A letter to Brexiters who think they are on top

So you won yesterday by a hair thin margin on such a transcendental question. You got rid of Cameron and you probably will get "common man" Boris or Farage as prime minister in charge of dealing all the unpopular mess that is coming your way. But I guess the Sterling Pound today is already having a few of you wondering if they did the right thing. Heck! No more cheap vacations in sunny Europe for the time being.

But if somethings could well change, some others cannot, no matter what you may believe.


To begin with, Brexit is not done deal yet. There will be a tough negotiation and when the final package comes I bet the "agreement" will not pass the muster of a general election or even a referendum. And if it were to pass, my money is on the UK changing its name to Little England as there is no reason why the Scots should be dragged down into your folly. Let me put it this way, your feel good vote of yesterday may end up in a bitter disappointment as you try to effectively "change" things.

And for all your new born chauvinism there are things that cannot change. Let's take France, for example.

No major countries that I can think of have such an intimate common history than France and England. We made each other what we are today.

The invasion of French words into English language may only be matched by the invasion of English words into French.

You may have won the Napoleonic wars but France had won the Hundred Years one before, and courtesy of both wars England and France became true nations.

You may have kicked out France from India and Canada but the French made you lose the big enchilada of the 13 colonies.

You may disparage French garlicky concoctions but the French drink better tea than you do.

We may have been rivals for ever but our best and brightest elites always spoke French AND English.

Montesquieu wrote the main texts on separation of powers and civil society, but he wrote these because of the impressions England made on him.

You keep buying countryside homes in France but the French have truly made London their favorite foreign capital to vacation and live.

And let's not forget freedom for the world owes to France and England mixing their blood in two world wars and resolute unity on many crisis afterwards.

And you think that Brexit will erase all of this? Think twice.

Father's day

It has been a rough week for your truly. On Monday I was mugged with all the problems that this entails for the rest of the week. And the week ends on Father's day, with a melancholy.


What happened Monday is that I was bringing supplies to the S.O. who is in the mid of a bad chemotherapy bout. I was cornered as I was getting out of my car by two motor bikes with two people on each. One of them a woman. I did not stand a chance, happy that they did not kidnap me, or steal my car or shoot me for sport.

The what they took me is not really the matter. My aging smart phone is gone (but for some luck of destiny the night before I had downloaded all the pics at home). My bag had some very personal valuable items that are of no use for them, except perhaps for the knife I always carry with me as the good Frenchman I am. The bag with the supplies they did not even look at it even though it had 5 liters of very precious milk and a brick of 50,000 bolivares that I bring regularly to the S.O. so he does not have to stand by cash machines or bank tellers where his weakness could make him an easy prey, with a probable fatal denouement if he were to be thrown on the floor in the scuffle.

Rather what the event left me was a profound thoughtfulness. I realize that I was in a hurry and not quite as careful as I usually am. That is, in Venezuela today you cannot make a single mistake because dark forces are always on the look out. Always.

I compared myself with the forest floor small rodent that needs to get out and scavenge for something to eat. That rodent needs to think about a lot of things before peeking out its den. There might be a wild cat close by. Maybe it will cross the path of soldier ants that shall make mince meat of it fast. If it needs to go near a clearing some bird of prey might pounce fast out of nowhere. Of course there are the silent slithering snakes.

Same thing for me, in particular the red snakes.

The rest of the week was a scramble to get some ID papers back, to cancel credit cards, change my passwords, to buy a new smart phone, an obligation in this country if you still have a job with some responsibilities.  I had to be exposed to what were a couple of bolibourgeois buying in front of me a golden Samsung S7 Edge priced 6 times more than the more modest Grand Prime that I had to downgrade to after my  stolen S3. That S7, for your information, is worth 100, ONE HUNDRED times the MONTHLY minimum wage in Venezuela.  I do feel already embarrassed to buy a smart phone which already costs 18 minimum wages, but I have no choice if I wanted a screen big enough to read who calls me without glasses (another security concern). At any rate, the cheapest of smart phones start at 10 minimum monthly wage. So there, 17 years of chavista equality down the phone drain.

This morning I was hoping to find some solace. The S.O. informed that he was starting to recover a little. I was safe at home, café au lait in hand (a luxury by itself) reading the weekly Tal Cual edition which had a special father's day issue. And a sad one as it focused on the broken families that cannot celebrarte such dates together because of emigration. The most conservative estimates give 1.5 million Venezuelans gone into exile since Chavez was elected. Apparently there are Venezuelan communities registered now in 96 countries, from the mighty half million in the US to a few dozens in Podunkistan.

And I started thinking about those of my family and friends that have left. For a while my close family did manage to stick together, but that is not true anymore, and it is about to get worse. My parents are now unable to come back to Venezuela for medical reasons. They could travel, yes, but they would not get the adequate care they need here, never mentioning that they cannot stand in line for food. For the third year in a row a phone call had to do, and them calling me since now there is no more direct calling to Europe. See, Venezuela state phone company is so broke that the regime has decided to go back to operator assisted calls to most countries so it can charge more. Private mobile phone companies have simply stopped offering the service. and you need to dial dozens of time until an operator answers.

But I digress, the point is that I cannot have my old parents anymore here, limiting myself to a yearly visit, as long as possible. But this summer I am losing two nephews who are graduating from high school and whose sad parents have to accept the financial sacrifice to send them overseas for college even though they have been accepted at one of the last decent private universities still operating in Venezuela. It is quite possible that they may never come back to Venezuela except perhaps for a brief Christmas stay as long as the parents still live here. My other nephews will follow the same path starting in a couple of years from now for the older one still here. Maybe in 5 years from now we will have all left.

That Maduro may fall this year does not change much the situation, the country has become a pit of red snakes.

Understanding the political moment

I have been back for two weeks now and events are just unfolding too fast for me to write about them, considering the depression that arises from coming back to what has become a hell hole. Let's just order our thoughts together, shall we?

L'air du temps:
Borges getting his nose broken

One way is to look at the main hard data and its effects. The reader on its own will be able to draw the general picture after the fact.


Jail for you

The driving force in this mega crisis is that under the concept of world justice and transparency a few dozens of the higher up in the regime know they will never be able to find peace and solace once out of office. Their fate for them is jail, tomorrow, in a decade, it does not matter. If they do not die first they will end up in jail. They know that.


See, they have stolen too much money, abused too many human rights, played too much on the drug traffic front. They are doomed and thus under no circumstance they can surrender power. Period. They will do what it takes to remain in office. Whatever. Second period.

I am not asking you to understand this, I am asking you to get this. If you do not get the implications of the above you cannot make sense of what is going on in Venezuela these days. Might as well stop reading now.

No food while we wait for oil price to rise

The awful economic crisis that is now open comment world wide has not its origin in the low oil prices. After all Venezuela has had downfalls in oil price before and we managed. For that matter the first two years of Chavez rule had oil price way lower than they are today and yet shelves were full of food and he did not need to create food distribution systems like those of today which reek of corruption and political apartheid while being ineffective, even in their political goals.

The real, the only reason for the food and medicine shortages today has been a more than dismal management of the economy over the last 17 years, not to mention its willful destruction to the profit of the new corrupt oligarchies of military origin. The productive apparatus of the country has been destroyed through a system of price controls, political harassment to business and corrupt importations to sabotage local production. Today, even if magically all restrictions were lifted, if security was magically restored to producers and workers, it would take at least 5 years for Venezuela to be able to insure food for its people at subsistance level. Period.

There is a clear understanding now that this situation can only be solved with a removal from office of the current leadership. The proposed means may differ from the opposition to radical left of Marea Socialisa, but all agree that as long as Maduro is in office he is unable/unwilling to take any real measure to face down the crisis. In fact, Maduro's political faction is trying to use the crisis as a way to control  the country by deciding who gets food. The social explosion risks are worrying the army while at the same time they risk to wipe out the remnants of the private sector that will be needed to rebuild.

The saddest thing is that the regime puts its salvation on a return to high oil prices, which are at best for late 2017 when it would be too late for the country. But see if they care.

International paralysis

What is complicating the crisis is the inability of the rest of the world to come together to put adequate pressure on the regime. Or to support it for that matter.

During his tenure with a deep oil check book that Chavez had no problem using cash for corruption and waste on political patronage overseas, Thus we have, for example, small shitty island nations of the Caribbean which have no problem letting Venezuelans starve for their petty gains (note that neither Europe of the US have the will to help and put pressure on these islands, hypocrisy everywhere).

But countries that should know better are mired in contradictions. Let's start with the US which amazingly think that helping a Castro transition is less costly in the long run that to put pressure on the Venezuelan regime. Why? Because the US hopes that Venezuela will foot the bill for Cuba's regeneration. That this, a now turned idiotic policy may create two problems for the US where it had only one. This seems not to flicker in the outgoing administration who seems now resigned to let whoever is sworn in in January 2017 deal with it.

That or the US business hopes to pick clean the bones of Venezuela after the debacle. All is possible.

