Dialogue-schmuckalogue

Today finally the first face off between the regime and the opposition under Vatican and Unasur guidance was held. Allow me to be deeply pessimistic about the prospects by just looking at the first picture.

What is wrong with that picture? Or if you prefer, what could possibly go wrong when the first scene of that movie is the one above?

Maduro IS PRESIDING!!!!!!!!! And far removed from anyone else!!!!!!

Symbols matter. Even more so when dialogue to avert civil wars are undertaken.

Here we have the guy who is the psychological focus of all that has been going wrong since Chavez died, and he is presiding? How could the opposition accept to sit down with Maduro? One thing is to try to dialogue with Maduro's people, another is to discuss under his direct oversight. At a moment when Maduro is cornered and totally done overseas, such a picture gives him a new legitimacy at home. The more so that only state TV is showing news on the scene, and manipulating the whole thing at will.

I am haggardly in shock. Well, until I found my way to this key board anyway.

7 ways to tell if a strike is a success

Today the opposition has called for a work stop for individuals. The regime is in full propaganda mode to claim that the move is a failure. The opposition claims it is a success. So here are 7 items to figure out whether it was a success

1- It is NOT a strike, nor a lock out. What the opposition did was to ask folks to stay put at home between 6 AM and 6 PM.


2- Whether a strike or a lock out or a stay-put, one fact is that it was called on Wednesday for Friday, not even 48 hours before it was supposed to start. A general movement of this nature is not easy to start, and it certainly require preparations so that adverse propaganda will be reduced to a minimum. In France where strikes are too regular an occurrence and where employees are highly trained at such activities, they are rarely called with less than a week notice.

3- You need to understand that the regime has used threats that it often brings to fruition. Never mind that fascist piglets like Diosdado Cabello have said they will seize whatever closes. So public employees will mostly show up for work. And many vulnerable stores/business will not close. To give you an example, my office is next to a small shopping center and this morning the NAZI-onal guard accompanied some agency to take pictures of the stores that did not open. (ADDED LATER: they made another inspection round at lunch time!)

4- Some business simply cannot close because the regime has long decided that certain sectors of the economy are of "public interest" and thus cannot do as they please. For example, all business dealing with food production or selling groceries or banks cannot close because, well, you know what will happen.

5- In addition business that work with perishables (agriculture, livestock, and the like) simply cannot stop. Period. The best they can do is to close the administrative offices but production cannot close, not even on Christmas day.

6- Other folks cannot close, like Emergency Rooms, hospital care for people that got surgery that week, etc...

7- And there is the nature of the Venezuelan. Many of us will do what they do everyday regardless of what happens outside. The bubble in which many live is truly astounding. Never mind those who say "heck, I am not working but it is a good opportunity for social visits, exercise, whatever" not realizing that their cars will be counted as activity.

So there you are, weigh carefully these parameters before you succomb to regime propaganda.

My take?  The more strident the propaganda the more successful the stay-put. That gauge never fails.

As far as I can tell it is more of a success than what I thought it would be. Heck, even people like me thought it was an error to call such actions so soon!

The splendors of well aged chavismo

Thus we are in the middle of a social, economic and, thus, political crisis of major proportions. The regime assuredly thinks about what to do to counter an opposition that has been setting up the agenda for quite a while now. After a massive brain storm they come up with a minimum wage increase of 40% . I think, I cannot even be bothered to check whether it is 40 or X: it makes no difference.

So chavismo is recurring to the LONE policy it knows: throw good money after bad. Even if now it needs to print it.

OK, I could still deal with that. But what I cannot wrap my mind around is that the regime calls it a major success to raise wages artificially for the fourth time in one year. Never mind that the wage increase may be no more than a fourth of inflation, tanking any purchasing power at any pay scale...

Of course, I have heard today employees happy about the increase. Note, I heard more of them bitch that it is not enough and will solve nothing. But the point is that after two years of massive inflation  and food shortages you can still find people that cannot see economical connections between the way the economy is run and their wallet problems.

While we are at it, they probably do not see connections between expropriation of private business and shortages.  Which explains why the outlaw of Diosdado Cabello threatened to take over any idle business tomorrow. That works right into the chavista mind set that inflation and shortages are nothing but a conspiracy. Which also explains why tonight we had state security in front of POLAR's Lorenzo Mendoza office, and home, waiting for him.  Probably they finally decided to torture him so he reveals where 2 years of food for 30 million of Venezuelans is hidden. Maybe in his basement.

We are a country of idiots, them for  believing such crap and me for not going postal.

The rebellion has started

What else could the regime expect today after the annulation of all elections? Or is is it what the regime hoped for? And will it still be of any use for the regime this late a confrontation?

A fraction of the river of people in Caracas today October 27 2016

What has happened today is transcendent, on many aspects.


The causes are the naked abuse of the regime which has refused to recognize the duly elected majority of the National Assembly. A regime that has refused to recognize the constitutional right to call for a a recall election. A regime that has suspended all elections until they decide to hold them again, someday, when conditions are good for them. A regime that has decided to assault the national assembly. And of course, most importantly, a regime that has left its population with not enough food, not enough medicine and not enough money to buy from the little that is left to find.

In not even 48 hours the opposition managed to organize spontaneously what is probably the largest NATION WIDE protest ever in our history. If the Caracas one was not as large than the one on September, it remains quite impressive as per the picture above in front of the military base of La Carlota, without even bothering to ask for permission tot he regime. Think about that for a second. The opposition simply called it and people came. What makes the day noteworthy is that in many cities of the countries huge opposition rallies materialized at the same time, resulting in a major show of strength for the opposition, duly noted even on French TV tonight.

The only thing chavismo could manage was a handful of  "supporter" public employees at the gate of Miraflores. They did not even tried to have some thing significant, they knew that they would not be able to fill up the buses with enough people to carry, no matter how much pressure and/or cash to attend they would provide.

However what they did was to repress. Not in Caracas, mind you, where all eyes are, but inside the country where they think that the world watches less and where they assume that people can be sacred easier to get back in line. We had dozens of arrests and injuries during the day, with an extremely worrying high rate of rubber bullets shot in the face of people, as close to the eyes as possible. A vicious attack, without doubt inspired by the fascist ways of repression the regime imported from Cuba.

The results of all of this are varied and not encouraging.

The first victim is the carelessly dialogue called by the Vatican next Sunday, a clumsiness that surprises everyone. Then again the US and the Vatican have always had in mind solving the Cuban situation thorough Venezuelan pockets never caring much for the fate of the Venezuelan opposition. It will remain one of the biggest failure of US or Vatican diplomacy, to underestimate the level of despair AND resolve of the Venezuelan opposition, a mistake that could cost Obama's"legacy" a big chunk. Never mind Francis himself though he still can recover better than the US.

The second result is that the regime has got in overdrive, invoking article 323 of the constitution, a preamble of sorts to suspend the constitution altogether. Except that ironically the decisions taken out of 323 have a validity only if the chair of the national assembly signs them. Not that it matters much for the regime, of course. But that seems a little paltry after all the other violations of the Constitution by the regime that justify in full all that the National Assembly has decided to undertake. These are also in agreement with the constitution, and include removing illegally appointed justices and electoral board, citing Maduro for investigation on many issues, etc...

The third result may be the most momentous. After today's true show of strength that not even the regime propaganda is taking down with its usual cynicism, the opposition has called for a general strike on Friday and a march on Miraflores Palace on November 3. That is, either the regime decides to give concrete and real responses NOW or the insurrection not only will start but probably could not be controlled by the opposition.

I wrote, and many others, that the regime sought violence as a way to sustain its power. Hence so many provocations. But violence is not necessarily the solution for the regime if it did not happen at the right time. Now, with a long suffering country, the violence that the regime is unleashing seem to scare many of them actually, as a demon that they are not sure they can control to their advantage. In 2014 it worked and gave the regime two more years but this time around conditions are different.

