How to hold an electoral campaign under Venezuela neo-fascism?

For long time readers of this blog the title should not come as a surprise. It has been long that I have rejected the democratic pretense of the regime as well as the one coming from those that still pretend to comment "objectively" on Venezuela. That is those who try to find a fig leaf of democracy, be they foreign journalists, bloggers or actual Venezuelan journos. As far as I am concerned we are in a military regime since at least late 2010, a regime which is turning openly fascist since late 2012.  If you do not agree at least in part with me, then you have been wasting your time reading this blog.

On the fig leaf front there is an incipient electoral campaign for local elections this December. Indeed, there will be massive abuse and cheating from the regime. And yet there is little else we can do than go and vote, unless you are willing to wield your guns against the gang of thugs that hold Miraflores Palace hostage. The resolution will come only when chavismo will break up, violently, and self destruct. Perhaps sooner than later, but whatever the time frame is our participation in the election can only speed up the process.

This being said, let's look at the campaign which yesterday has taken a clearly fascist turn.  I am not using the word communist, note, because the inspiration is from Cuba and Cuba is now under an aging fascist system. True communism would have never tolerated stuff like the general prostitution of jineteras at the fake luxury sea front of Varadero. By writing this I do not intend to state that one system is better than the other, merely that their vices are not the same in their quest for totalitarian control and equal meting out of misery.

To help you understand let's start with one of the three things that happened yesterday, the minor one if you will, but one that will help you understand better what happened in Caracas.  The billboard above has showed up first yesterday in San Felipe, in at least three locations that I have noticed. It is Chavez heirs electoral strategy: Chavez. That is right, in the last 10 months Chavez heirs have NOTHING to show for their tenure so once again they resort to the only thing that has worked in the past, the image of Chavez.

The billboard deserves a speedy semantical analysis.

First, they use the "martyrdom" picture of Chavez, in his last 2012 campaign appearance, when he stood under the rain to inspire pity and maximize his appeal. His Che moment of sorts though it probably cost him a few days of life which I am sure he did not mind paying in his narcissistic egotism.

Second, it is addressed to ¡CHAVISTAS! Not you or me. They are not trying to get new votes due to their track record. They know better: they need to motivate the chavista lumpen that has been battered by inflation, scarcity, crime, lack of jobs, etc... to go and vote for them yet one more time.  And thus the second line: to honor Chavez memory. Period. No other argument.

Third, since there is nothing positive to run on, there is the need to make a crass appeal to war, battles, heroism and what not, Chavez style again. And thus the slogan, "Unity, fighting, battles and victory!" empty, devoid of any single new idea. Very fascist if you ask me, where what passes as ideas are artificial constructs designed to polarize society in order not to discuss what could be the true solutions to our real problems.  Or rather, since this is Venezuela, a banal but vicious thugocracy that uses selected simple minded fascisto/communist methods to hold to power so as to avoid the jail they deserve.

The bottom is the Warholian take on Chavez eyes and the party colors to suggest mass and unity (GPP, Great Patriotic Pole). Fluff!

When a "poltical" group has reached such depth of intellectual emptiness you cannot be surprised by the visceral moves they took yesterday.

The first one was a very clumsy attempt by foreign minister Jaua who pretends to be the true governor of Miranda. For memory, defeated by Capriles last December in spite of all the electoral abuse and blackmail and cheating, the regime named him special agent for the Tuy valley of Miranda which meant that he became an appointed parallel governor, probably with more money than Capriles to rule effectively the state that duly voted for him. Again, a neo-totalitarian contempt for democracy.

Sure enough siphoning money from one side to buy votes on the other created financial havoc and the Miranda workers decided to march in protest to force the central government to give Miranda its full share of the budget. Everybody knows of course that the regime will pinch every single penny it can against Capriles even if hardship for innocent follows. When you play dirty it helps not to have a bit of scruples.  So Jaua started an infantile blockade of Caracas access through a pretend pro chavista protest against the "fascist" "coup mongering" march of Capriles.  It was so clumsy that within a couple of hours it seems that Jaua was brought back to heel and the marchers could go present their demands.

That chavista fiasco was accompanied by yet a new scale up of the rhetoric. While Caracas was blockaded for a few hours somebody started placarding the posters below.

Memorize their faces
The trilogy of evil
They take away your light
They take away your food
They take away your peace
Enough violence

Now, this is extremely grave because it calls for the public lynching of the three top opposition politicians today: Capriles, Lopez and Machado.  Any crazed chavista can feel that if he were to kill, or at least hurt one of them, he would not be punished.  And even if we assume that a lose canon took such an mistaken initiative with these posters of hate, there is a video that clearly shows that Maduro is responsible, the inspiration (at the end of this post).

What these posters do, besides trying to imitate horror show aesthetic with the faces of the three, in particular the one of Capriles, is to place the blame for the current economic crisis on them.  That is, a regime that controls everything, from the armed forces to any office regulating production claims that the three guys are able on their own to turn off the power grids of Venezuela, disrupt the general food distribution system, create the high criminal insecurity.

That is exactly what the Nazis did against the Jews after 1933.





Maduro encouraging public violence against opposition leadership. He uses the words "pueblo reconocelos" (9 sec) "trilogia del mal" (4 sec) "enemigos de la patria" (6 sec)

A Eduardo Samán hay que responder, aunque sea inútil

Eduardo Samán, auto-proclamado radical en la defensas de los consumidores y la robolución revolución, no se le contesta como se debe. Claro, sus palabras son burradas que la mayoría de la gente entiende como tal, pero eso no impide que su repetición continua tenga mella en el ánimo de muchos, agregando consecuencias negativas para un futuro cada vez mas cercano. Es que cuando un tipo del talante de Samán dice cosas como “Los asalariados y los capitalistas, que se roban el trabajo de los primeros” se puede esperar cualquier cosa. ¿Se dará cuenta el pobre hombre como nos revela su pensamiento arcaico con esas palabras? Y ni hablemos de la confesión de partes que a pesar de 15 años en el poder sus amiguitos no han podido parar dicho robo (que sea dicho parece que ocurre en peores circunstancias en las empresas donde el estado es el "capitalista", el patrono, que roba más que cualquier empresario se atrevería a robar).

Lo que hay que contestar hoy en especifico es su entrevista en YVKE como esta reseña breve por El Universal (no conseguí el enlace YVKE).


Lo que ofende más en esa entrevista de Samán no es de acusar a los productores de bajar la producción adrede, es la ignorancia de Eduardo Samán. Si, se entiende que el cumple su trabajo y que ese trabajo es en gran parte echarle la culpa de la incompetencia del gobierno a quien sea que se le pueda culpar. Pero es que Samán no puede ser tan ignorante. ¿Lo será?  Por si acaso sigo con las causas de la baja producción.

Señor Samán, ¿sabe usted que?:

- CADIVI, MILCO y otros no aprueban con la celeridad requerida los dolares para importación de materia prima que se requiere para manufacturar alimentos para consumo humano en Venezuela. ¿Lo ha investigado la agencia que usted dirige?

- Los puertos están colapsados y uno se demora semanas y meses en recibir sus importaciones de materia prima e insumos de producción. ¿Lo ha investigado INDEPABIS?

