So, coverage of the election by this blog has been light this time around. But that is no excuse to make it complete. One thing is to vote and another what happens Monday 7. Let's see.
There could be still a suspension/coup
The violence in the campaign trail with the numerous attacks on opposition politicians and the murder of at least one activist has to give us pause. The signs are clear, the regime is not going away peacefully. Still, at this late date I am not betting all of my money that elections will be actually held on Sunday. Also, I am not betting all of my money that elections will be held and results accepted. Whatever the regime chooses to do on these aspects, it will be sorry for it.
The opposition victory
This is now a given, though some disaster can still strike. At this point there is no pollster that states that the regime may win the election, even with a one seat majority. The only question here is how large the opposition win will be. On this respect I have kept updating my Excel sheet and came up on a tighter result than the first "prediction" one. I have accepted that the MUD to PSUV spread will be 10% (I resist giving it more no matter what pollsters say). I tweeted the result and the observation is that with a 10% advantage the "safe" and "leaning" MUD seats barely reach half! It will all depend on how the toss up seats go. This is a measure on how biased the electoral system is in favor or chavismo that a 10% advance barely gives the opposition a half dozen seats majority!
Recognizing victory
Let's say for the sake of the argument that the regime indeed accepts that the opposition alliance MUD wins. Will the regime accept full victory? Or will the regime subjects us to hours of delays while backroom negotiations take place so that the opposition recognizes a lower seat count in exchange of having a majority recognized? e.g. give up on a 3/5 majority in exchange of a regime recognition of a simple majority.
The week after
Depending on the shock wave of Sunday 6, it is quite possible that the regime uses what days are left from its 2010 majority to pass further laws to restrict the role of the elected National Assembly. That one may be able to shake that away but there will be a waste of time before the elected assembly can start its real job.
Miscellaneous
And of course there are all sorts of things that can go bump in the dark. For example there could be violence from the out of control "colectivos". There could be riots, hunger riots as surprisingly stores do not get food as soon as the opposition majority is proclaimed, etc, etc.
As for what happens once the opposition victory is acknowledged? Matter for another post.
Monday, 30 November 2015
Sunday, 29 November 2015
The Macri effect
One week ago Argentina elected a new president, the first certifiably peronist free in decades. As expected there will be changes in Argentina foreign policy. What was less expected is the speed at which president elect Macri started those changes, more than two weeks before being sworn in. To begin with, of the few people allowed on the election night stand, one was Leopoldo Lopez wife, Lilian Tintori. This made it to the opening news of CNNSpanish...
So what now?
The first thing to note is that Macri means what he said. He repeated it twice on his morning after first press conference. Other countries are taking notice and are not amused, like Uruguay. To which Macri replied stating point blank that human right violations were public and notorious in Venezuela and it was up to other countries to chose interest over ethics. In Venezuela they took a few days to acknowledge the hit, hoping, I suppose, that Dilma or somebody would call Macri to ask him to shut up. When nothing more but very gauche declarations like the one from Uruguay came, the regime finally reacted. National Assembly chair Diosdado Cabello called Macri a fascist (it takes one to know one, I suppose). And president Maduro, not to be left behind, went as far as saying that the Argentinian people were ready to raise against Macri (interesting statement since he just got elected, is not sworn in yet,but then again Maduro was never suspected of being a democrat).
And yet, for of his apparent democratic ethics Macri thinks more about Argentina interests than those of Venezuela. He knows that a battle in Mercosur to evict Venezuela is lost because Brazil and Uruguay are too involved with Venezuela corruption and Venezuela owes them too much money. Macri's target is not only the increasingly abhorrent regime of Venezuela, it is Mercosur itself.
Mercosur is failing since Lula reached power. It has become for Brazil something like its private economic zone and as such things like true economic integration and political developments have been sub-ordained to Brazil's interests. The devastating Argentina crisis 13 years ago, and the very light weight of Uruguay and Paraguay made that possible. In other words, with the fraudulent incorporation of Venezuela Mercosur is going nowhere, and Macri seems to have no patience with that. In fact, Macri is looking towards relations with the Pacific Alliance which would favor Argentina more as its economy is more complementary to the P.A. needs than Brazil's one. If Mercosur fails to tame Venezuela it will be a perfect excuse for Macri to start taking its distances with it.
There is also more than Mercosur in the target, there is also the useless UNASUR, a presidential left self protection club for South America. Note that the the swearing in of Macri is on December 10, just when an eventual election fraud crisis in Venezuela would be at its apex. Apparently Macri has chosen his new foreign minister for her experience even though he did not know here personally. He gave her an agenda where two points were nonnegotiable: his pressure on Venezuela and the end of Argentina's relations with Iran. Clearly UNASUR received a notification that any unjustified support to Venezuela will not be approved by Macri and such a division could well mean also the end of the useless UNASUR.
¡Plop! Café CÑN empieza su cobertura de resultado Argentino con abrazo de @liliantintori y @mauriciomacri en tarima pic.twitter.com/t2NkUB7x0e— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) November 23, 2015So what now?
The first thing to note is that Macri means what he said. He repeated it twice on his morning after first press conference. Other countries are taking notice and are not amused, like Uruguay. To which Macri replied stating point blank that human right violations were public and notorious in Venezuela and it was up to other countries to chose interest over ethics. In Venezuela they took a few days to acknowledge the hit, hoping, I suppose, that Dilma or somebody would call Macri to ask him to shut up. When nothing more but very gauche declarations like the one from Uruguay came, the regime finally reacted. National Assembly chair Diosdado Cabello called Macri a fascist (it takes one to know one, I suppose). And president Maduro, not to be left behind, went as far as saying that the Argentinian people were ready to raise against Macri (interesting statement since he just got elected, is not sworn in yet,but then again Maduro was never suspected of being a democrat).
And yet, for of his apparent democratic ethics Macri thinks more about Argentina interests than those of Venezuela. He knows that a battle in Mercosur to evict Venezuela is lost because Brazil and Uruguay are too involved with Venezuela corruption and Venezuela owes them too much money. Macri's target is not only the increasingly abhorrent regime of Venezuela, it is Mercosur itself.
Mercosur is failing since Lula reached power. It has become for Brazil something like its private economic zone and as such things like true economic integration and political developments have been sub-ordained to Brazil's interests. The devastating Argentina crisis 13 years ago, and the very light weight of Uruguay and Paraguay made that possible. In other words, with the fraudulent incorporation of Venezuela Mercosur is going nowhere, and Macri seems to have no patience with that. In fact, Macri is looking towards relations with the Pacific Alliance which would favor Argentina more as its economy is more complementary to the P.A. needs than Brazil's one. If Mercosur fails to tame Venezuela it will be a perfect excuse for Macri to start taking its distances with it.