Another pathetic case is the fast unraveling of Argentin's Mauricio Macri support for the Venezuelan cause. 6 months ago Macri was dancing on his election victory stage with Leopoldo Lopez wife Lilian Tintori. Now for reasons that are not clear to any one, and probably not even to Macri, it is Argentina who seems to sabotage any bite in possible OAS resolutions/sanctions against the regime. Whatever reasons Macri may have, they are so far failing him badly and he is looking like a fool. Heck, even Susana Malcorra were his mistress in addition to his foreign secretary could not explain the blunders.

Where the voters are

All of this is enough to create a potent crisis brew. But the debacle of the pre-recall election maneuvers was a wake up call for a regime that has grossly overestimated its real support. Actually, make that a dramatic wake up call for a regime that has lost its political flair. Apparently the regime truly thought that in the country of Tascon extortion records, official blackmail and indentured social programs the opposition would have all the trouble of the world to gather 1% of the electorate to sign up for a recall election. It got 8 %. In three days. And could have gotten 20% with a couple more of days and advance notice.

This has been the trigger for the current paranoia. Since early May the regime has realized that they are electorally doomed, for the time being at the very least. No elections whatsoever can be held in what was under Chavez a plebiscitary system. In fact, as far as Maduro is concerned, we probably cannot even have elections for dog-catcher, ever.

All the regime maneuvers since mid May are designed to avoid an election until next year, in particular a Recall Election. In fact the regional elections are probably going to be annulled any time soon as the regime is certain to loose way more than half of the state houses. The Army certainly cannot accept that so many ex-military now turned corrupt governors may be democratically unseated. But I digress.

While the regime finds a way to ease our transition into fully developed election free dictatorship it needs to avoid a Recall Election on Maduro this year. All excuses are valid, even the stupidest ones. I am not going to narrate what the electoral board CNE is doing in detail. Suffice to mention the latest incident where the CNE has voided the signature of 600.000 folks on absurd technicalities. The perversity and outright provocation was clearly underscored by the discovery that many opposition politicians who signed on camera had their signature annulled. Capriles, for one, the main promoter of the recall election, had his form annulled because it was not clear whether the form spelled Maduro or Madoro. You cannot make up things like that. And to add insult to injury Capriles cannot fix the "mistake" while the regime got yet another week prolongation for those who wished to have their signature taken away. And with the Tascon method of blackmail you can be sure that a few are going to blink and revert their name while those who want to add theirs cannot do so.

Prognosis

I personally hope, for charity, that the CNE intention was provocation rather than sloppiness. But it may well carry a steep dose of sloppiness in the methods chosen to void a recall election. The regime feels so cornered, so weak, that it is acting on reflex, on survival instinct. Thus the legality, or even basic common sense of its measures do not matter anymore. We are past the time of fig leaves.

The fact of the matter is that the economic depression has been getting worse and this week we saw major riot trouble in Petare and Catia, two zones which should be, on paper, chavista strongholds. But people are hungry. And I mean, hungry. And no matter what Argentina as a fool, or the shitty Caribbean island states may try, the OAS may be about to apply the Democratic Charter. That or Venezuela being booted out of Mercosur. Whichever comes first, for starters.

The truly big question here is whether the army will accept to pay the price of political repression, the last remaining option for the regime.

Some, like general Zavarce seem ready. He deliberately had his men push Representative Borges toward a crowd of colectivos on the pay roll of Caracas mayor Jorge Rodriguez. They did not kill Borges but they did break his nose, probably for lack of time. All is now in the open on the Thursday assault.

Others like Cliver Alcala are not on board anymore even if his name is linked to narco traffic.

The decision on a recall election rests there, in what the army will decide. And for that matter the decision whether Maduro remains president. See, the problem is not how to remove Maduro, this is actually quite easy once a political agreement is reached and he is made to resign. No election needed. Maduro is not ruling anymore, he is the front man. Thus the problem is truly not how to get rid of Maduro but who to put in his place.

That is the Gordian knot.

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Additional material

Observe the goonery look of the colectivos on chavista payroll. Again, such things cannot be made up. Do not accuse me of profiling!

Para que se rechace de verdad la violencia y se haga Justicia, 2 de los agresores: Roberto Marcano y Franklin López. pic.twitter.com/xPOaYDqUaP

— Julio Borges (@JulioBorges) June 11, 2016

Scenes of a bitter return

Warning: absolutely non politically correct post follows (á la Trump?)
But real.

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I am coming up from the airport.  Reaching the curb from a grocery store not too far away from home I notice the food line that reaches a crossing that it never reached before. Think 6 blocks.

Since there is traffic I can observe the line. Not only these people are not from the area, but they look like goons and thugs. They are, to tell you the truth, scary. I grab the camera to film but the light goes green.

Down the hill I arrive at the store. No line there. There are plenty of cops and the line has been in fact pushed back by them two blocks away. Which explains why I found it so long. The explanation? There was a looting attempt by people who come from far away from the neighborhood.

I suppose it is just a matter of time the locals decide to loot first least these "bachaqueros" take all of their food quota first?

Welcome home Kotter.

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In my first few days at home I notice a dramatic change. There are now lines ALWAYS at any of the grocery stores of the area. Whether things arrive is irrelevant, there is a crowd, always the same type of crowd from some far starved/bachaquero lumpen that have put the area under siege. They leave around 5 PM so they can make it back to their homes before night fall.

After all, they are equally victims of crime, the more so if they back home in the dark with some food.

Oh, and yes!  These unfortunate people look as wretched, as lumpen as they looked 17 years ago when Chavez was elected. There you go with your XXI century socialism.

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My cleaning lady is upset and scared, and near tears when she tells me the stories.

In the past three weeks the area has become very unsafe in day time. People that walk the streets are now getting mugged broad daylight. And she has more trouble than ever to get food.  Why?

The invasion of bachaqueros in the area follows a clear modus operandi.

They arrive in "busetas", those worn down mini vans or mini bus that can carry up to 20 people, more if necessary... These unload the bachaqueros in front of a given store. The group arrives and breaks to the front of the line threatening as needed the locals, who terrified give them sway, the more so when home made weaponry is shown (chuzos like those made in Venezuelan jails). Sometimes more busetas arrive when from some magical knowledge they learn that this particular store will get more supplies than usual. There is indeed deep internal corruption links with some of the employees of these grocery stores. They get their cut of the loot.

Remember that what bachaqueros buy is for resale at bloated prices. That is their job, stand in line every day and find more than what they need so as to make their income out of black market prices. there are no other jobs available for them in chavista Venezuela.

So you may have different groups of bachaqueros holding the line (there are inter bachaquero fights reported by the locals who flee the scene). But all within a group need not to stand in line. After all with an SMS they can quickly come back as soon as a delivery truck is spotted. So what do these do? They scour the neighborhood to track down solitary walkers, isolated cars, and the like. Crime rises. No way around it since the scarce cops that Baruta town hall can afford as budgets shrink are not enough to keep order at the front of the line.

My cleaning lady tells me that know she leaves at 4AM to get on line in the vain hope sometimes that she will beat the bachaqueros. And sometimes, if she got significant stuff she is forced to take a cab back home. A cab, needless to say, that is a heavy burden on her budget.

Poor people stealing from poor people since people like me either do not consume much of the basic price controlled staples (starch/oil) or can afford black market (up to a point that is).

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So a few days ago I am having lunch at the fast food court of the Tolon mall with somebody visiting and that wants to know more about Venezuela.

I am having a chicken sandwich and yuca breaded sticks (no potatoes so manioc will do, quite well actually). Yes, food courts are still reasonably supplied. They are expensive and less people can afford them. Thus if you can afford, the supply exists for the privileged still hanging on......

The food court is on the top of the mall and yet now beggarly characters do manage to get up there (mall budgets cannot afford guards as they should, nor do the guards would care or be able to do much about it anyway).

One comes to our table and asks money for food. Annoyed at the interruption and out of cash I try to wave him away. He points out to my yuca sticks and ask for one. Without thinking about it I grab one with my fingers and handle it to him. He picks it and goes away eating it.

This is how damaged we have all become after 17 years, all, including myself.

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Last Friday there were the first food riots about 4 blocks from Miraflores Palace as the regime has decided to grab the increasingly scarcer controlled items and to reserve them to their followers. Exclusively, through the already infamous CLAP, the new violent sect being bred to enforce a political apartheid in Venezuela. Holomodor is it already called on the net.

I may be damaged, but clearly the regime holders are now beyond any redemption.

So, are we invaded or not?

One maddening thing about being overseas is dependency on tweeter to try to follow what is really going on in Venezuela. Except for the honorable mention of El País in Spain the rest of the world has, understandably, more important matters to deal with than a suicidal asshole of a country. And yet even French TV, the all news channels that is, find time between the ridiculous "Nuit Debout" with their spoiled trade unions protests and Egyptian  mystery planes to cover recent Venezuelan events.


The point here is that no one seems to believe anymore what the regime says. True, there are some like PODEMOS in Spain who unable to hide their past financing by Chavez are still defending the regime or at least remain silent. But the fact of the matter is that Venezuela is an embarrassment for all, for having let it go so far or for having supported it so long. All want it to go away. At least this is the impression I get.

And why would it be otherwise?

