The regime has made its business to turn into a fateful day the vast opposition rally planned for next Thursday September 1st. The regime has a lot to lose on that day, but it made sure that its losses would be greater than necessary. And, personally, at this point I do not see how the regime could rake any gain.
It all started when the opposition tired of waiting for a Recall Election date decided to mount a massive protest against Maduro's regime, that is, demanding his exit as soon as possible. Of course, the chosen way is to hold a Recall Election before January 10 2017. The opposition to Maduro has nothing to gain from any unconstitutional settlement of the political crisis: all polls give the opposition soaring numbers since last December stunning electoral victory. Besides, even if the opposition did not enjoy a 70+ against Maduro and wanted to do a stunt, how would it do that? The Venezuelan opposition has been deprived of arms, newspapers, TV, and even of its politicians as many are in jail.
The regime knows all of this, certainly. It also can read polls. And it knows that outside of the likes of Cuba or Nicaragua it has no international support left, at least of the kind that would speak favorably of Maduro. Even supposed allies like Putin or Correa are, well, rather discreet in their praise, if any.
The battle for the regime is lost. They are unwilling to change the economic system, to open up. As such the economy will keep spiraling down and soon there will be outright bouts of near starvation with all the political mess that comes along. The laws of the economy are finally speaking up in Venezuela and there is no hope that the only economic policy left for the regime, oil at 80 USD a barrel, will happen in the near future. And never mind its personnel as Venezuela is the only country we know of where its interior and security minister cannot travel out of the country least Interpol grabs him and sends him to a trial in the US. Needless to recall the awaited fate of other regime's luminaries.
Faced with what is predicted to be the largest anti regime rally since 2002/2003 the regime decided against the wise move: let it happen and ignore it the best you can, using this as a demonstration that democracy is not dead in Venezuela. Instead it has chosen the worst way to prove that this is indeed a dictatorship.
All sorts of means to block the rally are attempted, too long to list. Here follows the main ones.
- Threats of all type, verbal menaces from higher up in the regime
- Outright fascist firing of public employees that dare criticize in any way the regime's results (examples here, here and here)
- Forbidding Al Jazeera journalists from entering the country to cover the events
- Forbidding any private flight, even drones, until September 5, so that there would be no evidence of the large turnout, as if roof tops were not enough to establish that anyway. And it does not matter as the opposition announced it will fly drones anyway (so I can illustrate for you the mood)
- Blocking access to Caracas for the possibly 100+ thousand people that will show up from all parts of the country
- After months of absence reopen food fairs like Mercal so as to try to divert folks from the march to go and get some of the scarce food. Though it is not clear if it is just counter propaganda planted by the regime.
- Call for its own counter rally downtown Caracas to block the opposition possible march there
- Promises of all sorts for Caracas, all to be done by Christmas
- All sorts of conspiracy theories as to the opposition wanting to reedit April 11 2002 (from the hands of the Empire in the North, of course)
Etc...
But the worst assault has been on Voluntad Popular, the political party of Leopoldo Lopez, the cause celèbre of political prisoners. For the last week there has been an onslaught against the leadership of the party, from accusing the mayor of El Hatillo of smuggling arms, to take San Cristobal mayor from his sick bed in the middle of the night to send him to jail, to outright kidnapping of militants. The vindictiveness of the large concerted attack on Voluntad Popular is simply amazing. Other political parties are not buying: they know they are next. And the OAS least raised its tone as its secretary has issued, in Spanish for now, a long letter which resumes all fo the above and can be read as a stern warning against the regime.
We must wonder what is the regime seeking. Can it be so clumsy? Is there some master plan behind?
I am afraid that the regime seeks an act of violence that it can provoke easily itself by sending under cover to the rallies Thursday delinquents that will pretend to pin on the opposition a violence that the regime will have started itself. That would explain all of the conspiracy theories blurted these past few days and the arrest of Voluntad Popular leadership which will presumably bear the brunt of the accusation. The ridicule for the regime's cause that Voluntad Popular would have committed the crimes AFTER their incarceration does not seem to have been considered. But that is not the point.
A desperate regime is building a narrative to justify its September repression in the eyes of the followers it still has. In short, the regime is preparing itself to cut loose from the civilized world and drive into oblivion the Venezuelan populations just as the Cuban one was pushed down to nothing within months of the arrival of Fidel in 1958. All seems to point out to that strategy, from ignoring the OAS to put in jail Voluntad Popular leadership, the most active in the streets, the one that apparently must be threatening the most chavismo.
