the "division" with Voluntad is a show to distract chavismo.

But I doubt it. I hope to be proven wrong. Give me some sign MUD!

---------------------------


Friday, 28 October 2016

7 ways to tell if a strike is a success

Today the opposition has called for a work stop for individuals. The regime is in full propaganda mode to claim that the move is a failure. The opposition claims it is a success. So here are 7 items to figure out whether it was a success

1- It is NOT a strike, nor a lock out. What the opposition did was to ask folks to stay put at home between 6 AM and 6 PM.


2- Whether a strike or a lock out or a stay-put, one fact is that it was called on Wednesday for Friday, not even 48 hours before it was supposed to start. A general movement of this nature is not easy to start, and it certainly require preparations so that adverse propaganda will be reduced to a minimum. In France where strikes are too regular an occurrence and where employees are highly trained at such activities, they are rarely called with less than a week notice.

3- You need to understand that the regime has used threats that it often brings to fruition. Never mind that fascist piglets like Diosdado Cabello have said they will seize whatever closes. So public employees will mostly show up for work. And many vulnerable stores/business will not close. To give you an example, my office is next to a small shopping center and this morning the NAZI-onal guard accompanied some agency to take pictures of the stores that did not open. (ADDED LATER: they made another inspection round at lunch time!)

4- Some business simply cannot close because the regime has long decided that certain sectors of the economy are of "public interest" and thus cannot do as they please. For example, all business dealing with food production or selling groceries or banks cannot close because, well, you know what will happen.

5- In addition business that work with perishables (agriculture, livestock, and the like) simply cannot stop. Period. The best they can do is to close the administrative offices but production cannot close, not even on Christmas day.

6- Other folks cannot close, like Emergency Rooms, hospital care for people that got surgery that week, etc...

7- And there is the nature of the Venezuelan. Many of us will do what they do everyday regardless of what happens outside. The bubble in which many live is truly astounding. Never mind those who say "heck, I am not working but it is a good opportunity for social visits, exercise, whatever" not realizing that their cars will be counted as activity.

So there you are, weigh carefully these parameters before you succomb to regime propaganda.

My take?  The more strident the propaganda the more successful the stay-put. That gauge never fails.

As far as I can tell it is more of a success than what I thought it would be. Heck, even people like me thought it was an error to call such actions so soon!

Wednesday, 26 October 2016

The rebellion has started

What else could the regime expect today after the annulation of all elections? Or is is it what the regime hoped for? And will it still be of any use for the regime this late a confrontation?

A fraction of the river of people in Caracas today October 27 2016

What has happened today is transcendent, on many aspects.


The causes are the naked abuse of the regime which has refused to recognize the duly elected majority of the National Assembly. A regime that has refused to recognize the constitutional right to call for a a recall election. A regime that has suspended all elections until they decide to hold them again, someday, when conditions are good for them. A regime that has decided to assault the national assembly. And of course, most importantly, a regime that has left its population with not enough food, not enough medicine and not enough money to buy from the little that is left to find.

In not even 48 hours the opposition managed to organize spontaneously what is probably the largest NATION WIDE protest ever in our history. If the Caracas one was not as large than the one on September, it remains quite impressive as per the picture above in front of the military base of La Carlota, without even bothering to ask for permission tot he regime. Think about that for a second. The opposition simply called it and people came. What makes the day noteworthy is that in many cities of the countries huge opposition rallies materialized at the same time, resulting in a major show of strength for the opposition, duly noted even on French TV tonight.

The only thing chavismo could manage was a handful of  "supporter" public employees at the gate of Miraflores. They did not even tried to have some thing significant, they knew that they would not be able to fill up the buses with enough people to carry, no matter how much pressure and/or cash to attend they would provide.

However what they did was to repress. Not in Caracas, mind you, where all eyes are, but inside the country where they think that the world watches less and where they assume that people can be sacred easier to get back in line. We had dozens of arrests and injuries during the day, with an extremely worrying high rate of rubber bullets shot in the face of people, as close to the eyes as possible. A vicious attack, without doubt inspired by the fascist ways of repression the regime imported from Cuba.

The results of all of this are varied and not encouraging.

The first victim is the carelessly dialogue called by the Vatican next Sunday, a clumsiness that surprises everyone. Then again the US and the Vatican have always had in mind solving the Cuban situation thorough Venezuelan pockets never caring much for the fate of the Venezuelan opposition. It will remain one of the biggest failure of US or Vatican diplomacy, to underestimate the level of despair AND resolve of the Venezuelan opposition, a mistake that could cost Obama's"legacy" a big chunk. Never mind Francis himself though he still can recover better than the US.

The second result is that the regime has got in overdrive, invoking article 323 of the constitution, a preamble of sorts to suspend the constitution altogether. Except that ironically the decisions taken out of 323 have a validity only if the chair of the national assembly signs them. Not that it matters much for the regime, of course. But that seems a little paltry after all the other violations of the Constitution by the regime that justify in full all that the National Assembly has decided to undertake. These are also in agreement with the constitution, and include removing illegally appointed justices and electoral board, citing Maduro for investigation on many issues, etc...

The third result may be the most momentous. After today's true show of strength that not even the regime propaganda is taking down with its usual cynicism, the opposition has called for a general strike on Friday and a march on Miraflores Palace on November 3. That is, either the regime decides to give concrete and real responses NOW or the insurrection not only will start but probably could not be controlled by the opposition.

I wrote, and many others, that the regime sought violence as a way to sustain its power. Hence so many provocations. But violence is not necessarily the solution for the regime if it did not happen at the right time. Now, with a long suffering country, the violence that the regime is unleashing seem to scare many of them actually, as a demon that they are not sure they can control to their advantage. In 2014 it worked and gave the regime two more years but this time around conditions are different.

--------------------------------

What follows below does not quite belong tot he the stream of the text above. call it additional info.

