I have been avoiding it, but it is time to think about what these last weeks mean for Venezuela. Whether we like it, political tectonics are at work and January announces itself as a very difficult month, though January may start before December 31. To try to simplify this a little bit let's start with what apparently not even tectonic forces can change.
The premise of the political crisis is that a group of gangsters have taken over the country and there is no way they are going to forgo control because they know that any improvement in governance means that they will end up in jail. It is that simple, it explains it all. It even explains why the outside world is not doing much because they know that gangsters can only be disposed off through violence. After all, the democratic West did nothing for Aleppo, why should we assume they would do something for Caracas? I am looking at you Obama, by the way.
The other factor that is not changing and makes the above one the worse is the economic crisis. The nature of this one at this point is such that only a change of personnel at Miraflores Palace can offer a faint hope of improvement. What happened in December with state sponsored confiscations, reaction looting and currency debacle should carve that in.
Thus we can discuss the options for each side.
Chavismo has a Maduro problem. His erratic behavior and his absolute incompetence keeps making the crisis worse by the day. Until now he had the legitimacy that Chavez gave him which was replaced fast by the need for a figure head to preside over the country while corrupts, gangs, Cubans and the like fought it out over controlling Venezuela. This will not do anymore.
Maduro (or the people he spoke for) have made two grievous mistakes. The first one was to pass a budget without it being voted as a law by the National Assembly. That unconstitutional fiat was bad enough, as no one would lend money without a legal process of state guarantee. But it got worse for would be lenders, if any. The stupendous crass management of the banknote change early this month has killed any credit or authority he may have had inside chavismo. That is, deciding that the 100 banknote was illegal, then shortening the time for exchange and deposit the notes, and THEN offer a spectacular neck breaking U-turn once rioting started is the kind of political mistake that will kill the love of your most ardent supporters. While making sure that no one will lend you a penny. Not a slight petty problem for a bankrupt country.
Maduro is done, he cannot rule anymore. In any country with a semblant of normal he would have resigned by now, or asked to do so by his own party. Nobody will willingly obey him anymore. For Maduro and chavismo there are only two paths ahead, either go the massive repression way as of right now, or resign mid January to let a newly named vice president, likely a general, to deal with the last two years of the presidential term. I am going on record that by March first 2017 we will either have a new president or hundreds of new political prisoners with possibly hundreds of killed folks. Though the two are not exclusive, unfortunately....
On the opposition side the ability to resit and offer solutions seems gone to naught. The dialogue forced upon it by Obama though Thomas Shannon has proven its undoing. It should not have been so but it has. We have reached the point were the leadership of the opposition is admitting that they underestimated the resolve of the regime. Clearly, they would have benefited from reading this blog.
The reason for such paralysis is that some inside the opposition alliance will not agree on any hard measure of active resistance unless the result ensures them to be on top. If that is not possible then these people have no major problem in helping the regime survive until the time comes for them to be on top. How extensive is this inside the opposition leadership I do not know. But it is clear now that the local political Zulia group, UNT, whose national hopes have failed, will satisfy itself with its leader, Rosales, back in the streets and the new governor of Zulia from its ranks. UNT is the first clear suspect but I am afraid it is not the lone one.
The debacle of the new Electoral Board election was the main evidence for that more than duplicitous role of UNT. In the end it does not matter who is directing the Electoral Board CNE since there is no election in sight. But the point of UNT dealing behind the opposition back was painfully put forward. That was way worse than who ever is sitting at the CNE.
How can the opposition alliance MUD recover from these recent setbacks escapes me. They had a 2/3 majority seats and, well, they could do nothing about it. But that I can still understand, considering that they are dealing with gangsters. In fact I even made excuses for them through the year. What I cannot understand is that a year passed and there has been no red line left uncrossed, no Little Big Horn moment, nothing to show. And I suspect that even the little bit of international good will harvested in the first 6 months of 2016 has been wasted. With Trump election and a shifting of foreign paradigms I wonder if anyone will care much about Venezuela's fate anymore. As far as I can see it, Trump administration is not only willing to revive the Cuban embargo but will have no qualms including in it Venezuela letting Colombia and Brazil deal with the millions of refugees. Venezuela, the next refugee crisis? See if Trump cares a shit. A country full of Machados.....
So now what?
Monday, 26 December 2016
Saturday, 24 December 2016
Such a sad Christmas
This is the saddest Christmas I have ever seen in Venezuela. Admittedly Christmas may be sad for some according to family or health issues, but the country as a while still somehow manages to get into the spirit. But this year people gave up. They just gave up.
How could it be otherwise? People do not even have enough cash, literally, for shopping the Christmas essentials. In Venezuela that would be to build up an Hallaca, the Christmas dish. And even if you had enough banknotes, or a well furbished checking account, there are so many staples that cannot be found or are so far out of reach that many this year will have no hallaca on their plates. And many will simply have little on their plate. Period.
Last week was a frantic obstacle course for yours truly, combining a chimio session for the S.O. to buy enough food basics to hold out until January 15 at the very least. Thus I saw Caracas first hand.
Christmas decorations, to begin with, are limited to perfunctory ones in banks and the like. Rare are the private homes or appartements with any light hanging in front. In fact, in my street only one house has the full gaudy display. NO OTHER neighbor put even a light on a window.
But if you think that my choice of starting with decorations is frivolous, let me tell you that it is on purpose, to delay my writing on the other nasty stuff. The lines have been humongous all week, For food, for a few banknotes at the banks, What was worse is that the regime after stealing all the toys from the main Caracas importer has decided to also steal the clothes from EPK, a business on children clothes, etc. I cannot tell you how pathetic, how a feel-terrible experience is to watch hundreds of people standing in long lines to benefit of that loot. What a miserable populace this country has become.
Traffic has been almost as horrendous as in normal days. Few left on holiday. Few can travel over seas. Few will bother to travel visit their relatives as the food and services situation outside of Caracas is much worse than in Caracas. It would be an unfair imposition on your relatives. You'll have to do without family reunion this year.
Sadder still is the amount of people scavenging, everywhere it seems. The worst for me was when I stopped at a given pharmacy in the never ending search for this or that. When I came back to my car I was startled to see somehow sitting down at the opposite corner of my car. Having been robbed three times this year I was duly concerned. And then I realized that the chap, a late teenager, skinny but with a baseball cap and bermudas, was eating something he had found in the trash bags next on the sidewalk. I do not know how I did not puke. Maybe I was so angry, with such a need to cry that it cancelled....
This is really getting awful, and the "needs" of the season make you more aware of your everyday misery and the hopelessness that settles everywhere. Even the regime in spite of a continued stream of cheap propaganda with people dancing folk dances, I suppose to let us get used tot he idea that soon we will lose communication with the outside world, cannot convince "el pueblo" who looks the saddest. How is it possible that you spend December 23 in line to get, say, a liter of oil? That there will be nothing for the kids? Not even food in some cases? What TV propaganda show can make up for that? How cynical the regime can get?
But Christmas is also a thanksgiving time for those of us who live outside the US. I am thankful that I get to spend one more with my SO and that I ruined myself but was able to get him the curent chimio treatment. He will not join, yet, the list of those who have stopped treatment in a country where you cannot even find morphine to assuage your last days.
I am thankful that my elderly parents are safe and confortable in France and got used to the idea that they will never be able to return to Venezuela. In fact, in their little Podunk they did manage to find all what it took to build the Venezuelan Christmas plate that so few of us will be able to have this Christmas. ALL INGREDIENTS in a country that prefers foie gras to exotic food for Christmas, amen of hallacas.
I am thankful that I still have family here though one niece left this year and a cousin family will leave early next year. In a little bit over an hour we will still manage to be 9, trying to forget a little bit drinking one of our three last bottles of French champagne.
Through the years we all will be together
If the fates allow
And my dog is grateful that the country is so bankrupt that there is no fireworks this year. All pets are thankful, for once.
The fates have reached us.
Still, for thus that are away, for the families, the hundred of thousands of broken Venezuelan families, for the faithful readers of this blog, may you have a good Christmas, make me live vicariously.
Alpha es et O
How could it be otherwise? People do not even have enough cash, literally, for shopping the Christmas essentials. In Venezuela that would be to build up an Hallaca, the Christmas dish. And even if you had enough banknotes, or a well furbished checking account, there are so many staples that cannot be found or are so far out of reach that many this year will have no hallaca on their plates. And many will simply have little on their plate. Period.
Last week was a frantic obstacle course for yours truly, combining a chimio session for the S.O. to buy enough food basics to hold out until January 15 at the very least. Thus I saw Caracas first hand.
Christmas decorations, to begin with, are limited to perfunctory ones in banks and the like. Rare are the private homes or appartements with any light hanging in front. In fact, in my street only one house has the full gaudy display. NO OTHER neighbor put even a light on a window.
But if you think that my choice of starting with decorations is frivolous, let me tell you that it is on purpose, to delay my writing on the other nasty stuff. The lines have been humongous all week, For food, for a few banknotes at the banks, What was worse is that the regime after stealing all the toys from the main Caracas importer has decided to also steal the clothes from EPK, a business on children clothes, etc. I cannot tell you how pathetic, how a feel-terrible experience is to watch hundreds of people standing in long lines to benefit of that loot. What a miserable populace this country has become.
Traffic has been almost as horrendous as in normal days. Few left on holiday. Few can travel over seas. Few will bother to travel visit their relatives as the food and services situation outside of Caracas is much worse than in Caracas. It would be an unfair imposition on your relatives. You'll have to do without family reunion this year.
Sadder still is the amount of people scavenging, everywhere it seems. The worst for me was when I stopped at a given pharmacy in the never ending search for this or that. When I came back to my car I was startled to see somehow sitting down at the opposite corner of my car. Having been robbed three times this year I was duly concerned. And then I realized that the chap, a late teenager, skinny but with a baseball cap and bermudas, was eating something he had found in the trash bags next on the sidewalk. I do not know how I did not puke. Maybe I was so angry, with such a need to cry that it cancelled....
This is really getting awful, and the "needs" of the season make you more aware of your everyday misery and the hopelessness that settles everywhere. Even the regime in spite of a continued stream of cheap propaganda with people dancing folk dances, I suppose to let us get used tot he idea that soon we will lose communication with the outside world, cannot convince "el pueblo" who looks the saddest. How is it possible that you spend December 23 in line to get, say, a liter of oil? That there will be nothing for the kids? Not even food in some cases? What TV propaganda show can make up for that? How cynical the regime can get?
But Christmas is also a thanksgiving time for those of us who live outside the US. I am thankful that I get to spend one more with my SO and that I ruined myself but was able to get him the curent chimio treatment. He will not join, yet, the list of those who have stopped treatment in a country where you cannot even find morphine to assuage your last days.
 |
| Not in Venezuela |
I am thankful that my elderly parents are safe and confortable in France and got used to the idea that they will never be able to return to Venezuela. In fact, in their little Podunk they did manage to find all what it took to build the Venezuelan Christmas plate that so few of us will be able to have this Christmas. ALL INGREDIENTS in a country that prefers foie gras to exotic food for Christmas, amen of hallacas.
I am thankful that I still have family here though one niece left this year and a cousin family will leave early next year. In a little bit over an hour we will still manage to be 9, trying to forget a little bit drinking one of our three last bottles of French champagne.
Through the years we all will be together
If the fates allow
And my dog is grateful that the country is so bankrupt that there is no fireworks this year. All pets are thankful, for once.
The fates have reached us.
Still, for thus that are away, for the families, the hundred of thousands of broken Venezuelan families, for the faithful readers of this blog, may you have a good Christmas, make me live vicariously.
Alpha es et O
Friday, 16 December 2016
The Grinch that DID steal Christmas
On November first Nicolas Maduro announced that Christmas had started and he went as far as already lightening up the traditional cross on the Avila mountain which is normally turned on December 1. Well, since then he did his utmost to wreck the Christmas of joy he promised in spite of shortages, crime and what not. After what happened this week, he has definitely wrecked Christmas for all, without possible redemption by December 24.
The news of today are dramatic, and even tragic as there is at least one dead protester/looter. At this point people are hungry and frustrated enough so the line between looter and protester is easily crossed.
Reports of looting and protests from all around Venezuela came in. They included even the looting of banks in the belief that the regime kept inside the new bills that are not appearing anywhere. And that is the crux of the problem, the regime has not made available the proposed new bills as it was taken away all the ones that were the blood line of a wrecked economy.
For your understanding. A large portion of Venezuelan everyday economy is run through cash transactions, in particular outside of Caracas. There is a very large sector of the population that does not hold a real job and do not even have a savings account. And even if they have one, they probably do not have an ATM card (not that this matters much as ATM are not delivering bills these days). And in many small towns and villages there may not even be a bank, and if they have electronic payment points those are limited to very few stores and do not work well due to the distance and bad communications with rerouters and the like.
