A ¡NO! for reason

I have read so many idiots in the last three hours that I am forced to write about the Colombien plebiscite of today. Never mind that it will also have consequences for Venezuela.

When you go on vacation to Cartagena and think you
have been whitewashed by your travel agent

I heard "Brexit again! Trump next!"
I read the NYT being shocked
I see people wondering how could Colombians be so stupid, ungrateful, war loving folks!?

So let´s bring some of that hubris down, shall we?

First, the idiots doing amalgam. Today's vote in Colombian is not remotely close to the conditions of Brexit or Trump. Colombia is a, partially, warn torn country where everyone knows first or second hand the consequences of decades of a FARC guerrilla cum narko organization. Most people who voted in Colombia knew full well what they were voting for even if using the same facts led to different choices. With Brexit and Trump we have people that do not have enough problems in their real lives and are thus looking for new ones.


Second, the shock of the NYT and many other pundits lulled into quite a lot of confidence of a SI result in a country notoriously wrong in its polling folks. Does anyone remember how Antanas Mockus was a shoo in against Santos 6 years ago? But even if we assume that polls are better in Colombia than what some past mistakes may want you to think, the "shock" reflects also an inexcusable ignorance about what moves people in Colombia. Here in Venezuela the regime was careful not to embark in excess optimism, for once. The opposition, if anything, was shocked that the SI rode high in the polls. We all knew better. The cartoon on the side tells you what we thought of the Trojan dove.

So we come to the explanation of what happened.  I had decided not to write about the whole peace process much because, well, I have other priorities these days. But inspiration came tonight. Let's first go into the errors of Santos,

We can start with hubris, thinking that because he defeated the FARC as Uribe defense minister he was the hawk that could make peace credible. He got so enamored of this role that when things started becoming difficult he was unable to backtrack and forged ahead until today's crash.

Then came the choice of Havana and Castro's guidance to negotiate with its allies, the communist FARC. If at first there could be a case written for it, if anything to guarantee the discretion that the Cuban jail brought, it soon became clear that Santos was negotiating on the FARC turf, on the FARC mood swings, etc. But it got worse. As Venezuela started to unravel fast, that this one was a guarantee of the process became a minus. Colombians simply could not help but think as to whether an agreement with the FARC, made in Havana under the eyes of Venezuela's colonial masters, had a Venezuelan like future in store.

And there was Santos reelection problem. For many reasons having been elected the first time by right wing votes he got his narrow reelection courtesy of  weak left wing votes. That gave back some strength to a left that most thought Colombians had outgrown in its ideologies and appeal. Many did not appreciate.

I suppose that a mix of all that, plus an economy not performing too well in recent years pushed Santos to make concessions he should not have done. But the man wants a Nobel and a blessing by Pope Francis, so a special judicial court, and special political rights, and no jail terms were a low price for the "surrendering" FARC. In fact, I understand that some thought that the FARC got it easier than what the paramilitaries got in the much criticized deal of Uribe.

I for one always thought that the NO would prevail. I was surprised to hear that polls gave a significant lead to the SI,  but "Mockus" I thought! Then again I found it fishy that one week before the vote Santos had in Cartagena a massive signature ceremony with all dressed in white and coming from all around the world, including the UN secretary. Before the vote?

But I suppose I had heard too many stories of Colombians leaving their Venezuelan lives to restart in Colombia. I had heard too often the more and more condescending tone used by Colombians when asked about Venezuela on TV. And more. It was clear to me that a large chunk of Colombians did not want to risk a Venezuelan like future and they were going to fight such prospect.

My surprise, if you ask me, is that the SI went as high as it went. But I understand that the campaign conditions were grossly unfavorable for the NO side . I suppose that rubbing often with FARC and Chavistas has taught Santos a few lessons on how to "win" elections.........

I am not going to speculate on what happens to Colombia next. Already all parts have announced that in spite of all the electoral threats and lies, they are all going to work together, now, to improve the current agreement. Which at least leaves me the satisfaction of shutting down fast a lot of creeps saying that Colombians are warmongering idiots.

What is interesting for this blog readership is the effect on Venezuela.

