A letter to Brexiters who think they are on top

So you won yesterday by a hair thin margin on such a transcendental question. You got rid of Cameron and you probably will get "common man" Boris or Farage as prime minister in charge of dealing all the unpopular mess that is coming your way. But I guess the Sterling Pound today is already having a few of you wondering if they did the right thing. Heck! No more cheap vacations in sunny Europe for the time being.

But if somethings could well change, some others cannot, no matter what you may believe.


To begin with, Brexit is not done deal yet. There will be a tough negotiation and when the final package comes I bet the "agreement" will not pass the muster of a general election or even a referendum. And if it were to pass, my money is on the UK changing its name to Little England as there is no reason why the Scots should be dragged down into your folly. Let me put it this way, your feel good vote of yesterday may end up in a bitter disappointment as you try to effectively "change" things.

And for all your new born chauvinism there are things that cannot change. Let's take France, for example.

No major countries that I can think of have such an intimate common history than France and England. We made each other what we are today.

The invasion of French words into English language may only be matched by the invasion of English words into French.

You may have won the Napoleonic wars but France had won the Hundred Years one before, and courtesy of both wars England and France became true nations.

You may have kicked out France from India and Canada but the French made you lose the big enchilada of the 13 colonies.

You may disparage French garlicky concoctions but the French drink better tea than you do.

We may have been rivals for ever but our best and brightest elites always spoke French AND English.

Montesquieu wrote the main texts on separation of powers and civil society, but he wrote these because of the impressions England made on him.

You keep buying countryside homes in France but the French have truly made London their favorite foreign capital to vacation and live.

And let's not forget freedom for the world owes to France and England mixing their blood in two world wars and resolute unity on many crisis afterwards.

And you think that Brexit will erase all of this? Think twice.

Time's up

UPDATED: unknown to me as I was typing this overseas, Maduro was in cadena announcing a new emergency decree rendering moot the National Assembly and annuling Recall Election efforts for all practical purposes. In short confirming all that I wrote below.
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I have the feeling that the fall of Dilma in Brazil is going to speed up the conclusion of the Venezuelan farce. For the Narko-Cubano-Colonial regime action is required before the Temer presidency gets a chance to settle in. Not that the odds are with Temer, but Raúl and Maduro simply cannot take the chance.

I do not agree on the way that Dilma was pushed out. The nominal excuse was silly. But that she richly deserved what was coming her way, she did. What sealed her fate was naming Lula minister to protect him from prosecution. Such a breach of ethics makes any sitting president unfit for office. They, Brazilian congress, simply decided to act on what was in the mill and the lack, so far, of popular support for her and Lula show that "o povo" has a hard time to rally, or at least is not convinced that keeping Dilma in office is going to improve its lot.

Temer and his new cabinet are far from inspiring confidence. But if you have bothered reading the hisstory of Brazil you will know that they are used to such shifts and that they will likely give him a few weeks, maybe months. After all there is the technicality that Dilma may win her trial and be reinstated within 6 months though the impeachment tally makes that highly doubtful.

This being said the Castros and Maduro/narco-military have lost their main support. The head of Odebretch is in jail, provisional president Temer may chose, or not, to ventilate corruption cases to silence Lula and Dilma as needed since he is the one with the key to the files now. Even a return of Dilma cannot guarantee the strong support of yore.

What would Brazil do if there were a massive constitutional and human right violation in Venezuela? If Brazil goes against Venezuela it is likely that Uruguay will follow and Mercosur will be unanimous in its condemnation.  Once Peru election is held in June even Unasur would go against Venezuela (and the recent hurried support to Dilma by Unasur secretary, the highly discredited puppet Samper, betray that worry).

Thus the time for Castro to give the order to Maduro, and/or the narco-military to take the initiative to dissolve the national assembly once and for all is now. It is still possible that the OAS could fail to get enough votes to apply the democratic charter to Venezuela after Maduro acts. But once Temer decides to act against Venezuela, with the support of Macri in Argentina, the US and Canada, Mexico would follow. Small countries then will chose the big countries against a flat broke violent Venezuela and game over: Venezuela would be a pariah state and go the way of Cuba out of regional organizations.

But with the narco-military still in charge. Or that is the plan anyway.

And thus it is the time to act for them, the thugs, now, before Temer even has a chance to look at Venezuela. All that has been going on since last Monday points that way.

Chiming on US primaries

Every 4 years I write something about the US election for which I get a lot of flack, in particular from the right (you know who you are). But since I am used to it and since US election does affect Venezuela, I will go ahead any way (disclaimer: already in 2008 I was with Hillary, so there; keep reading at your own risk).

To say that the primary season this time around is dismal is not saying it all. Populism of the cheapest form is assailing both parties, and in one case, for now, winning. One could make the case that the slow recovery of the 2008 crisis, the wave of economic refugees everywhere, tribal politics, etc, should not have spared the US, albeit a nation of immigrants. But in the US, at least in the case of the Republican party, they had it coming.

I lived in the US when Clinton was president, and I never liked him; though I like Hillary, being well aware of her faults. But she is a policy wonk and she understand that one cannot get everything. That Clinton cheated on her certainly helped her realize that. There is no absolute for her and that is perhaps why people perceive this as sleaze (which does not mean she is exempt from sleaze too).

I remember how the republican party vilified Clinton. Going as far as to impeach him over a peccadillo. Anyone would have lied about being found out receiving blow jobs from Monica, let's face it. He should have been impeached for bad taste rather than being a liar, which all politicians need to be. Well, with Obama it got worse, tinged with such racism and xenophobia that the mind shudders.  How can you not expect that the guy who lead the "birthing" movement and the bigot one of the fundamentalist branch would not become the "leaders" of the Republican party?

I have known long ago that Marco Rubio was not going to change anything. After all I did receive a lot of flack when I complained that Rubio decided to question evolution and grant at least equality to creationism. As a scientist this was unacceptable for me, that a well educated politician would say such thing just to court electorate was simply not acceptable. True, Rubio had been a strong advocate for freedom in Venezuela but you cannot question science, 2+2 will always give 4. If you question the most objective of discourse we have how can I trust you when you will have to discuss the mine fields of subjective policies? If you do not like science then do not mention it in your speeches. It was a sign that Rubio was a weather vane trying to please everyone. And last Tuesday he not only he failed to carry his home state, but he lost it abysmally, probably ruining his political future. Too bad, it was the type of Republican who on paper I could have voted for him, but I had given up on him before Iowa.

