I thought already when I was writing the communism decree that the regime wants to pass would be quite something already for a single day. I even started publishing it before I finished or corrected such was my state of discombobulation. But tonight there is yet two more news, maybe more important because that decree can still be rejected by the Assembly. But apparently there are bigger fishes to fry.
President Maduro finally came tonight for his state of the Union. The speech was long, vapid, misleading when not blurting outrageous lies when vaunting the "successes" of 2015. The excitement came through the fact that he showed up when a few days ago it seemed that the rebelliousness of Diosdado Cabello with the support of some judges could carry the day and send the Assembly into nothingness. This can still happen but I have big doubts tonight about it ever happening.
The Assembly "caved in" and suspended for a while the controversial representatives and thus Cabello and the Court had no other option but to recognize the validity of the Assembly for the time being. Thus showeth up Maduro.
All fine and dandy. The speech is given in cadena, that is, simultaneous mandatory broadcast on all audio visual media. ALL. Important detail for later. The speech lasted for over two jours but I only connected to it through the end, following it on tweeter before (see my time line for highlights in Spanish or English according to assumed public, on the right side of this blog).
Maduro said nothing besides his usual assortment of insults and what not. Yet he seemed rather subdued, a little bit lost. At the end, as expected, he handed the microphone to Ramos Allup as chair of the Assembly which we would have thought would limit himself to pronounce the protocolar farewell. It was not. Ramos Allup launched himself in a big speech.
Now, why was this speech so important, well managed by the way considering the ordeal that today must have been for him today?
You need to know that just like in the US, all powers are represented (5 in Venezuela, 4 of them clapping at any inanity of Maduro; in the US no Justice would be caught dead applauding a president at SOTU!). You need to know that when Ramos Allup took over the cadena continued and the state TV, VTV,which was the only one allowed to transmit live on airwaves remained fixed on Ramos Allup the whole time, probably waiting for the order to cut off, an order that never came. It was the first time in 17 years that the country saw a cadena by someone else than a chavista stating the official line. Thus the fixation and the novelty gave more reach to Ramos Allup than he may have deserved.
Of course the response of Ramos Allup was civil but frequently mischievous in pointing out the flaws in Maduro's speech. But what made the reply to Maduro a hit were the following, in no order of importance:
- VTV and state media attack him all the time, which is OK, he does not care (I have got my mileage he said). What is not OK is that he does not have the right to reply. VTV et.al. addicts cannot pretend to ignore that anymore. The more so that the biggest vilifier of Ramos Allup and the opposotion is Diosdado Cabello show "con el mazo dando".
- He looked at the other three powers and reminded them that the only two sovereign powers, those elected by the people were the president and the Assembly and thus the other three were "derivative" powers. That is pointed at a time when one, the judicial power, is trying to unseat representatives without even the semblant of a trial (never mind of the well documented treacheries of the other two)
- He addressed the attending military top brass and explained them that the Bolivar that Chavez invented IS NOT the historical one, helping his cause with pictures and quotes. He explained that there was no room for ANY president portrait in a National Assembly. He went ahead and told them that the army was not there to do politics and he finished by making it crystal clear that neither Maduro nor him wanted a coup of any type. Reminding them, by the way, that about two weeks before April 2002 he was on record that there was a military coup in preparation against Chavez.
Now, guess who was the real target of this speech? Maduro? Guess again.
I think that what happened tonight besides revealing to the hard core chavismo what parliamentary democracy is all about, is that Ramos Allup offered his hand to Maduro to deal with the economic crisis together AND, most importantly AND, get rid of Diosdado Cabello who is managing to put everyone against himself without solving a simple problem.
It is of course a big gambit if what I write is right. After all, a reader could reply, Ramos Allup is on record to want to remove Maduro from office in the next 6 months. But the difference here, clearly expressed tonight, is that Ramos Allup does not have any particular grief against Maduro, he just wants the system gone. So, he implies, we can either prepare an honorable exit for Maduro (resigning or constitutional shortening of the term, a mere referendum would suffice) or a nastier one. The villain here, for all, is Diosdado Cabello. And you could sense that the message had been received in the rather subdued declarations Cabello gave to the press when the ceremony was over.
And since I am speculating might as well go for it. Ramos Allup offer is that if Cabello tones down or retires he will not surrender him to the DEA. As long as he remains in Venezuela in quiet retirement he can enjoy his loot (though I am sure he will be asked to return a portion of the stolen one). The offer to Maduro is that the opposition will help him taking some hard measures but the condition is that power is shared. That is, the judicial illegal nominations be reverted and the electoral board becomes truly neutral. This is the red line. Then if Maduro cannot go all the way with the necessary economic measures he can resign and retire in Venezuela, at least for a while. Or have his term shortened through a constitutional amendment that can be voted on fast, without any campaign needed. And all of this gives time tot he army to clean up its act and pick among themselves the 2-3 generals that must be sacrificed to the DEA so the other can remain free, as long as they do not leave Venezuela.
You know, I have the nagging feeling that the whole show was sort of planned by Ramos and the new Vice President Isturriz...... And probably worked out much better than the two wily coyotes ever hoped it would.
Showing posts with label cabello. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cabello. Show all posts
Friday, 15 January 2016
Monday, 11 January 2016
Judicial coup for dummies
So I am late into the fray, just learning about an hour ago what the High Court has done today. See, I live in reality. I had a delicate situation with my S.O. and, besides appointments, part of the day was to look all around for rather simple antibiotics, and pain killers and anti inflammatory pills. We found two of them, not the ones recommended by the physician albeit acceptably less suitable alternatives.
In a waiting room I got wind of the declarations of the new minister for urban agriculture. I found the video tonight (at end of this entry). Indeed, she wants everyone to grab a tin can, and empty bottle, put some dirt and recycle the roots of any vegetable we can, starting with green onions.
Today we also learned that Venezuela oil barrel has reached its lowest price since 2002.
Recycling the root system of green onions? Can I plant pot instead so as to escape reality?
All of this to give you a little context for what comes next.
The battle between the electoral hall of the high court (e-TSJ for short) and democracy keeps apace. The e-TSJ has decided today (even though they should be on judicial holiday) that seating the representatives for Amazonas was illegal and puts the National Assembly into contempt. And thus ANY decision of the N.A. is void and will be.
There is no point in going back into the detail of the contentious. For recall what the e-TSJ has done is illegal for many reasons: all appeals in front of the electoral board CNE have not been exhausted; there is no legal emergency; even with three seats less the N.A. can vote on 99% of laws it needs to vote on; the e-TSJ first ruling came during judicial holiday; the e-TSJ has no right to void an election without some form of trial; etc.; etc.; and without mentioning that the allegations of fraud committed in Amazonas, even if true, pale in comparison to the accusations of fraud for every chavista candidate elsewhere.
Clearly, electoral justice is the least concern of the e-TSJ. The objective is elsewhere.
The objective is to stop the N.A. work before it has a chance to start hearings and voting laws that will limit or erase the power of the chavista elite. Complicated by whatever internal fight chavismo is having.
That is why a faction of chavismo, more than likely led by Diosdado Cabello as Maduro has more to lose in such a confrontation, uses the courts to undo the Assembly election. Going to the point of threatening the dismissal of the N.A. with the TSJ taking upo its functions until X.
The reactions of the N.A. were equally previsible. And the N.A. vice chair stated that they were not going to respect a "political" ruling of the e-TSJ.
It is also an excellent opportunity to remember a December 12, 2014 article in El Pais from Spain, English section where it is explained that
That is all.
So, what next?
Certain argue that the N.A. and Ramos Allup acted harshly, that after all they could start doing a few things with the 109 other seats. That they should have waited even if it left Amazonas without representation at a crucial time.
Others, like the ones rejecting the ruling, think that there is no other way but to confront.
I side with the later for various reasons.
- The e-TSJ "ruling" is not the first, it is already the second and there is already clear evidence that more is coming. The ex-chair of the TSJ has said it so, anticipating today's e-ruling (I have written a lot on her, Luisa Estela Morales Lamuño, in this blog).
- Avoiding a confrontation is useless. Postponing may make sense but when the regime attacks first you need to reply and up the ante.
- This is a thugocracy/kleptocracy/drug-lord-ocracy. Legal elegance is something that flies way above their heads. Accepting any thing from them is just the same as validating their crimes and pushing them forward.
A coup, violence, is unavoidable because the leader of the violent is Diosdado Cabello and he sees in his future an orange suit. Unfortunately there are dozens that also are looking at different ways to wear orange. If anyone disagrees with me they are welcome to explain why I am wrong.
Considering the reality that I live in I am painfully aware that what the regime seeks is to delay any action from the National Assembly and this will be leaving el pueblo, me, with neither food nor medicine. But, my friends, confronting or not the regime IS NOT going to speed up the solution to our problems. We can be only sure of one thing: as long as Maduro and Cabello are in charge, nothing, absolutely nothing will get fixed. They cannot fix it. They cannot care less.
Might as well go for it.
--------------------------------------
There is an older video of this weirdo saying that she would pinch the balls of any gringo landing in Venezuela during the uproar of the DEA putting narco-personnel on its lists. I suppose her agricultural project include also planting pot at home?
In a waiting room I got wind of the declarations of the new minister for urban agriculture. I found the video tonight (at end of this entry). Indeed, she wants everyone to grab a tin can, and empty bottle, put some dirt and recycle the roots of any vegetable we can, starting with green onions.
Today we also learned that Venezuela oil barrel has reached its lowest price since 2002.
Recycling the root system of green onions? Can I plant pot instead so as to escape reality?
All of this to give you a little context for what comes next.
The battle between the electoral hall of the high court (e-TSJ for short) and democracy keeps apace. The e-TSJ has decided today (even though they should be on judicial holiday) that seating the representatives for Amazonas was illegal and puts the National Assembly into contempt. And thus ANY decision of the N.A. is void and will be.
There is no point in going back into the detail of the contentious. For recall what the e-TSJ has done is illegal for many reasons: all appeals in front of the electoral board CNE have not been exhausted; there is no legal emergency; even with three seats less the N.A. can vote on 99% of laws it needs to vote on; the e-TSJ first ruling came during judicial holiday; the e-TSJ has no right to void an election without some form of trial; etc.; etc.; and without mentioning that the allegations of fraud committed in Amazonas, even if true, pale in comparison to the accusations of fraud for every chavista candidate elsewhere.
Clearly, electoral justice is the least concern of the e-TSJ. The objective is elsewhere.
The objective is to stop the N.A. work before it has a chance to start hearings and voting laws that will limit or erase the power of the chavista elite. Complicated by whatever internal fight chavismo is having.
That is why a faction of chavismo, more than likely led by Diosdado Cabello as Maduro has more to lose in such a confrontation, uses the courts to undo the Assembly election. Going to the point of threatening the dismissal of the N.A. with the TSJ taking upo its functions until X.