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What follows below does not quite belong tot he the stream of the text above. call it additional info.

First it was my own attendance to the march rally in the picture above.  There is my two videos on Instagram

I was there, the first day of the open resistance against the now dictator Maduro. We did what we should have some for quite a while already: block Caracas by taking over the major thoroughway.

A video posted by daniel duquenal (@duquenal_at_vnv) on Oct 26, 2016 at 1:24pm PDT

The second one is a flag sales guy. What is remarkable is that he was openly selling 7 star flags, those of the pre Chavez era. Quite a symbol that those are now the flags made and sold at marches....

The return of the 7 ✴ The opposition feeling is so strong that they making again the pre Chavez 7 star flag and peddling loud it at marches!

A video posted by daniel duquenal (@duquenal_at_vnv) on Oct 26, 2016 at 1:15pm PDT

This was one of the marches across Venezuela. This one from Barquisimeto.

Aquí en Barquisimeto,las calles no fueron suficientes para toda la cantidad de ciudadanos q salimos a marchar pic.twitter.com/HVcg0Ex0YC

— lorena perata (@lorenaperata) 26 de octubre de 2016

And a couple of videos on today's repression. You can clearly see how the police was facilitating the chavista storm troopers actions. Observe when the masked aggressor points at the window of the movie takers. Fascism. The real stuff.

@trafficTACHIRA @traffiCARACAS como se unen los policías + tupamaros para reprimir pic.twitter.com/rKewRGa2Es

— norelis garcia (@norelisgarcia4) 26 de octubre de 2016

La Policia del Estado no les basta con reprimir al pueblo sino además descaradamente protegen a los malandros del gobierno #Mérida pic.twitter.com/OYD3drZUk6

— Carlos García (@CarlosGarc1a) 26 de octubre de 2016

And to finish all, in case you doubt how angry Venezuelans are becoming at the regime...

Mujeres tachirenses impidiendo q efectivos militares disolvieran protesta cerca del CNE San Cristòbal. #LaTomaDeVenezuela #Táchira pic.twitter.com/1yJ4molZJS

— Luz Dary Depablos (@luzdarydepablos) 26 de octubre de 2016

Our Reichstag moment

It never ends well when a group uses its hordes to take a properly elected assembly (reichstag, French revolution) pic.twitter.com/EadEBmJEvn

— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) 23 de octubre de 2016

This is the tropics, this is a banana republic. What else could one expect but the picture above which should be making a few international front pages tonight.


The assault was planned as a mob scene. There is even an intercepted audio that may suggest active military involvement, instead of guaranteeing the security of a special Sunday National Assembly session. Whatever it was, it had no spontaneity whatsoever. It was a group coming from "colectivos" which are nothing more than a cross between S.S. and Cuban "comités de defensa de la revolución". The whole led by Caracas mayor, Jorge Rodriguez, who managed to look more the dissociated psychopath than ever. There is an actual doubt as to whether he was running the show. It is probable that at some level he realized that the regime did not need further discredit this week... Then again....

At any rate, eventually the National Assembly managed to vote a resolution and it is a a red line. Crossed by the regime, by the way. Using the article 333 of the constitution (the 350 for outright rebellion is reserved for soon enough, I suppose) the National Assembly has decided that Maduro has perpetrated a coup and thus the Assembly needs to do the following:
- Demand that international organizations take notice and apply the necessary sanctions
- That Maduro should be brought for trial in front of the Assembly for the constitution violations and his own questioned right to be president
- Renew all the powers that helped Maduro commit the coup, namely the electoral Board CNE and the constitutional court TSJ
- Demand that the army, once and for all, decides which side of the constitution they stand

So now the regime has either to close down the National Assembly, or Maduro needs to resign, or, as the Church has apparently suggested, everybody resigns and we vote on EVERY elected official.

My bet is on the first one.
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SIDE NOTES

1- For the records, even Venezuelan dictatorships did not dare to assault Congress the way colectivos did today. The last time something like that happened in Venezuela was on January 28 1848 when Monagas, an ELECTED constitutional president, decided to do without an opposition and sent a mob to Congress.

2- For some obscure reason I counted at least two rainbow flags in the mob. It is of course possible that the lumpen colectivos confuse such flag with the multicolored flag used by the Bolivian natives in their rallies and feasts (and own revolutions).  But I think the gay theme applies. Now, besides the fact that these people do not represent me whatsoever, nor I am willing to bet the immense majority of gay people in Venezuela, I cannot fathom how can they, at this point, support the Chavez regime. Under that regime Venezuela has become a most backward place in our continent. Not only the 1999 did not write in the gay marriage but this one has been approved by many countries since while the regime sat on it.  There is no real legislation against hate crimes. There is no rights for spouses (I can vouch for the difficulties that this causes with my partner disease). HIV medication has become scarce and new treatments available anywhere are not making it to Venezuela. And of course, there is constant homophobic language of the regime.

And yet, there was that guy waving the rainbow flag in a hallway of the National Assembly. Goes to tell you how easy it is to make idiotic through propaganda the defenseless poor lumpen, going beyond the Stockholm syndrome.

In today's assembly assault there was that supporter of regime that has refused gay marriage, does not pursue hate crimes, denies HIV drugs pic.twitter.com/xN0W0pp0q1

— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) 23 de octubre de 2016

PS: looking closely at the flags they do not ring quite like the rainbow flag. There may have been the identification flag of a given colectivo?. I am floating this in case some body has information. At any rate, these are poorly executed flags and Venezuelan gay people should not allow idiots use our symbols for such objectives as killing democracy.

Recall Election gone. So what?

I suppose I should write about the annulation of the Recall Election.  I had guessed long ago that it would not happen. The intensity of the dislike toward Maduro is so strong, even among chavistas, that the regime could not allow CNN document the huge lines that would have formed for three days this week.  They had no stomach for that, it was better to use an idiotic legal sophistry and send it all ad patres.

To concur with the prevalent head line this week end that Venezuela is officially a dictatorship is an hypocrisy. I have long said it so and I am actually upset at some people having trying to avoid the D world finally pouting it. As if annulling the Recall Election was more despicable than, say, having political prisoners, forcing those freed into exile, stealing the budget of the nation, and more,

I will just comment on how ridiculous the pretext to kill the Recall Election was. In short, a sub judge in Podunk decided that the CNE had not done its job to vet all the signatures for the 1% collection to start the process. The ridicule, of declaring themselves incompetent through their beloved electoral ministry, CNE, is something they cannot worry about anymore. The obsessive objective is to never leave office. All considerations be dammed.

That is all that there is to it.

Now what?

So? Can we all agree on the D word?

This is kind of a melancholy post. For years now I have been calling this a dictatorship. It took sometime to start seeing it expressed in the foreign press. And even as I type there are some in Venezuela or overseas (I am looking at you, Zapatero just for today's denialist) that still refuse to use the D word, expecting who knows what leniency from who knows where.


For me the D word applies since Chavez closed Radio Caracas in 2007. Or if you want a more material date you can use early 2013 when the constitutional coup of the moment allowed Maduro to become Chavez successor. And many other moments you may prefer. It really does not matter much, the dictatorial nature of the regime has been obvious from the start, from the very first social program of Chavez "Plan Bolivar 2000" that established the Venezuelan army as a discretionary manager of public money, and thus corruption.

I remember it all. Try me.

This year the dictatorship has been forced to become more frontal, more classical. Until this year the excuse that Venezuela was an autocratic regime and not a dictatorship was that the opposition did manage some electoral victories, that there were still an opposition paper here and there, albeit on trial. Etc. But all those were mere excuses. For the left there was no way that the beloved populist could have generated such a monstrously corrupt and inefficient system.  For the right it was that declaring Venezuela to be a dictatorship would mean taking action for which democrats seem to have lost the taste for, and for quite a while now. The last outrage and successful international take, if I remember well, was against Fujimori who in my book is not any worse than Chavez, and certainly less calamitous for the general welfare of the people. Honduras and Paraguay were mere side shows where the changes eventually prevailed because, well, these changes had a true legal foundation.