Trump reminds me of Chavez and Marine Le Pen in France, except that Le Pen is far more knowledgeable on polices than the first two clowns. But all are histrionic politicians and unfortunately in an age where media is ONLY seeking headlines, they have a tremendous advantage. Such politicians attract red necks, white trash, low life, uneducated, low self esteem folks. And the ones with education that tag along do so because they know that they will be cashing in big time if their man/woman makes it to the top. such leaders have a very low follow up talent, always looking toward the next show they can lead. And thus they can only be bad managers of the res publicae.

The problem here is that the last anti Trump alternative, Ted Cruz, actually scares me more than Trump. First, his way of speaking, the way he unfolds his arguments is supremely irritating for me, rings truly false. That holier than thou is just unacceptable in a politician and, believe it or not, also reminds me of Chavez if he had gone to the UCAB in Venezuela for his college degree instead of the barracks. Ted Cruz love of the constitution as his, as HIS interpretation, makes him a plain reactionary, not a conservative.

Fortunately for us I think that any one of Trump or Cruz would be defeated by Hillary because neither one is really able to go beyond the White Male electorate. The Republican party has not learnt from its 2008 and 2012 failures. And that is pathetically shown again in the looming Supreme Court battle. That the republican leader McConnell is so willing to trample the constitution just because Obama has only 10 more months to serve is not only a confession of his bigotry and personal hate towards Obama but also of his rigid stupidity and intolerance. After all, he has the mean to not only delay, and delay, the process of confirmation but after all in the end the Senate could vote no. There is a Republican majority last time I checked. No? If this is one of the main leader of the GOP, what can you expect from the rest?

Once upon a time there were Republican Senators I could have voted for like Monyham, or Weicker, or Sarbanes but today.........

Unfortunately Hillary Clinton is looking more and more like a lesser Evil, and it is not me that says it: even our friends at right wing conservative take no prisoners Babalublog are facing down the option of having to vote for Hillary. Her rival Sanders makes her even more electable. After all Sanders is dragging with him an independent populist base who wants all for free, chavista style. Never mind that he refuses to condemn Castro and that Venezuela human rights violations are inexistant. Well, to be fair, for these people Venezuela does not exist. Hillary had no problem dispatching Sanders at the Florida debate over a Castro question which I am sure was the reason not of her victory but of her lopsided victory. She got the Cuban voters, Rubio did not although he certainly deserved it more than Hillary. The unfairness of it all.

So there we are, as I type it is more than likely that Hillary Clinton will be elected US president even though her own personal messy affairs could play bad tricks on her once in office. But then again, even with that baggage she is the better option. She knows what the business government is all about; her tenure at State and on the Senate was not bad, and certainly better than her potential rivals; she can think and does not run her mouth like Trump who is always selling something, himself preferably.

The real problem in all of this comes from the degradation of the American Political system. How is it possible that last year the two front runners were relatives of two living ex-presidents? When the Republic starts indulging in dynastic politics you know that it is in trouble. And that is that.

Argentina and Uruguay to investigate business with Venezuela

Long time faithful reader Milonga from Uruguay has finally accepted to send me a note about what is going on down South with all these elections going on. There is her great article. Enjoy and thank her. Note: we had the pleasure to read her in the past.
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They say all roads take you to Rome. Well, here in Latin America, all roads lead you to Chavez.

When Mauricio Macri was elected, Argentineans started to find out some of the comings and goings of the Kirchner government. For example, take this poultry farm called Red Crest (Cresta Roja), which just went bankrupt and fired 300 workers. It exported to Venezuela and received a 650 dollar subsidy for each ton exported. Also, they were paid by the government for selling their produce underpriced to the local market. And gave them billionaire credits which they can´t pay back to the Bicentenary Bank, due to the fact that Venezuela is not paying its debts. So, in spite of all these benefits, it went broke. Money loaned went to pay for the K political campaign, not to cover up for Venezuelan lack of payment. They did not count on losing the election.

This is just one example. There are many others. And the new Government has vowed to look into them, including Antonini Wilson´s dollar-packed suitcase.

On the other side of the River Plate, a Parliamentary Investigation in Uruguay dealing with the state-owned petrol monopoly – ANCAP, has also lighted red lights in the opposition, as well as public opinion. The company has a deficit of more than one billion dollars and most of them are directly or indirectly connected to business with Venezuela. That´s a lot of money for a small country like Uruguay, with a 3 million population.

In the meantime, the opposition has also found out that the main spokesperson with Venezuela is Daniel Placeres, newly elected to the House of Representatives by the Popular Participation Movement (MPP, for its initials in Spanish), Mujica´s party. Not only that, he actually lives in Mujica´s ranch. During the past three years, Placeres admits visiting Caracas for 85 times. Of course he denies influence peddling, but that is hard to believe. He´s just a cover-up for Mujica himself. A percentage of all trade between Uruguay and Venezuela goes to the MPP chests. During these trips he was received personally by Maduro at his Miraflores offices. This is not a normal procedure for ordinary businessmen doing trade.  So you’ll be hearing about Aire Fresco S.A. (Fresh Air) in the nearby future. That’s the name of the trade company that was created for business with Venezuela.

The National opposition party is in an “investigative vigil”. Relationship with Venezuela has been a constant worry for the Party, both politically and commercially. After this summer truce, one expects next year to be complicated. Circumstances avail that.

This audio in Spanish explains some of the matters that are being considered. An article in the Panam Post in English will give you a further insight into this problem.

Godfather

Just before the Parliamentary elections in Venezuela, General Padrino came To Montevideo for an official Mercosur meeting of Defense ministers. He took a day off to spend some hours with Mujica at his now famous ranch.

Since the meaning of “padrino” in Spanish is Godfather, I associate that figure as Pepe Mujica´s role in Bolivarian world. One presumes that their talk was to build post-electoral strategies, since the tweet that came up from that meeting is till echoing:

Meaning: “In Venezuela there´s an excess of democracy and the Revolution must go on with perseverance and discipline”.