As a consequence of that a large chunk of the population did not deposit their 100 banknotes because they had nowhere to deposit them. They had to wait for today when the banknote exchange would officially start at the state owned banks and the Central Bank. But it did not happen and the population were furious when the only thing offered, if at all, was a certificate of deposit to be honored when the new bills would arrive. How would these people buy food? Take the bus? Buy something for their child's fever? Even less, prepare for Christmas? No wonder we had serious stuff happening all through the day (I re tweeted some, you can find them on my time line on the right).
What is quite amazing is how tone deaf the regime has been. Last night Maduro pushed his chutzpah at reducing the number of days allowed for exchange at the Central Bank, probably assuming that most people had deposited. It is simply amazing that a government of "el pueblo" ignores the real life conditions of that "el pueblo". But tonight we learned that in spite of Maduro words the Central Bank will open this week end... We'll see, and at any rate in an unsafe area of Caracas at 10 PM people were in line at the Central Bank building. Also, additional proof of the regime utter mess is announcing that the subway would be free which is like applying a small bandage on a large open broken bleeding leg.
To finish this post, there is no point in dwelling on how fucked up the regime is, how lost Christmas are, you just need to watch the news or read twitter to understand the magnitude of the disaster. Journalists are having a field day with a furious population that has unusually harsh words against Maduro. Let's instead try to perceive why the regime took such an idiotic, ill planned measure.
From what I can gather, the leftist economic counselors of Maduro, from Cuba and Spain Podemos, suggested that a spiraling black market rate of the dollar could be countered by merely reducing the monetary mass. That simplistic of a theory is believed, ignoring that the structural inflation of Venezuela is its lack of production due to a decade and a half of wrong headed economic decisions. To which you may add internal chavista infighting where a gang was willing to risk such a disaster in order to punish another gang. There were probably other motivations such as increasing control over the populace by making them more dependent on the government by the mere fact of monetary scarcity, so to speak. Indeed there was a tiny grain of truth in it. Incorporating the new higher denomination bills would have been a sudden increase in monetary mass without support, and hence accrued inflation. But the solution was a slow incorporation as the old bills were removed. Not what happened.
So why did the government act so brutally at possibly the very worst time? This is were the conspiracy theories take hold. Some say that the crazy measures may have been ignored by those who knew better in order to speed up the end of Maduro. Others, that Maduro felt that by doing such a change was an irresistible way to show resolve and vision. The border mafias could be accused, The conspiratorial NGO treachery could be advanced with hoards of 100 bills in Switzerland vaults, etc. The nincompoopier the better. While at the same time slowing down inflation long enough for, say, a snap election advantage.
I do not know whether inflation will be stopped, My guess is that December inflation instead of being 30% may end up being a mere 20%, only to roar back in January. The black market rate did indeed dropped by half but that is no surprise. There was a speculative component to it. But what Maduro cannot stop is that there are Colombians that need to buy bolivars to pay for their businesses inside Venezuela and as such they need to sell Pesos even though nobody right now has the cash for them. Hence the temporary drop in the black market quotes. But just you wait. That the black market rate is still the double of what it was two months ago is an early sign of failure.
Had Maduro listened to any one else than the commie hacks that surround him, he would have been told that as long as the lingering structural causes of inflation were not dealt with it the only thing he could get through crunching monetary mass was a brief, very brief lull in inflation. But never an end to it. That and the hubris of wanting to be in control of a general situation that has escaped his hands explains while he took such a gamble that even if well prepared would not have turned out well. Instead it brought upon his regime a new disaster and probably the loss of a significant chunk of whatever support he may have still had.
Now let's see if the opposition can cash in that mess.
The news of today are dramatic, and even tragic as there is at least one dead protester/looter. At this point people are hungry and frustrated enough so the line between looter and protester is easily crossed.
Reports of looting and protests from all around Venezuela came in. They included even the looting of banks in the belief that the regime kept inside the new bills that are not appearing anywhere. And that is the crux of the problem, the regime has not made available the proposed new bills as it was taken away all the ones that were the blood line of a wrecked economy.
For your understanding. A large portion of Venezuelan everyday economy is run through cash transactions, in particular outside of Caracas. There is a very large sector of the population that does not hold a real job and do not even have a savings account. And even if they have one, they probably do not have an ATM card (not that this matters much as ATM are not delivering bills these days). And in many small towns and villages there may not even be a bank, and if they have electronic payment points those are limited to very few stores and do not work well due to the distance and bad communications with rerouters and the like.
As a consequence of that a large chunk of the population did not deposit their 100 banknotes because they had nowhere to deposit them. They had to wait for today when the banknote exchange would officially start at the state owned banks and the Central Bank. But it did not happen and the population were furious when the only thing offered, if at all, was a certificate of deposit to be honored when the new bills would arrive. How would these people buy food? Take the bus? Buy something for their child's fever? Even less, prepare for Christmas? No wonder we had serious stuff happening all through the day (I re tweeted some, you can find them on my time line on the right).
What is quite amazing is how tone deaf the regime has been. Last night Maduro pushed his chutzpah at reducing the number of days allowed for exchange at the Central Bank, probably assuming that most people had deposited. It is simply amazing that a government of "el pueblo" ignores the real life conditions of that "el pueblo". But tonight we learned that in spite of Maduro words the Central Bank will open this week end... We'll see, and at any rate in an unsafe area of Caracas at 10 PM people were in line at the Central Bank building. Also, additional proof of the regime utter mess is announcing that the subway would be free which is like applying a small bandage on a large open broken bleeding leg.
To finish this post, there is no point in dwelling on how fucked up the regime is, how lost Christmas are, you just need to watch the news or read twitter to understand the magnitude of the disaster. Journalists are having a field day with a furious population that has unusually harsh words against Maduro. Let's instead try to perceive why the regime took such an idiotic, ill planned measure.
From what I can gather, the leftist economic counselors of Maduro, from Cuba and Spain Podemos, suggested that a spiraling black market rate of the dollar could be countered by merely reducing the monetary mass. That simplistic of a theory is believed, ignoring that the structural inflation of Venezuela is its lack of production due to a decade and a half of wrong headed economic decisions. To which you may add internal chavista infighting where a gang was willing to risk such a disaster in order to punish another gang. There were probably other motivations such as increasing control over the populace by making them more dependent on the government by the mere fact of monetary scarcity, so to speak. Indeed there was a tiny grain of truth in it. Incorporating the new higher denomination bills would have been a sudden increase in monetary mass without support, and hence accrued inflation. But the solution was a slow incorporation as the old bills were removed. Not what happened.
So why did the government act so brutally at possibly the very worst time? This is were the conspiracy theories take hold. Some say that the crazy measures may have been ignored by those who knew better in order to speed up the end of Maduro. Others, that Maduro felt that by doing such a change was an irresistible way to show resolve and vision. The border mafias could be accused, The conspiratorial NGO treachery could be advanced with hoards of 100 bills in Switzerland vaults, etc. The nincompoopier the better. While at the same time slowing down inflation long enough for, say, a snap election advantage.
I do not know whether inflation will be stopped, My guess is that December inflation instead of being 30% may end up being a mere 20%, only to roar back in January. The black market rate did indeed dropped by half but that is no surprise. There was a speculative component to it. But what Maduro cannot stop is that there are Colombians that need to buy bolivars to pay for their businesses inside Venezuela and as such they need to sell Pesos even though nobody right now has the cash for them. Hence the temporary drop in the black market quotes. But just you wait. That the black market rate is still the double of what it was two months ago is an early sign of failure.
Had Maduro listened to any one else than the commie hacks that surround him, he would have been told that as long as the lingering structural causes of inflation were not dealt with it the only thing he could get through crunching monetary mass was a brief, very brief lull in inflation. But never an end to it. That and the hubris of wanting to be in control of a general situation that has escaped his hands explains while he took such a gamble that even if well prepared would not have turned out well. Instead it brought upon his regime a new disaster and probably the loss of a significant chunk of whatever support he may have still had.
Now let's see if the opposition can cash in that mess.
Tuesday, 13 December 2016
And give us our everyday chaos
This could well be the chavista prayer because these people truly thrive in chaotic conditions. Well, not always but they certainly manage better than most.
As expected it was pandemonium today. Banks were closed Monday as per legal banking holiday several Mondays a year. So we had to wait for this morning to appreciate fully the effect of the crazy measure of last Sunday when Maduro annulled the 100 Bs, banknote, the highest denomination of a country deep in inflation. Let me put it this way: the bank next to our office had a long line outside all day long, and that line was almost as long as the line for toilet paper that happened to arrive at the grocery store next door.
Let's not get into the minutiae. The regime already backpedaled some by extending the time at which people will be able to deposit their bills, though not wanting to put Maduro into further ridicule the fiction of the 72 hours validity of the bill was kept. Yet many as of yesterday refuses to accept 100 bills. Though I suspect that at least some will keep accepting bills until Thursday now that they know they will be able to deposit these next week without having to trek downtown Caracas to the Central Bank offices.
What has not happened is a coherent explanation for the measure. If you take individually any of the excuses presented by the intense propaganda machine, each and everyone can be taken down with ease. At this point my initial supposition written last Sunday is that this craziness originates into some intra-chavista gang dispute. Since they are all narko-crooks, they have no qualm in taking down the country with them if they can get their loot back, or avenge themselves, or ruin the guys that conned them. This is the way mafia wars work out.
If you need proof you just need to observe that in spite of the calamitous situation of the country the high Court TSJ managed once again today to flout the constitution by naming the new Electoral Board above the will of the National Assembly. This story would deserve a full post so let's not get bogged down in that issue. My point here is that the country is falling appart, literally, and these people can only think about political treachery to keep their hold on power. That is their lone obsession. This example illustrates the issue the more so that elections are not even a solution to the problem anymore. Who truly cares who leads the CNE at this point?
That deconnexion of the regime with the country reality is becoming an embarrassing gap for a regime that was born out of their alleged love of the lumpen. A deconnexion that is shared, by the way, with many of the opposition elites. One of the things I wrote Sunday night was the impact of the measure on the large portion of Venezuelan society that lives on cash, the lower economic classes that will suffer the most from the withdrawal of the 100 bills. But you had to wait for Monday to have this considered by opposition writers, most focusing first on money loads, reserves, amount of banknotes and other brainy issues that do not make an arepa appear on your plate this week. In that way bizarrely rejoining the regime equally disconnected claims of economic agression and contraband of paper notes to Switzerland.......
At least the regime today started realizing its gross political mistake among its followers, For example they have decided to force banks to open accounts with a mere ID card so people can deposit. And they of course decided to extend the exchange period though not doing the real measure that would have helped them the most with their natural electorate, to disown Maduro 72 days death certificate of the 100 bill. But the regime has a bigger problem on its hand. Among the news and videos circulating today on twitter we saw the looting downtown Caracas of a corn flour truck. From Barquisimeto we saw a furious crowd in line at a bank forcing the Nazional Guard to withdraw the protection they offered to some people trying to bring inside for deposit boxes of bills, and of course trying to pass in front of the line under the cover of the Guard. They had to retreat. These are sure signs of the chaos ahead. And the regime, I am afraid, may not be able to control it to its advantage this time around.
-----------------------------------
Bank protest of the day
Truck looting of the day
As expected it was pandemonium today. Banks were closed Monday as per legal banking holiday several Mondays a year. So we had to wait for this morning to appreciate fully the effect of the crazy measure of last Sunday when Maduro annulled the 100 Bs, banknote, the highest denomination of a country deep in inflation. Let me put it this way: the bank next to our office had a long line outside all day long, and that line was almost as long as the line for toilet paper that happened to arrive at the grocery store next door.
Let's not get into the minutiae. The regime already backpedaled some by extending the time at which people will be able to deposit their bills, though not wanting to put Maduro into further ridicule the fiction of the 72 hours validity of the bill was kept. Yet many as of yesterday refuses to accept 100 bills. Though I suspect that at least some will keep accepting bills until Thursday now that they know they will be able to deposit these next week without having to trek downtown Caracas to the Central Bank offices.
What has not happened is a coherent explanation for the measure. If you take individually any of the excuses presented by the intense propaganda machine, each and everyone can be taken down with ease. At this point my initial supposition written last Sunday is that this craziness originates into some intra-chavista gang dispute. Since they are all narko-crooks, they have no qualm in taking down the country with them if they can get their loot back, or avenge themselves, or ruin the guys that conned them. This is the way mafia wars work out.
If you need proof you just need to observe that in spite of the calamitous situation of the country the high Court TSJ managed once again today to flout the constitution by naming the new Electoral Board above the will of the National Assembly. This story would deserve a full post so let's not get bogged down in that issue. My point here is that the country is falling appart, literally, and these people can only think about political treachery to keep their hold on power. That is their lone obsession. This example illustrates the issue the more so that elections are not even a solution to the problem anymore. Who truly cares who leads the CNE at this point?
That deconnexion of the regime with the country reality is becoming an embarrassing gap for a regime that was born out of their alleged love of the lumpen. A deconnexion that is shared, by the way, with many of the opposition elites. One of the things I wrote Sunday night was the impact of the measure on the large portion of Venezuelan society that lives on cash, the lower economic classes that will suffer the most from the withdrawal of the 100 bills. But you had to wait for Monday to have this considered by opposition writers, most focusing first on money loads, reserves, amount of banknotes and other brainy issues that do not make an arepa appear on your plate this week. In that way bizarrely rejoining the regime equally disconnected claims of economic agression and contraband of paper notes to Switzerland.......
