A confusing but clarifying week

With the National Assembly swearing-in show and the collateral that came next Venezuela has experienced one of its most confusing weeks - but maybe one of its best ones-

Saddamization

The thread at the N.A. is simple. Chavismo could not find a way to stop its coming Götterdämmerung. So they came, saw and left. They could not avoid their first encounter with a free press in about a decade. Some of the questions were truly embarrassing like when a journalist was finally able to stand on the way of Cilia Flores and ask her about her narco-nephews. Not her nephews in jail in the US awaiting trial, but her NARCO-nephews, straight. This is what happens when you ignore and insult the press for so many years: they get so frustrated that they lose any sense of measure or respect. And poor Cilia, the "first fighter", the wife of president Maduro, had to pick up her pace to escape.

But this bringing down of Cilia was just the beginning of an iconoclastic binge. In the early morning next day the new chair of the N.A. Ramos Allup brought down all the portraits of Chavez that overwhelmed the decor. For good measure he also had brought down the computer created image of Bolivar out of his 200 year old remains. This necrophiliac endeavor from Chavez had become the new official portrait of Bolivar although there is a an existing portrait which was approved by Bolivar himself.

This carefully orchestrated act of Ramos Allup had the desired effect, an overreaction of chavismo which will cost it dearly. It included a lengthy military show in cadena (forced simultaneous broadcast on ALL networks and radios) to "desagravio"  redress/repair the insult made to Bolivar even though the bulk of the actions was in defense of Chavez who is, apparently, more insulted than Bolivar.

It is hard to imagine that the totalitarian mentality of these people could be exposed so well in such short notice. General Padrino wanted to impress on us that the computer Bolivar was now encrusted deep into the heart of all of us. How could it be otherwise, he implied. And this meant that Bolivar was insulted through insults to Chavez as the favorite "insigne" son of Bolivar (even if he never got 50% of the electorate to vote for him, even with his higher scores in votes cast). That there is no food or medicine after Chavez is not making a dent in these people who keep their idols up.  Hence the brilliant move of Ramos Allup, starting to tear down that mental construct that is blocking any progress for the country.

More details emerged to confirm that need. The mayor of Caracas announced that the whole city will be papered over with copies of the discarded portraits. Funds for that will apparently not be a problem. As to where will he find the paper and ink for that endeavour remains to be explained. Other chavistas suggested that all chavista households should have well displayed Bolivar and Chavez, a new version of the yellow star I suppose for those who do not harbor the "insigne" badge.

Meanwhile Ramos Allup forges ahead and went alone to Quinta Crespo market for his week's groceries, to the great wonderment of el pueblo not used to see chavista nomenklatura shop on their own (even if he had to leave in a hurry after red storm troopers arrived). Whatever criticism people throw at Ramos, and many are from the opposition itslef, we must thank him for breaking a taboo. The idolization of Chavez will never be the same.

The government thread is briefer: they have lost the capacity to set the political agenda and their race is to keep up with what the MUD and R.A. do. I am not going into the expected Greek chorus that want already to nullify the N.A. and jail R.A. I am just going to look at what happened at Miraflores. There Maduro named a new cabinet which kept military in the main positions, and the ones that move the most money. Some cryptic moderates under the guise of people with experience in the private sector were appointed. And to balance it all a social sciences major with nebulous ideas on economy and zero experience is the alleged new star.

But the new cabinet is more interesting through what is missing: some of Cabello heavy weights even though he still has his wife as tourism minister. Some see in that a real weakening of Cabello who, stripped of his power base at the N.A. and the refusal by the army to follow him in a coup on December 6, may be just on his way out. Perhaps even as a token offering to the DEA in a near future? All is possible but I also concur that Cabello's day are counted unless he finds new support that these days could only come from forgiveness of an opposition that he has brutalized for too long. In a way Cabello aura of invincibility is another icon that was brought down this week. After all since December 6 he was threatening and threatening and yet in the end he had to surrender the N.A. seat and could not stop its first measures, ridiculing himself by threatening the N.A. to leave it without funding.

As the first true week of the Assembly looms we may expect more surprises, the more so that it seems resolved in promoting first an amnesty law which could be the final showdown into forcing the regime to compromise,or to surrender. The final release of Leopoldo Lopez in the streets maybe too much for the regime to endure without breaking down. We will see.

Tales of a military temper tantrum

What has inflamed the 2.0 tonight is the late afternoon address of Padrino Lopez, in cadena nonetheless. A quick video analysis follows.

The act at Chavez grave is a "desagravio", that is an act of redress, in this case of the memory of Bolivar, Chavez and the honor of Maduro. We get that in the first seconds. Of course this is a response of yesterday Ramos Allup iconoclast act or removing the images of Chavez and the fake Bolivar at the National Assembly. The fake Bolivar is a "reconstruction" based on the skull of Bolivar that Chavez got through profanation. So, from the start poor Padrino ends up being quite ridiculous defending a 200 yer old reconstruction which present Bolivar with more "negroid" characters than the portrait that Bolivar himself approved of.  But this bolivarian Venezuela....

In all truth here the outrage is against chasing Chavez from the National Assembly hallways where he should have never been to begin with. So the alleged Bolivar insult is used as an excuse to justify the defense of 17 years of ideologizing Chavez demi-god status.

Observe the actual camera focus at 40'' on the red foulard with the 4F which is the apology of the failed coup of 1992. Right there this is unconstitutional, illegal, traitorous and what next. Objectively there is no need to listen to the rest of the Padrino crap, but we must.

1:09 Padrino places Cilia flores above all the other representatives of chavismo. Some pigs are more equal than others.

2:03 Observe the panoramic of a fat military. Priceless.

2:35 The idiot taking pictures behind Padrino in what is supposed to be a most solemn occasion. They really cannot behave. Ever.

3:09 According to Padrino the whole fatherland has been "ultrajada" insulted, violated, etc... So he is the avenger.




3:30 He insists on Bolivar being the one offended. Go and see the Ramos Allup video again and tell me about that.

3:50 We finally get to Chavez "hijo insigne de bolivar y de la patria también" notable child of Bolivar and of the fatherland too. Note the order.........

Follows an amalgam as to Ramos Allup "ultraje" to the armed forces. Sure, the idol was toppled! Including biblical references of Jesus saying that you do not fight Satan with Satan. And suddenly at 6:30 Padrino approves of this, that they will not fight Satan with Satan.

7:45 close up of the fake Bolivar as he is cited that good manners make good laws. Really? Under Chavez?

Follows a dissertation about the preservation of Venezuelan history. never mind that Chavez rewrote it.

9:09 Freeze there and notice that the 3 army stars and the title of the communique Padrino then reads. You can see the title there.  By then you notice that the event has been very carefully planned.

Follows a series of banalities noting that Maduro is the embodiment of the state so he was also offended.

11;00 Padrino starts justifying the invented Bolivar of Chavez, starting that this image has been accepted by all (not by me anyway, but I do not want to make this post about me).

Follows more bullshit about how Venezuela became bolivarian.

11:35 Anti capitalist jab.

14:15 In defense of Misiones.

14:44 "Bolivar y Chavez", the amalgam is now complete. They cannot be separated and are both the embodiment of the fatherland. There you go!

15:33 The attempt at amalgam of Maduro to Chavez and Bolivar starts.

15:58 Padrino ratifies the army unconditional support to Maduro. Really? How often will that support need to be ratified? One wonders.......

16:59 "conciencia supraracional", supra rational conscience? What the f...? Is this the intellectual excuse for a coup?

And then, surprisingly, Padrino finishes this totalitarian speech with an olive branch of sort stating that all have Venezuelan best interests at heart and that such scenes should be avoided so as not to foster further divisions.  I, for one, read into this that Padrino has not read the speech he truly wanted to read. As to what that speech would be, I'd rather not speculate.

I do not know what this all means. However there are a few things that I can advance without fear of beeing too far from the mark.

First, for the armed forces living in inbred chavista and Cuban propaganda the idea that some people actually did not like Chavez at all is a surprise. For some reason they have equated a heavy imposed silence on us as a tacit acceptation of Chavez grandeur. It is not, and they are in shock.

Second, the actions of Ramos Allup have hit at the center of chavismo core beliefs, all that was used to justify years of looting and human rights violations in the name of a higher cause. That mental idol has also taken a hit.

Third, the regime suddenly realizes that the opposition means business and that a confrontation of powers is not a sure success for the regime. A rule in warfare is that you need to know your enemy. Watching the reaction of chavismo it seems that the opposition knows its enemy plexus much better than expected.