First it was my own attendance to the march rally in the picture above.  There is my two videos on Instagram




The second one is a flag sales guy. What is remarkable is that he was openly selling 7 star flags, those of the pre Chavez era. Quite a symbol that those are now the flags made and sold at marches....



This was one of the marches across Venezuela. This one from Barquisimeto.



And a couple of videos on today's repression. You can clearly see how the police was facilitating the chavista storm troopers actions. Observe when the masked aggressor points at the window of the movie takers. Fascism. The real stuff.






And to finish all, in case you doubt how angry Venezuelans are becoming at the regime...











Sunday, 23 October 2016

Our Reichstag moment



This is the tropics, this is a banana republic. What else could one expect but the picture above which should be making a few international front pages tonight.


The assault was planned as a mob scene. There is even an intercepted audio that may suggest active military involvement, instead of guaranteeing the security of a special Sunday National Assembly session. Whatever it was, it had no spontaneity whatsoever. It was a group coming from "colectivos" which are nothing more than a cross between S.S. and Cuban "comités de defensa de la revolución". The whole led by Caracas mayor, Jorge Rodriguez, who managed to look more the dissociated psychopath than ever. There is an actual doubt as to whether he was running the show. It is probable that at some level he realized that the regime did not need further discredit this week... Then again....

At any rate, eventually the National Assembly managed to vote a resolution and it is a a red line. Crossed by the regime, by the way. Using the article 333 of the constitution (the 350 for outright rebellion is reserved for soon enough, I suppose) the National Assembly has decided that Maduro has perpetrated a coup and thus the Assembly needs to do the following:
- Demand that international organizations take notice and apply the necessary sanctions
- That Maduro should be brought for trial in front of the Assembly for the constitution violations and his own questioned right to be president
- Renew all the powers that helped Maduro commit the coup, namely the electoral Board CNE and the constitutional court TSJ
- Demand that the army, once and for all, decides which side of the constitution they stand

So now the regime has either to close down the National Assembly, or Maduro needs to resign, or, as the Church has apparently suggested, everybody resigns and we vote on EVERY elected official.

My bet is on the first one.
------
SIDE NOTES

1- For the records, even Venezuelan dictatorships did not dare to assault Congress the way colectivos did today. The last time something like that happened in Venezuela was on January 28 1848 when Monagas, an ELECTED constitutional president, decided to do without an opposition and sent a mob to Congress.

2- For some obscure reason I counted at least two rainbow flags in the mob. It is of course possible that the lumpen colectivos confuse such flag with the multicolored flag used by the Bolivian natives in their rallies and feasts (and own revolutions).  But I think the gay theme applies. Now, besides the fact that these people do not represent me whatsoever, nor I am willing to bet the immense majority of gay people in Venezuela, I cannot fathom how can they, at this point, support the Chavez regime. Under that regime Venezuela has become a most backward place in our continent. Not only the 1999 did not write in the gay marriage but this one has been approved by many countries since while the regime sat on it.  There is no real legislation against hate crimes. There is no rights for spouses (I can vouch for the difficulties that this causes with my partner disease). HIV medication has become scarce and new treatments available anywhere are not making it to Venezuela. And of course, there is constant homophobic language of the regime.

And yet, there was that guy waving the rainbow flag in a hallway of the National Assembly. Goes to tell you how easy it is to make idiotic through propaganda the defenseless poor lumpen, going beyond the Stockholm syndrome.




PS: looking closely at the flags they do not ring quite like the rainbow flag. There may have been the identification flag of a given colectivo?. I am floating this in case some body has information. At any rate, these are poorly executed flags and Venezuelan gay people should not allow idiots use our symbols for such objectives as killing democracy.



Sunday, 31 July 2016

When the statist state runs out of ideas (and other's people money)

AS expected the rise of general Vladimir Padrino as co-president of Maduro has changed nothing. After all Venezuela has been a dictatorship for a while, of a new XXI century kind certainly, but a dictatorship nevertheless. It was all just a formality.

Padrino cannot succeed in his attempt at putting food on the table of Venezuelans. His multiple inspections, in combat drag, of food producers have revealed no scandal so far, no hoarding, no lack of manufacturing will. The reason why there is no food production in Venezuela is simple, it is because there is nothing to make food out of.

For better or for worse, and with chavista bred officers it is likely for worse, Padrino seems to have been put there to prepare, or chair, a transition out of Maduro's mess. We already have the first signs on how doomed this might be as clashes between radicals and pragmatists, military and civilians have come to the forefront this past week.


One, for example, has been setting up a system for forced labor. I kid you not. A decree states that the regime can draft workers from private agribusiness to work for up to 60 days (and 60 more if needed) in the state agricultural undertakings. That is right, I repeat, workers from agribusiness, even myself, could be forced to go to work where the regime decides. I am not insulting the intelligence of readers discussing the historical precedents that say that forced labor never ended up in something positive, and always brought different levels of tragedy. No, the details are more interesting in a decree that cannot be applied.

First, there is no provision as to what would happen to a worker refusing to go to a state run facility (employers MUST part with the employees drafted while preserving their social benefits and their penalty does not need to be expressed since we know by experience what the regime does to us). Second, those business that still produce something could well come to a stop if they lose their trained personnel. Where would be the food relief in the country?.

One chavista union official quickly went to say that no one would be forced to serve against their will. But that is quite hollow when you read the decree where only different forms of expressing obligations can be found (I highlighted them in the scan from the decree on the right, if you can read Spanish).

I find it interesting that besides being an extraordinary sloppy job of a decree it is also so direct and self assuming of its importance. If you ask me it is from the hand of a military turned bureaucrat, used to give orders and be obeyed. But in real life that does not work.