But never was Chavez to be sternly criticized until Argentina's Macri made it to office. And yet, with more bark than bite so far.

But now things have become unacceptable and Venezuela is preparing to be suspended from Mercosur in a little bit more than a month while the OAS may suddenly decided to make a concrete Democratic Chart application. Only Erdogan receives Maduro.

Since last December the regime has proceded to the following:
*Using the judicial power to block almost all actions from the National Assembly
*Rule through a state of emergency system bypassing any legal control
*Go through a wave of arrestations and creation of political prisoners without any legal supervision, with "evidence" planted directly by the people performing the arrest
*Sue the last two remaining national daily papers
*Block any control activity that the National Assembly has in the constitution
*Suspend any election, going as far as saying that elections were not an important right
*Dispose of national assets to find fresh cash
*Decree that all remaining private companies must sell 50% of their production to the government
*Etc...... including heavy intelligence insulting propaganda to pretend that all is fine and dandy in Venezuela

But the latest was in my opinion a fatal mistake for the regime. Maduro decided that the National Budget would be approved by decree law, with the support of course of the Judicial Constitutional Court. Now, I am not going to go into the unconstitutional and illegal ways in which the regime decides taxation and how it disposes of the funds through appointed folks.Trust me, the case is clear against the regime.

Since "No taxation without representation", and we know how that ended, it has been the rule in any and every democracy that the budget must be validated by a parliament. Even if that parliament is elected under fraud, but there must be a Parliament Act. Why is such a parliamentary act a requirement? Because it is the contract symbol that the state is the guarantor of the money lent or borrowed. Failure to do such an act means simply that the only responsible party is the guy in charge and that his mere death slipping at night in the bathtub is enough to question whether his successor has any obligation in fulfilling previous commitments.

In short, if you lend money to the Venezuelan government as of today, you have zero guarantee, LEGAL guarantee, that you will ever be paid back (that we are broke and unable to pay our debt is another story, but I digress). And considering that the guy in charge, Maduro, is an ass, with a shaky hold at best, I wonder who will bail the country out...

There are two implications here.

First, obviously, that taking over discretionary disposition of all the nation's income is the most naked act of dictatorship a regime can do. Never mind that in the same ceremony where the "budget" was signed Maduro already decided that he would not give money to any opposition district which by law he is forced to do, even if he has way to deliver less than the survival requirements of such districts. Thus now we are free from having to discuss over and over the dictatorial nature of the regime. All understand money, all understand that Maduro has officially privatized the budget. Even commies understand that.

The second consideration is that we are in big trouble. If the regime has resorted to such an extreme move it is because it feels that its end is near, that too many inside the regime are about to meet their legal destiny in some court. Since it has been proven amply that the regime could not care less about the welfare of the people (starvation cases, distressing lack of heath care for which I can personally vouch for as my SO has been left without chemotherapeutic without the possibility of legally buy it overseas) then it has been easy for them to take the final decision.

By privatizing the national budget the regime grabs directly whatever is left of the country resources to use them to support Cuba and the repression machinery needed to remain in office. That is right, there is not enough money for the rest, it will all be used to sustain the repression and ensuring a minimum of popular support to be able to recruit enough of those that will do that repression. I will note that the forced sale of 50% of production (that will probably not be paid on time, if at all, and after having lost all relevant value due to inflation) represents about what the regime can physically manage in that legal robbery handling, and what it needs roughly for its CLAP distribution system (who not surprisingly in the beggarly nature of chavismo support has allowed Maduro to get back to 30% in polls). Never mind that by forcing such sale the regime acknowledges that all the expropriations made under Chavez have only yielded a cemetery of once food producing businesses.

So there it is, the regime has played its last card.

The regime could not possibly care less about what the fate of the country and its people may be. There is no other card to be played, there is no expropriation that can be done which can satisfy the needs of the people, unless looting of homes is next. Expropriation of banks is useless when inflation is scheduled to be 4 digits next year. Nothing left for populism, not even borrowing as no one will be foolish enough to lend a penny to the the regime now. All has been wasted. There is only the little bit of food produced by the private sector and a worthless budget which can at least pay for the criminals that are needed for public order.

UPDATED Asking for help in getting medical assistance

UPDATE: this entry will remain on top for the time being and be updated as needed. Poltical ones below as they appear.
#1 update

Since many people have asked many questions I will answer the general ones here and individual ones as time allows. But my gratitude is all the same.

MONEY: I am not asking for money. Asking for money is a sign of failure for me. I know, it is stupid in a time where so many people ask for so many stupid things, but I try to preserve my pride as long as I can.
The time I would ask for money would be if I need to travel suddenly as good prices are not possible when you travel on short notice. I prefer to keep my savings for the care of my spouse. I will let you know when the time arrives if I cannot find a decent deal. And in that case I would limit myself to the extra expenses. Meanwhile I thank very much those who offered and you are on notice :-)

SOURCES of medicine: This is the toughest to resolve. There is one in particular we need and I do not want to put it publicly. The company that makes it in the US so far has not been forthcoming but there are still ways to reach them. Meanwhile we are trying it from France, the USA or Colombia as the countries where I can travel the easiest if I need to do so.
If by any chance you are a doctor in your country, or you have contacts to cancer treatments only delivered through hospital pharmacies, let me know. For more common medicines, the ones delivered through normal pharmacies through normal prescriptions, I can get them from France already.

-----------------------------------
I know this blog used to have personnel from the US foreign service reading it. These days it may not be the case but I need to try. Besides, other people reading may be able to help, even if not from  the US.

The situation  is that there is no more treatment available in Venezuela for the cancer of my life partner. And there will not be as long as Maduro remains president (or anyone sponsored by the regime). It is abundantly clear that the regime will not spend money on health care anymore besides aspirin and a couple of basic antibiotics. High cost medicine is simply not in the regime's agenda anymore. It has become a genocidal line at this point.

That would not be so bad if the regime allowed people to fend for themselves. But we are not allowed. Not only we have no access to USD, but even for those of us with some savings outside, it is difficult to ensure supplies unless we travel ourselves overseas. Under the pretext of fighting drug trafficking all couriers with pills are confiscated  (though surely those destined to higher up in the regime must manage some exceptions).

But there is an additional problem that was unexpected by us: many of the treatments for cancer are controlled medicines that are delivered only through hospitals, or extreme controls. I am finding that no matter what, manufacturers do not want anything to do with Venezuela, or demand that the patient be treated in the US. Which is nearly impossible without international health insurance that are, anyway, unavailable now in Venezuela.

Beyond the cost of the medicine we seek, which we could afford for a few months, the real problem is finding ways for it to be sold to us. Things we would need is support from the embassy in Caracas, be it from the US or other countries. Or perhaps support from an NGO in getting it. Or an adventurous MD who understands what we are going through and can maneuver the obtention of hospital controlled medications. My partner cannot travel but I can.

In other words anyone, or organization, that can vouch for the Venezuelan situation, that can report our case as a humanitarian situation can write privately to me to see how we can manage. No costs will be incurred to this generous soul as I have some savings that can tie us through for a few months. Though if some folks can help us purchase the medications, we would be immensely grateful since there are many more expenses we must tend to. But again, this is not a plea for cash, it is a plea for paperwork help in sorting the obstacles to obtain medications.

My address is danielinyaracuy(@)gmail(.)com , extra characters inserted for spam protection but you know how to remove them.

Since 2003 I have never asked for help, nor received any payment for this blog which in it's heyday was one of the main sources of information about the truth on Venezuela, at my personal al risk, by the way. Now I am begging readers to help me.

The happy-go-lucky dictatorial news of the day

So the regime of Nicolas Maduro has a problem: how to pass the 2017 national budget controlled by the opposition held National Assembly? Really, if we cannot loot in peace, what good is the revolution for!?