Still, Ramos Allup wishes he would have had it as easy as Leo the Isaurian.

A new geography of chavismo [Updated]

When political movements suffer a major set back they either go extinct or they reorganize for better days. This means that inside factions shift, balances change and the result of these glissando will be extinction or renewal. With events these last two weeks we can start seeing how this is shaping.


The regime lost bad on December 6 but not everyone inside lost the same. The big loser is Diosdado Cabello; he lost his soap box, a lot of protection and his ability to rule through fear. Maduro lost a lot for sure as the election was a referendum on his tenure. But he is still president while Diosdado is, well, not much more than a minority party representative. If for the sake of survival the rivalry between the two men has been put in the side burner a year ago when polls started to look bad, that rivalry still exists and the need for survival is now desperate.

With the army party slightly on the side as they are not willing to pay the political price of 17 years of misrule, with the corrupt chavista narco elite blamed internally for the catastrophic economic crisis, it is the hour of the radicals and they are going for it.

Maduro formed in Cuba and the Castro's viceroy is naturally fond of radicals. He did not advance them before because chavismo was a coalition of interests where displacing a single group could have dangerous snowball effects. But now he can because the other factions are stunned not only because they lost on 6D so badly but also that the people did not revolt to expel the MUD invaders and restore chavismo to revolutionary glory. I am not making this up, read their own words in the press.

The thing about radicals is that even if they lose a battle or an election they do not care much as to the why and how. They just care about pursuing their agenda at all costs since they truly believe that through its completion people will finally see the goodness of their proposal. Be it radical chavismo, IS or Marine Le Pen. Thus yesterday we saw Maduro finally imposing a cabinet more to his liking where the economy tsar/star is pure lefty, but someone without even a formal Marxist formation. Luis Salas is a prophet. He has had visions that inflation does not exist, that gas is not subsided, that Polar hides months of national production in a small warehouse somewhere. As a prophet now in charge he will demonstrate that his fantasy world was the truth that others failed to see and thus failed to seek.

If some of the chavista factions may be stunned they are not necessary totally oblivious. The army sent back to its barracks keeps a few seats, in particular the defense minister Padrino who was the guy that refused to commit electoral fraud a month ago. Some more sensible heads are still around such as the new vice president or a couple of economy ministers offering a strange balance to Salas. It should be noted that the new vice, Aristobulo Isturiz, would be a great president for a short transition in between Maduro departure and the election of its successor. In fact, Isturiz could well be the best candidate chavismo has to offer but is smart enough not to accept this late in life such a poisoned gift. President for a few weeks will suffice him.

Thus go the moves inside chavismo, the first serious realignment since the civilian faction was ousted when Ramirez and Giordani were expelled. Now the fight in earnest between the radicals and the bolibourgeois narco elite supported by part of the army has started.

We will see if some inside the PSUV have the nerve to form a third faction to avoid the final demise of the Chavez party.

I have my doubts.

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Update.
Rafael Poleo thinks that the new cabinet and the iconoclast wars are a strategy to remove Diosdado Cabello once and for all. I am not mentioning this because I concur, I am just noting it to illustrate the wide swath of speculation going on.

El nuevo gabinete y el discurso de Padrino son las pinzas conque sacan del poder a Diosdado.

— Rafael Poleo (@PoleoRafael) January 8, 2016

La fuite en avant or is it La politique du pire ?

French political language is rich and dates from the French Revolution where between 1789 and 1815, depending on how you count, up to 12 government systems could be identified. There are two sentences that need to be used for this entry. La fuite en avant refers as when you have no option but just make a run for it straight ahead and hope for the best (escaping straight ahead). La politique du pire refers to make the situation worse in the hope that people will want to go back to a past situation because it was less worse, grammatical mistake on purpose. Or to destroy everything so no one can do anything against you.

Today we can use BOTH expressions.


But before I keep going on you need to understand that the regime is acting as it does because its top leaders know full well that if a semi functional Assembly manages to get hold too many of them will end in jail. If you do not understand that then maybe what comes next will make little sense to you.

The mechanic of Wednesday events started with a series of videos summarized in a Tal Cual entry. These videos explicitly show how all the Chavez propaganda at the National Assembly was taken down Tuesday evening. But that is not the real story. These videos which pretend to be amateur are, I am sure of it, a carefully thought provocation by the new chair of the Assembly, Ramos Allup. Among other things he says that the only pictographie allowed in the Assembly are the official classic portraits of Simon Bolivar, that the necrophiliac reconstruction of Bolivar by Chavez was something crazy and that it should be taken with all the rest to Sabaneta (Chavez birth place) or Miraflores Palace or the trash, that he could not care less but all had to go.

Sure enough the assembly was under siege by chavista supporters Wednesday night...

So why did Ramos Allup took such a chance? Because he knows that a confrontation with the regime is unavoidable. It is going to happen, it is just a calendar question and Ramos Allup has decided that he will hold the calendar of the confrontation. So far at least today he is proven right: chavismo at Wednesday's session was out of itself to the point of hearing stupid things like a decomposed Cabello saying that there will be no money for the Assembly. I suppose that he thinks that international lenders will come and approve loans to Venezuela that are not signed by its National Assembly.....

Ramos Allup also proceeded into the swearing in of the dismissed representatives of Amazonas (though apparently they are refraining from voting). This is the other side of the coin. It may look as a provocation but as long as these never vote the decisions of the assembly cannot be judged illegal. On the other hand the blood thirsty radical wing of the opposition will get a bone to chew on while Ramos Allup woks on the really pressing matters.

In short, Ramos Allup got today the hysteria of the regime in full display showing them saying anything, preparing any thing to stop (or escape from?) the Assembly, la fuite en avant.

That night we got further regime reaction with the naming of the new Maduro government. I have not much to say on that except for a few points that are telling enough.

First, the regime has decided to cave in its radical left. Luis Salas is the new coordinator of the economy. He is a "professor" at the bolivarian university founded by Chavez to "form" all the public administration he needs. Objectivity has never been a value taught at the UBV. He has worked with PODEMOS in Spain. And if that is enough to scare you to death, you just need to read the titles of his opus at Aporrea where you can find gems like "The price of gas as a fetish" or "Economic war and social war. The mafiosi and paramilitary code behind the fascist violence". Yes, an "economic professor" penned title that a serious blogger would never dare to pen.

In his team we have a Caracas PSUV candidate defeated and now available to occupy a seat in an administration in search of its Kerensky. For commerce Maduro named Jesus Farias, a guy holding a positon in the Communist Party until 2007. As if a commie had any idea about what "Exterior Commerce and Foreign Investment" was all about.

At least for some levity Maduro also appointed someone for the banking system that has an idea of what is to be done. He also named for Vice President the governor of Anzoategui, Aristobulo Isturiz, a survivor of pre Chavez years, just like Ramos Allup.

What can we conclude from that? The regime is unable to change its economical system. It simply cannot. So Maduro names the most radical wing to the economy position, to increase further controls as if it were possible. La politique du pire, burnt earth... And the creation of a ministry of "Urban Agriculture" is not going to make us avoid starvation.

But on the other hand the regime has not solved its internal contradictions and the side aware that things have changed has managed to put someone to try not to see the banks fold, and perhaps the only person in the regime that can negotiate a settlement with Ramos Allup: Isturiz. (1)

The only problem here is that I wonder if Maduro has the luxury of time anymore. If he persists in listening to people like Salas that are convinced that the country can produce enough just if capitalism is flushed out then he may be in for a rude awakening. He lost on 6D in 23 de Enero and they are just across the street from Miraflores.

I cannot believe that our hopes are now solely on Isturiz shoulders!

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1) Besides the impression that reaching to lunatics like Salas show that Maduro is short on people willing to work with him, we should note that Venezuela has a 1.500 million dollar bond issue coming to term. Can anyone imagine Salas negotiating an extension? Is default a near certainty? Is this why Medina went banking control, to prepare for default?

On Monday January 6 2003 this blog had its first entry

And that entry was from letters written through December 2002.


It has been 13 years and 4,338 posts. A ride if any.

If all entries had an individual page start I guess we would be talking around 6,000 pages. Maybe a few hundred more. Depending on the font chosen.

13 is my favorite prime number and apparently a kabbalistic one considering what is in store for next year.

And it is fitting that this anniversary comes one day after the opposition started on its way to liquidate the Chavez inheritance of corruption, looting and mismanagement.

The first day of the New Assembly

This entry started this morning (see bottom for earlier text) but I decided to edit it and keep it up as a regular entry.