Let's not forget that the loudest voices inside chavismo are the ones most likely to go to jail as soon as they set foot outside of the country. They have nothing to lose anymore. Hence...
Which does not mean they will succeed and as they fail, well...
Showing posts with label narco-state. Show all posts
Showing posts with label narco-state. Show all posts
Tuesday, 30 August 2016
Thursday, 18 August 2016
FARC soon at a Venezuelan arepera next to you
ABC journalist and bete noire of chavismo for all of the insider leaks he has been reporting, Emili Blasco, writes a piece in ABC about how the FARC is preparing its retreat to Venezuela once (before?) any peace treaty is signed with the Santos administration.
Since it is in Spanish a short summary follows, plus what I wrote on that already in 2012:
The argument of Blasco is that the closing of the Colombian Venezuelan border since last year was in fact an excuse to justify removing some of the military contingent there and allow thus for less surveillance. The objective would have been to ease the transfer from Colombia to Venezuela of some of the FARC weaponry, drug manufacturing and guerilla personnel that cannot remain safely inside Colombia once a peace treaty is signed (forget about a referendum on it and an eventual enforcing, these are another matter).
That may be true, Blasco makes a good case. I would add to his case that the delay ad patres in governor election due this December is a powerful argument in his favor, something he did not mention. Effectively, as chavismo is almost certain to lose most state houses, it is crucial for them to finish any resettlement of the FARC while finding ways to preserve at the very least the states where the FARC will find refuge. This is a tall order unless the regime decides to annul the elections or do a massive and obvious cheating, always a possibility with these desperate crazies. Then there is also the possibility of a negotiated election where the opposition gets all state houses except for those of Zulia, Guarico, Apure and Amazonas. It is not outlandish [sigh...]
In 2012 I did draw this map below where that whole chavo-narko-FARC strategy was put together (retaken in 2013).
There you have it.
The saddest part of it all is that the FARC as well as the regime are absolutely oblivious of the consequences for the population' suffering that such a resettlement would entail. There goes to tell you how soulless a narko system becomes. Let's not forget that Castro has always sponsored drug trafficking to democracies as a way to weaken them. In Venezuela he seems that he has succeeded and in Colombia he is getting a new start courtesy of Santos (who in addition of his weaknesses will likely face soon million of hunger refugees from Venezuela). As far as chavismo, Castro and the FARC are concerned, poverty and violence are a good tool to control the populace.
--------------------------------------
Hat tip for the Blasco article to my friend Fausta, always on top of such stuff.
Since it is in Spanish a short summary follows, plus what I wrote on that already in 2012:
The argument of Blasco is that the closing of the Colombian Venezuelan border since last year was in fact an excuse to justify removing some of the military contingent there and allow thus for less surveillance. The objective would have been to ease the transfer from Colombia to Venezuela of some of the FARC weaponry, drug manufacturing and guerilla personnel that cannot remain safely inside Colombia once a peace treaty is signed (forget about a referendum on it and an eventual enforcing, these are another matter).
That may be true, Blasco makes a good case. I would add to his case that the delay ad patres in governor election due this December is a powerful argument in his favor, something he did not mention. Effectively, as chavismo is almost certain to lose most state houses, it is crucial for them to finish any resettlement of the FARC while finding ways to preserve at the very least the states where the FARC will find refuge. This is a tall order unless the regime decides to annul the elections or do a massive and obvious cheating, always a possibility with these desperate crazies. Then there is also the possibility of a negotiated election where the opposition gets all state houses except for those of Zulia, Guarico, Apure and Amazonas. It is not outlandish [sigh...]
In 2012 I did draw this map below where that whole chavo-narko-FARC strategy was put together (retaken in 2013).
 |
| How chavismo plans to offer refuge to FARC. In light mauve the zones in Colombia where FARC and ELN concentrate before crossing over to Venezuela. |
There you have it.
The saddest part of it all is that the FARC as well as the regime are absolutely oblivious of the consequences for the population' suffering that such a resettlement would entail. There goes to tell you how soulless a narko system becomes. Let's not forget that Castro has always sponsored drug trafficking to democracies as a way to weaken them. In Venezuela he seems that he has succeeded and in Colombia he is getting a new start courtesy of Santos (who in addition of his weaknesses will likely face soon million of hunger refugees from Venezuela). As far as chavismo, Castro and the FARC are concerned, poverty and violence are a good tool to control the populace.
--------------------------------------
Hat tip for the Blasco article to my friend Fausta, always on top of such stuff.