The reactions of the N.A. were equally previsible. And the N.A. vice chair stated that they were not going to respect a "political" ruling of the e-TSJ.
It is also an excellent opportunity to remember a December 12, 2014 article in El Pais from Spain, English section where it is explained that
reviewed 45,474 sentences issued between 2004 and 2014 by the political, electoral and constitutional chambers at Venezuela’s Supreme Courts - in charge of government oversight. The group published the results in a new book, El TSJ al servicio de la revolución (Editorial Galipan), which it is distributing in the country in an almost clandestine manner. Analysts and journalists see this thick book as a gem. The main conclusion of this long essay is that the Supreme Court has never delivered a sentence against the government.My emphasis. I rest my case, the e-TSJ ruling has nothing to do with electoral justice. This is a judicial coup in progress where a partisan named court will undo the popular will exerted through perfectly legal, even if biased, elections.
That is all.
So, what next?
Certain argue that the N.A. and Ramos Allup acted harshly, that after all they could start doing a few things with the 109 other seats. That they should have waited even if it left Amazonas without representation at a crucial time.
Others, like the ones rejecting the ruling, think that there is no other way but to confront.
I side with the later for various reasons.
- The e-TSJ "ruling" is not the first, it is already the second and there is already clear evidence that more is coming. The ex-chair of the TSJ has said it so, anticipating today's e-ruling (I have written a lot on her, Luisa Estela Morales Lamuño, in this blog).
- Avoiding a confrontation is useless. Postponing may make sense but when the regime attacks first you need to reply and up the ante.
- This is a thugocracy/kleptocracy/drug-lord-ocracy. Legal elegance is something that flies way above their heads. Accepting any thing from them is just the same as validating their crimes and pushing them forward.
A coup, violence, is unavoidable because the leader of the violent is Diosdado Cabello and he sees in his future an orange suit. Unfortunately there are dozens that also are looking at different ways to wear orange. If anyone disagrees with me they are welcome to explain why I am wrong.
Considering the reality that I live in I am painfully aware that what the regime seeks is to delay any action from the National Assembly and this will be leaving el pueblo, me, with neither food nor medicine. But, my friends, confronting or not the regime IS NOT going to speed up the solution to our problems. We can be only sure of one thing: as long as Maduro and Cabello are in charge, nothing, absolutely nothing will get fixed. They cannot fix it. They cannot care less.
Might as well go for it.
--------------------------------------
There is an older video of this weirdo saying that she would pinch the balls of any gringo landing in Venezuela during the uproar of the DEA putting narco-personnel on its lists. I suppose her agricultural project include also planting pot at home?
Saturday, 9 January 2016
A confusing but clarifying week
With the National Assembly swearing-in show and the collateral that came next Venezuela has experienced one of its most confusing weeks - but maybe one of its best ones-
The thread at the N.A. is simple. Chavismo could not find a way to stop its coming Götterdämmerung. So they came, saw and left. They could not avoid their first encounter with a free press in about a decade. Some of the questions were truly embarrassing like when a journalist was finally able to stand on the way of Cilia Flores and ask her about her narco-nephews. Not her nephews in jail in the US awaiting trial, but her NARCO-nephews, straight. This is what happens when you ignore and insult the press for so many years: they get so frustrated that they lose any sense of measure or respect. And poor Cilia, the "first fighter", the wife of president Maduro, had to pick up her pace to escape.
But this bringing down of Cilia was just the beginning of an iconoclastic binge. In the early morning next day the new chair of the N.A. Ramos Allup brought down all the portraits of Chavez that overwhelmed the decor. For good measure he also had brought down the computer created image of Bolivar out of his 200 year old remains. This necrophiliac endeavor from Chavez had become the new official portrait of Bolivar although there is a an existing portrait which was approved by Bolivar himself.
This carefully orchestrated act of Ramos Allup had the desired effect, an overreaction of chavismo which will cost it dearly. It included a lengthy military show in cadena (forced simultaneous broadcast on ALL networks and radios) to "desagravio" redress/repair the insult made to Bolivar even though the bulk of the actions was in defense of Chavez who is, apparently, more insulted than Bolivar.
It is hard to imagine that the totalitarian mentality of these people could be exposed so well in such short notice. General Padrino wanted to impress on us that the computer Bolivar was now encrusted deep into the heart of all of us. How could it be otherwise, he implied. And this meant that Bolivar was insulted through insults to Chavez as the favorite "insigne" son of Bolivar (even if he never got 50% of the electorate to vote for him, even with his higher scores in votes cast). That there is no food or medicine after Chavez is not making a dent in these people who keep their idols up. Hence the brilliant move of Ramos Allup, starting to tear down that mental construct that is blocking any progress for the country.
More details emerged to confirm that need. The mayor of Caracas announced that the whole city will be papered over with copies of the discarded portraits. Funds for that will apparently not be a problem. As to where will he find the paper and ink for that endeavour remains to be explained. Other chavistas suggested that all chavista households should have well displayed Bolivar and Chavez, a new version of the yellow star I suppose for those who do not harbor the "insigne" badge.
Meanwhile Ramos Allup forges ahead and went alone to Quinta Crespo market for his week's groceries, to the great wonderment of el pueblo not used to see chavista nomenklatura shop on their own (even if he had to leave in a hurry after red storm troopers arrived). Whatever criticism people throw at Ramos, and many are from the opposition itslef, we must thank him for breaking a taboo. The idolization of Chavez will never be the same.
The government thread is briefer: they have lost the capacity to set the political agenda and their race is to keep up with what the MUD and R.A. do. I am not going into the expected Greek chorus that want already to nullify the N.A. and jail R.A. I am just going to look at what happened at Miraflores. There Maduro named a new cabinet which kept military in the main positions, and the ones that move the most money. Some cryptic moderates under the guise of people with experience in the private sector were appointed. And to balance it all a social sciences major with nebulous ideas on economy and zero experience is the alleged new star.
But the new cabinet is more interesting through what is missing: some of Cabello heavy weights even though he still has his wife as tourism minister. Some see in that a real weakening of Cabello who, stripped of his power base at the N.A. and the refusal by the army to follow him in a coup on December 6, may be just on his way out. Perhaps even as a token offering to the DEA in a near future? All is possible but I also concur that Cabello's day are counted unless he finds new support that these days could only come from forgiveness of an opposition that he has brutalized for too long. In a way Cabello aura of invincibility is another icon that was brought down this week. After all since December 6 he was threatening and threatening and yet in the end he had to surrender the N.A. seat and could not stop its first measures, ridiculing himself by threatening the N.A. to leave it without funding.
As the first true week of the Assembly looms we may expect more surprises, the more so that it seems resolved in promoting first an amnesty law which could be the final showdown into forcing the regime to compromise,or to surrender. The final release of Leopoldo Lopez in the streets maybe too much for the regime to endure without breaking down. We will see.
 |
| Saddamization |
The thread at the N.A. is simple. Chavismo could not find a way to stop its coming Götterdämmerung. So they came, saw and left. They could not avoid their first encounter with a free press in about a decade. Some of the questions were truly embarrassing like when a journalist was finally able to stand on the way of Cilia Flores and ask her about her narco-nephews. Not her nephews in jail in the US awaiting trial, but her NARCO-nephews, straight. This is what happens when you ignore and insult the press for so many years: they get so frustrated that they lose any sense of measure or respect. And poor Cilia, the "first fighter", the wife of president Maduro, had to pick up her pace to escape.
But this bringing down of Cilia was just the beginning of an iconoclastic binge. In the early morning next day the new chair of the N.A. Ramos Allup brought down all the portraits of Chavez that overwhelmed the decor. For good measure he also had brought down the computer created image of Bolivar out of his 200 year old remains. This necrophiliac endeavor from Chavez had become the new official portrait of Bolivar although there is a an existing portrait which was approved by Bolivar himself.
This carefully orchestrated act of Ramos Allup had the desired effect, an overreaction of chavismo which will cost it dearly. It included a lengthy military show in cadena (forced simultaneous broadcast on ALL networks and radios) to "desagravio" redress/repair the insult made to Bolivar even though the bulk of the actions was in defense of Chavez who is, apparently, more insulted than Bolivar.
It is hard to imagine that the totalitarian mentality of these people could be exposed so well in such short notice. General Padrino wanted to impress on us that the computer Bolivar was now encrusted deep into the heart of all of us. How could it be otherwise, he implied. And this meant that Bolivar was insulted through insults to Chavez as the favorite "insigne" son of Bolivar (even if he never got 50% of the electorate to vote for him, even with his higher scores in votes cast). That there is no food or medicine after Chavez is not making a dent in these people who keep their idols up. Hence the brilliant move of Ramos Allup, starting to tear down that mental construct that is blocking any progress for the country.
More details emerged to confirm that need. The mayor of Caracas announced that the whole city will be papered over with copies of the discarded portraits. Funds for that will apparently not be a problem. As to where will he find the paper and ink for that endeavour remains to be explained. Other chavistas suggested that all chavista households should have well displayed Bolivar and Chavez, a new version of the yellow star I suppose for those who do not harbor the "insigne" badge.
Meanwhile Ramos Allup forges ahead and went alone to Quinta Crespo market for his week's groceries, to the great wonderment of el pueblo not used to see chavista nomenklatura shop on their own (even if he had to leave in a hurry after red storm troopers arrived). Whatever criticism people throw at Ramos, and many are from the opposition itslef, we must thank him for breaking a taboo. The idolization of Chavez will never be the same.
The government thread is briefer: they have lost the capacity to set the political agenda and their race is to keep up with what the MUD and R.A. do. I am not going into the expected Greek chorus that want already to nullify the N.A. and jail R.A. I am just going to look at what happened at Miraflores. There Maduro named a new cabinet which kept military in the main positions, and the ones that move the most money. Some cryptic moderates under the guise of people with experience in the private sector were appointed. And to balance it all a social sciences major with nebulous ideas on economy and zero experience is the alleged new star.
But the new cabinet is more interesting through what is missing: some of Cabello heavy weights even though he still has his wife as tourism minister. Some see in that a real weakening of Cabello who, stripped of his power base at the N.A. and the refusal by the army to follow him in a coup on December 6, may be just on his way out. Perhaps even as a token offering to the DEA in a near future? All is possible but I also concur that Cabello's day are counted unless he finds new support that these days could only come from forgiveness of an opposition that he has brutalized for too long. In a way Cabello aura of invincibility is another icon that was brought down this week. After all since December 6 he was threatening and threatening and yet in the end he had to surrender the N.A. seat and could not stop its first measures, ridiculing himself by threatening the N.A. to leave it without funding.