Another example of the confusion reigning inside the regime comes from a "debate" between the head of the state oil monopoly PDVSA and Elias Jaua, a representative of the more radicalo-communist wing of the regime. It all started with del Pino saying that the nationalization of the services of the oil industry in Maracaibo Lake by Chavez in 2009 was a mistake. It is a taboo in Venezuela: oil industry should belong to the state. At least some good sense had prevailed in letting competitive services manage a large chunk of the oil industry, usually the more delicate work that required nimbleness, something that was not a given even in PDVSA best days.

In short what del Pino was suggesting is that the private sector should not be banned outright from Venezuela's oil industry. Something very pragmatic since oil output has been dropping after 2009 and that with current oil prices and Venezuela bankruptcy we do not even have the money to keep the current level of production for much longer. That is anathema to the radical left that is unable to come to grips that the Chavez and Cuban models have failed, that the country is broke and that we have run out of food and medicine. In their minds there is a course traced by Chavez (Plan de la Patria) and it should be followed, period. Elias Jaua even goes one more stating that the said plan was discussed and voted upon and turned into law (it was an emanation of Chavez and thus was never properly discussed to begin with, and a monstrosity to read by the way).

And thus we see the plain division between the "civilian" groups of chavismo, between those who think that something should be done and those that think nothing should be done, that we are all doing fine and that the only thing needed are yet more regulations, more controls, and now forced labor.

It is interesting to note that even if one were to agree with the need for some strong initiative to restart production these come too late for Venezuela. When Chavez came to office in 1999 there was already a strong tendency for the state to rule over everything. On that aspect Chavez simply did one better, pushing the system to its last consequences, benefiting of disproportionate and undeserved oil rent to smooth things over and thus pretending that the private sector was not needed. Now there are voices inside chavismo that want to re discuss the model, and there are even admissions that only the private sector can take us out of the mess, After all, the forced labor decree is simply a way for the regime to force technicians from the private sector to work for derelict state companies. This is an admission, if any, that the public sector is incompetent, at least on that front to be charitable.

Saturday, 11 June 2016

Understanding the political moment

I have been back for two weeks now and events are just unfolding too fast for me to write about them, considering the depression that arises from coming back to what has become a hell hole. Let's just order our thoughts together, shall we?
L'air du temps:
Borges getting his nose broken

One way is to look at the main hard data and its effects. The reader on its own will be able to draw the general picture after the fact.


Jail for you

The driving force in this mega crisis is that under the concept of world justice and transparency a few dozens of the higher up in the regime know they will never be able to find peace and solace once out of office. Their fate for them is jail, tomorrow, in a decade, it does not matter. If they do not die first they will end up in jail. They know that.


See, they have stolen too much money, abused too many human rights, played too much on the drug traffic front. They are doomed and thus under no circumstance they can surrender power. Period. They will do what it takes to remain in office. Whatever. Second period.

I am not asking you to understand this, I am asking you to get this. If you do not get the implications of the above you cannot make sense of what is going on in Venezuela these days. Might as well stop reading now.

No food while we wait for oil price to rise

The awful economic crisis that is now open comment world wide has not its origin in the low oil prices. After all Venezuela has had downfalls in oil price before and we managed. For that matter the first two years of Chavez rule had oil price way lower than they are today and yet shelves were full of food and he did not need to create food distribution systems like those of today which reek of corruption and political apartheid while being ineffective, even in their political goals.

The real, the only reason for the food and medicine shortages today has been a more than dismal management of the economy over the last 17 years, not to mention its willful destruction to the profit of the new corrupt oligarchies of military origin. The productive apparatus of the country has been destroyed through a system of price controls, political harassment to business and corrupt importations to sabotage local production. Today, even if magically all restrictions were lifted, if security was magically restored to producers and workers, it would take at least 5 years for Venezuela to be able to insure food for its people at subsistance level. Period.

There is a clear understanding now that this situation can only be solved with a removal from office of the current leadership. The proposed means may differ from the opposition to radical left of Marea Socialisa, but all agree that as long as Maduro is in office he is unable/unwilling to take any real measure to face down the crisis. In fact, Maduro's political faction is trying to use the crisis as a way to control  the country by deciding who gets food. The social explosion risks are worrying the army while at the same time they risk to wipe out the remnants of the private sector that will be needed to rebuild.

The saddest thing is that the regime puts its salvation on a return to high oil prices, which are at best for late 2017 when it would be too late for the country. But see if they care.

International paralysis

What is complicating the crisis is the inability of the rest of the world to come together to put adequate pressure on the regime. Or to support it for that matter.

During his tenure with a deep oil check book that Chavez had no problem using cash for corruption and waste on political patronage overseas, Thus we have, for example, small shitty island nations of the Caribbean which have no problem letting Venezuelans starve for their petty gains (note that neither Europe of the US have the will to help and put pressure on these islands, hypocrisy everywhere).

But countries that should know better are mired in contradictions. Let's start with the US which amazingly think that helping a Castro transition is less costly in the long run that to put pressure on the Venezuelan regime. Why? Because the US hopes that Venezuela will foot the bill for Cuba's regeneration. That this, a now turned idiotic policy may create two problems for the US where it had only one. This seems not to flicker in the outgoing administration who seems now resigned to let whoever is sworn in in January 2017 deal with it.

That or the US business hopes to pick clean the bones of Venezuela after the debacle. All is possible.

Another pathetic case is the fast unraveling of Argentin's Mauricio Macri support for the Venezuelan cause. 6 months ago Macri was dancing on his election victory stage with Leopoldo Lopez wife Lilian Tintori. Now for reasons that are not clear to any one, and probably not even to Macri, it is Argentina who seems to sabotage any bite in possible OAS resolutions/sanctions against the regime. Whatever reasons Macri may have, they are so far failing him badly and he is looking like a fool. Heck, even Susana Malcorra were his mistress in addition to his foreign secretary could not explain the blunders.