First, Santos has been way too kind on Maduro even if he obviously dislikes the regime. But he needed Venezuela support to secure the deal, understanding full well that a chavista Venezuela would be a haven for renegade FARCs wishing for a return to action at some future time. Never mind the drug traffic now using Venezuela as its main base.  This is no more. Now that penalties, even if not severe, will be applied to FARC leadership crimes, a secure base is less crucial for Santos or the FARC (if a deal is eventually reached, of course). Thus I suspect that Santos, in front of a totally unpalatable Maduro, will be more strict with Venezuela's abuse, and when done on Colombians in particular. In addition, being tougher on Venezuela (which is, face it, an increasingly irrelevant country) will bring him dividends while negotiating with Uribe folks the rewriting of the peace agreement.

For Venezuela itself we are getting rather bad news, The safe havens inside Venezuela are now well set and if anything Castro and the FARC are after today going to insist further on their safety and intervention in Venezuelan affairs. Maybe a little too much for the military taste. Maybe a little bit too much to make the necessary changes to avoid general starvation. Maybe a little bit too much for foreign countries who were made a mockery of in Cartagena a few days ago and now may want to make sure it does not happen again, in Cartagena or Caracas.

FARC soon at a Venezuelan arepera next to you

ABC journalist and bete noire of chavismo for all of the insider leaks he has been reporting, Emili Blasco, writes a piece in ABC about how the FARC is preparing its retreat to Venezuela once (before?) any peace treaty is signed with the Santos administration.

Since it is in Spanish a short summary follows, plus what I wrote on that already in 2012:

The argument of Blasco is that the closing of the Colombian Venezuelan border since last year was in fact an excuse to justify removing some of the military contingent there and allow thus for less surveillance. The objective would have been to ease the transfer from Colombia to Venezuela of some of the FARC weaponry, drug manufacturing and guerilla personnel that cannot remain safely inside Colombia once a peace treaty is signed (forget about a referendum on  it and an eventual enforcing, these are another matter).

That may be true, Blasco makes a good case. I would add to his case that the delay ad patres in governor election due this December is a powerful argument in his favor, something he did not mention.  Effectively, as chavismo is almost certain to lose most state houses, it is crucial for them to finish any resettlement of the FARC while finding ways to preserve at the very least the states where the FARC will find refuge. This is a tall order unless the regime decides to annul the elections or do a massive and obvious cheating, always a possibility with these desperate crazies. Then there is also the possibility of a negotiated election where the opposition gets all state houses except for those of Zulia, Guarico, Apure and Amazonas. It is not outlandish [sigh...]

In 2012 I did draw this map below where that whole chavo-narko-FARC strategy was put together (retaken in 2013).

How chavismo plans to offer refuge to FARC.
In light mauve the zones in Colombia where FARC and ELN concentrate before crossing over to Venezuela.

There you have it.

The saddest part of it all is that the FARC as well as the regime are absolutely oblivious of the consequences for the population' suffering that such a resettlement would entail. There goes to tell you how soulless a narko system becomes. Let's not forget that Castro has always sponsored drug trafficking to democracies as a way to weaken them. In Venezuela he seems that he has succeeded and in Colombia he is getting a new start courtesy of Santos (who in addition of his weaknesses will likely face soon million of hunger refugees from Venezuela). As far as chavismo, Castro and the FARC are concerned, poverty and violence are a good tool to control the populace.

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Hat tip for the Blasco article to my friend Fausta, always on top of such stuff.

Nelson Bocaranda confirms what this blog wrote in November 2012

In his Runrunes of today Nelson Bocaranada, regime prosecuted journalist, writes about an "incident" in Calabozo, Guarico State. Apparently the Colombian guerrilla FARC has set camp there and has started even shooting down security CICPC Venezuelan personnel that are investigating local crime. Meaning of course that the FARC in Guarico is already part of the local crime scene. Bocaranda also hints that when they discovered it was not local crime but guerrilla the agents may have been pulled back....

Last November, writing about the upcoming governor election I made a map as to how the importance of the result meshed with the interests of the FARC and chavismo to create a safe heaven for the guerrilla once the negotiations in Havana finish, if they ever. That is why the regime promoted Rodriguez Chacin, nothing short of a terrorist, to become governor of Guarico state. I have put the map again below and you can see that Calabozo, where Bocaranda describes the latest guerrilla activity is almost smack in the middle of my "refuge area".

See, it pays to read blogs, even for journalists like @NelsonBocaranda ...... :-)

PS: for details on the map and its why you need to go back to the original post.