There is also more than Mercosur in the target, there is also the useless UNASUR, a presidential left self protection club for South America. Note that the the swearing in of Macri is on December 10, just when an eventual election fraud crisis in Venezuela would be at its apex. Apparently Macri has chosen his new foreign minister for her experience even though he did not know here personally. He gave her an agenda where two points were nonnegotiable: his pressure on Venezuela and the end of Argentina's relations with Iran. Clearly UNASUR received a notification that any unjustified support to Venezuela will not be approved by Macri and such a division could well mean also the end of the useless UNASUR.
Friday, 27 November 2015
La Marseillaise is back
Today there was a very moving tribute to those who died in the Paris attack of November 13. The chosen venue for its austerity and splendor, and security, was the yard at L'Hotel des Invalides, built by the Sun King and that is used without any remorse by La République. At the end of the ceremony the French anthem was powerfully sung by all the political participants from all crosses of the republic, all security forces and, I dare to venture, at least 90% of the victims relatives that attended.
Although not clear for non French national the tribune behind the president, all alone in front, included all relevant figures, from all ex prime ministers, figures from both extremes, high army officers mixed with civilians, and more. All freezing cold together in republican unity behind the figure of the state. You have to give it to the French for Republican restrained but telling pageantry, one that only the US may outdo. Republic is not an empty feeling.
The values of the republic are obvious from those pictures, there is no need for me to discuss except to note that these values are cruelly missing today in Venezuela where such a gathering is today unthinkable.
I have refrained to discuss the terror attacks on Paris two weeks ago because I could not believe I would had to do such twice in a year. And then, the show of national unity moved me, made me proud of my French passport (a feeling I have lost about my Venezuelan passport circa 2009).
These days in Paris there is the palpable feeling that comes from the distinction between patriotism, the love of your countrymen, and nationalism, the hatred of what is foreign. And perhaps nothing shows it more than the revival of the French anthem, La Marsellaise.
I may be wrong about this but from my years in the US I met a lot of foreigners and as it turned out, a lot of Japanese colleagues. I came to think that Japanese and French were, curiously, cultures closer than one would expect a priori. The point is that only Japanese seem as self assured of their cultural origins and "superiority" than the French. This seems so self-evident for us that we do not feel threatened by other cultures. We do not need to travel as some do with a bottle of ketchup or can "diablitos" if you come from Venezuela.
The paradox here is that this self confidence of the French make us have little attachment to some exterior signs of our nationality. If we live overseas, like I do, we are more likely touched by our anthem than those living in France, who may even consider it gauche and pedestrian to wave the flag or sing La Marseillaise in public. The terror attacks of November 13 may have put an end to this.
In the last two weeks there has been a rather extraordinary display of the "bleu, blanc, rouge" to the point that the government asked the population to try to display the French flag everywhere possible. This request would have been inconceivable on November 12, and even less coming from a socialist government. We are told that these days the French army is beating all records for new recruits, and beyond. And now most of us have no qualms singing La Marseillaise in public.
This new found reverence for our anthem may be something that IS/DAESH did not anticipate and may be sorry for it.
It was not easy for La Marseillaise to gain status, no matter how exciting was its music. Napoleon dropped it and we had to wait for the third Republic in 1879 to have it as the national anthem, something that was not amusing for the monarchies controlling the rest of Europe then. In fact La Marseillaise was the revolutionary chant until finally others emerged like the Internationale.
The words of its first stanza sound even bloodier today than what they used to be; "bloody banners" "ferocious soldiers roaring" "slaughtering your children and women" "grab your weapons citizens" "drown your soil with impure blood". And yet, it survived and is even considered to have one of the easiest tunes to sing along, certainly a reason for its popularity.
But the Marseillaise words also remind folks that France has a warrior past that cannot be forgotten just because the country collapsed ignominiously in one single month of 1940, something that the ancestral enemies of France are fond of recalling. Even friends like the US...
What the terror attack has done, unwillingly, is to wake up this warrior past of France, forgotten since 1940 and the unwinnable wars in Vietnam and Algeria. The peacenick side of France has always been fashionable since the 60ies, and today it is questioned seriously. Of course that does not mean we are going to go to Napoleonic warfare again, times have changed fortunately. But I, for one, was disconcerted a little with how easy it was for socialist president to "declare" war on IS and get near unanimous support at home. Not even in the US Bush had it that easy. IS will be punished, it has been agreed on.
If the IS launched its attacks to shame France, to feed its internal divisions, right now it seems to have badly backfired. France is as united as it has been since WW2, with a patriotic fervor that goes without cheap chauvinism and without hatred. France is reawakening and I think the French may be the most surprised at it. The problem here is mostly for the large Muslim community inside France who now will have to join in and accept that they are French in a secular state. Or? We will see, but we can be sure that this play is just starting.
I am leaving you with this video from today about La Marseillase alone. Enjoy and be thrilled. Aux armes citoyens, sing it aloud and feel
Although not clear for non French national the tribune behind the president, all alone in front, included all relevant figures, from all ex prime ministers, figures from both extremes, high army officers mixed with civilians, and more. All freezing cold together in republican unity behind the figure of the state. You have to give it to the French for Republican restrained but telling pageantry, one that only the US may outdo. Republic is not an empty feeling.
 |
| (Mayors are the only officials allowed to wear the tricolor sash) |
The values of the republic are obvious from those pictures, there is no need for me to discuss except to note that these values are cruelly missing today in Venezuela where such a gathering is today unthinkable.
I have refrained to discuss the terror attacks on Paris two weeks ago because I could not believe I would had to do such twice in a year. And then, the show of national unity moved me, made me proud of my French passport (a feeling I have lost about my Venezuelan passport circa 2009).
These days in Paris there is the palpable feeling that comes from the distinction between patriotism, the love of your countrymen, and nationalism, the hatred of what is foreign. And perhaps nothing shows it more than the revival of the French anthem, La Marsellaise.
I may be wrong about this but from my years in the US I met a lot of foreigners and as it turned out, a lot of Japanese colleagues. I came to think that Japanese and French were, curiously, cultures closer than one would expect a priori. The point is that only Japanese seem as self assured of their cultural origins and "superiority" than the French. This seems so self-evident for us that we do not feel threatened by other cultures. We do not need to travel as some do with a bottle of ketchup or can "diablitos" if you come from Venezuela.