Where the voters are

All of this is enough to create a potent crisis brew. But the debacle of the pre-recall election maneuvers was a wake up call for a regime that has grossly overestimated its real support. Actually, make that a dramatic wake up call for a regime that has lost its political flair. Apparently the regime truly thought that in the country of Tascon extortion records, official blackmail and indentured social programs the opposition would have all the trouble of the world to gather 1% of the electorate to sign up for a recall election. It got 8 %. In three days. And could have gotten 20% with a couple more of days and advance notice.

This has been the trigger for the current paranoia. Since early May the regime has realized that they are electorally doomed, for the time being at the very least. No elections whatsoever can be held in what was under Chavez a plebiscitary system. In fact, as far as Maduro is concerned, we probably cannot even have elections for dog-catcher, ever.

All the regime maneuvers since mid May are designed to avoid an election until next year, in particular a Recall Election. In fact the regional elections are probably going to be annulled any time soon as the regime is certain to loose way more than half of the state houses. The Army certainly cannot accept that so many ex-military now turned corrupt governors may be democratically unseated. But I digress.

While the regime finds a way to ease our transition into fully developed election free dictatorship it needs to avoid a Recall Election on Maduro this year. All excuses are valid, even the stupidest ones. I am not going to narrate what the electoral board CNE is doing in detail. Suffice to mention the latest incident where the CNE has voided the signature of 600.000 folks on absurd technicalities. The perversity and outright provocation was clearly underscored by the discovery that many opposition politicians who signed on camera had their signature annulled. Capriles, for one, the main promoter of the recall election, had his form annulled because it was not clear whether the form spelled Maduro or Madoro. You cannot make up things like that. And to add insult to injury Capriles cannot fix the "mistake" while the regime got yet another week prolongation for those who wished to have their signature taken away. And with the Tascon method of blackmail you can be sure that a few are going to blink and revert their name while those who want to add theirs cannot do so.

Prognosis

I personally hope, for charity, that the CNE intention was provocation rather than sloppiness. But it may well carry a steep dose of sloppiness in the methods chosen to void a recall election. The regime feels so cornered, so weak, that it is acting on reflex, on survival instinct. Thus the legality, or even basic common sense of its measures do not matter anymore. We are past the time of fig leaves.

The fact of the matter is that the economic depression has been getting worse and this week we saw major riot trouble in Petare and Catia, two zones which should be, on paper, chavista strongholds. But people are hungry. And I mean, hungry. And no matter what Argentina as a fool, or the shitty Caribbean island states may try, the OAS may be about to apply the Democratic Charter. That or Venezuela being booted out of Mercosur. Whichever comes first, for starters.

The truly big question here is whether the army will accept to pay the price of political repression, the last remaining option for the regime.

Some, like general Zavarce seem ready. He deliberately had his men push Representative Borges toward a crowd of colectivos on the pay roll of Caracas mayor Jorge Rodriguez. They did not kill Borges but they did break his nose, probably for lack of time. All is now in the open on the Thursday assault.

Others like Cliver Alcala are not on board anymore even if his name is linked to narco traffic.

The decision on a recall election rests there, in what the army will decide. And for that matter the decision whether Maduro remains president. See, the problem is not how to remove Maduro, this is actually quite easy once a political agreement is reached and he is made to resign. No election needed. Maduro is not ruling anymore, he is the front man. Thus the problem is truly not how to get rid of Maduro but who to put in his place.

That is the Gordian knot.

------------------------------------------------------------------
Additional material

Observe the goonery look of the colectivos on chavista payroll. Again, such things cannot be made up. Do not accuse me of profiling!




Sunday, 5 June 2016

Scenes of a bitter return

Warning: absolutely non politically correct post follows (á la Trump?)
But real.

---------------------------------------------------------------------


I am coming up from the airport.  Reaching the curb from a grocery store not too far away from home I notice the food line that reaches a crossing that it never reached before. Think 6 blocks.

Since there is traffic I can observe the line. Not only these people are not from the area, but they look like goons and thugs. They are, to tell you the truth, scary. I grab the camera to film but the light goes green.

Down the hill I arrive at the store. No line there. There are plenty of cops and the line has been in fact pushed back by them two blocks away. Which explains why I found it so long. The explanation? There was a looting attempt by people who come from far away from the neighborhood.

I suppose it is just a matter of time the locals decide to loot first least these "bachaqueros" take all of their food quota first?

Welcome home Kotter.

----------------------------------------

In my first few days at home I notice a dramatic change. There are now lines ALWAYS at any of the grocery stores of the area. Whether things arrive is irrelevant, there is a crowd, always the same type of crowd from some far starved/bachaquero lumpen that have put the area under siege. They leave around 5 PM so they can make it back to their homes before night fall.

After all, they are equally victims of crime, the more so if they back home in the dark with some food.

Oh, and yes!  These unfortunate people look as wretched, as lumpen as they looked 17 years ago when Chavez was elected. There you go with your XXI century socialism.

------------------------------------

My cleaning lady is upset and scared, and near tears when she tells me the stories.

In the past three weeks the area has become very unsafe in day time. People that walk the streets are now getting mugged broad daylight. And she has more trouble than ever to get food.  Why?

The invasion of bachaqueros in the area follows a clear modus operandi.

They arrive in "busetas", those worn down mini vans or mini bus that can carry up to 20 people, more if necessary... These unload the bachaqueros in front of a given store. The group arrives and breaks to the front of the line threatening as needed the locals, who terrified give them sway, the more so when home made weaponry is shown (chuzos like those made in Venezuelan jails). Sometimes more busetas arrive when from some magical knowledge they learn that this particular store will get more supplies than usual. There is indeed deep internal corruption links with some of the employees of these grocery stores. They get their cut of the loot.

Remember that what bachaqueros buy is for resale at bloated prices. That is their job, stand in line every day and find more than what they need so as to make their income out of black market prices. there are no other jobs available for them in chavista Venezuela.