- Los productores de insumos para la producción de alimentos dentro de Venezuela no pueden a veces producir la cantidad necesaria, ni la calidad requerida, lo que implica que sus clientes, productores conscientes de alimentos, no pueden producir y menos aumentar su producción. ¿Lo ha investigado su despacho?

- Lo que el productor importó en 2012 a una tasa de cambio de 4,3 solamente se le empezó a liquidar en el 2013 después de la devaluación a 6,3. O sea, el productor compro a 4,3 pero esta obligado retroactivamente a pagar a 6,3. Obviamente ese robo perpetrado por el gobierno tiene que pasar en costo al consumidor final ya que si el productor absorbiese ese costo por si solo quebraría. ¿Lo entiende INDEPABIS? (De paso, eso es lo que pasa con las lineas aéreas extranjeras a quien se le paga, si se le paga, los boletos del 2012 en el 2013 a 6,3; es por eso que sabiendo que viene otra devaluación, y otro robo del gobierno contra ellos, cobran la tarifa plena sin descuentos para protegerse; ¿o es que usted cree que mantener aviones es gratis?).

- La LOTTTTTTTTT  cayo en el peor momento económico, cuando se da todo lo que se describe arriba y que la ley hace imposible modificar la fuerza laboral según la capacidad de producción de las empresas. Es por eso que no han contratado, pero NO es por eso que la producción no ha subido. ¿Lo entenderá la agencia que usted dirige?

- Usted acusa FEDECAMARAS de querer tumbar al gobierno. Si en algo han sido exitosos INDEPABIS y demás agencias represivas del gobierno es en debilitar el sector privado en estos años. Yo le puedo garantizar que si ocurriese que efectivamente en un supuesto FEDECAMARAS estuviese unánime en un deseo de tumbar a balurdos como usted de los puestos que ocupan, no está FEDECAMARAS, ni de lejos, en posición de hacerlo. La situación de FEDECAMARAS no es ni remotamente comparable a lo que era en 2002. ¿O es que usted y INDEPABIS todavía se creen en 1998?

Finalmente, usted insulta al gentilicio de nuestro país cuando usted temerariamente dice que los productores echan "los productos al suelo para que la gente se tenga que matar por agarrar los alimentos".

Primero, si es posible que algún bodeguero obstinado haya tirado un saco de harina PAN al piso para sacudirse a la gente que le trancaba la entrada de su bodega, eso no es cierto para los productores y comerciantes que somos y respetamos el producto de nuestro trabajo. ¿Ha producido usted alguna vez algo de valor comercial con sus propias manos? ¿Cree usted en verdad que lo que me costó tanto producir lo voy a tirar al piso para humillar a mis clientes? ¿En que universo desquiciado vive usted?

Segundo, el que lanzo esa moda de tirarle cosas a la gente amontonada es el "gigante eterno" que con sus inventos de bolsas de Mercal gratis, su repartidera de cerveza en las marchas oficialistas, su agarradera de papelitos que le daba la gente desesperada, ha convertido este tipo de humillación al pueblo en la norma revolucionaria que a usted ahora parece ofender cuando algún portugués o chino se la aplique a algunos. Sepa usted, lo que sabría si usted se calase las colas de los productos escasos, que los alimentos no se tiran al piso, se ofrecen directamente en las paletas que llegan para acelerar la distribución a la gente desesperada por horas de cola al sol. ¿O es que usted pretende que esa pobre gente pasa media hora mas de sol mientras se decoren los anaqueles para que puedan por fin comprar?

Yo se muy bien que su mente trancada no esta en capacidad de entender lo que escribo arriba, asumiendo que mis palabras lleguen algún día a su escritorio. Pero me conformo dejando por escrito aquí la constancia de que usted es un fraude.
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Post Data.
Hoy pase por el Makro de San Felipe donde como se acostumbra casi cada día, hay una cola (ver foto anterior).  Hoy había llegado leche, me informaron. Y efectivamente vi gente que salia con bolsas de latas de leche.  Enséñenos Señor Saman adonde tiran la leche en el piso.

Chávez siempre fue un reaccionario

Siempre pensé que la seudo revolución bolivariana era en el fondo un movimiento reaccionario. No me esperaba encontrar en el aeropuerto de Valencia una prueba clara y sencilla.

Reza esa propaganda, abusiva, en el área de registro del aeropuerto de Valencia, por si no lo leen claro:

"Tenemos que terminar

de borrar las formulas extrañas

a nosotros mismos y buscar

los códigos de nuestro

pensamiento más antiguo".

Nada mas elocuente para definir lo reaccionario de la mente de Hugo Chávez, y lo anacrónico de la embustera revolución bolivariana que ha terminado, por supuesto, en un desastre de corrupción, ineptitud e inmoralidad profunda. Con bases ideológicas como la frase citada, ¿que se podía esperar?

Podríamos escribir tratados sobre tan tamaña babosidad o cursileria como prefiera usted calificarlo. Podríamos imaginar la mente del responsable que escogió esa frase del "gigante" en vez de otra algo menos ridícula. Podríamos preocuparnos que muchos piensen que en verdad eso fue un pensamiento profundo, digno de presentarse a cualquier viajero que embarca en el aeropuerto Santos Michelena de Valencia (si es que no le cambian el nombre algún día por algo menos elitesco, mas revolucionario).  Pero mas bien no, vayamos al grano.

Primero, que es eso de "nuestro pensamiento mas antiguo". ¿El de los indios en guayuco que desconocían la escritura? ¿Tenían los mismos "códigos" los Cumanagotos, los Caracas, los Timotocuicas?

¿Y que se entiende por códigos? ¿Eran las sociedades pre colombinas sociedades de códigos rígidos como los quiso implantar Chávez?

¿Cuales son las "formulas extrañas a nosotros mismos"? ¿Las de los esclavos importando cultos africanos? ?¿Los españoles y su Inquisición que tanto quisiera repetir la revolución fea? ¿Marxismo, capitalismo, democracia, caudillismo, federalismo, liberalismo amarillo o del color que sea? ¿Quien decide?

"Terminar de borrar". ¿O sea el tipo ya decidió por su cuenta empezar a borrar lo que le conviene borrar? Claro esta, ya sabemos que Hugo estaba en eso, que paso bastante tiempo reescribiendo la historia de Venezuela. Lo que leemos hoy es una confesión de parte de que hay que borrar los hechos que no gustan. Así, sin discusión, cuando se le ocurría.

Lo que Chávez siempre quiso fue volver al pasado, no el de los indígenas, no el de los conquistadores, no el de los esclavos, no el de la colonia, ni siquiera el de la independencia que también trato de apropiarse al no poder repetirlo, y menos de entenderlo. Hugo quería volver al pasado de los caudillos, donde el, jefe de una montonera del siglo XIX, fuese capaz de hacerse del poder, guardárselo y convencer que a la gente que el era lo mejor, que había que quererlo, aunque sea a planazos.

Chávez fue un reaccionario de lo peor que pasó en nuestra historia. Todos los "códigos" que ha querido borrar son los que han hecho el país, para que volvamos a ser una comarca de esclavos consintientes del caudillo.

On m'élit roi, mon peuple m'aime.

Waiting for your bags in Valencia

I am back home and I wanted to finish my little chronicles of a holiday that was not.