I am sorry to limit my comments on what happened inside the Assembly because I went to the support rally. In spite of the low speed of connections I did manage to have a full report, video included, of what that rally was. Considering that it was early January when everyone is on Holiday, considering that the regime close 4, FOUR, subway stations to force people to walk about 2 KM to attend, considering the threats, I think it was a very successful demonstration. Visit my Instagram account for pics and videos, in particular the police barrier at the end of the march, two blocks before the National Assembly. For those new to Instagram you need to click on the picture for full details and comments.  Better get used to it and open your account, it is the future of micro blogging by eye witness.


As for what happened inside. It was a mess, chavismo trying to disrupt and sabotage whatever they could, sending a drunken opening speaker because it was for the oldest elected representative to open the session and proceed tot he election of the chair, Ramos Allup. Expect more of the like.

On noteworthy moments.

Ramos Allup gave a good speech and made it clear that the opposition got the message, that the regime is going to attack the New Assembly and that they will fight back, including a legal, constitutional, electoral, peaceful removal of Maduro from office in the next 6 months.

Cabello withdrew the PSUV group because supposedly Ramor Allup violated rules. As if he NEVER violated any rule himself.

Cilia Flores, wife of Maduro and representative from Cojedes was asked about her narco-nephews in jail in New York. She walked away with a truly dirty look, first time a journalist was close enough her to ask for the question we all wanted to hear.

Things were said that chavismo did not like. They are not used at how democracy works.

Reuters got it right: Venezuelans used to years of monochromatic to ideological TV could not believe it when in cafes suddenly TV was live with opposition politicians speaking.  It is true, when I drove back home I saw crowds spilling out of cafes!!!!

So there it was for a first rowdy day. But that is that, the opposition is now in charge at the Assembly. There is still the question of the illegally annulled 4 seats. But as wee say in French a chaque jour suffit sa peine.

For those who refuse to get into Instagram

Video of barricade

A video posted by daniel duquenal (@duquenal_at_vnv) on Jan 5, 2016 at 8:12am PST

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I will try to go to the rally in support of the New Assembly. If I succeed I will try to post stuff on Instagram and/or twitter. Links on the right side of this page.

Then again maybe not: I just learned that the subway stations around La Hoyada have been shut down for "security" reasons, which means you need to walk a mile to reach la Hoyada.  They will try to screw us until the bitter end!

We are going for it anyway.

Weimar or Harare?

Or was that a suicidal note from the regime?

I wrote earlier about the recent "economic policies" of the regime. But I need to add the latest from today, the de facto privatization of the Central Bank of Venezuela, BCV, to Nicolas Maduro and his camarilla.


In what is a gross constitutional violation Maduro modified through law decree the rules over the BCV. His enabling law did not allow him to do so, and the constitution either. Period.

Which are the modifications?

First, the National Assembly, NA, cannot name representatives to the BCV board of directors, they are now named all by the executive branch. That is right, the executive decides on its own on monetary and fiscal policies. No outside input or supervision needed.

Second, the new BCV is under no obligation to make its statistics public, that is, it will send them to the NA if the executive power allows for it. And apparently even then the NA cannot comment on them. One wonders how can the NA legislate if the most important statistics of the country remain hidden from view.

Third, the BCV can now lend to the regime whatever money it needs, and the conditions of such lending may remain confidential if the regime justifies of any crisis. That is, the banknote printing machine depends on whatever petty cash Maduro needs at any given day.

I need not insult the intelligence of the reader that if such a measure is not immediately overturned by the new NA we are going straight ahead into the wall of hyperinflation. Our currency is as of today is, well, worthless (today 847 to 1 USD, I bet you 1,500 by early February). Hello Weimar! Greetings Harare! We may just beat your records!

This suicidal action of the regime, because when hyperinflation comes in I have no idea how they will stop the people from Catia and 23 de Enero to come and burn down Miraflores Palace, has three clear intentions.

One is to avoid asking the new NA for budgets and their extension. Electoral needs will be covered directly through borrowing at the BCV, for example.

The second intention is to delay as much as possible the publication of the catastrophic economic news of 2015 which may well speed up the downfall of the regime.

The third intention, last but not least, principal in my eyes, is to hide the corruption, looting and mismanagement of the country under Maduro. When the numbers come in, when the NA is able to open hearings on some ministers like Rodriguez Torres, Osorio or the BCV director Merentes, these people will be unable to hide their responsibilities and penal measures will have to be required on the spot. Or these people will have to do a coup which would be hard to succeed considering the reasons why they will ask el pueblo for support. Henceforth the neutralization and privatization of the BCV.

I should add a fourth ancillary reason. Funding for Cuba will be very difficult through the NA. There will be a need to hide the looting that needs to maintain alive the Castro criminals. Blocking access to the BCV not only hides what was already given to Cuba but will allow for a year or two more of partial financing of Cuba. Then again since the country is all but bankrupt I wonder how much money can Cuba get anyway.

This, for me, is the worst possible thing the regime could do to itself. It is simply unthinkable and betrays the desperation of the regime and its willingness to disregard any rule, any constitutional obligation. But it also may show that the army is abandoning it. If they need to resort to packing courts and hiding the money it is because they cannot do a coup. Or so I hope for the sake of all of us.

The regime tries to play hard ball

I suspect that the live coverage yesterday of the new National Assembly chair election by Globovision must have irked a lot the regime. That must account for today's news, at least in part.

First Ramos Allup, the elected chair, went today, 24 hours before he is to be seated, the N. A.
A chavista mob barred the entry and Ramos Allup had to retreat.

An ex-president of Bolivia tweeted that:

¡Dios q le has dado a Diosdado desquiciado! Esbirros agreden @hramosallup Pres-Electo Asambl VEN antes d cambio 5E pic.twitter.com/3hzKfWTfxS

— Tuto Quiroga (@tutoquiroga) January 4, 2016

Good for the international public relations of the regime!

On other news the dismantling of ANTV, Venezuela's C-span wanna-be, has been confirmed. Workers showing up this morning found that they had been fired and that the equipment had been disassembled and/or taken away. Even Globovision is reporting it. This is quite remarkable because Globovision had been bought by chavista front men and that it showed yesterday live the election of Ramos Allup and today went to defend ANTV workers who have been fired BY THE REGIME. The reader should remember that the regime was accusing Ramnos Allup of wanting to fire ANTV workers but I guess they could not wait.

How can we read this?

First, the regime is clearly on panic mode. Doing these two measures a day before installing the new assembly, as many international witnesses are arriving and the whole world observes, is not good PR.

Second, there is true panic inside the regime that their stranglehold on communications is about to be broken. Never mind that NA interpellations of incompetent and corrupt ministers would be shown live on TV. So they blew up ANTV system in the hope that other broadcasters will not want to step in and repalce the NA cameras. Something that I suspect will fail: if Globovision is showing surprising hints of independence it is quite possible that the wind wanes at Venevision and Televen may do the same. Never mind that a quick reform of the communications law can do much more damage tot he image of the regime at home than poor ANTV could.

Meanwhile, let's check back at the ranch

While Caracas gets ready for tomorrow's hoe down let's check out what are the wheat and cattle yields at the ranch. The picture is grim.


It is certainly near impossible these days to get reliable figures of anything. So the devoted reader will have to take me at face value.

I can tell you that the animal protein production of the country is spiraling down, fast, as the regime is not allowing for the importation of what is required for animal feed. And since the Venezuelan crops are not too good, and must be used first for human feed (deficient amounts per se), you get the picture. For example poultry production stands at 50% of its potential and going down. Well, that is what I was told late November. I see nothing to improve that number and I suspect it is lower today.

If you want more subjective pictures hang around a supermarket. There are less lines. But because there is nothing coming in. If you are into luxury items like fresh produce, yogurt, milk, you can still sort of find. Yes, I include milk in the luxury items. The latest case of UHT milk I bought, "Mi Vaca" brand, cost me 3500 for 12 liters. That is 291 VEB per liter. In dollar it is nothing but in minimum wage percentile it is ruinous: 290/9500*100= 3.1% (rounding numbers).

That is right, the only milk available for the last three months represents 3% of the MONTHLY minimum wage for a single liter. I do not remember the last time I bought fresh milk; and powder milk at controlled price arrives, if ever, at some governmental store. For all practical purposes the regime has yielded and allows production of UHT skim milk with limited controls as the only occasional source of milk.

I can still manage because I do not eat either meat or arepas and I can afford milk, but I wonder how the hoi polloi makes it.