So very simple! Since there is a conflict between the National Assembly, NA, and the judicial power, TSJ, that this one annuls 99% of whatever the National Assembly does, we just will decree next year budget and that is that. After all, the budget is against the alleged "guera economica" whatever that means. Il suffisait d'y penser!

Maduro sent today a letter to the TSJ for "consultation". Guess what the result will be?

But the NA has a trump card, if it is willing to play it. Since the regime will require much extra additional debt, the NA just need to say that a budget passed without its approval does not engage the state in paying future debts contracted on such budget. Let's see who is going to lend Maduro money under such terms.

Meanwhile you can see yet another example on how dictatorships work. Books will be written.

A ¡NO! for reason

I have read so many idiots in the last three hours that I am forced to write about the Colombien plebiscite of today. Never mind that it will also have consequences for Venezuela.

When you go on vacation to Cartagena and think you
have been whitewashed by your travel agent

I heard "Brexit again! Trump next!"
I read the NYT being shocked
I see people wondering how could Colombians be so stupid, ungrateful, war loving folks!?

So let´s bring some of that hubris down, shall we?

First, the idiots doing amalgam. Today's vote in Colombian is not remotely close to the conditions of Brexit or Trump. Colombia is a, partially, warn torn country where everyone knows first or second hand the consequences of decades of a FARC guerrilla cum narko organization. Most people who voted in Colombia knew full well what they were voting for even if using the same facts led to different choices. With Brexit and Trump we have people that do not have enough problems in their real lives and are thus looking for new ones.


Second, the shock of the NYT and many other pundits lulled into quite a lot of confidence of a SI result in a country notoriously wrong in its polling folks. Does anyone remember how Antanas Mockus was a shoo in against Santos 6 years ago? But even if we assume that polls are better in Colombia than what some past mistakes may want you to think, the "shock" reflects also an inexcusable ignorance about what moves people in Colombia. Here in Venezuela the regime was careful not to embark in excess optimism, for once. The opposition, if anything, was shocked that the SI rode high in the polls. We all knew better. The cartoon on the side tells you what we thought of the Trojan dove.

So we come to the explanation of what happened.  I had decided not to write about the whole peace process much because, well, I have other priorities these days. But inspiration came tonight. Let's first go into the errors of Santos,

We can start with hubris, thinking that because he defeated the FARC as Uribe defense minister he was the hawk that could make peace credible. He got so enamored of this role that when things started becoming difficult he was unable to backtrack and forged ahead until today's crash.

Then came the choice of Havana and Castro's guidance to negotiate with its allies, the communist FARC. If at first there could be a case written for it, if anything to guarantee the discretion that the Cuban jail brought, it soon became clear that Santos was negotiating on the FARC turf, on the FARC mood swings, etc. But it got worse. As Venezuela started to unravel fast, that this one was a guarantee of the process became a minus. Colombians simply could not help but think as to whether an agreement with the FARC, made in Havana under the eyes of Venezuela's colonial masters, had a Venezuelan like future in store.

And there was Santos reelection problem. For many reasons having been elected the first time by right wing votes he got his narrow reelection courtesy of  weak left wing votes. That gave back some strength to a left that most thought Colombians had outgrown in its ideologies and appeal. Many did not appreciate.

I suppose that a mix of all that, plus an economy not performing too well in recent years pushed Santos to make concessions he should not have done. But the man wants a Nobel and a blessing by Pope Francis, so a special judicial court, and special political rights, and no jail terms were a low price for the "surrendering" FARC. In fact, I understand that some thought that the FARC got it easier than what the paramilitaries got in the much criticized deal of Uribe.

I for one always thought that the NO would prevail. I was surprised to hear that polls gave a significant lead to the SI,  but "Mockus" I thought! Then again I found it fishy that one week before the vote Santos had in Cartagena a massive signature ceremony with all dressed in white and coming from all around the world, including the UN secretary. Before the vote?

But I suppose I had heard too many stories of Colombians leaving their Venezuelan lives to restart in Colombia. I had heard too often the more and more condescending tone used by Colombians when asked about Venezuela on TV. And more. It was clear to me that a large chunk of Colombians did not want to risk a Venezuelan like future and they were going to fight such prospect.

My surprise, if you ask me, is that the SI went as high as it went. But I understand that the campaign conditions were grossly unfavorable for the NO side . I suppose that rubbing often with FARC and Chavistas has taught Santos a few lessons on how to "win" elections.........

I am not going to speculate on what happens to Colombia next. Already all parts have announced that in spite of all the electoral threats and lies, they are all going to work together, now, to improve the current agreement. Which at least leaves me the satisfaction of shutting down fast a lot of creeps saying that Colombians are warmongering idiots.

What is interesting for this blog readership is the effect on Venezuela.

First, Santos has been way too kind on Maduro even if he obviously dislikes the regime. But he needed Venezuela support to secure the deal, understanding full well that a chavista Venezuela would be a haven for renegade FARCs wishing for a return to action at some future time. Never mind the drug traffic now using Venezuela as its main base.  This is no more. Now that penalties, even if not severe, will be applied to FARC leadership crimes, a secure base is less crucial for Santos or the FARC (if a deal is eventually reached, of course). Thus I suspect that Santos, in front of a totally unpalatable Maduro, will be more strict with Venezuela's abuse, and when done on Colombians in particular. In addition, being tougher on Venezuela (which is, face it, an increasingly irrelevant country) will bring him dividends while negotiating with Uribe folks the rewriting of the peace agreement.

For Venezuela itself we are getting rather bad news, The safe havens inside Venezuela are now well set and if anything Castro and the FARC are after today going to insist further on their safety and intervention in Venezuelan affairs. Maybe a little too much for the military taste. Maybe a little bit too much to make the necessary changes to avoid general starvation. Maybe a little bit too much for foreign countries who were made a mockery of in Cartagena a few days ago and now may want to make sure it does not happen again, in Cartagena or Caracas.

Tienes derecho a tu opinion pero tengo derecho a no respetarla

El régimen chavista ha trabajado mucho en alterar nuestro idioma para poder imponer sus ideas, debilitar nuestro pensamiento y afectar nuestra ética. Ya George Orwell nos explicaba ese fenómeno totalitario en "1984" o "Rebelión en la Granja".

Palabras abundan, como eso de "fortalecer" todo para esconder y justificar la erosión institucional. Otra es "libertario". O "apatrida". Etc.

Pero existe una expresión muy en boga ahora que ya no puedo tragar mas: "respeto tu opinión". Inclusive el periodismo la ha santificado a punto de olvidar lo que significan palabras tales como "hechos", "concreto", "seguimiento", "verdad".

Primero, está demostrado ampliamente que el chavismo no respeta nada, y menos una opinión. Preguntenle a Leopoldo López en Ramo Verde, el más dramático ejemplo. Piensen en todos los exiliados políticos.

"Respeto tu opinión" es en realidad una forma de decir con un mínimo de cortesía que tu opinión no sirve, no tiene sustento, no merece ser respetada, que la mía es la única que cuenta, la única con validez. ¡Una hermosura de dialéctica negativista!

Pero miremos hoy en dia todos los chavistas en el gobierno usando esa expresión.

¿Cómo puede tener validez la opinión de, digamos, el diputado Pedro Carroña Carreño? ¿No nos dijo ayer que las elecciones son un lujo prescindible? ¿Es eso respetable?

¿Cómo podemos respetar al vicepresidente Aristóbulo Istúriz cuando nos eructa que el abastecimiento va mejor porque hay menos colas? ¿No ve que las colas siguen? ¿Que si aparentase tener menos colas es que ya no queda nada que comprar?

Esto ya no es a nivel de propaganda política, ni siquiera de provocación y burla. Eso ya es a nivel de cuestionar el raciocinio del otro, de su capacidad de observación, decisión, pensamiento. Es deshumanizar al otro.