Wednesday, 11 November 2015
Flowers and letters: no romance for the revolutionary corpse
It is hard to underestimate the weigh of this week's events on an agonizing Maduro's headed regime. Even your prudent blogger is cautiously allowing himself to believe that yes, indeed, the regime's life should be counted in weeks... Or that at the very least a major change is just around the corner.
The week started with the reply sent to Tibisay Lucena by OAS Secretary Luis Almagro. See, Almagro got really upset about the flippancy of Tibisay Lucena, head of the CNE, Venezuela's electoral board. The woman, on orders from the regime that she is only too happy to oblige, is refusing ANY supervision to the crucial electoral process coming on December 6.
As it turns out the international community has been sending lots of hints as to the validity and fairness of the coming election. These hints have not been duly responded. Thus these hints became more and more direct, asking formally the CNE to allow real international observation, not the mere tourist tour on election day by "friendly" countries which in addition are barred from direct comment on elections. Lucena (and so many others in the regime) have become ruder and ruder, going as far as saying that people like Almagro were interfering on sovereign matters (injerencia). In short: butt off.
The latest curt and undiplomatic reply of Tibisay to Luis was just too much for him and he replied in a long 18 pages letter (PDF in Spanish here). He needed that much space because the letter reads like the longest most comprehensive indictment on Tibisay Lucena's work. Nothing was missed, from the cheapest electoral treacheries, to the lack of access by the opposition to TV, through all the material abuses of the regime, without forgetting political prisoners. Almagro even shows his clear understanding of gerrymandering as done in Venezuela. All, ALL is there. Asking for an observation is in fact a courtesy of sorts, to offer a chance for the regime to state its case.
This letter is of utmost importance because he lays at the feet of Lucena all the guilt for any negative consequence that the fraudulent elections may have. Almagro's team (and allies as he cannot have sent such a letter without the acquiescence of a few OAS members) is absolutely clear on that guilt: either Lucena has been promoting that treachery or she has remained silent in front of it. In the end all will be her direct responsibility. In short, the letter is, well, an ultimatum.
But any rational answer that the regime may have considered to Almagro's letter was taking a back seat when we learned today that two close relatives of Cilia Flores, Maduro's wife and probably the real power behind the throne, were arrested in Haiti as 800 kilos deal of cocaine traffic was busted. As the amateurs that these kids were they blurted immediately their status and their diplomatic passport. To no avail of course for the DEA personnel. Within hours all major papers in the world have been carrying the news that Maduro's close step-relatives were busted, and busted bad.
No link needed, just pick up WSJ, NYT, El Pais, Veja, etc... for details. In short, the two kids fell like amateurs trusting what seemed a rather casual contact from Honduras who was in fact a DEA undercover agent. Cilia Flores nepotism has defrayed the chronicles so there is no surprise in seeing these kids with a high sense of entitlement showing their diplomatic passport (though being nobodies), and promptly saying that they were Maduro's family, and then stating that the drug belonged to Diosdado and Tarek El Aissami (Aragua's governor, on the DEA list). These kids are going to chirp as much as asked.
One can only wonder if they were not set up from the start by a rival Venezuelan drug cartel to sink another one.
Now, this is a big problem. The only way for Cilia and Nicolas out of that mess is to condemn the kids and ask for justice to apply firmly. But we all know that this is not going to happen. So, what? We may have all sorts of invective against the US. Even a final break with closing embassies. Perhaps even a formal notification of Venezuela leaving the OAS (remember the letter at the beginning). The regime may even go as far as cancelling the election for "national security reasons since diplomatic passports are not respected".
But nobody outside of Venezuela will follow. Diplomatic immunity is no blanket immunity to begin with. And it applies only in the country where your mission is. Unless the Flores kids were attached to the Venezuelan embassy in Port au Prince there is little Venezuela can do. A crime is a crime and drug traffic is a crime everywhere in the world except in Venezuela, it seems. Though we can be sure that Haiti will stop receiving its allowances (and may have stopped to do so for a while which means they turned to the US where the bucks are).
I really do not see how the regime can wiggle out of this one. Someone will have to pay, if anything for allowing such a mess to happen, for being such a careless operator. The facts are clear. The world has served notice to the regime that its elections are rigged. The world has announced to the regime that its narco state character is not acceptable. The DEA has learned its lesson form the Carvajal fiasco in Aruba and now they are ready to pick up regime narco officials one by one, as soon as they set foot outside of Venezuela. There must be feverish meetings tonight at Miraflores Palace and major military camps.