As the first true week of the Assembly looms we may expect more surprises, the more so that it seems resolved in promoting first an amnesty law which could be the final showdown into forcing the regime to compromise,or to surrender. The final release of Leopoldo Lopez in the streets maybe too much for the regime to endure without breaking down. We will see.
Tuesday, 5 January 2016
The first day of the New Assembly
This entry started this morning (see bottom for earlier text) but I decided to edit it and keep it up as a regular entry.
I am sorry to limit my comments on what happened inside the Assembly because I went to the support rally. In spite of the low speed of connections I did manage to have a full report, video included, of what that rally was. Considering that it was early January when everyone is on Holiday, considering that the regime close 4, FOUR, subway stations to force people to walk about 2 KM to attend, considering the threats, I think it was a very successful demonstration. Visit my Instagram account for pics and videos, in particular the police barrier at the end of the march, two blocks before the National Assembly. For those new to Instagram you need to click on the picture for full details and comments. Better get used to it and open your account, it is the future of micro blogging by eye witness.
As for what happened inside. It was a mess, chavismo trying to disrupt and sabotage whatever they could, sending a drunken opening speaker because it was for the oldest elected representative to open the session and proceed tot he election of the chair, Ramos Allup. Expect more of the like.
On noteworthy moments.
Ramos Allup gave a good speech and made it clear that the opposition got the message, that the regime is going to attack the New Assembly and that they will fight back, including a legal, constitutional, electoral, peaceful removal of Maduro from office in the next 6 months.
Cabello withdrew the PSUV group because supposedly Ramor Allup violated rules. As if he NEVER violated any rule himself.
Cilia Flores, wife of Maduro and representative from Cojedes was asked about her narco-nephews in jail in New York. She walked away with a truly dirty look, first time a journalist was close enough her to ask for the question we all wanted to hear.
Things were said that chavismo did not like. They are not used at how democracy works.
Reuters got it right: Venezuelans used to years of monochromatic to ideological TV could not believe it when in cafes suddenly TV was live with opposition politicians speaking. It is true, when I drove back home I saw crowds spilling out of cafes!!!!
So there it was for a first rowdy day. But that is that, the opposition is now in charge at the Assembly. There is still the question of the illegally annulled 4 seats. But as wee say in French a chaque jour suffit sa peine.
For those who refuse to get into Instagram
---------------------------------
I will try to go to the rally in support of the New Assembly. If I succeed I will try to post stuff on Instagram and/or twitter. Links on the right side of this page.
Then again maybe not: I just learned that the subway stations around La Hoyada have been shut down for "security" reasons, which means you need to walk a mile to reach la Hoyada. They will try to screw us until the bitter end!
We are going for it anyway.
I am sorry to limit my comments on what happened inside the Assembly because I went to the support rally. In spite of the low speed of connections I did manage to have a full report, video included, of what that rally was. Considering that it was early January when everyone is on Holiday, considering that the regime close 4, FOUR, subway stations to force people to walk about 2 KM to attend, considering the threats, I think it was a very successful demonstration. Visit my Instagram account for pics and videos, in particular the police barrier at the end of the march, two blocks before the National Assembly. For those new to Instagram you need to click on the picture for full details and comments. Better get used to it and open your account, it is the future of micro blogging by eye witness.
As for what happened inside. It was a mess, chavismo trying to disrupt and sabotage whatever they could, sending a drunken opening speaker because it was for the oldest elected representative to open the session and proceed tot he election of the chair, Ramos Allup. Expect more of the like.
On noteworthy moments.
Ramos Allup gave a good speech and made it clear that the opposition got the message, that the regime is going to attack the New Assembly and that they will fight back, including a legal, constitutional, electoral, peaceful removal of Maduro from office in the next 6 months.
Cabello withdrew the PSUV group because supposedly Ramor Allup violated rules. As if he NEVER violated any rule himself.
Cilia Flores, wife of Maduro and representative from Cojedes was asked about her narco-nephews in jail in New York. She walked away with a truly dirty look, first time a journalist was close enough her to ask for the question we all wanted to hear.
Things were said that chavismo did not like. They are not used at how democracy works.
Reuters got it right: Venezuelans used to years of monochromatic to ideological TV could not believe it when in cafes suddenly TV was live with opposition politicians speaking. It is true, when I drove back home I saw crowds spilling out of cafes!!!!
So there it was for a first rowdy day. But that is that, the opposition is now in charge at the Assembly. There is still the question of the illegally annulled 4 seats. But as wee say in French a chaque jour suffit sa peine.
For those who refuse to get into Instagram
---------------------------------
I will try to go to the rally in support of the New Assembly. If I succeed I will try to post stuff on Instagram and/or twitter. Links on the right side of this page.
Then again maybe not: I just learned that the subway stations around La Hoyada have been shut down for "security" reasons, which means you need to walk a mile to reach la Hoyada. They will try to screw us until the bitter end!
We are going for it anyway.
Tuesday, 15 December 2015
The hysteria of Diosdado and Tarek
The stupendous defeat of the regime two Sundays ago is just starting to unleash all demons within chavismo. There are two little items that are worth noting.
Diosdado Cabello, the outgoing chair of the National Assembly has lot of reasons to worry about the incoming Assembly. Not only he will not be enjoying the privileges associated with the position but, lord have mercy on him, he risks to have his microphone cut when he starts insulting other representatives in what he qualifies as normal debate. If that was not enough he will have as a new colleague Rafael Guzman. This Rafael was 7 years ago the guy that studied all the improprieties that Cabello did during his lone tenure as Miranda governor from where he was ignominiously booted by Capriles (and forced to return to his native Monagas). The very substantial dossier could never receive any legal examination because no tribunal would pick up the thing to avoid offending Cabello or Chavez, but Cabello himself as of 2010 made sure that the National Assembly would not even be aware of the existence of such dossier.
Now, in prime time, Rafael Guzman will be able to broach on the matter, something that should be enough to unseat Cabello from the Assembly and to get him a seat in a jail, independently of what the US does on his likely indictment on drug trafficking.
Tarek El Aissami is the very unhappy governor of Aragua state. Not only he is in the hot list of likely DEA indictments, but his state went from overwhelmingly chavista to a clean sweep by the opposition. Three years of him as a governor were enough to transform Aragua electoral landscape even more than the crisis changed the rest of the country.
This was rendered the more humiliating as one of the chief organizer in Aragua anti Tarek movement was the mayor of a small area, the lone survivor for the opposition loss two years ago, Delson Guarate. Since major players in Aragua had been neutralized (think Richard Mardo, Maracay defenestrated representative) poor Delson had to bear the brunt of Tarek attacks, These included a now famous battle over refusing to give the district of Delson the machines that are needed to pick up the trash so that the district would be the worst of Aragua. Of course, people are not as stupid as Tarek and the PSUV think they are and two Sundays ago they let it know to Tarek that his days in Aragua were nearly over.
But Tarek will have none of it and he instead went to ask chavismo supporters to mass in front the National Assembly on January 5 to block access to the new representatives.... Certainly, after Cabello, our boy Tarek is in the top tier of people in serious need to be investigated for anything from racketeering to drug traffic. Probably even for setting soccer game results... Nothing would too low to stop the national assembly to take its seats.
Diosdado Cabello, the outgoing chair of the National Assembly has lot of reasons to worry about the incoming Assembly. Not only he will not be enjoying the privileges associated with the position but, lord have mercy on him, he risks to have his microphone cut when he starts insulting other representatives in what he qualifies as normal debate. If that was not enough he will have as a new colleague Rafael Guzman. This Rafael was 7 years ago the guy that studied all the improprieties that Cabello did during his lone tenure as Miranda governor from where he was ignominiously booted by Capriles (and forced to return to his native Monagas). The very substantial dossier could never receive any legal examination because no tribunal would pick up the thing to avoid offending Cabello or Chavez, but Cabello himself as of 2010 made sure that the National Assembly would not even be aware of the existence of such dossier.
Now, in prime time, Rafael Guzman will be able to broach on the matter, something that should be enough to unseat Cabello from the Assembly and to get him a seat in a jail, independently of what the US does on his likely indictment on drug trafficking.
Tarek El Aissami is the very unhappy governor of Aragua state. Not only he is in the hot list of likely DEA indictments, but his state went from overwhelmingly chavista to a clean sweep by the opposition. Three years of him as a governor were enough to transform Aragua electoral landscape even more than the crisis changed the rest of the country.
This was rendered the more humiliating as one of the chief organizer in Aragua anti Tarek movement was the mayor of a small area, the lone survivor for the opposition loss two years ago, Delson Guarate. Since major players in Aragua had been neutralized (think Richard Mardo, Maracay defenestrated representative) poor Delson had to bear the brunt of Tarek attacks, These included a now famous battle over refusing to give the district of Delson the machines that are needed to pick up the trash so that the district would be the worst of Aragua. Of course, people are not as stupid as Tarek and the PSUV think they are and two Sundays ago they let it know to Tarek that his days in Aragua were nearly over.
But Tarek will have none of it and he instead went to ask chavismo supporters to mass in front the National Assembly on January 5 to block access to the new representatives.... Certainly, after Cabello, our boy Tarek is in the top tier of people in serious need to be investigated for anything from racketeering to drug traffic. Probably even for setting soccer game results... Nothing would too low to stop the national assembly to take its seats.
Tuesday, 8 December 2015
When consoling the troops makes you certifiable political ass
It is always necessary for the leader of a political party to try to comfort a little bit the troops by promises of keeping up the good fight. If this cannot be done by the harshness of the score or the temperament of the leader then there is always resigning your position. What Maduro did tonight was resigning his subordinates and through Cabello announce open season on the new Assembly.
For those who were hoping for a dialogue between thugs and democrats, there you are.
It all started with a TV show where a bitter Maduro let it be known clearly that he felt betrayed by those who did not vote for him. He went, like a brat, to say that his social plans were now in doubt and that he was hurt that after all his gifts during the campaign (apartment, tablets, taxis,...) he did not get the support he deserved. He did not realize of course that he was also admitting to a crime, of buying votes. But I digress.
Then at some point Cabello joined him (I did not watch, I am just summarizing Twitter, the only open media of Venezuela). It was for Cabello to announce the new battle plans against the incoming Assembly. They include a series of new laws and appointments to be made before normal sessions end on December 15. Yes, the assembly can call a lame duck session and sit as far as January 4 I guess, but already some of the decisions announced would be illegal if they were to be approved in that delay. For example, laws need a certain numbers of discussion sessions. Naming new High Court (TSJ) judges must include a nomination process that requires weeks.
Thus even if the defeated chavista representatives went along, whose motivation remains to be seen as they are less threatened than Cabello by the courts, most of Cabello's legislative program would be illegal and I, for one, doubt that the TSJ would dare to annul an Assembly vote to revoke those lame duck decisions. Were the TSJ do so the new National Assembly would have no other choice but to call for a constituent assembly to remove ALL judges from their job.