If you want even more subjective....  Tradition had that at midnight on Christmas eve and New Year's eve there were all sorts of private fireworks, some spectacular (people literally love to blow their money). In Caracas the smoke cloud used to be thick enough to dim the city lights. This is over. And poor pets went crazy days before as at anytime some jerk would blast out something somewhere. This is over too. Pets are happy. Christmas fireworks were sparse and lasted a few minutes. New Year's works did last a little bit longer than the ones on the 24 but the air remained clean and 15 minutes after midnight it was all over. The crisis has struck everyone, no money for fireworks this year.

And presents were scarce also. Not only the offerings were limited but the prices were out of reach. People offered food. A jar of imported marmalade was considered a nice present.

The real problem is unfortunately elsewhere. The regime is doing nothing. NOTHING structural. And the very few initiatives taken these past few weeks consisted in increasing taxes, put new controls and approve today, on the very last day of the outgoing assembly, huge special lame duck credits that basically leave the coffers empty for a while without Maduro needing to request money tot he incoming Assembly.

It is not idle to state that a lot of the last minute desperate maneuvers of the regime may be illegal since supposedly the Maduro cabinet was asked to resign a few days after 6D election. To this writing Maduro has yet to name a new cabinet and I doubt that a caretaker administration can request the funds demanded to an outgoing assembly that did not even bother to gather in full, letting such a momentous vote go to a "comision delegada", a substitute of congress strictly for control and emergency measures until the assembly can be called back out of its normal sessions.

All the recent measures, to give them a name, could have been easily accomplished through a feeble gas hike instead of increasing taxes and pushing further into the nation (the measures are special credits out of budget). The only rational explanation I can come up with is that the regime is planning an election in the next few months and is refusing to deal with the mess in the vain hope to pin it on the opposition.

Now I must stop, time to see if anything arrived at the grocery store nearby today.

In extremely reluctant praise of Ramos Allup

Today the MUD coalition voted on who would be the chair for the first year tenure of the National Assembly elected on 6D (NA). The winner is Henri Ramos Allup (1). I am very far from overjoyed but I also must make a great effort to understand the historic moment.

The new troika: majority whip (Borges) MUD secretary
(Torrealba) and NA chair (Ramos)

The negative first.

Henri Ramos Allup is the secretary of Accion Democratica, AD, the old grand party of the pre Chavez years. From the wreckage he did save some of the furniture but at the cost of being a kind of little tyrant, happily purging a few, in a very chavista way. But the reader should keep in mind that chavismo is mostly coming from the AD low rung hacks that were kept in check for their hardheadedness, incompetence and the like. Once unleashed we saw the dramatic results over these last 15 years of looting and incompetence. I am not pinning on these transfuges the narco state: that one comes straight from Fidel Castro and the FARC who had no problem recruiting into the diverse lumpen that joined Chavez.


But what is perhaps the greatest fault of Ramos Allup is his unwillingness to clean up a little bit around himself. Namely, he has many direct and indirect relatives involved with or working for companies that have got sweet and questionable deals from the regime. This does not mean at all that Ramos Allup himself benefited on any of these deals (I think he married rich or something anyway, and I am certainly not in a position to address that issue). The problem is that such relations have been pointed out routinely by many people. Investigative blogs have been written about companies like Derwick or suspicious contractors, and Ramos Allup response has been to block you on Twitter, avoid answers, etc. Dodge the ball, defended on that by people like Rafael Poleo who should have known better.

It is thus with great concern that some of us watch the election of Ramos Allup at the NA chair. We are sure that during his one year tenure little progress will be made on certain type of urgently needed investigations (amen of other issues dear to this blogger).

The positive, if I must.

We need to understand the political moment of the country. The chair of the new National Assembly will be the punching ball of the regime in desperate need to create an enemy. Since Ramos Allup is already a despicable entity for the regime, the opposition has nothing to lose promoting him. Ramos has thick skin, he can take anything the regime sends his way.

Ramos Allup has what we call in Venezuela pico de plata, silver tongue. So, not only he can take what the regime sends his way, but he can reply on the spot, on the mark, knowing how to dose carefully how outrageous he needs to be to make a point. That much I need to grant him: he may be the best around for that quality, the one needed to begin that difficult and dangerous transition process we are facing.

Ramos Allup is elected NA chair because the majority inside the MUD is center left. No other party besides AD has a national figure in that group. The other "national" candidate, Julio Borges leads a more to the center group. Even though he has the largest party, Primero Justicia, inside the MUD his natural allies are missing because either he shooed them away or they did not get enough seats. So Borges will need to seat this one out, paying for some of his political mistakes like alienating Leopoldo Lopez people who should have never been voting for Ramos Allup. In short, whether we like it being irrelevant, Ramos Allup is one of the two lone national figures seating in the new parliament. And we cannot do without a national figure for at least 2016.

Ramos Allup has abundant experience in Parliament work. That is the only thing he has done all of his life. Dealing with the regime's PSUV bent on sabotaging ANYTHING we need a wily fox at the helm until the newcomers learn how to manage things. That is the way politics work, sorry.

It does not hurt that Ramos Allup has had time to make many friends over seas to the point of being an important voice of the Socialist International (currently one of its many vice presidents).  Let me remind the reader that some of the strongest support for the MUD against the regime has come from many luminaries of the SI like ex Spain premier Felipe Gonzalez.

Finally I would not worry too much about his mark on the National Assembly direction: he is put there to face the required theater/play against the regime. The legislative work will be done by the rest of Assembly board. In particular it seems that Julio Borges will be the majority whip which means he will be the one setting the true priorities of the incoming assembly, as well as herding a majority that soon will show strain in holding its unity, a role Borges may be suited for.

So there you are, whether we like it we must recognize that Ramos Allup is a better fit for the political moment. But worry not, that political moment will vary very, very fast.


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1) Ramos Allup blocks me on his twitter account, as he blocks A LOT of people according to my Twitter account. In short any one that seems to disagree strongly with Ramos is blocked. Not as very good sign for someone presiding a Parliament, and who needs not to read or answer to tweets. So, if you have a twitter account pass that info to @hramosallup before he gets into international ridicule for blocking his account. NOTE: I have NEVER insulted him, just questioned his familial dubious links.

For witness this tweet from someone blocked by Ramos Allup wishing he could read the message of conciliation and harmony that the new chair is supposed to have sent. (Sigh!)

Si tan solo pudiera leerlo https://t.co/kLYQV9fL9Z

— Edgar Baptista (@edgarmanuel) January 4, 2016

2015-2016 continuum

Something strange happened to me over the holiday: I did not see the new year coming. At least not politically. Until December 31 the regime has been busy at trying to find ways to sabotage the swearing in of January 5, taking away even the cameras from the National Assembly so that presumably there will be no way to record the ceremony (and whatever vulgarity the regime plans to do then; or to hide that Cabello will not be the chair anymore?).


Thus it felt a little bit empty to write a "Happy New Year" entry for a political blog whose readers are aware that there was no holiday break this year, not even for this blogger with, to boot, a delicate family situation over the holidays. Whatever holiday optimism I may have had was expressed at the Christmas post. Then we were back to business as usual. So, happy holiday new year wishes here and that is that.

On Tuesday 5 the new National Assembly will be sworn in. The MUD opposition victorious alliance has already called for a mass rally at "La Hoyada" which is a couple of blocks from the National Assembly (and conveniently empty from all the buhoneros stalls there as these go on vacation the first two weeks of January, until people receive their first paycheck of the year, all previous income having been wasted away in December).

The regime? We do not know for sure yet. "spontaneously" some colectivos (armed thug gangs cum storm troopers of the regime) are making hot air about defending the revolution. Too bad that one of the most famous colectivo, La Piedrita, has lost its district of 23 de Enero on December 6. Maybe no one told them?

We are expecting the MUD to announce who will be the new chair of the Assembly (and the two vice presidencies which will be equally important at least for the first months of its tenure). We may even know who the chairs of the main committee will be, and whether the MUD will offer as a peace gesture a couple of these chairs to the PSUV (which should reject them on any excuse to accuse the MUD of undemocratic attitude or something).

Then, if the newly elected representatives make it to the National Assembly safely (still not a certainty as the army is responsible for that and probably upset at the regime forcing it into an unnecessary awkward to dangerous situation) we need to see if they will seat the 4 representatives barred by the unconstitutional 3 days ago. Unfortunately I am afraid that the MUD has no choice but challenge the court and seat these 4 representatives since, no matter what, a constitutional clash is sought by the regime and we might as well get it over with.