At least the regime today started realizing its gross political mistake among its followers, For example they have decided to force banks to open accounts with a mere ID card so people can deposit. And they of course decided to extend the exchange period though not doing the real measure that would have helped them the most with their natural electorate, to disown Maduro 72 days death certificate of the 100 bill. But the regime has a bigger problem on its hand. Among the news and videos circulating today on twitter we saw the looting downtown Caracas of a corn flour truck. From Barquisimeto we saw a furious crowd in line at a bank forcing the Nazional Guard to withdraw the protection they offered to some people trying to bring inside for deposit boxes of bills, and of course trying to pass in front of the line under the cover of the Guard. They had to retreat. These are sure signs of the chaos ahead. And the regime, I am afraid, may not be able to control it to its advantage this time around.
-----------------------------------
Bank protest of the day
The Nazional Guard tries to exchange its own boxes of banknotes (how come they have such?). The people block access to the bank! https://t.co/k1Qb67t6RF— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) 13 de diciembre de 2016
Truck looting of the day
Meanwhile back at the 100 Downtown Plaza Venezuela Ranch, let's loot a truck just in case my banknotes are worthless https://t.co/bdEPXU0YuE— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) 13 de diciembre de 2016
Sunday, 11 December 2016
Deliberate chaos: the first post modern cashless society. Not!
There are so many things that need to be discussed but my lifestyle, so to speak, forbids me to find the time for the blog. Yet tonight I must write to describe what is probably the most unjust, craziest, measure the regime has taken to date. And they did take a lot of those in the past. But this one will hurt so many poor people that the mind reels at the idea on how a regime intentionally for the people has become now a regime against the people.
Today's bomb shell is the demonetization of the 100 tender in Venezuela. Why, oh why?
The governor of Aragua, famed drug trafficker suspect cum links to Hezbollah and what not says it is a conspiracy from the US treasury to steal all of our 100 Bs, bills to provoke economic chaos.
I, for one, think that the US has much easier ways to achieve this. Actually, the US does not need to do anything, just sitting and watching is enough to implode the regime.
This being said, it is quite possible that there are hoards of 100 bills here and there. After all, not all drug traffic receipts can be stored in USD crisp greenbacks. Black market also takes its share of the 100 notes. But in both cases any hoarding is temporal: drug traffickers, black marketers and Colombian mafias are business people, admittedly in their own sick way. For them it makes no sense to hoard a currency that loses a couple of % value points A DAY!
And then there is that:
With the amounts of bills the regime has printed how many tons of paper money do you need to hoard to shoot a hit at the Venezuelan economy? Corruption and mafia traffic cannot be an excuse. Unless.... this is being used for some inside chavismo to hit others inside chavismo since chavismo is by itself now no more than a mafia.
Since there is no logical explanation and that the truth will eventually emerge, let's focus on the consequences, dires according to serious economists already on record.
As of tomorrow and as long as the replacing currency is not provided these are the things that will be very difficult to do, because there is not enough low denomination bills (2, 5, 10, 20 and 50 which itself is worth barely a penny) to pay for routine cash stuff. You will need to carry wads of bills, if you can find them, for the following:
Today's bomb shell is the demonetization of the 100 tender in Venezuela. Why, oh why?
The governor of Aragua, famed drug trafficker suspect cum links to Hezbollah and what not says it is a conspiracy from the US treasury to steal all of our 100 Bs, bills to provoke economic chaos.
Presidente @NicolasMaduro denuncia operación mafiosa dirigida por el departamento del tesoro de EEUU para robarnos los billetes de 100bs.— Tareck El Aissami (@TareckPSUV) 11 de diciembre de 2016
I, for one, think that the US has much easier ways to achieve this. Actually, the US does not need to do anything, just sitting and watching is enough to implode the regime.
This being said, it is quite possible that there are hoards of 100 bills here and there. After all, not all drug traffic receipts can be stored in USD crisp greenbacks. Black market also takes its share of the 100 notes. But in both cases any hoarding is temporal: drug traffickers, black marketers and Colombian mafias are business people, admittedly in their own sick way. For them it makes no sense to hoard a currency that loses a couple of % value points A DAY!
And then there is that:
Remember the $100s of millions #Venezuela spent importing 100-bolo bills? They're all being taken outa circulation. https://t.co/0p1Ji4xUHp— Kejal પ્રવીણ Vyas (@kejalvyas) 11 de diciembre de 2016
With the amounts of bills the regime has printed how many tons of paper money do you need to hoard to shoot a hit at the Venezuelan economy? Corruption and mafia traffic cannot be an excuse. Unless.... this is being used for some inside chavismo to hit others inside chavismo since chavismo is by itself now no more than a mafia.
Since there is no logical explanation and that the truth will eventually emerge, let's focus on the consequences, dires according to serious economists already on record.
As of tomorrow and as long as the replacing currency is not provided these are the things that will be very difficult to do, because there is not enough low denomination bills (2, 5, 10, 20 and 50 which itself is worth barely a penny) to pay for routine cash stuff. You will need to carry wads of bills, if you can find them, for the following:
- Gas for your car, newspaper, candies, anything that is not attached to a ATM or cash point or whatever accepts your debit card (never mind that these devices have been collapsing recently due to the lack of paper money, by the way).
- Services like the grocery bag boy, your cleaning lady, parking, small tips, etc. are not possible as of tomorrow. Note that the recipients of these cash payments are in the lower economical ranks of the population and are taking a direct hit in their ability to purchase their food....
- You cannot buy in the informal market food items that you cannot buy at the store because either it is out of such sundries, or you were at work and could not take the time for the 1 to 2 hours requirement of standing on line at the grocery store. "bachaqueros" or small time black marketeers sell for cash.
- Never mind that the re-sellers, who make a living out of it, will not be making a living. They will simply hoard whatever they have until the new banknotes arrive. More scarcity, and of course higher prices to compensate their losses when they start selling again.
- You cannot buy bread if you do not have an ATM card, for whatever reason you do not have it. Then again bread is getting scarce these days so the problem may actually be worse than the lack of cash.
- Some businesses will take a direct hit, the more so we are in the holidays season. Folks like the newsstand guy will see sales near zero for days.
- Whole classes of people will be affected and stand to lose money outright. The most vulnerable are retirees that only hold a savings account and who work on cash withdrawals from the bank. Many do not have or cannot operate or are afraid of debit cards that in some case only work for their bank ATM machines I understand (mine works for all but I understand that this is not the case for everyone).
- Never mind the ill informed that will not think about exchanging their 100 bills on time. Outright robbery by the state out of the most vulnerable people.
- Purchasing cheap medicine will become difficult for many people.
- Etc. you get the picture.
In short, the measure to suppress the 100 bill without a mechanism for speedy exchange in an impossible to fulfill timetable is, well, a truly inhumane measure, a gross attack on the human rights of the Venezuelan people. Of course, boligarchs may be somewhat inconvenienced but not affected. El Pueblo? Fuck El Pueblo!
Yours truly is not one for conspiracy theories, but I am starting to think that maybe the regime is seeding chaos on purpose. Let's count: the killing of the recall election, the killing of the dialogue, the inability to replenish shelves for the holiday season, the removal of cash from the hand of people, etc.... The combination of all of this is already turning the country into an administrative chaos. Can this be truly done on purpose? After all chaos is a good excuse for people not to talk about the real issues, and then if they do talk about that chaos may justify repression.
Thursday, 1 December 2016
Dialogue ante-mortem
I am going to comment a short note by Carlos Ocariz, the mayor of Eastern Caracas, a masterpiece of political conciseness. This will explain perfectly why there is no hope that a dialogue can ever happen between the regime and anyone else.
Translation, step by step, with my comments.
To the Vatican, mediators and the people of Venezuela.
Note: it is not even directed to the regime. Only the parts that have a certain level of seriousness, or for whom a lot is at stake. As is implied in the rest of the message, the MUD at this point does not care anymore about what the regime has to say on those matters, it has become a waste of time to listen.
We ratify the coherence and dedication to the [good] fight considering the MUD communique
There is no need to read the detailed communique of the opposition umbrella group, MUD. This note is eloquent enough as you'll see. Ocariz states unambiguously that this is a fight, and henceforth the dialogue was an attempt at a truce. But the causes of the good fight are still present. He also implies that the ways of his own people, the Primero Justicia party, are their own but that they share the common core and goals with the other players of the MUD. In short, we are united no matter what people may have speculated. And our union is way stronger than what anyone may think, in particular the regime.
It is inhumane that the government, in front of the crisis it created and we all Venezuelan suffer [the consequences], does not fulfill its engagements. The Vatican and the mediators bear witness of our dedicated efforts.
The Vatican and the said mediators are pushed against the wall. Let's see if they dare to say that the opposition did not do its best, that it should do more. And were they to attempt to say such thing, a further crass moves to favor the regime blaming the opposition, they better be ready to show the evidence. That is: the credibility of the Vatican and the mediators is what is at stake now. The Vatican and its Pope, mind you!
Also it bears underlining that if the opposition accuses the regime of the crisis, what cannot be argued is that ALL Venezuelans are suffering its consequences. For this reason alone the regime should try harder than what it does. If it ever tried, for that matter.
The internal divisions between government groups blocks them from honoring their word, and Venezuelans cannot be subjected of the contradictions/vagaries within the government/regime [exact word to translate not available].
What we all knew, the problem is within chavismo. What the opposition points out is to the direct problem of chavismo, that one group, led by Diosdado Cabello, wants no negotiation, no compromise, whatsoever. There may or may not be more than two groups of power within chavismo, but the one that is blocking any solution, that is aggravating the crisis, is the group of Diosdado Cabello who knows that their final destiny is jail because of their involvement in drug trafficking. And that crime, my friends, cannot go through any form of international amnesty. There is nothing the opposition can do about that.
What Ocariz says here is that any political outcome needs to go through an internal chavismo resolution, if it has a chance to become a relatively peaceful national settlement. Because if the Cabello groups takes over the only possible outcome is violence. They are the ones to find a solution for the Cabello problem, even an amnesty of which te regime should assume full responsibility in case some judge later decides against.
To the mediators and the Vatican if the government does not fulfill its [last meeting] engagements, there will be no reunion on December 6.
Note the simplicity. The MUD is not standing up and leaving. It simply states that the regime made commitments that were to be fulfilled by December 6, commitments made of its own volition. There is no point in discussing further commitments, or evaluating those made before, if the regime does not do what it promised to do [release of more political prisoners, recognition of the National Assembly constitutional role at least for the objectives set then, such as the election of a new Electoral Board]. As soon as the regime does its self accorded part, the opposition will return to the discussion table.
In other words, still without addressing the regime by name, the opposition advises the mediators and the Vatican not to waste their time, the time of all of them, MUD included. The mediators either show that they have what it takes, or get out of town.
Gettysburg address this ain't, but in Venezuelan political lingo it is as close as it will ever get. I, for one, am impressed by this short note from Ocariz.
Al Vaticano, mediadores y pueblo de Venezuela. pic.twitter.com/tEqms2ZRxb— Carlos Ocariz (@CarlosOcariz) 30 de noviembre de 2016
Translation, step by step, with my comments.
To the Vatican, mediators and the people of Venezuela.
Note: it is not even directed to the regime. Only the parts that have a certain level of seriousness, or for whom a lot is at stake. As is implied in the rest of the message, the MUD at this point does not care anymore about what the regime has to say on those matters, it has become a waste of time to listen.
We ratify the coherence and dedication to the [good] fight considering the MUD communique
There is no need to read the detailed communique of the opposition umbrella group, MUD. This note is eloquent enough as you'll see. Ocariz states unambiguously that this is a fight, and henceforth the dialogue was an attempt at a truce. But the causes of the good fight are still present. He also implies that the ways of his own people, the Primero Justicia party, are their own but that they share the common core and goals with the other players of the MUD. In short, we are united no matter what people may have speculated. And our union is way stronger than what anyone may think, in particular the regime.
It is inhumane that the government, in front of the crisis it created and we all Venezuelan suffer [the consequences], does not fulfill its engagements. The Vatican and the mediators bear witness of our dedicated efforts.
The Vatican and the said mediators are pushed against the wall. Let's see if they dare to say that the opposition did not do its best, that it should do more. And were they to attempt to say such thing, a further crass moves to favor the regime blaming the opposition, they better be ready to show the evidence. That is: the credibility of the Vatican and the mediators is what is at stake now. The Vatican and its Pope, mind you!
Also it bears underlining that if the opposition accuses the regime of the crisis, what cannot be argued is that ALL Venezuelans are suffering its consequences. For this reason alone the regime should try harder than what it does. If it ever tried, for that matter.
The internal divisions between government groups blocks them from honoring their word, and Venezuelans cannot be subjected of the contradictions/vagaries within the government/regime [exact word to translate not available].