The paradox here is that this self confidence of the French make us have little attachment to some exterior signs of our nationality. If we live overseas, like I do, we are more likely touched by our anthem than those living in France, who may even consider it gauche and pedestrian to wave the flag or sing La Marseillaise in public. The terror attacks of November 13 may have put an end to this.
In the last two weeks there has been a rather extraordinary display of the "bleu, blanc, rouge" to the point that the government asked the population to try to display the French flag everywhere possible. This request would have been inconceivable on November 12, and even less coming from a socialist government. We are told that these days the French army is beating all records for new recruits, and beyond. And now most of us have no qualms singing La Marseillaise in public.
This new found reverence for our anthem may be something that IS/DAESH did not anticipate and may be sorry for it.
It was not easy for La Marseillaise to gain status, no matter how exciting was its music. Napoleon dropped it and we had to wait for the third Republic in 1879 to have it as the national anthem, something that was not amusing for the monarchies controlling the rest of Europe then. In fact La Marseillaise was the revolutionary chant until finally others emerged like the Internationale.
The words of its first stanza sound even bloodier today than what they used to be; "bloody banners" "ferocious soldiers roaring" "slaughtering your children and women" "grab your weapons citizens" "drown your soil with impure blood". And yet, it survived and is even considered to have one of the easiest tunes to sing along, certainly a reason for its popularity.
But the Marseillaise words also remind folks that France has a warrior past that cannot be forgotten just because the country collapsed ignominiously in one single month of 1940, something that the ancestral enemies of France are fond of recalling. Even friends like the US...
What the terror attack has done, unwillingly, is to wake up this warrior past of France, forgotten since 1940 and the unwinnable wars in Vietnam and Algeria. The peacenick side of France has always been fashionable since the 60ies, and today it is questioned seriously. Of course that does not mean we are going to go to Napoleonic warfare again, times have changed fortunately. But I, for one, was disconcerted a little with how easy it was for socialist president to "declare" war on IS and get near unanimous support at home. Not even in the US Bush had it that easy. IS will be punished, it has been agreed on.
If the IS launched its attacks to shame France, to feed its internal divisions, right now it seems to have badly backfired. France is as united as it has been since WW2, with a patriotic fervor that goes without cheap chauvinism and without hatred. France is reawakening and I think the French may be the most surprised at it. The problem here is mostly for the large Muslim community inside France who now will have to join in and accept that they are French in a secular state. Or? We will see, but we can be sure that this play is just starting.
I am leaving you with this video from today about La Marseillase alone. Enjoy and be thrilled. Aux armes citoyens, sing it aloud and feel
Friday, 20 November 2015
A casual electoral prediction (election YV-5)
In past elections I have made predictions that often turned out acceptable to excellent (and sometimes not). This time around as announced, I have not made any exhaustive analysis of numbers and trends because, well, I have no time, not that much interest, the election is too emotional, etc... And mostly because I do not know what will happen on December 6, but I know quite well what will start on December 7. If the regime does not cancel the election, still a possibility for a crazed Maduro.
Yet, I should still play a little.
How did I come up with this graph? After looking at the Caucaguita tale telling trend I did my district excel table, tossed around a few numbers based on the 2010 election, got inspiration on results in between, kept in mind that being angry at Maduro does not mean that the chavista voter will cross the line, and never forgot that the regime has enough of a blackmailing machinery to still be able to save the basics. This, of course, allow me to remain skeptic of the very enthusiastic polls in favor of the opposition. I mean, at this point, I do not think that the treachery of the regime will be enough to save its skin but I am willing to bet that the opposition will not reach the 2/3 grail (power to change the constitution).
Thus the above is my pessimistic result where chavismo retains as much clout as possible. But for that it will need to retain all the seats that I termed "Lean PSUV" and, well, all the toss up seats. I doubt that it can manage that and chavismo should be thankful that it keeps 3/4 of the leaning one and half of the toss up, which will be enough for the opposition to win and get close to a 3/5 majority.
Say, statistically:
45 of the safe +19 of the lean MUD, + 14 tossup, + 6 lean PSUV that makes 84 out of 167, that is 1 seat majority. This for me is the very least the MUD will get.
My max? At this point:
49 safe +24 lean MUD + 16 toss up +10 lean PSUV +2 upset of the red ones that makes 101 out of 167. Or 60% of the seats (with more than 60% of the vote, kind of a stretch no matter what polls say). That is, a 3/5 majority by one seat. Sorry, I cannot come up with a better number for you anti chavista crowd at this time. We'll see December 5.
Reminder: I am not sticking out my neck on this prediction as I have not been able to do all the local research I used to do for other elections. It is as serious a work as I can do according to circumstances but it is still incomplete.
Yet, I should still play a little.
How did I come up with this graph? After looking at the Caucaguita tale telling trend I did my district excel table, tossed around a few numbers based on the 2010 election, got inspiration on results in between, kept in mind that being angry at Maduro does not mean that the chavista voter will cross the line, and never forgot that the regime has enough of a blackmailing machinery to still be able to save the basics. This, of course, allow me to remain skeptic of the very enthusiastic polls in favor of the opposition. I mean, at this point, I do not think that the treachery of the regime will be enough to save its skin but I am willing to bet that the opposition will not reach the 2/3 grail (power to change the constitution).
Thus the above is my pessimistic result where chavismo retains as much clout as possible. But for that it will need to retain all the seats that I termed "Lean PSUV" and, well, all the toss up seats. I doubt that it can manage that and chavismo should be thankful that it keeps 3/4 of the leaning one and half of the toss up, which will be enough for the opposition to win and get close to a 3/5 majority.
Say, statistically:
45 of the safe +19 of the lean MUD, + 14 tossup, + 6 lean PSUV that makes 84 out of 167, that is 1 seat majority. This for me is the very least the MUD will get.
My max? At this point:
49 safe +24 lean MUD + 16 toss up +10 lean PSUV +2 upset of the red ones that makes 101 out of 167. Or 60% of the seats (with more than 60% of the vote, kind of a stretch no matter what polls say). That is, a 3/5 majority by one seat. Sorry, I cannot come up with a better number for you anti chavista crowd at this time. We'll see December 5.
Reminder: I am not sticking out my neck on this prediction as I have not been able to do all the local research I used to do for other elections. It is as serious a work as I can do according to circumstances but it is still incomplete.
Monday, 16 November 2015
As Caucaguita goes so will the election go (election YV-4)
Long time readers of this blog will remember that I have picked up Caucaguita as a bell-weather district in all election analysis that I have written along these many years. Sometimes even with regularly updated graphs as years added more data. As I have written a few months ago this time around I have neither the intention, nor the time to analyze in detail this most emotional of elections, amen of the worst treachery factor since 1999. But I did promise a few short posts in the last days to help interested people understand what is going on. So I went to my Caucaguita electoral figures and came up with this simplified version.