Such hypocrisy and double standards! We all know these characters cannot afford to open the Pandora´s box that would disclose their corruption. It would be the fall of the Berlin wall all over again.

Milonga
Montevideo, 15th January, 2016.

Note to Obama and Santos: appeasing thugs NEVER works

The Venezuela-Colombian border crisis should have been a fantastic opportunity to put the Venezuelan narco-regime on notice. Instead it serves as show case on how the appeasement policies of Obama and Santos are sinking fast.

The crisis was an absolutely artificial creation of the Venezuelan regime, increasingly taxed by its faults. As polls plummet for the regime when crucial elections are scheduled for December 6, this one has done all what it can to sabotage them. One offensive was to go straight ahead and jail major opposition figures, bar from running other, gerrymander further the districts, increase censorship and try to bankrupt the scant remaining free press. Elections? Sure! Just try to campaign! However it was an uphill battle to regain the favor of its electors, the only real way to win elections. Since the economy has tanked there is only one option left to rekindle the love of the chavista voter: chauvinistic nationalism, redundancy intended.

First there was a renewed anti US anti Obama drive. This one floundered when Havana and Washington started real talks and petered out at the recent OAS general assembly when Maduro got to see Obama without cameras for a brief moment, long enough for Obama to talk him down.

It seems thus that the "millions" of anti Obama signatures "freely collected" and validated without scruples by the "electoral authorities" were not enough to raise polls for a durable hold. So Maduro sought a conflict with Guyana over maritime and territorial claims. The only result of that came with a further loss of the Venezuelan case; and that the supposedly meek supporters of Venezuela in CARICOM went Guyana way without batting an eyelash. Isolation is thy name, Maduro.

Having been defeated in the imaginary northern border with the US of A and the Eastern border of Guyana there were only two borders left. The one in the South with Brazil is far and dicey although it seems the regime will try something. But the Western border with Colombia was ripe with existing excuses, or fertile grounds to plant new ones.

There are all sorts of theories on how the pretext came about. Some say that it all started from a rivalry between two narco-gangs in Venezuela, the one of the "Soles" and the one of "Guajira", both pointed out as being at least partially controlled by different wings of the army. Others say that it was a mere rivalry between gangs controlling the heavy contraband system towards Colombia, courtesy of the artificially deflated prices of Venezuelan goods. Others advance that it was a way to get rid of Tachira governor rumored to be in talks with "transition" proposals. Some even go as far as saying the whole show is just to put pressure on Santos who may extradite to the US compromising witnesses of the narco-regime in Caracas. None of these pretexts exclude the others, by the way.

Clearly, something as crazed as that, with damning images of human rights abuses as Colombians in Venezuela are rudely expelled when not leaving in a hurry motu proprio, should have been a bonus, a golden opportunity for Colombian and US diplomacy to read a writ to Venezuela. Unfortunately the errors of Santos and Obama policies toward Venezuela's regime are now paid, most likely under Cuban direction. Which have been these mistakes?

Obama's mistakes come from opening to Cuba without proper reciprocity.  Thinking that making the first step toward a totalitarian regime will bring concessions is a mistake that the West should have learned once and for all in 1938 while drinking beer in Munich. Certainly I approved of Obama's initiatives since everything else tried before by the US has failed; more by lack of will than actual vices or virtues of any legislation. But one thing is to approve the initial gesture, another thing is to approve the mechanism chosen. The result is that as soon as Cuba realized that the big bucks were not coming fast the Castro's regime started increasing repression and moving its pieces elsewhere. Extortion is the natural state for these people and that Obama and Kerry thought it would be different this time around is simply bedeviling.

The second mistake was sending Shannon to discuss with Maduro and Cabello without anything in exchange. Or so it seems so far. True, it is supposed that the release of half a dozen of political prisoners would be a result of that, along the call for elections which was suspiciously delayed. But the released prisoners are under house arrest and suffer all sorts of impediments while elections can be cancelled even on election day. The real result of these "negotiations" is that thug in chief, Diosdado Cabello, pointed out by many as a drug capo, feels vindicated and now indispensable. So as any good thug would do he has increased his attacks on people who dare criticize him, has decided to bankrupt once and for all the remaining free newspapers, and more. So much for Shannon effectiveness.

Colombia's president, Santos, mistakes started 5 years ago when he "befriended Chavez".  It has been downhill since. Chavez under a reprieve as Uribe's parting shot was exposing all FARC training camp inside Venezuela, played nice and stroked Santos ego in that he could indeed bring the FARC to serious negotiations after having been the Uribe's defense minister in charge of blowing them out. Which he nearly did, by the way and may have been able to complete had he wanted to. Under the excuse that Venezuela's role was crucial to the eventual success of Havana's Santos-FARC talks, the Santos administration made all sorts of concessions to the Venezuelan regime, most despicably by handing over to Caracas drug kingpins and political exiles.

Sure enough the FARC is playing Santos through and though. Its first success was to force Santos into a difficult reelection. This conservative, liberal right president has had to ally himself to the fading left of Colombia to get reelected and thus he has unnecessarily promoted its recovery. After reelection the FARC has become even more belligerent, and now it is trying to use the border crisis offering itself as the best guarantor against contraband and the alleged paramilitary infiltration inside Venezuela, as if Venezuela was not the main promoter of paramilitary groups like the colectivos, pranes .....

How can Santos and his ever more idiotic looking foreign minister Holguin whose appeasing smiles and seduction to Maduro are now blowing up to her face have lost the political coup offered to them on a silver tray?

First, the delayed response. Uribe was promptly at the border with Venezuela while Holguin sought a "meeting" with the Venezuelan foreign minister, the insufferable hack sister of Caracas mayor and inventor of all electoral frauds. While Holguin was giving Rodriguez a propaganda platform to accuse Colombia in its own country, the images of Colombians wading the river Tachira with their scarce belongings made front pages.