If eventually the New Assembly is installed, before it can even face a "normal" legislative agenda it will need to face the following issues: secure the Assembly perimeter so that people can come and go for the sessions; deal with the problem of live TV coverage of the sessions which means tackling down the control of ANTV (already under work); confront the judicial power which I doubt very much will take it kindly a refusal to abide of its illegal ruling. That last one is a must because we can be pretty confident that if the Assembly decides to vote that during the day time the sun shines the court will overrule it as unconstitutional. The firing of 4 seats was merely the first shot.

And then it will be January 10 and I would not dare to make further forecasts.

On the negative side we have a regime that is fighting for its political survival as it is questioned more and more inside chavismo. So they will take all the risks that they need to take, make all the provocations that are required to justify the fuite en avant that they have undertaken.

On the positive side the world is not fooled and in spite of the holiday season many voices have risen to warn the regime that tampering with the results and not seating the new assembly is not an option.

We will see. Meanwhile you can pass the culinary abuses of the holidays watching Caracas extreme sports events in the coming days. I think that we have the pseudo-Chinese curse on us. "may you live in interesting times".

The inevitable confrontation: let's begin by unseating a few representatives

As I have been writing through December in any possible way that I could come up with, the confrontation between the regime and the opposition new National Assembly is inevitable. And started in all earnest today. By demanding that almost a dozen MUD representative election is to be questioned, the regime has deprived the new majority of its supernumerary majority of 2/3 which would have allowed it to change some of the worst and more repressive and manipulative laws approved under Chavez. Namely the laws that ensure the regime's near dictatorial nature such as freedom of expression and control of the judiciary by the regime (absolute, 100% control by the way as nobody remembers the last time the regime lost a case in the high court TSJ).

True, the Assembly still preserves the 3/5 super-majority that it needs to control fiscal aspects of the regime, but the ones that matter, the ones that can bring back democracy to Venezuela, are, for the time being, lost.  Let's look at some details.

The regime uses two excuses to justify that up to a dozen of the newly elected representatives should not be seated. Note: such massive annulment is unprecedented in Venezuela since regular elections started in 1958, the more so that the regime controls tightly the electoral system which makes it implausible the theory that the opposition could commit fraud at election time (see OAS secretary Almagro 18 pages letter to Tibisay Lucena, head of the electoral board CNE).

The first motive is that in a few districts the amount of nil votes is larger than the margin of victory of the opposition candidate. In the eyes of the regime PSUV vehicle this mean that the real will of the people has not been expressed. In short: the regime does not recognize the possibility of the nil vote.

The first line of criticism against such a view is that if the nil vote needs to be taken into account then there should be no abstention and everyone should be obliged to vote. An obligation, by the way, that chavismo removed in the Constitution of 1999. The second immediate objection is that there is no way to say which way the nil vote would have gone if these people had been "obliged" to make a choice. At least in that part of the ruling the representatives are not unseated outright but the TSJ has opened the door to repeat the election in those district without any justifiable reason, going over the attributions of the CNE which should decide on such matters BEFORE the TSJ does. That is, if you consider that the CNE did not give you justice then you go to the high court of the country. The regime simply uses its stronghold on the judicial power to dictate the resolutions it needs to be dictated, bypassing whatever needs to be bypassed, starting with the will of the people.

The second motive is that apparently in the state of Amazonas, in the Wild South of the country, there may have been cases of vote buying. First, let's note the absolute cynicism of the regime who has made it an institutional practice to buy vote and blackmail public employees in voting for the regime, as they did in Amazonas. After the vote we have Maduro himself on record saying that since people did not vote for him he did not see any point in keeping building housing for them. We have the director of electrical service in Venezuela firing people suspected of not having voted for the regime. We have the documented distributions of goodies such as tablets, before the election. But even if we assume that there was indeed vote buying by the Amazonas governor who seats with the opposition, how do you know the people blackmailed into voting for you did so in the end? After all the vote is secret EVEN in Amazonas; and in other areas where the regime exerted huge pressure it lost the election anyway. For example in ALL of Caracas districts. Thus vote "buying" is no guarantee of vote "getting".

Let's go a little further in the vote buying supposition. Before you write a sentence to unseat an elected representative for Amazonas, which the TSJ just did, you need to have an investigation, possibly a trial, definitely real verifiable evidence. None of these things exist to this writing, we only have declarations of the PSUV direction with an illegal phone tapping which authenticity has yet to be established.  I will go further, you need to prove that the elected representatives actually worked directly at vote buying. It is quite conceivable that a third party with interest in the electoral result may have bought the vote behind the scenes but that is no reason to punish FIRST the elected official, without a trial, even a fake trial.

I trust that with these very simple arguments stated above it is quite clear for the reader that what is going on is a judicial coup to deny the genuine expression of the people of Venezuela in rejecting the regime. Period.

What can the opposition do?

It started by the easiest way offered by the hurried desperation of the regime: it decided to demand that the justices in charge of that sentence be declared as unfit for conflict of interests. See, one of the judges is someone who was a PSUV representative in the outgoing Assembly and was hurriedly, and illegally, appointed judge a week ago. Clearly, such a judge, member of the PSUV until a very few days ago, cannot be fair and impartial. And more like that.

The opposition has also other choices. It can go international and has already enough evidence to require that the OAS applies the sanctions previewed in its democracy chart. That is, demand that Venezuela be not recognized anymore as a functional democracy. Just with the precedent of the 18 page letter of OAS secretary Almagro it is near impossible that the regime wins its case. A letter has already been sent to various organizations.

However international help, if it comes, is slow. Meanwhile at home the choices are not as clear. The Assembly may decide to seat the questioned deputies anyway and thus enter in a direct power confrontation. The TSJ may disband the New Assembly for contempt, etc. etc......

The fact of the matter is that the regime has decided to use any way it can to annul the MUD victory. And that is that. Recent evidence? Maduro is using the remaining two days of his enabling law to dictate more control measures to limit the scope of action of the new Assembly. He also said that he could not care less about the new "burguesa" assembly, that he was going against the "capitalismo salvaje"

In case you have any doubt of the totalitarian mentality of the regime there is that clip from yesterday when on live TV a Maduro supporter said that any deserter of chavismo should be put down with a bullet though the head, gesture included. Maduro laughed and told him that such things cannot be said on live TV, which implies that off camera chavismo has no problem using violent and foul language to discuss the fate of its opponents/deserters/traitors. You can see the complete video to truly measure the nature of these people here, if your Spanish allows (the shooting gesture is clearer in the long version).



Friends, it is going to get worse before it gets better.

The priorities ahead

And thus I am on December 28 in a hurry to write something as events keep going on in Venezuela. There is no time for a holiday pause. What, with the regime's shenanigans and the opposition division and only 7 days left for the new National Assembly to be sworn in!


The regime treachery has been exposed just before Christmas and they have remained quiet since. But it is just a lull, they are surely thinking about their next step. The opposition  reacted fast, a surprise for chavismo used by Chavez to do illegal stuff during holiday breaks. More important, the recent quiet  maybe due to divisions of chavismo as one side is getting tired of the acts of a minority only interested in saving their skins. The internal crumbling cannot be hidden anymore.

On the opposition side things have not been going well. Capriles, again, shot himself in the foot which maybe be a reflection of the delusion inside his party, Primero Justicia, at being the recognized leaders of the opposition. Apparently they seem to think that MUD label votes were pretty much PJ label votes. I am not going into the stupidities of Capriles, I am through with him. Let's just say that if his strategy helped for 6D vote, his humanity and political sense are now highly questioned.

So, in face of the current situation what should the opposition do first as of January 5?

What we need to be fully aware of is that a confrontation with the regime is unavoidable. The only things to be settled are the date and intensity of the confrontation. If all goes well we can hope that such confrontation will be an electoral one, not a violent one. And we can advance the latest date for the confrontation: December 2016 when governors's term ends. Yet four other electoral confrontation are possible depending on the degree of regime's despair.

Maduro may resign. New presidential elections need to be called to complete the six years term (1). This would be the wisest for the regime, to let the opposition burn itself dealing with the economic catastrophe next year. The problem with that option (and all others for that matter) is that it gives the opposition time to investigate the wasted oil bonanza of the last decade. In fact that option may be the worst one for the regime, as the ones discussed next give them time to prepare better some form of golden exile.

Maduro is stubborn and with the help of a portion of chavismo a recall election is called. This has to take place BEFORE summer as a later date could reach the fatal 4 year mark in the term and allow chavismo to seat an appointed vice president to complete the term (article #233 of the 1999 constitution). In short if the opposition choses or has to chose that way it should be decided by May at the latest considering the economic costs and the developing economic crisis. Note that the success of this maneuver depends on the electoral participation and the ability of the opposition to campaign actively.