Así las cosas. Yo no sé lo que harán ustedes pero este aqui ya no respeta más las opiniones absurdas y sesgadas. El chavismo, y mucho radical de la oposición, tiene derecho a sus opiniones pero yo ahora recupero mi derecho a no respetarlas. Total, tienen años sin respetar las mías.

Options against the dictatorship

I am happy about yesterday annulment of the Recall Election. I know, it is perverse but I have my reasons.

First, there is no need to discuss anymore the dictatorial nature of the regime. Under Chavez there were elections at any turn. Now, there will not be elections, not even for dog catcher. The last argument that chavismo could use internationally "we never lost the boatload of elections we do" only works if you have regular elections.

The consequence of this is that any opposition group that does not call the regime for its true nature will lose quickly its supporters. These simply will fail to understand how faced with the truth their "leaders" do not react more assertively. I agree that increased polarization is dangerous, but at this point, what else can we lose?

Second, as a consequence from the above, the opposition alliance MUD needs to purge itself of its wishy washy elements. Either you support the regime (silence counts), or you oppose it. Again, dictatorial regimes can only be dethroned through unity (or foreign disaster like invasion). See the examples of Chile where all allied against Pinochet. Or even Mexico when all rallied behind the right wing PAN to kick out the eternal PRI and its "perfect" dictatorship. Never mind the exit of Fujimori where the unity of the opposition behind Toledo allowed international sanctions to be effective.

Third, and surprising, any negotiation to get out of the crisis is now more likely to be successful if the opposition unifies better, becomes more assertive. By blocking any election the regime in fact traps itself into a repression must that is not acceptable today in Latin America, at a time where even the Castros are starting to be questioned. Through negotiation we may not get quick regime change but a true negotiation which includes a real progressive release of the tools of power by the narco regime may be a better outcome for the country than ousting suddenly a corrupt elite that will immediately sabotage whatever the incoming administration will try. One reason why some inside the opposition are not as assertive as others is that they simply do not want to deal with the mess.

[NOTE: I am painfully aware that Venezuela is a neutered country. The sacrifices seen in Chile or Peru are not going to happen here. There are too many of us that can only be deranged for a looting party. There is a perfect French word without direct translation to characterize what I think of the bulk of the Venezuelan population: veule. a mix of spineless and coward. And I include there those that are keyboard warriors, calling for all sorts of action from the MUD that they have little intentions to lead themselves. Never mind the chavista colectivos who only attack under pay and military protection. Certainly there are steel soul heroes like Lopez but the indignation only goes so far.]

In front of all this what are the options?

It is time for the MUD to put its neck forward. It has been 24 hours since the CNE did what was foretold. Last night the only minimally acceptable answer for the MUD was "We are not accepting this. We knew it was coming and we have plans. We will not reveal them now because we needed first the details to complete them. Tomorrow we will tell you".

We had to wait a couple of hours until finally someone said something without any further immediate perspective. In short, the MUD is not sure what to do. I assume, hope, they have an idea, that the delay is part of a strategy.

Clearly, if the MUD does not react we are in for a full Maduro term with utter destruction of the country.  Never mind that the regime will use the two years left to destroy physically the opposition and plan for a totally fraudulent presidential election in December 2018. Or later, as the crisis is an open door for all sort of excuses.

Today, for good measure the high court TSJ annulled yet another key vote from the National Assembly. And yet this is where the resistance comes from. The National Assembly needs to vote the illegality of the regime, just as the regime decreed its irrelevance. How to do that? A few things, in no particular order.

Refuse to discuss the budget. Once this one is passed by a TSJ fiat, vote a resolution that any lender is going at its own risk, that the Assembly will not recognize debts contracted through that budget that are not duly monitored. Bankrupt the regime. You may say that the propaganda of the regime will put the blame of the famine on the opposition but I doubt it at this point. And the MUD can always say that they refuse to give money to thieves.

Reduce taxes, in particular sales tax and see how the regime can finance itself.

Claim article 350 of the constitution and start an organized campaign of civil disobedience. The beauty of that is that you do not need to obey the TSJ anymore.

Vote the destitution of the latest TSJ appointment as illegal and announce that the rulings do not need to be followed anymore by anyone in the country.

Vote the destitution of the current CNE board. That it will delay future elections? At this point who cares!

Etc.

There are means that can be acceptable for the international community while the regime would be either pushed to capitulate or become a new Cuba.

But for this you need a unified opposition willing to face down the regime and stand the risks that come with such a fight. I do not see it, or at least not the unity required for this. Nor the vision.

I hope to be corrected, to be proven dead wrong.

Thy electoral CNE shoe droppeth

There will be a lot of brouhaha in the next days about the ignominious decision of the CNE to do its utmost to violate the constitution in order to block the Recall Election against Maduro. Let me try to make it clear for readers still hanging around here.

1) The motivation in any case is to annul the Recall Election, or in the very worst case push it to 2017 which means that the regime remains in office until January 2019 at the very least.


In fact, the regime has announced today through one of its formal provocateurs, Pedro Carroña Carreño, that voting was not a fundamental right, that there was more pressing needs like food or medicine than elections. The provocation is, of course, the public knowledge that the crisis is the regime fault and thus it will never win an election again, and it knows it. Never mind that there might not be money for elections but there was cash for the useless NOAL summit in Margarita last week that could have easily paid for an election. Nevermind on how much medicine could have been bought out of the food given, say, to Mugabe.

In short, before I go into details, as I already wrote in previous entries, the regime does not want elections. Period.

2) The constitution states clearly that any recall election must be asked by 20% of the voters in the district that elected the said person. The electoral board CNE today announced that even though Maduro was elected nation wide the opposition will need to collect 20% in each and every state. So, even if, say, 30% nationwide signed for the recall election it is enough that in a single state there is ONE VOTE missing for the 20% to annul the whole experience. The article 72 is clear and precise, there is a need for a 20% nation wide and it is irrelevant if that number is reached through 100% of voters in state X while state Y has 0% signatures.

Thus we have right there a flagrant violation of the constitution. If they do that so bluntly what can we expect for the "details" next?

3) The CNE said that it would give the opposition only 3 weekdays, 7 hour week day, with one hour for lunch for the CNE workers. That is there will be a Wednesday, Thursday and Friday allocated, from 8 AM to noon and from 1 PM to 4 PM. That is, unless your boss gives you the time to stand in line for hours you will not be able to sign up for the recall election. Never mind public workers who will be tightly controlled those days and fired on the spot if they are out of office during that timetable.

4) And to make sure that this timetable is even more difficult to fulfill the CNE has allocated only 5,392 finger printing machines. Let's do some simple arithmetic.

If all goes well, no electric outage, no sabotage, no violence, etc, etc...  we have 21 hours per machine. Let's assume that each machine can collect one signature per minute in such perfect conditions. The maximum signatures that can be thus collected in those three days are:

5,392 X 21 X 60 = 6,793,920 signatures.

We need, besides the per state quota difficulty, 3,893,129 signatures. That is not bad you may say. Think again. I have assumed that the 21 hours will be indeed perfect 21 hours. Also, there are always imponderables and we know from experience that the CNE has a proclivity to annul signatures at will, even if collected by themselves. The "safe number" is not 20% per state, it is 25% per state, which is above 5 million nationwide.

A couple of rainstorms across the country is enough to already make you lose half a million. A few well designed power outages and there you have another half a million gone. Since it is to be collected state by state all those that cannot return to their home state will not be able to sign. Etc.....

Not collecting on a week end makes it, just becasue of logistics, very difficult to get that 4 million signatures. Since elections are on Sundays, you can appreciate in full the hypocrisy and cynicism of the CNE in deciding on working days and working hours for signature collection.

5) And at this point we do not know yet other details such as where the limited numbers of collection centers will be located.  If you vote here but you need to go over there, preferably in a rough neighborhood, to sign up, will you?