What we all knew, the problem is within chavismo. What the opposition points out is to the direct problem of chavismo, that one group, led by Diosdado Cabello, wants no negotiation, no compromise, whatsoever. There may or may not be more than two groups of power within chavismo, but the one that is blocking any solution, that is aggravating the crisis, is the group of Diosdado Cabello who knows that their final destiny is jail because of their involvement in drug trafficking. And that crime, my friends, cannot go through any form of international amnesty. There is nothing the opposition can do about that.
What Ocariz says here is that any political outcome needs to go through an internal chavismo resolution, if it has a chance to become a relatively peaceful national settlement. Because if the Cabello groups takes over the only possible outcome is violence. They are the ones to find a solution for the Cabello problem, even an amnesty of which te regime should assume full responsibility in case some judge later decides against.
To the mediators and the Vatican if the government does not fulfill its [last meeting] engagements, there will be no reunion on December 6.
Note the simplicity. The MUD is not standing up and leaving. It simply states that the regime made commitments that were to be fulfilled by December 6, commitments made of its own volition. There is no point in discussing further commitments, or evaluating those made before, if the regime does not do what it promised to do [release of more political prisoners, recognition of the National Assembly constitutional role at least for the objectives set then, such as the election of a new Electoral Board]. As soon as the regime does its self accorded part, the opposition will return to the discussion table.
In other words, still without addressing the regime by name, the opposition advises the mediators and the Vatican not to waste their time, the time of all of them, MUD included. The mediators either show that they have what it takes, or get out of town.
Gettysburg address this ain't, but in Venezuelan political lingo it is as close as it will ever get. I, for one, am impressed by this short note from Ocariz.
Wednesday, 30 November 2016
In two tweets, the collapse of Venezuelan economy
Two tweets, one from November 21 and one this morning this morning, November 30
(word play on Chavez promising that his revolution would last with him at the helm until the year 2012, his version of the thousand years Reich).
The Venezuelan currency on the black market lost 50% of its value in not even ten days. Note that in October it was hovering at 1100 and this afternoon it has already crossed the 4200 barrier. Thus we can say that the depreciation over a month is around 75%. I do not think that historically Venezuela's currency has experienced such a drop in such a short time.
Economist will have all sorts of fancy explanations to give you. The regime will speak of a terrorist attack on Venezuela by the imperialism, refusing to consider that the Fidel Castro, finally croaked, model is the guilty party. What I am going to tell you is what this means at ground zero, the one of yours truly.
It means that with the hyperinflation setting in with our two paycheck combined we may not be able to cover food and medical expenses of my SO, even with insurance.
It means that assuming that I can find and purchase raw material to keep producing it would be so expensive to produce that no one will be able to afford me (or no one else for that matter).
It means that considering that national food is insufficient we will not be able to purchase imported food.
It means that come February, when the full effect of this is felt, I may be out of a job, out of food, out of medicine for the SO. And it will not be a question of price and money in the bank. Simply, the shelves will be barren.
Why o why?
Well, it all started when the regime decided to pass a national budget without approbation by the National Assembly. As expected, once creditors were told that nothing outside of a National Assembly vote would be recognized as debt, then loans stopped. Oil prices did not go up. Plus other well known factors of a dysfunctional economy. Conclusion? Bankruptcy and a dollar that goes from 1000 to a USD to 4000 in about a month time.
It is just that simple folks, truly. An absolute lack of confidence in the regime.
The worst thing of all is that there is little that can be done at this point, the damage is too deep. A mere relaxation on price controls or currency exchange will not do. We are like in Eastern Europe circa Berlin Wall collapse. The regime tried for so long to avoid an economy bang that it created the conditions for a nuclear economic bang. Now we need to do, SIMULTANEOUSLY, removing currency control, removing price controls, negotiate with the IMF some sort of bridge loan to help the poorest people to eat.
And all of this is only possible with a change of government. It is not even a matter of sharing responsibilities with the opposition, it is too late for that (and I have my doubts about the opposition wanting to reach office now, but that is matter for a future post).
Hasta el 2021!— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) 21 de noviembre de 2016
Chávez lo había prometido!
Cumplió! #DolarToday2021 @DolarToday pic.twitter.com/Es06uFZRy3
(word play on Chavez promising that his revolution would last with him at the helm until the year 2012, his version of the thousand years Reich).
Thy end neareth! Hear thee trumpets blaringth! Apocalypse cometh to thy stomach! pic.twitter.com/ZzPPqqgIX2— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) 30 de noviembre de 2016
The Venezuelan currency on the black market lost 50% of its value in not even ten days. Note that in October it was hovering at 1100 and this afternoon it has already crossed the 4200 barrier. Thus we can say that the depreciation over a month is around 75%. I do not think that historically Venezuela's currency has experienced such a drop in such a short time.
Economist will have all sorts of fancy explanations to give you. The regime will speak of a terrorist attack on Venezuela by the imperialism, refusing to consider that the Fidel Castro, finally croaked, model is the guilty party. What I am going to tell you is what this means at ground zero, the one of yours truly.
It means that with the hyperinflation setting in with our two paycheck combined we may not be able to cover food and medical expenses of my SO, even with insurance.
It means that assuming that I can find and purchase raw material to keep producing it would be so expensive to produce that no one will be able to afford me (or no one else for that matter).
It means that considering that national food is insufficient we will not be able to purchase imported food.
It means that come February, when the full effect of this is felt, I may be out of a job, out of food, out of medicine for the SO. And it will not be a question of price and money in the bank. Simply, the shelves will be barren.
Why o why?
Well, it all started when the regime decided to pass a national budget without approbation by the National Assembly. As expected, once creditors were told that nothing outside of a National Assembly vote would be recognized as debt, then loans stopped. Oil prices did not go up. Plus other well known factors of a dysfunctional economy. Conclusion? Bankruptcy and a dollar that goes from 1000 to a USD to 4000 in about a month time.
It is just that simple folks, truly. An absolute lack of confidence in the regime.
The worst thing of all is that there is little that can be done at this point, the damage is too deep. A mere relaxation on price controls or currency exchange will not do. We are like in Eastern Europe circa Berlin Wall collapse. The regime tried for so long to avoid an economy bang that it created the conditions for a nuclear economic bang. Now we need to do, SIMULTANEOUSLY, removing currency control, removing price controls, negotiate with the IMF some sort of bridge loan to help the poorest people to eat.
And all of this is only possible with a change of government. It is not even a matter of sharing responsibilities with the opposition, it is too late for that (and I have my doubts about the opposition wanting to reach office now, but that is matter for a future post).
Sunday, 20 November 2016
Obama's debacle
I used to be upset when people in the US were surprised that I did not like spicy food. For them, we in Lat Am ate all Mexican spicy hot. Venezuela has actually a rather bland cooking, and hot is preferred by few for a few only.
I am reminded of that because as I am watching the Trump transition I am starting to get cold shivers. I am afraid that those Trump will put at National Security and State are going to see everything South of the Rio Grande as, well, the same thing. Just make a big wall and the US will be juuuust fine.
But this weekend I have been getting truly cold sweats as I am listening to Obama's farewell tour and his unseemly plaintive speeches as to the values of the West, as to wait and see on Trump even if Obama's eyes and tone say something else totally. Trying to pass the baton to Merkel was a sad moment. What we are witnessing is a man that realizes that not only his 8 years have been lost but his complacency may have greater consequences.
He has only himself to blame for that. I am not going to go into how he was slapped for the economy when he should have been thanked. Nor am I going to speak about his turning US foreign policy towards Asia so that in the end China may benefit more than the US. This one, after all, may have been unavoidable and the only thing any US president could do is to work out the time timetables and the distribution of bitter pills. But I am going to speak with property on the mess that Obama is leaving Venezuela in.
The grand scheme of Obama was the opening to Cuba that he would start and Hillary would complete. One of the condition for the success of that policy was for Venezuela not to blow up. One reason was that Venezuelan money was needed to pay for Cuba transition. Another one was to allow Santos in Colombia to do whatever wicked game he had in mind. Yet another one was that the US did not care much about a country that would so willingly inflict so much damage on itself (can't blame the US for that!).
Unfortunately for Obama the old guard reared its ugly head in Cuba and decided that as long as the Fidel colleagues were alive no change would come. Maybe when enough of them were dead or gaga then, and only then, the dictatorship could start to evolve. Sometime in the next decade. And then oil prices bottomed out for the long run and Venezuela went broke, dragging Cuba down but repression up.
Thus Obama decided to wait and see, to let Hillary get elected and let her finish his legacy. Now he is not only getting neither, but his delays are going to make everything worse for the whole subcontinent.
In Venezuela Obama's last act was to defuse a break down just before election day. When tensions were rising he dispatched Shannon to browbeat everyone in the opposition. As it has always been the case, whenever Shannon intervenes, the democratic opposition of Venezuela suffers a set back. This time was not going to be different. Within days Trump was elected president and instantly Obama lost any capacity of pressure against the Venezuelan regime. This one slowly but surely has started to rise again as the opposition concession of a truce at the bequest of Obama and the Pope has caused a rift inside. This rift threatens the dissolution of the front, with catastrophic consequences for the country.
In short, if Obama and the Pope wanted to avoid civil war in Venezuela they may have actually increased the chances of this happening. May? Actually I am almost certain. I am actually surprised at some of the bold recent moves that show that the regime is not even concerned by the OAS. Our fate is strictly with MERCOSUR and whatever the Pope may decide to wriggle through its mediation efforts (though for all appearances one even wonders about the Pope listening to the Venezuelan church). Peanuts, in the end.
In short for Venezuela there will be no recall election, there will be no liberalization of the electoral system, there may no be any type of election for at least a year, there will be more repression even though a handful of political prisoners have been released, etc. You see the picture. Only the deepening fo the economic crisis can force the regime to negotiate in fear of an outright hunger revolt of the chavista masses themselves. I am not saying that Obama could have solved any of that, but now I can say that he made it all worse. In the end, with Hillary out, what good did the Kelly-Maduro short meeting do a few weeks ago? Does it matter that Maduro's nephews are now in jail? They were dumb and got caught. Tough shit!
What is left to do? Well, for the good news. The odds that we will never see Shannon involved in Venezuela matters rise by the day. The bad news indicate that Trump will be no improvement. Of all the candidates for State, none so far seems to have any interest for LatAm that I know of. At least we shall be grateful is the new Secretary is not openly pro Russian.
Our best hope? Since Rubio and Ros-Lehtinen have been reelected let's hope that Trump will farm out to them the matters on Cuba and Venezuela. At least they can place the countries on the map and know that in Cuba they do not eat spicy hot. If the regime stays in office Marco an Ileana would make sure they they cannot step out of the country least they get caught by Interpol.
Or something.
I am reminded of that because as I am watching the Trump transition I am starting to get cold shivers. I am afraid that those Trump will put at National Security and State are going to see everything South of the Rio Grande as, well, the same thing. Just make a big wall and the US will be juuuust fine.
But this weekend I have been getting truly cold sweats as I am listening to Obama's farewell tour and his unseemly plaintive speeches as to the values of the West, as to wait and see on Trump even if Obama's eyes and tone say something else totally. Trying to pass the baton to Merkel was a sad moment. What we are witnessing is a man that realizes that not only his 8 years have been lost but his complacency may have greater consequences.
He has only himself to blame for that. I am not going to go into how he was slapped for the economy when he should have been thanked. Nor am I going to speak about his turning US foreign policy towards Asia so that in the end China may benefit more than the US. This one, after all, may have been unavoidable and the only thing any US president could do is to work out the time timetables and the distribution of bitter pills. But I am going to speak with property on the mess that Obama is leaving Venezuela in.
The grand scheme of Obama was the opening to Cuba that he would start and Hillary would complete. One of the condition for the success of that policy was for Venezuela not to blow up. One reason was that Venezuelan money was needed to pay for Cuba transition. Another one was to allow Santos in Colombia to do whatever wicked game he had in mind. Yet another one was that the US did not care much about a country that would so willingly inflict so much damage on itself (can't blame the US for that!).
Unfortunately for Obama the old guard reared its ugly head in Cuba and decided that as long as the Fidel colleagues were alive no change would come. Maybe when enough of them were dead or gaga then, and only then, the dictatorship could start to evolve. Sometime in the next decade. And then oil prices bottomed out for the long run and Venezuela went broke, dragging Cuba down but repression up.
Thus Obama decided to wait and see, to let Hillary get elected and let her finish his legacy. Now he is not only getting neither, but his delays are going to make everything worse for the whole subcontinent.
In Venezuela Obama's last act was to defuse a break down just before election day. When tensions were rising he dispatched Shannon to browbeat everyone in the opposition. As it has always been the case, whenever Shannon intervenes, the democratic opposition of Venezuela suffers a set back. This time was not going to be different. Within days Trump was elected president and instantly Obama lost any capacity of pressure against the Venezuelan regime. This one slowly but surely has started to rise again as the opposition concession of a truce at the bequest of Obama and the Pope has caused a rift inside. This rift threatens the dissolution of the front, with catastrophic consequences for the country.