Referendum/referenda for constitutional amendments. This could be a compromise between the opposition, the army and a sector of chavismo. This tool (#341) can be used in many ways, to free the judicial system of political control, to diminish the presidential power, to change electoral system, to approve reforms that the regime blocks, etc... It also has the advantage that it requires a simple majority inside the opposition so divisions are possible in case a faction decides to go to the dark side (yes, I am looking forward to see the new installment of the ninenalogy). The problem with this approach is that it depends on too many variables, one if the eventual willingness of Maduro to play the game and recognize defeat, accepting to stay in office just to preserve the "Chavez legacy", whatever that may mean. In short the regime would evolve into some form of parliamentary system where cohabitation is possible, French way.

Constitutional reform/assembly. The reform (#342) is a more extreme form of the referenda discussed above. This one would be to unseat the judicial system at large, change the electoral system and reestablish a bicameral congress as a way to create a containment wall against a fast return of chavismo, undo a persistent undue military influence and obtain the reinforcement of decentralization. The constitutional assembly (#348) is the ultimate weapon of mass destruction if the judicial power in the hands of chavismo is used in excess against any opposition initiative. The problem with a constitutional assembly is that it is a bomb that can sweep away all parties as the economy degenerates. On  the other hand it can be called at any time if the opposition retains the 2/3 vote, and can be called through signature gathering process and a referendum as long as the opposition retains a working majority.

So?

The consequence of the exposed above indicates that elections are on their way and the opposition needs to get ready for it from the very start, on January 6. For this it needs to do the following actions, ALL EQUALLY IMPORTANT.

Change the composition of the CNE to gain a 3 to 2 majority inside the electoral board.
If time allows modify some key sections of the electoral law and work on gerrymandering negative effects for regional elections of December 2016.

Free political prisoners as everyone is needed on board to campaign, while annulling some of the resentment appearing due, among others, Capriles foot in mouth approach to politics.

Improve access to all parties to media, which means reform the CONATEL law that gives CONATEL too much punishing control over media, return of RCTV network, change ANTV into a true form of C-span, and more. There is no need to investigate the suspicious purchase of some media as those ones have less and less rating. Just allowing for new blood will be enough to finish off this mercenaries (I am looking at you, Universal, Ultimas Noticias, Globovision, etc...)

Change the law on the comptroller office which allows this one by fiat to bar anyone to run for election if it so pleases the regime. It is enough to demand that for barring someone to run for office a fair trial with its subsequent verdict are necessary. And make it retroactive.

And more but those ones are the crucial. The point is that all of these can be voted within three months and be made effective by June.

Of course, these must be made while the assembly attends other extremely urgent matters but nobody said that the work of the New Assembly would be easy and cool.

A sweet and sour Christmas

It is time for the annual exercice to wish the readers a happy Christmas. At least to those outside of Venezuela who have nice odds at it being happy; unless you are Venezuelans with a split family between those who stayed (had to?) behind and those who emigrated to freer skies.

Here, for the first time since December 1998, I have listened to my Christmas music collection with real feeling. Chavismo has always made its duty to spoil Christmas for all of us, including its followers who were constantly summoned for the defense of the banana republic (1).  This year is no exception as the Maduro/Cabello combo has managed to force through the nomination of political judges on December 23. And we know they are planning further moves of the judicial coup under way for next week. There is no rest for the wicked. Christmas eve for them cannot be much more than getting plastered with 18 year old Scotch that they are the lone ones to be able to afford these days.

But for the rest of us Christmas will be a tad better this year, even if food shortages and prices make hallacas difficult to come by and presents for kids will be very limited. The election result of December 6 has opened ajar the door towards better days. The road to complete freedom is still long and the road to enough prosperity to be able to reunite families is probably longer. But for the first time in years we can perceive a road.

Thus my best wishes for Christmas to the readers that have followed this blog for so long. As a gift of sorts, the lone ones that can be brought through Internet, two videos from what may be my favorite Venezuelan Christmas tunes, so different and unique from the packaged music that seems to have become the rule elsewhere.  A guitar with "Niño Lindo" and Guanaguanare with the original folk composer.



And a version with words, not necessarily the best one but there are is none on YouTube that truly satisfies me.

This Guanaguanare has a deficient sound track, sorry



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1) The 1999 Christmas was spoiled by the natural disaster of Vargas, but that year the regime did what it take to ruin Christmas absolutely by not only refusing help for the disaster but by performing its first judicial coup in between Christmas and New Year just as the country was picking pup the death toll. From there we all knew that the welfare of the people would never be the major concern of the regime: politics and power first. Always.

The now you see, now you don't see the constitutional coup {UPDATED URGENT}

Guys, this is it, the real thing. The regime cannot accept the electoral result of December 6 and has started this week to pull real moves to make sure that it keeps firmly in control of the country, or at least the essential, namely that its leadership does not go to jail (not even keep looting, there is not much left to loot...).

In short the regime is holding a coup d’état except that instead of having tanks rolling down the avenues it is packing the courts and removing representatives recently elected through that packed court. Il suffisait d'y penser (1)


The regime had been remiss in packing the high court, TSJ, a chance it would have got a couple of months ago even though it was illegal as it was at the cost of forced early retirement for the judges whose term ended soon and would be replaced by the new assembly where the regime was sure it would not get the 2/3 and not even the 3/5. For reasons that we do not know the regime did not proceed and now that it lost the election it is going full speed at it even though it is breaking all of the legal parameters that the regime set itself. Now conveniently the TSJ just issued a ruling saying that Diosdado Cabello, the outgoing Assembly chair, can do all the legal violations he is doing.

Yet there is a problem with that attempt at securing for half a decade a unanimous support for the regime at the TSJ: it is so blatantly illegal that the new assembly after some struggle could manage to revoke the new judges. It still would not be able to get a political majority in the TSJ but the mere thought of a dissident opinion is enough to send shivers through the regime spine. Remember: nobody in Venezuela recalls the last time the regime lost a case in court, and nobody has a notion that there could just be such a thing as dissenting court opinion.

Add to this that the recent arrests in Houston and Miami are promising yet more corruption revelations of such a magnitude that, well, time si running short for those who allowed it to happen here. And we can also add that the negotiations between Cuba and the US are at a standstill due to the complex electoral system of the US that makes the year before a presidential year a lost one where no controversial measures can be taken. It is likely that Raul has decided that power has to be retained at all cost so that he keeps getting his monthly allowance (2).

So the regime has decided to go in full coup mode. Today, even though the TSJ is on legal and formal holiday vacation, it reopened for a few minutes to allow the regime to send a writ to suspend at least 22 of the representatives of the opposition elected on December 6.

This is totally illegal for so many reasons...  To begin with, the recourse must be set first with the CNE, electoral board, who has to judge on the merits before it goes to the TSJ. The regime is claiming nakedly electoral fraud even though its control over the electoral system is total and the elections unfair conditions toward the opposition have been widely discussed overseas. What the regime is doing is accusing the opposition of a electoral fraud that it simply has no means to do, even if it wanted to do so; and thus the regime gets a sentence in its favor before the parties get their day in court. Etc., etc...

What the regime wants immediately? If the new assembly finally gathers on January 5 (which is yet to be seen as the Parliament seat is actually occupied by an assembly of the appointed "poder comunal" which the regime is toying with the idea of it replacing the elected assembly) it would be incomplete. Having less than a 2/3 majority the regime could even block its working by walking out and forfeiting the minimum attendance required to vote laws. Also, the opposition worried on regaining its 22 seats will not have time to investigate the Cabellos and Rincon and Ramirez of the regime. And while all of this takes place the regime can come up with more provocations making reactions to such acts an excuse to disband outright the elected assembly.

And more, but this is long enough as it is.

I think that at this point the opposition should come out explicitly announcing that it will go to the OAS and Mercosur to denounce a constitutional violation and annulment of a legitimate power, duly elected though supervision of the enemy.

This is a coup, we must call it so, in the hope (vain?) that the regime will back down from a provocation that will descend the country into chaos and will speed up the bitter end of those who seek protection though that coup. Indictments are coming in the US (and elsewhere), so the best that Cabello and his corrupt narco cohorts can hope for is to transform Venezuela into a jail from which they cannot go out. Then again they are pranes so they may be OK with it. (3)

UPDATE

We just learned that the TSJ said it has not received any writ for cancelling the election of the 22 opposition representatives?  What the f....?