Maduro publishes a super-duper emergency decree controlling everything under the sun. The National Assembly turns it down. The high court TSJ declares it constitutional, which it is not, and the way it was turned down by the Assembly was so constitutional that even the TSJ could not directly assail it. So now, for the love of the deity, I am not sure whether the decree is applicable or not. Though apparently there is a state of commotion or something at play....  You tell me.

Saturday the military exercises to defend Venezuela took place. We saw pictures of soldiers? militia? wearing Cuban flags, wielding sticks in lieu of rifles for a gran total of "troops" larger than D-day operations, if we are to believe tweeter wits. Meanwhile no one nowhere reported of any troop concentration unless you count an AWACS doing its routine drug traffic control over the Caribbean as the preparation of massive US Marine landing. If Uribe is raising an mercenary army against Maduro he learned well from the FARC on how to hide it.

But the cherry over the cake of ridicule was added by Maduro himself who with anti invasion military maneuvers, threat of coups, internal commotions, left Saturday to promote scientific and commercial exchanges with Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago.

Huh?

These islands have not much to offer Venezuela, and Venezuela even less back. However Maduro goes there for one and only one reason, to start a campaign to ensure he will retain at least a third of the OAS vote he needs to stop the application of the Democratic Charter on Venezuela. If Jamaica and Trinidad vote for the sanctions the small islands will follow and Venezuela will be an official pariah state. Brazil and Argentina lost there is only some cash left to buy these island votes, cash coming from killing a few Venezuelans from malnutrition and lack of medicine. But who cares?

That much we can understand. Coups, revolt and invasion  are all smoke screens to distract the Venezuelan hoi poloi. What really matters is revolutionary respectability, and places where to hide when the time comes.

The Hague is starting to look too good for some in the regime........







.

The developping coup

You need to keep following closely what is going on in Venezuela. Any distraction, the more so if you are overseas like yours truly these days, and you may miss the gran finale.

As expected, a cornered regime has started its moves to abolish the national assembly and establish a bona fide dictatorship. It has no choice: elections are not an option for them, they cannot win them even with massive fraud. And lose they cannot because a change of government means that too many of them will go to jail. Thus in front of the perspective of a recall election on Maduro that all indicate will be a sure defeat for Maduro there is nothing else left but to block the drive for recall election.  This is underway at great risk as the mood of the country is clearly set for change. Not necessarily in favor the opposition  but most definitely to kick out Maduro.

Meanwhile there is the financial question that the National Assembly controls and the impossibility to annul each and every single law the assembly votes. The OAS is getting ready to apply the Democratic Charter and time presses. Using the silly excuse that a foreign ex-president can by himself raise a mercenary army able to defeat the Venezuelan one last week end Maduro decreed a state of emergency with wide ranging attributions for Maduro. One of the worrisome ones is that PSUV committee for food distribution control, CLAP of recent creation, will have power to collaborate with army and police for public order. Translation : civilians from Maduro political party will become gauleiters directing armed folks to control non chavista folks, in particular those demanding a recall election. From denial of food to outright repression is how it will work.

Sure enough a few minutes ago the National Assembly exerted it's constitutional right, and duty, to reject the said decree established to defend, allegedly, the fatherland. Now we are left to see how Maduro and the rubber stamp cum private regime attorney high court TSJ rules out such a momentous and necessary Assembly vote. Beyond constitutional considerations just on ethical parameters, the decree of Maduro cannot be accepted. Period.

And thus we are now on the "my way or the highway" moment we were all awaiting eagerly.

Is Maduro going to be allowed to "defend" the country at any price, including democracy, human rights and parliamentary representation?

Is the Assembly to be allowed to control an executive clearly going bonkers?

Time's up

UPDATED: unknown to me as I was typing this overseas, Maduro was in cadena announcing a new emergency decree rendering moot the National Assembly and annuling Recall Election efforts for all practical purposes. In short confirming all that I wrote below.
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I have the feeling that the fall of Dilma in Brazil is going to speed up the conclusion of the Venezuelan farce. For the Narko-Cubano-Colonial regime action is required before the Temer presidency gets a chance to settle in. Not that the odds are with Temer, but Raúl and Maduro simply cannot take the chance.

I do not agree on the way that Dilma was pushed out. The nominal excuse was silly. But that she richly deserved what was coming her way, she did. What sealed her fate was naming Lula minister to protect him from prosecution. Such a breach of ethics makes any sitting president unfit for office. They, Brazilian congress, simply decided to act on what was in the mill and the lack, so far, of popular support for her and Lula show that "o povo" has a hard time to rally, or at least is not convinced that keeping Dilma in office is going to improve its lot.

Temer and his new cabinet are far from inspiring confidence. But if you have bothered reading the hisstory of Brazil you will know that they are used to such shifts and that they will likely give him a few weeks, maybe months. After all there is the technicality that Dilma may win her trial and be reinstated within 6 months though the impeachment tally makes that highly doubtful.

This being said the Castros and Maduro/narco-military have lost their main support. The head of Odebretch is in jail, provisional president Temer may chose, or not, to ventilate corruption cases to silence Lula and Dilma as needed since he is the one with the key to the files now. Even a return of Dilma cannot guarantee the strong support of yore.

What would Brazil do if there were a massive constitutional and human right violation in Venezuela? If Brazil goes against Venezuela it is likely that Uruguay will follow and Mercosur will be unanimous in its condemnation.  Once Peru election is held in June even Unasur would go against Venezuela (and the recent hurried support to Dilma by Unasur secretary, the highly discredited puppet Samper, betray that worry).

Thus the time for Castro to give the order to Maduro, and/or the narco-military to take the initiative to dissolve the national assembly once and for all is now. It is still possible that the OAS could fail to get enough votes to apply the democratic charter to Venezuela after Maduro acts. But once Temer decides to act against Venezuela, with the support of Macri in Argentina, the US and Canada, Mexico would follow. Small countries then will chose the big countries against a flat broke violent Venezuela and game over: Venezuela would be a pariah state and go the way of Cuba out of regional organizations.

But with the narco-military still in charge. Or that is the plan anyway.

And thus it is the time to act for them, the thugs, now, before Temer even has a chance to look at Venezuela. All that has been going on since last Monday points that way.

1%, a world in a number

I have been very distracted by many problems and now I am overseas, among other objectives, to fetch medicines not available anymore in Venezuela for me and my SO (and others). But I could not pass on a brief comment on what should be called the 1 % affair that was held as I fixed to leave the country.

In short, the electoral board, CNE, established fictitious requirements to request for a recall election on Nicolas Maduro. The constitution previews that the requirement to force a recall election  on an elected official is to gather 20% signatures of the registered voters of the given electoral circuit. But the CNE in a crass delaying tactic decided that even though Maduro electoral district is the whole country the MUD alliance needed to get first 1% in EVERY state and THEN it would be allowed to collect the needed 20%. The objective was simple: the regime hoped that in very chavista, very dependent states like, say, Delta Amacuro, the MUD could not manage the 1% holy grail. There is, after all, the infamous Tascón List precedent of the 2004 recall election that affected the lives of hundreds of thousands of folks, including yours truly. If this was scandalous enough by itself there were plenty of other road blocks set by the CNE, quite often of a very childish nature.

To make a long story short, after quite a long arm wrestling the CNE finally released a specific form (la planilla) to collect that 1%. Yet, in a rushed and improvised operation within three days the MUD collected around 8%. That is right, the regime truly thought that the MUD would have trouble collecting in 3 days in all states the fateful 1%. The MUD largely overtook that goal in every state, probably by the end of the first day.

Now, that was a political miscalculation......

Clearly at this stage, in spite of the December electoral loss, in spite of the worsening economical and scarcity crisis, in spite of galloping inflation, in spite of negative unanimous polling, the regime is still underestimating popular rejection of its policies, probably still riding on the illusion that Chavez-dreaming is enough to numb the masses though hungry nights. By putting so many obvious roadblocks the regime only angered further the people, hence the opposition stunning success. The reactions of the regime shows that the wake up call was harsher than in December, at least as I see it.

The problem for the regime is not that the opposition is all but certain to get the 20% signatures it needs. The problem is not that the opposition is all but certain to win the recall election since roughly any signature represents at least two votes considering the fear political context of repression in the country. The problem is that the opposition MUD could well get more signatures than the number of votes that Maduro got three years ago making the recall election a moot point... Such a humiliation would be worse than losing any election and could cause a regime instant debacle.

The problem of the regime has not been Maduro for a while: the military have been the real rulers since the 2014 repression. The problem for the regime if not how to replace Maduro but with what. Now, with that 1% thing it has become an urgent matter.

I see two options for the regime.

The regime "negotiates" a way out through either a recall election or a Maduro resignation where it accepts that a tolerable opposition figure runs to finish the two years left in the presidential term. I do not see why the opposition should accept this or how the narco generals would even bow to that limited amount of real politik.

The regime stalls and blocks the recall election  and Maduro resigns next year letting an appointed transition vice president finish the term.  Very perilous unless it is a national agreement and the said vice president is appointed like, well, now. Again, I doubt Cuba and the narco generals will be on board.

And there is always the option to kick the game board and establish an outright dictatorship.