I witnessed prices changing within 48 hours, in particular on booze, some of it going up 30% between two visits. I witnessed a huge line forming within minutes of the arrival of milk at Sigo, one of the main grocery stores at Pampatar. I saw beggars and other victims when one is supposed that there are plenty of "misiones" to take care of these poor wretches. I endured traffic jams like I have to suffer in Caracas or Valencia. Well, not as bad but way too bad for what is after all a small island. Everywhere potholes, dirt, anarchy. I had to live through hotel rooms barely cleaned, with wash hands and showers with poor drainage. No wonder that the only tourists still seen in Margarita, besides the Venezuelans that cannot go anywhere else are a multilatin chusma crowd. Hard cash tourists nowhere to be seen.

To top it off, on my return to Valencia the huge posters of the baggage claim section reminded us clearly who is responsible for that clogged sinkhole Venezuela has become.  I am leaving you with the pictures of "The Giant", Hugo Chavez, the destroyer of the country harassing us even after his death....

I felt  under surveillance.....

Maduro in little, Chavez in big.....

To understand how degraded Venezuela is, travel by plane....

Registration under Chavez

I left for a short holiday to Margarita and truly, it is an awesome experience. Not for the adventure, good food, beautiful scenery, but for the lousy service, the degraded infrastructure, the lack of basic items such as milk....  So there, a little summary.

It all started with the difficulty in finding a plane ticket. In Venezuela now, if you want to have a choice of travel dates, you need to buy a month ahead, even in low season, which is my case. By trying to get my ticket with barely three weeks notice, I could not find the adequate dates and I lost one day of my "package" while having to pay the full price anyway.  Not to mention the aggravation of useless web pages of Venezuelan airline companies which forced me in the end to go to an agency....

Proof that Chavez was a reactionary

But I got my ticket and on the set day I went to Valencia to take my flight.  To decorate this entry I have a collection of the airport political propaganda that I had to endure while at the airport: I had to be there two hours earlier to make sure I would not be bumped for a "waiting list" and my flight was 1 hour and a half late without any explanation. Click the pictures to enlarge for details.


The wait was made heavy because there is no relief from propaganda.  Everywhere, from the registration desk to the bathroom entry there is some large expensive poster with Chavez, Chavez thoughts, Chavez battalion uniform, and one, for Maduro and his 12 step program....

gate entertainment

Waiting at the gate

I was asked to go through security at the accorded time. So the wait was at the gate area, boring, drab, announcing a WiFi that did not work, with a TV screen stuck on VTV, the state propaganda network. The program went back and forth between the only worthy news of the day for the regime, which was an electoral rehearsal for next December, and old speeches of Chavez that are broadcast all the time..... Fortunately the sound was set so low that the AC noise was enough to cover the TV noise.

Eventually, my flight arrived. The last passenger had barely descended the plane that we started boarding. Meaning? There was no time to clean the plane or its toilets. So I tried not to look where I sat and certainly did not even consider going to the john...

Maduro's 12 step....

When you arrive in Margarita you check as if you were arriving to some international airport immigration: you need to have your finger print taken and show your national ID. Supposedly it is to check for eventual delinquents and protect tourists and avoid drug trafficking. But delinquents can rent a boat on mainland and in barely one hour can land discretely in Margarita...  Never mind that in Caracas airport it is not that difficult to hide 1.3 tons of cocaine in regular scheduled international flights. Thus having my finger print taken was not reassuring whatsoever, just another waste of time (you have to stand in line), just another aggravation.

Anyway, I got into my taxi on my way to the hotel. I confirmed my observations from my last visits: taxis are getting jalopier by the day. The lack of spare parts is taking its toll and in one of the several taxis I took I was wondering how long it would take for the motor to explode....

Chavez waits for you on the
way to the rest rooms

The usual hotel I stay in keeps degrading. Now they do not even bother taking your credit card voucher for expenses if you do not take the package. Either you take the full package or you pay as you go.  Too many people bailing out of their bills.  With the end of luxury tourism in Margarita  now we get cheap mass tourism service whether we have the means to indulge on occasional fake luxury. Let's not forget that luxury tourism is the tax source to pay for services for all type of concurring tourism activities: you are not going to pay for beautifying Margarita with the tax income from youth hostels. Luxury, and even not so luxury tourism is gone from Margarita because of insecurity, lack of amenities, degradation of the free trade zone, extinction of casinos, dirt, ill service, etc...  People have much better places to go than Margarita where to spend their hard earned tourism dollars.

Chavez battalion hymn,
gate entrance....

Next day I hit the beach. The upkeep is lousy.  Until last year there was some effort to pick up the garbage that comes drifting, or left shamelessly by visitors. Whether they are still doing it, they have got less efficient at it.

I think I'll stop before I get bitter and I ruin my last hours...  But there are reasons as to why tourism is degrading so much, besides being forced to contemplate for hours propaganda in waiting rooms. For example let me tell you why air travel is so bad now.

For years the regime has refused to give enough dollars to the airline companies to buy planes and spare parts. At the same time it blocks ticket prices and does not provide adequately for airport services.  With time airlines have to cut down on service, jam their airplanes with fixed prices fares so that at least they manage to stay even, at best. I fear to think about the security of these planes....

And Izarra, the tourism minister, former propaganda minister, claims that if there are not many tourists coming to Venezuela, it is due to people like me writing ill of Venezuelan conditions. Yeah, right.....

PS: reading the paper I find out that Giusti had a much harder a time at Caracas airport to go to Margarita than I had travelling from Valencia....

A month and a half to play it out in Venezuela

For some, the local elections of December 8 are the last horizon. Crossing it successfully will mean the end of chavismo, at least as we have known it. For others all will be played as soon as the Enabling Law is published. Some think that a popular uprising is around the corner. Some think that it is all over. All are wrong, on these and other suppositions. That does not make me right because, well, I actually have no position. So, instead of trying to figure out a way out of this mess I should limit myself to try to evaluate the current situation. May the reader think whatever s/he pleases.

The almost daily morning line at Makro San Felipe. It is under the sun, people now carry umbrellas rain or shine.
This a short one. Sometimes it is 4X longer, reaching the main avenue downhill.
It is not the only line in San Felipe, but it is probably the most recurrent because Makro always get some item.

Whatever one thinks, one thing is certain, the next couple of months are decisive. Even if you think all has been played out, the coming weeks will decide the extent of the economic crisis and the extent of the repression we must suffer through 2014.


The general context is not too complicated, once you think about it. Chavismo is trying to resolve its internal wars and as such can only agree on the need to silence the opposition. The economic crisis deepens and the regime is unable to come to grips with it, and even less to find a faint solution. It seems that in spite of all of its efforts it cannot replicate previous election miracles of keeping the shelves full for at least the two months before the election so that people forget previous food shortages. But even if the regime were able to put food back on the shelves, the annual inflation for food items alone is around 70% so people will be displeased anyway.  Basically all economic indicators are going red. I am at ground zero and I can assure you that every day it gets more and more difficult to produce anything, ship it, cash it, replenish stocks, meet payroll. I have had to resort to barter with my competition for raw material so we both do not go under.....

In this context chavismo has decided that the December vote is lost and that their hope is the Enabling Law. Through it, it will be able to produce yet more controls certain to fail, settle issues within chavismo that cannot be settled, make a mockery of the December electoral result though new measures to promote "comunas" that will destroy the influence of mayors and local councils soon to reach the opposition hands; and for good measure start jailing a few opposition leaders. Maduro has already singled out Capriles and Lopez, has accused Machado to be the chosen head of an interim regime, which guarantees that she will be cell mate of the first two. And we cannot discard that some last minute commotion will be generated so that elections are "postponed". Already the lengthy list of missed deadlines by electoral authorities, CNE, seem to indicate that they know this will be the case.

