Tales of a military temper tantrum

What has inflamed the 2.0 tonight is the late afternoon address of Padrino Lopez, in cadena nonetheless. A quick video analysis follows.

The act at Chavez grave is a "desagravio", that is an act of redress, in this case of the memory of Bolivar, Chavez and the honor of Maduro. We get that in the first seconds. Of course this is a response of yesterday Ramos Allup iconoclast act or removing the images of Chavez and the fake Bolivar at the National Assembly. The fake Bolivar is a "reconstruction" based on the skull of Bolivar that Chavez got through profanation. So, from the start poor Padrino ends up being quite ridiculous defending a 200 yer old reconstruction which present Bolivar with more "negroid" characters than the portrait that Bolivar himself approved of.  But this bolivarian Venezuela....

In all truth here the outrage is against chasing Chavez from the National Assembly hallways where he should have never been to begin with. So the alleged Bolivar insult is used as an excuse to justify the defense of 17 years of ideologizing Chavez demi-god status.

Observe the actual camera focus at 40'' on the red foulard with the 4F which is the apology of the failed coup of 1992. Right there this is unconstitutional, illegal, traitorous and what next. Objectively there is no need to listen to the rest of the Padrino crap, but we must.

1:09 Padrino places Cilia flores above all the other representatives of chavismo. Some pigs are more equal than others.

2:03 Observe the panoramic of a fat military. Priceless.

2:35 The idiot taking pictures behind Padrino in what is supposed to be a most solemn occasion. They really cannot behave. Ever.

3:09 According to Padrino the whole fatherland has been "ultrajada" insulted, violated, etc... So he is the avenger.




3:30 He insists on Bolivar being the one offended. Go and see the Ramos Allup video again and tell me about that.

3:50 We finally get to Chavez "hijo insigne de bolivar y de la patria también" notable child of Bolivar and of the fatherland too. Note the order.........

Follows an amalgam as to Ramos Allup "ultraje" to the armed forces. Sure, the idol was toppled! Including biblical references of Jesus saying that you do not fight Satan with Satan. And suddenly at 6:30 Padrino approves of this, that they will not fight Satan with Satan.

7:45 close up of the fake Bolivar as he is cited that good manners make good laws. Really? Under Chavez?

Follows a dissertation about the preservation of Venezuelan history. never mind that Chavez rewrote it.

9:09 Freeze there and notice that the 3 army stars and the title of the communique Padrino then reads. You can see the title there.  By then you notice that the event has been very carefully planned.

Follows a series of banalities noting that Maduro is the embodiment of the state so he was also offended.

11;00 Padrino starts justifying the invented Bolivar of Chavez, starting that this image has been accepted by all (not by me anyway, but I do not want to make this post about me).

Follows more bullshit about how Venezuela became bolivarian.

11:35 Anti capitalist jab.

14:15 In defense of Misiones.

14:44 "Bolivar y Chavez", the amalgam is now complete. They cannot be separated and are both the embodiment of the fatherland. There you go!

15:33 The attempt at amalgam of Maduro to Chavez and Bolivar starts.

15:58 Padrino ratifies the army unconditional support to Maduro. Really? How often will that support need to be ratified? One wonders.......

16:59 "conciencia supraracional", supra rational conscience? What the f...? Is this the intellectual excuse for a coup?

And then, surprisingly, Padrino finishes this totalitarian speech with an olive branch of sort stating that all have Venezuelan best interests at heart and that such scenes should be avoided so as not to foster further divisions.  I, for one, read into this that Padrino has not read the speech he truly wanted to read. As to what that speech would be, I'd rather not speculate.

I do not know what this all means. However there are a few things that I can advance without fear of beeing too far from the mark.

First, for the armed forces living in inbred chavista and Cuban propaganda the idea that some people actually did not like Chavez at all is a surprise. For some reason they have equated a heavy imposed silence on us as a tacit acceptation of Chavez grandeur. It is not, and they are in shock.