Of course all of this bravado is the result of a bitter deception, the more so that in spite of all maneuvering the CNE finally recognized today that the National Assembly will have a 2/3 majority. To add insult to injury, that majority is due to the 3 elected representatives of the indigenous people. When Chavez wrote his 1999 constitution he included a provision that 3 representatives should be included just for indigenous people. That never worked out because if the candidates had to be named by the natives, too many non natives could affect the election. But that was not the point. The point was that in eternal gratitude for what came to be an empty gesture chavismo would have a lock on those three seats. Guess what? The natives are as fed up with scarcity than the invaders.
The bravado nature is confirmed with the latest on ANTV (our dim C-Span). Now Cabello has decided that it would go to its workers and thus the new leadership of the Assembly will not be able to direct its own TV Channel. This is of course idiotic because the new Assembly would now be forced to revoke the CONATEL law to control media and return TVes to its old owners Radio Caracas TV (and I also doubt that no matter how packed the TSJ is it would annul such decisions).
I, for one, think that Maduro and Cabello tonight are digging fast their own hole. Alone.
Note: Maduro asked for the resignation of his cabinet when he is the one who should resign. Some already suggest that it is to remove from office those that are the more compromised by shady finances and to thus delay their eventual exam by New Assembly. The real question though is who will dare to accpet the new jobs at a collapsing presidency.
For those who were hoping for a dialogue between thugs and democrats, there you are.
It all started with a TV show where a bitter Maduro let it be known clearly that he felt betrayed by those who did not vote for him. He went, like a brat, to say that his social plans were now in doubt and that he was hurt that after all his gifts during the campaign (apartment, tablets, taxis,...) he did not get the support he deserved. He did not realize of course that he was also admitting to a crime, of buying votes. But I digress.
Then at some point Cabello joined him (I did not watch, I am just summarizing Twitter, the only open media of Venezuela). It was for Cabello to announce the new battle plans against the incoming Assembly. They include a series of new laws and appointments to be made before normal sessions end on December 15. Yes, the assembly can call a lame duck session and sit as far as January 4 I guess, but already some of the decisions announced would be illegal if they were to be approved in that delay. For example, laws need a certain numbers of discussion sessions. Naming new High Court (TSJ) judges must include a nomination process that requires weeks.
Thus even if the defeated chavista representatives went along, whose motivation remains to be seen as they are less threatened than Cabello by the courts, most of Cabello's legislative program would be illegal and I, for one, doubt that the TSJ would dare to annul an Assembly vote to revoke those lame duck decisions. Were the TSJ do so the new National Assembly would have no other choice but to call for a constituent assembly to remove ALL judges from their job.
Of course all of this bravado is the result of a bitter deception, the more so that in spite of all maneuvering the CNE finally recognized today that the National Assembly will have a 2/3 majority. To add insult to injury, that majority is due to the 3 elected representatives of the indigenous people. When Chavez wrote his 1999 constitution he included a provision that 3 representatives should be included just for indigenous people. That never worked out because if the candidates had to be named by the natives, too many non natives could affect the election. But that was not the point. The point was that in eternal gratitude for what came to be an empty gesture chavismo would have a lock on those three seats. Guess what? The natives are as fed up with scarcity than the invaders.
The bravado nature is confirmed with the latest on ANTV (our dim C-Span). Now Cabello has decided that it would go to its workers and thus the new leadership of the Assembly will not be able to direct its own TV Channel. This is of course idiotic because the new Assembly would now be forced to revoke the CONATEL law to control media and return TVes to its old owners Radio Caracas TV (and I also doubt that no matter how packed the TSJ is it would annul such decisions).
I, for one, think that Maduro and Cabello tonight are digging fast their own hole. Alone.
Note: Maduro asked for the resignation of his cabinet when he is the one who should resign. Some already suggest that it is to remove from office those that are the more compromised by shady finances and to thus delay their eventual exam by New Assembly. The real question though is who will dare to accpet the new jobs at a collapsing presidency.
Tuesday, 27 October 2015
The banality of evil, Caracas style
Tonight I twitted this:
In English: Listening to {prosecutor} Nieves I keep thinking of Hannah Arendt and the banality of evil.
One of the top prosecutors in the Leopoldo Lopez show trial has defected to the US and is now saying that the whole operation against Lopez was a scam, that the intention was to put him away for the election of 2015 and more. In fact Nieves went as far as to say, more or less, that the order to arrest Lopez already existed before the events for which he was finally arrested in February 2014.
Franklin Nieves was tonight in the top CÑNe rating show of Fernando del Rincon. Mr. del Rincon rocketed from a CNNE anchor to his own nightly talk show, Conclusiones, as a consequence of his daring reports on Venezuela through the first half of 2014. He has become the journalist to go for any trouble in Latin America, and the specialist on Venezuela, much loved by the opposition, and much more reviled by the regime.
I am not going into the details of what Nieves said (for those who read Spanish you can visit my Tweeter time line of Tuesday night). In short, he stated that all the evidence against Lopez was fabricated, that he received orders to prosecute anyway on those fake evidences, that all knew about that in the regime, that Diosdado Cabello himself was supervising the first orders and that he fooled the Lopez family in making them believe that if Lopez surrendered nicely a deal would be reached. He accused directly Maduro and Cabello and some of the top officials at the state prosecuting office in such a way that the regime will have to do better than just using the worn out line "he is a liar, paid by the nemesis of the revolution" (which he may well be for all that I know, but that is not the point). There is a situation now that will make supporting the regime almost impossible for some of its allies.
No, my interest is elsewhere. First, let's us start with the one with easiest access: why is the US covering for all those defectors? Is it a strategy to encourage them to defect the regime so as to build a case against its corrupt narco officials? In that case, how come indictments and active prosecutions are not coming through faster? In short, why are the US giving some (minor) credit to some of the accusations the regime hurls at them? I am writing that because informed people know better, know that the regime is indeed a rotten corrupt system, that is not investigated by the US alone. But too many use the people's ignorance and misinformation, even inside the opposition, in such ways that it helps the regime case. I am also writing this so that readers realize that I am not in a blind rage as I type.
There is some confusing evil above, but there is real evil next.
What has struck me more was the composure of Nieves during the whole interview, even as del Rincon was trying not to break down under the shock of having all of his antidemocratic accusations against the regime thus validated.
That made me think of Hanna Arendt, the Eichman trial, the basic nature of totalitarianism the way she explained, creating "the banality of evil". At least Arendt was writing her seminal books based on people following orders. I suppose that concentration camp guards did not have access to Tweeter to get contrasting news to what the Reich told them everyday. Even if pathetic, the defenses of "I was just following orders" " I did not know" "Nobody told me anything, nobody knew" could make one doubt on occasion if the lines were pronounced then with an empty enough glance.
But with Nieves such excuses cannot apply. Nieves tonight told us he knew what he was doing all along was wrong, was a crime, was an abuse of Human Rights. He knew all along that the regime wanted Lopez jailed, found guilty while it figured out, I imagine, a final solution to the Lopez problem.
Nieves knew and yet he did. And I do not buy much his crocodile tears at seeing Lopez little girl go to the same school as the prosecutor's orphan maker girl being too much for him and making him decide to defect.
What was shocking tonight is that all the actors were following orders, indeed, but knowing full well that the orders were wrong. In the end it does not really matter whether Cabello is the one that gave the original order, what matters here is that the chavista regime has been a totalitarian regime for quite a while as the behavior of the people at the nation's prosecution office show. This is way beyond debating whether the regime can be described as a dictatorship. This is a neo-totalitarian system as I have long ago coined it as a tag for some of this blog entries.
In the end one is left perplexed in trying to figure which is the worst evil. The ones giving orders? The ones executing it? The ones confessing to them without much trouble? And thus it all becomes banal.
PS: interview now up for those who understand Spanish
Oyendo Nieves me la paso pensando en Hanna Arendt y la banalidad del mal. #ConcluFiscal— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) October 28, 2015In English: Listening to {prosecutor} Nieves I keep thinking of Hannah Arendt and the banality of evil.
One of the top prosecutors in the Leopoldo Lopez show trial has defected to the US and is now saying that the whole operation against Lopez was a scam, that the intention was to put him away for the election of 2015 and more. In fact Nieves went as far as to say, more or less, that the order to arrest Lopez already existed before the events for which he was finally arrested in February 2014.
Franklin Nieves was tonight in the top CÑNe rating show of Fernando del Rincon. Mr. del Rincon rocketed from a CNNE anchor to his own nightly talk show, Conclusiones, as a consequence of his daring reports on Venezuela through the first half of 2014. He has become the journalist to go for any trouble in Latin America, and the specialist on Venezuela, much loved by the opposition, and much more reviled by the regime.
I am not going into the details of what Nieves said (for those who read Spanish you can visit my Tweeter time line of Tuesday night). In short, he stated that all the evidence against Lopez was fabricated, that he received orders to prosecute anyway on those fake evidences, that all knew about that in the regime, that Diosdado Cabello himself was supervising the first orders and that he fooled the Lopez family in making them believe that if Lopez surrendered nicely a deal would be reached. He accused directly Maduro and Cabello and some of the top officials at the state prosecuting office in such a way that the regime will have to do better than just using the worn out line "he is a liar, paid by the nemesis of the revolution" (which he may well be for all that I know, but that is not the point). There is a situation now that will make supporting the regime almost impossible for some of its allies.
No, my interest is elsewhere. First, let's us start with the one with easiest access: why is the US covering for all those defectors? Is it a strategy to encourage them to defect the regime so as to build a case against its corrupt narco officials? In that case, how come indictments and active prosecutions are not coming through faster? In short, why are the US giving some (minor) credit to some of the accusations the regime hurls at them? I am writing that because informed people know better, know that the regime is indeed a rotten corrupt system, that is not investigated by the US alone. But too many use the people's ignorance and misinformation, even inside the opposition, in such ways that it helps the regime case. I am also writing this so that readers realize that I am not in a blind rage as I type.
There is some confusing evil above, but there is real evil next.
What has struck me more was the composure of Nieves during the whole interview, even as del Rincon was trying not to break down under the shock of having all of his antidemocratic accusations against the regime thus validated.
That made me think of Hanna Arendt, the Eichman trial, the basic nature of totalitarianism the way she explained, creating "the banality of evil". At least Arendt was writing her seminal books based on people following orders. I suppose that concentration camp guards did not have access to Tweeter to get contrasting news to what the Reich told them everyday. Even if pathetic, the defenses of "I was just following orders" " I did not know" "Nobody told me anything, nobody knew" could make one doubt on occasion if the lines were pronounced then with an empty enough glance.