Now, the curious thing is that this late the TSJ decided to reply, to say no, and to accuse the 2.0 of creating destabilizing rumors. That is, if there is no writ the TSJ could have well waited tomorrow morning, or not replied at all, or elliptically state that they were close for business until January 11 so they could not possibly have any answer. But no, they replied and took the opportunity to lance barbs at the opposition.

What happened?
The reaction may have been fast enough to the point that a few phone calls made through at Maduro's office and the order was stopped (for the time being?).
Or it is a reflection of the internecine warfare of chavismo as such a measure is bound to affect one side more than the other. The side not controlling that event put a stop to it.
Or it could be the military repeating that there is nothing to be done until January 5, that the regime needs to wait for a offense from the opposition before retaliating,  and no offense can be done until January 5).
Heck, it could even be someone at the CNE with half a brain that told them that they should let the CNE rule on that first, that they will oblige gladly but that they should have the first go to make the thing look like a valid judicial trap.
Or simply it was a mere trial to test the opposition readiness for bigger things planned.
Or a distracting tactic so people talk about that instead fo the 12 justices that will be illegally replaced.
Or a combination, or something else totally.

The only thing that is certain is that the regime is looking for ways, and looking, and looking et qui cherche trouve. (4)

Note: I had to change the title of the blog entry. The first time ever!

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1) One just had to think of it

2) Credit to Rafael Poleo of Zeta. Then again for me the case is that these people are probably not even thinking of Cuba now, just thinking as to how to save their butt. So the fortunes of Raul and Fidel are not that pressing for me right now.

3) Pran is a leader in the Venezuelan jail system. That is, a thug/mafiosi/gangster/whatever that directs his gang from inside the jail where he actually gets more protection than if he were outside the jail. Jails in Venezuela even have discos and swimming pool. You may not be able to go out (some do) but life inside is OK and through cel phones you can keep operating your racket.

4) Who seeks shall find

Left press review

On a slow Saturday night I decided to do what I have stopped doing long, long ago, to examine the misinforming to plain idiotic articles supporting the bolivarian farce. But two upset readers sent me these pieces and by sheer courtesy I read them and went ahead to comment below.

The first one is from CounterPunch. Since I do not read such pages I cannot evaluate how far left these people are. Nor I care for, taking the piece for itself as objectively as I could. It did not go far... All started well enough, pointing out the wish for the revolutionaries to fight back while acknowledging a major electoral setback. But then by the 4th large paragraph we were back in 2002... Really? It is OK that here, in Venezuela, they use that argument because they have no other one left, but overseas? Can't they afford to be a tad more creative in defending the revolutionary farce? Here the paragraph in full:

In April 2002, the U.S.-backed opposition in Venezuela staged a coup against then President Chavez in a desperate attempt to reassert their control over the country and extinguish the Bolivarian Revolution. Hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans poured into the streets of Caracas, with millions more in other parts of the country, calling for Chavez to be restored tohis rightful office, and for the coup leaders to be arrested. There was really no doubt that the U.S. was responsible for this attempt at forced regime change, with many mainstream news outlets reporting within days that high-ranking officials in the Bush administration were intimately involved in orchestrating the coup.

The US had sympathies but it was NEVER proved that the Bush administration gave a "go ahead". Apparently for the left it is absolutely impossible to conceive that actually there would be a strong popular movement against a leftist regime, a movement that does not need to be stoked on by the CIA. Sigh...  The good savage theory from the North Atlantic do-gooders....

As for the hundred of thousand in Caracas and the millions across the country, pictures please. Amazing how some urban legends that started with a small crowds of looters on Friday 12 and some protest gatherings in the name of Chavez AFTER it was becoming clear that the army may be returning Chavez to office ended up becoming throngs of freedom seeking folks who did all the work. Apparently the author was in Caracas and I wasn't.

You can gather by yourself that the rest of the piece read like an open propaganda pamphlet. No need to comment further, just to point out that the piece appeared first in Telesur. 'nuf said!

The other piece graced Huff Post, where you can find about everything if you are patient enough to set through it (I do not). It is written by Dan Kovalic who presents himself as an adjunct professor. And has his twitter avatar posing next to Chavez tombstone. So there goes academic objectivity.

At least, in a way, he is more honest: you do not need to wait for the 4th paragraph, you get it right in the face from the start.

Of course, given the fact that the opposition was able to win such an election, and that President Maduro and the PSUV are going to honor that election, is a true testament to what many of us have been saying for years -- that, despite the claims of the U.S. government and its compliant media (collectively, the U.S.), Venezuela under Chavez/Maduro governance is authentically democratic. Indeed, one of the great achievements of the Chavista revolution has been democratic reforms.

So right there you have it, before Chavez there was no democracy (how did he get elected, to begin with?). And poor Mr. Kovalic: he should have waited a few days before writing on the Huff: Maduro et al. are not "honoring" the result.

For the rest Mr. Kovalic reveals his true colors: the bolivarian farce is good and worth defending no matter what because, well, it is anti US.  Mr. Kovalic does in very broad strokes. Not for him to have read the 18 pages letter from OAS secretary exquisitely detailing all the electoral treachery BEFORE the first vote was cast. Nor for him either to take a calculator and verify that the minimum wage today in Venezuela is not even 20 USD a month and as such ALL social advances of Chavez, whatever those may be, are now voided, leaving people worse off than what they were in 1998. The rest of the note is thus quite predictable. As is predictable that both notes do not expand much on the reasons why people voted against the regime: years of waiting on line under the sun for food and medicine and sanitary items. Conditions that neither one would tolerate for a minute in the cozy countries where they live and from where it is so easy to decide what is best for Venezuela (even if it is OK to sacrifice it on the anti US altar).

The problem with people like these two authors is that debate with them is useless, It is not that they believe in what they write about, it is that they desperately want to believe. And against that, history, logic and facts are impotent.

May the dear readers do as they wish with this blog entry.

Chavismo these days illustrates very well the difference between fascism and communism

The behavior of the regime since December 6 allows us to illustrate some of the differences between fascism and communism. NOTE: they are both equally evil, just different ways to reach the final goal of a small group to control a totalitarian state.

In communist systems there is, whenever possible, great care to pretend to follow legality. There is also great care to make things appear as the expression of the majority of people. An ever growing majority, of course. The leadership maybe be filthy rich with dachas and all, but they tend to be discreet about it. The leadership also, whenever possible, brags of a certain educational level, an ideological formation according to "accredited" venues. When violence is exerted it is in the name of the people, of the state, not of the party, unless necessary. This is of course a very rough approach.

In fascistic systems legality may or may not be followed. It is optional. The word of a great leader is enough. If a majority appearance is preferable, belonging to the caste is far more important. In fact, the caste is there for the benefit of the people. The leadership maybe very rich but claims it is poor even if all appearances are to the contrary. For example, Chavez claimed that he only got his paycheck and he did not even know the amount. He did not know where his fancy tailored suites came from. In short fascist leaders have nothing, just what the people gives them for their work. Education in the leadership is irrelevant: the main and almost sole criteria for promotion is loyalty to a great leader. Between two equally sycophantic characters the educational level may or may not make a difference. And when violence is exerted, it can be exerted just for the sake of it.

This week we observed some truly fascist scenes.

The press conference of two dissenting members of chavismo, both long time ministers of Chavez, was interrupted by a violent mob because they betrayed chavismo, allegedly. The guards around did not intervene to protect them from the mob. Had it been a communist action it would have been better prepared, making sure that the accusations of betrayal included not only the party and leadership. That action was, in my book, fascist.

Since the National Assembly is lost, and by an extraordinarily wide margin, the regime simply is trying to move on by creating a parallel structure, a comunal assembly which is, well, appointed by the regime. In a communist system the National Assembly would have been voided outright BEFORE the election while the outgoing assembly reviewed the legality of the new communal assembly. In fascist system, as the Venezuelan regime has become, there is no care for legality, lip service at best, and the communal assembly is installed just because Diosdado Cabello wanted it so. It is not idle to remember that one of the most fascist acts in Cabello's history was to block access to the National Assembly during debate. Thus a group of people could go inside and break the faces of a few opposition representatives. Communism is kinder; it simply would not allow them to enter the assembly from the start. Or arrest them at home. It is much preferable in a communist system that the blood shed is as discreet as possible, no matter how copious that one may be. The people are kind, you know. In the last stages it is fascism that is kinder as it lets you die.

Even in the argumentation that the regime is clumsily advancing to void the election of the new Assembly we can detect differences.