So you may have different groups of bachaqueros holding the line (there are inter bachaquero fights reported by the locals who flee the scene). But all within a group need not to stand in line. After all with an SMS they can quickly come back as soon as a delivery truck is spotted. So what do these do? They scour the neighborhood to track down solitary walkers, isolated cars, and the like. Crime rises. No way around it since the scarce cops that Baruta town hall can afford as budgets shrink are not enough to keep order at the front of the line.

My cleaning lady tells me that know she leaves at 4AM to get on line in the vain hope sometimes that she will beat the bachaqueros. And sometimes, if she got significant stuff she is forced to take a cab back home. A cab, needless to say, that is a heavy burden on her budget.

Poor people stealing from poor people since people like me either do not consume much of the basic price controlled staples (starch/oil) or can afford black market (up to a point that is).

-----------------------------------------------------

So a few days ago I am having lunch at the fast food court of the Tolon mall with somebody visiting and that wants to know more about Venezuela.

I am having a chicken sandwich and yuca breaded sticks (no potatoes so manioc will do, quite well actually). Yes, food courts are still reasonably supplied. They are expensive and less people can afford them. Thus if you can afford, the supply exists for the privileged still hanging on......

The food court is on the top of the mall and yet now beggarly characters do manage to get up there (mall budgets cannot afford guards as they should, nor do the guards would care or be able to do much about it anyway).

One comes to our table and asks money for food. Annoyed at the interruption and out of cash I try to wave him away. He points out to my yuca sticks and ask for one. Without thinking about it I grab one with my fingers and handle it to him. He picks it and goes away eating it.

This is how damaged we have all become after 17 years, all, including myself.

-----------------------------------------------

Last Friday there were the first food riots about 4 blocks from Miraflores Palace as the regime has decided to grab the increasingly scarcer controlled items and to reserve them to their followers. Exclusively, through the already infamous CLAP, the new violent sect being bred to enforce a political apartheid in Venezuela. Holomodor is it already called on the net.

I may be damaged, but clearly the regime holders are now beyond any redemption.

Friday, 25 March 2016

Karadzic para luminarias chavistas

Hoy nos enteramos que el serbiobosnio Radovan Karadzic ha sido sentenciado en la corte internacional de La Haya por crímenes de lesa humanidad y genocidio en las matanzas de Srebenica. La justicia tardo 20 años en llegar para los musulmanes de Bosnia, pero llegó. Amen que la sentencia coincide con una era de injustificada ira contra los musulmanes decentes por parte de gente como Trump y Cruz, o los políticos populistas de extrema derecha en Europa. Es justicia para los musulmanes de Bosnia que eran en esa época, posiblemente, los mas civilizados, los mas a tono con los valores de democracia hasta que un nacionalismo de corte fascista se empecino en destruirlos. Los crimines de Karadzic contribuyeron en algo al extremismo actual del islam radicalizado.


Pero más allá de la condena de Karadzic, sin querer hacer paralelos ridículos con la situación en Venezuela, buena es la ocasión para que algunos personeros del chavismo entiendan que crimines contra la humanidad no prescriben y que en algún momento la justicia llegará. No se puede robar tanto, arruinar tanto a un país, abusar tanto de su gente sin que en algún momento hable la justicia. Y si la justicia de Venezuela no habla, la de La Haya lo hará en su debido tiempo.

Todavía está a tiempo la jerarquía chavista de tomar los correctivos que sean necesarios para evitar que la justicia los condene a cadena perpetua como pasó hoy con Karadzic. Me conformo con listar abajo crimines potenciales o ya comprobados de algunos chavistas que deberían permitir entender la situación en la cual están, desde ya.

No voy a hablar de los narco traficantes de peso, casi todos militares, porque el volumen de tráfico de drogas por Venezuela solo fue posible por la aquiescencia del estamento militar. Para ellos ya hay cortes actuando. Pregúntenle a Carvajal que ya no podrá más nunca salir de Venezuela. Pregunten a los de la lista de Obama quienes según la miserable propaganda del régimen serian patriotas corderitos de dios, sin que nadie nos explique con veracidad como es que un vuelo de Air France cargo con centenares de kilos de cocaína, algo imposible sin fallas gravísimas de la seguridad de Maiquetia en manos de los militares.

Tampoco voy a hablar mucho de corrupción y de lavado de dinero. De eso también hay cortes pendientes. Preguntarle a Rincón en Houston a quien le fue negada la fianza porque se podía dar el lujo de perder los millones que tiene en EE.UU. ya que tiene aún más millones fuera de los EE.UU. Preguntarle al que está ya sentenciado por desfalcar a PDVSA por los ahorros de sus empleados. Y así muchos mas en la mira.

Los que vienen al caso son los que serán condenados por permitir, crear, impulsar una situación política que nos está conduciendo hacia una represión masiva, o a una guerra civil.

Por ejemplo tomemos a los jueces alcahuetas y corruptos del TSJ. Empecemos, hay que empezar en algún sitio, por Luisa Estela Morales, culpable de tantas violaciones constitucionales que permitieron establecer la actual dictadura. ¿No sabia ella lo que estaba haciendo? Recordemos que esa mujer tuvo la desfachatez de decir que la separación de poderes era un mal asunto. Sumemos los jueces ya huidos a EE.UU (¿dónde más?) y que han revelado diáfanamente la corrupción moral de la justicia en Venezuela. Agreguemos a jueces ya con prontuario policial y que apenas designados ya presiden la sala de casación penal, en un claro signo que la justicia será lo que decida el régimen, jueces que ya no tienen nada que perder y que por lo tanto se prestarán a firmar la sentencia que sea para permitir al régimen durar un día más. ¿Justicia y derechos?