In short, if Obama and the Pope wanted to avoid civil war in Venezuela they may have actually increased the chances of this happening. May? Actually I am almost certain. I am actually surprised at some of the bold recent moves that show that the regime is not even concerned by the OAS. Our fate is strictly with MERCOSUR and whatever the Pope may decide to wriggle through its mediation efforts (though for all appearances one even wonders about the Pope listening to the Venezuelan church). Peanuts, in the end.
In short for Venezuela there will be no recall election, there will be no liberalization of the electoral system, there may no be any type of election for at least a year, there will be more repression even though a handful of political prisoners have been released, etc. You see the picture. Only the deepening fo the economic crisis can force the regime to negotiate in fear of an outright hunger revolt of the chavista masses themselves. I am not saying that Obama could have solved any of that, but now I can say that he made it all worse. In the end, with Hillary out, what good did the Kelly-Maduro short meeting do a few weeks ago? Does it matter that Maduro's nephews are now in jail? They were dumb and got caught. Tough shit!
What is left to do? Well, for the good news. The odds that we will never see Shannon involved in Venezuela matters rise by the day. The bad news indicate that Trump will be no improvement. Of all the candidates for State, none so far seems to have any interest for LatAm that I know of. At least we shall be grateful is the new Secretary is not openly pro Russian.
Our best hope? Since Rubio and Ros-Lehtinen have been reelected let's hope that Trump will farm out to them the matters on Cuba and Venezuela. At least they can place the countries on the map and know that in Cuba they do not eat spicy hot. If the regime stays in office Marco an Ileana would make sure they they cannot step out of the country least they get caught by Interpol.
Or something.
Sunday, 13 November 2016
Divisional Perplexity in Caracas
Confused about the rather dismal "dialogue" results, and further confused by the strange reactions to these results (besides the previsible ones in Twitter from Miami demanding that we go without fault tomorrow to burn down Miraflores Palace) I have been trying to understand what the heck is going on.
In a word: divisions.
The dialogue cannot advance any faster for many reasons. First it is not a dialogue, it is a discussion about a ransom note that kidnappers have no intention to honor anyway. They want to cash the rescue and kill you at the end in case you go to the police to report the crime. That is the level of dysfunctional psychosis reached by the regime, they still think they can have an honorable career.
The second reason remains an old one. Too many inside the regime know what their fate would be if an agreement were to be signed. These people cannot be rescued under any term and thus they will do the utmost to sabotage, deny, torpedo any discussion. The most glaring case being Diosdado Cabello who keeps touring the country saying that the dialogue is going nowhere. People like him know that if an agreement is signed they can start measuring their jail cell for drapes.
A third but lesser reason is that some inside of the opposition are willing to settle more than others. But even there the regime seems unwilling to accommodate as these people will not settle for mere cash as it used to be the case in past defections from the opposition.
That is why we did not see more self congratulation from the regime than what one would have expected but also less outrage from the opposition than one would have been expecting. After all, the regime knows it has got to negotiate something, anything, and the opposition knows it has no weapons to take Maduro out so its options are limited. It remains for us now to resume briefly the divisions in each camp.
Inside the regime right now, as it changes fast, we have the negationists, those that refuse to sit at the table. Diosdado is the leader. Then we have the negationist light who sit there because at least they know what the other guys are talking about. We can include foremost here the governor of Aragua, Tareck El Aissami, equally under investigation by the DEA. Let's note that these people will take everyone down with them, chavista or not.
We move on to the radical-psychos, those who have lost their mind long ago but feel obscurely somewhere that the gig is up and only by gaining time they may find a way out. I have named of course the Rodriguez duo who want to shoot you whenever they will be able to get away with it but meanwhile they consent just to insult you across a table.
Finally we have the razzmatazz of chavismo that goes from military that do not want to end up at The Hague to those still with a marble or two in their heads and think that maybe some negotiation may allow them to retire somewhere. At the table we have the infamous Chaderton, the best they can offer. Ain't it something?
The opposition is certainly more palatable, at least they speak in complete sentences with correct punctuation, even if it is to admit defeat. Fortunately for them the radicals are not sitting. Maria Corina has not been invited and the arguably more organized opposition party of Venezuela, Voluntad Popular, has refused to sit down as long as Leopoldo is in jail. We do not know for sure at this point whether this is a plus for the opposition. Indeed, Voluntad Popular can offer the excuse to stand up and leave, or be the carrot to bring the regime to a real measurable concession so as to bring VP to the table. We shall see.
There are two sets from the opposition at the table. One is old party AD of Ramos Allup, who already conceded that the Recall Election is dead, together with up comer PJ with Capriles and divisions of its own apparently. They represent the hard negotiation, with hues. The other side are the wishy-washy like governor Falcon or UNT from Zulia state. These are willing to negotiate something rather favorable for the regime, but they are not willing to go beyond a long transition. That is, the regime will have to leave power by January 2019 at the latest. They are not doing that out of their good heart: they know very well that once VP, PJ and AD are in jail their turn will come no matter what. As such they want guarantees, in addition of help to avoid being rolled over by the other opposition parties.
So there you have. How can negotiations, already complex, advance fast when there is already such problems for each side to get their act together? The real problem seems not to be that negotiations are slow but that the opposition negotiators give the impression that the regime is winning hands down...........
Surely something can be done as to how the message is broadcast?
In a word: divisions.
The dialogue cannot advance any faster for many reasons. First it is not a dialogue, it is a discussion about a ransom note that kidnappers have no intention to honor anyway. They want to cash the rescue and kill you at the end in case you go to the police to report the crime. That is the level of dysfunctional psychosis reached by the regime, they still think they can have an honorable career.
The second reason remains an old one. Too many inside the regime know what their fate would be if an agreement were to be signed. These people cannot be rescued under any term and thus they will do the utmost to sabotage, deny, torpedo any discussion. The most glaring case being Diosdado Cabello who keeps touring the country saying that the dialogue is going nowhere. People like him know that if an agreement is signed they can start measuring their jail cell for drapes.
A third but lesser reason is that some inside of the opposition are willing to settle more than others. But even there the regime seems unwilling to accommodate as these people will not settle for mere cash as it used to be the case in past defections from the opposition.
That is why we did not see more self congratulation from the regime than what one would have expected but also less outrage from the opposition than one would have been expecting. After all, the regime knows it has got to negotiate something, anything, and the opposition knows it has no weapons to take Maduro out so its options are limited. It remains for us now to resume briefly the divisions in each camp.
Inside the regime right now, as it changes fast, we have the negationists, those that refuse to sit at the table. Diosdado is the leader. Then we have the negationist light who sit there because at least they know what the other guys are talking about. We can include foremost here the governor of Aragua, Tareck El Aissami, equally under investigation by the DEA. Let's note that these people will take everyone down with them, chavista or not.
We move on to the radical-psychos, those who have lost their mind long ago but feel obscurely somewhere that the gig is up and only by gaining time they may find a way out. I have named of course the Rodriguez duo who want to shoot you whenever they will be able to get away with it but meanwhile they consent just to insult you across a table.
Finally we have the razzmatazz of chavismo that goes from military that do not want to end up at The Hague to those still with a marble or two in their heads and think that maybe some negotiation may allow them to retire somewhere. At the table we have the infamous Chaderton, the best they can offer. Ain't it something?
The opposition is certainly more palatable, at least they speak in complete sentences with correct punctuation, even if it is to admit defeat. Fortunately for them the radicals are not sitting. Maria Corina has not been invited and the arguably more organized opposition party of Venezuela, Voluntad Popular, has refused to sit down as long as Leopoldo is in jail. We do not know for sure at this point whether this is a plus for the opposition. Indeed, Voluntad Popular can offer the excuse to stand up and leave, or be the carrot to bring the regime to a real measurable concession so as to bring VP to the table. We shall see.
There are two sets from the opposition at the table. One is old party AD of Ramos Allup, who already conceded that the Recall Election is dead, together with up comer PJ with Capriles and divisions of its own apparently. They represent the hard negotiation, with hues. The other side are the wishy-washy like governor Falcon or UNT from Zulia state. These are willing to negotiate something rather favorable for the regime, but they are not willing to go beyond a long transition. That is, the regime will have to leave power by January 2019 at the latest. They are not doing that out of their good heart: they know very well that once VP, PJ and AD are in jail their turn will come no matter what. As such they want guarantees, in addition of help to avoid being rolled over by the other opposition parties.
So there you have. How can negotiations, already complex, advance fast when there is already such problems for each side to get their act together? The real problem seems not to be that negotiations are slow but that the opposition negotiators give the impression that the regime is winning hands down...........
Surely something can be done as to how the message is broadcast?
Saturday, 12 November 2016
The triumphant failure of the dialogue in Venezuela
I suppose that there must be somewhere a grand design to all of this. That we are asked to swallow hard because it is all for the best. That we should trust the Vatican envoy when he is in ecstasy about the progress made. Or is it that he is claiming victory as he is on his way to the airport to leave once and for all?
So let's look at what I think is a dismal result for two weeks of expectations. I never hoped for much but this is, well, words fail me. Let's see if I can try to explain it by doing a positive and negative spin to the 5 "points of agreement" reached today.
1- ---acordaron trabajar de manera conjunta para combatir toda forma de sabotaje, boicot o agresión---Agreement to work together against all forms of {economical} sabotage, boycott or agression---
Positive spin: the regime will accept to take measures to change the economic system so that production will improve and we will have less scarcity.
Negative spin: unfuckingbelievable!!!! The opposition buys the regime's theses that the economic crisis is not its fault but that of external factors sabitaging. In short the opposition accepts to share the blame of a crisis that is entirely of the regime's making. And I cannot even charitably conceded that it is in the aim to silence the propaganda of the regime: just you wait!
2- ...superación de la situación de desacato de la Asamblea Nacional... overcoming the situation of disobedience of the National Assembly...
Positive spin: the regime acknowledges that there is an impasse and that something must be done. For this it will allow a repeat election of Amazonas representatives and name the 2 electoral board members whose term expires in a few days (2 out of 5 in the CNE)
Negative spin: first the language puts the blame on the National Assembly for refusing to follow the clearly unconstitutional dictates of the high court TSJ. That it was about the Amazonas representatives is not an excuse: it is inadmissible that they have been suspended 11 months ago by the TSJ and that this one has not declared whether these elections were valid or needed to be repeated. Nowhere in the world such a delay would be acceptable.
Equally detestable, the opposition accepts that the regime will get one of the two new CNE members to be named when according to the National Assembly composition it should get none. The CNE should now be 2 to 3 in favor of the opposition and the regime will now retain a 3 to 2, and thus control of the electoral machinery with all the advantages that this implies including the electoral abuses that have been amply described.
3- Everybody agrees on defending Venezuela's right on a chunk of Guyana called Essequibo.
Positive spin: WTF?
Negative spin: WTF!
4- A "live together in peace agreement" has been approved.
Positive spin: Let's all sing kumbaya
Negative spin: wasn't there a constitution and rule of law to take care of that? OR is it now that we will live in peace because the regime decides it so? Where is the evidence of that intention?
5- Mumble jumble about organization of future conversations
Positive spin: we are still talking, nobody slammed the door.
Negative spin, the regime gains a few more precious weeks
I mean, this is bad.
In addition we learn that the next general sit down is December 6 which is an insult to the opposition as it is the one year anniversary of its landslide 2/3 majority which has been reduced to paltry negotiations so it can still breathe some. To add insult to injury the psychopath of Jorge Rodriguez is acting like the big bad Woolf enticing those in the opposition to see the positive results and thus to depose arms and join the dialogue.
What conclusions can we take, minimally?
First, the recall election is now dead. Even if December 6 were to produce the miracle of such an election there is no time to collet signatures and run it by January 10. RIP opposition main claim.
Second, the MUD is playing into the hands of the regime to accelerate its division. How can anyone think that Voluntad Popular will sit down with such paltry results? VP could possibly be talked into postponing Leopoldo Lopez release but in exchange for something big, at least a Recall Election BEFORE January 10. Amen of other players like Maria Corina Machado.
Third, unless the MUD come up with something convincing like, now, we can only conclude it has started to cave in the regime and offer it a transition to its own measure. Why? Who? The army? The Vatican? Obama? Generic Fear?
One thing is certain, any good will at the OAS or Mercosur is likely to fade fast, if you ask me. By the time the opposition decides to hit the streets again all will have forgotten and all the work will need to be done again.
Only the regime is gaining so far. Prove me wrong.
So let's look at what I think is a dismal result for two weeks of expectations. I never hoped for much but this is, well, words fail me. Let's see if I can try to explain it by doing a positive and negative spin to the 5 "points of agreement" reached today.
1- ---acordaron trabajar de manera conjunta para combatir toda forma de sabotaje, boicot o agresión---Agreement to work together against all forms of {economical} sabotage, boycott or agression---
Positive spin: the regime will accept to take measures to change the economic system so that production will improve and we will have less scarcity.