To make a long story short, Cuacaguita is a poor downtrodden area of Eastern Caracas in the Petare district. It has been used as an electoral propaganda ground, most notoriously in the Luis Herrera election (1978). But things never improved much since. It should be a district where chavismo should get always 75% of the vote. And yet it does not.
Now there is a lot of data available for the behavior of Caucaguita voter and one observation is that abstention rates are at least 10% higher in "local" elections than in "national" elections. And more variable. But now I can use only "national" elections data, presidential, referenda and legislative in the graph above. And the results can be simplified to that subset of data, and become more telling.
Interestingly the abstention trend line is to decrease. Slowly but surely. This shows that not only the "bring in the vote" machinery has perfected over the years, but even the opposition benefits from it in what is normally hostile territory. Never mind the possibility of a better educated elector, more aware of its role.
The second observation is that the advantage of chavismo is eroding, slowly but equally surely. The graph shows what percentage of the opposition vote would represent of the chavista vote. That is, 60% means that for every 100 chavista voters 60 opposition voters showed up.
I think that the graph above is quite clear in its meaning even though the total chavista votes varies a lot according on what is actually on the ballot. The opposition vote is increasing its share, and it has gone from a 1 to 2 deficit advantage to barely a 4 to 5.
This is bad news for the regime as we cannot see how this one can stop that trend, the more so that the economic situation is near catastrophic. If the opposition were to manage a count of at least 85% of the chavista count in Caucaguita we can predict a general victory for the opposition country wide. Only rural districts can escape the electoral logic of the Cuacaguita urban nature.
I will note that in its latest attempt at gerrymandering Cuacaguita was taken away from Petare, considered lost for chavismo, to supplement the Guarenas-Guatire district now under heavy opposition pressure (Guatire is already lost). However if the opposition equates 85% of chavismo in Caucaguita I am afraid that it all will have been for naught for the regime.
Then again there is also naked electoral fraud, but that is another story. The take home lesson here is that the lower the abstention the better the chances for the opposition. This graph, in this most difficult district, is explicit. In other words, for the assholes that still preach abstention, please, shut up, you are an embarrassment.
To make a long story short, Cuacaguita is a poor downtrodden area of Eastern Caracas in the Petare district. It has been used as an electoral propaganda ground, most notoriously in the Luis Herrera election (1978). But things never improved much since. It should be a district where chavismo should get always 75% of the vote. And yet it does not.
Now there is a lot of data available for the behavior of Caucaguita voter and one observation is that abstention rates are at least 10% higher in "local" elections than in "national" elections. And more variable. But now I can use only "national" elections data, presidential, referenda and legislative in the graph above. And the results can be simplified to that subset of data, and become more telling.
Interestingly the abstention trend line is to decrease. Slowly but surely. This shows that not only the "bring in the vote" machinery has perfected over the years, but even the opposition benefits from it in what is normally hostile territory. Never mind the possibility of a better educated elector, more aware of its role.
The second observation is that the advantage of chavismo is eroding, slowly but equally surely. The graph shows what percentage of the opposition vote would represent of the chavista vote. That is, 60% means that for every 100 chavista voters 60 opposition voters showed up.
I think that the graph above is quite clear in its meaning even though the total chavista votes varies a lot according on what is actually on the ballot. The opposition vote is increasing its share, and it has gone from a 1 to 2 deficit advantage to barely a 4 to 5.
This is bad news for the regime as we cannot see how this one can stop that trend, the more so that the economic situation is near catastrophic. If the opposition were to manage a count of at least 85% of the chavista count in Caucaguita we can predict a general victory for the opposition country wide. Only rural districts can escape the electoral logic of the Cuacaguita urban nature.
I will note that in its latest attempt at gerrymandering Cuacaguita was taken away from Petare, considered lost for chavismo, to supplement the Guarenas-Guatire district now under heavy opposition pressure (Guatire is already lost). However if the opposition equates 85% of chavismo in Caucaguita I am afraid that it all will have been for naught for the regime.
Then again there is also naked electoral fraud, but that is another story. The take home lesson here is that the lower the abstention the better the chances for the opposition. This graph, in this most difficult district, is explicit. In other words, for the assholes that still preach abstention, please, shut up, you are an embarrassment.
Sunday, 15 November 2015
A small gathering at Plaza Altamira
Plaza Francia Caracas 18:15 pic.twitter.com/1Pp7Dr5AOT— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) November 15, 2015It had to be opposition mayors that had a gathering in support of France after the Paris attacks. In addition of the Embassy top brass, the mayors of Chacao and El Hatillo attended (Muchacho and Smolanski). As far as I know no chavista mayor did shit. But they are too busy trying to save their electoral skins and covering up for the first family drug deals.
Incidentally, most head of states or government have sent personal messages of support to France from their tweeter account. On @nicolasmaduro you will find a simple re-tweet of the foreign ministry which is as lame as possible a communique, but dozens and dozens of electoral re-tweets, many or all of them violating campaign rules.
Then again the regime has been a faithful ally of Assad and of the kind of good and bad terrorist. So I should not be surprised.....
Also I am in shock reading that some in Venezuela disqualify support for France as there are as many victims on a single week end crime spree in Caracas. We are really a fucked up society here.
Saturday, 14 November 2015
Paris
This is also my flag, and more so today.
This is the flag that stands for a secular society ruled by law.
Wednesday, 11 November 2015
Flowers and letters: no romance for the revolutionary corpse
It is hard to underestimate the weigh of this week's events on an agonizing Maduro's headed regime. Even your prudent blogger is cautiously allowing himself to believe that yes, indeed, the regime's life should be counted in weeks... Or that at the very least a major change is just around the corner.
The week started with the reply sent to Tibisay Lucena by OAS Secretary Luis Almagro. See, Almagro got really upset about the flippancy of Tibisay Lucena, head of the CNE, Venezuela's electoral board. The woman, on orders from the regime that she is only too happy to oblige, is refusing ANY supervision to the crucial electoral process coming on December 6.
As it turns out the international community has been sending lots of hints as to the validity and fairness of the coming election. These hints have not been duly responded. Thus these hints became more and more direct, asking formally the CNE to allow real international observation, not the mere tourist tour on election day by "friendly" countries which in addition are barred from direct comment on elections. Lucena (and so many others in the regime) have become ruder and ruder, going as far as saying that people like Almagro were interfering on sovereign matters (injerencia). In short: butt off.