Santos waited for a week to go to the border and this late in the game he had to go populist and offer all sorts of goodies to calm down the natives. But it was too late, Colombian public opinion was united, and not around Santos. Even ex president Gaviria questioned the participation of Colombia to fakes like UNASUR who clearly do not wish to offend whatsoever the susceptibility of Maduro and co.  To add insult to injury Maduro kept giving fake handouts in Venezuela, declared falsely that scarcity was over thanks to his policies in Tachira, threatened to push the border blockade all along the Venezuelan border and flew to Vietnam. Cabello on his own decided to stir a little bit of trouble with the Brazil border attacking garimpeiros as if did not know they  had been creating ecological devastation since Chavez came to office!

I think that we are assisting to the undoing of Obama and Santos foreign schemes. I, for one, dearly hope that this is all part of a master plan to muzzle once and for all the rogue regimes of Havana and Caracas. But I am not holding my breath whatsoever.

Luckily for Santos and Obama, they do not have to worry about reelection anymore. Others will sort out the debris.

Those regrettable moments

I know that Maxima is an habituée of hard core repressive regimes, but this....

The Netherlands King visits the naked emperor of chavismo

In the series of royalty mistakes Willem Alexander should bitch back at the Dutch government for forcing him to visit Venezuela. Certainly doing a Caribbean tour and not stopping by Caracas is a dangerous initiative as The Netherlands share an important maritime border with Venezuela (4 islands!). In addition the economy of three of these islands is quite dependent on Venezuela, from the oil they refine there to the fresh vegetables they ship regularly.  But from there to go and support such a contested figure like Maduro just when he is becoming a full blooded dictator...  Pleaaaaase...  I mean, even the French have manged not to send a president or a Prime Minister!

Of course, speculation is going good. Did they came for an oil concession? Is Venezuela holding some form of blackmail over Aruba?  What is the Dutch prime Minister snorting these days?  Can Timmermans be so incompetent?  Etc.  Whatever it is the opposition is shocked, and I include myself in this, having refused to believe that such a visit could take place, that Wilhelm would come down with the flu at the last moment or something.

We already know that chavismo has no friends and that no matter who do they smile at today, tomorrow they will stab in the back as needed. If the Dutch government does not know that they will learn it soon enough. What is graver for the Dutch is that an hypothetical but not uncertain post chavista administration may not be too forgiving. There is, oh, say, this tweet of Lopez:

Mientras Maduro reprime los reyes de Holanda vienen a pedir concesiones petroleras. Que sepan los "reyes" q se les ven las consturas.
— Leopoldo López (@leopoldolopez) November 23, 2013

While Maduro represses {the people} the kings of Holland come to ask for oil concessions. We got their number.

Needless to say that this visit is quite, quite regrettable and that the Dutch are going to regret it the most.
And to think that there are full gay rights in Amsterdam, freedom of the press, civility, etc. etc.

PS: and let's talk about a commie president kissing ass to royalty.  Chavismo is actually rather discrete about this visit, just enough to try to refurbish Maduro 's image overseas. But we gotta love the ideological incoherence.

Maria Corina Machado to the front line?

It has been a good weekend for Maria Corina Machado, if you call notoriety good in times of crisis and repression. Suddenly she is top billing above Capriles in Maduro's paranoia, and she gets two major interviews, one in El Universal but one also in La Nacion of Argentina. And she got two top journalists for that, Roberto Giusti and Hugo Alconada respectively, this last one having become an expert on Venezuelan and Argentinean corruption since the Antonini case of the 800K bucks in a suitcase.

Of course, MCM has never been too far away from the front pages, miscellaneously having her nose broken in the Venezuelan National Assembly while more serious parliaments go out of their way to receive her with all the respect she deserves. Yet we must be surprised that Maduro went out of his way this weekend to suggest that she is the one chosen by the US to replace him by leading an upcoming transition.

The words of Maduro have, of course, no credibility on that matter. After all, if we were to take his words at face value, if his words were to verify in real life he would have probably been killed long ago in one of the multiple attempts against his life. But unfortunately for him, the fact of the matter is that there has been NO SERIOUS case against his life that could be sustained in court of justice. And each time Maduro goes yet deeper in ridicule.

No, we must search elsewhere the reasons why Maduro suddenly brings her to the front line.

"Ustedes saben que hay un cambio de línea en Washington, porque creen que pueden nombrar presidentes en Venezuela. Ahora han ungido a una dama, y la están preparando. Miembro honorífica de un apellido de 200 años de alcurnia. Ahora ella está ungida del poder y le han dicho prepara tu imagen, debes ser moderada, ahora debes vestirte de rojo y parecer chavista,..."You know that there is a change of line in Washington, because they think that they can name presidents in Venezuela. Now they have anointed a lady, and they are preparing her. Honorific member of a last name that has 200 years of prestige [Mayfloweresque?]. Now she is anointed by power and they told her to preapre her image, you need to be moderate, you need to dress in red and look like a chavista....

Of course, this is absolutely preposterous and quite frankly idiotic, oriented to the lumpen chavismo that Maduro has more and more trouble to stir, emote, motivate. Besides the obvious, to try to divide the opposition by questioning the leadership of Capriles there is something else. In a time of crisis, when people are getting desperate, even among some sections of the armed forces, strong language like the one held all along by MCM may start having some effect. Capriles soft chavista light approach did not work in 2012. His rising his tone a notch worked better in 2013. But Capriles has remained the same since and there is a hunger for sterner sentences which MCM provides. Heck, she evens stirs nationalism by accusing Maduro to give up Venezuelan territory to Guyana, something that cannot fail to be noticed by an uncomfortable military forced by Cubans interests to put Cuban policies above Venezuelan national interests. Yes, they are paid to accept that loss but still...... At any rate, whether her words had an effect, the Venezuelan navy took in custody this week a boat working for Guyana.

The problem for Maduro is very basic: he has neither the education, the formation, the competence, the charisma to be a president of Venezuela and the contrast against some of the most, best articulated politicians in the country is starting to be noticed. Certainly people like myself have been monitoring with keen interest people like Leopoldo Lopez of MCM above Capriles and other. But today it is quite possible that the language of Lopez and MCM is reaching deeper than what many would like......... Maduro is thus, in his increased repressive alienation, forced to deal with more than Capriles and preemptively takes on MCM, the more so as she promises to be a top speaker at the National Assembly debate on the enabling law.