Negative spin: unfuckingbelievable!!!! The opposition buys the regime's theses that the economic crisis is not its fault but that of external factors sabitaging. In short the opposition accepts to share the blame of a crisis that is entirely of the regime's making. And I cannot even charitably conceded that it is in the aim to silence the propaganda of the regime: just you wait!
2- ...superación de la situación de desacato de la Asamblea Nacional... overcoming the situation of disobedience of the National Assembly...
Positive spin: the regime acknowledges that there is an impasse and that something must be done. For this it will allow a repeat election of Amazonas representatives and name the 2 electoral board members whose term expires in a few days (2 out of 5 in the CNE)
Negative spin: first the language puts the blame on the National Assembly for refusing to follow the clearly unconstitutional dictates of the high court TSJ. That it was about the Amazonas representatives is not an excuse: it is inadmissible that they have been suspended 11 months ago by the TSJ and that this one has not declared whether these elections were valid or needed to be repeated. Nowhere in the world such a delay would be acceptable.
Equally detestable, the opposition accepts that the regime will get one of the two new CNE members to be named when according to the National Assembly composition it should get none. The CNE should now be 2 to 3 in favor of the opposition and the regime will now retain a 3 to 2, and thus control of the electoral machinery with all the advantages that this implies including the electoral abuses that have been amply described.
3- Everybody agrees on defending Venezuela's right on a chunk of Guyana called Essequibo.
Positive spin: WTF?
Negative spin: WTF!
4- A "live together in peace agreement" has been approved.
Positive spin: Let's all sing kumbaya
Negative spin: wasn't there a constitution and rule of law to take care of that? OR is it now that we will live in peace because the regime decides it so? Where is the evidence of that intention?
5- Mumble jumble about organization of future conversations
Positive spin: we are still talking, nobody slammed the door.
Negative spin, the regime gains a few more precious weeks
I mean, this is bad.
In addition we learn that the next general sit down is December 6 which is an insult to the opposition as it is the one year anniversary of its landslide 2/3 majority which has been reduced to paltry negotiations so it can still breathe some. To add insult to injury the psychopath of Jorge Rodriguez is acting like the big bad Woolf enticing those in the opposition to see the positive results and thus to depose arms and join the dialogue.
What conclusions can we take, minimally?
First, the recall election is now dead. Even if December 6 were to produce the miracle of such an election there is no time to collet signatures and run it by January 10. RIP opposition main claim.
Second, the MUD is playing into the hands of the regime to accelerate its division. How can anyone think that Voluntad Popular will sit down with such paltry results? VP could possibly be talked into postponing Leopoldo Lopez release but in exchange for something big, at least a Recall Election BEFORE January 10. Amen of other players like Maria Corina Machado.
Third, unless the MUD come up with something convincing like, now, we can only conclude it has started to cave in the regime and offer it a transition to its own measure. Why? Who? The army? The Vatican? Obama? Generic Fear?
One thing is certain, any good will at the OAS or Mercosur is likely to fade fast, if you ask me. By the time the opposition decides to hit the streets again all will have forgotten and all the work will need to be done again.
Only the regime is gaining so far. Prove me wrong.
Friday, 11 November 2016
Obama wrecks Venezuelan dialogue, Trump will not revive it
{UPDATED}
So here we are, at the famous November 11 deadline where supposedly we should evaluate the advances made by the "dialogue" started on October 30th. Listen carefully for the results, you may hear the crickets.
As a matter of fact, the half a dozen released political prisoners concession from the regime have been amply compensated through new arrests and further limitations to the National Assembly role. And as I said, the mere acceptance of a two weeks "truce" was enough to kill any hope for a recall election before January 10 and the High Court TSJ made sure of that today.
In short, the initial results of the truce seem to indicate that a disappointed opposition following is becoming indifferent as their need to deal with Christmas scarcities start to become more crucial, exactly what the regime wanted. Never mind that the appearance of some obvious divisions have not helped.
This is not to say that the regime benefited greatly. Its own internal divisions have also become more apparent, and the relentless crisis awaits for a mere incident to revive massive protests. Let's just say that the regime got some time for some propaganda that allowed a provisional stop to its own follower hemorrhage, multiplied by a minimum wage inducing inflation and the promise of some cheap toys in a CLAP food distribution subsidized bag.
The regime did get a hand from the US by the way- As soon as the dialogue was open Thomas Shannon from state flew in to Caracas. He met quickly with Maduro and then with the opposition, and left fast. For the life of me I cannot recall an involvement of Shannon with Venezuela that benefited the Venezuelan opposition, or at the very least that benefited it more, slightly more than the regime. Please, correct me if I am wrong. Whatever his reasons to come were, he got at least one thing, no Venezuela blow up until election day. Not that it helped much Hillary but that is another story. At least this Liberal can take small comfort in the loss of Hillary that Shannon will be out of office soon.
The fact of the matter is that this latest Shannon outing is in perfect following of 8 years of Obama basic do nothing on Venezuela, in the grand tradition of George Bush, already hinted at by Bill Clinton. And, I am willing to bet on it, a proud tradition that will be followed by Trump. As soon as he is sworn in he will realize that the US has more serious problems to deal with than the consequences of an idiotic electorate that voted back their country into Banana Republicorama. In addition, Trump enterprises will quickly look at possible hotel development in Venezuela and will realize that the beaches are contaminated, are not private enough, that there is no water nor food nor electricity, and that the personnel has been hopelessly damaged by 17 years of chavismo beggarization. Not even sending now available sheriff Arpaio to solve insecurity could motivate the Trump organization.
George Bush did not touch Chavez because he needed Venezuela oil for his Iraq adventure. That was that- Condi could be deeply insulted by Chavez and barely an eye would bat. Obama did not need oil that much anymore and, well, his interests were in Asia more than anywhere else. Venezuela only came into play when he got into the hubris that he would solve the transition away from the Castro and that he needed Venezuela to pay for it. What he thought to be his crowning legacy not only did not help him to have Hillary elected but will probably come back to haunt him in the ridicule field of fortune. The more so if Venezuela ends in a tragedy.
As for Trump, he did the true and tested Republican Cuban move in Florida. Late in the campaign he went to promise a stern hand against the Castro/Maduro regimes and voila, he got Florida. Probably this time around there were enough Venezuelans that could vote and did it so for him, falling for the GOP cause like Cubans have basically done since the 60ies, for nothing. What does Trump know about Venezuela besides it being a source for competitive ass when he was involved in beauty pageants? Still, it would not be hard for him to do better than Bush or Obama. Hillary on the other hand would have done better because she knew more about Venezuela. She tried to bring Obama around in his first term. And she expressed her opinion during the primaries using against the Bern his inability to condemn authoritarian leftist regimes. Am I the only one to remember that she gave an interview to Globovision when this one was under fire? Siiiiggghhhhh.......
So there we go, the dialogue as expected will fail because you cannot dialogue with the people that hold you in jail, the more so if they are themselves the felons. And nobody around cares much. From the Vatican to Argentina, they are kind of OK if you beat your wife as long as you do not make much noise.
-------------------
Update: as if this were to restore confidence. UNASUR head, totally discredited, untrustworthy, regime supporter Ernesto Samper was the one in charge to announce that they are all fine and dandy but that the results will be announced tomorrow morning. What is wrong with that?
First, new people joined in tonight. Tonight?
Second, the delays can only mean that they are not in agreement AND that each side itself is not in agreement. Consultations need to be held. We all know that these consultations mean that acceptance is far from certain.
Third, Samper was the spokes person? Nobody else could risk his good/bad name in front of a mic?
Forgive me if I go to bed without holding my breath. But then again, I could be proven wrong. Hopefully dead wrong.
So here we are, at the famous November 11 deadline where supposedly we should evaluate the advances made by the "dialogue" started on October 30th. Listen carefully for the results, you may hear the crickets.
As a matter of fact, the half a dozen released political prisoners concession from the regime have been amply compensated through new arrests and further limitations to the National Assembly role. And as I said, the mere acceptance of a two weeks "truce" was enough to kill any hope for a recall election before January 10 and the High Court TSJ made sure of that today.
In short, the initial results of the truce seem to indicate that a disappointed opposition following is becoming indifferent as their need to deal with Christmas scarcities start to become more crucial, exactly what the regime wanted. Never mind that the appearance of some obvious divisions have not helped.
This is not to say that the regime benefited greatly. Its own internal divisions have also become more apparent, and the relentless crisis awaits for a mere incident to revive massive protests. Let's just say that the regime got some time for some propaganda that allowed a provisional stop to its own follower hemorrhage, multiplied by a minimum wage inducing inflation and the promise of some cheap toys in a CLAP food distribution subsidized bag.
The regime did get a hand from the US by the way- As soon as the dialogue was open Thomas Shannon from state flew in to Caracas. He met quickly with Maduro and then with the opposition, and left fast. For the life of me I cannot recall an involvement of Shannon with Venezuela that benefited the Venezuelan opposition, or at the very least that benefited it more, slightly more than the regime. Please, correct me if I am wrong. Whatever his reasons to come were, he got at least one thing, no Venezuela blow up until election day. Not that it helped much Hillary but that is another story. At least this Liberal can take small comfort in the loss of Hillary that Shannon will be out of office soon.
The fact of the matter is that this latest Shannon outing is in perfect following of 8 years of Obama basic do nothing on Venezuela, in the grand tradition of George Bush, already hinted at by Bill Clinton. And, I am willing to bet on it, a proud tradition that will be followed by Trump. As soon as he is sworn in he will realize that the US has more serious problems to deal with than the consequences of an idiotic electorate that voted back their country into Banana Republicorama. In addition, Trump enterprises will quickly look at possible hotel development in Venezuela and will realize that the beaches are contaminated, are not private enough, that there is no water nor food nor electricity, and that the personnel has been hopelessly damaged by 17 years of chavismo beggarization. Not even sending now available sheriff Arpaio to solve insecurity could motivate the Trump organization.
George Bush did not touch Chavez because he needed Venezuela oil for his Iraq adventure. That was that- Condi could be deeply insulted by Chavez and barely an eye would bat. Obama did not need oil that much anymore and, well, his interests were in Asia more than anywhere else. Venezuela only came into play when he got into the hubris that he would solve the transition away from the Castro and that he needed Venezuela to pay for it. What he thought to be his crowning legacy not only did not help him to have Hillary elected but will probably come back to haunt him in the ridicule field of fortune. The more so if Venezuela ends in a tragedy.
As for Trump, he did the true and tested Republican Cuban move in Florida. Late in the campaign he went to promise a stern hand against the Castro/Maduro regimes and voila, he got Florida. Probably this time around there were enough Venezuelans that could vote and did it so for him, falling for the GOP cause like Cubans have basically done since the 60ies, for nothing. What does Trump know about Venezuela besides it being a source for competitive ass when he was involved in beauty pageants? Still, it would not be hard for him to do better than Bush or Obama. Hillary on the other hand would have done better because she knew more about Venezuela. She tried to bring Obama around in his first term. And she expressed her opinion during the primaries using against the Bern his inability to condemn authoritarian leftist regimes. Am I the only one to remember that she gave an interview to Globovision when this one was under fire? Siiiiggghhhhh.......
So there we go, the dialogue as expected will fail because you cannot dialogue with the people that hold you in jail, the more so if they are themselves the felons. And nobody around cares much. From the Vatican to Argentina, they are kind of OK if you beat your wife as long as you do not make much noise.
-------------------
Update: as if this were to restore confidence. UNASUR head, totally discredited, untrustworthy, regime supporter Ernesto Samper was the one in charge to announce that they are all fine and dandy but that the results will be announced tomorrow morning. What is wrong with that?
First, new people joined in tonight. Tonight?
Second, the delays can only mean that they are not in agreement AND that each side itself is not in agreement. Consultations need to be held. We all know that these consultations mean that acceptance is far from certain.
Third, Samper was the spokes person? Nobody else could risk his good/bad name in front of a mic?
Forgive me if I go to bed without holding my breath. But then again, I could be proven wrong. Hopefully dead wrong.
A letter to disapointed Clinton supporters aimlessly loitering
You are idiots. There was an election, you lost. That Hillary got more popular vote is irrelevant: it is a federal country, a union of 50 countries and thus the will of a majority of former independent countries is a must, like it or not. This is the reason of the electoral college and trust me, in a presidential system like the US you need all what you can to make it harder the election of a president and control him/her. Instead of rioting in the streets think about what else could you have done to get more votes for Hillary. Did you canvass enough? Did you offer to carry people to voting stations? Did you attend fervently Hillary meetings, or those from her surrogates? Did you at least make sure to let your family and acquaintances know that because you were gay/black/latino/etc. their vote for Trump would affect you directly? How long did it take you to shift from Bernie to Hillary?
