The triumphant failure of the dialogue in Venezuela

I suppose that there must be somewhere a grand design to all of this. That we are asked to swallow hard because it is all for the best. That we should trust the Vatican envoy when he is in ecstasy about the progress made. Or is it that he is claiming victory as he is on his way to the airport to leave once and for all?

So let's look at what I think is a dismal result for two weeks of expectations. I never hoped for much but this is, well, words fail me. Let's see if I can try to explain it by doing a positive and negative spin to the 5 "points of agreement" reached today.


1- ---acordaron trabajar de manera conjunta para combatir toda forma de sabotaje, boicot o agresión---Agreement to work together against all forms of {economical} sabotage, boycott or agression---

Positive spin: the regime will accept to take measures to change the economic system so that production will improve and we will have less scarcity.

Negative spin: unfuckingbelievable!!!!  The opposition buys the regime's theses that the economic crisis is not its fault but that of external factors sabitaging. In short the opposition accepts to share the blame of a crisis that is entirely of the regime's making.  And I cannot even charitably conceded that it is in the aim to silence the propaganda of the regime: just you wait!

2- ...superación de la situación de desacato de la Asamblea Nacional... overcoming the situation of disobedience of the National Assembly...

Positive spin: the regime acknowledges that there is an impasse and that something must be done. For this it will allow a repeat election of Amazonas representatives and name the 2 electoral board members whose term expires in a few days (2 out of 5 in the CNE)

Negative spin: first the language puts the blame on the National Assembly for refusing to follow the clearly unconstitutional dictates of the high court TSJ. That it was about the Amazonas representatives is not an excuse: it is inadmissible that they have been suspended 11 months ago by the TSJ and that this one has not declared whether these elections were valid or needed to be repeated.  Nowhere in the world such a delay would be acceptable.

Equally detestable, the opposition accepts that the regime will get one of the two new CNE members to be named when according to the National Assembly composition it should get none. The CNE should now be 2 to 3 in favor of the opposition and the regime will now retain a 3 to 2, and thus control of the electoral machinery with all the advantages that this implies including the electoral abuses that have been amply described.

3- Everybody agrees on defending Venezuela's right on a chunk of Guyana called Essequibo.

Positive spin: WTF?

Negative spin: WTF!

4- A "live together in peace agreement" has been approved.

Positive spin: Let's all sing kumbaya

Negative spin: wasn't there a constitution and rule of law to take care of that? OR is it now that we will live in peace because the regime decides it so? Where is the evidence of that intention?

5- Mumble jumble about organization of future conversations

Positive spin: we are still talking, nobody slammed the door.

Negative spin, the regime gains a few more precious weeks


I mean, this is bad.

In addition we learn that the next general sit down is December 6 which is an insult to the opposition as it is the one year anniversary of its landslide 2/3 majority which has been reduced to paltry negotiations so it can still breathe some. To add insult to injury the psychopath of Jorge Rodriguez is acting like the big bad Woolf enticing those in the opposition to see the positive results and thus to depose arms and join the dialogue.

What conclusions can we take, minimally?

First, the recall election is now dead. Even if December 6 were to produce the miracle of such an election there is no time to collet signatures and run it by January 10. RIP opposition main claim.

Second, the MUD is playing into the hands of the regime to accelerate its division. How can anyone think that Voluntad Popular will sit down with such paltry results? VP could possibly be talked into postponing Leopoldo Lopez release but in exchange for something big, at least a Recall Election BEFORE January 10.  Amen of other players like Maria Corina Machado.

Third, unless the MUD come up with something convincing like, now, we can only conclude it has started to cave in the regime and offer it a transition to its own measure. Why? Who? The army? The Vatican? Obama? Generic Fear?

One thing is certain, any good will at the OAS or Mercosur is likely to fade fast, if you ask me. By the time the opposition decides to hit the streets again all will have forgotten and all the work will need to be done again.

Only the regime is gaining so far. Prove me wrong.

Tienes derecho a tu opinion pero tengo derecho a no respetarla

El régimen chavista ha trabajado mucho en alterar nuestro idioma para poder imponer sus ideas, debilitar nuestro pensamiento y afectar nuestra ética. Ya George Orwell nos explicaba ese fenómeno totalitario en "1984" o "Rebelión en la Granja".