But with Nieves such excuses cannot apply. Nieves tonight told us he knew what he was doing all along was wrong, was a crime, was an abuse of Human Rights. He knew all along that the regime wanted Lopez jailed, found guilty while it figured out, I imagine, a final solution to the Lopez problem.
Nieves knew and yet he did. And I do not buy much his crocodile tears at seeing Lopez little girl go to the same school as the prosecutor's orphan maker girl being too much for him and making him decide to defect.
What was shocking tonight is that all the actors were following orders, indeed, but knowing full well that the orders were wrong. In the end it does not really matter whether Cabello is the one that gave the original order, what matters here is that the chavista regime has been a totalitarian regime for quite a while as the behavior of the people at the nation's prosecution office show. This is way beyond debating whether the regime can be described as a dictatorship. This is a neo-totalitarian system as I have long ago coined it as a tag for some of this blog entries.
In the end one is left perplexed in trying to figure which is the worst evil. The ones giving orders? The ones executing it? The ones confessing to them without much trouble? And thus it all becomes banal.
PS: interview now up for those who understand Spanish
Friday, 11 September 2015
Regime gains? Opposition gains? Lopez gains?
The guilty verdict on Leopoldo Lopez was expected though one would have thought that the maximum penalty would not have been decided. At any rate, guilty or free, the decision yesterday by the regime to tell judge Barreiros to condemn Lopez is not going to change much on the events to come. What it does convincingly is marking the moment where the regime stops gingerly crossing over the line between dictatorship and the totalitarian state. Gingerly no more.
Anything but freeing Lopez would not have improved the international regime standing now at junk bond level. Any condemnation, no matter how short the sentence, was equally unacceptable because a guilty verdict on thought crime is unacceptable in civilized world. Any guilty verdict is the clear statement of the regime that politicians will be dealt with through "crime" sentences to ban them from office. Who needs a gulag when a mere sentence disposes of your opponents for a few years in jail and for a life time once out?
So, why is the regime risking such an international condemnation, even though it does not seem to care about that a bit, as witnesses the Colombian border crisis?
Any gain perceived by the regime is strictly internal, safe the historical apologists from Red Ken to the ineffable Eva Golinger. I suppose that now they will be able to state without batting an eye that Lopez is guilty. And it will work to a point. All outside in Venezuela have a sense that justice in Venezuela is not great. But few can grasp how perverted the system is. Thus when a propagandist at Russia Today like Eva Golinger states that Lopez is guilty and has been condemned to 14 years of jail even if you have a doubt about the Venezuelan judicial system you will think that surely Lopez must have done something even if the sentence is overly harsh. A meager compensation when you consider that the Eva Golingers of the world are now quite discredited outside of the few dark caves where they seek refuge.
The "benefits" must be strictly internal, thus. Which may they be?
As an electoral ploy it can only mobilize better the hard core of chavismo. Yesterday a colectivo did attack a peaceful protest resulting with one death through cardiac failure. But the renewed radicalization of the nut wing of chavismo has the advantage at improving the options of the "bring in the vote" machine. Plain coercion as before has not worked in 2013, now chavismo needs actual threats and ferrying of timorate electors. At best this may help chavismo limit the hemorrhage of votes but it will not help them gain new electors. Attitudes like yesterday castigating civil protests or chanting the hopes that Lopez gets 400 year sentence do not make you new friends.
As a demobilizing tool for the opposition it has a limited use. At best it will scare some opposition leaders that do not want to go to jail, but the bulk knows quite well that they must keep the fight because the slammer is their destiny sooner or later. I think personally that condemning Lopez is in fact an incentive for the opposition voter to be more active. But the Cuban inspired regime applies old recipes in a new world of Twitter.
As a tool to create violence and thus get an excuse to suspend elections is far from certain. So far there is no evidence that the opposition will resort to violence. Lopez himself is calling for peace and electoral activism as the best and fastest way to get out of jail, and annul the unjust sentence.
Clearly I see no real advantage for the regime in condemning Lopez to 14 years. The international commendation has been quite vocal today, faster than usual. Peace still reigns in Venezuela and I do not see much spontaneous chavista celebration...
The only advantage that I can see is internal to chavismo. Someone had to make a show of force to prove to one faction that he is the boss. I, for one, have a hard time imagining that Cubans demanded this from Maduro, or at least with a much shorter sentence. Doing so must be the way to announce that we have entered totalitarianism, officially. The other suspect is Diosdado Cabello who, besides his resentment against anything educated smart and fancy, may have wanted to condemn Lopez to blame this on Maduro.
Whatever it is, those who participated in that show trial have put their names first in the list of those who will need to suffer through a Venezuelan Nuremberg when the day shall come. I do not want to be seen as a poseur by using the N word, but the crimes committed by the regime this recent weeks qualify the holders to a trial at The Hague. Period.
There is only one winner yesterday: Leopoldo Lopez. Write it down.
Anything but freeing Lopez would not have improved the international regime standing now at junk bond level. Any condemnation, no matter how short the sentence, was equally unacceptable because a guilty verdict on thought crime is unacceptable in civilized world. Any guilty verdict is the clear statement of the regime that politicians will be dealt with through "crime" sentences to ban them from office. Who needs a gulag when a mere sentence disposes of your opponents for a few years in jail and for a life time once out?
So, why is the regime risking such an international condemnation, even though it does not seem to care about that a bit, as witnesses the Colombian border crisis?
Any gain perceived by the regime is strictly internal, safe the historical apologists from Red Ken to the ineffable Eva Golinger. I suppose that now they will be able to state without batting an eye that Lopez is guilty. And it will work to a point. All outside in Venezuela have a sense that justice in Venezuela is not great. But few can grasp how perverted the system is. Thus when a propagandist at Russia Today like Eva Golinger states that Lopez is guilty and has been condemned to 14 years of jail even if you have a doubt about the Venezuelan judicial system you will think that surely Lopez must have done something even if the sentence is overly harsh. A meager compensation when you consider that the Eva Golingers of the world are now quite discredited outside of the few dark caves where they seek refuge.
The "benefits" must be strictly internal, thus. Which may they be?
As an electoral ploy it can only mobilize better the hard core of chavismo. Yesterday a colectivo did attack a peaceful protest resulting with one death through cardiac failure. But the renewed radicalization of the nut wing of chavismo has the advantage at improving the options of the "bring in the vote" machine. Plain coercion as before has not worked in 2013, now chavismo needs actual threats and ferrying of timorate electors. At best this may help chavismo limit the hemorrhage of votes but it will not help them gain new electors. Attitudes like yesterday castigating civil protests or chanting the hopes that Lopez gets 400 year sentence do not make you new friends.
As a demobilizing tool for the opposition it has a limited use. At best it will scare some opposition leaders that do not want to go to jail, but the bulk knows quite well that they must keep the fight because the slammer is their destiny sooner or later. I think personally that condemning Lopez is in fact an incentive for the opposition voter to be more active. But the Cuban inspired regime applies old recipes in a new world of Twitter.
As a tool to create violence and thus get an excuse to suspend elections is far from certain. So far there is no evidence that the opposition will resort to violence. Lopez himself is calling for peace and electoral activism as the best and fastest way to get out of jail, and annul the unjust sentence.
Clearly I see no real advantage for the regime in condemning Lopez to 14 years. The international commendation has been quite vocal today, faster than usual. Peace still reigns in Venezuela and I do not see much spontaneous chavista celebration...
The only advantage that I can see is internal to chavismo. Someone had to make a show of force to prove to one faction that he is the boss. I, for one, have a hard time imagining that Cubans demanded this from Maduro, or at least with a much shorter sentence. Doing so must be the way to announce that we have entered totalitarianism, officially. The other suspect is Diosdado Cabello who, besides his resentment against anything educated smart and fancy, may have wanted to condemn Lopez to blame this on Maduro.
Whatever it is, those who participated in that show trial have put their names first in the list of those who will need to suffer through a Venezuelan Nuremberg when the day shall come. I do not want to be seen as a poseur by using the N word, but the crimes committed by the regime this recent weeks qualify the holders to a trial at The Hague. Period.
There is only one winner yesterday: Leopoldo Lopez. Write it down.
Tuesday, 15 October 2013
Carta abierta al cobarde de Diosdado Cabello
 |
| El dedo del odio |
Le escribo hoy porque termino de leer, asombrado, que usted no va a permitir que nadie de la oposición participe en la comisión parlamentaria que estudiará la propuesta de ley habilitante que presentó Nicolas Maduro; presidente sin legitimidad para solicitar tal ley, sea dicho de paso.
Definitivamente usted mató toda posibilidad de dialogo en la Asamblea Nacional, y eso porque usted es un cobarde y no puede soportar confrontación directa, no puede soportar que alguien le sostenga un espejo para que usted se vea en su mediocridad. Ejemplos de su miedo e intolerancia abundan. Ejemplos donde usted manda a otros a cometer sus fechorías abundan. Si el mas notorio fue cuando usted mando a sus secuaces a romper la nariz a una mujer, el mas grotesco hasta ahora fue usted agitando un dedito en contra de un diputado, escondido usted detrás de la espalda del presidente leyendo un discurso.
Usted es un cobarde porque hace que la justicia lo proteja de todas las acusaciones de corrupción que rondan su estadía en la gobernación de Miranda mientras usted no tiene reparos en usar su posición desde la presidencia de la asamblea apara mandar a quien sea a acusar otros por crímenes, que si fuesen ciertos, son una nimiedad comparado a los crímenes de los cuales usted se esconde. Y remata con comentaristas desprestigiados que lo defiendan nada mas que en El Universal, ya que usted no se enfrenta con ningún periodista serio.
Creo que es verdad que los fascistas son mas cobardes que los comunistas. Usted lo demuestra a diario. Cuando se murió Hugo Chávez la gente debatía si era mejor estar con usted o con Nicolas. En aquellos días no me importaba, cualquiera de los dos era igual de malo, igual de incompetente, igual de moralmente corrupto. Pero debo reconocer que hoy en día no pienso lo mismo. Nicolas Maduro es un desastre pero estoy seguro que si usted lograse llegar al sillón de Miraflores usted seria peor, mucho peor. No se si la habilitante también sirva para que Maduro y los cubanos se sacudan de su torpe presencia. Pero si fuese el caso, que la usen para salir de usted, entonces tal vez valdría la pena que se apruebe esa habilitante. Dudo que muchos lloren su partida. Ni siquiera los boliburgueses que solo aman su dinero malhabido y que serán los primeros a tirarlo al pajonal antes de que pueda chantajearlos para que lo defiendan.
Tuesday, 8 October 2013
Enabling law as intra chavista power play of radicals in the ascent
UPDATED There two major news today, one just breaking with the "promotion" of Ramirez to the vice presidency of Economic area while the fate of the previous holder, Merentes, is still unknown (he may retain his seat of finance minister but we have no confirmation at this typing). The second news is the expected formal petition for an enabling law for Maduro. Let's start with this later one although the first one is the more revealing news as to what is truly happening.