Genocidal class warfare in Venezuela

Last week I took the S.O. to his monthly chemotherapy. We were late by almost two weeks while he was dealing with side effects of the preceding cycle. Thus it had been nearly two months. The place is an ample room with about 15 comfy chaises for patients and an extra chair for accompanying people. Usually it is full and often we had to wait up to an hour for our turn.

What was my surprise to see that only two other chairs were taken and that the S.O. went straight to a chair of his choice!


I asked our regular nurse in a bit of dark humor whether everyone was cured or dead. She told me that there are two reasons for attendance to drop dramatically over the last two months. One, the treatments must keep apace with inflation which means that it is becoming quite a burden for many, even with insurance, as paychecks are not following inflation. But more dramatic, oncologie medicine stocks have been exhausted for many type of cancers, in particular the more common ones like breast cancers. I suppose that in a perverse irony of the Fates my S.O. is lucky to have a rarer cancer... por ahora.

We were told that for those who cannot find medicine there is only two options: suspend treatment in the hope that the regime will keep its promise of finding "generics" which are of dubious quality when triangulated with Cuba as past experience demonstrates; or shell out foreign currency.

So, what does it mean to pay your own way with foreign currency?

Let's look at some simple facts to begin. By law the regime/state has the monopoly of bringing into the country certain type of drugs: HIV, Cancer, Kidney failure, Organ Transplant and some other special cases. The reason was a good one (from the "4th republic" by the way, not Chavez): since those medicines tend to be expensive the state paid for them to allow for equal access. If you were poor you got treated at a public hospital; if you were rich or middle class with health insurance then you could pick up your practitioner and get less traumatic care than what you get as a general rule at Venezuelan public hospitals. Either way, you got treated.

But things went down under Chavez when, first, the regime decided to set up a parallel health care system that ended up in two equally deficient systems. With the crisis coming, an over saturated private system does not have the means, or vocation or the ability to replace the public system.  The more so that the regime refuses to give it access to free convertible dollars to buy medicine and supplies. As it is the case of food and general drugs, treatment and analytical supplies are also dearly missing. And this is made graver for patients who depend on drugs under state monopoly, a monopoly that the state refuses to give up even though it cannot fulfill it.

Thus, if you have access to USD, and want to get your prescriptions from the US (or Colombia or even Mexico) you will need at least one trip to establish contact with a local physician that will write you that prescription (particularly in the US where M.D. are so afraid of malpractice suits that they refuse to write anything without seeing the patient). Be it Bogota or Miami we are talking here 1.000 for a round trip, between 200 and 1.000 on staying expenses depending on whether you have relatives there, plus the medical bill that can easily reach a multiple of 1.000 depending on your ailment. This for your first month; for the rest you may bring a supply for more than one cycle if drug stability is OK, or have someone else pick it up for you upon your local physician notice, or go back to pick the next lot. All of this, of course, if the sick person is able to travel because if it cannot, then...

We are looking here at a bottom line of 2.500 USD a trip. Since the minimal wage in Venezuela is at 11 USD, that trip, for a month supply, represents 227 MONTHLY MINIMUM WAGE. Think about that for a minute.

Clearly, only the super rich can afford treatment today. If you are middle to upper middle class you may be able to pay for a few months and quickly deplete whatever savings you have outside of the country, if you have them. And then, well, join the poor.

The catch here is who are the super rich that have easy access to dollars for themselves or the relatives they chose to help. There are two groups, those that were already rich in USD before Chavez and those that became obscenely rich under Chavez. Many in the group BEFORE are either long gone anyway, or got long ago a US health insurance. Their concern, if any, is for relatives left behind. And those that did not leave the country during Chavez first years do not have an endless supply of US dollars, amen of having actually to earn these while the chavista super rich simply steal the money they need, in dollars, straight.

At this point it is simply inconceivable, it is a crime against Human Rights not to allow free, if targeted, convertibility of currency so that sick people can at the very least avoid the trip part for getting the care they need. The regime is coldly erasing through death or financial failure the historical middle to upper middle class since the only rich folks that can deal with the current situation are the ones close to the regime.

At least in this particular case, at this time, we can use the term "genocidal class warfare". You either die, go bankrupt or leave the country. You have no other option.

Some pro Chavez/regime supporter may point out that it is mere justice that all Venezuelans have to go though this, rich or poor.  After all, the poor do not get either the medicine, nor the health support. I will reply that totalitarian regimes do not care about what happens to their civilians. They are a mere casualty in the war for the just cause. It does not matter for the regime whether its supporters die in greater numbers, they are expendable. What matters in the end is that the opposition to the regime is broken. The end justifies the means. All methods are valid. Period.

Let me remind you historical precedents, such as Hitler not afraid to distract from its army and civilians resources for use in Jewish extermination carried out all the way to the last day of the war. Or how Stalin drive to liquidate Koulaks had no problem creating a general starvation, or how the Castros never lost a night of sleep over the balseros braving the straights of Florida or the Argentina's military sending unprepared soldiers to the Falklands, or....

The current holders of the Venezuelan regime have absolutely no qualms about letting people die of disease, and I mean not only cancer patients. Never mind those who will die soon of malnutrition and those who already die of violence in the barrios. What the regime wants is for denizens of El Cafetal, or Prados, or Altamira to stay terrified at home, looking at what next heirloom they will need to sell at low price to help buy medicine for cousin Juan. That chavista supporters suffer more, die in much greater numbers is really not an issue for Maduro.

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Note: I already wrote in Spanish a note on why there is already enough evidence to instruct a dossier on chavista leadership to send them to the Hague tribunal. I suggest that the National Assembly starts officially the procedure. After all, if Dilma got impeached Sunday I do not see why we should not try to do so with Maduro.

How long can Maduro hold?

The annulation of the Amnesty Law was so predictable that I did not bother with a post. Twitter was enough. However, what is worth a post is a meditation on how long a kleptocracy cum drug trafficking regime can hold it together.

The first thing we must consider is that by now the regime makes no pretense whatsoever. Under Chavez, at least some minimal delay was held, when possible.  Some lengthy presidential cadena "predicted" what a wished for action of other "powers of the state" should happen, and a few days later, voilá! X got to jail, Y was expelled, Z was annulled.  Now progress has been made: Maduro asks for an opinion and within a couple of days the high court, TSJ, serves notice. Unanimously of course.

There is no pretense whatsoever, not even the occasional dissent vote in the bench. You know, they could take turns to say a nay out of 32 justices. Rulings are written even sloppier than they used to be. In fact we even wonder if the court takes the time to read the annulled law. I, for one, think that as soon as a given article is voted at the Assembly, some chavista sends it to the court to prepare the annulment before the final law is even voted. How else could the TSJ beat any speed ruling record observed in any democracy, or even dictatorship for all that I know?

It is not only the TSJ that is blunt about paying no attention to the Assembly or the opposition wishes. The illegal electoral board, CNE, is writing new rules as it goes to stop any electoral initiative from the opposition. That is, the Chavez regime who went from plebiscite to plebiscite is now in the no-election mode. See, Chavez made victory credible (albeit known cheating). Today everyone knows, even chavistas, that neither Maduro nor Cabello could get elected consejo comunal dog catcher.

There are two ways to understand what is going on. Of course, what I repeat all the time, the driving force here is that the regime cannot allow to hand in power to someone else because that would mean that scores of chavistas would soon find their way to jail. Thugs and criminals and narco-traffickers are not known to surrender peacefully to popular will, no matter how lopsided that one is.

Thus the question: is this a show of strength or a show of weakness?

The weakness is easy to demonstrate. The regime has its own polls, even if it refuses to acknowledge the real life poll of December 6 2015. Popular support is fading so fast that open air meetings are rarer, least someone would take a picture of the real attendance (not long until a drone is flown over a chavista real-rally?). Thus the regime is in survival mode, a mode where chutzpah is significantly enhanced along irresponsibility and all sorts of crazy. Yes, the regime is scared, but as in cornered dog scared, biting right and left.

But the show of strength is also easy to understand. This is a regime that is in it for the long run. It is a regime that has made peace with brute force. Already legal and psychological brute force is employed from holding political prisoners to annulling even a weather report voted at the Assembly. Physical force is not as well set yet but the training has been done as we can see from how 2014 protests were repressed, but also now how food riots are repressed these days.

In short, it is a regime that knows it has the weapons and that is the holder of its own truth, a truth of having the financial power to ensure the survival of a small elite which has robbed enough for it. Golden exile is not an option for many of them anymore, but they have stashed enough to pay all the mercenaries they will need to pay to stay in Venezuela and enjoy the riches of life even though the people that placed them into office are starving and dying of unspeakable diseases that normal countries have eradicated. In short, they have become such criminals that they are beyond good and evil, they are amoral, pitiless.

Which brings us to the longevity of such regimes. Considering the continuous degradation of the standard of living, the equilibrium point is when Catia and Petare will get so hungry that they are the ones that will be starting the opposition marches instead of Prados del Este. The date? I do not know, they are not hungry enough yet, not enough of their children have died yet. But the time will come, probably sooner than expected. After all, let's not forget  that no matter how military like Padrino, the defense minister, are associated to the corruption of the regime, when they give the order to shoot to the troop this one may not follow: the troop will know why the people are protesting because, well, it is their parents and brothers, and cousins...