Palabras abundan, como eso de "fortalecer" todo para esconder y justificar la erosión institucional. Otra es "libertario". O "apatrida". Etc.

Pero existe una expresión muy en boga ahora que ya no puedo tragar mas: "respeto tu opinión". Inclusive el periodismo la ha santificado a punto de olvidar lo que significan palabras tales como "hechos", "concreto", "seguimiento", "verdad".

Primero, está demostrado ampliamente que el chavismo no respeta nada, y menos una opinión. Preguntenle a Leopoldo López en Ramo Verde, el más dramático ejemplo. Piensen en todos los exiliados políticos.

"Respeto tu opinión" es en realidad una forma de decir con un mínimo de cortesía que tu opinión no sirve, no tiene sustento, no merece ser respetada, que la mía es la única que cuenta, la única con validez. ¡Una hermosura de dialéctica negativista!

Pero miremos hoy en dia todos los chavistas en el gobierno usando esa expresión.

¿Cómo puede tener validez la opinión de, digamos, el diputado Pedro Carroña Carreño? ¿No nos dijo ayer que las elecciones son un lujo prescindible? ¿Es eso respetable?

¿Cómo podemos respetar al vicepresidente Aristóbulo Istúriz cuando nos eructa que el abastecimiento va mejor porque hay menos colas? ¿No ve que las colas siguen? ¿Que si aparentase tener menos colas es que ya no queda nada que comprar?

Esto ya no es a nivel de propaganda política, ni siquiera de provocación y burla. Eso ya es a nivel de cuestionar el raciocinio del otro, de su capacidad de observación, decisión, pensamiento. Es deshumanizar al otro.

Así las cosas. Yo no sé lo que harán ustedes pero este aqui ya no respeta más las opiniones absurdas y sesgadas. El chavismo, y mucho radical de la oposición, tiene derecho a sus opiniones pero yo ahora recupero mi derecho a no respetarlas. Total, tienen años sin respetar las mías.

The regime tries to play hard ball

I suspect that the live coverage yesterday of the new National Assembly chair election by Globovision must have irked a lot the regime. That must account for today's news, at least in part.

First Ramos Allup, the elected chair, went today, 24 hours before he is to be seated, the N. A.
A chavista mob barred the entry and Ramos Allup had to retreat.

An ex-president of Bolivia tweeted that:

¡Dios q le has dado a Diosdado desquiciado! Esbirros agreden @hramosallup Pres-Electo Asambl VEN antes d cambio 5E pic.twitter.com/3hzKfWTfxS

— Tuto Quiroga (@tutoquiroga) January 4, 2016

Good for the international public relations of the regime!

On other news the dismantling of ANTV, Venezuela's C-span wanna-be, has been confirmed. Workers showing up this morning found that they had been fired and that the equipment had been disassembled and/or taken away. Even Globovision is reporting it. This is quite remarkable because Globovision had been bought by chavista front men and that it showed yesterday live the election of Ramos Allup and today went to defend ANTV workers who have been fired BY THE REGIME. The reader should remember that the regime was accusing Ramnos Allup of wanting to fire ANTV workers but I guess they could not wait.

How can we read this?

First, the regime is clearly on panic mode. Doing these two measures a day before installing the new assembly, as many international witnesses are arriving and the whole world observes, is not good PR.

Second, there is true panic inside the regime that their stranglehold on communications is about to be broken. Never mind that NA interpellations of incompetent and corrupt ministers would be shown live on TV. So they blew up ANTV system in the hope that other broadcasters will not want to step in and repalce the NA cameras. Something that I suspect will fail: if Globovision is showing surprising hints of independence it is quite possible that the wind wanes at Venevision and Televen may do the same. Never mind that a quick reform of the communications law can do much more damage tot he image of the regime at home than poor ANTV could.

"según el" y otras formas de minimizar la cruda realidad venezolana

Esta semana leí y oí cosas que me preocuparon mucho, cosas que indican una cierta resignación hacia el chantaje chavista de la sociedad, el "tatequieto" que se nos aplicó desde el 2003. Empezó con en el noticiero de Globovision cuando la periodista comento declaraciones de Capriles que "según el" las cosas no nadaban bien en Venezuela.