The latest curt and undiplomatic reply of Tibisay to Luis was just too much for him and he replied in a long 18 pages letter (PDF in Spanish here). He needed that much space because the letter reads like the longest most comprehensive indictment on Tibisay Lucena's work. Nothing was missed, from the cheapest electoral treacheries, to the lack of access by the opposition to TV, through all the material abuses of the regime, without forgetting political prisoners. Almagro even shows his clear understanding of gerrymandering as done in Venezuela. All, ALL is there. Asking for an observation is in fact a courtesy of sorts, to offer a chance for the regime to state its case.
This letter is of utmost importance because he lays at the feet of Lucena all the guilt for any negative consequence that the fraudulent elections may have. Almagro's team (and allies as he cannot have sent such a letter without the acquiescence of a few OAS members) is absolutely clear on that guilt: either Lucena has been promoting that treachery or she has remained silent in front of it. In the end all will be her direct responsibility. In short, the letter is, well, an ultimatum.
But any rational answer that the regime may have considered to Almagro's letter was taking a back seat when we learned today that two close relatives of Cilia Flores, Maduro's wife and probably the real power behind the throne, were arrested in Haiti as 800 kilos deal of cocaine traffic was busted. As the amateurs that these kids were they blurted immediately their status and their diplomatic passport. To no avail of course for the DEA personnel. Within hours all major papers in the world have been carrying the news that Maduro's close step-relatives were busted, and busted bad.
No link needed, just pick up WSJ, NYT, El Pais, Veja, etc... for details. In short, the two kids fell like amateurs trusting what seemed a rather casual contact from Honduras who was in fact a DEA undercover agent. Cilia Flores nepotism has defrayed the chronicles so there is no surprise in seeing these kids with a high sense of entitlement showing their diplomatic passport (though being nobodies), and promptly saying that they were Maduro's family, and then stating that the drug belonged to Diosdado and Tarek El Aissami (Aragua's governor, on the DEA list). These kids are going to chirp as much as asked.
One can only wonder if they were not set up from the start by a rival Venezuelan drug cartel to sink another one.
Now, this is a big problem. The only way for Cilia and Nicolas out of that mess is to condemn the kids and ask for justice to apply firmly. But we all know that this is not going to happen. So, what? We may have all sorts of invective against the US. Even a final break with closing embassies. Perhaps even a formal notification of Venezuela leaving the OAS (remember the letter at the beginning). The regime may even go as far as cancelling the election for "national security reasons since diplomatic passports are not respected".
But nobody outside of Venezuela will follow. Diplomatic immunity is no blanket immunity to begin with. And it applies only in the country where your mission is. Unless the Flores kids were attached to the Venezuelan embassy in Port au Prince there is little Venezuela can do. A crime is a crime and drug traffic is a crime everywhere in the world except in Venezuela, it seems. Though we can be sure that Haiti will stop receiving its allowances (and may have stopped to do so for a while which means they turned to the US where the bucks are).
I really do not see how the regime can wiggle out of this one. Someone will have to pay, if anything for allowing such a mess to happen, for being such a careless operator. The facts are clear. The world has served notice to the regime that its elections are rigged. The world has announced to the regime that its narco state character is not acceptable. The DEA has learned its lesson form the Carvajal fiasco in Aruba and now they are ready to pick up regime narco officials one by one, as soon as they set foot outside of Venezuela. There must be feverish meetings tonight at Miraflores Palace and major military camps.
I do not know what is going to happen, but something is going to. Since the odds of Cilia abandoning her brood are nil (never mind that they implicated Maduro's own son) we must look elsewhere. Since this is an irrational thug system anything crazy can happen. I would dare to suggest that the only way the regime can try to limit damage from this, and maybe even gain some leverage, is by forcing Maduro to resign in the coming days.
Maduro and Cilia are now beyond "damaged goods", even for their Cuban puppet masters. Forcing them to resign would have one immediate effect: suspend legislative elections where the spread is now reaching 20% against the regime in polls. In a presidential system presidential elections come first and the regime can hope that a presidential election may favor an opposition division while the anti Maduro chavista base may decide to come back to the regime once Maduro is out. Legislative elections can be held later. If the regime loses the presidency it will not matter much for chavismo in the Assembly; if it retains the presidency then it will be easier to retain a legislative majority. Or so would the strategy go. It would be easy to play around electoral agenda using primaries, etc, to postpone presidential elections all the way until February/March and legislative ones all the way until May or June.
That is what I would do if I were the regime, try to gain a few months in the hope oil prices go up again, or that opposition leadership is all in jail.
At any rate, tonight I truly feel for the first time that something has been set into motion, for better or for worse.
PS: note that 800 seem to be a magic kabalistic number for chavismo, like in the Antonini cash bag for Kirchner reelection or the 800 kilos of cocaine in Haiti.
The week started with the reply sent to Tibisay Lucena by OAS Secretary Luis Almagro. See, Almagro got really upset about the flippancy of Tibisay Lucena, head of the CNE, Venezuela's electoral board. The woman, on orders from the regime that she is only too happy to oblige, is refusing ANY supervision to the crucial electoral process coming on December 6.
As it turns out the international community has been sending lots of hints as to the validity and fairness of the coming election. These hints have not been duly responded. Thus these hints became more and more direct, asking formally the CNE to allow real international observation, not the mere tourist tour on election day by "friendly" countries which in addition are barred from direct comment on elections. Lucena (and so many others in the regime) have become ruder and ruder, going as far as saying that people like Almagro were interfering on sovereign matters (injerencia). In short: butt off.
The latest curt and undiplomatic reply of Tibisay to Luis was just too much for him and he replied in a long 18 pages letter (PDF in Spanish here). He needed that much space because the letter reads like the longest most comprehensive indictment on Tibisay Lucena's work. Nothing was missed, from the cheapest electoral treacheries, to the lack of access by the opposition to TV, through all the material abuses of the regime, without forgetting political prisoners. Almagro even shows his clear understanding of gerrymandering as done in Venezuela. All, ALL is there. Asking for an observation is in fact a courtesy of sorts, to offer a chance for the regime to state its case.
This letter is of utmost importance because he lays at the feet of Lucena all the guilt for any negative consequence that the fraudulent elections may have. Almagro's team (and allies as he cannot have sent such a letter without the acquiescence of a few OAS members) is absolutely clear on that guilt: either Lucena has been promoting that treachery or she has remained silent in front of it. In the end all will be her direct responsibility. In short, the letter is, well, an ultimatum.