I do not know what is going to happen, but something is going to. Since the odds of Cilia abandoning her brood are nil (never mind that they implicated Maduro's own son) we must look elsewhere. Since this is an irrational thug system anything crazy can happen. I would dare to suggest that the only way the regime can try to limit damage from this, and maybe even gain some leverage, is by forcing Maduro to resign in the coming days.
Maduro and Cilia are now beyond "damaged goods", even for their Cuban puppet masters. Forcing them to resign would have one immediate effect: suspend legislative elections where the spread is now reaching 20% against the regime in polls. In a presidential system presidential elections come first and the regime can hope that a presidential election may favor an opposition division while the anti Maduro chavista base may decide to come back to the regime once Maduro is out. Legislative elections can be held later. If the regime loses the presidency it will not matter much for chavismo in the Assembly; if it retains the presidency then it will be easier to retain a legislative majority. Or so would the strategy go. It would be easy to play around electoral agenda using primaries, etc, to postpone presidential elections all the way until February/March and legislative ones all the way until May or June.
That is what I would do if I were the regime, try to gain a few months in the hope oil prices go up again, or that opposition leadership is all in jail.
At any rate, tonight I truly feel for the first time that something has been set into motion, for better or for worse.
PS: note that 800 seem to be a magic kabalistic number for chavismo, like in the Antonini cash bag for Kirchner reelection or the 800 kilos of cocaine in Haiti.
The week started with the reply sent to Tibisay Lucena by OAS Secretary Luis Almagro. See, Almagro got really upset about the flippancy of Tibisay Lucena, head of the CNE, Venezuela's electoral board. The woman, on orders from the regime that she is only too happy to oblige, is refusing ANY supervision to the crucial electoral process coming on December 6.
As it turns out the international community has been sending lots of hints as to the validity and fairness of the coming election. These hints have not been duly responded. Thus these hints became more and more direct, asking formally the CNE to allow real international observation, not the mere tourist tour on election day by "friendly" countries which in addition are barred from direct comment on elections. Lucena (and so many others in the regime) have become ruder and ruder, going as far as saying that people like Almagro were interfering on sovereign matters (injerencia). In short: butt off.
The latest curt and undiplomatic reply of Tibisay to Luis was just too much for him and he replied in a long 18 pages letter (PDF in Spanish here). He needed that much space because the letter reads like the longest most comprehensive indictment on Tibisay Lucena's work. Nothing was missed, from the cheapest electoral treacheries, to the lack of access by the opposition to TV, through all the material abuses of the regime, without forgetting political prisoners. Almagro even shows his clear understanding of gerrymandering as done in Venezuela. All, ALL is there. Asking for an observation is in fact a courtesy of sorts, to offer a chance for the regime to state its case.
This letter is of utmost importance because he lays at the feet of Lucena all the guilt for any negative consequence that the fraudulent elections may have. Almagro's team (and allies as he cannot have sent such a letter without the acquiescence of a few OAS members) is absolutely clear on that guilt: either Lucena has been promoting that treachery or she has remained silent in front of it. In the end all will be her direct responsibility. In short, the letter is, well, an ultimatum.
But any rational answer that the regime may have considered to Almagro's letter was taking a back seat when we learned today that two close relatives of Cilia Flores, Maduro's wife and probably the real power behind the throne, were arrested in Haiti as 800 kilos deal of cocaine traffic was busted. As the amateurs that these kids were they blurted immediately their status and their diplomatic passport. To no avail of course for the DEA personnel. Within hours all major papers in the world have been carrying the news that Maduro's close step-relatives were busted, and busted bad.
No link needed, just pick up WSJ, NYT, El Pais, Veja, etc... for details. In short, the two kids fell like amateurs trusting what seemed a rather casual contact from Honduras who was in fact a DEA undercover agent. Cilia Flores nepotism has defrayed the chronicles so there is no surprise in seeing these kids with a high sense of entitlement showing their diplomatic passport (though being nobodies), and promptly saying that they were Maduro's family, and then stating that the drug belonged to Diosdado and Tarek El Aissami (Aragua's governor, on the DEA list). These kids are going to chirp as much as asked.
One can only wonder if they were not set up from the start by a rival Venezuelan drug cartel to sink another one.