Ese según el me preocupa mucho porque se parece a la objetividad y imparcialidad que aplican algunos como Venevision, canal cuya ultima vez que sintonicé fue durante el pseudo debate de la primaria que me convenció una vez mas de la falta absoluta de seriedad del elenco de ese canal. ¿Como es posible que un periodista que vive en Venezuela pueda decir que según algún dirigente de la oposición las cosas no andan bien en Venezuela? ¿Será que ese periodista no padece de la inflación? ¿Será que ese periodista no sufre del toque de queda? ¿Será que ese periodista tiene un super carro que evita los huecos en las calles? ¿Será que ni el ni su familia se enferman?

Cualquier periodista que use "según el" en una apreciación de los comentarios de dirigente opuesto al régimen o está censurado o es chavista. Aunque cabe la opcion de que sea un pobre periodista, sin acceso a frases elementales de objetividad como "el ..... comentaba que ....." "el..... reiteraba que....."

Parecería que algunos opinadores piensan que le toca a la oposición bajar el tono. Me parece, como principio sano de toda democracia, que efectivamente se baje el tono de la polémica. Pero eso no puede ser a cambio de nada. Por ejemplo, la semana pasada estaba Manuel Felipe Sierra hablando con el Ciudadano. Los dos comentaban que el país había cambiado, que, según ellos, había signos de voluntad de cambio en el gobierno y que había que reconocer eso. Voy a aceptar la posibilidad que ellos vean algo que yo no veo, pero sin embargo están errados. ¿Por que? Vean por ejemplo la entrevista que Roberto Giusti tuvo que calarse con Ernesto Villegas. Escribo calarse porque dudo mucho que Roberto Giusti haya disfrutado el momento con el Goebbels de turno de la revolución.

Pues bien, ¿Como negociar con un gobierno cuya condición sine qua non es un reconocimiento automático por la oposición de Maduro como presidente legitimo?  Es menester subrayar que Ernesto Villegas lo dice amparado por la indecisión crónica que afecta el TSJ cuando una decisión no puede ser favorable al gobierno.

Personalmente me parece sumamente peligroso tratar de apaciguar a un régimen que tiene lobos como Diosdado Cabello o la mismísima Cilia Flores que por no hablar en público estos días no le impide repartir con fuerza. Lo que el régimen esta buscando desesperadamente es compartir, y hasta atribuir lo mas posible del desastre que vivimos a la oposición; y que esta lo aceptase por un puñado de alcaldías seria fatal. Si hay una hora donde la reciedumbre es necesaria es esta. Se puede ser cortes con el régimen, se puede ofrecer dialogo para sacar el país de la crisis pero se tiene que ser firme y pedir algo preciso a cambio. No se puede bajo ningún pretexto dejar de decir que todo lo que padecemos hoy es culpa de Hugo, de todo lo que hizo desde el revocatorio.

Y esto se aplica desde El Ciudadano hasta Henrique Capriles.

A Snowden free item: Globovision is forgiven by the TSJ

Imagine that!  Globovision, the mush harassed news channel, finally won one! The chavismo controlled high court decided that a fine imposed on Globovision was too high and decided to halve it.

The catch?

Globovision owners since last April happen to be close to the regime.......

Be nice, play by the regime guidelines and you will get legal discounts....  then again I understand that Globovision ratings are nose diving.

Snowden renders media idiotic

And CNN is among the top in their obsession with headlines, driving them to draw a map of Snowden options.

At least that map illustrates quite well the idiocy that Snowden committed. In green the states that accepted him, and are, interestingly, among the top freedom violators of the world.  Venezuela is a major offender as private conversations are routinely taped by the regime and played on state TV, including enough manipulation of the material to perpetrate character assassination. Such playing being also illegal, of course. And there is no way to get a court to accept and process your complaint. And let's not get in all sorts of human rights violations  that take place daily here.  And Assange and the combo that manipulate Snowden from the start, do they think that going to Venezuela will improve their international standing?

No. What it is all about is a bunch of anti US guys willing to do anything, ANYTHING, to screw America as if this would arrange their own problems in life. Pathetic, from Maduro offering asylum in a country without toilet paper to Snowden looking more idiotic by the minute.