Prosigamos por los aupadores de oficio, los que tienen una carrera política dedicada a crear divisiones, a amenazar a quien no comulgue con el régimen. Muchos hay allí pero tomemos dos en particular. Uno es un psiquiatra ya reconocido como psicópata y alcalde de Caracas. Otro que además de estar señalado en corrupción y narcotráfico también es el responsable de organizar agresión a diputados en el propio recinto de la Asamblea Nacional, llamar a la violencia y tener un programa televisivo done agrede verbalmente, difama, ataca y amenaza con toda impunidad. Gente como Rodríguez y Cabello ya tienen su puesto asegurado en la lista de los que tendrán que rendir cuenta más temprano que tarde.

Hablemos de los que por su empeño en ocultar su mala gestión están condenando el país a una posible hambruna, a un posible colapso epidemiológico. Si bien mala gestión se detecta hasta en los países mas desarrollados, lo que denota en Venezuela es la saña que agregan esos personeros a sus actuaciones. Tengo en mente ministros de Sanidad o alimentación.

Hablar de la violación de los derechos humanos seria ya tarea demasiado larga para esta entrada. Con solo mencionar la Lista de Tascón y la represión del 2014 ya tenemos con que enjuiciar a varios civiles y militares.

Hablando de militares el caso de Vladimir Padrino es interesante. Todavía no se puede decir si sus actos justificarían denunciarlo en La Haya. Pero de lo que si estamos seguro es que de apoyar la represión solicitada por el régimen el podría encabezar la lista con sobrados méritos. Otro veredicto de culpabilidad pocos días antes de el de Karadzic fue en contra del jefe militar congoles Bemba. Es notable que en este caso Bemba fue condenado a pesar de que el no estuvo presente en el lugar de los hechos. Solamente por mandar tropas a la República Centroafricana y desentenderse del potencial de violencia fue suficiente para condenarlo. Es notable también que Bemba fue arrestado cuando ya estaba en el exilio, demostrando que ganando o perdiendo el juego politico no ofrece protección alguna contra delitos que no prescriben. Así como Padrino hay muchos jerarcas del ejercito que deberían pensarlo un poco mas antes de seguir ordenes indebidas, que posiblemente ni siquiera vienen de nuestro pais.

Acortemos esta lista mencionando al que dirige al circo aunque no sea su dueño. Al rechazar la ayuda de la OMS frente a la crisis de salud de Venezuela el presidente Maduro ya se pone a pie de cruzar la línea entre la incompetencia criminal y el genocidio. Y no es lo único que ameritaría un juicio en contra de él que sin duda alguna resultaría en una sentencia de muchísimos años en alguna cárcel del mundo.

Sugiero que los que pueden hacer todavía algo para detener la marcha a la catástrofe, lo hagan. No tienen por qué pagar las culpas de estos irresponsables hundiendo al país tratando de salvar su vil pellejo. Los únicos que pueden hacer eso son la porción del PSUV que no quiere terminar de hundirse en la infamia para salvar a los que cometieron crimines que esos chavistas no tienen por qué pagar. Incluyamos los pocos militares que robaron poco y no se metieron en narcotráfico y que no desean mancharse de la sangre de la represión que se les va a pedir, sangre que no se puede lavar nunca de las manos. No nos olvidemos de los funcionarios públicos que todavía pueden renunciar estrepitosamente y hablar aunque sea desde el otro lado de la frontera. Todavía está en esos grupos la posibilidad de hacer algo para no entrar en las listas que se mandarán algún día hasta La Haya. Esperemos que traten de evitar un viaje a La Haya, aunque sea solo como testigos vergonzosos de la infamia.

Sunday, 6 March 2016

I faced fascism

I have been the victim of a robbery. I am physically fine but morally deeply wounded. Not from the material loss, although my wedding band was stolen as my partner faces deadly cancer, which by itself is enough to send me to a dark place.

What truly did me in was the way it happened.


I was driving, exiting the Carcas main highway at the El Recreo level. To avoid a pot hole as I slowed down I swerved somewhat and I scared a motorbike that was passing me at full speed on the left. The guy honked pissed off and I had the misfortune to raise my hand (no flip) in a "what have you me do?" gesture. That was too much for him. He blocked me and forced me to pull on the side in an area which unfortunately has no pedestrian traffic.

He acted very much like a police officer and I thought that I was going to get a fine, or would have to bribe him. But something was different. The guy was dressed all in black, including gloves, kevlar like coat, with the thickness that bullet proof gives you. A helmet that looked particularly sturdy. And no badges on him nor plates on his bike. So the thought that this was something else crept fast.

He made me open the passengers window and the conversation that followed was all about terror. I just cannot remember exactly such was the impression but this is the content.

First he said that he was "un funcionario" which in the context means that he was some kind of guy working in state security. Then he said that he could shoot me if he wanted and asked me if I knew that, if I was truly aware of that..........

Three times during the conversation, for lack of a better word, he would remind me that he could shoot me at will, implying clearly that this would not affect him in anyway.

He tried to figure out who I was and what I did but I choked on words so afraid that he could kidnap me of threaten my loved ones.

Then he said, "you know what, give me your ring". All always with a monotone cool voice, with a good choice of words. The guy had some education, he was not just a "malandro" or a "colectivo". In fact, as I thought later, part of his terror tactic was actually to speak to me with respect as he threatened me.

He could have asked for my cell phone, a major source of robbery these days. Or taken the three packs of dearly bought powder milk that I had on the seat and was taking to my SO. Or he could have called a pal to steal my car.

No, he was thinking about a way to hurt me and when he asked for my ring he knew he had me as IMMEDIATELY I thought about my SO. I tried to mumble something, to negotiate something else as instinctively I realized that this was not about robbery. He just became sterner, more icy cold. I had to hand him the ring and then he extended his hand forcing me to shake it as if we were good friends.

Then he left. And my car would not start... Finally it did, I made my way to the SO place where the nervous breakdown took place as you may expect. Me first apologizing in tears about losing the ring, until I realized that was exactly what that criminal wanted me to do, to feel guilty. Which made me recover fast.