Listen guys, I went through that. In fact I have been going on through 17 years of unfairly losing elections and being manipulated by people who are intellectually less advanced than me. Yes, I an owning what I just said. My current president is a true asshole. Compared to Maduro Trump is a hardworking towering genius. Even the dumb rednecks that voted for him are better than the equivalent that vote for Maduro: rednecks do work and pay taxes, last time I checked anyway. Here not only they do not pay taxes but as long as they receive a free bag of something, even if it becomes a rarer occurrence, they keep supporting Maduro.
You do not like Trump ideas? That makes two of us. Protesting Trump electoral victory only helps him. Time will come to protest him, right now it is not only a disservice to your cause but it is a disservice to democracy. Or is it that things like Black Lives Matter who came to Venezuela to support Maduro are affecting the belief in democracy and making too many black people stay home and allow for Trump to carry, say, Michigan?
Now it is not the time to riot, it is the time for introspection. Since you feel so superior to the Trump voter (or the chavista voter as the case may be) do as Paul Krugman did or I did in 2006, write about it, think about it, understand why your side lost, allow yourself to be bitter, to think the worst of the other side, to grieve, but remain constructive. Then you will be able to do something about it. Do not be a spoiled brat. Trust me, Hillary is not going to join you in the streets. Nor is Bernie for that matter. Nor should they.
If you are still not convinced by my words, then be my guest, visit Venezuela and stay a while where you will be beaten by your government for protesting even though your elections were totally rigged, and with the public knowledge of that. Please, do not pass for victims. You had 8 years of Obama. If you did not do anything out of it, it is your fault, not Trump's. Or Hillary, or mine for that matter.
There goes to tell you that a Liberal can be as unpolitically correct as any.
Listen guys, I went through that. In fact I have been going on through 17 years of unfairly losing elections and being manipulated by people who are intellectually less advanced than me. Yes, I an owning what I just said. My current president is a true asshole. Compared to Maduro Trump is a hardworking towering genius. Even the dumb rednecks that voted for him are better than the equivalent that vote for Maduro: rednecks do work and pay taxes, last time I checked anyway. Here not only they do not pay taxes but as long as they receive a free bag of something, even if it becomes a rarer occurrence, they keep supporting Maduro.
You do not like Trump ideas? That makes two of us. Protesting Trump electoral victory only helps him. Time will come to protest him, right now it is not only a disservice to your cause but it is a disservice to democracy. Or is it that things like Black Lives Matter who came to Venezuela to support Maduro are affecting the belief in democracy and making too many black people stay home and allow for Trump to carry, say, Michigan?
Now it is not the time to riot, it is the time for introspection. Since you feel so superior to the Trump voter (or the chavista voter as the case may be) do as Paul Krugman did or I did in 2006, write about it, think about it, understand why your side lost, allow yourself to be bitter, to think the worst of the other side, to grieve, but remain constructive. Then you will be able to do something about it. Do not be a spoiled brat. Trust me, Hillary is not going to join you in the streets. Nor is Bernie for that matter. Nor should they.
If you are still not convinced by my words, then be my guest, visit Venezuela and stay a while where you will be beaten by your government for protesting even though your elections were totally rigged, and with the public knowledge of that. Please, do not pass for victims. You had 8 years of Obama. If you did not do anything out of it, it is your fault, not Trump's. Or Hillary, or mine for that matter.
There goes to tell you that a Liberal can be as unpolitically correct as any.
Tuesday, 1 November 2016
48 hours of dialogue and it ain´t looking good. Unless...
I am not opposed to political dialogue. It has proven its worth through history. It could, on paper, be a good thing for Venezuela. I do not think it is because in historical dialogues either side had something to lose and did not want to lose it all. Here chavismo is of the scorched earth orthodoxy and they prefer to bring everything down before surrendering any piece of power. Reasons are multiple, from the knowledge of many of them ending up in jail were the regime to collapse to simply the castroite brain washing of a particularly virulent totalitarian nature, of tyrants long used to living out of thin air in a island cum concentration camp system.
In short, I believe in dialogue when there is the knowledge that both sides have something to lose or win, and when there is a dutiful respect on the symbols attached to such difficult endeavor. Visibly the first criteria is not met here, and the second criteria, on symbolism, was f....d up from the start as I reported Sunday night. Thus let's see what the first 48 hours have brought.
First, the division of the opposition that existed all along became quite obvious. Clearly the fear of the regime was a thin glue that is meting fast as the regime pretends to dole out some goodies to those behaving nice (I am looking at you, UNT, who had the chutzpah to send totally discredited Timoteo Zambrano to the dialogue table!). Certainly Maduro wasted no time in exploiting the opening and tonight went on attacking and demanding jail against the remaining leadership of Voluntad Polar. For good measure he also called Capriles a drug addict. I suppose it takes one to know one, but I digress. I have put the infamous video of Maduro tonight at the end of this entry if someone has the stomach for it. We must note that Chuo Torrealba came strongly to defend the opposition union and Voluntad Popular, but I am waiting for UNT to do the same.
More worrisome is the reaction of the opposition followers where we find a HUUGGEE chunk so outraged by sitting down for a dialogue, any dialogue that it has sent into frenzy the keyboard warriors insulting Capriles, Torrealba et all in ways that remind me of chavista bots. But again I digress. The point is that the clumsy management of the dialogue, to qualify it generously as clumsy, is exacting quite a toll inside the opposition ranks. Note: a lot of those twitter/key board warriors are not going to lead open shirted, chest upfront, the march on Miraflores. But again, I digress, apologies.
Even though that negative mood was detectable already Monday the opposition today in the National Assembly called away two of its top anti regime agenda points: the trial against Maduro and the said march on Miraflores. There are merits for that: after all why would you march to overthrow a regime if you are sitting down talking to them? But maybe you could have prepared public opinion as early as yesterday. No?
So the regime can score so far the following: no recall election this year; the apparent blow out of the opposition; no trial for Maduro; no march on Miraflores; great photo ops for Maduro; a hapless if not outwardly complicit Vatican, US et al. Note that Thomas Shannon from State made a surprise visit today, as usual with no comments, and probably as usual with a bad outcome in the following days. When Shannon deals with Venezuela I start shivering in fear even if it is not Halloween. True, technically all the opposition initiatives are on the freeze until November 12 when it could all start again. But does anyone think that the unity of purpose will be recovered by then? Not me.
Since this is a dialogue surely the regime made a concession somewhere. A few political prisoners were released. 5 I think, it is not clear. And not the most notorious ones, And a few dozens were incarcerated in the preceding days anyway. So, Castro style, any release is always compensated for a new jailing, a constant prison population being a healthy tool to impress the populace. Note two interesting details: no Voluntad Popular prisoner released, while all the releases were done without judicial action proving that those unfortunate souls were mere hostages to the regime, jailed because I said so, released because I got bored with them (and quite frankly in the XXI century I cannot get away as easily with murder as any dictator could in the past century).
So far so bad. Unless, my wild hope, it is all because the opposition inner sanctum knows something we do not know, something that it cannot say. Maybe Maduro is about to resign? Maybe his military are going to depose him? Maybe the inner sanctum was told to wait a couple of weeks more and all would be fine and dandy? Maybe they were told that as soon as the US election is settled Obama will send a gazillion marines, the exact number depending on the number of votes Hillary gets?
This late in the game outside UNT I do not think that any opposition leader could have been bought. There are in for the fight even though differences exist. So clearly there must be a reason, a positive reason why reasonable folks like Ramos Allup, Borges, Torrealba have swallowed hard in the past two days to sit down and call a two weeks truce. Heck, one can even hope that the "division" with Voluntad is a show to distract chavismo.
But I doubt it. I hope to be proven wrong. Give me some sign MUD!
---------------------------
In short, I believe in dialogue when there is the knowledge that both sides have something to lose or win, and when there is a dutiful respect on the symbols attached to such difficult endeavor. Visibly the first criteria is not met here, and the second criteria, on symbolism, was f....d up from the start as I reported Sunday night. Thus let's see what the first 48 hours have brought.
First, the division of the opposition that existed all along became quite obvious. Clearly the fear of the regime was a thin glue that is meting fast as the regime pretends to dole out some goodies to those behaving nice (I am looking at you, UNT, who had the chutzpah to send totally discredited Timoteo Zambrano to the dialogue table!). Certainly Maduro wasted no time in exploiting the opening and tonight went on attacking and demanding jail against the remaining leadership of Voluntad Polar. For good measure he also called Capriles a drug addict. I suppose it takes one to know one, but I digress. I have put the infamous video of Maduro tonight at the end of this entry if someone has the stomach for it. We must note that Chuo Torrealba came strongly to defend the opposition union and Voluntad Popular, but I am waiting for UNT to do the same.
More worrisome is the reaction of the opposition followers where we find a HUUGGEE chunk so outraged by sitting down for a dialogue, any dialogue that it has sent into frenzy the keyboard warriors insulting Capriles, Torrealba et all in ways that remind me of chavista bots. But again I digress. The point is that the clumsy management of the dialogue, to qualify it generously as clumsy, is exacting quite a toll inside the opposition ranks. Note: a lot of those twitter/key board warriors are not going to lead open shirted, chest upfront, the march on Miraflores. But again, I digress, apologies.
Even though that negative mood was detectable already Monday the opposition today in the National Assembly called away two of its top anti regime agenda points: the trial against Maduro and the said march on Miraflores. There are merits for that: after all why would you march to overthrow a regime if you are sitting down talking to them? But maybe you could have prepared public opinion as early as yesterday. No?
So the regime can score so far the following: no recall election this year; the apparent blow out of the opposition; no trial for Maduro; no march on Miraflores; great photo ops for Maduro; a hapless if not outwardly complicit Vatican, US et al. Note that Thomas Shannon from State made a surprise visit today, as usual with no comments, and probably as usual with a bad outcome in the following days. When Shannon deals with Venezuela I start shivering in fear even if it is not Halloween. True, technically all the opposition initiatives are on the freeze until November 12 when it could all start again. But does anyone think that the unity of purpose will be recovered by then? Not me.
Since this is a dialogue surely the regime made a concession somewhere. A few political prisoners were released. 5 I think, it is not clear. And not the most notorious ones, And a few dozens were incarcerated in the preceding days anyway. So, Castro style, any release is always compensated for a new jailing, a constant prison population being a healthy tool to impress the populace. Note two interesting details: no Voluntad Popular prisoner released, while all the releases were done without judicial action proving that those unfortunate souls were mere hostages to the regime, jailed because I said so, released because I got bored with them (and quite frankly in the XXI century I cannot get away as easily with murder as any dictator could in the past century).
So far so bad. Unless, my wild hope, it is all because the opposition inner sanctum knows something we do not know, something that it cannot say. Maybe Maduro is about to resign? Maybe his military are going to depose him? Maybe the inner sanctum was told to wait a couple of weeks more and all would be fine and dandy? Maybe they were told that as soon as the US election is settled Obama will send a gazillion marines, the exact number depending on the number of votes Hillary gets?
This late in the game outside UNT I do not think that any opposition leader could have been bought. There are in for the fight even though differences exist. So clearly there must be a reason, a positive reason why reasonable folks like Ramos Allup, Borges, Torrealba have swallowed hard in the past two days to sit down and call a two weeks truce. Heck, one can even hope that the "division" with Voluntad is a show to distract chavismo.
But I doubt it. I hope to be proven wrong. Give me some sign MUD!
---------------------------
Discurso de odio. En plena accion. Deshumanizando al "enemigo"...vieja receta cubana. Lo grave es q rompe reglas acordadas entre las partes pic.twitter.com/koBB4JZrfR— Rocío San Miguel (@rociosanmiguel) 2 de noviembre de 2016
Sunday, 30 October 2016
Dialogue-schmuckalogue
Today finally the first face off between the regime and the opposition under Vatican and Unasur guidance was held. Allow me to be deeply pessimistic about the prospects by just looking at the first picture.
What is wrong with that picture? Or if you prefer, what could possibly go wrong when the first scene of that movie is the one above?
Maduro IS PRESIDING!!!!!!!!! And far removed from anyone else!!!!!!
Symbols matter. Even more so when dialogue to avert civil wars are undertaken.
Here we have the guy who is the psychological focus of all that has been going wrong since Chavez died, and he is presiding? How could the opposition accept to sit down with Maduro? One thing is to try to dialogue with Maduro's people, another is to discuss under his direct oversight. At a moment when Maduro is cornered and totally done overseas, such a picture gives him a new legitimacy at home. The more so that only state TV is showing news on the scene, and manipulating the whole thing at will.
I am haggardly in shock. Well, until I found my way to this key board anyway.
What is wrong with that picture? Or if you prefer, what could possibly go wrong when the first scene of that movie is the one above?
Maduro IS PRESIDING!!!!!!!!! And far removed from anyone else!!!!!!
Symbols matter. Even more so when dialogue to avert civil wars are undertaken.
Here we have the guy who is the psychological focus of all that has been going wrong since Chavez died, and he is presiding? How could the opposition accept to sit down with Maduro? One thing is to try to dialogue with Maduro's people, another is to discuss under his direct oversight. At a moment when Maduro is cornered and totally done overseas, such a picture gives him a new legitimacy at home. The more so that only state TV is showing news on the scene, and manipulating the whole thing at will.