Now, this is a big problem. The only way for Cilia and Nicolas out of that mess is to condemn the kids and ask for justice to apply firmly. But we all know that this is not going to happen. So, what? We may have all sorts of invective against the US. Even a final break with closing embassies. Perhaps even a formal notification of Venezuela leaving the OAS (remember the letter at the beginning). The regime may even go as far as cancelling the election for "national security reasons since diplomatic passports are not respected".
But nobody outside of Venezuela will follow. Diplomatic immunity is no blanket immunity to begin with. And it applies only in the country where your mission is. Unless the Flores kids were attached to the Venezuelan embassy in Port au Prince there is little Venezuela can do. A crime is a crime and drug traffic is a crime everywhere in the world except in Venezuela, it seems. Though we can be sure that Haiti will stop receiving its allowances (and may have stopped to do so for a while which means they turned to the US where the bucks are).
I really do not see how the regime can wiggle out of this one. Someone will have to pay, if anything for allowing such a mess to happen, for being such a careless operator. The facts are clear. The world has served notice to the regime that its elections are rigged. The world has announced to the regime that its narco state character is not acceptable. The DEA has learned its lesson form the Carvajal fiasco in Aruba and now they are ready to pick up regime narco officials one by one, as soon as they set foot outside of Venezuela. There must be feverish meetings tonight at Miraflores Palace and major military camps.
I do not know what is going to happen, but something is going to. Since the odds of Cilia abandoning her brood are nil (never mind that they implicated Maduro's own son) we must look elsewhere. Since this is an irrational thug system anything crazy can happen. I would dare to suggest that the only way the regime can try to limit damage from this, and maybe even gain some leverage, is by forcing Maduro to resign in the coming days.
Maduro and Cilia are now beyond "damaged goods", even for their Cuban puppet masters. Forcing them to resign would have one immediate effect: suspend legislative elections where the spread is now reaching 20% against the regime in polls. In a presidential system presidential elections come first and the regime can hope that a presidential election may favor an opposition division while the anti Maduro chavista base may decide to come back to the regime once Maduro is out. Legislative elections can be held later. If the regime loses the presidency it will not matter much for chavismo in the Assembly; if it retains the presidency then it will be easier to retain a legislative majority. Or so would the strategy go. It would be easy to play around electoral agenda using primaries, etc, to postpone presidential elections all the way until February/March and legislative ones all the way until May or June.
That is what I would do if I were the regime, try to gain a few months in the hope oil prices go up again, or that opposition leadership is all in jail.
At any rate, tonight I truly feel for the first time that something has been set into motion, for better or for worse.
PS: note that 800 seem to be a magic kabalistic number for chavismo, like in the Antonini cash bag for Kirchner reelection or the 800 kilos of cocaine in Haiti.
Monday, 23 September 2013
The Venezuelan narco-state caught pants down in Paris: a price to pay
I need to come back to this 1.3 tons of cocaine seized in Paris airport because I think it is as clear an example for all to see on how deep into narco-statism we have descended, and how the rest of the world knows it and deals accordingly.
Once one gets through the massive amount of hot air emissions from journalists in search of front lines we can find a few pieces that start explaining how things may have worked out. True, the French police is not going to give all the necessary precision because they need to hold a few trump cards for future shipments. The magazine Le Point in France offers one of the few serious analysis on how the shipment may have made it to the Air France flight: the drug may have been in overweight bags but it most likely was not shipped through the luggage section of the plane but as freight. Thus the complicity inside the airport is not with the passenger attending personnel but through the "contractor" that distributes freight among the different airlines. This of course does not exonerate Air France since it should have checked better the contents of its freight holds. But it opens the field of wise speculation.
30+ overweight luggage had to enter into Maiquetia/Simon Bolivar (MIQ) through a small truck. We are talking a 2-3T plus vehicle here. One supposes that such a truck is inspected entering any, ANY international airport of the world. Clearly that step was voided here.
The truck had to circulate through the airport and there are restrictions as to who can drive where inside. Clearly we have there not only security violations but also administrative fault from the airport itself. Amen of where the hell 30+ overweight bags were stored for 1? 2? 5? days before the flight.
If we take a number of 35 suit cases for 1.3 tons we have 38 kilos per piece. Anyone taking a plane these days know that you are simply not allowed a 35 kilo luggage even if you pay excess: a special procedure is set in place when you carry overweight stuff. No baggage handler at MIQ complained, that we know of, on September 11 when supposedly the drug was loaded. Interesting detail, no?
Since the luggage went likely through fret then passenger personnel at check in did not see it. But what about Air France personnel? are they not supposed to check the fret embarked?