But any rational answer that the regime may have considered to Almagro's letter was taking a back seat when we learned today that two close relatives of Cilia Flores, Maduro's wife and probably the real power behind the throne, were arrested in Haiti as 800 kilos deal of cocaine traffic was busted. As the amateurs that these kids were they blurted immediately their status and their diplomatic passport. To no avail of course for the DEA personnel. Within hours all major papers in the world have been carrying the news that Maduro's close step-relatives were busted, and busted bad.
No link needed, just pick up WSJ, NYT, El Pais, Veja, etc... for details. In short, the two kids fell like amateurs trusting what seemed a rather casual contact from Honduras who was in fact a DEA undercover agent. Cilia Flores nepotism has defrayed the chronicles so there is no surprise in seeing these kids with a high sense of entitlement showing their diplomatic passport (though being nobodies), and promptly saying that they were Maduro's family, and then stating that the drug belonged to Diosdado and Tarek El Aissami (Aragua's governor, on the DEA list). These kids are going to chirp as much as asked.
One can only wonder if they were not set up from the start by a rival Venezuelan drug cartel to sink another one.
Now, this is a big problem. The only way for Cilia and Nicolas out of that mess is to condemn the kids and ask for justice to apply firmly. But we all know that this is not going to happen. So, what? We may have all sorts of invective against the US. Even a final break with closing embassies. Perhaps even a formal notification of Venezuela leaving the OAS (remember the letter at the beginning). The regime may even go as far as cancelling the election for "national security reasons since diplomatic passports are not respected".
But nobody outside of Venezuela will follow. Diplomatic immunity is no blanket immunity to begin with. And it applies only in the country where your mission is. Unless the Flores kids were attached to the Venezuelan embassy in Port au Prince there is little Venezuela can do. A crime is a crime and drug traffic is a crime everywhere in the world except in Venezuela, it seems. Though we can be sure that Haiti will stop receiving its allowances (and may have stopped to do so for a while which means they turned to the US where the bucks are).
I really do not see how the regime can wiggle out of this one. Someone will have to pay, if anything for allowing such a mess to happen, for being such a careless operator. The facts are clear. The world has served notice to the regime that its elections are rigged. The world has announced to the regime that its narco state character is not acceptable. The DEA has learned its lesson form the Carvajal fiasco in Aruba and now they are ready to pick up regime narco officials one by one, as soon as they set foot outside of Venezuela. There must be feverish meetings tonight at Miraflores Palace and major military camps.
I do not know what is going to happen, but something is going to. Since the odds of Cilia abandoning her brood are nil (never mind that they implicated Maduro's own son) we must look elsewhere. Since this is an irrational thug system anything crazy can happen. I would dare to suggest that the only way the regime can try to limit damage from this, and maybe even gain some leverage, is by forcing Maduro to resign in the coming days.
Maduro and Cilia are now beyond "damaged goods", even for their Cuban puppet masters. Forcing them to resign would have one immediate effect: suspend legislative elections where the spread is now reaching 20% against the regime in polls. In a presidential system presidential elections come first and the regime can hope that a presidential election may favor an opposition division while the anti Maduro chavista base may decide to come back to the regime once Maduro is out. Legislative elections can be held later. If the regime loses the presidency it will not matter much for chavismo in the Assembly; if it retains the presidency then it will be easier to retain a legislative majority. Or so would the strategy go. It would be easy to play around electoral agenda using primaries, etc, to postpone presidential elections all the way until February/March and legislative ones all the way until May or June.
That is what I would do if I were the regime, try to gain a few months in the hope oil prices go up again, or that opposition leadership is all in jail.
At any rate, tonight I truly feel for the first time that something has been set into motion, for better or for worse.
PS: note that 800 seem to be a magic kabalistic number for chavismo, like in the Antonini cash bag for Kirchner reelection or the 800 kilos of cocaine in Haiti.
Monday, 9 November 2015
Can the opposition win? (election YV-3)
This is a rhetorical question: even the once neutral to favorable pollsters historically putting chavismo even or ahead are now giving the opposition a two digit lead. And yet things are not that simple.
I am not talking here of the obvious: electoral cheating that has taken this time around a many splendored scope. This December election will be one for the annals of deceit, treachery and plain banditry.
Yet it is very difficult to imagine a scenario where chavismo could get back to trailing the opposition no more than 5% which is enough for them to get a one seat advantage. I have already discussed that a "victory" for the opposition is a 3/5 majority. Nothing less will be good enough to force the country into a fairly negotiated political transition. Actually I am starting to think that a 2/3 parliamentary majority is what the opposition needs to win. Equally for the regime at this point a "victory" is 45% of the vote cast. Anything less will not do as no "revolution" can retain a semblance of credibility with such poor result in vote. Never mind that the military will start having doubts about supporting a plebiscite based regime that cannot even get 40+% of the vote.
This being said, the point of this blog entry is to think about whether the opposition can indeed get a 2 digit leaded, that is 10%+ margin over chavismo. No matter what the polls say it is hard to guess. True, a larger vote count seems now assured, but the margin will be volatile for many reasons.
First, many folks who have voted for Chavez consistently for over a decade will have a hard time to admit that they were wrong even if their heads are now sun baked through food scarcity lines. I, for one, cannot imagine many chavistas hoping happily from chavismo to opposition without an "abstention" election in between. That "abstain first and then vote oppo next" has been the pattern in the slow electoral growth of the opposition. But going from a documented trend to an hypothetical landslide.....
From this first observation you can understand that the second observation will be about the emotional content of the vote. True, the natives are restless but it is my belief that the bulk of chavista "desertion" will be more through abstention than actual switching. This because many of them will decide for real what to do in the very last days of the campaign and no poll can see that. True, such last minute decisions will not affect the outcome but could at the last minute carve out 2, 3 or 4 points of the opposition advantage. For a 3/5 majority these few points are crucial.
But this could backfire badly for chavismo too, my third observation. Chavismo will try its bring in the vote machinery. But if it pushes too hard, if it forces too much of its voters it could create a resentment reaction turning a lot of folks into former voters.
A fourth observation is how many voters the opposition lost to emigration. A million? A million and a half? Another key factor to reach the fabled 3/5.
Etc.
In short as we reach the last stretch of the campaign chavismo is left to rely on Chavez love and the effectiveness of its bring in the vote now that it has very little to pay for it. As for the opposition, deprived of media and campaign money it has to rely on people being upset enough to give it the crucial 3/5.
As you can guess yourself, an election based on emotions is hardy quantifiable in advance. As of today anything is possible, from a small opposition victory to a landslide. But all decided in the very last week.