The regime is so decided to pass the Enabling Law that it has already started illegal repressive measures against two opposition representatives to remove them from the Assembly and secure a 99 votes vote. Be it in Spain or in Argentina, nobody is fooled: the high court, TSJ, is clearing the way for the regime to approve an unconstitutional law. And yet it may not be enough. The nervousness of Maduro is palpable. He has stopped travelling outside the country, missing the IberoAmerican summit in Panama which would have been crucial to reinforce his international legitimacy. He spends an inordinate amount of time in military barracks, convincing the army of his authority. Not that there is a coup in the making, the military is too fat and too corrupt. What the military wants is a regime able to solve pressing problems, that can avoid a social crisis because the Venezuelan army is no mood to stain its hand in blood for the sake of Maduro and his Cuban masters. Times have changed and they want to be able to travel freely to enjoy their riches acquired through Chavez buy out of the nation's integrity. It is not far-fetched to think that the army wants to retain the power that it enjoys today but through a more capable president than Maduro, a better covering fig leaf for our lack of democracy.

The opposition seems hypnotized by the prospect of the Enabling Law. Some like Maria Corina Machado want an all out defense, at all cost. Some like Capriles and the MUD do not seem to be overly concerned, so certain they are their strategy of winning on December 8. An OpEd person was right in pointing out that when Capriles says he would not recognize a law voted by less 99 he implicitly admitted that as long as the 99 magical number of Assembly votes is reached, even through coaxing and blackmail, he would accept it. His response should have been sterner and once again Capriles projects a wishy washy image that diminish his leadership in a time when clear answers and positions are required.

All in all the opposition seems to have been on the wait since last April. The decline of the country is a given and indeed in a sense it makes sense to wait for Gotterdamerung. But it should also be clear that the regime will not fall on its own, and certainly cannot be left alone to the military and the narco-generals to decide what to do with it. The opposition has a real risk to be irrelevant in the transition for its apparent lack of ideas and distaste for real confrontation.

It is not a matter of communication, of having lost the last critical TV network available, Globovision. The reality of inflation and food shortages is an ever present element of our lives, reminding people that this is not normal and that before Chavez we never had such an episode of recurring shortages. Also, that the opposition is silenced has the unwanted paradox that even the average chavista turns off official news: once the excitement of the insulting match is limited to one side, why bother? The problem of the opposition is that one starts to wonder whether it wants to reach high office, truly.

The lack of airwaves media has had a positive effect on the opposition. Coupled to local elections which take cohorts of candidates stomping the voting grounds, they are making much better and direct the contact with the crowds at a time where the chavista paid electoral help have no explications for the shortages except the ritual ones that have ceased to convince.  When you stand for hours at the Makro of San Felipe, for hours, for at most 4 kilos of corn flour, and repeat next week, you may actually start wanting to see those dangerous marines to come. It cannot be worse than that these never ending lines..... And they will have dollars in their pockets, you know!

Whether we go to vote on December 8, whether we actually win, we may see this December as the final generational shift we have been waiting. Inside chavismo the "revolutionary" oldies will be confronted with the new base that was shunted in the candidate nomination process and that may be the single most important element in the electoral loss of chavismo in December. The silenced rank and filed chavista may actually be more democrat than the ones at the reins today, and as upset by the airwaves censorship as the opposition folks. Let's not forget that the official message does not reach much the hoi polloi since it is concerned more in glorifying Maduro than announcing real improvements in el pueblo situation. Constant propaganda has its limits.

For the opposition the generational shift is coming, even more if we have elections. There should be at least 50 new mayors and scores of new municipal council folks that have never held and elected office. It is quite possible that when the tallies are in at least half of the opposition new officials will be newbies, that developed their career skills under chavismo, that have just won their very first public office. And even many of those in charge today were unknowns in 1998. After December 8 the leadership of Capriles and the MUD will face a fresh new challenge just when it may have to get ready to assist the end of Maduro......

That is why I do not know what is going to happen exactly but why I truly think that the next two months are really going to be the real hinge between the Chavez era and whatever comes next. 2013 will have thus been the mere set up for the times to come, the necessary time to start forgetting the reality of Chavez, to learn for both sides that it is time to take back in our hands our destiny, or give up on it, as the case may be. 2013 was not a transition, it was an end. Transition is only starting, finally.

A disabling enabling law

Certainly, that the Maduro's enabling law was presented yesterday officially does not mean that it will be approved and that even if it is approved a predictable Armageddon will follow. The outrage yesterday is that when a regime decides to roll the dice with such a law it means that we are in dire straits, that its ability to run the country is on the skids.

Will that change this week?

There is a difference between this enabling law and the ones passed before, or even the attempt at constitutional change sought in 2007. These previous attempts were at least supported by the clear preference of the country for Chavez, for whatever misguided love his voters had for him. Also their scope was less ambitious in that Chavez sought to control specifics (or all in 2007 but at least it was through a constitutional reform submitted to popular vote).  What we got yesterday was the declared intention of the regime to control all of the economic aspects of the country and, through them, our private lives. Fascism or Communism, your choice, there are both of these elements in the brief proposal submitted yesterday.


By submitting such an unconstitutional law, and worse, simply an improper law, the regime has rolled the dice and called for an open, unavoidable, political crisis. The reasons are a dropping popularity, a misfit president with Maduro, a camarilla of desperate people afraid to lose their privileges and go to jail after a regime change. And more that we have discussed in the past. What is more interesting today is to see the possible scenarios. With the pathological secretiveness of the regime coupled with constant disinformation leaks, we cannot foresee any specific one. But we can draw general consequences.

The easiest, in a way, scenario to imagine is that the law does not pass. The regime needs 99 votes and it has only 98 "certain". The thing here that could bring an unexpected surprise is that the enabling law can be, and would be used to purge chavismo rank and file as needed. As such we can be sure that more than one chavista representative is secretly wondering what is the worse fate for him/her: to vote against or to vote for. Voting against makes you a pariah, maybe, inside chavismo but gives enough time to resign, pack your stuff and leave the country if needed. Voting for it means that suddenly some day you can be thrown speedily to the wolves when needed, just as it happened last week with Valencia mayor, Parra, and his family.

This possibility, not to be discarded, would be a major setback for Maduro, make the division inside chavismo wide open which is all but certain to provoke the departure of Maduro in a matter of months. We do not know what would replace Maduro, from fair elections to open military regime, but such a political defeat coupled to his very questionable legitimacy would make his position unsustainable.

The scenario of approval are two, depending on how the law is approved.

If the regime cannot find inside the opposition that 99th vote, it may be tempted to pass the law anyway though the help of the high court which is now used to violate the 1999 Constitution as needed. The high court could either remove representatives on any pretext or even "interpret" constitutional requirement. It does not matter, a political crisis would follow. Capriles is already on record saying that if the enabling law is not voted according to the Constitution he will not recognize it. And we can be sure that he will not be alone as one objective of the enabling law is to destroy the current opposition structure. If the chavista regime were to pass illegally the enabling law it would mean that they are also doing a final coup, they will have no other choice. The opposition leadership will be cornered and forced to take a stand.