Since Hitler's enabling law, that tool as never led to good results. In Venezuela its use has been abundant and has been abused under Chavez. But at least in previous Venezuelan applications the president was freshly elected with a clear victory over the runner up, or had high numbers all the time like Chavez. Maduro has neither high numbers in polls, nor a clear mandate and even less of a clear victory whatsoever as April vote is now recognized as a fraudulent one even by many the rank and file chavismo (though they remain discrete about it because, well, they are cashing in, you know...). It is not that a limited enabling law with a limited scope to speed up necessary legislation over a punctual problem is necessarily a bad idea, but in a country which under Chavez has revealed its deep lack of democratic fiber such a constitutional figure should be abolished outright. Chavez in his last installment used it to annul the newly elected National Assembly and moved on with it to prepare the grotesque state support for his fraudulent reelection of last year.
Maduro advances many made up excuses to request an enabling law of his own, NONE making sense. He wants to use it to fight corruption but all the necessary legislation already exists. The regime simply refuses to apply it, refuses to tackle corruption which latest example is found with a public official caught with 400K euros in cash in Bulgaria. He wants to use it to fight an alleged economic coup, so that there will be no food shortages. But the solution is easy there since the regime already controls all the foreign currency outflow, already controls the price structure, already can expropriate whatever it wants, already can jail any "saboteur". He wants to use it to stop Venezuela's dependency from oil but he forgets that chavismo has been in office for soon 15 years, has had already enabling laws and the end result of them is that MORE THAN EVER we depend on oil. Another enabling law is not going to solve any of these issues. NONE.
So, what gives? We need to search the true reasons of the enabling law elsewhere, in the murky waters of the internal power struggles of chavismo. Basically we have two sides, each with significant subgroups. To simplify matters there are the "moderate" which understand the value of money and that we are in a globalized word that imposes some of the rules that all must follow least they fall on the wayside. If the economic failure of Chavez, and Cuba, and Zimbabwe and others are not enough for you to understand what is meant by a minimum of rules to follow then it means that your interests are elsewhere, in Nincompoopia. The "radicals" are the other side, the ones that praise to high heaven the tyranny of the Castros over Cuba, who think that indeed Venezuela belongs to Nincompoopondwana, the famed continent where the USSR was a production power house and where Cuba is actually a tropical paradise.
Loosely Diosdado Cabello represented the "moderates", those that love dictatorship with profits. One of his men, or at least kindred spirit in the Maduro government, was Merentes, the finance minister in charge of the vice presidency on economic matters. The "radical" wing was better represented though the fact that "moderates" were officially present seemed to indicate a certain falling back after Chavez death. However in recent weeks it was clear that Cabello did not seem to have the ascendant that he once had. The departure of Merentes, foretold by his clear inability to impose his economic views over Giordani, Jaua and Arreaza, seems to indicate that the "radicals" have finally wooed the "neutral" group led by Ramirez, the smaller, more discrete group in the cabinet but the one that knew how much cash was truly available from oil production. Ramirez is an ideologue, a "resentido social", and should have been counted from the starts in the radical group were it not that his utter lack of charisma and link to the common folk made him realize that he had more to gain personally if he stayed aloof in the immediate post Chavez era.
This is how we must read what is going on this week. The "radicals" are trying to edge once and for all whatever "moderates" are left in charge. It is too early to decide for certain whether this is a mere electoral ploy to mobilize the radical bases to avoid a disaster in December. I think unfortunately that it goes deeper than that. The economy is tanking and the radicals feel cornered. They have decided to remove once and for all any democratic pretense so as to remain in power through repression. This start by insuring the unity of chavismo in a single faction, more able to tackle the democratic opposition later on.
The questions are now: Will Cabello allow for the enabling law to be voted? Will the corrupt and rich and lazy military cave in knowing full well that they will soil their hands with bloods if the radicals take over completely? Is the intricate network of corruption and blackmail inside chavismo enough to neutralize Cabello and the army higher ranks?
Maybe the time has come.
----------------------
UPDATE. So I watched the second part of Maduro's speech at the National Assembly tonight requesting the enabling law. I am not going to go into details as I sort of tweeted it live in Spanish. I am just giving you the executive summary.
The performance was pitiful: Maduro had all the trouble in the world reading the speech from a booklet. He did not write the speech, that much was obvious by the amount of words and sentences he had trouble with. In fact it is fair to assume that the speech was written by Giordani, the great apparent winner of the economic struggles of the past months. With the help of some Cuban advisors, of course.
The speech was insulting, idiot, uninformed, mean and ideological in a way that not even Chavez would have dared to do in his best years. As such it is clear that his appointed successor and help have not an inch of Chavez skills, but more than his hatred. Then again you need to understand that the speech was not meant for you or me, it was meant for the chavismo rank and file that is getting harder and harder to emote. And also to those inside chavismo that are refusing to follow the Cuban cue as burped out by Maduro.
I think the performance was pitiful and I doubt that Maduro got much traction with it. It is clear that his objective is to muzzle any opposition to his rule, and not only the democratic one. That Cabello screamed and cheered is simply beyond my understanding as he is one of the targets of the proposed law. I also doubt that trying to blame all of the shortcomings of 14 years of Chavez and 10 months of Maduro on anyone but themselves really does not work much today. I know, I know, the Venezuelan electorate has demonstrated ample stupidity and venality in the last decade but I am going to remind you the stuff that you can fool all of the time some of the people, some of the time all of the people but never all of the people all of the time. And when I write ALL I mean the group that voted for Chavez in 2000.
What happened tonight was indeed a declaration of war but we are not sure against whom, and for what objective. In fact, I am not sure whether Maduro knows.
Note: Maduro was abundant in his insults and reproaches but we still does not know anything about the specifics of his request.....
Since Hitler's enabling law, that tool as never led to good results. In Venezuela its use has been abundant and has been abused under Chavez. But at least in previous Venezuelan applications the president was freshly elected with a clear victory over the runner up, or had high numbers all the time like Chavez. Maduro has neither high numbers in polls, nor a clear mandate and even less of a clear victory whatsoever as April vote is now recognized as a fraudulent one even by many the rank and file chavismo (though they remain discrete about it because, well, they are cashing in, you know...). It is not that a limited enabling law with a limited scope to speed up necessary legislation over a punctual problem is necessarily a bad idea, but in a country which under Chavez has revealed its deep lack of democratic fiber such a constitutional figure should be abolished outright. Chavez in his last installment used it to annul the newly elected National Assembly and moved on with it to prepare the grotesque state support for his fraudulent reelection of last year.
Maduro advances many made up excuses to request an enabling law of his own, NONE making sense. He wants to use it to fight corruption but all the necessary legislation already exists. The regime simply refuses to apply it, refuses to tackle corruption which latest example is found with a public official caught with 400K euros in cash in Bulgaria. He wants to use it to fight an alleged economic coup, so that there will be no food shortages. But the solution is easy there since the regime already controls all the foreign currency outflow, already controls the price structure, already can expropriate whatever it wants, already can jail any "saboteur". He wants to use it to stop Venezuela's dependency from oil but he forgets that chavismo has been in office for soon 15 years, has had already enabling laws and the end result of them is that MORE THAN EVER we depend on oil. Another enabling law is not going to solve any of these issues. NONE.
So, what gives? We need to search the true reasons of the enabling law elsewhere, in the murky waters of the internal power struggles of chavismo. Basically we have two sides, each with significant subgroups. To simplify matters there are the "moderate" which understand the value of money and that we are in a globalized word that imposes some of the rules that all must follow least they fall on the wayside. If the economic failure of Chavez, and Cuba, and Zimbabwe and others are not enough for you to understand what is meant by a minimum of rules to follow then it means that your interests are elsewhere, in Nincompoopia. The "radicals" are the other side, the ones that praise to high heaven the tyranny of the Castros over Cuba, who think that indeed Venezuela belongs to Nincompoopondwana, the famed continent where the USSR was a production power house and where Cuba is actually a tropical paradise.
Loosely Diosdado Cabello represented the "moderates", those that love dictatorship with profits. One of his men, or at least kindred spirit in the Maduro government, was Merentes, the finance minister in charge of the vice presidency on economic matters. The "radical" wing was better represented though the fact that "moderates" were officially present seemed to indicate a certain falling back after Chavez death. However in recent weeks it was clear that Cabello did not seem to have the ascendant that he once had. The departure of Merentes, foretold by his clear inability to impose his economic views over Giordani, Jaua and Arreaza, seems to indicate that the "radicals" have finally wooed the "neutral" group led by Ramirez, the smaller, more discrete group in the cabinet but the one that knew how much cash was truly available from oil production. Ramirez is an ideologue, a "resentido social", and should have been counted from the starts in the radical group were it not that his utter lack of charisma and link to the common folk made him realize that he had more to gain personally if he stayed aloof in the immediate post Chavez era.
This is how we must read what is going on this week. The "radicals" are trying to edge once and for all whatever "moderates" are left in charge. It is too early to decide for certain whether this is a mere electoral ploy to mobilize the radical bases to avoid a disaster in December. I think unfortunately that it goes deeper than that. The economy is tanking and the radicals feel cornered. They have decided to remove once and for all any democratic pretense so as to remain in power through repression. This start by insuring the unity of chavismo in a single faction, more able to tackle the democratic opposition later on.
The questions are now: Will Cabello allow for the enabling law to be voted? Will the corrupt and rich and lazy military cave in knowing full well that they will soil their hands with bloods if the radicals take over completely? Is the intricate network of corruption and blackmail inside chavismo enough to neutralize Cabello and the army higher ranks?
Maybe the time has come.
----------------------
UPDATE. So I watched the second part of Maduro's speech at the National Assembly tonight requesting the enabling law. I am not going to go into details as I sort of tweeted it live in Spanish. I am just giving you the executive summary.
The performance was pitiful: Maduro had all the trouble in the world reading the speech from a booklet. He did not write the speech, that much was obvious by the amount of words and sentences he had trouble with. In fact it is fair to assume that the speech was written by Giordani, the great apparent winner of the economic struggles of the past months. With the help of some Cuban advisors, of course.
The speech was insulting, idiot, uninformed, mean and ideological in a way that not even Chavez would have dared to do in his best years. As such it is clear that his appointed successor and help have not an inch of Chavez skills, but more than his hatred. Then again you need to understand that the speech was not meant for you or me, it was meant for the chavismo rank and file that is getting harder and harder to emote. And also to those inside chavismo that are refusing to follow the Cuban cue as burped out by Maduro.