6) But just for good measure the CNE has announced that it will take its sweet time to decide whether the signatures have indeed been collected. Nevermind that they collected them themselves, with their people, their machines, etc. They blithely said that the Recall Election "could take place" during the first quarter of 2017. Thus annulling its desired effect, as I mentioned above.

Voila!

This being said.

Technically there is still a possibility for the recall election to be held before January 10. After all, January 9 IS in the first quarter of 2017. All will depend of course on what the opposition MUD will do in the coming days and how willing is the army to repress as needed.

Right now, today, it would seem that the regime has accepted to remove Maduro from office. But that is all, he must be replaced by someone inside the regime, WITHOUT presidential election. That is right, if Mauro were to be recalled in the first quarter of 2017, the vice president HE NAMES one day before the vote would be the one that would complete the remaining two years of the term. AN UNELECTED PRESIDENT, AN APPOINTED PRESIDENT FOR TWO YEARS. If you think that this will solve the political crisis........... think again.

As I have written several times, the solution to the crisis is not electoral, it is political through a show of force. The easiest exit is for Maduro to resign today and we elect a new president (in office for only 2 years, so incoherent is the 1999 constitution). The opposition would win that election and for two years would have to deal with the horrendous crisis. Thus in December 2018 chavismo could make again a case to be returned to office.

But that would be if chavismo were in the hands of democrats which is not the case. Chavismo is owned by a military-narko-mafia which will be indicted in many an international court. A mafia controlled from Havana at that.

Tell me, is there a possible pacific electoral outcome? No. No way. The only outcome is through a break up inside the army to force out of office the most corrupt elements. That is, chavistas against chavistas. The best we can hope is for Maduro to be forced to resign.

The Recall Election is not an option but it is about the only pressure the opposition has right now. Unless we go into civil disobedience, a constitutional assembly election (mbwahahah!) or something of the sort.

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Two not quite related comments.

1) it seems that chavismo wants the opposition to do the dirty job of removing Maduro and only that. It is almost as if the regime wanted the opposition to give up on the Recall Election and negotiate something like a power sharing arrangement which would allow for some legal protection for the narko-personnel.

2) observe that the CNe conditions do not make it absolutely impossible for the opposition to get the 20% it needs but it makes it impossible for the opposition to get more signatures than the votes Maduro got in 2013. At least that humiliation would be spared the regime, if worse came to worse for it.

There we are not, at freedom

Long time I did not write a summary of what is going on. As usual there is a big yawn along as everything changes fast but everything is, in the end, the same: a gang of thugs will do whatever it is possible to retain power because they know what awaits them once they lose. Nevermind the culture of violence that goes with such mentality where only brute force is the argument. Negotiation? Only to gain time until I finally find a way to screw you once and for all.


This been said things are not going any better for the regime. True, the vice president and the communist minister of economy are saying that lines are lesser, that we are turning around a corner, that imports are on the rise since January, etc.  The reality is that indeed lines are lesser. See, supplies are lesser so there is no need to stand in line for stuff that will not come in. Shopping on weekends for groceries is great: since there are no deliveries anymore on Saturdays then what is left is for the people that have money enough to buy what the hoi polloi cannot afford. For the first time in years I am hitting again grocery stores on Saturdays (Sundays are, well, empty no matter what). As for the commie minister (he used to be a PCV member before jumping ship to Chavez), someone in his office should point to him that historically January has always been the lowest month for importation since the country is out of business until mid January. No dockers....

Politically the big fight remains the Recall Election before January 10 2017 since after that date a chased Maduro can name his successor, no election needed for the next two years. As I suspected long ago, it is not going to happen no matter what the opposition does. Too much at stake for the regime. Yet the good fight must be done in the off chance that a division inside chavismo allows in the end for the recall election; or,  better, we have Maduro resign before January 10 (which I think is what will happen if chavismo decides not to go full metal jacket on repression).

The strategy of the "legal" chavismo (and institutional military?)  is to wait as long as possible in the vain hope that oil prices go up just enough to resupply a little bit food shelves and thus make electoral defeat not a fact. Since production is not promoted and that economic repression is getting worse, I do not see how can this happen even if within one year oil were to go back to, say, 80 a barrel. But chavismo is entitled to dream too.

Meanwhile the "illegal" chavismo (and narko military?), the one that does not give a crap about appearances and that wants not only to get rid of the opposition but also of timorate chavistas, is forging ahead. The packed high court (never a dissenting opinion in the TSJ) has annulled anything the National Assembly does. The problem is that we need to vote next year budget and the constitution is quite clear in that it can only be approved through a National Assembly vote. We are sure that the TSJ will write something to annul yet a new sector of the constitution which for all practical purposes is only good enough to replace scarce toilet paper. The final head-on conflict must happen in the next weeks as the to-do list of TSJ before the end of the year is 1) annul the recall election proceeding 2) decide the budget 3) bar the nomination of a new electoral board 4) support legally repression and, why not, 5) disolve parliament without electing a new one.

While chavismo is desperately establishing a dictatorship without any popular support things outside are not improving for them either. The non aligned summit of last week was a fiasco as only a dozen of the 100+ head of state showed up. And we are talking here of Mugabe, Castro and other undesirable ones that have zero credentials on democracy. No luster from the summit except perhaps for some lumpen chavismo, part of it being carried to a refuge like tent city nearby the luxury hotels to provide Maduro with the adoring crowds he needs to prove his alleged popularity. Indeed, since Maduro was pot banged live in Margarita Villa Rosa community the regime takes no chances, from jailing as many as possible to bring its own sycophants along.

And I will pass on MERCOSUR giving an ultimatum to Maduro...

Thus repression keeps apace. What else could the regime do? We learned this early week alone that now Leopoldo Lopez is deprived of any light at night in his jail, that they search him and force him to undress uncounted number of time, etc...  all enough to deserve for the regime a boat load of human rights crimes trials against the regime. But the best example of regime fear and desperation came today.

Primero Justicia hired three guys to do a video on the situation and against repression. The army quickly jailed the three producers on treason charges and put the three civilians at the disposition of a military tribunal. So there you are (while the leadership of Primero Justicia is so far untouched by the army...)

RT | ANTES QUE LO CENSUREN - El vídeo que tiene al Gobierno de Maduro desatando una ola de persecución y arrestos en Venezuela (1/3) pic.twitter.com/AHhN5Eae7V

— Alberto Rodríguez (@AlbertoRT51) 20 de septiembre de 2016

.

A short summary of what happens in the video.

The girl tends to her sick mother. She looks at the empty fridge and texts her father to tell him that she is off to stand in line because she cannot find the medicine for her Mom and that there is no food at home. It just happens that her father is in the army and getting ready to repress a student march. The daughter reminds her father that the people he is about to repress suffer of the same problems that they do.

Too close for comfort?

"Margarita follies": a cheap vaudeville in 5 acts

Prologue

PSUV tent city
Courtesy Elides Rojas tweet

In the fair city of Caracas, Henry Ramos gathers a few friends for a big party. Nicolas Maduro is not invited and he tries to sabotage Henry's party by complaining to the police for loud noise, and trying to hold a party of his own on a red shirt theme. His party is a bust: even people walking by Nico's party with red shirts take them off to go to Henry shindig.

Act 1 Nicolas at Pinkyville

Nicolas is furious at Henry and his friends, In particular those with orange shirts that accepted to don white ones at Henry's party. To get fresher airs he decides to go out of Caracas to visit a homestead where he is told lot's of people love him and would have gone to his party had he be willing to foot the cost. Lo and behold, when he reaches Pinkyville he finds his friends very pissed off at him because he took all of their food for his party in Caracas. Furious, they bring out a protest steel band of pots and pans to accompany their protest song. We will never now for sure but there may have been a exchange of more than just insults. Nico must make a quick exit and go back to Caracas swearing that all of these people have been sent by the folks of Henry's party.

Act 2 The revenge of the bitter

At Miraflores Palace Nico and his gang are sulking. They need to avenge themselves of so many humiliations even though the bard Vox Populi tells them that they asked for it. But she is a relative of Cassandra and everybody hates that bitch even more.