And yet MCM is simply repeating what she has said for years now. She is clear in her mind and her interviews cited at the start really do not bring anything new for those who follow.  The novelty is, for example in the Argentine interview, that she looks down on Brasil, reflecting the general disappointment in Brasil and outside with Dilma Roussef. But what she is more direct than ever is her categorical statement that Maduro's tenure should be numbered in months, because not only of the crisis but because  his incurable illegitimacy does not allow him to tackle the crisis, amen of his personal flaws. And that of course, is nightmare material for Maduro.

Suriname's Bouterse to preside over UNASUR, yet another fail for Brazil

I had just finished a post on Syria and checked twitter quickly. Alas, I need to write a second post....

It turns out that the son of former dictator, always strong man, currently alleged elected president of Suriname has been arrested in Panama for drug traffic and quickly expedited to the US. This during the UNASUR summit held in Suriname where Desi Bouterse is supposed to take the helm for the next few months. Such things cannot be made up.

Dino Bouterse is apparently quite a piece of work, just like his daddy is. El Pais goes further in his report, elaborating on the relationship between Daddy and Hugo when he was still alive. Indeed, both presided over authoritarian narco states so economic agreements had to be made. In particular for Suriname that probably makes more in a couple of shipments of coke than its annual budget....

So, why Brazil in the title, you may ask? Well, UNASUR is Brazil's Lula brain child to herd under the same roof all of the countries that have a border with Brazil so as to monitor and influence them better. Other uses of UNASUR have already proven to be meaningless such as its inability to force Maduro into a real electoral audit last April.

Now, since it is Brazil that truly holds the rein inside UNASUR (Colombia and Chile are there because they have really no other choice) it is simply out of all possible understanding that they have allowed Desi Bouterse to preside over UNASUR, even for a few months. That by itself, shows how little regard Brazil has for its own creation, presided by a convicted felon that could be arrested as soon as it gets in the Schengen space......

The foreign policy of Brazil has become a true continental embarrassment for people that know better.

Now what?

Yesterday's High Court, TSJ, decision was not earth shattering, by far, but it was momentous nevertheless. Though its effect has to be sought in the psyche of the players rather than any direct consequences.  For the opposition, it makes little difference except that the intention of putting Capriles behind bars is truly obvious. Strategy adjustments will have to be made accordingly. For chavismo the consequences are more complex.

Nobody really expected anything from the TSJ. Personally I thought that the TSJ would have admitted the electoral challenges but ruled over them in any convenient political way at its best convenience, anywhere from rejecting them to approving them to get rid of Maduro. Thus, the outright rejection of the challenges without examination surprised me in that it revealed that the inner fights of chavismo have been put on hold, that Maduro has improved his internal positions and that they decided to put all their efforts in avoiding a debacle next December. In a practical way they need all their militants to collaborate for the "bring in the vote" and the necessary cheating required to "win". We can thus expect lot's a loving inside the PSUV.

And yet the ruling fails badly at where it matters the most. The TSJ admitted for all practical purposes that Maduro did not win in April. For all in Venezuela it is now clear that the "victory" was achieved through significant cheating, that chavismo is not a majority anymore. I insist, even for chavistas who know it as a fact but pretend it otherwise.  It is just a matter of self interest, or of idiocy for portions of the rank and file who are only too willing to believe any propaganda line. For this last group, even if Capriles had officially won they would go around saying that there was electoral fraud against Maduro. This is not new, it already happened in times of AD and COPEI. What I am trying to say here is that the TSJ non-ruling but a ruling is going to have an demotivating effect among chavismo. You can see that by the PSUV leaders addressing that issue as discretely as possible compared to the loud protests of the opposition, focusing on their candidate appointments today.

But the damage goes further. Now the opposition can harp more about the electoral fraud and make an ever better argument that people need to participate, to stay at all voting stations until every ballot is counted to diminish fraud if they want a chance to improve their lot in the long term, if anything by having a better garbage pick up. Also, overseas the regime made the case easier for the opposition. Now we will have plenty of delegations going to all parliaments and courts of justice to explain, facts in hand, why there is no justice in Venezuela and henceforth make it a more convincing case that there is no democracy since there is no independent justice. Not that this will leave Maduro et al. sleepless, as the recent reëlection of Mugabe is a shining road to follow. Still, it is annoying for the chavista leadership that craves "respectability" to see all receiving them with a slight ironic smile while waiting for the check before singing any agreement.

For the opposition, besides the added plus for international opinion, if they play it well, and the creation of a martyr to be leader a la Aung San, they get a boost for its electoral mobilization. Now, any "dissent" running as a pretend in between chavismo and the MUD will get at best the votes of realtives and the disgruntled chavista that did not receive the free gift, so to speak....  Yet there is a very dark side. The opposition leadership is now under siege and prosecution and jails are in the works for many of them. The MUD was sent a clear message that this is becoming a true dictatorship and that actions will be taken. We have to see if finally the MUD will stop fooling itself and speak clearly to the country, letting all the wimps out of its coalition and focusing on the real fight with real democrats and not hanger on or outright moles.
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I am putting this separate because I do not want to make a full post about it. The international actions for the opposition are of a long term nature if they succeed.  And even then, it will require that at the very least enough countries take economic sanctions, etc...  Because no marine is going to land in Venezuela. They are not landing in Syria, you know....

Yet, it is worthwhile pushing international actions.

First, Mugabe may be a cheat but he is not received in any decent country which eats him inside. The same applied for Chavez and will apply for Maduro and Diosdado. These people crave "respectability, and the ability to enjoy what they stole in the in places of the world.

Second, some of the actions may have positive effects at home. For example I do not know why the opposition is not announcing as of now that it will invoke the Protocol of Ushuaia of Mercosur. With Paraguay wondering the worth of returning to Mercosur, such a petition will create enough embarrassment in the accomplices of the regime in the Mercosur that they may at least demand discretely that Capriles does not go to jail. There are campaigns coming in three countries where the right democrats would love to have additional arguments to criticize the left for its fake attachment for human rights.

Third, it will complicate the intrigues of the regime as the opposition now is in good position to state that if they get back into office they reserve the right to recognize deals made from now on. Now they do not need to worry about internal backlash because they can call  a spade a spade, or rather, a corrupt, a corrupt.