I think the performance was pitiful and I doubt that Maduro got much traction with it. It is clear that his objective is to muzzle any opposition to his rule, and not only the democratic one. That Cabello screamed and cheered is simply beyond my understanding as he is one of the targets of the proposed law. I also doubt that trying to blame all of the shortcomings of 14 years of Chavez and 10 months of Maduro on anyone but themselves really does not work much today. I know, I know, the Venezuelan electorate has demonstrated ample stupidity and venality in the last decade but I am going to remind you the stuff that you can fool all of the time some of the people, some of the time all of the people but never all of the people all of the time. And when I write ALL I mean the group that voted for Chavez in 2000.
What happened tonight was indeed a declaration of war but we are not sure against whom, and for what objective. In fact, I am not sure whether Maduro knows.
Note: Maduro was abundant in his insults and reproaches but we still does not know anything about the specifics of his request.....
Friday, 13 September 2013
Maduro's main problem, is not necessarily Cabello
The guessing game these days, featured today even on Zeta front page, is whether "president" Maduro will finish off his real rival, Diosdado Cabello. I am of the school of those that think that Maduro has somewhat comforted his hold inside chavismo but that this is mostly circumstantial, in view of the December vote. The reckoning starts the day after. But the main problem in Maduro complex situation is probably a very simple one: "it's the economy, stupid!"; except that it has a very, very different meaning in Venezuela than what Clinton implied 20 years ago.
One of the reasons of Chavez success, and certainly the one that allowed him to survive the 2002-2003 crisis to come back swinging in 2004 is that he inherited a deficient country but one that was producing enough for basic subsistence. In fact in the last two terms of the pre Chavez era, in spite of all the economic problems then, the trend had been to produce more food in the quieter years. This allowed Chavez to dispose of a significant income for a lot of his plans since he did not need to buy as much food and sundries the regime is now forced to import.
But in 2003 Chavez in all earnest started his "social programs" that consisted basically in paying off people, not teaching them to fish. And in 2004 he started his expropriation policies. The consequences were perfectly predictable.
First, people that got used to receive freebies wanted ever more freebies to continue to vote for the regime. But the policies of expropriation of land and of industrial extortion through currency control exchange and corruption and power abuse stopped the growth of the productive economy. True, banks, commerce, telecommunications maintained the charade of a growing economy but agriculture and manufacture either dwindled or were unable to match the growth in population along it growth in demand. Classic.
Already in 2006 the first signs were appearing and the first wave of product scarcity helped a lot Chavez loss of the 2007 referendum. Since then, with more or less intensity inflation started to grow while food scarcity had a trend toward increase. Until now where the index of food scarcity is around 20% and inflation above 40% annual. 20% food scarcity index means, by the way, that you will not get more than 80% of the times in your grocery list in a single stop, or, more dramatically that you need to go to 5 different stores to find, say. milk.
And thus the chavista "budget" became unsustainable.
Now, in chavismo terms budget has a different meaning than in a normal country. Basically there are 5 parts in a chavista budget. One part indeed is destined to pay bureaucrats and keep them blackmailed or happy so that they keep voting for chavismo. Another part is for public works, not to build new stuff, but to spend only on collapsing bridges and the like. Never on maintenance, of course, just repairs when it cannot be helped. The third portion is seasonal, depending on the proximity of elections, and consist of social programs that shall be financed only for the duration of a given election. It is the direct "vote buying" part, that goes from direct handouts to massive food importations for distribution nearly for free. The other two parts are the more sensitive.
The first of the sensitive part is the one that is used, or rather, was used to promote the international reputation of Chavez. This included solidarity assistance programs like cheap oil for Caribbean friends to outright useless weapons purchase. Without forgetting the outright lifeline support for the agonizing Cuban tyranny. And it is that 4th portion of budget that primed the creation of the 5th and last part of the budget, the one destined to corruption.
You need to understand that the management of the national funds for strictly electoral purposes and promotion of the beloved El Supremo implied increasing "technical" illegal actions that had to be paid. Those who did the illegal deeds, from electoral fraud to illegal foreign donations, had to be paid off and to cash in. Quickly enough the pump was primed until today some speculate that as much as a third of the national budget is basically lost to corruption, or its indirect expression, utter mismanagement. The drama of Maduro today is that Chavez left items 4th (Cuban subsidy) and 5th (utter corruption) as the two main budget points and there is not enough money.
For all his inefficiency. incompetence and outright criminality, Chavez had enough production left that he could more or less manage the 5 elements of a "chavista budget". But since around 2010 production had become insufficient and the regime had to spend more and more money on importing El Pueblo's welfare. Borrowing allowed the regime to maintain the 5 points equilibrium but with a decrepit oil production since 2012 this is not possible anymore and Maduro needs to cut off one of the five items.
Logic would dictate that cutting off the corrupt system of the regime should be enough to reestablish equilibrium. But corruption has become the basis of the power for the regime, the only way you have to pay people that will steal elections for you, that will repress civilians that would dare to protest, to pay the judges to emit the political sentences you need, to satisfy the army by letting that one purchase the weapons, etc. cutting corruption is now impossible because too many have stolen too much and can blackmail too many if ever threatened.
True, item 4 of the budget, foreign aid can and is cut down. The problem there is that the bulk is for Cuba and not only that portion cannot be cut down whatsoever, but it is also linked now intimately with the corruption part of the budget.
Touching to part 1 or 3 of the budget is a sure loss in elections and part 2 is now so minor that there is little that can be cut there, not that it would be possible since it is also linked increasingly with corruption.
In other words, the bad economy since 2008 has overtime deprived Maduro of the means to perform the difficult balancing act between corruption and providing the subsistence of El Pueblo. One has to yield.
The economic problem per se is that not enough taxes come in to supplement the dwindling oil revenue. Sales tax and income tax are linked to how performing the economy is and these days inflation certainly helps a lot in a numerical increase of the tax receipts but is a bitch about conserving the purchasing power of these tax receipts.
Of course Maduro could do things. He could cut down of the ridiculous subsidies on gas and electricity. He could let private business breathe a little bit easier by relaxing the punishing legal context. He could stop expropriations. He could decentralize public works so that that budget is used more efficiently and prime the production pump. He could start a progressive devaluation that the public could accept in exchange of a steady supply of at least a couple of dozen of food items. He could cut outright weapon purchases. He could reactivate the state purchase system through open bidding.
But doing ANY of the measures above would imply that chavismo stops being chavismo and that is simply unacceptable for one of the affected groups inside chavismo. Maduro is trapped because the degrading economy deprives him of political muscle. And so would be Cabello for that matter.
One of the reasons of Chavez success, and certainly the one that allowed him to survive the 2002-2003 crisis to come back swinging in 2004 is that he inherited a deficient country but one that was producing enough for basic subsistence. In fact in the last two terms of the pre Chavez era, in spite of all the economic problems then, the trend had been to produce more food in the quieter years. This allowed Chavez to dispose of a significant income for a lot of his plans since he did not need to buy as much food and sundries the regime is now forced to import.
But in 2003 Chavez in all earnest started his "social programs" that consisted basically in paying off people, not teaching them to fish. And in 2004 he started his expropriation policies. The consequences were perfectly predictable.
First, people that got used to receive freebies wanted ever more freebies to continue to vote for the regime. But the policies of expropriation of land and of industrial extortion through currency control exchange and corruption and power abuse stopped the growth of the productive economy. True, banks, commerce, telecommunications maintained the charade of a growing economy but agriculture and manufacture either dwindled or were unable to match the growth in population along it growth in demand. Classic.
Already in 2006 the first signs were appearing and the first wave of product scarcity helped a lot Chavez loss of the 2007 referendum. Since then, with more or less intensity inflation started to grow while food scarcity had a trend toward increase. Until now where the index of food scarcity is around 20% and inflation above 40% annual. 20% food scarcity index means, by the way, that you will not get more than 80% of the times in your grocery list in a single stop, or, more dramatically that you need to go to 5 different stores to find, say. milk.
And thus the chavista "budget" became unsustainable.
Now, in chavismo terms budget has a different meaning than in a normal country. Basically there are 5 parts in a chavista budget. One part indeed is destined to pay bureaucrats and keep them blackmailed or happy so that they keep voting for chavismo. Another part is for public works, not to build new stuff, but to spend only on collapsing bridges and the like. Never on maintenance, of course, just repairs when it cannot be helped. The third portion is seasonal, depending on the proximity of elections, and consist of social programs that shall be financed only for the duration of a given election. It is the direct "vote buying" part, that goes from direct handouts to massive food importations for distribution nearly for free. The other two parts are the more sensitive.
The first of the sensitive part is the one that is used, or rather, was used to promote the international reputation of Chavez. This included solidarity assistance programs like cheap oil for Caribbean friends to outright useless weapons purchase. Without forgetting the outright lifeline support for the agonizing Cuban tyranny. And it is that 4th portion of budget that primed the creation of the 5th and last part of the budget, the one destined to corruption.
You need to understand that the management of the national funds for strictly electoral purposes and promotion of the beloved El Supremo implied increasing "technical" illegal actions that had to be paid. Those who did the illegal deeds, from electoral fraud to illegal foreign donations, had to be paid off and to cash in. Quickly enough the pump was primed until today some speculate that as much as a third of the national budget is basically lost to corruption, or its indirect expression, utter mismanagement. The drama of Maduro today is that Chavez left items 4th (Cuban subsidy) and 5th (utter corruption) as the two main budget points and there is not enough money.
For all his inefficiency. incompetence and outright criminality, Chavez had enough production left that he could more or less manage the 5 elements of a "chavista budget". But since around 2010 production had become insufficient and the regime had to spend more and more money on importing El Pueblo's welfare. Borrowing allowed the regime to maintain the 5 points equilibrium but with a decrepit oil production since 2012 this is not possible anymore and Maduro needs to cut off one of the five items.
Logic would dictate that cutting off the corrupt system of the regime should be enough to reestablish equilibrium. But corruption has become the basis of the power for the regime, the only way you have to pay people that will steal elections for you, that will repress civilians that would dare to protest, to pay the judges to emit the political sentences you need, to satisfy the army by letting that one purchase the weapons, etc. cutting corruption is now impossible because too many have stolen too much and can blackmail too many if ever threatened.
True, item 4 of the budget, foreign aid can and is cut down. The problem there is that the bulk is for Cuba and not only that portion cannot be cut down whatsoever, but it is also linked now intimately with the corruption part of the budget.
Touching to part 1 or 3 of the budget is a sure loss in elections and part 2 is now so minor that there is little that can be cut there, not that it would be possible since it is also linked increasingly with corruption.
In other words, the bad economy since 2008 has overtime deprived Maduro of the means to perform the difficult balancing act between corruption and providing the subsistence of El Pueblo. One has to yield.
The economic problem per se is that not enough taxes come in to supplement the dwindling oil revenue. Sales tax and income tax are linked to how performing the economy is and these days inflation certainly helps a lot in a numerical increase of the tax receipts but is a bitch about conserving the purchasing power of these tax receipts.