I will remind the patient reader that there are historical precedents where the troop refused to follow generals orders, and that was that. I see no reason for Venezuela to be any different, the more so that the troop did not enjoy the booty that their generals grabbed.

And they shall go to jail

I am not sure if people outside Venezuela truly measure how miserable it is to live here. However one thing is certain, the political situation makes it impossible for things to improve any time soon. Even more certain are the odds of things getting worse. The photo below is National Assembly chair Ramos Allup showing on TV the picture of the defense minister Padrino Lopez in bowed deference to Fidel. This is the clearest sign that the confrontation with the regime is reaching pitch fork level.

Why is this picture, which has widely circulated in the web months ago, back in front?

For this you need to come back to what this blog has gotten tired to repeat over and over: the regime cannot, CANNOT, leave office because this would mean that dozens if not hundreds of regime luminaries will find their way to trials and jail sentences, some as far as reaching The Hague tribunal (it is my opinion that, at the very least, Maduro's criminal actions against the well being of the Venezuelan population make him worthy of sitting at the accused bench of The Hague international court for human rights).

If you do not get this, or disagree with this, then you really have wasted your time reading this blog over the years.

The Games of Thrones played in real life here is as confusing as the fictional one, and probably many a political career would be demised as in the series, hopefully with not as much blood though I am now certain that some will be spilled..

To try to understand this let's start by the game played by the National Assembly. It's only weapon is legality, voting laws that bring answers to the plight of people. The process is long and tedious and exasperating not only to the radical minds inside the opposition but even to more rational spirits like a dear friend from overseas with whom I had a long talk yesterday.  It is indeed hard to keep cool in front of the onslaught suffered by the Assembly.

The regime indeed is annulling every law the Assembly passes. Even if the political cost for the regime may be high. For example we are waiting for the oncoming, announced, annulment of two laws. One is designed to allow quick and full ownership to those who got public housing in recent years. This is a No-No for the regime as that housing is sort of a grant that people can preserve as long as they support the regime. But denying such law goes against the human nature of even many hard core chavistas who, well, like any human being want their very own refuge...

More damaging still are the ridiculous pretension that the "bono alimentación" (kind of a food stamp system) for retired people is too expensive for the regime to accept. To which it was replied immediately that if there is money for weapons then there is money to help retirees living of a pension that is today at 40 USD a month (according to DICOM already in free fall since its creation weeks ago). The problem here is that the regime cannot permit under any circumstances to have the populace believe that they can get stuff outside of Chavez or his appointed heir. I suppose that in the regime mental construct the political price to screw the elderly is preferable to the political price of people starting to think that there is life after chavismo.

I pass on other laws annulled which are more abstract to the point made here. The objective of the regime is to annul the National Assembly. Since this cannot be done easily in front of the public opinion, and because the Assembly has two atomic bombs in reserve, the regime is proceeding to discuss nincompoopy proposals such as an amendment to bring down the Assembly term from 5 years to 60 days. Amen that such a constitutional amendement would have to be voted in a referendum (article 341) that the regime cannot win without massive and thus obvious fraud.

Or go the way of a mere coup and that is that.

Indeed the National Assembly has two bombs that are very dangerous to all, but more to the regime. One is the ability to call for a Constituent Assembly that if it proves effective could result in sweeping away all of the regime office holders (articles 348 and 349).

The other bomb is immediate: the regime is short on cash and the only way to borrow more dollars is to get a favorable vote from the Assembly (as a guarantee to the lender). This one will certainly give it IF AND ONLY IF the regime accounts for how the loan will be spent, monitored through a mechanism that will not be under regime control. Something that is totally unacceptable for an hyper corrupt regime. Will the regime pick bankruptcy? Coup? Negotiation?

I am going for coup even though no one will lend a dollar to the regime in such conditions. A coup would only result in utter misery for the people with the regime's hope to control the populace through control of food. A gamble that at least Maduro, Cabello and their close corrupt entourage are willing to take with the assumption that the army will help killing whatever needs to be killed through heavy repression.

Which brings us to the picture opening this entry.

I, for one, consider that Ramos Allup and the opposition have acted to the best of their abilities. There may be better ways to proceed but NO ONE so far as made the case that there is another strategy for the opposition to corner the regime until this one blows a fuse and close the Assembly, or collapses. Either way, many will have to go to jail...

The pressure over the regime has been gradual but continued and unfaltering. And at each time the regime has shown its dark nature. First the emergency economic decree was rejected but approved through yet another judicial coup. The the courts decided that the National Assembly did not have the right to call for hearings on public servants unless allowed by the regime. Then populists reforms are rejected at political cost for the regime. Then the amnesty Law is now under threat and if the regime rejects it it will result in a strongly welded opposition against the regime. On this last one we had the Defense Minister that chimed in as to his opinion that the Amnesty Law was bad. Not only this is not true, and not of his resort, but coming from someone who is linked to coup mongers that benefited in their time from an amnesty of sorts it is simply an indefensible position.

Ramos Allup thought that the time has come to put the armed forces in front of their duty. Showing the picture of an adoring minister of defense in front of a foreign potentate, publicly, on TV, simply questions the loyalty to the nation, to democracy, of the head of the armed forces.

The implications of this are so obvious that I will dispense the patient but smart reader from further explanations.

Only one comment to close this entry: Padrino Lopez today must regret not to have accepted the massive fraud that Cabello wanted to perpetrate on December 6. I will let you think on that too.

Tweet of the day

Last night I was writing about laws voted that displease chavismo. Here is the tweet of the National Assembly chair, Ramos Allup.

Bufete inconstitucional malandro reunido emergencia hasta madrugada preparando anular ley bcv y amnistía(ya aprobadas AN) y tsj aprobada 1a.

— Henry Ramos Allup (@hramosallup) March 30, 2016

The unconstitutional thug law firm gathered past midnight preparing the annulment of the central bank reform and amnesty law, as well as first draft of High court reform

Such is the rush of the TSJ that they cannot even pretend to follow normal legal decorum and in a rush they are trying to make up rulings that will make no sense, at least legally and constitutionally. But give an excuse to Maduro for propaganda.

The problem with that strategy for the regime is that it cannot keep annulling everything parliament sends its way. At some point the legal crisis will be such that the country will enter into utter paralysis as no one will sign any deal with the country, no matter what.
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Note: observe that the Chair of the National Assembly is calling the TSJ thugs (malandro, no exact translation but that is what it means, street thugs, without any racial connotation US style). The partiality of sides make it possible that Ramos Allup tweet raises hardly an eye brow. So low as fallen the political discourse in Venezuela....

Just imagine Obama calling Scalia a scoundrel, or Bush calling Bader Ginzburg a bitch. I thought so....

Onward the final constitutional crash: amnesty law and high court reform

The Easter lull came and went without making much of a difference.  The "calima" suffocated us in Caracas while the country went on a standstill to try to spare a few meters from the water gauge of the Guri dam, before El Niño, and regime's utter incompetence, forces a shut down of 50% of the country's electricity.

This is not Beijing, it is today over Caracas. You cannot even guess that there is a 2000 meter mountain range in the background. I have NEVER seen it that bad. The air stings slightly when you breathe.

Una foto publicada por daniel duquenal (@duquenal_at_vnv) el 21 de Mar de 2016 a la(s) 2:14 PDT

But the country is back at work, as much as it is possible, and the National Assembly has started the road to open confrontation not only with the executive, but on the true meaning of the Venezuelan constitution, as this one may be.


A few minutes ago the National Assembly voted the final version of the amnesty law which aims, among other things, to free political prisoners incarcerated in kangaroo courts. An amnesty is needed since there is no way to get a truly fair trial in Venezuela these days.

Aprobada en 2da discusión la #LeyDeAmnistia pic.twitter.com/2ztnDWC7aq

— María Corina Machado (@MariaCorinaYA) March 30, 2016

But this law, which intents is also the start of some form of national reconciliation by forcing every side to face the reality that justice is in the hands of the executive (even though this cannot be said in the law), is far from being applied and Leopoldo Lopez is not out of jail yet. Maduro's regime has announced that he will not sign the law, that it will not be applied. Presidential veto power is limited in Venezuela, at best a delaying tactic. Thus within days, with or without the signature of Maduro the law will become the law of the land. Maduro can only stop this law application if the high court TSJ rules it to be unconstitutional. This is certainly the case as the TSJ has always managed to find any "unconstitutional" way to make a given an unconstitutional one, even if the means used is itself unconstitutional. Repetition intended.

Which brings us to the second point of this entry: after the vote the national Assembly went straight ahead in the modification of the  laws describing how the  TSJ is designated.  The aim is to find a way to go around the latest crop of appointees who got their job through unconstitutional ways to allow for the pre-electoral packing of the court.  Yes, it is that naked but then again the TSJ submission to the regime is that naked: nobody remembers when was the last time that the state/regime lost a case in court.

In short, the regime is going to be placed in front of this dilemma: either accept the revision of the latest appointments so those can be made according to the original intent of the law, or accept an expansion of the TSJ members so that there is at least dissenting opinions. A dilemma the regime will refuse by declaring that legal reform unconstitutional, even though it will violate the very own regime jurisprudence that was itself a constitutional violation. This is how things work in Venezuela: several wrongs are required to improve the odds of making a right.