I have a question: do these creeps understand that their show is actually diminishing the US and other countries spying on our private lives? That their antics are totally counterproductive among the people that they seek to convince?

18 aviones, una plasta

La ultima intervención televisiva de  Jose Vicente Rangel nos dice mas sobre el poco respeto que tiene el régimen hacia sus seguidores que sobre amenaza alguna del régimen. El tipo se le ocurrió decir el domingo que la oposición compró 18 aviones para atacar a Venezuela y que esos aviones estarán listos en Colombia en noviembre.  Lo único que le faltó indicar es el numero de cuenta de ahorro de la operación para que podamos depositar dinero y ayudar ese esfuerzo opositor en el presunto ataque.


Claro está que cualquier persona con un mínimo de intelecto, con un dedito de frente, va a plantear alguna de las siguientes interrogantes. ¿Con que plata compra la oposición 18 aviones? ¿Como puede Colombia esconder tamaña aéreoflota cuando la pobre FARC no puede esconder por mucho tiempo sus campamentos? ¿Si Colombia es cómplice, porque trabaja con lo que son obviamente amateurs cuando puede usar su propio y muy bien entrenado ejercito para sacarse de encima el régimen actual?  ¿O será que Colombia nos quiere cagar sabiendo que tenemos semanas apretando ese culo por la falta de papel higiénico? ¡Que perversidad! ¡Que maquiavelismo el de Santos/Uribe!

De todas maneras Colombia se sacudió esta ultima senilidad de Jose Vicente mandándolo a la ONU a denunciar es asunto, que es donde se hacen esas denuncias cuando son verdaderas. Cuando son falsas se hacen desde una tribuna sin derecho a replica.

Para terminar con este patético y vergonzoso asunto que hunde nuestro país aun mas en el ridículo, si fuese posible, permítanme recordar la escasa credibilidad que tiene JVR hoy en día, cosa que me consta en lo personal.  Aquí el problema verdadero es el desprecio que tiene José Vicente Rangel hacia los seguidores del chavismo pretendiendo que se crean tamaño disparate. Es por eso que poco a poco van cayendo en votos porque la gente, por mas deseducada este después de década y media de proceso, se cansa de que sus propios lideres los sigan tomando por chaburros.

For foreign non-illustrated media and chavista supporters: chavismo media lock up

Since there is right now a cadena that silences a Capriles press conference that I was planning to live tweet, I decided that I might as well write the current situation of the media in Venezuela. Two reasons motivate me to do so.

The first one is that there are still idiotic (sorry, no other word applies) chavismo supporters overseas that repeat the old cliche that private media oppress the people and hide the news in Venezuela. Saddest part is that many journalists who should know better, who would never accept such a thing as a cadena at home, not only fail to report on the power abuse that cadenas are, but actually repeat the idiotic cliches over private control of media in Venezuela.

The other reason is that since so many people are working to denounce the current Venezuelan dictatorship, I thought I offer them a primer they can link too whenever convenient. So here it goes in clear, simple definitions.

CADENA: mandatory, SIMULTANEOUS, FORCED, broadcast on ALL AIR WAVES, TV and radio, of governmental messages. A cadena is called at will, often several times during the day as it happens since April 14, in particular. The cadena implies that who ever holds it can speak as long as s/he wants, that whatever commercial revenue lost by private broadcaster is not compensated. What is worse, cadenas are used to attack political adversaries, including direct insults and lies, while the aggravated parties has no right of reply, not only a simple one minute cadena, should we say, but not even a minute in the state broadcasting system news or talk shows.

PUBLIC/STATE TV MEDIA: chavismo over the years, has built an impressive array of media. The official state media is VTV which reaches ALL the country. To this you must add ViVeTV and Tves which reach almost as much as VTV, and which are supposed to be cultural and educational channels but which support, at least for ViVeTV, an extensive repeat of all political events shown on VTV. In a minor role because it does not reach as much of the country as the above, there is ANTV from the parliament, Telesur which pretends to be a chavista CÑN and local TV stations and community ones. Thus we have three national network, 2 almost national ones and dozens of local stuff which pass for all practical purposes only state messages, state propaganda or edulcorated "entertainment" as politically correct as possible. It is to be noted that in some areas which are not reached by cable TV the only TV you can get in open air broadcast is state TV (VTV or Tves).