The regime may also find that mysterious 99th vote. It has been at work on that for months now, blackmailing and bribing as many representatives as possible. They may yet succeed though so far it does not seem to be the case. But if indeed suddenly an additional opposition representative were to go to the dark side the "victory" would be an empty one. A political crisis would also follow in this scenario but it will operate in two times. At first, there may be a rather small political crisis inside the opposition since the betrayal may lead a handful more representatives to feel lost in the dictatorship and seek some accommodation.

But as the regime starts publishing the laws derived from the enabling law, chavismo will go into purge mode as the conflict between Maduro and Cabello, the radicals and the pragmatists will have to be played out, each side trying to take advantage of the splinter opposition. Or not, it does not matter. Chavismo owes its current façade of unity to the unified opposition which slow but continuous grow scares the heirs of Chavez. The paradox of an Enabling Law victory through dividing the opposition is that this could speed up the break down of chavismo.

As the "debate" starts in the Assembly for the dictatorship law we can only be pessimistic. Corruption and the economic crisis will not be solved though that law because the only thing it will do is exacerbate the economic control system, held by the same people who have proven their disregard for economic realities in the last decade and a half. The Venezuelan currency went from 500 to 50,000 for a US dollar, no more comments are needed to prove that point. Unfortunately the other aspect of the enabling law that some people on each side wish for, to postpone a political crisis, will not work either as described above.

The enabling law will accelerate the economic and political crises, whether it passes, whether it is applied if it passes.
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Notes

The Enabling Law of Maduro, as justified by chavismo, is not justifiable.  All the laws necessary for the objectives searched are in the books already or could be voted by the comfortable majority that chavismo holds in parliament courtesy of the obscene gerrymandering of 2010 election. The problem for chavismo is that some of the laws needed to either control the economy or make it more manageable, more pragmatical, could not find a consensus inside chavismo if they were to be discussed. By imposing them from above it is supposed to spare chavismo from potential divisions. At the price of democracy of course, but these people never were democrats.

Without entering into dramatic major conspiracy theories about chavismo putting up big brother screens in our homes courtesy of the enabling law, we can observe cynically that the enabling laws seeks strict control of opposition political parties finances. Even though chavismo abuses the money of the states for its campaigns, and has severely limited access to opposition candidate sin the media, the disastrous economy keeps strengthening the opposition. The only way left for chavismo to control the opposition, short of putting them into concentration camp, it to make it impossible to find electoral financing. That can only push the opposition, AND dissident chavismo toward violence.

Corruption has so corroded chavismo, has created so many groups wanting their share that the only way the regime can find to control and to spread around the money to its true supporters is to make all currency managed directly by a political group inside the presidential palace. The enabling law does offer that possibility. Increased corruption is certain because now all importations would be made in theory through the regime which will sell to the private sector, forbidding them to do their own timely purchases overseas. That the economy will be pushed fast to a standstill is not a problem for the regime, what they want is to centralize all the commissions gained though imports at favorable currency exchanges.

The three notes above will have devastating effects fast, something that chavismo in its ideological arrogance is unable to perceive. And thus once the "noble" objectives fail, within 6 months at most, the enabling law will still be running long enough to start emitting the repressive laws that will invade our private lives.

The repressive, dictatorship consecrating, enabling law is out

Original

So, after much, much hot air the regime had to show the enabling law it wants for Maduro to become a full time dictator. It does not matter whether the unconstitutional project is to silence the opposition or to purge the ranks of chavismo of its undesirable elements (they are all undesirable but apparently there are gradations within chavismo). The fact of the matter is that chavismo does not want its bankrupt regime to be discussed either on the air waves, or the newspapers and even less at the Nazional Assembly (yes, I am retaking the "Nazional Assembly" moniker because after this re-edition of Ermächtigungsgesetz the next step is our own version of Nuremberg Laws which the projected enabling law contemplates as an extension of our very own Tascon list).


The excuse the government offered is that there is a need to fight corruption and to face down a severe economic crisis. But the solution offered by this enabling law is to silence the opposition, find corruption there and among some token chavistas for good measure, more to make room for other corrupt chavista officials rather than any good intention.  The economic measures are fake ones as a regime whose currency went from 500 to a dollar to 50,000 to a dollar in 14 years has no credibility anymore on this respect. Amen of an inflation currently at 50% annual. As long as the perpetrators of this economic disaster remain in office no enabling law of any type will solve the problems. This is not a matter of laws, it is a matter of personnel.

80 years later copy

To illustrate the above, I will let you know what each item of the law truly means. The law is rather short, and curiously the Hitler one was very short too, and also 4 articles both. Some coincidences are too amazing to pass over.

Article 1, part 1, is supposedly to fight corruption.

Item 1-A states that the law wants to rebuild the morality of public administration and orient it to socialist values.  We are not far from official segregation, Nuremberg style.

Items 1-B and 1-C give the executive power of the country right to create mew types of crimes and fix the sanctions. See above.

Item 1-D, just as Hitler's article 4 was, allows the regime to take the international measures it sees fit, which basically means expropriate whatever foreign companies own here.

1-E is to make sure opposition parties cannot find electoral financing.

Items 1-F through 1-H are to give the government sole control on any foreign currency in the country.

Part 2 leads to the economic items.

Item 2-A basically gives the regime leeway to get rid of trade unions and contracting. That is, the trade unions of state companies that protest because the regime does not fulfill its obligations will be shut down.

Items 1-B through 1-E give the regime the power to intervene at will any aspect of economic activity, deciding what is done and by whom.  Item 1-F, the last one, is in fact a veiled disguise that expropriations will now proceed without compensations since it will be "to guarantee the right of the people to have goods and services, safe, of quality and just price".  This is impossible to achieve unless you force producers to sell at a loss if necessary, or expropriate them without the burden of owing the value of the property.

Article 2 is the nail in the coffin of private enterprise and freedom because Maduro will in fact have the right to qualify a law "organica", which in Venezuelan law means it can only be changed with a 2/3 majority in the parliament. The absurdity and unconstitutional nature of this provision is obvious since the parliament will not have a 2/3 vote for approving this law and yet Maduro will enact laws as if they got the 2/3 vote.

Now, does anyone still think we are not in a dictatorship?

You are of course all welcome to find the adequate parallels to any enabling law or repressive totalitarian regime of your preference.

Carta abierta al cobarde de Diosdado Cabello

El dedo del odio

Diosdado Cabello, lo trato de usted porque quiero que me extienda la misma cortesía en caso de que se atreva a contestar esta carta. Lo que dudo porque los cobardes raras veces contestan argumentos. Observe también que no voy a usar ningún otro calificativo en esta carta ya que con cobarde basta y sobra para describirlo.

Le escribo hoy porque termino de leer, asombrado, que usted no va a permitir que nadie de la oposición participe en la comisión parlamentaria que estudiará la propuesta de ley habilitante que presentó Nicolas Maduro; presidente sin legitimidad para solicitar tal ley, sea dicho de paso.