In a way it is irrelevant whether the regime will release Lopez from jail, or allow for a limited dissent at the TSJ. It is quite clear now that the regime faction aligned around Maduro and Cabello will go out of its way to avoid any move that could undermine its power and drive through regime change, a change that would find soon in jail Maduro, Cabello, Ramirez and scores of other corrupt and abusive office holders.

The regime has made it abundantly clear that it will not let the new National Assembly function as it should be. The TSJ has already gutted its control authority. It is finding a way to avoid votes on financial resources (which may be difficult at the Assembly has already stated that credits not approved by the Assembly do not put the state under the obligation of repaying them). More blockades to the Assembly are not obvious yet as its election is, after all, still recent. But the tone is set: the TSJ will provide what the regime cannot get through the Assembly.

Since the regime has embarked into such a course to void the National Assembly then this one has no choice but to face down the confrontation by voting on legal laws (redundancy intended) to dismantle the regime. Either the regime will have to back down or it will have to come up to terms with its own dark intentions and, well, proceed once and for all to the "autogolpe", self-inflicted-coup á la Fujimori once upon a time in Peru.

For the regime going all the way to a constitutional crisis is a gamble. Not only the Amnesty Law and the TSJ reform are politically unacceptable for the reduced chavista hard core, but more laws in the work (on recall elections and referenda) are even less acceptable. The political cost, here and abroad, maybe simply to high for the regime to pay. Times are changing, Obama visited Cuba, Argentina is gone and Kirchner is not able to make the opposition that some thought she would be able to do. In Brasil the corruption of Lula is now public knowledge. Talk of applying the democratic charter agaisnt Venezuela is now open talk. But what is worse for the regime is that there is no food nor medicine, and soon there will be no electricity besides providing homes with a very few hours a day, forget about energy for production. Amen of the political capital lost abroad: the regime has no political capital left to spend at home.

Common sense would make the regime start negotiating a political solution to start taking measures to avoid the nation's collapse. But it seems that Maduro et al are seeking actively such collapse as there last desperate gambit to retain power.

La politique du pire, they called it in the agonizing French Ancien Regime.

Karadzic para luminarias chavistas

Hoy nos enteramos que el serbiobosnio Radovan Karadzic ha sido sentenciado en la corte internacional de La Haya por crímenes de lesa humanidad y genocidio en las matanzas de Srebenica. La justicia tardo 20 años en llegar para los musulmanes de Bosnia, pero llegó. Amen que la sentencia coincide con una era de injustificada ira contra los musulmanes decentes por parte de gente como Trump y Cruz, o los políticos populistas de extrema derecha en Europa. Es justicia para los musulmanes de Bosnia que eran en esa época, posiblemente, los mas civilizados, los mas a tono con los valores de democracia hasta que un nacionalismo de corte fascista se empecino en destruirlos. Los crimines de Karadzic contribuyeron en algo al extremismo actual del islam radicalizado.


Pero más allá de la condena de Karadzic, sin querer hacer paralelos ridículos con la situación en Venezuela, buena es la ocasión para que algunos personeros del chavismo entiendan que crimines contra la humanidad no prescriben y que en algún momento la justicia llegará. No se puede robar tanto, arruinar tanto a un país, abusar tanto de su gente sin que en algún momento hable la justicia. Y si la justicia de Venezuela no habla, la de La Haya lo hará en su debido tiempo.

Todavía está a tiempo la jerarquía chavista de tomar los correctivos que sean necesarios para evitar que la justicia los condene a cadena perpetua como pasó hoy con Karadzic. Me conformo con listar abajo crimines potenciales o ya comprobados de algunos chavistas que deberían permitir entender la situación en la cual están, desde ya.

No voy a hablar de los narco traficantes de peso, casi todos militares, porque el volumen de tráfico de drogas por Venezuela solo fue posible por la aquiescencia del estamento militar. Para ellos ya hay cortes actuando. Pregúntenle a Carvajal que ya no podrá más nunca salir de Venezuela. Pregunten a los de la lista de Obama quienes según la miserable propaganda del régimen serian patriotas corderitos de dios, sin que nadie nos explique con veracidad como es que un vuelo de Air France cargo con centenares de kilos de cocaína, algo imposible sin fallas gravísimas de la seguridad de Maiquetia en manos de los militares.

Tampoco voy a hablar mucho de corrupción y de lavado de dinero. De eso también hay cortes pendientes. Preguntarle a Rincón en Houston a quien le fue negada la fianza porque se podía dar el lujo de perder los millones que tiene en EE.UU. ya que tiene aún más millones fuera de los EE.UU. Preguntarle al que está ya sentenciado por desfalcar a PDVSA por los ahorros de sus empleados. Y así muchos mas en la mira.

Los que vienen al caso son los que serán condenados por permitir, crear, impulsar una situación política que nos está conduciendo hacia una represión masiva, o a una guerra civil.

Por ejemplo tomemos a los jueces alcahuetas y corruptos del TSJ. Empecemos, hay que empezar en algún sitio, por Luisa Estela Morales, culpable de tantas violaciones constitucionales que permitieron establecer la actual dictadura. ¿No sabia ella lo que estaba haciendo? Recordemos que esa mujer tuvo la desfachatez de decir que la separación de poderes era un mal asunto. Sumemos los jueces ya huidos a EE.UU (¿dónde más?) y que han revelado diáfanamente la corrupción moral de la justicia en Venezuela. Agreguemos a jueces ya con prontuario policial y que apenas designados ya presiden la sala de casación penal, en un claro signo que la justicia será lo que decida el régimen, jueces que ya no tienen nada que perder y que por lo tanto se prestarán a firmar la sentencia que sea para permitir al régimen durar un día más. ¿Justicia y derechos?

Prosigamos por los aupadores de oficio, los que tienen una carrera política dedicada a crear divisiones, a amenazar a quien no comulgue con el régimen. Muchos hay allí pero tomemos dos en particular. Uno es un psiquiatra ya reconocido como psicópata y alcalde de Caracas. Otro que además de estar señalado en corrupción y narcotráfico también es el responsable de organizar agresión a diputados en el propio recinto de la Asamblea Nacional, llamar a la violencia y tener un programa televisivo done agrede verbalmente, difama, ataca y amenaza con toda impunidad. Gente como Rodríguez y Cabello ya tienen su puesto asegurado en la lista de los que tendrán que rendir cuenta más temprano que tarde.

Hablemos de los que por su empeño en ocultar su mala gestión están condenando el país a una posible hambruna, a un posible colapso epidemiológico. Si bien mala gestión se detecta hasta en los países mas desarrollados, lo que denota en Venezuela es la saña que agregan esos personeros a sus actuaciones. Tengo en mente ministros de Sanidad o alimentación.

Hablar de la violación de los derechos humanos seria ya tarea demasiado larga para esta entrada. Con solo mencionar la Lista de Tascón y la represión del 2014 ya tenemos con que enjuiciar a varios civiles y militares.

Hablando de militares el caso de Vladimir Padrino es interesante. Todavía no se puede decir si sus actos justificarían denunciarlo en La Haya. Pero de lo que si estamos seguro es que de apoyar la represión solicitada por el régimen el podría encabezar la lista con sobrados méritos. Otro veredicto de culpabilidad pocos días antes de el de Karadzic fue en contra del jefe militar congoles Bemba. Es notable que en este caso Bemba fue condenado a pesar de que el no estuvo presente en el lugar de los hechos. Solamente por mandar tropas a la República Centroafricana y desentenderse del potencial de violencia fue suficiente para condenarlo. Es notable también que Bemba fue arrestado cuando ya estaba en el exilio, demostrando que ganando o perdiendo el juego politico no ofrece protección alguna contra delitos que no prescriben. Así como Padrino hay muchos jerarcas del ejercito que deberían pensarlo un poco mas antes de seguir ordenes indebidas, que posiblemente ni siquiera vienen de nuestro pais.

Acortemos esta lista mencionando al que dirige al circo aunque no sea su dueño. Al rechazar la ayuda de la OMS frente a la crisis de salud de Venezuela el presidente Maduro ya se pone a pie de cruzar la línea entre la incompetencia criminal y el genocidio. Y no es lo único que ameritaría un juicio en contra de él que sin duda alguna resultaría en una sentencia de muchísimos años en alguna cárcel del mundo.

Sugiero que los que pueden hacer todavía algo para detener la marcha a la catástrofe, lo hagan. No tienen por qué pagar las culpas de estos irresponsables hundiendo al país tratando de salvar su vil pellejo. Los únicos que pueden hacer eso son la porción del PSUV que no quiere terminar de hundirse en la infamia para salvar a los que cometieron crimines que esos chavistas no tienen por qué pagar. Incluyamos los pocos militares que robaron poco y no se metieron en narcotráfico y que no desean mancharse de la sangre de la represión que se les va a pedir, sangre que no se puede lavar nunca de las manos. No nos olvidemos de los funcionarios públicos que todavía pueden renunciar estrepitosamente y hablar aunque sea desde el otro lado de la frontera. Todavía está en esos grupos la posibilidad de hacer algo para no entrar en las listas que se mandarán algún día hasta La Haya. Esperemos que traten de evitar un viaje a La Haya, aunque sea solo como testigos vergonzosos de la infamia.