Now, this was what we can call a clear fascist act, of the most abject totalitarian nature. A brutal show of force, for the sake of it, through crafted psychological torture. I use deliberately fascist over communist because if in the end the terror and the pain are the same, in a commie torture there is always a hint of legality, a hint of speaking in the name of someone else. For example when the guy started to talk he could have said that I should be more careful about annoying a Representative of "el pueblo" and then do the same threats and steal the ring. Or add a plain "you do not deserve that ring, you escualido".  No, this was just a "I am pissed at you and I could do things to you just because I can and nothing will happen to me even if you were to be able to report me. You are mine, kneel. And be thankful that I will only do this to you today".

I will go one step further. Since Hannah Arendt the concept of totalitarianism has somewhat evolved in an era of mass communication which makes psychological manipulation easier. What I saw was how communism has morphed into a special type of fascism, perhaps the truest form of totalitarianism. This comes from the Cuban training, I have no doubt. This is what happens in Cuba for those that are willing to see it as it is, a fascist country where terror is the glue. It is also what happens in Burma, or in some African states through a dose of tribalism. This, I am willing to bet, is not how things were managed in Chile or Argentina. Again, the end result is the same, the victim is fucked up. My point I guess is that more than killing, the real terror is in the idea of the possibility of killing at will and no one will care.

No one.

Having people like me walk around, or luminaries like Yoani Sanchez able to talk a little bit only reinforces the point: we are there at their suffering.



Monday, 4 January 2016

The regime tries to play hard ball

I suspect that the live coverage yesterday of the new National Assembly chair election by Globovision must have irked a lot the regime. That must account for today's news, at least in part.

First Ramos Allup, the elected chair, went today, 24 hours before he is to be seated, the N. A.
A chavista mob barred the entry and Ramos Allup had to retreat.

An ex-president of Bolivia tweeted that:
Good for the international public relations of the regime!

On other news the dismantling of ANTV, Venezuela's C-span wanna-be, has been confirmed. Workers showing up this morning found that they had been fired and that the equipment had been disassembled and/or taken away. Even Globovision is reporting it. This is quite remarkable because Globovision had been bought by chavista front men and that it showed yesterday live the election of Ramos Allup and today went to defend ANTV workers who have been fired BY THE REGIME. The reader should remember that the regime was accusing Ramnos Allup of wanting to fire ANTV workers but I guess they could not wait.

How can we read this?

First, the regime is clearly on panic mode. Doing these two measures a day before installing the new assembly, as many international witnesses are arriving and the whole world observes, is not good PR.

Second, there is true panic inside the regime that their stranglehold on communications is about to be broken. Never mind that NA interpellations of incompetent and corrupt ministers would be shown live on TV. So they blew up ANTV system in the hope that other broadcasters will not want to step in and repalce the NA cameras. Something that I suspect will fail: if Globovision is showing surprising hints of independence it is quite possible that the wind wanes at Venevision and Televen may do the same. Never mind that a quick reform of the communications law can do much more damage tot he image of the regime at home than poor ANTV could.

Wednesday, 9 December 2015

100 days of MUD

I suppose that the tradition of the cabalistic "first hundred days/measures/laws" comes from the first famous 100 days, the ones of Napoleon return to Elba which ended in Waterloo. The regime may want to ponder about that history tidbit, the more so that Waterloo bicentennial was celebrated earlier this year.


Last night we had the distinct feeling that Maduro and Cabello were operating as if they had decided for a speedy return from Elba, ignoring the trashing they got 2 days earlier. Napoleon at least spent enough tine in Elba to mark it for history. And while they plan a crash return/hold to power the rest of the world will take 100 days to find a definite way to get rid of the bolivarian monstrosity. Indeed, what Napoleon achieved in 100 days was the lost of any French recovery at the Vienna meeting, where Talleyrand was surprisingly achieving better terms than expected. After Waterloo not even Talleyrand could do a thing.

What can the opposition do? It all depends whether the outburst of Maduro and Cabello are a representation of chavismo or their desperate cry as they sense chavismo maybe willing to sacrifice them. For the following discussion let's assume that they represent chavismo (the other case is easier, these anti Maduro factions will quickly come to the forefront and we'll deal with them as constructively as possible).

The 100 days (or 30 or 50, does not really matter) started ticking yesterday December 8 and thus the resolution of the conflict is for, at the latest, early March. By then the economic and humanitarian crisis will have swept all parties anyway.

My suggestion for the opposition is very simple, find ways to explain to the country that the economy is a matter for the government to resolve and that the new Assembly will kindly oblige by reviewing speedily any proposal sent to them. Period. (1)

For that communication offensive the new Assembly can do the following: the chair can call for cadenas (mandatory broadcasts), there are precedents; the CONATEL law that regulates communications can be modified on the first days of the tenure so that the remaining subjugated but still alive media can unshackle their transmissions from self censorship as the regulatory agency will not be able to fine them anymore for thought "crimes". Plus other measures like recovering ANTV that will take more time.

Along leaving the dead economy at the regime door step the new Assembly should be sworn in with already a few law projects to recover intuitions and civil rights, forgetting about revenge or control. This can come only later, once the pulse between the executive and legislative power reaches an equilibrium of sorts. In no particular order since that one must be decided as events unfold, the Assembly should be sworn in with the following measures ready to go: amnesty law; call for nominations for a new CNE; revision of law that assigns a mandatory part of the nation's income to the provinces; suspend for a year any bill for weapon procurement; suspend punitive laws like SUNDEE that will have by itself already positive effects on the economy.

The regime will of course oppose every single one but it will be difficult for it to defend such opposition on public opinion as it will point to its unfairness, corruption, abuse and incompetence, reasons why people voted massively against the regime. And if the regime opposition becomes too vehement then there will be the excuse for the Assembly to call for a recall election or a constituent assembly. The 100 days will end there, in a food crisis and a collapse of the regime.