Last and not least MIQ is reputed internationally as a true pain in the a.. for "security check". As I wrote, bags are opened BEFORE check in and they go all through it without any consideration, take away what they want form it, and as Miguel wrote, you can even be sent for a body X-ray to make sure you have drug in your intestines. The Nazional Guard has no qualms in pushing you through all of these abuses and delaying flights for as long as they please. You are even subjected often to a last body and cabin bag search before stepping inside your plane. How come that cargo freight container went through without trouble? Aren't there supposed to be scanners for these containers as they are for bags since we regularly hear passengers called to custom to open their bags?
I probably can come up with yet more questions, but this above should suffice to make it clear that there must have been MANY security breaches, from the airport administration, from the security personnel and from at least one Air France personnel. I am not going to speculate about what happened in Paris since clearly the traffickers expected clear sailing. After all, Paris did catch the shipment. But one thing is certain, adding the people directly involved in the shipment and those that pretended to see nothing we are talking of around a dozen folks involved (without counting those involved in bringing the drug from Colombia to MIQ in spite of all the constant road checks that cost my business hours in delays and bribes).
And yet the regime was speedy in finding three fall guys, three low ranking military from the Nazional Guard, people without any real authority: a lieutenant and two sergeants who probably would not be caught dead doing physical work loading the fret container..... And quickly advertised a drug capture inside Venezuela of half a ton, taking the opportunity to insist stupidly that Maduro in China is informed of that and gives orders himself as to proceed with the investigation. Geeezzz........
Sorry, but no deal. To ship a ton of drug from Colombia to MIQ, to have it board a regular flight to Paris, you need to coordinate security personnel at a level that cannot be possibly achieved by a mere Lieutenant no matter how skilled he may be at computing or something. To begin with, road blocks are not computerized .... Here, there is at least one General and a couple of helpers strategically placed, probably at Colonel level, to make sure the shipment made it through and through. The three fall guys, for all that I know, may not even have known what was in the container (though they certainly should have suspected it). They simply were the security personnel on duty on September 11 and given orders not to look closely at the stuff. Or, charitably, blackmailed into it as probably was the case of the involved Air France personnel of Venezuelan origin.
An operation like the one of Air France flight can only be mounted in a country that is deeply rotten, deeply corrupted, where drug traffickers have no problem to find all the help they require for their business. Let's not forget something: this is not the first time it happens, from planes landing in emergency in Mali coming from Venezuela with tons of the stuff, to a plane in the Canary Islands, to boats, to whatever..... What happened this time is only a stepping up of the chutzpah of these people.
But at least inside of Venezuela I am not the only one to think that we are a rotten to the core country. Capriles for once was prompt in calling a corrupt spade, a corrupt spade. At least the international scandal is forcing the interior minister to go on record to admit that at least 20 people are being interrogated on the subject. But no one is holding breath: if a General were to be indicted in that event it could be the occasion of a dangerous unraveling of the power base of the regime which relies on massive laundering of public monies stolen to and deep permissiveness on drug traffic in spite of the widely publicized drug hauls.
To all of this we must add one thing. The French government has claimed that the shipment left Caracas on September 11 and yet the haul was made public on the 20th, on for all that we know that was the day Venezuela was told. I do not want to speculate much on that but if indeed the regime was so late in being warned it can only be coming from the experience of the international security community as to how unreliable their Venezuelan colleagues are today. On a public relation point of view, one thing is to catch a stolen fisherman ship with tons of coke on board, another one is to use a normal passenger flight for a ton. This is a degree of magnitude that should not be crossed and I suspect that Venezuela will, for once, pay a price for such a mistake. Not only overseas but also in Venezuela where the spectacular nature of the haul is already used by Capriles. We shall see but for once I am optimistic: it was too much and surely someone inside the regime is going to use that for political advantage.
Once one gets through the massive amount of hot air emissions from journalists in search of front lines we can find a few pieces that start explaining how things may have worked out. True, the French police is not going to give all the necessary precision because they need to hold a few trump cards for future shipments. The magazine Le Point in France offers one of the few serious analysis on how the shipment may have made it to the Air France flight: the drug may have been in overweight bags but it most likely was not shipped through the luggage section of the plane but as freight. Thus the complicity inside the airport is not with the passenger attending personnel but through the "contractor" that distributes freight among the different airlines. This of course does not exonerate Air France since it should have checked better the contents of its freight holds. But it opens the field of wise speculation.