I am not talking here of the obvious: electoral cheating that has taken this time around a many splendored scope. This December election will be one for the annals of deceit, treachery and plain banditry.
Yet it is very difficult to imagine a scenario where chavismo could get back to trailing the opposition no more than 5% which is enough for them to get a one seat advantage. I have already discussed that a "victory" for the opposition is a 3/5 majority. Nothing less will be good enough to force the country into a fairly negotiated political transition. Actually I am starting to think that a 2/3 parliamentary majority is what the opposition needs to win. Equally for the regime at this point a "victory" is 45% of the vote cast. Anything less will not do as no "revolution" can retain a semblance of credibility with such poor result in vote. Never mind that the military will start having doubts about supporting a plebiscite based regime that cannot even get 40+% of the vote.
This being said, the point of this blog entry is to think about whether the opposition can indeed get a 2 digit leaded, that is 10%+ margin over chavismo. No matter what the polls say it is hard to guess. True, a larger vote count seems now assured, but the margin will be volatile for many reasons.
First, many folks who have voted for Chavez consistently for over a decade will have a hard time to admit that they were wrong even if their heads are now sun baked through food scarcity lines. I, for one, cannot imagine many chavistas hoping happily from chavismo to opposition without an "abstention" election in between. That "abstain first and then vote oppo next" has been the pattern in the slow electoral growth of the opposition. But going from a documented trend to an hypothetical landslide.....
From this first observation you can understand that the second observation will be about the emotional content of the vote. True, the natives are restless but it is my belief that the bulk of chavista "desertion" will be more through abstention than actual switching. This because many of them will decide for real what to do in the very last days of the campaign and no poll can see that. True, such last minute decisions will not affect the outcome but could at the last minute carve out 2, 3 or 4 points of the opposition advantage. For a 3/5 majority these few points are crucial.
But this could backfire badly for chavismo too, my third observation. Chavismo will try its bring in the vote machinery. But if it pushes too hard, if it forces too much of its voters it could create a resentment reaction turning a lot of folks into former voters.
A fourth observation is how many voters the opposition lost to emigration. A million? A million and a half? Another key factor to reach the fabled 3/5.
Etc.
In short as we reach the last stretch of the campaign chavismo is left to rely on Chavez love and the effectiveness of its bring in the vote now that it has very little to pay for it. As for the opposition, deprived of media and campaign money it has to rely on people being upset enough to give it the crucial 3/5.
As you can guess yourself, an election based on emotions is hardy quantifiable in advance. As of today anything is possible, from a small opposition victory to a landslide. But all decided in the very last week.
Sunday, 8 November 2015
Tourism in Venezuela: at your own risk
So I was away for a few days of beach, sand and surf. Not quite.
I have a time share for a yearly week in Margarita which is why there are occasional pics of the area through this blog. Considering that the S.O. does not like the beach and was OK in health, I risked leaving. Next, all the problems I had to endure for a meager 4 days break.
Preparing for the trip:
-. Get your reservation. Since I did not take my usual time slot the resort only confirms my change two weeks ahead. As a consequence since it is difficult to find airline tickets in such short notice, I already lost one day as I could not find flights for the day the week started. Plus, the confirmation coming so late, I had some unavoidable engagement that made me lose two other days. So form the start I had to pay for 7 days while being able to enjoy only 4. I know, I know, little bourgeois disgust, but as you will read they keep piling up.
- Since a lot of taxis will be involved, since you cannot pay them with plastic, since there is no high currency note, then you have to get yourself a big bundle of bank notes of 100, the highest available. The shortest ride will set you back at least 500 VEB so you will need at least 5 banknotes of 100, if you can find them. See, the problem is that there is such a demand for 100 banknote (about 13 USD cents, that is, 0,13, barely a dime) that banks will not provide them that easily. Your best bet is frequent visits to ATM the week before, maxing out your daily withdrawal until you get the wad you need. In my case I estimated 20,000 in cab fair so I had to get 200 banknotes. TWO HUNDRED. An ATM run not from my bank will give me only 6. At my bank ATM I can get 40 (if available). Do the math. And then visualize getting out a wad of bills when you pay your cab and counting patiently dozens of bills......
- Of course, you have to pack very carefully as you do not know whether a missing item can be replaced at your destination. And yet it does not help: in my case my beach tongues broke and I could not find a replacement to my size so I had to get an overpriced pair of Crocs......
The trip:
- Mistakes abound and you cannot correct them easily. My airline screwed up on my ticket and I had to pay an extra 20% at the airport or else. Sure, I can appeal, but that meant I could not board....
- Creatures comfort are scarce. There is no bottled water. So it is a soda or Gatorade for your thirst. I was hungry and I got inside the fast food court aiming at "¡Que Arepa!" which looked clean and appealing. Except that there were out of corn flour so NO Arepa.
- Harassment in miscellaneous ways is present. The worst offender is that in Margarita you have an immigration check point for all. Allegedly to protect the island form the arrival of criminals and drug smugglers. Ask the natives if they feel any safer.....
- You arrive tired and hungry at your hotel. Yet relief is not there. The Caracas office screwed up and you have to wait half an hour until they can finally untangle part of the screw up and give you keys to your room. But since the screw up was big I had also to advance 50 banknotes so I could eat that night until next morning things got settled and I could enjoy my plan as planned (and get back my precious banknotes!!!!!)
The stay:
- So there we are and there is water but the toilet does not flush. So before I unpack I go to the front desk to report and change room. It turns out that there is a shortage of water in Margarita so they dropped the water pressure to save. Since the toilets are of the high pressure type, without reservoir, well, you can only flush in the few hours during the day where pressure is set to normal.
- Flushing my toilet off hours required me to fill up the paper basket with the thread of water from the shower and lug it to the john. 5 stars it wasn't.
- And after the second day the water was cut outright 20 hours a day, so there was not even a water thread.
- Food was actually not bad. Usually I do not get the food plan as I like to go out on occasion, and I eat munchies so as to spend the week dieting and exercising (there is a fridge in the room and I bring a water boiler). Considering the food shortages I decided that this time around I'd better get them to deal with it. But if food was not bad it was showing a total lack of variety. In short, 50% of the offerings were the same all the time and the other 50% alternated one day each.... After 4 days I had already enough of the cafeteria.
- Drinks were included but you'd better have a solid liver. See, over are the days of fancy liquor. Now what you have is basic rum and local made vodka and gin which are, well, at least for me, a fast source of headaches and hangovers. Still, there is also creativity at the bar. Bailey has disappeared in Venezuela as way, way overpriced. So the barman invented a "Margarita Bailey" which is Ponche Crema (kind of bottled eggnog) with a dash of Venezuelan made whisky and coffee liqueur. Well, it sort of worked and became my night cap....