I suspect that there will be enough folks inside chavismo that will not want to sink with Maduro and Cabello and that before the 100 days are over they will have either started negotiations or asked Maduro to resign.

------
1) regular readers will remember that I wrote over the week end a decalogue which is still valid, what I am writing above being more of a question of pace as the regime is acting foolishly.

Wednesday, 2 December 2015

A certifiable "revolution" (election YV-7)

The bolivarian farce is reaching true levels of madness. Not only Maduro is certifiable, but for his supporters to go along with his latest "boutades" is a sign of the general dysfunctionality of a large spectrum of the populace.

Yesterday Maduro scored big on the levels of arbitrary and vile cruelty. Campaigning in a district were the regime is losing bad (Petare) and where the regime is in trouble (Guarenas-Guatire) he resorted to an undeserved arrest and to a humiliating moral abuse.


Campaigning around Guarenas Maduro claimed that he saw a long line at a supermarket. He simply said that this was a conspiracy by management and demanded the manager to be arrested on the spot. He later bragged that the pour soul had indeed been arrested. And to make his threats clearer he ordered an investigation to the local Heinz branch and ordered the managers to be jailed in case there was anything out of normal. In short, Maduro yesterday made it clear that he decided who goes to jail and when. Period.

The second item is worse. Petare's mayor, Carlos Ocariz, happens to have a child sick with leukemia. Since the Venezuelan heath system is a mess (I know it first hand with all the trouble I have finding treatments for my S.O.), amen of the child having probably a difficult form of leukemia, Ocariz has had to travel often to the US to accompany his kid a treatment session at a time. He can do that because I understand his wife family has the means (or got a US insurance). The chavistas at Petare's council also know about that as Ocariz has taken the necessary dispositions to make sure things run when he leaves for a week or two.

That was not enough for Maduro who publicly accused Ocariz of being a parasite, among other things, and of spending his time vacationing in his Miami mansion. Ocariz replied with a very dignified letter that Maduro has not replied to, and even less apologized for his abuse.

The point I want to make is not on the actual facts resumed above. The point is that Maduro is not acting as a Venezuelan. In our political language what Maduro said on Ocariz yesterday is simply not done. It is beyond the pale. Even Chavez would not have stooped so low. This reeks of communist brain washing of the worst kind, the kind that in its extremes joins end with fascism. A kind that is only available in Castro's Cuba. And that is that.

The trouble here is that when a sitting president is reaching such actions (never mind his now frequent promises of not respecting an adverse electoral result) one must fear for election day Sunday and what comes next. Maduro is not a democrat, never was, always acted in consequence. The brain behind him neither is a democrat and I fear she is unable to understand the risks they are taking. After all Cilia Flores has always seen power as a means to get rich, proving his by her more than exaggerated nepotism. Like Maduro and his Cuban masters they think that retaining power is simply acceptable once a few have been shot dead.

Will chavismo follow the crazies that are on board with Maduro? This is another electoral parameter that we cannot assess.

Friday, 6 September 2013

Fascist "journalists" inside the Nazional Assembly of Venezuela

Sometimes there are little items that truly freeze you blood. A certain Dayra Manuela Rivas is a "journalist" at the National Assembly and its TV network, ANTV which is supposed to be our local version of C-span but that is nothing less than a propaganda outlet where opposition representatives not only cannot participate but are now excoriated. You just need to look at the front page to see that ANTV is nothing else but crap, and at tax payer expense.


Just to make sure that you can
see by yourselves that it comes
from the web page of the
Nazional Assembly of VNZL
Today La Patilla revealed an OpEd (yeah, right...) dedicated to trash in the vilest terms Maria Corina Machado. Of course, MCM has been trashed for years along anyone that criticizes the regime. What is novel here is that she is blasted, without evidence, without proof, already sentenced in the web site of the Nazional Assembly of Venezuela by that little shit of Dayra Rivas. The article is not even original, it has all the cliches in use by the regime, all the "reminders" of past crimes that are STILL without trial, without evidence, charges repeated endlessly in the hope that it will make them true.

All inspired in the techniques for character assassination in use in Cuba and in any totalitarian regime. This is not journalism, this is not an OpEd, this is beyond character assassination.

You can read the complete article at La Patilla if you have the stomach for it. There is really no point in translating much of it, the second paragraph will do.

¡Los mismos rostros! ¡La misma serpiente! Un solo objetivo: ¡Arrodillar, doblegar a Venezuela ante los pies del imperio norteamericano! Dicen en algún lugar de la mancha [sic] que recordar es vivir, pero en Venezuela, recordar las acciones fascistas de aquellos de quienes pretenden apoderarse de las riquezas del país, y despojar al pueblo de sus derechos –tal y como lo hicieron los gobiernos de la cuarta república durante más de 40 años-, significa defender el legado del Comandante Supremo, Hugo Chávez, la Revolución Bolivariana y el Socialismo, así esto implique ¡levantar verdades o fusiles!
The same faces! The same snake! a single objective: To kneel down, to bend over Venezuela at the feet of the North American Empire! They say that in a place of La Mancha [The poor thing has no idea on the literary reference she uses! she confuses them, misspells them, proves that she is an ignorant] that remembering is to live, but in Venezuela, to remember the fascist actions of those who pretend to grab the riches of the country, and remove the rights of el pueblo- just as the governments of the IVth Republic did for more than 40 years-, means to defend the legacy of the Supreme Commander, Hugo Chavez, the Bolivarian Revolution and Socialism [capital letters intended by her here, even is she forgot the others], and thus this shall imply raise truths of riffles!

As usual, not only cultural references are wrong, but the text is ill written in Spanish, confusing, the mishmash of an angry bitch trying to pass as a journalists, and forgive my French please!

But that is where fascism thrives, on such feeble minds.