Definitivamente usted mató toda posibilidad de dialogo en la Asamblea Nacional, y eso porque usted es un cobarde y no puede soportar confrontación directa, no puede soportar que alguien le sostenga un espejo para que usted se vea en su mediocridad. Ejemplos de su miedo e intolerancia abundan. Ejemplos donde usted manda a otros a cometer sus fechorías abundan. Si el mas notorio fue cuando usted mando a sus secuaces a romper la nariz a una mujer, el mas grotesco hasta ahora fue usted agitando un dedito en contra de un diputado, escondido usted detrás de la espalda del presidente leyendo un discurso.

Usted es un cobarde porque hace que la justicia lo proteja de todas las acusaciones de corrupción que rondan su estadía en la gobernación de Miranda mientras usted no tiene reparos en usar su posición desde la presidencia de la asamblea apara mandar a quien sea a acusar otros por crímenes, que si fuesen ciertos, son una nimiedad comparado a los crímenes de los cuales usted se esconde. Y remata con comentaristas desprestigiados que lo defiendan nada mas que en El Universal, ya que usted no se enfrenta con ningún periodista serio.

Creo que es verdad que los fascistas son mas cobardes que los comunistas. Usted lo demuestra a diario. Cuando se murió Hugo Chávez la gente debatía si era mejor estar con usted o con Nicolas. En aquellos días no me importaba, cualquiera de los dos era igual de malo, igual de incompetente, igual de moralmente corrupto. Pero debo reconocer que hoy en día no pienso lo mismo. Nicolas Maduro es un desastre pero estoy seguro que si usted lograse llegar al sillón de Miraflores usted seria peor, mucho peor. No se si la habilitante también sirva para que Maduro y los cubanos se sacudan de su torpe presencia. Pero si fuese el caso, que la usen para salir de usted, entonces tal vez valdría la pena que se apruebe esa habilitante. Dudo que muchos lloren su partida. Ni siquiera los boliburgueses que solo aman su dinero malhabido y que serán los primeros a tirarlo al pajonal antes de que pueda chantajearlos para que lo defiendan.

Maria Corina Machado to the front line?

It has been a good weekend for Maria Corina Machado, if you call notoriety good in times of crisis and repression. Suddenly she is top billing above Capriles in Maduro's paranoia, and she gets two major interviews, one in El Universal but one also in La Nacion of Argentina. And she got two top journalists for that, Roberto Giusti and Hugo Alconada respectively, this last one having become an expert on Venezuelan and Argentinean corruption since the Antonini case of the 800K bucks in a suitcase.

Of course, MCM has never been too far away from the front pages, miscellaneously having her nose broken in the Venezuelan National Assembly while more serious parliaments go out of their way to receive her with all the respect she deserves. Yet we must be surprised that Maduro went out of his way this weekend to suggest that she is the one chosen by the US to replace him by leading an upcoming transition.

The words of Maduro have, of course, no credibility on that matter. After all, if we were to take his words at face value, if his words were to verify in real life he would have probably been killed long ago in one of the multiple attempts against his life. But unfortunately for him, the fact of the matter is that there has been NO SERIOUS case against his life that could be sustained in court of justice. And each time Maduro goes yet deeper in ridicule.

No, we must search elsewhere the reasons why Maduro suddenly brings her to the front line.

"Ustedes saben que hay un cambio de línea en Washington, porque creen que pueden nombrar presidentes en Venezuela. Ahora han ungido a una dama, y la están preparando. Miembro honorífica de un apellido de 200 años de alcurnia. Ahora ella está ungida del poder y le han dicho prepara tu imagen, debes ser moderada, ahora debes vestirte de rojo y parecer chavista,..."You know that there is a change of line in Washington, because they think that they can name presidents in Venezuela. Now they have anointed a lady, and they are preparing her. Honorific member of a last name that has 200 years of prestige [Mayfloweresque?]. Now she is anointed by power and they told her to preapre her image, you need to be moderate, you need to dress in red and look like a chavista....

Of course, this is absolutely preposterous and quite frankly idiotic, oriented to the lumpen chavismo that Maduro has more and more trouble to stir, emote, motivate. Besides the obvious, to try to divide the opposition by questioning the leadership of Capriles there is something else. In a time of crisis, when people are getting desperate, even among some sections of the armed forces, strong language like the one held all along by MCM may start having some effect. Capriles soft chavista light approach did not work in 2012. His rising his tone a notch worked better in 2013. But Capriles has remained the same since and there is a hunger for sterner sentences which MCM provides. Heck, she evens stirs nationalism by accusing Maduro to give up Venezuelan territory to Guyana, something that cannot fail to be noticed by an uncomfortable military forced by Cubans interests to put Cuban policies above Venezuelan national interests. Yes, they are paid to accept that loss but still...... At any rate, whether her words had an effect, the Venezuelan navy took in custody this week a boat working for Guyana.

The problem for Maduro is very basic: he has neither the education, the formation, the competence, the charisma to be a president of Venezuela and the contrast against some of the most, best articulated politicians in the country is starting to be noticed. Certainly people like myself have been monitoring with keen interest people like Leopoldo Lopez of MCM above Capriles and other. But today it is quite possible that the language of Lopez and MCM is reaching deeper than what many would like......... Maduro is thus, in his increased repressive alienation, forced to deal with more than Capriles and preemptively takes on MCM, the more so as she promises to be a top speaker at the National Assembly debate on the enabling law.

And yet MCM is simply repeating what she has said for years now. She is clear in her mind and her interviews cited at the start really do not bring anything new for those who follow.  The novelty is, for example in the Argentine interview, that she looks down on Brasil, reflecting the general disappointment in Brasil and outside with Dilma Roussef. But what she is more direct than ever is her categorical statement that Maduro's tenure should be numbered in months, because not only of the crisis but because  his incurable illegitimacy does not allow him to tackle the crisis, amen of his personal flaws. And that of course, is nightmare material for Maduro.

Enabling law as intra chavista power play of radicals in the ascent

UPDATED There two major news today, one just breaking with the "promotion" of Ramirez to the vice presidency of Economic area while the fate of the previous holder, Merentes, is still unknown (he may retain his seat of finance minister but we have no confirmation at this typing). The second news is the expected formal petition for an enabling law for Maduro. Let's start with this later one although the first one is the more revealing news as to what is truly happening.

Since Hitler's enabling law, that tool as never led to good results. In Venezuela its use has been abundant and has been abused under Chavez. But at least in previous Venezuelan applications the president was freshly elected with a clear victory over the runner up, or had high numbers all the time like Chavez. Maduro has neither high numbers in polls, nor a clear mandate and even less of a clear victory whatsoever as April vote is now recognized as a fraudulent one even by many the rank and file chavismo (though they remain discrete about it because, well, they are cashing in, you know...).  It is not that a limited enabling law with a limited scope to speed up necessary legislation over a punctual problem is necessarily a bad idea, but in a country which under Chavez has revealed its deep lack of democratic fiber such a constitutional figure should be abolished outright. Chavez in his last installment used it to annul the newly elected National Assembly and moved on with it to prepare the grotesque state support for his fraudulent reelection of last year.

Maduro advances many made up excuses to request an enabling law of his own, NONE making sense. He wants to use it to fight corruption but all the necessary legislation already exists. The regime simply refuses to apply it, refuses to tackle corruption which latest example is found with a public official caught with 400K euros in cash in Bulgaria. He wants to use it to fight an alleged economic coup, so that there will be no food shortages. But the solution is easy there since the regime already controls all the foreign currency outflow, already controls the price structure, already can expropriate whatever it wants, already can jail any "saboteur". He wants to use it to stop Venezuela's dependency from oil but he forgets that chavismo has been in office for soon 15 years, has had already enabling laws and the end result of them is that MORE THAN EVER we depend on oil. Another enabling law is not going to solve any of these issues. NONE.