Towards "le dernier carré", or Maduro circling the wagons

SICAD at Waterloo

"Le dernier carré" is a known military term, particularly put in vogue at Waterloo when the last battalion of the Garde Impériale was called at the end of the battle, as much as a last ditch effort as to protect the retreat of the army. The Garde supposedly was standing in squares and the last holding square was, well, kind of like circling the wagons while knowing full well that your scalp was about to free itself from its hold no matter what.

This being said, before I digress further, I am not implying whatsoever that the regime theoretically held by Maduro is about to collapse and they are circling the wagons in a square (though they would be stupid enough to try that if you ask me). No, the regime may still have a while ahead but it is behaving as if the hour had come. But before we go into these nervous defenses of the regime, let's review why it is justified for them to feel cornered.

First, social protest is not ebbing. The regime there benefits of the congenital selfishness of the Venezuelan that makes an interest group unable to take seriously the concerns of other interest groups, starting with the opposition MUD unable to support energetically the university protest, to name the most recent major case. But that does not stop the myriad of protests going on because X was not paid, Y was due such amount, Z were laid off without reason and W was promised this by Chavez himself.

Second, no matter how hard Maduro tries he cannot establish once and for all his legitimacy. Every body, EVERYBODY, knows he won through electoral fraud. That, at home or abroad, they decide to pretend otherwise or prefer not to do anything about it is another matter. One reason may be simply that foreign countries manage basic arithmetic and know the regime of Maduro to be nonviable. Thus why not wait it out? Which is a crass error because it assumes that the regime is more than an assembly of thugs and that at some point it will yield power more or less pacifically. It will not, the regime is a group of military corrupt thugs and their civilian enablers, all working for the colonial master in Havana.  At any rate, that is why Piñera had so much trouble in receiving Capriles in Santiago this week and why Humala escaped Lima for the provinces so as not to be put in the same uncomfortable position. But it is also the reason why Santos did receive Capriles in Bogota because Colombia knows very well that the collapse of chavismo is trouble for them and thus Colombia cannot wait for it to happen, preferring a more controlled end.

But that avoidance in fact plays in the hand of Capriles who, for the first time that I know of, put UNASUR on notice. Humala may have skipped town but the political class in Lima has been served notice and has been asked "it is not possible that what matters most are economic interests over human rights and constitution".  This in Peru, the country that with Chile has probably been helped the most by Venezuelan democracy before 1998. People with principles and intelligence are confirmed in their notions that UNASUR, OAS, CELAC, MERCOSUR are mere fronts for immorality.

Third, of course, is the intractable economic situation. Intractable mostly because the regime refuses to take the measures that need to be taken, refuse to accept that the Chavez years are over, seems to believe that if Chavez were still alive there would not be an "economic problem" today. I am certainly one who wishes Chavez would be alive to enjoy the show of him finally drowning in his mess. But I digress again. The point is that this last week much vaunted solution, SICAD, to offer cash to the private sector to reactivate the economy has proven to be a mere lottery, to have no direction, to have no transparency, to look more like an excuse to give scarce dollars to cronies of the regime than actually solving problems. The second installment of the SICAD disappoints more than the first one and its failing is not even on what I listed before, it is that it is not enough. Depending on the experts, the SICAD is not able to satisfy the demand of dollars of the economy, offering at best, if it continues, if it becomes more fluid, a mere 10% of the needs that CADIVI does not provide. Amen that CADIVI itself is not providing half of what it is supposed to provide. El Universal explains it today, again: the Venezuelan government, instead of priming the private sector to grow again, is reducing its access to dollars while the regime prefers to use the few dollars to pay for debts and import electoral goods  directly. Looks like a Merkel austerity plan if it were not that the regime keeps buying weapons and financing lost causes.

The regime is obviously trapped in a catch 22 situation. This would not be so bad if at least it seemed that they were aware of it and trying to find a way out. But no, they are forging ahead, trying to find the new regulation that will finally allow all the old regulations to work.

For example Diosdado Cabello went to China to find inspiration. But even if he found it, it would not work because after 14 years of entitlements the Venezuela worker is no mood to work like a Chinese worker, the major source of China economic growth.

For example Maduro once again breaks with the US because its new appointee to the UN embassy , Samantha Powers, said publicly that Venezuela is a repressive regime. Maduro gets upset easily these days that things are not going his way and the weak "overture" to the US, with Jaua beaming to Kerry, is over. As if breaking with the US was the solution. We have been now a few years with ambassadors, I am sure Foggy Bottom is shaking.....

Of course, the escalation against the opposition is going on. Several opposition representatives are now prosecuted for a variety of reasons, using even evidence that is obviously forged but that the states attorney takes as valid without bothering to investigate the charges. Reports on pressing the media to stop talking about election fraud are apparently now routine.  As well as pressure against anyone fool enough to write a check for next December election.  And let's pass on tall tales of imminent invasion whose sole object is to justify future repression from the regime .

All in all the scenario is quite clear, at least for this blogger. The regime continues in its downward nihilistic spiral, reaching eventually a "dernier carré" at which point it will either implode into a red dwarf and leave room for a new sun to emerge or go supernova and take down all of us.

Why there is no "latino american spring", and certainly not in Venezuela

When you watch all that had happened in Arabic countries and what happened in Turkey recently, amen of the diverse "take" groups from NewYork to Puerta del Sol, you may wonder why is it that in Latin America there is no such collective feel. After all, there is a list of candidates: Venezuela, Argentina, and Cuba at the very least.  Not to mention that the tension exists such as the instability of certain countries can bear witness (Bolivia, Guatemala, and even Chile).

But the surprise has come from Brazil where suddenly Dilma Roussef finds herself in trouble proving that the direction of the country under Lula was plagued with corruption and crass materialism aiming strictly at "improving" access to goods to the downtrodden. Because that is what Lula did, bring stability at home through better material access and middle class increase while he was doing a Chavez outside, bringing in a World Cup, the Olympics and even trying for a permanent seat at the UN security council.