PUBLIC/STATE RADIO MEDIA: the regime disposes of RNV, the sate radio that reaches all the country, but also of the more "commercial" YVKE which is a network of associated radios that cover all the major population centers. The situation here is worse than TV because when you travel a lot as I do you will drive through areas where the only radio stations with news you may get in your car are from or aligned with the regime. The other ones only play music and, not all, quickie local news of the road-kill-of-the-day variety.

LEY DE RESPONSABILIDAD SOCIAL EN RADIO Y TV, with CONATEL: these are the regulatory laws and agencies that make sure private media toes the line. They are of a repressive nature, with governmental appointed supervisors, whose main objective is that embarrassing news for the regime are shown, if must be, late at night. Only private media is ever sanctioned even though state media commits abuses infinitely worse such as the VTV show "La Hojilla" everyday late night.  The objective here is simple: create financial hardship to media that does not tow the line, driving them to bankruptcy if necessary, or in the case of Globovision this week to a change in ownership.

PRIVATE TV AND RADIO: these have been reduced considerably since Chavez reached office in 1999 and after the strike of 2002. Today we can divide the private media news in two groups: the neutralized ones and the other.

Neutralized ones: Venevision which could actually be considered almost pro regime and Televen which carries a difficult balancing act because it feels sort of protected through the space it gives to Jose Vicente Rangel every Sunday morning. Some local TV which also carry a difficult balancing act, frequently threatened when the regime does not like an item. On the radio the only one with a partial national coverage has buckled down. In short, through these you get more news than on the state system but very little criticism or even analytic examination.
Free media: this is reduced today to Globovision, although its sale this week is expected to change its editorial line. But this network, which is the the one the most attacked by the regime, has a limited coverage. It is only allowed to be in open air broadcast in Valencia and Caracas, which together represent about 25% of the country. Elsewhere you can get Globovision only if you are on cable. Note: the cable system of the regime managed through CANTV does not offer Globovision even though by law it should offer it, at least last time I checked. Outside of Globovision you only have a very few independent radio stations that dare and can afford to do so because they are situated in large cities and have a local base of advertisers which allow them to survive. But nobody today can strike it rich through a "dissident" radio station as the regime has no qualms in putting pressure on advertisers.

THE PRESS: the situation there is hardly better as the regime controls the extent of freedom of expression through allowing the importation of paper and the official advertising which for many local newspaper is the only way to survive. Local papers that dare to print unpleasantness can see their income go down by half in a few days. Only major cities can support a critical newspaper that dares to expose abuses. To this we must add the general poor quality of local papers which at best reprint articles from the main ones. For example in Yaracuy where I live, I have stopped buying the local press years ago: only red pages and mostly pro regime news though some times the infighting in chavismo does appear. Non governmental news do appear but usually in short, not very well written notes.

JUDICIAL IMPOTENCE:  what is worse than anything written above is the impossibility to get justice. Several example.

Persecution of journalists: when critical press journalists are attacked and/or injured, it is already a miracle that they are not the ones going to jail as the aggressors   To work today a journalist needs to carry at hand helmets, gas mask, etc.... Even though the situation has become a little bit better, it is still a regular occurrence that pro regime hecklers do not balk at attacking journalists.  Self censorship ensues.
Fines and more: that media and journalists are fined is one thing, but their possibility to appeal, to get a fair trial, leads them invariably to international organizations.
Public lynching: there are radio and TV programs in the state system devoted to character assassination of opposition figures, but also of people in the media. "La Hojilla" is the best known one but you should listen tot he attacks made in normal newscast of the public system, without ever the right to reply being offered while the aggravated parties simply have decided to ignore it all since there is judicial recourse. But such public lynching contributes to violent attacks by pro regime goons that feel validated in their attacks.

It should be clear that any objective observer of the Venezuelan situation should be aware and mention these things. If they fail to do so they can only be woefully misinformed and should shut up; or fascists themselves supporting these abuses for whatever reason they have.

I hope this helps and that you may use it around.