So, what gives? We need to search the true reasons of the enabling law elsewhere, in the murky waters of the internal power struggles of chavismo. Basically we have two sides, each with significant subgroups. To simplify matters there are the "moderate" which understand the value of money and that we are in a globalized word that imposes some of the rules that all must follow least they fall on the wayside. If the economic failure of Chavez, and Cuba, and Zimbabwe and others are not enough for you to understand what is meant by a minimum of rules to follow then it means that your interests are elsewhere, in Nincompoopia. The "radicals" are the other side, the ones that praise to high heaven the tyranny of the Castros over Cuba, who think that indeed Venezuela belongs to Nincompoopondwana, the famed continent where the USSR was a production power house and where Cuba is actually a tropical paradise.

Loosely Diosdado Cabello represented the "moderates", those that love dictatorship with profits. One of his men, or at least kindred spirit in the Maduro government, was Merentes, the finance minister in charge of the vice presidency on economic matters. The "radical" wing was better represented though the fact that "moderates" were officially present seemed to indicate a certain falling back after Chavez death. However in recent weeks it was clear that Cabello did not seem to have the ascendant that he once had. The departure of Merentes, foretold by his clear inability to impose his economic views over Giordani, Jaua and Arreaza, seems to indicate that the "radicals" have finally wooed the "neutral" group led by Ramirez, the smaller, more discrete group in the cabinet but the one that knew how much cash was truly available from oil production. Ramirez is an ideologue, a "resentido social", and should have been counted from the starts in the radical group were it not that his utter lack of charisma and link to the common folk made him realize that he had more to gain personally if he stayed aloof in the immediate post Chavez era.

This is how we must read what is going on this week. The "radicals" are trying to edge once and for all whatever "moderates" are left in charge. It is too early to decide for certain whether this is a mere electoral ploy to mobilize the radical bases to avoid a disaster in December. I think unfortunately that it goes deeper than that. The economy is tanking and the radicals feel cornered. They have decided to remove once and for all any democratic pretense so as to remain in power through repression. This start by insuring the unity of chavismo in a single faction, more able to tackle the democratic opposition later on.

The questions are now: Will Cabello allow for the enabling law to be voted? Will the corrupt and rich and lazy military cave in knowing full well that they will soil their hands with bloods if the radicals take over completely? Is the intricate network of corruption and blackmail inside chavismo enough to neutralize Cabello and the army higher ranks?

Maybe the time has come.
----------------------

UPDATE.  So I watched the second part of Maduro's speech at the National Assembly tonight requesting the enabling law. I am not going to go into details as I sort of tweeted it live in Spanish. I am just giving you the executive summary.

The performance was pitiful: Maduro had all the trouble in the world reading the speech from a booklet. He did not write the speech, that much was obvious by the amount of words and sentences he had trouble with. In fact it is fair to assume that the speech was written by Giordani, the great apparent winner of the economic struggles of the past months. With the help of some Cuban advisors, of course.

The speech was insulting, idiot, uninformed, mean and ideological in a way that not even Chavez would have dared to do in his best years. As such it is clear that his appointed successor and help have not an inch of Chavez skills, but more than his hatred. Then again you need to understand that the speech was not meant for you or me, it was meant for the chavismo rank and file that is getting harder and harder to emote. And also to those inside chavismo that are refusing to follow the Cuban cue as burped out by Maduro.

I think the performance was pitiful and I doubt that Maduro got much traction with it. It is clear that his objective is to muzzle any opposition to his rule, and not only the democratic one. That Cabello screamed and cheered is simply beyond my understanding as he is one of the targets of the proposed law. I also doubt that trying to blame all of the shortcomings of 14 years of Chavez and 10 months of Maduro on anyone but themselves really does not work much today.  I know, I know, the Venezuelan electorate has demonstrated ample stupidity and venality in the last decade but I am going to remind you the stuff that you can fool all of the time some of the people, some of the time all of the people but never all of the people all of the time. And when I write ALL I mean the group that voted for Chavez in 2000.

What happened tonight was indeed a declaration of war but we are not sure against whom, and for what objective. In fact, I am not sure whether Maduro knows.

Note: Maduro was abundant in his insults and reproaches but we still does not know anything about the specifics of his request.....

Edifying read of the day: the WaPo about our implosion

This is your must read for the day, an editorial of the Washington Post, aptly coming out while the chavistas assholes celebrate the Chavez near-corpse victory of October 7 2012, 'cause they have nothing else to celebrate since.

Los Gafos del 7

En estos días cual agobio nos hace escapar las portadas de los periódicos todavía nos llegan rumores, rumores de que otra vez el gobierno tomará las calles caraqueñas en día de trabajo para celebrar algo. Sin contemplaciones, condenándonos a colas, atracos por motorizados en colas, trabajo productivo perdido y más. Hoy, van a celebrar la elección de Hugo Chávez el 7 de octubre pasado. ¡Bien gafos son!

Van a celebrar el resultado de una elección amañada, fraudulenta a todo nivel, y que además fue una estafa a la nación porque presentaron, a sabiendas, un “candidato” que tenía sus semanas contadas. Hoy en día sabemos que si los votos de Chávez aquel 7 fueron posiblemente suficientes para ganar, se mejoró el resultado ya que también hasta los muertos votaron por ese que los iba a visitar muy pronto. Los que hoy se acercarán a tal o cual tarima celebratoria no solamente van a conmemorar el éxito del muerto, pero también todos los fraudes que este hizo para conseguir ese éxito, desde el obsceno ventajismo estatal hasta la ayuda poderosa de las alcahuetas del CNE. ¡Bien gafos son!


Van a celebrar el resultado de una elección que los tiene por el piso hoy. Van a celebrar un monumental derroche para una tal Misión Vivienda que ni produjo lo que prometió ni lo va a producir en algún futuro, cercano o distante. Pero eso sí, enriqueció a más de un pillo, a más de un extranjero, a más de un funcionario chavista, a más de un ministro, a más de un militar. Con lo que se gastó, con lo que se perdió, con lo que se robó podríamos hoy en día aliviar las colas para la comida, conseguir medicinas, arreglar hospitales, y, quien quita, hasta conseguir repuestos para los vehículos de todos. Y ademas se hubiesen construido el mismo número de viviendas si se hubiese confiado el trabajo a los venezolanos que saben de eso. Pero ahora todos los que votaron por Chávez porque tenían una llave de apartamento inexistente en mano o un voucher de papel para una vivienda a entregar en cualquier momento pueden usar la llave de adorno y ese voucher para suplir la escasez de papel de uso personal. ¡Bien gafos fueron!

Van a celebrar el resultado de un difunto porque no pueden celebrar la victoria del vivo que hoy en día ni siquiera ganaría la elección a junta de condominio del edificio donde antes vivía. Tienen que celebrar la elección de muerto porque ya no tienen más nada que celebrar; aunque esto no excluya que el muerto celebre no tener que lidiar con el desastre que nos dejó. Van a celebrar que si no fuese por la fuerza y la alcahuetería de recipientes de misiones cada día más débiles ya tendrían sus próceres viviendo en el exilio. Van a celebrar que si no fuese por la perversidad cubana tendríamos un presidente venezolano. Celebran lograr posicionar etiquetas en Twitter, el único logro reciente del gobierno. ¡Bien gafos son!