There is also the problem of that chic gathering to start soon next door to Pinkyville, where all the faded B list will gather to toast Nicolas who is paying for the drinks. Short of time, they decide to start taking on the orange shirts of Henry's party accusing them of street noise and killing kittens with farts. For good measure, to warn other people who attended Henry's party they send to the slammer Braulio who we learn apparently commutes back and forth from work with thousand of dollars in his car. It seems he did not know that such things go under mattresses,

Act 3 The neighborhood complains

All these people held against their will, with all sorts of made up excuses, manage a lot of noise. All sorts of neighbors complain, in particular Braulio's father who would like to know at the very least where is Braulio held. Nico's Friday girl Delcy vulgarly tells Chile Wine Export, the company of Braulio relatives to fuck off which not only infuriates further Braulio's Dad but brings out his uncle Almagro and the neighborhood watch HRF.

Some suggest that Delcy's therapist should not be his brother as it compromises the ethics of the trade and creates such unpleasantness and incompetency in such an insecure petty creature.

Act 4 Nico's fraternity bash

Considering all of this real and imaginary saboteurs, depending whom you ask, Nico's gang decide to lock up Margarita Island so nobody from main land could go to Pinkyville. Not even Henry who wanted to tell the guests that Nico stole his money to pay for the lavish party, money that was to be given to charity like taking care of children with cancer.

Enrique also wanted to go to Margarita to visit his God Mother on her birthday. He was trapped at the airport by a gang of red shirts who even grabbed their junk in offering to Enrique. This one filmed it all and this may have been the first case of live fascist porn on Periscope. The passengers going along with him enjoyed the show and backed Enrique refusing to leave the place so much fun they were having. Soon the good people of Pinkyville was rumored to be on their way to the airport and thus the red goons decided to retreat protected from video cameras and steel bands by the Venezuelan security apparatus.

To avoid further surprises Nico's gang decided to be able to sleep tight in their luxury hotel by having a few hundred red shirts come over. Since they were service they were put to sleep outside, in tents with rudimentary hygiene on some dirt undeveloped property. That way they could watch them form their AC suites and call on them as needed.  Any similarity to slavery or indented labour is purely coincidental.

Act 5 What if you give a party and (almost) no one shows up?

So Nicolas launched his party without witnesses to which more than 100 head of gangs were expected. Apparently not even a dozen came and none of the stars, though plenty of underlings came to enjoy all sorts of amenities at Henry's cancer struck children expense.

And yet Delcy did all what she could to entice them to come, waiting for the few of them that came on the tarmac itself, with lots of hugs and offers to carry their bags and free them from customs duty. Unfortunately the luminaries that came where those that had no choice. Rouani came because he had to pass the bills to Nico from past bashes; Raul needed to get his monthly stipend; Rafael because he has nothing better to do and Robert, who is not invited to any other party around the World, would not miss that one.

While the bash took place another formal diner party was held elsewhere. The guests decided that Nico would not be welcome anymore to their parties because he cannot stop acting like a brat and never pays his bills. Jose from Brazil made it a point to underline that Nico had not met any of the obligations he was supposed to meet in order to join that southern club.

Epilogue

Back at Miraflores Nico and the gang realize that they are more lonely than ever, that even paying for people party is not enough to have them show up. Someone suggests to jail all of Henry's friends around Miraflores so that nobody would know about such isolation.

The opposition MUD alliance great political victory

There is no way around it. Today the opposition political umbrella alliance MUD scored a brilliant victory. Here is why.

It resisted all sorts of terrible pressures to prevent the meeting in Caracas, from blockade of people going to Caracas (Sometimes even robbed by soldiers) to the jailing of half the leadership of Voluntad Popular  (And some of other parties for good measure).

In spite of all of this pressure it managed to hold at least three major gatherings in Caracas. The safe one where I was in Cafetal/Chiao. The less safe but of expected higher output along the Miranda Avenue. The definitely riskier one from Western ex Chavez-strongholds which gave us the better video of the day when a small group of forlorn red shirted creeps could do nothing against thousands walking in white.

The pictures are clear, a flood of people reaching at least a million walked. Probably more than in 2002 with way more threats than then.

In many places inside Venezuela rallies were held. Even one in New York Saint Patrick.

In spite of all fears the rally/marches run smoothly except for some localized incidents that for all that I know where caused by undercover chavista agents.

But the best evidence is the reaction of the regime. We had all sorts of desperate counter propaganda clearly destined to the remaining lumpen chavismo,  because charitably I cannot find another way to express it.

Of course, the regime called the rally a failure, but claiming that there were at most 30,000 people when the whole world is putting, sometimes in front pages, specific local shots that by themselves show more than that number?  Diosdado  Cabello went one further by posting a possibly altered picture of a Chavez rally at Bolívar Avenue in 2012 as it were today when not even the cameras of state TV could hide the low turnout of Maduro there this afternoon (with a heavy dose of light brown shirted militia to fatten up attendance). What has been more amazing is that in spite of a quick refutal  of the fraudulent picture many governors and chavistas posted it as true, even in far distant Bogota where ex mayor Gustavo Petro made once again a fool of himself talking about Venezuela.

But the most telling moment of the opposition success was when Maduro announced that he was planning to lift parliamentary immunity so as to put straight to jail any opposition member he does not like. As in all one must assume. Assorted with truly vulgar insults that should be censored on TV. The democratic option  is not in chavismo plans.

There is no arguing the success of the MUD today. The question now is what next.
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I am not putting links for lack of time tonight but a lot of it can be found in my time line on tweeter 

1S coverage by VN&V

Since last night post things got worse. A bevy of journalists have been barred from entry in or outright expelled from the country (useless unless they also expelled those that are already installed as fixed correspondents). Human Rights organizations count already 37 arbitrary arrests in the last 48 hours. Access to Caracas is nearly blocked. Threats from the regime have reached a new high pitch. Etc.

Still, I think that this is absolutely counterproductive and for anyone that will stay home scared, a newly pissed off one will decide to hit the streets tomorrow.


I, for one in a million, I hope for, will be there. But the sector where I am supposed to stand in the "taking of Caracas" is not the most glamour one, nor scenic. The objective of the event is to have a sea of people stand in the three main road axis of Caracas besides the main one, the central autopista. Mine from El Cafetal is the Rio de Janeiro avenue that follows the right bank of the Güaire river. Next to the smell of the open sewer that Chavez promised years ago to clean up so he could take a swim with Evo.

I supposed that one advantage will a be less crowded network usage so I may be able to post things real time on Twitter and Instagram.  In normal marches rallies closer to downtown some times you cannot even send a text! You have on the right side of this blog the links to both. Keep in mind that I am the last one of the historical bloggers still reporting from Venezuela in English. And who knows for how long...

Also if you have something to share send it to me. If I can download it and put it up I will. Or at night tomorrow.

That is all for tonight, going to bed hoping to forget for a few hours all the crazy going on,  including dangerous remarks by Maduro, remarks that by themselves would get him a spot on one the The Hague benches. It is that crazy for these creeps...

See you tomorrow starting sometime after 9 AM , maybe, depending on how the country wakes up.

Kalends of September for chavismo, or so it seems

The regime has made its business to turn into a fateful day the vast opposition rally planned for next Thursday September 1st. The regime has a lot to lose on that day, but it made sure that its losses would be greater than necessary. And, personally, at this point I do not see how the regime could rake any gain.

It all started when the opposition tired of waiting for a Recall Election date decided to mount a massive protest against Maduro's regime, that is, demanding his exit as soon as possible. Of course, the chosen way is to hold a Recall Election before January 10 2017. The opposition to Maduro has nothing to gain from any unconstitutional settlement of the political crisis: all polls give the opposition soaring numbers since last December stunning electoral victory. Besides, even if the opposition did not enjoy a 70+ against Maduro and wanted to do a stunt, how would it do that? The Venezuelan opposition has been deprived of arms, newspapers, TV, and even of its politicians as many are in jail.