30+ overweight luggage had to enter into Maiquetia/Simon Bolivar (MIQ) through a small truck. We are talking a 2-3T plus vehicle here. One supposes that such a truck is inspected entering any, ANY international airport of the world. Clearly that step was voided here.
The truck had to circulate through the airport and there are restrictions as to who can drive where inside. Clearly we have there not only security violations but also administrative fault from the airport itself. Amen of where the hell 30+ overweight bags were stored for 1? 2? 5? days before the flight.
If we take a number of 35 suit cases for 1.3 tons we have 38 kilos per piece. Anyone taking a plane these days know that you are simply not allowed a 35 kilo luggage even if you pay excess: a special procedure is set in place when you carry overweight stuff. No baggage handler at MIQ complained, that we know of, on September 11 when supposedly the drug was loaded. Interesting detail, no?
Since the luggage went likely through fret then passenger personnel at check in did not see it. But what about Air France personnel? are they not supposed to check the fret embarked?
Last and not least MIQ is reputed internationally as a true pain in the a.. for "security check". As I wrote, bags are opened BEFORE check in and they go all through it without any consideration, take away what they want form it, and as Miguel wrote, you can even be sent for a body X-ray to make sure you have drug in your intestines. The Nazional Guard has no qualms in pushing you through all of these abuses and delaying flights for as long as they please. You are even subjected often to a last body and cabin bag search before stepping inside your plane. How come that cargo freight container went through without trouble? Aren't there supposed to be scanners for these containers as they are for bags since we regularly hear passengers called to custom to open their bags?
I probably can come up with yet more questions, but this above should suffice to make it clear that there must have been MANY security breaches, from the airport administration, from the security personnel and from at least one Air France personnel. I am not going to speculate about what happened in Paris since clearly the traffickers expected clear sailing. After all, Paris did catch the shipment. But one thing is certain, adding the people directly involved in the shipment and those that pretended to see nothing we are talking of around a dozen folks involved (without counting those involved in bringing the drug from Colombia to MIQ in spite of all the constant road checks that cost my business hours in delays and bribes).
And yet the regime was speedy in finding three fall guys, three low ranking military from the Nazional Guard, people without any real authority: a lieutenant and two sergeants who probably would not be caught dead doing physical work loading the fret container..... And quickly advertised a drug capture inside Venezuela of half a ton, taking the opportunity to insist stupidly that Maduro in China is informed of that and gives orders himself as to proceed with the investigation. Geeezzz........
Sorry, but no deal. To ship a ton of drug from Colombia to MIQ, to have it board a regular flight to Paris, you need to coordinate security personnel at a level that cannot be possibly achieved by a mere Lieutenant no matter how skilled he may be at computing or something. To begin with, road blocks are not computerized .... Here, there is at least one General and a couple of helpers strategically placed, probably at Colonel level, to make sure the shipment made it through and through. The three fall guys, for all that I know, may not even have known what was in the container (though they certainly should have suspected it). They simply were the security personnel on duty on September 11 and given orders not to look closely at the stuff. Or, charitably, blackmailed into it as probably was the case of the involved Air France personnel of Venezuelan origin.
An operation like the one of Air France flight can only be mounted in a country that is deeply rotten, deeply corrupted, where drug traffickers have no problem to find all the help they require for their business. Let's not forget something: this is not the first time it happens, from planes landing in emergency in Mali coming from Venezuela with tons of the stuff, to a plane in the Canary Islands, to boats, to whatever..... What happened this time is only a stepping up of the chutzpah of these people.
But at least inside of Venezuela I am not the only one to think that we are a rotten to the core country. Capriles for once was prompt in calling a corrupt spade, a corrupt spade. At least the international scandal is forcing the interior minister to go on record to admit that at least 20 people are being interrogated on the subject. But no one is holding breath: if a General were to be indicted in that event it could be the occasion of a dangerous unraveling of the power base of the regime which relies on massive laundering of public monies stolen to and deep permissiveness on drug traffic in spite of the widely publicized drug hauls.
To all of this we must add one thing. The French government has claimed that the shipment left Caracas on September 11 and yet the haul was made public on the 20th, on for all that we know that was the day Venezuela was told. I do not want to speculate much on that but if indeed the regime was so late in being warned it can only be coming from the experience of the international security community as to how unreliable their Venezuelan colleagues are today. On a public relation point of view, one thing is to catch a stolen fisherman ship with tons of coke on board, another one is to use a normal passenger flight for a ton. This is a degree of magnitude that should not be crossed and I suspect that Venezuela will, for once, pay a price for such a mistake. Not only overseas but also in Venezuela where the spectacular nature of the haul is already used by Capriles. We shall see but for once I am optimistic: it was too much and surely someone inside the regime is going to use that for political advantage.