- Of course, with the water crisis you could not have your towels, bed sheets, etc. changed at will. Since the AC was way too cold and too humid you could not dry them properly. Within two days all started to have a weird scent.....
- I went only once out, to make an errand and get a beach thong replacement. So I had to go to a fancy mall (La Vela) where luxury stores exist except that they have a very limited displays and no customers inside anyway. I paid my Crocs three monthly minimum wages (about 40 USD at black market rate, 4700 USD at the official 6,3), But a pair of solid thongs my size, not nice, just solid, would have set me back a monthly minimum wage anyway. If I caved in and bought them is that by experience I know Crocs last more than three times what a pair of solid thongs can last... The question here, of course, is not whether I can truly afford them; the point here is how the poor masses that voted for Chavez and live on minimum wage can afford to put anything between their feet and the dirt.....
Conclusion:
I 'll spare you more details, such as security, blackouts, etc.. I can only tell you that after 24 hours I seriously considered to go back home (the resort was rather empty, by the way). But the Caribbean is there and well....... even if the beaches are eaten up with oil pollution and look more like a Hawaiian volcano beach than a coral sand one........
 |
| Take out the water and it is pretty much like this |
I have a time share for a yearly week in Margarita which is why there are occasional pics of the area through this blog. Considering that the S.O. does not like the beach and was OK in health, I risked leaving. Next, all the problems I had to endure for a meager 4 days break.
Preparing for the trip:
-. Get your reservation. Since I did not take my usual time slot the resort only confirms my change two weeks ahead. As a consequence since it is difficult to find airline tickets in such short notice, I already lost one day as I could not find flights for the day the week started. Plus, the confirmation coming so late, I had some unavoidable engagement that made me lose two other days. So form the start I had to pay for 7 days while being able to enjoy only 4. I know, I know, little bourgeois disgust, but as you will read they keep piling up.
- Since a lot of taxis will be involved, since you cannot pay them with plastic, since there is no high currency note, then you have to get yourself a big bundle of bank notes of 100, the highest available. The shortest ride will set you back at least 500 VEB so you will need at least 5 banknotes of 100, if you can find them. See, the problem is that there is such a demand for 100 banknote (about 13 USD cents, that is, 0,13, barely a dime) that banks will not provide them that easily. Your best bet is frequent visits to ATM the week before, maxing out your daily withdrawal until you get the wad you need. In my case I estimated 20,000 in cab fair so I had to get 200 banknotes. TWO HUNDRED. An ATM run not from my bank will give me only 6. At my bank ATM I can get 40 (if available). Do the math. And then visualize getting out a wad of bills when you pay your cab and counting patiently dozens of bills......
- Of course, you have to pack very carefully as you do not know whether a missing item can be replaced at your destination. And yet it does not help: in my case my beach tongues broke and I could not find a replacement to my size so I had to get an overpriced pair of Crocs......
The trip:
- Mistakes abound and you cannot correct them easily. My airline screwed up on my ticket and I had to pay an extra 20% at the airport or else. Sure, I can appeal, but that meant I could not board....
- Creatures comfort are scarce. There is no bottled water. So it is a soda or Gatorade for your thirst. I was hungry and I got inside the fast food court aiming at "¡Que Arepa!" which looked clean and appealing. Except that there were out of corn flour so NO Arepa.
- Harassment in miscellaneous ways is present. The worst offender is that in Margarita you have an immigration check point for all. Allegedly to protect the island form the arrival of criminals and drug smugglers. Ask the natives if they feel any safer.....
- You arrive tired and hungry at your hotel. Yet relief is not there. The Caracas office screwed up and you have to wait half an hour until they can finally untangle part of the screw up and give you keys to your room. But since the screw up was big I had also to advance 50 banknotes so I could eat that night until next morning things got settled and I could enjoy my plan as planned (and get back my precious banknotes!!!!!)
The stay:
- So there we are and there is water but the toilet does not flush. So before I unpack I go to the front desk to report and change room. It turns out that there is a shortage of water in Margarita so they dropped the water pressure to save. Since the toilets are of the high pressure type, without reservoir, well, you can only flush in the few hours during the day where pressure is set to normal.
- Flushing my toilet off hours required me to fill up the paper basket with the thread of water from the shower and lug it to the john. 5 stars it wasn't.
- And after the second day the water was cut outright 20 hours a day, so there was not even a water thread.
- Food was actually not bad. Usually I do not get the food plan as I like to go out on occasion, and I eat munchies so as to spend the week dieting and exercising (there is a fridge in the room and I bring a water boiler). Considering the food shortages I decided that this time around I'd better get them to deal with it. But if food was not bad it was showing a total lack of variety. In short, 50% of the offerings were the same all the time and the other 50% alternated one day each.... After 4 days I had already enough of the cafeteria.
- Drinks were included but you'd better have a solid liver. See, over are the days of fancy liquor. Now what you have is basic rum and local made vodka and gin which are, well, at least for me, a fast source of headaches and hangovers. Still, there is also creativity at the bar. Bailey has disappeared in Venezuela as way, way overpriced. So the barman invented a "Margarita Bailey" which is Ponche Crema (kind of bottled eggnog) with a dash of Venezuelan made whisky and coffee liqueur. Well, it sort of worked and became my night cap....
- Of course, with the water crisis you could not have your towels, bed sheets, etc. changed at will. Since the AC was way too cold and too humid you could not dry them properly. Within two days all started to have a weird scent.....
- I went only once out, to make an errand and get a beach thong replacement. So I had to go to a fancy mall (La Vela) where luxury stores exist except that they have a very limited displays and no customers inside anyway. I paid my Crocs three monthly minimum wages (about 40 USD at black market rate, 4700 USD at the official 6,3), But a pair of solid thongs my size, not nice, just solid, would have set me back a monthly minimum wage anyway. If I caved in and bought them is that by experience I know Crocs last more than three times what a pair of solid thongs can last... The question here, of course, is not whether I can truly afford them; the point here is how the poor masses that voted for Chavez and live on minimum wage can afford to put anything between their feet and the dirt.....
Conclusion:
I 'll spare you more details, such as security, blackouts, etc.. I can only tell you that after 24 hours I seriously considered to go back home (the resort was rather empty, by the way). But the Caribbean is there and well....... even if the beaches are eaten up with oil pollution and look more like a Hawaiian volcano beach than a coral sand one........
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