The regime knows all of this, certainly. It also can read polls. And it knows that outside of the likes of Cuba or Nicaragua it has no international support left, at least of the kind that would speak favorably of Maduro. Even supposed allies like Putin or Correa are, well, rather discreet in their praise, if any.

The battle for the regime is lost. They are unwilling to change the economic system, to open up. As such the economy will keep spiraling down and soon there will be outright bouts of near starvation with all the political mess that comes along. The laws of the economy are finally speaking up in Venezuela and there is no hope that the only economic policy left for the regime, oil at 80 USD a barrel, will happen in the near future. And never mind its personnel as Venezuela is the only country we know of where its interior and security minister cannot travel out of the country least Interpol grabs him and sends him to a trial in the US. Needless to recall the awaited fate of other regime's luminaries.

Faced with what is predicted to be the largest anti regime rally since 2002/2003 the regime decided against the wise move: let it happen and ignore it the best you can, using this as a demonstration that democracy is not dead in Venezuela. Instead it has chosen the worst way to prove that this is indeed a dictatorship.

All sorts of means to block the rally are attempted, too long to list. Here follows the main ones.

- Threats of all type, verbal menaces from higher up in the regime
- Outright fascist firing of public employees that dare criticize in any way the regime's results (examples here, here and here)
- Forbidding Al Jazeera journalists from entering the country to cover the events
- Forbidding any private flight, even drones, until September 5, so that there would be no evidence of the large turnout, as if roof tops were not enough to establish that anyway. And it does not matter as the opposition announced it will fly drones anyway (so I can illustrate for you the mood)
- Blocking access to Caracas for the possibly 100+ thousand people that will show up from all parts of the country
- After months of absence reopen food fairs like Mercal so as to try to divert folks from the march to go and get some of the scarce food. Though it is not clear if it is just counter propaganda planted by the regime.
- Call for its own counter rally downtown Caracas to block the opposition possible march there
- Promises of all sorts for Caracas, all to be done by Christmas
- All sorts of conspiracy theories as to the opposition wanting to reedit April 11 2002 (from the hands of the Empire in the North, of course)

Etc...

But the worst assault has been on Voluntad Popular, the political party of Leopoldo Lopez, the cause celèbre of political prisoners. For the last week there has been an onslaught against the leadership of the party, from accusing the mayor of El Hatillo of smuggling arms, to take San Cristobal mayor from his sick bed in the middle of the night to send him to jail, to outright kidnapping of militants. The vindictiveness of the large concerted attack on Voluntad Popular is simply amazing. Other political parties are not buying: they know they are next. And the OAS least raised its tone as its secretary has issued, in Spanish for now, a long letter which resumes all fo the above and can be read as a stern warning against the regime.

We must wonder what is the regime seeking. Can it be so clumsy? Is there some master plan behind?

I am afraid that the regime seeks an act of violence that it can provoke easily itself by sending under cover to the rallies Thursday delinquents that will pretend to pin on the opposition a violence that the regime will have started itself. That would explain all of the conspiracy theories blurted these past few days and the arrest of Voluntad Popular leadership which will presumably bear the brunt of the accusation. The ridicule for the regime's cause that Voluntad Popular would have committed the crimes AFTER their incarceration does not seem to have been considered. But that is not the point.

A desperate regime is building a narrative to justify its September repression in the eyes of the followers it still has. In short, the regime is preparing itself to cut loose from the civilized world and drive into oblivion the Venezuelan populations just as the Cuban one was pushed down to nothing within months of the arrival of Fidel in 1958. All seems to point out to that strategy, from ignoring the OAS to put in jail Voluntad Popular leadership, the most active in the streets, the one that apparently must be threatening the most chavismo.

Let's not forget that the loudest voices inside chavismo are the ones most likely to go to jail as soon as they set foot outside of the country. They have nothing to lose anymore. Hence...

Which does not mean they will succeed and as they fail, well...

FARC soon at a Venezuelan arepera next to you

ABC journalist and bete noire of chavismo for all of the insider leaks he has been reporting, Emili Blasco, writes a piece in ABC about how the FARC is preparing its retreat to Venezuela once (before?) any peace treaty is signed with the Santos administration.

Since it is in Spanish a short summary follows, plus what I wrote on that already in 2012:

The argument of Blasco is that the closing of the Colombian Venezuelan border since last year was in fact an excuse to justify removing some of the military contingent there and allow thus for less surveillance. The objective would have been to ease the transfer from Colombia to Venezuela of some of the FARC weaponry, drug manufacturing and guerilla personnel that cannot remain safely inside Colombia once a peace treaty is signed (forget about a referendum on  it and an eventual enforcing, these are another matter).

That may be true, Blasco makes a good case. I would add to his case that the delay ad patres in governor election due this December is a powerful argument in his favor, something he did not mention.  Effectively, as chavismo is almost certain to lose most state houses, it is crucial for them to finish any resettlement of the FARC while finding ways to preserve at the very least the states where the FARC will find refuge. This is a tall order unless the regime decides to annul the elections or do a massive and obvious cheating, always a possibility with these desperate crazies. Then there is also the possibility of a negotiated election where the opposition gets all state houses except for those of Zulia, Guarico, Apure and Amazonas. It is not outlandish [sigh...]

In 2012 I did draw this map below where that whole chavo-narko-FARC strategy was put together (retaken in 2013).

How chavismo plans to offer refuge to FARC.
In light mauve the zones in Colombia where FARC and ELN concentrate before crossing over to Venezuela.

There you have it.

The saddest part of it all is that the FARC as well as the regime are absolutely oblivious of the consequences for the population' suffering that such a resettlement would entail. There goes to tell you how soulless a narko system becomes. Let's not forget that Castro has always sponsored drug trafficking to democracies as a way to weaken them. In Venezuela he seems that he has succeeded and in Colombia he is getting a new start courtesy of Santos (who in addition of his weaknesses will likely face soon million of hunger refugees from Venezuela). As far as chavismo, Castro and the FARC are concerned, poverty and violence are a good tool to control the populace.

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Hat tip for the Blasco article to my friend Fausta, always on top of such stuff.

Tales from the breadlines

Two short tales on food lines.


There are breadlines everyday in front of the bakeries that will be making bread. Not all do, some because they cannot deal with the mess and others because, well, they have no flour. The lines start forming around 11 AM or 5 PM. That is that.

The other day I was in El Recreo district and stuck in traffic I watched what is a short line. Yes, a short breadline. I have seen some that are 3, 4, 6 times as long as the one you can see in this Instagram video I posted. Being bored I did make a croquis of that line, to locate the picture below.

This is the little tail on the map below where
it says foto.

On other news, a tale from my cleaning lady.

Now she needs to go a get a number the day before her appointed day for shopping (note: for certain items you can only shop on the day that corresponds to your last number of your ID card). That line to get the number by itself lasts a couple of hours, at least, if you want to be sure to get a number. And then you still need to go early next day and do, at least, another couple of hours standing in line if you want to make sure supplies are not exhausted before your turn comes.

This is already bad enough but it gets worse. See, while they are in line people chat, get comfy, start exchanging phone numbers so they can text each other when things arrive. So far so good. But the bachaqueros, those people making a living out of buying and reselling what they get in line, have noticed. So they play the friendly game without passing for bachaqueros and THEN, when they happen to not get as many number line as they wished for, they start calling people and threaten them if they refuse to give up the number they got.

In other words, within the long line there is a now a surveillance network of bachaqueros that notice who are the weak links and when they do get a number. Then, voila, extortion on those poor friendly souls.

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Added in proof: I just learned that the regime is now threatening to close/fine the bakeries that have lines outside. Apparently Maduro says that there is enough flour and that the bakers, in a giant conspiracy I suppose, want to force people in line to give bad propaganda to the regime.

Now I can die, I have seen it all.