Certainly, it is infinitely commendable that Lula's administration raised in real terms the income of people, and sustainable levels apparently. But that was enough for him and public services in accordance to an emerging middle class and world pretensions was not a priority. Now Dilma is paying the price and Brazil could be looking right now for a Chavez like creep to fulfill promises that cannot be fulfilled but that will fool long enough the new middle class to grab power and keep it.

And yet in Venezuela nothing happens.

We have crippling inflation and serious, life threatening shortages.

The real campuses aflame while the chavista ones cow in shame, because faculty is underpaid and there is no means to ensure proper education. But chavista faculty get the same pay check while curiously having an uncanny ability to find "consulting" contracts with the regime to supplement handsomely their income.  Chavista university students do not seem to be bothered by their poor quality education, all theoretical due to the lack of means, because, well, no matter what they will get a degree, as worthless and unmarketable as this one may be.

Politicians focus on December municipal elections that the CNE is sure to make fraudulent once again, at least in Caracas. We are bemused by this lack of bitching at the CNE...

And amen of insecurity, labor claims, corruption and assorted abuses that victimize us all.

There is no spring for us, we of the wretched country. We did have a spring in 2002 and 2003 but the world turned its back on us, thinking that we were just a spoiled middle class that was resistant to Chavez reforms. We all know what happened next.

Do not expect me to feel sad for Brazilians who are the main guilty party to our unraveling as a country when Lula, with the agreement of his opposition, started sending tankers of gasoline to Chavez early 2003. Whether you overthrow Dilma or suffer a massive repression, I prefer to worry about other people. After I saw how well you were doing a couple of months ago, you are way more spoiled than what we were in 2003.

And that is why we have no collective spring because we have proven ourselves to be perhaps the most selfish continent, where the glory of individual politicians seem more important than the fate of nations, from Ushuaia to Tijuana. Well, with a few rare exceptions like Costa Rica. That we enable that in our politicians goes a long way to explain that we could not care less, in all truth, about what happens next door.

Erdogan, Assad and Aung San Suu Kyi in Caracas

UPDATED
The news these days offer many a temptation to draw cheap parallelisms to Venezuela situation. But those in the title of this entry are far from being a parallel though they could help explain some of the "aspects" of the Venezuelan current debacle.

Erdogan

Comparing what is happening at Taksim square these days with an Arab spring is rather ridiculous, and embarrassing for Erdogan, the questioned Turkish prime minister cum wanna-be strong man, pretending to be a model for the newly freed states. After all, Erdogan has been duly elected in elections that were at the very least freer than those in Venezuela and Turkey economy has boomed for the last decade, with a real economic boom where production increased in real numbers.

What happens today in Turkey is an actual society choice, of people genuinely tired of progressive religious encroachment, decrease in civil liberties and the like even though the leaders claim to do it all with the aim of joining the democratic European Union.  They are now exposed for what they really were: your average conservative that suddenly thinks it has it made and power for ever is a possibility. Unfortunately for democracy for every Bush there is an Obama (just as for every Carter there is a Reagan). Turkey not being yet a solid democracy, with its secular implications, we end up in Taksim square.

I suppose that if chavistas were better educated they could have looked at Erdogan as a possible model. After all he won election after election, had a popular hue even if religious in nature, managed to have self censorship of the press, and was able to force slow but regular change in Turkish society without it noticing it quite, until now. But the Venezuelan "boom" of Chavez was a mere distribution of cash, not an increase in production and now the economy is capsizing. Chavez never was a model except for its methods to ensure that gangs of thugs seize and retain power while killing democracy with its own weapons. We did have a Taksim of sorts with Plaza Altamira in 2002-2003 but this is over as the reality of Venezuelan society caught up with us: we are not a fighting people, we were never democrats and never really aspired to become such, much preferring whomever promised the best "free gifts" from the state. Elections may be stolen, but in the end we do not seem to care as long as we seem to be getting our share of the loot.

Aung San Suu Kyi

The Burma heroine may well finally reach her goal to become Burma next president in 2015. There is still a need to change the constitution there, and for the military to accept that change is now unavoidable. She will have had to wait over twenty years, a nakedly stolen election triumph, who knows how many years in house arrest but in 2015 she will either be president of Burma or whoever wins will have been approved by her.

Is this the fate of Capriles? Does he have to wait 20 years until chavismo eventually let's him reach office?

The big difference here is that ASSK had always a majority of the people with her, and a combative one that on occasion was not afraid to take risks, such as a very few years ago when Buddhists monks themselves almost made it. Poor Capriles barely crossed the 50% line this time around and he cannot hope that the chavistas who for the first time switched their vote will also go down to the streets to defend his victory. This is too much to ask, too fast for them.

What is sadder is that even among the long time opposition voters, many think that tweeter is the way to go to unseat chavismo and they are certainly not ready to suffer personally for that goal.  Capriles may face a few more years in the wilderness and if like ASSK he did suffer some unfair and illegal jail time, he also has more people trying to replace him at the head, amen of the "traitors" pretending to be with the opposition but only too willing to accommodate themselves with a few more years of chavismo. And if it were not for the looming economic debacle we may be looking at a decade more of chavismo at least.

Assad

Considering Assad lesson for us is a rather grim prospect. Even if we do not need to be afraid of such a crude and cruel civil war it remains that the chavistas in place are only too willing to take down the economy along their own descent. They are actually doing it, ruining the country in their last grasp at stealing whatever is left to steal. Thuggocracy has never been as observable these days than it has been in the last decade. We could also observe that not tending to the infrastructures of the country for the last decade has some portions of Venezuela look like bombed out areas of Syria.....

Syria cannot be a parallel case for a future scenario in Venezuela. What is going on in Syria is really a religious war complicated by the fact that many religions reside there. Still, the idea that a fanatic group, afraid to lose its privileges, could be a way to retain power is not something that escapes the regime's plans. We could say that the attempt at creating a Chavez cult is a way to introduce something akin to a religion so as to excuse the immobility of society, becoming the reason why the desecrated opposition should never reach power no matter what its numbers may be. What protects us from a cruel civil war like in Syria is that we are too hedonistic and materialistic a society to have enough people fight it out to the bitter end. But we may well still get some form of civil war when people finally start realizing that they have been had by a mafia unwilling to share the loot. Then it will be fanatics versus malcontents, a strange mix for a civil war.