Y mientras esa gente celebra un mundo de fantasía nosotros los miramos y poco hacemos. Ni siquiera nuestros supuestos líderes tiene la fortaleza de recordar una y otra vez todo la estafa del difunto porque todavía le tienen miedo a la sombra. Nos preocupamos más si el cupo de viajeros de CADIVI alcanza, si nos lo dan, si lo van a quitar. Estamos contentos porque hicimos la cola y conseguimos mayonesa y la vecina no porque se la hecha de tener dignidad y no se la cala. Estamos contentos porque ya nos acostumbramos a la mediocridad y pronto lo estaremos a la indigencia material y moral. ¡Bien gafos somos!

Hard blues to shake off

Explanation in text

I have to admit that I have a hard time to recover from the news of the last two weeks. And my deep blues comes in part from that Cassandra syndrome that affects me on occasion. People minimize what I say or feel and I am, unfortunately, proven right later, but too late for any good or any comfort. There is always a Clytemnestra to put our kind out of our misery.

The two news that bear heavily on me are the 1.3 tons of coke through a regular Air France flight, and the looting of a truck over the dead body of the driver. I think that these news were covered barely adequately but I fail to sense a feel of outrage, even among readers of this blog. I read here and there stuff that can be summarized as follows: "there has always been looting in Venezuela" or "Air France, Water Spain, Truck Mexico, same difference". It is not. I see those two events as seminal examples on how bad, and doomed?, Venezuela may be.


Yes, indeed, bigger loads of coke have been caught. But they came from stolen private planes, kidnapped fishing boats, unregistered lorries crossing borders, etc... The mean of transport was by itself product of a crime. Never mind that the cargo was even bigger of a crime. But the ease in which the traffickers sneaked in 1.3 tons in a regular air flight is one order of magnitude bigger. This prowess implies too many things that are dangerous. First, since airport security depends on the armed forces, then it follows that these are deeply involved in drug traffic at very high level, much higher than the silly sergeants arrested at first. We are talking generals here. Can we entrust the future of our country, a possible coming "transition" to an army that is so corrupt that even those not in the money loop prefer to shut up rather than protest, or at least leak the names involved?  We have grave concerns for the Venezuelan army, be they those that traffic or steal state money, or those that enable them by their silence.

But this is not all. It was a ruthless act to put such an amount of drug in an airplane, even if we assume airline complicity, voluntary or not. It can be a major security risk for passenger as an airplane may be easily overloaded. It could have been bombs, or explosives that could have exploded during the flight. The reckless contempt for the security of innocent passenger speaks volumes about the amorality and cruelty of those involved with that shipment. Now we can only feel safe away from Venezuela only once we are outside of the receiving airport....

We would be mistaken in thinking that 14 years of Chavez degraded deeply only the military sector. A week after the drug haul we were reminded, for some, or told, for most, that there is a civilian component to that cruelty against the victims. Certainly, we already knew what happens in the horror of Venezuelan jails, or how easy it was for gangs to settle accounts in the barrios, or how unnecessarily victims of robbery were killed for a mere few bucks worth of loot. We also knew that on roads inside the country the stopping of trucks for looting is not an isolated incident. Last Friday it all converged on a truck, in Caracas, in a business district, not a residential one, and within minutes a horde of motorbikers were looting the truck, for this climbing over the agonizing and soon dead driver, without offering any assistance.

There is a video that gives only a partial impression of what the looting mood at Los Ruices was last Friday (in the second half) with authorities barely exerting control. But what that video illustrates quite well is the plague that motorbikers have become in Venezuela, the huge numbers they are and their ruthless contempt at blocking traffic and reckless driving. Chavez is the man that has allowed the rise of that cast of violent folks. True, they may be, for all that I know, a minority inside the motorbiker "community". Chavez made motorbikes easily available for his supporters, and with the ridiculous price of gas they had no problem in learning to use their bikes all the time. Chavez wanted that because he wanted a form of storm troopers ready to mobilize on short notice across Caracas, to launch counter protests wherever needed, the threaten whomever was necessary with a "spontaneous" protest of chavismo own. Soon, they were even allowed without helmets in the highways, a place they were banned from until Chavez.

The result was to be expected. After a decade of driving recklessly, of scratching and banging the cars stuck in traffic as they sneak through it, these storm troopers are realizing that they can mobilize themselves by the hundreds, attack whatever they want to attack, and push back the authorities. They are on the loose on Caracas, a violent mob like gang.

It is clear that the regime permissiveness has created these unruly monsters of which I only describe two today.  And what is the reply to this by the regime. None, because they have none credible to offer, being the Dr. Frankenstein of the story. Or rather, they regurgitate the Cuban invented leitmotiv reply: it is someone else fault, preferably the US and its right wing fascist allies at home, never mind that a Liberal holds the chair in Washington. But the increasing uselessness of the standard reply is forcing the regime into direct threats against the press, threatening sanctions if this one speaks of stuff such as the food scarcity. If the enabling law that Maduro is requesting passes, will it ban coverage of gruesome looting like the one in Los Ruices?  The response of the regime is, as usual, of the same moral caliber as the ones that smuggled the drug in Air France plane, or those who looted over a dead body.

Thus to finish our opening cartoon, another multi layered geniality of Weil at Tal Cual. Chavez is dead, driving an egotistical oversize image of Venezuela that could not pass under the bridge (note: Weil painted Chavez as an army boot). And his wreckage, which is also ours, attracts all sorts of rats stealing our oil, our riches. He created our current society and he escaped having to face the consequences of his misrule.

Keller polls on Maduro's illegitimacy

There are many ways to conduct an electoral poll. In general you ask folks for whom they plan to vote and apply the acknowledged corrections to predict who is going to win. This works more or less but it tends to at least predict the winner, the margins of victory being the major problem. Or you can ask voters who did they vote for. After the fact and totally useless for us, but good for a pollsters as a way to control their polling methods when the vote is still fresh in mind.

This is what Keller did, who used to be my favorite pollster before I decided to send all of the them to the dumpsters. At least Keller still has the saving grace that on long term trends he is one of the best, only lacking when he wants to apply them to tomorrow's result. But that is another story.


What Keller did was to ask who they voted for after last April when results allegedly were 51% Maduro 49% Capriles and which Capriles does not recognize. In May folks answered 40% Maduro and 45% Capriles. Keller folks, surprised, thought they made a mistake in the methodology for that question and asked again in August. They got 40% Maduro for 46% for Capriles..... I suppose that in the post April confusion they added "who do you think won?" getting 45% Maduro and 48% Capriles. And further more 54% think there was electoral fraud somewhere.

I truly do not know what we should really do with this, since it was from a Keller interview I read and I do not know the methods used, nor what were his results, say, in post October 2012 or post December 2007. I do not think really that within a month people got fed up enough with Maduro that they already refused to accept their part in voting him in. This is proven by the almost exact same result of August, 3 months later. Let's just say for the time being that it is one more evidence as to Maduro having stolen the election.

The real mystery here is how come the opposition does not make good use of such results which probably do not come only from Keller.