Of course Maduro could do things. He could cut down of the ridiculous subsidies on gas and electricity. He could let private business breathe a little bit easier by relaxing the punishing legal context. He could stop expropriations. He could decentralize public works so that that budget is used more efficiently and prime the production pump. He could start a progressive devaluation that the public could accept in exchange of a steady supply of at least a couple of dozen of food items. He could cut outright weapon purchases. He could reactivate the state purchase system through open bidding.
But doing ANY of the measures above would imply that chavismo stops being chavismo and that is simply unacceptable for one of the affected groups inside chavismo. Maduro is trapped because the degrading economy deprives him of political muscle. And so would be Cabello for that matter.
Tuesday, 13 August 2013
Homophobia as a chavista weapon to destroy the opposition
Besides that I am particularly sensitive on the topic, what was most disgraceful tonight was the deliberate use of insult and homophobia to taint the opposition. Chavismo must have reached real lows that it is left with the language of the lowest life thug as political argument against its political adversaries. Let me try to summarize briefly, if I can, if my mind clears up some after the homophobic onslaught to which we were subject today, live on TV.
The thing is that the regime has decided to destroy the opposition, or at least its leadership. Polls are not good and there is no hope of improvement as the economy shows no sign of better days, nor measures can be taken by the regime to that effect. The regime is now a military one since the only way it could have survived the Chavez death and the constitutional violations that followed is because the army accepted them. Just look at who has power in the public administration and most of the time you will bump into a barracks product. Thus the current situation is forcing the regime into its final conversion to frontal military dictatorship, of a fascist nature; and homophobic as well as are all those kind of regimes in history, of course.
Besides the usual attacks against the opposition inherited from Chavez (traitor, pro US, blood thirsty capitalist, etc.) the new regime feels like it needs to push the ante. A few weeks ago started a massive propaganda blitz trying to prove that the opposition is the real culprit of corruption in Venezuela. This is not catching much because public opinion has not a jaundiced view on corruption and know very well that the regime is the most corrupt in our history, accepting the situation perhaps because, after all, many get the occasional freebie.
But the regime keeps pushing, using the corruption theme to get rid of some of the opposition leaders. Whether the charges pressed are real is irrelevant because the controlled judicial system will do what is expected from submissive judges; and, come to think of it, what is really sought is the discredit of that leadership by association no matter what a judge does in the end. After all, the same judicial system does not bother to examine sustained accusations of public notice against the regime own corruption, cases that dwarfs orders of magnitude whatever is charged to the opposition these days.
When you lean so heavily on a supposed financial corruption that does not fly in public opinion the final consequence is that you must extrapolate it to moral turpitude. The objective is to state that the accused party is more corrupt than the accusing party on so many levels that the accused cannot fight back in public opinion, the more so when the media is muzzled. To put it more simply, Diosdado Cabello may have stolen 100 million dollars by himself against, say, the 100 thousand that Mardo laundered, but Mardo is a worse criminal because he is ALSO gay, he hires whores, he smokes pot, he does not stop at red lights for old ladies. In the fascist Goebbelian tradition it does not matter how believable the charges are, the one that can repeat them the most, and the louder, will win the argument. Or so it goes because that argument is rarely won, and not for long, but at least the opposition shuts up for a while.
What happened tonight was the crossing of that line, accusing Primero Justicia to be a haven of faggots that dabble in prostitution at Miranda state house. And challenging the rest of the opposition to remain around PJ, very close to them, hugging that bunch of faggots, corrupt faggots by association.
There is no need to enter into the details, the excuses that chavismo used to cross that line: the historical mechanism that I hinted at above are always the same, even in Communist regime like Cuba who in their drift toward totalitarianism reach the same methods that fascists reach a little bit earlier. Let's just talk about the agents and what they said.
The main one, the one that crossed that line was Pedro Carreño (@pedrocarreno_e). This character has no credibility and as such has been the henchman of Cabello to start the most grotesque attacks against the opposition (like the broken nose of Maria Corinna Machado). Why do I write this? Because besides been a lout, the product of drunken barracks and whore houses according to chavista themselves, he made his reputation on announcing that Montesinos, the henchman of Peru's dictator Fujimori, was dead (he was not, just blackmailed by corrupt chavista security) and that Direct TV decoders had secret cameras to see what people did inside their home (take that! NSA). Thus for PedroCarroña Carreño there is no problem to assume the posture he did today, and assume it with relish, sort of coming out from his closet of repressed homophobia.
I can give you a short summary of Carreño performance tonight in La Verdad including a video impossible to watch for me right now to pick up details (Internet is getting worse by the day). But I had the distaste to watch it live and maybe it is a good thing that You Tube is basically out of order in Venezuela. Or you can go to Noticias 24 who carries in highlight the words he used:
Beyond the current political crisis, I need to remind readers that long ago I have pointed at the inner homophobia inside chavismo, at my bemusement on how come many gays actually supported a movement that had only contempt for them starting with Chavez himself whose silence on the issue was more deafening than an actual homophobic comment (the sexist ones, he did spread around easily). This is a government that has done nothing for gay except promising that they would do a lot for them. No civil union, no domestic partnership, no access to insurance for partners, no nothing except a vague "we do not discriminate" when in practice you have yet to have an only gay person holding any position of importance inside the regime though we know that many are closet cases.
There is a reason why homophobia is one of the tags of this blog, a tag that yet I use sparsely to avoid making it look like a personal issue. But tonight, I felt personally offended by these chavistas speakers. And even more offended because not a single one of the other chavista representatives had the courage to stand up and say that "PJ is corrupt but we should refrain on discussing their private lives". Not one of them. All guilty by association. But then again I should not be surprised, this is how fascism works.....
PS: for those who have the stomach for it, the video ofCarroña Carreño
The thing is that the regime has decided to destroy the opposition, or at least its leadership. Polls are not good and there is no hope of improvement as the economy shows no sign of better days, nor measures can be taken by the regime to that effect. The regime is now a military one since the only way it could have survived the Chavez death and the constitutional violations that followed is because the army accepted them. Just look at who has power in the public administration and most of the time you will bump into a barracks product. Thus the current situation is forcing the regime into its final conversion to frontal military dictatorship, of a fascist nature; and homophobic as well as are all those kind of regimes in history, of course.
Besides the usual attacks against the opposition inherited from Chavez (traitor, pro US, blood thirsty capitalist, etc.) the new regime feels like it needs to push the ante. A few weeks ago started a massive propaganda blitz trying to prove that the opposition is the real culprit of corruption in Venezuela. This is not catching much because public opinion has not a jaundiced view on corruption and know very well that the regime is the most corrupt in our history, accepting the situation perhaps because, after all, many get the occasional freebie.
But the regime keeps pushing, using the corruption theme to get rid of some of the opposition leaders. Whether the charges pressed are real is irrelevant because the controlled judicial system will do what is expected from submissive judges; and, come to think of it, what is really sought is the discredit of that leadership by association no matter what a judge does in the end. After all, the same judicial system does not bother to examine sustained accusations of public notice against the regime own corruption, cases that dwarfs orders of magnitude whatever is charged to the opposition these days.
When you lean so heavily on a supposed financial corruption that does not fly in public opinion the final consequence is that you must extrapolate it to moral turpitude. The objective is to state that the accused party is more corrupt than the accusing party on so many levels that the accused cannot fight back in public opinion, the more so when the media is muzzled. To put it more simply, Diosdado Cabello may have stolen 100 million dollars by himself against, say, the 100 thousand that Mardo laundered, but Mardo is a worse criminal because he is ALSO gay, he hires whores, he smokes pot, he does not stop at red lights for old ladies. In the fascist Goebbelian tradition it does not matter how believable the charges are, the one that can repeat them the most, and the louder, will win the argument. Or so it goes because that argument is rarely won, and not for long, but at least the opposition shuts up for a while.
What happened tonight was the crossing of that line, accusing Primero Justicia to be a haven of faggots that dabble in prostitution at Miranda state house. And challenging the rest of the opposition to remain around PJ, very close to them, hugging that bunch of faggots, corrupt faggots by association.
There is no need to enter into the details, the excuses that chavismo used to cross that line: the historical mechanism that I hinted at above are always the same, even in Communist regime like Cuba who in their drift toward totalitarianism reach the same methods that fascists reach a little bit earlier. Let's just talk about the agents and what they said.
The main one, the one that crossed that line was Pedro Carreño (@pedrocarreno_e). This character has no credibility and as such has been the henchman of Cabello to start the most grotesque attacks against the opposition (like the broken nose of Maria Corinna Machado). Why do I write this? Because besides been a lout, the product of drunken barracks and whore houses according to chavista themselves, he made his reputation on announcing that Montesinos, the henchman of Peru's dictator Fujimori, was dead (he was not, just blackmailed by corrupt chavista security) and that Direct TV decoders had secret cameras to see what people did inside their home (take that! NSA). Thus for Pedro
I can give you a short summary of Carreño performance tonight in La Verdad including a video impossible to watch for me right now to pick up details (Internet is getting worse by the day). But I had the distaste to watch it live and maybe it is a good thing that You Tube is basically out of order in Venezuela. Or you can go to Noticias 24 who carries in highlight the words he used:
Responde, homosexual. Acepta el reto, maricón. Reply, homosexual. Accept the challenge, faggot [actually a much worse term in that context]Then it was the turn of Disodado Cabello, sounding more moderate after the attacks of Carreño but equally as obnoxious, equally as homophobic in defending himself against homophobia. Again, yet another product of low educated barracks (@dcabellor).
Es problema de ellos (los dirigentes de Primero Justicia) lo que hagan con su culo, pero tienen que ser serios It is their problem [PJ] what they do with their ass, but they have to be serious.
Beyond the current political crisis, I need to remind readers that long ago I have pointed at the inner homophobia inside chavismo, at my bemusement on how come many gays actually supported a movement that had only contempt for them starting with Chavez himself whose silence on the issue was more deafening than an actual homophobic comment (the sexist ones, he did spread around easily). This is a government that has done nothing for gay except promising that they would do a lot for them. No civil union, no domestic partnership, no access to insurance for partners, no nothing except a vague "we do not discriminate" when in practice you have yet to have an only gay person holding any position of importance inside the regime though we know that many are closet cases.
There is a reason why homophobia is one of the tags of this blog, a tag that yet I use sparsely to avoid making it look like a personal issue. But tonight, I felt personally offended by these chavistas speakers. And even more offended because not a single one of the other chavista representatives had the courage to stand up and say that "PJ is corrupt but we should refrain on discussing their private lives". Not one of them. All guilty by association. But then again I should not be surprised, this is how fascism works.....
PS: for those who have the stomach for it, the video of
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