Second, the actions of Ramos Allup have hit at the center of chavismo core beliefs, all that was used to justify years of looting and human rights violations in the name of a higher cause. That mental idol has also taken a hit.

Third, the regime suddenly realizes that the opposition means business and that a confrontation of powers is not a sure success for the regime. A rule in warfare is that you need to know your enemy. Watching the reaction of chavismo it seems that the opposition knows its enemy plexus much better than expected.

Still, Ramos Allup wishes he would have had it as easy as Leo the Isaurian.

Nowhere to go for chavismo

It is always sobering when you read that even a firebrand like Marianella Salazar writes in a major paper about the possibility of a coup, naturally,  as if she were talking about what to do next Sunday after the family BBQ.  I do not know about her sources to take this eventuality such matter-of-factly, but one thing is certain: major governmental paralysis is only too often the surest sign of a regime/government change. Hit your history books.

The fact of the matter is that since Chavez left for Cuba the country has been basically on standby. For all the electoral pandering the lone economic decision of importance taken was the devaluation in February which has turned out to be a mere robbery as most private debt of 2012 at 4.3 to the dollar has been paid, if paid, at 6.3 to the dollar. A 40%+ robbery. True, there has been an attempt at reducing expenses though with misguided targets, and probably all efforts voided by the latest loan from China which is for electoral purposes, and once again, leaving us into yet more national debt (I have read 60% of PIB which is terrible for a country that produces nothing of value for export).


Whatever the real numbers are on the economy what we know for certain is that the inflation is killing us while the country infrastructure, without upkeep for a couple of decades is crumbling at a faster speed, from gaping sinkholes in Caracas streets to constant power outages. For those of us still trying to have our business produce something, anything, the fight is harder by the day. Between the increasing difficulty to obtain less and less dollars to purchase our raw materials we are subjected to a relentless assault of bureaucrats acting as free agents to skim whatever they can from us, legally or not, it really makes no difference at this point. For many manufacturing business these days, trapped between abusive price controls, impossibility to manage labor force, scarcity of raw materials, logistical nightmares, it is increasingly coming down to meet payroll or pay our providers. Since by law we must do both then private debt increases or payroll is cut down, generating more social stress.

All of these is felt by the population which is realizing that the regime is simply unable to take any major decision. The regime is trapped into the prospect of radicalizing its system and accept state bankruptcy and the consequent repression that will be needed to control the masses; or the regime can start applying a dose of reality to state management, implicitly admitting that the bolivarian fraudulent revolution is over. The question thus, the real question, is why soon one year after the departure of Chavez the regime is unable to make up its mind.

I am offering one explanation here, of the many possible: chavismo is on the verge of fracturing itself. In Venezuelan history the break up of political parties is a recurrent theme. AD did it several times. Copei did it only once but it cost it its future. Even parties that did not make it to office managed to divide themsleves, such as Causa R, and even Primero Justicia when Lopez left. There is no accident that Venezuelan ballots offer dozens of political parties.

Specific chavismo, the PSUV, cannot escape that fate, the more so that it was founded as a support for Chavez, never along a strong ideological program, or at least a country objective. If the ambitions of Maduro and Cabello have been apparent and determined the inner struggles of 2012 and the first half of 2013, we cannot fail to note that chavismo itself was never able to unify the Venezuelan left, as many parties claiming that image still exist within chavismo (like the Communist party and other assorted small groups). Amen of the left that never joined chavismo or abandoned 2007, or even earlier.

I think that one reason why the regime is unable to take real political and economic measures is that any it may take will alienate one of the branches of chavismo and cause a break up. Since all inside know that a break up is a sure way to be booted out of office, they stick together at all costs, in particular the even higher cost of paralysis which is a slower way to be dismissed from office but the surest one.

The genius of Weil at Tal Cual
Values or corruption
Production or importation
Spending or investment
Debt, debt, debt....