In a communist regime great care would have been met in tying all ends to avoid a victory of the opposition. Certainly the electoral board CNE tried it so. But communism is not arrogant, just deeply self righteous. Since fascism is arrogant then there was no need for the regime to go beyond what was done in previous elections to rig them. They simply disregarded polls thinking that their pressure mechanisms would work as usual. Alas, it did not work. In its response a communist regime that would have been caught by such a mesure, like it happened in Poland, would try to remain coherent in its response, even if that response was useless in the end. See, contradicting what you said before is something that communism does not like to do, there is an ideology to follow closely at all time. But fascism has no problem to call something blue today that they called yellow yesterday. And thus we have the creator of the current CNE structure treachery apparatus, Jorge Rodriguez, sounding as if he were going to sue the CNE itself!

Amen of the outright lies. A good one was that people were misled into voting against the regime by the opposition controlled media (where? which ones?). Even in their outright lies it reeks more of fascism than communism as this one tries to make its lies viable, credible, even if it is merely through application of self righteousness.

In the past I had qualified the regime of Chavez as a cross between fascism and other stuff, due mostly to its military character. But I must confess my error. Chavismo is a fascist regime, inspired by a communist regime that has turned fascist in its day to day behavior, Cuba's Castro.

Then again this fits better. Fascism is more akin to gangster, mafia operations. And since Venezuela has become a narco state, there you go.

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PS: another thing that fascism is good at is to insult people without reason. Today's France Prime Minister's office emitted a communique praising the MUD victory, signed by Manuel Valls himself.

Maduro was in a fury even accusing Valls of being a racist (interestingly the National Front critic of Valls timeline on Tweeter sound a lot, A LOT, like chavistas). I read French. I can assure you that there is NOTHING in that communique that remotely smacks of racism.

.@NicolasMaduro trato de racista a @manuelvalls ¿No saben leer francés en @DrodriguezVen ? https://t.co/ofcgdtbkxr https://t.co/DurZI9qElb

— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) December 18, 2015

#Venezuela: Félicitations à l'opposition démocratique de @unidadvenezuela. Appel à la libération de @LeopoldoLopez. pic.twitter.com/Pmkt3OTPsH

— Manuel Valls (@manuelvalls) December 17, 2015

Somebody home?

I wonder if anyone is aware of the chasm ahead. From what I can see it would seem like no, nobody is taking notice. But then again I may be wrong. Hopefully.

Chavo-madurismo in overdrive

I write "chavo-madurismo" because including all of chavismo is not accurate at this time. There are enough voices inside chavismo that have decided to speak up and who think that genuinely and strategically it is better to acknowledge the electoral defeat and rebuild first chavismo before attempting to counter the opposition. Note: these are not democratic voices, these are people that are aware that they have lost a majority and who are simply surprised by the result and think that it is a mere historical accident and that a little bit of polish will be enough to return to full power for el pueblo.

The chavo-madurismo is as such a faction inside chavismo that has no time nor intention to change anything. Thus they are in an overdrive to conserve their power, privileges and legal immunity. The last one, legal immunity is the motor of that group (by the way, General Reverol may be officially indicted in US courts this week). Too compromised in corruption human rights violations and drug trafficking they know very well that their future will flounder fast with a mere cursory audit of their tenure in office. Thus for them it is out of question to allow that a new assembly can audit them. Period.

All what chavo-madurismo is trying to do to avoid its fate (rigging of high court, creating para legal structures and what not in the three weeks before January 5) will not stand legal review and will lead to an inevitable confrontation that will play in international arena. See, if the gained control at the National Assembly is voided by force, then it is enough for the new chair of the Assembly to demand to the OAS to apply its Democracy Chart. This time around, with heavy weights on board like Argentina, the Venezuela crisis will be made a world crisis. Add the humanitarian side and there you go.

Because while castro-chavo-madurismo fights recklessly for its survival, at all costs, this happens:

Tras la muerte de niños con Cancer este titular enajena: "Quimioterapias que trajo el gobierno son ineficaces" pic.twitter.com/qVZg9rIEJo

— Nelson Bocaranda S. (@NelsonBocaranda) December 16, 2015

The chimio treatments imported for children ARE NOT working. Anyone home to answer for that?

The opposition seems preoccupied elsewhere

While chavo-madurismo is in overdrive the opposition does not  seem in a hurry to take charge.

On one side we have a Capriles who thinks his strategy was the one that allowed the opposition to win a majority, namely that the Assembly was elected solely to solve material problems for the people. Thus he places himself squarely as the rightful spokesperson for the new majority. A strategy equally wrong since 1) the new assembly cannot be the direct actor in improving the fate of el pueblo,  the gouvernement is still in charge of that no matter what as even the new laws application will depend on the good will of the regime, 2) that even if it could do so, the solutions to be written down are not of easy or fast application, 3) not all agree in the priorities that Capriles demands and 4) his demands are possibly unrealistic in the actual context where the regime is applying brute force.

The fact of the matter is that the opposition victory is born on many parameter that include the unrest of early 2014, the discredit of the regime since the 2014 repression, the economic crisis and the protest vote as a reaction, and also the offering of Capriles. But by far not alone by the non confrontational offering of Capriles, the more so that the regime is getting into open confrontation mode.

This explain why the newly elected representatives are more worried about deciding who will chair the coming assembly, and who will hold such and such commission rather than mounting an effective platform to reply to the regime recent attacks. Never mind starting to explain to the country that there is no money for anything when there are people inside chavismo that blithely state the the new assembly will refuse to vote the constant special credits that the executive demands for its social programs.

One is also allowed to wonder whether there is somebody home in charge. Some are noticing this early absence of leadership in the opposition.

And yet the opposition immediate priorities are simple. Considering that a confrontation is inevitable the opposition must from now announce that all measures current mesures taken by the regime will be voided on day first, that the CNE renewal will be conducted immediately and that the amnesty law will be the first law voted. If the regime seeks confrontation, we will give it in our terms, in an area where the opposition is unimpeachable, at least overseas.

In short, the opposition must take a grip of the only defensive tools it can get: fair elections (if needed soon), political leaders free on the streets from jail or exile, partial recuperation of freedom of information and press. Or is it that the political agenda of people like, say, Capriles is more important than the national agenda at a time where we need to find a side that will be able to negotiate the import of food and medicine that are required in 2016 for us not suffer more than necessary?

The hysteria of Diosdado and Tarek

The stupendous defeat of the regime two Sundays ago is just starting to unleash all demons within chavismo.  There are two little items that are worth noting.


Diosdado Cabello, the outgoing chair of the National Assembly has lot of reasons to worry about the incoming Assembly. Not only he will not be enjoying the privileges associated with the position but, lord have mercy on him, he risks to have his microphone cut when he starts insulting other representatives in what he qualifies as normal debate. If that was not enough he will have as a new colleague Rafael Guzman. This Rafael was 7 years ago the guy that studied all the improprieties that Cabello did during his lone tenure as Miranda governor from where he was ignominiously booted by Capriles (and forced to return to his native Monagas).  The very substantial dossier could never receive any legal examination because no tribunal would pick up the thing to avoid offending Cabello or Chavez, but Cabello himself as of 2010 made sure that the National Assembly would not even be aware of the existence of such dossier.

Now, in prime time, Rafael Guzman will be able to broach on the matter, something that should be enough to unseat Cabello from the Assembly and to get him a seat in a jail, independently of what the US does on his likely indictment on drug trafficking.

Tarek El Aissami is the very unhappy governor of Aragua state. Not only he is in the hot list of likely DEA indictments, but his state went from overwhelmingly chavista to a clean sweep by the opposition. Three years of him as a governor were enough to transform Aragua electoral landscape even more than the crisis changed the rest of the country.

This was rendered the more humiliating as one of the chief organizer in Aragua anti Tarek movement was the mayor of a small area, the lone survivor for the opposition loss two years ago, Delson Guarate. Since major players in Aragua had been neutralized (think Richard Mardo, Maracay defenestrated representative) poor Delson had to bear the brunt of Tarek attacks, These included a now famous battle over refusing to give the district of Delson the machines that are needed to pick up the trash so that the district would be the worst of Aragua. Of course, people are not as stupid as Tarek and the PSUV think they are and two Sundays ago they let it know to Tarek that his days in Aragua were nearly over.

But Tarek will have none of it and he instead  went to ask chavismo supporters to mass in front the National Assembly on January 5 to block access to the new representatives.... Certainly, after Cabello, our boy Tarek is in the top tier of people in serious need to be investigated for anything from racketeering to drug traffic. Probably even for setting soccer game results... Nothing would too low to stop the national assembly to take its seats.