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Update

As I was typing this entry last night Erdogan decided to clear up Taksim square, and apparently he is about to do the same with Gezi park even though it was clear that the Taksim group was more political than Gezi one, more concerned with "environmental" matters.

Thus we need to remove once and for all the democratic label to Erdogan and his cronies, as he becomes a duplicitous liar, promising one day to dialogue with the Gezi occupants, only to gas them in full a few hours later. Very Chavez like, democracy to reach power, and then bye-bye to democracy.

NATO nattering nags Brazil

I could have never wished for a post to be validated so fast, a week later.  Last Saturday I was wondering about what part of the Capriles visit in Bogota may have been linked to Colombia sending a message to UNASUR, and Brazil its puppeteer. This week Colombia added more, much more, by its renewed desire to associate itself with the North Atlantic defense organization, NATO.  This of course sent the Venezuelan regime in an uproar and its associate in Bolivia to call for a UNASUR meeting against the danger of NATO invading our subcontinent I presume. When in fact all of this is further proof of a very deficient Brazilian foreign policy.


But let's start with the thuggish incoherence and down silliness of the Venezuelan regime on this respect.  Of course it should be afraid. When it says that the NATO invades countries it forgets to mention that it does not  invade democratic ones. So implicitly we have a subconscious admission of the regime that it is not a democracy and that at some point it may have to pay for it. Look no further than foreign minister Jaua stupidly grinning at Secretary of State John Kerry for granting him a few minutes of his time. And yet, a few breaths away Jaua who wants respect from all, including the US and the OAS wants again the Inter American Court for Human Rights to be downgraded because, well, Venezuela is denounced as a regime on the way of pariah status.

But the true aim of Bogota is not to reveal the nature of Caracas regime, we all know that even if some of us look elsewhere.  Bogota is also, among other things, implying that South American institutions lack seriousness and thus it prefers to look elsewhere for countries that may not love Colombia but at least will deal with Colombia on a serious basis. If you ask me, being a mere associate of the NATO group is definitely more reassuring than being a member of UNASUR where the only thing that matters is what Brazil says. The US of A may be the driving force of the NATO but it has been quite clear that in the last decade and a half its country members participate or not at will in NATO actions though the general aim is respected: democracy and freedom from tyranny. That the means may not be the best for the aims is another discussion.

Thus we are watching ALBA countries twist in horror at any NATO link with Colombia but Brazil rather silent. Interesting, no?  Dilma Rousseff got the message and even if she formally will at some point make an opposing comment, she knows that Colombia has sent her an ultimatum: deal with Mercosur and UNASUR seriously or watch us say good bye.

Who minds the Realm?

The decomposition of the regime goes apace. These last couple of days we peeled off yet another myth: that Maduro had an inkling on diplomacy. After all, he had been Chavez foreign secretary for more than half a decade before been anointed. Surely he must have learned something. But after having clashed, unnecessarily  with Spain, he clashed with even less reason and potentially more damage with Peru, ending today with a special cadena trying to clash with Obama and linking him to the Devil. (1)


In other words, Maduro was not a foreign minister, he was Chavez's errands boy. And this leaves us in a very dangerous situation. See, in serious countries, foreign policy is a state matter, directed by those in charge certainly, but always with a modicum of consult with the opposition since they could well assume the burden if they reach office. You certainly do not want to give them an extra blame against you, when they can claim to be cleaning your overseas mess, and you now in the opposition. Thus, the US president usually takes along a ranking Senator from the other side of the aisle in official state visits. And in parliamentary Europe, foreign minister go frequently to their parliament to account and explain. Even France's Sarkozy named a socialist foreign minister!

But in Venezuela foreign policy ceased to be a state policy around 2000-2002 and became strictly a policy to serve the interests of Chavez, in his dreams of continental grandeur and world epic. Foreign ministers came and went with a certain frequency until Chavez assumed it all in his hand, naming what was a mere errand boy for visits he could skip, Maduro. From then on there was no need to change foreign minsters anymore.

The problem is that now that Chavez is gone, nobody around Maduro remembers that Venezuela foreign policy should be a state matter, and nobody knows what to do with a system geared for Chavez interests when this one is not interested anymore. Maduro which was thought by many, never by yours truly by the way, to be a negotiating man, a polite and affable one, has revealed that he was a mere thug all along, to the point of being unable to call on Cabello after this one has had beaten up the opposition in Venezuela's National Assembly. No matter what power struggle may be going inside chavismo, Cabello offered a great opportunity for Maduro to score a point and this one instead decided to sink further in world opinion.

I have been watching this week the first season of Games of Thrones and there was a line from the Varys character that seemed appropriate  When Ned Stark asked him who he served he replied that he served the Realm, "someone had to do it".  And today I thought of it because truly, I wonder if anyone in office today is serving the Realm of Venezuela. I would even settle for knowing that at least someone has the sense to feel the need to do it.

I am at a loss since Chavez left (I am not going to discuss the before here) to find any action inside chavismo which goes beyond personal interest, personal ambition, personal preservation. From Maduro to Cabello, from Tibisay to Luisa Estela, all rule against the state, the law, the tradition, the people, the whatever. All have in mind, strictly, the "what's in for me?"  No decisive economic measure has been taken besides a devastating devaluation done on the run to secure election funding. No new law has been offered except for a ruling on the work law which is going to slow down economy even further. No attempt at finding stability, any stability, has been done; unless you count repression as a road to stability. Nothing but pet projects and posturing.

And after the latest Maduro outburst to make enemies when what we need are friends, I truly wonder if anyone inside the regime is minding the country, if at least one of them is going to say "enough!".  I suppose they all know what the Cuban masters did to Eddard Stark.

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1) No need to go into details. Maduro reacted to a mere statement from Obama where this one said it was ridiculous to detain as a "spy" a mere naive movie maker.  Same exaggeration with Peru where the foreign minster, provisional head of UNASUR, asked for peace and tolerance and was insulted, ambassador to Lima recalled, just to call it over within hours as if nothing. And to make sure he would make Santos further uncomfortable with him, he accused Uribe to want to kill him.