Chiming on Brazil [file under "famous last words" section]

This one is short.


Anti Corruption justice is circling closer and closer to Brazil's ex president Lula and his designed and failed heir, Dilma Roussef. This one, to protect her mentor, has just named him minister. Such position in Brazil, unaccountably for, gives the holder some form of immunity and while s/he holds the office as s/he can only be investigated and prosecuted through the high court of the land.

This maneuver is of course and admission of guilt. Lula should face judicial proceedings like any citizen now that he is "retired" from politics. If he is innocent, the alleged "persecution" would make of him a martyr and push him back to office as if nothing. The hysterical part of it is that Lula is on record for having say that in Brazil when the poor steal they go to jail but when the rich steal they become ministers. In 1988. In 2016 he becomes minister.

#LULA
1998: "Los pobres van a la cárcel. A los ricos los nombran ministros"
2016: A Lula lo nombran ministro... pic.twitter.com/FuV9rYlJYN

— Efecto Naím (@EfectoNaim) 17 de marzo de 2016

You live by the sword, you die by the sword.

Goes to show you that the left in LatAm has turned out to be even more corrupt than the right. We know now why Lula was the great enabler of Chavez.

Chiming on US primaries

Every 4 years I write something about the US election for which I get a lot of flack, in particular from the right (you know who you are). But since I am used to it and since US election does affect Venezuela, I will go ahead any way (disclaimer: already in 2008 I was with Hillary, so there; keep reading at your own risk).

To say that the primary season this time around is dismal is not saying it all. Populism of the cheapest form is assailing both parties, and in one case, for now, winning. One could make the case that the slow recovery of the 2008 crisis, the wave of economic refugees everywhere, tribal politics, etc, should not have spared the US, albeit a nation of immigrants. But in the US, at least in the case of the Republican party, they had it coming.

I lived in the US when Clinton was president, and I never liked him; though I like Hillary, being well aware of her faults. But she is a policy wonk and she understand that one cannot get everything. That Clinton cheated on her certainly helped her realize that. There is no absolute for her and that is perhaps why people perceive this as sleaze (which does not mean she is exempt from sleaze too).

I remember how the republican party vilified Clinton. Going as far as to impeach him over a peccadillo. Anyone would have lied about being found out receiving blow jobs from Monica, let's face it. He should have been impeached for bad taste rather than being a liar, which all politicians need to be. Well, with Obama it got worse, tinged with such racism and xenophobia that the mind shudders.  How can you not expect that the guy who lead the "birthing" movement and the bigot one of the fundamentalist branch would not become the "leaders" of the Republican party?

I have known long ago that Marco Rubio was not going to change anything. After all I did receive a lot of flack when I complained that Rubio decided to question evolution and grant at least equality to creationism. As a scientist this was unacceptable for me, that a well educated politician would say such thing just to court electorate was simply not acceptable. True, Rubio had been a strong advocate for freedom in Venezuela but you cannot question science, 2+2 will always give 4. If you question the most objective of discourse we have how can I trust you when you will have to discuss the mine fields of subjective policies? If you do not like science then do not mention it in your speeches. It was a sign that Rubio was a weather vane trying to please everyone. And last Tuesday he not only he failed to carry his home state, but he lost it abysmally, probably ruining his political future. Too bad, it was the type of Republican who on paper I could have voted for him, but I had given up on him before Iowa.

Trump reminds me of Chavez and Marine Le Pen in France, except that Le Pen is far more knowledgeable on polices than the first two clowns. But all are histrionic politicians and unfortunately in an age where media is ONLY seeking headlines, they have a tremendous advantage. Such politicians attract red necks, white trash, low life, uneducated, low self esteem folks. And the ones with education that tag along do so because they know that they will be cashing in big time if their man/woman makes it to the top. such leaders have a very low follow up talent, always looking toward the next show they can lead. And thus they can only be bad managers of the res publicae.

The problem here is that the last anti Trump alternative, Ted Cruz, actually scares me more than Trump. First, his way of speaking, the way he unfolds his arguments is supremely irritating for me, rings truly false. That holier than thou is just unacceptable in a politician and, believe it or not, also reminds me of Chavez if he had gone to the UCAB in Venezuela for his college degree instead of the barracks. Ted Cruz love of the constitution as his, as HIS interpretation, makes him a plain reactionary, not a conservative.

Fortunately for us I think that any one of Trump or Cruz would be defeated by Hillary because neither one is really able to go beyond the White Male electorate. The Republican party has not learnt from its 2008 and 2012 failures. And that is pathetically shown again in the looming Supreme Court battle. That the republican leader McConnell is so willing to trample the constitution just because Obama has only 10 more months to serve is not only a confession of his bigotry and personal hate towards Obama but also of his rigid stupidity and intolerance. After all, he has the mean to not only delay, and delay, the process of confirmation but after all in the end the Senate could vote no. There is a Republican majority last time I checked. No? If this is one of the main leader of the GOP, what can you expect from the rest?

Once upon a time there were Republican Senators I could have voted for like Monyham, or Weicker, or Sarbanes but today.........

Unfortunately Hillary Clinton is looking more and more like a lesser Evil, and it is not me that says it: even our friends at right wing conservative take no prisoners Babalublog are facing down the option of having to vote for Hillary. Her rival Sanders makes her even more electable. After all Sanders is dragging with him an independent populist base who wants all for free, chavista style. Never mind that he refuses to condemn Castro and that Venezuela human rights violations are inexistant. Well, to be fair, for these people Venezuela does not exist. Hillary had no problem dispatching Sanders at the Florida debate over a Castro question which I am sure was the reason not of her victory but of her lopsided victory. She got the Cuban voters, Rubio did not although he certainly deserved it more than Hillary. The unfairness of it all.

So there we are, as I type it is more than likely that Hillary Clinton will be elected US president even though her own personal messy affairs could play bad tricks on her once in office. But then again, even with that baggage she is the better option. She knows what the business government is all about; her tenure at State and on the Senate was not bad, and certainly better than her potential rivals; she can think and does not run her mouth like Trump who is always selling something, himself preferably.

The real problem in all of this comes from the degradation of the American Political system. How is it possible that last year the two front runners were relatives of two living ex-presidents? When the Republic starts indulging in dynastic politics you know that it is in trouble. And that is that.

Back to the XIX century

Regular readers may remember that often I wrote that chavismo was a mere reactionary movement, harking back to an ideal time of macho caudillos and independence wars. That violence and poverty ruled over Venezuela from 1805 until Gomez established the first stable regime of our history is apparently not an historical fact that chavistas can be bothered with: all that is wrong in Venezuela comes exclusively from the 1958-98 period and the evil empire up North.

Well, chavismo should be delighted because we are getting back to these halcyon days of robber barons (cheap ones, not rich ones as in the US) and grinding poverty. Four items to frighten you.


No tests

My brother went to get his normal blood work before his annual date with his cardiologue. What was his surprise that this huge private clinic, very well known, could not test for hemoglobin (nor three other items of the 20 that include that test).

My SO, also this week, needs a test for the marker of his disease. I had to spend three hours to find finally a lab that could still perform that test.

I suppose that if there are no tests for diseases then there will be no disease and like in the XIX century we shall rely some herbal stuff for pretty much any ailment. I watched in horror the other day as a show on public TV had a kid vaunting herbal medicine saying it was a way for us to "free ourselves from the negative influence of the traditional scientific capitalist medicine".  There you go: got cancer, get a plaster of gamelote on your ulcer. Traditional science, whatever that moronic oxymoron may mean, is bogus, what our ancestors did more than a century ago is the way to go.

Robbing animal feed

As I have reported before the situation in battery raised livestock, representing 80% of the protein consumed of Venezuela is going down hill because the regime monopole on grain import and distribution is not working. Note: organic food is the privilege of the very, very rich in Venezuela. Well, now this scarcity is made worse by the increasing robberies in animal feed plants. A customer told me that there are gangs now that break in the storage aras of animal feed plants to steal vitamins, amino acids, antiobiotics, etc...  They can steal trucks of stuff and curiously, in spite of the multiple check points held by the Nazional Guard on all Venezuelan rodas, these trucks never seem to be inspected, and even less stopped. Imagine that!?

Thus we are back tot he XIX except that cattle stealing has been replaced by feed stealing, with the same impunity as before when the local caudillo helped himself to whatever it needed and that was that. The caudillos have been replaced by caudillos in military uniform as this type of robbery can only take place with support from the people inside the army, be it drug traffic or feed traffic. Needless to say that such robberies may cause feed plants to be stopped for days.  Too bad for the animals counting on that. And further scarcity on markets.

Squatters rights

Apparently now consejos comunales, that ersatz local power soviet invented by Chavez for political control and patronage, have the right to seize any property that they deem under occupied.