Saturday, 21 September 2013
Airplanes ferrying drugs and pseudo presidents out of Venezuela
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| Valls, French Interior Minister, receiving Venezuelan exports to Paris |
Let's start with the aerial flyby that was not.
Apparently Maduro would have us believe that the nasty US did not want him to fly over Puerto Rico. But now that some of the dust settled it looks that the maneuver was a clumsy one to try to paint the US as evil, a maneuver that has all the looks of conspiracy judging how fast the friends of Maduro supported him: Evo and Correa. Neuman at the New York Times gives the full details, including the unnecessary detour over Puerto Rico when seasoned travelers to Paris from Caracas know they fly over either Guadeloupe or Martinique, according to the winds. The AP also echoes the doubt about how much of the "incident" was messy Venezuelan organization or deliberate entrapment to score an easy point. Interestingly the scene also revealed once again that Venezuelan presidents travel though Cuban planes, perpetuating the mystery as to whatever happened to the two presidential airplanes of the country, the inherited one from pre Chavez and the custom made airbus that costed gazillions and yet flew only a very few years with Chavez on board.
Whatever the political points Maduro and co. were trying to score (in preparation of a UN performance in a few days?), it was erased by the announcement that in Paris an Air France flight was found with enough unregistered luggage inside to carry 200 + millions worth of cocaine. We are talking over a ton here, carried in 30 bags not linked to any of the passengers in the flight. Paris claims 6 arrests already. No word of any arrest in Venezuela yet....... By the way, the French Interior minister says it was the biggest drug catch in the Parisian area ever.
So many questions.... First, let me start reminding the reader that there are a few high officials of the Venezuelan regime on the DEA shit list for drug trafficking, an update kindly provided in relation to this news by the LAHT. Thus it is no surprise that Caracas airport at Maiquetia would be sooner or later the origin of a major drug scandal. After all, when you are a high ranking military in a narco-state eventually you do not see why you should not start using regular airports instead of country side landing strips for your airborne cargo.
Second, this level of gumption, 30 suitcases, through a major international airline, implies levels of narco corruption inside Maiquetia that are simply unexpected. 30 suitcases are not the same thing than trying to pass a single suit case with someone waiting for it in some European airport. We are talking major cooperation here, that has to include not only someone inside Air France but also the security system of the airport and its management. Amen of the reception committee in Paris. But that the French caught it and have already 6 arrests speaks volumes. The catch was dated on September 11 and published only today. Surely by today the French government must have warned the Venezuelan one and asked for a local investigation of which not a whiff was heard yet. Again: Venezuela is now a narco-state and arresting a single military (at least at the level of colonel for such an operation) would imply a major unraveling. So we can expect nothing, besides a pro forma declaration that an investigation will be done (note: they even got the date wrong, September 20 when it was the 11).
Third, for those who have had the misfortune to go through Maiquetia security this year. The Nazional Guard and the bolivarian militia make a big show to register luggage before check in, supposedly to find drugs and assorted stuff. They go as far as throwing to the garbage your snacks and presents (or keeping it for themselves) and even manhandle your underwear and sniff women's garments. Sniffed by the guard, not a dog. I know that from more than one person. I barely escaped the search last May because of a glitch in their system. Check-in lines at Maiquetia are horrendous because of that unjust search when in the past you had special scanners that have now disappeared, gone who knows where. Curiously on returns flights the search is light if any.......
If anyone has still a doubt, Venezuela is a Narco State now and I wonder if the huff and puff of Maduro against the US was not in prevision of they knowing what was coming from France......
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PS: added later. I wonder if the "defection" of Rafael Isea, former Chavez red boy, minister of wherever there was big money to manage, former Aragua state governor, may have any link to these stories. Isea after a week of rumors confirmed himself that he was in the US, resigning a juicy job at a revolutionary joint to finish a Masters he started 9 years ago.....
Isea was pointed out in major money laundering activities and was about to be formally investigated by the regime, now that he does not benefit anymore of Chavez protection. He is reported having made a deal with the DEA in the US, though he denies it. Then again he does that only through twitter, unable to account for himself in person in front of journalists.
You draw your own conclusions. But I can assure you that Isea is just one among the many chavista crooks and that it is all a matter of internal account settings. Mafia style.
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