A friend of mine has a small week end farm in Carabobo. For a variety of reasons, insecurity being one, he has stopped visiting it with the frequency he used to. Still, he or a relative or someone goes at least once a month to aerate the house, pick up the garbage, etc so the place does not look abandoned. That is not enough, he has to sell it now because he has been informed that the local consejo comunal has an eye on it even though his neighbors are defending him, that he has all property rights, all taxes paid, etc. never mind that the neighbors are scared about what lumpen would the consejo install there, probably the real reason why they defend my friend against the consejo... Note that the existence of a consejo in an area by itself make property lose up to half its value in the area as a consejo can butt in on anything they want.

We are just back to the XIX century when a torn down village during one of our numerous civil wars was simply occupied by a group of people because, well, it was abandoned. That was no expropriation or agrarian reform, it was just a "look, there is no one there, let's move in" moment.

I would like to note that if the regime was indeed building ALL THE HOUSING it claims to be inaugurating, why would any consejo comunal have the need to steal somebody else property? But I suppose that I am digressing, that I do not understand that such things are done for the good of el pueblo.

Your local pig

When I was a child, and we went on the adventure tourism that Venezuela was then in the 60ies and 70ies, small villages had pigs used as garbage disposal units. That is right, villagers would bring their garbage to a dump at the outskirts and a couple of pigs would come regularly to forage. Eventually those pigs were killed and eaten or sold on the road side surrounded by a significant amount of flies. That was, well, the only source of meat sometimes. Fortunately by the 80ies animal farms and sanitary controls and distribution chains and refrigerated facilites had set and thus Venezuelans could buy fresh or frozen meats prepared with all the desired hygienic standards.

This is over. With food scarcity and creeping poverty not only backyard chickens are back but your foraging pig is making a return. Well, not quite as the pig can now be stolen so you better lock it up....  So in the country side some are now having a pig or two in their back yards.

Why would that be wrong, you may ask? Well, the veterinarian and health official support for such activity does not exist anymore in Venezuela. That is, the pigs raised this way will have no veterinary supervision even if the owner could afford it anyway. And there is very little medicine available for livestock, by the way.

That new backyard livestock activity increases dramatically the probability to revive parasitic diseases due to the proximity of animals, without counting on well known plagues like the flu associated with apartment raising chickens in China.

There also we are enjoying a return of the halcyon unsanitary days of yesteryear.

That is chavista progress for you.

Tumeremo

The story that has been unfolding in the mining region of Bolivar state is yet a new low for the bolivarian regime. all corruptions, all abuses, all cruelty seem to have somehow managed to meet there.

I am not going to go into details. the executive summary is as follow.

Legal mining in Bolivar state has been progressively edged out under Chavez. What should have been organized gold search production ended up as illegal mining controlled by mafias and protected by the corrupt military of the area (who among other business controlled supply, gas contraband, etc.). And possibly Colombian guerrilla in Amazonas state.

The result has been what could one expect, and worse.

First, the are has become an ecological disaster as once pristine rivers straight out of the jungle where only a handful of natives lived are now containing mercury. The deforestation over a soil which has a difficult regeneration because it is a thin narrow layer of biomass (old ancient rock hard terrain) has been denounced repeatedly without any response form the authorities while the regime promoted its ecological brand, supported by many idiots in Europe and the US. Amen of the damage to the terrain itself through reckless wash out without any attempt as consolidation of the remains. Even the great national park that contains the highest water fall of the world is under threat.

Second, the human cost has been terrible. Never mention the garimpeiros coming from Brazil. Let's just focus on what has become a mere form of XXI century indented labor of all of these people forced to purchase supplies from military/gangs approved suppliers. It has been years since the locals and the Native Americans have been protesting, sometimes very actively. But no matter what may have been agreed the army went back to all its associations with thugs for their common racketeering business.

So, it thus came to pass. As the level of oil went down, so went down miscellaneous subsidies and so went down revenues from the illegal mining area.  Gang wars got worse and last week relatives reported the disparation of 28 miners, yet to be found. But tales of massacre by some survivors are now vox populi. The regime through its governor delayed quite a lot in accepting that there was a problem even going as far as saying that it was yet another media manipulation, even though the relatives were blocking in anger the main road to the South of the country.

The political problem here is that beyond the almost certain fact the the gang of El Topo did the deed, the ultimate guilt rests squarely at the feet of the Venezuelan Army for allowing all that traffic and to the feet of Bolivar governor, former military pal of Chavez, Rangel Gomez.

So, since this is now a political problem the regime has done what it knows best, condemn in another kangaroo trial the editor owner of the lone opposition paper of the area, Correo del Caroni, which has been following closely all the violence and corruption in the state. It is noteworthy that the trial had been dormant for months and suddenly in a couple of days it was revived and a sentence emitted against the paper in the middle of the night. Note that the people suing the paper for defamation, even though they actually served jail for corruption, are not linked to the mining violence. As it is always the case in Venezuela against the press a case is held languishing until the regime needs a favorable verdict at a given time.

That is why I wrote at the beginning of this blog entry that the mining situation in Bolivar is a microcosm of all that is wrong in Venezuela, from thug gang wars to extortion, from freedom of expression to an official lies system, from corruption to approved genocide.  Human rights violations in Bolivar may be the worse in Venezuela, and that is already saying something.

I cite a verse of French poet Aragon

[Tumeremo]
Là-bas où le destin de notre siècle saigne
(over there where our century's fate bleeds)

Mid March, and the march to abyss continues

Regular readers might be wondering about the sparse recent posting compared to the flurry early this year. Many reasons but it is not the point. Time to update things a little

Cruelty of the regime

My personal experience last week should make it clear that no one can escape the trained violence that the regime has sponsored, trained by Cubans, of course, as it has not been in the nature of Venezuelans whose earlier dictators would rather dispatch people and only torture for information, never for sport as it has become the case here, in particular since 2014 under Maduro (who hopefully will meet the fate that escaped Chavez, to sit in an international court of justice for crimes against humanity). If a simple particular, out of nowhere, can experience such psychological violence I wonder what people from Lopez to Afiuni have truly experienced. Even, if it were possible, more respect from me now.

But the cruelty is not only there, it reaches genocidal levels with the refusal of the regime to face down the health care crisis, one that could not be solved fast but could be attenuated fast with very simple measures, if the regime decided to try to steal a little bit less than what they are doing. When I hear Sanders at this point in time vaunting the Cuban health care system, in ruin and that ruined the Venezuelan one, I can only be aghast and and say that I feel the burn. How can a US presidential candidate with real aspirations can be so ill informed?

Corruption keeps apace

These past couple of weeks my business has been confronted with two direct extortion attempts by public officials that have become mere racketeers. One succeeded because we had no choice. We are tired to receive the visit of "brokers" which are people that miraculously have access to dollars and can import what we cannot do.  But at DollarToday rates. However they do offer a valid bill of purchase so we can put the goods into our accounting. If we were importing them on our own, without going through the currency exchange of control, the USD bill would be recognized at 10, not at 1100 as DolarToday has it. Imagine the taxes we would pay that way.

Meanwhile, of course, the barrening process of grocery store shelves keeps apace. Not even my blackmarteers can provide me with what I need, even at a ten fold increase of the official legal price.

Meanwhile the devaluation of a few weeks ago has already failed. Far from calming the country the black market rate registered a further 10% loss since the devaluation. So there.

The National Assembly under siege, literally

Videos show how chavista colectivos can post graffiti over the hallowed walls of parliament under the eyes of the Nazional Guard that remains nearly motionless.  The chavista whip takes to the barricades to ask paid for chavista "supporters" to storm the Assembly to which he was elected.

These are just a sign of the times, as judicial decision after judicial decision the regime is starting to rule through the high court, TSJ. But even that will not be enough soon. The Assembly spokesperson has said that any new debt secured without passing through the National Assembly risks not been recognized by a future government. Can the TSJ get the country into more debt as if nothing? Will someone be stupid enough to trust their money to these TSJ/Maduro racketeers? Me thinks not. Thus the regime will have to find a permanent way to neutralize once and for all the Assembly.

The Assembly tries what it can

Even though people disagree with the way the Assembly is proceeding, I beg to differ. First, I do not think it can do more than what it does now. Differently perhaps, but more I doubt. Second it has exposed clearly that if the crisis continues, and even worsens, it is because the regime is refusing to discuss ANYTHING. Compromise with these people is, well, impossible. Surprise!

So the Assembly has decided in earnest to do the last thing it can do : to take out Maduro. A multi pronged approach is necessary since the regime is already putting obstacles to any electoral test that they know they will lose. And the TSJ will, of course, annule anything they want because a comma is not exactly where it should be, even though their own sentences are usually ill written. Something that a ridiculous journalist, from Time no less, qualifies with the worst humor possible as a peaceful coup . As I was commenting, too many journalists still see Venezuela as a reality show.....

At any rate the Assembly has decided to try to oust Maduro in all possible ways: recall election, constitutional amendment, street protest and the ultimate nuke, constitutional assembly. It will fail of course because the regime CANNOT surrender power because they know what their fate will be: jail. They will sabotage, repress, annul even basic common sense. But something will get started and people will be hungry. And international narco justice and money laundering cannot be avoided for ever. All is thus possible. The question is when.

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There you have, a summary of the 4 posts I should have been writing if I had time on my hands.