I am haggardly in shock. Well, until I found my way to this key board anyway.
Friday, 28 October 2016
7 ways to tell if a strike is a success
Today the opposition has called for a work stop for individuals. The regime is in full propaganda mode to claim that the move is a failure. The opposition claims it is a success. So here are 7 items to figure out whether it was a success
1- It is NOT a strike, nor a lock out. What the opposition did was to ask folks to stay put at home between 6 AM and 6 PM.
2- Whether a strike or a lock out or a stay-put, one fact is that it was called on Wednesday for Friday, not even 48 hours before it was supposed to start. A general movement of this nature is not easy to start, and it certainly require preparations so that adverse propaganda will be reduced to a minimum. In France where strikes are too regular an occurrence and where employees are highly trained at such activities, they are rarely called with less than a week notice.
3- You need to understand that the regime has used threats that it often brings to fruition. Never mind that fascist piglets like Diosdado Cabello have said they will seize whatever closes. So public employees will mostly show up for work. And many vulnerable stores/business will not close. To give you an example, my office is next to a small shopping center and this morning the NAZI-onal guard accompanied some agency to take pictures of the stores that did not open. (ADDED LATER: they made another inspection round at lunch time!)
4- Some business simply cannot close because the regime has long decided that certain sectors of the economy are of "public interest" and thus cannot do as they please. For example, all business dealing with food production or selling groceries or banks cannot close because, well, you know what will happen.
5- In addition business that work with perishables (agriculture, livestock, and the like) simply cannot stop. Period. The best they can do is to close the administrative offices but production cannot close, not even on Christmas day.
6- Other folks cannot close, like Emergency Rooms, hospital care for people that got surgery that week, etc...
7- And there is the nature of the Venezuelan. Many of us will do what they do everyday regardless of what happens outside. The bubble in which many live is truly astounding. Never mind those who say "heck, I am not working but it is a good opportunity for social visits, exercise, whatever" not realizing that their cars will be counted as activity.
So there you are, weigh carefully these parameters before you succomb to regime propaganda.
My take? The more strident the propaganda the more successful the stay-put. That gauge never fails.
As far as I can tell it is more of a success than what I thought it would be. Heck, even people like me thought it was an error to call such actions so soon!
1- It is NOT a strike, nor a lock out. What the opposition did was to ask folks to stay put at home between 6 AM and 6 PM.
2- Whether a strike or a lock out or a stay-put, one fact is that it was called on Wednesday for Friday, not even 48 hours before it was supposed to start. A general movement of this nature is not easy to start, and it certainly require preparations so that adverse propaganda will be reduced to a minimum. In France where strikes are too regular an occurrence and where employees are highly trained at such activities, they are rarely called with less than a week notice.
3- You need to understand that the regime has used threats that it often brings to fruition. Never mind that fascist piglets like Diosdado Cabello have said they will seize whatever closes. So public employees will mostly show up for work. And many vulnerable stores/business will not close. To give you an example, my office is next to a small shopping center and this morning the NAZI-onal guard accompanied some agency to take pictures of the stores that did not open. (ADDED LATER: they made another inspection round at lunch time!)
4- Some business simply cannot close because the regime has long decided that certain sectors of the economy are of "public interest" and thus cannot do as they please. For example, all business dealing with food production or selling groceries or banks cannot close because, well, you know what will happen.
5- In addition business that work with perishables (agriculture, livestock, and the like) simply cannot stop. Period. The best they can do is to close the administrative offices but production cannot close, not even on Christmas day.
6- Other folks cannot close, like Emergency Rooms, hospital care for people that got surgery that week, etc...
7- And there is the nature of the Venezuelan. Many of us will do what they do everyday regardless of what happens outside. The bubble in which many live is truly astounding. Never mind those who say "heck, I am not working but it is a good opportunity for social visits, exercise, whatever" not realizing that their cars will be counted as activity.
So there you are, weigh carefully these parameters before you succomb to regime propaganda.
My take? The more strident the propaganda the more successful the stay-put. That gauge never fails.
As far as I can tell it is more of a success than what I thought it would be. Heck, even people like me thought it was an error to call such actions so soon!
Thursday, 27 October 2016
The splendors of well aged chavismo
Thus we are in the middle of a social, economic and, thus, political crisis of major proportions. The regime assuredly thinks about what to do to counter an opposition that has been setting up the agenda for quite a while now. After a massive brain storm they come up with a minimum wage increase of 40% . I think, I cannot even be bothered to check whether it is 40 or X: it makes no difference.
So chavismo is recurring to the LONE policy it knows: throw good money after bad. Even if now it needs to print it.
OK, I could still deal with that. But what I cannot wrap my mind around is that the regime calls it a major success to raise wages artificially for the fourth time in one year. Never mind that the wage increase may be no more than a fourth of inflation, tanking any purchasing power at any pay scale...
Of course, I have heard today employees happy about the increase. Note, I heard more of them bitch that it is not enough and will solve nothing. But the point is that after two years of massive inflation and food shortages you can still find people that cannot see economical connections between the way the economy is run and their wallet problems.
While we are at it, they probably do not see connections between expropriation of private business and shortages. Which explains why the outlaw of Diosdado Cabello threatened to take over any idle business tomorrow. That works right into the chavista mind set that inflation and shortages are nothing but a conspiracy. Which also explains why tonight we had state security in front of POLAR's Lorenzo Mendoza office, and home, waiting for him. Probably they finally decided to torture him so he reveals where 2 years of food for 30 million of Venezuelans is hidden. Maybe in his basement.
We are a country of idiots, them for believing such crap and me for not going postal.
Wednesday, 26 October 2016
The rebellion has started
What else could the regime expect today after the annulation of all elections? Or is is it what the regime hoped for? And will it still be of any use for the regime this late a confrontation?
What has happened today is transcendent, on many aspects.
The causes are the naked abuse of the regime which has refused to recognize the duly elected majority of the National Assembly. A regime that has refused to recognize the constitutional right to call for a a recall election. A regime that has suspended all elections until they decide to hold them again, someday, when conditions are good for them. A regime that has decided to assault the national assembly. And of course, most importantly, a regime that has left its population with not enough food, not enough medicine and not enough money to buy from the little that is left to find.
In not even 48 hours the opposition managed to organize spontaneously what is probably the largest NATION WIDE protest ever in our history. If the Caracas one was not as large than the one on September, it remains quite impressive as per the picture above in front of the military base of La Carlota, without even bothering to ask for permission tot he regime. Think about that for a second. The opposition simply called it and people came. What makes the day noteworthy is that in many cities of the countries huge opposition rallies materialized at the same time, resulting in a major show of strength for the opposition, duly noted even on French TV tonight.
The only thing chavismo could manage was a handful of "supporter" public employees at the gate of Miraflores. They did not even tried to have some thing significant, they knew that they would not be able to fill up the buses with enough people to carry, no matter how much pressure and/or cash to attend they would provide.
However what they did was to repress. Not in Caracas, mind you, where all eyes are, but inside the country where they think that the world watches less and where they assume that people can be sacred easier to get back in line. We had dozens of arrests and injuries during the day, with an extremely worrying high rate of rubber bullets shot in the face of people, as close to the eyes as possible. A vicious attack, without doubt inspired by the fascist ways of repression the regime imported from Cuba.
The results of all of this are varied and not encouraging.
The first victim is the carelessly dialogue called by the Vatican next Sunday, a clumsiness that surprises everyone. Then again the US and the Vatican have always had in mind solving the Cuban situation thorough Venezuelan pockets never caring much for the fate of the Venezuelan opposition. It will remain one of the biggest failure of US or Vatican diplomacy, to underestimate the level of despair AND resolve of the Venezuelan opposition, a mistake that could cost Obama's"legacy" a big chunk. Never mind Francis himself though he still can recover better than the US.
The second result is that the regime has got in overdrive, invoking article 323 of the constitution, a preamble of sorts to suspend the constitution altogether. Except that ironically the decisions taken out of 323 have a validity only if the chair of the national assembly signs them. Not that it matters much for the regime, of course. But that seems a little paltry after all the other violations of the Constitution by the regime that justify in full all that the National Assembly has decided to undertake. These are also in agreement with the constitution, and include removing illegally appointed justices and electoral board, citing Maduro for investigation on many issues, etc...
The third result may be the most momentous. After today's true show of strength that not even the regime propaganda is taking down with its usual cynicism, the opposition has called for a general strike on Friday and a march on Miraflores Palace on November 3. That is, either the regime decides to give concrete and real responses NOW or the insurrection not only will start but probably could not be controlled by the opposition.
I wrote, and many others, that the regime sought violence as a way to sustain its power. Hence so many provocations. But violence is not necessarily the solution for the regime if it did not happen at the right time. Now, with a long suffering country, the violence that the regime is unleashing seem to scare many of them actually, as a demon that they are not sure they can control to their advantage. In 2014 it worked and gave the regime two more years but this time around conditions are different.
--------------------------------
What follows below does not quite belong tot he the stream of the text above. call it additional info.
First it was my own attendance to the march rally in the picture above. There is my two videos on Instagram
The second one is a flag sales guy. What is remarkable is that he was openly selling 7 star flags, those of the pre Chavez era. Quite a symbol that those are now the flags made and sold at marches....
This was one of the marches across Venezuela. This one from Barquisimeto.
And a couple of videos on today's repression. You can clearly see how the police was facilitating the chavista storm troopers actions. Observe when the masked aggressor points at the window of the movie takers. Fascism. The real stuff.
And to finish all, in case you doubt how angry Venezuelans are becoming at the regime...
 |
| A fraction of the river of people in Caracas today October 27 2016 |
What has happened today is transcendent, on many aspects.
The causes are the naked abuse of the regime which has refused to recognize the duly elected majority of the National Assembly. A regime that has refused to recognize the constitutional right to call for a a recall election. A regime that has suspended all elections until they decide to hold them again, someday, when conditions are good for them. A regime that has decided to assault the national assembly. And of course, most importantly, a regime that has left its population with not enough food, not enough medicine and not enough money to buy from the little that is left to find.
In not even 48 hours the opposition managed to organize spontaneously what is probably the largest NATION WIDE protest ever in our history. If the Caracas one was not as large than the one on September, it remains quite impressive as per the picture above in front of the military base of La Carlota, without even bothering to ask for permission tot he regime. Think about that for a second. The opposition simply called it and people came. What makes the day noteworthy is that in many cities of the countries huge opposition rallies materialized at the same time, resulting in a major show of strength for the opposition, duly noted even on French TV tonight.
The only thing chavismo could manage was a handful of "supporter" public employees at the gate of Miraflores. They did not even tried to have some thing significant, they knew that they would not be able to fill up the buses with enough people to carry, no matter how much pressure and/or cash to attend they would provide.
However what they did was to repress. Not in Caracas, mind you, where all eyes are, but inside the country where they think that the world watches less and where they assume that people can be sacred easier to get back in line. We had dozens of arrests and injuries during the day, with an extremely worrying high rate of rubber bullets shot in the face of people, as close to the eyes as possible. A vicious attack, without doubt inspired by the fascist ways of repression the regime imported from Cuba.
The results of all of this are varied and not encouraging.
The first victim is the carelessly dialogue called by the Vatican next Sunday, a clumsiness that surprises everyone. Then again the US and the Vatican have always had in mind solving the Cuban situation thorough Venezuelan pockets never caring much for the fate of the Venezuelan opposition. It will remain one of the biggest failure of US or Vatican diplomacy, to underestimate the level of despair AND resolve of the Venezuelan opposition, a mistake that could cost Obama's"legacy" a big chunk. Never mind Francis himself though he still can recover better than the US.
The second result is that the regime has got in overdrive, invoking article 323 of the constitution, a preamble of sorts to suspend the constitution altogether. Except that ironically the decisions taken out of 323 have a validity only if the chair of the national assembly signs them. Not that it matters much for the regime, of course. But that seems a little paltry after all the other violations of the Constitution by the regime that justify in full all that the National Assembly has decided to undertake. These are also in agreement with the constitution, and include removing illegally appointed justices and electoral board, citing Maduro for investigation on many issues, etc...
The third result may be the most momentous. After today's true show of strength that not even the regime propaganda is taking down with its usual cynicism, the opposition has called for a general strike on Friday and a march on Miraflores Palace on November 3. That is, either the regime decides to give concrete and real responses NOW or the insurrection not only will start but probably could not be controlled by the opposition.
I wrote, and many others, that the regime sought violence as a way to sustain its power. Hence so many provocations. But violence is not necessarily the solution for the regime if it did not happen at the right time. Now, with a long suffering country, the violence that the regime is unleashing seem to scare many of them actually, as a demon that they are not sure they can control to their advantage. In 2014 it worked and gave the regime two more years but this time around conditions are different.
--------------------------------
What follows below does not quite belong tot he the stream of the text above. call it additional info.
First it was my own attendance to the march rally in the picture above. There is my two videos on Instagram
The second one is a flag sales guy. What is remarkable is that he was openly selling 7 star flags, those of the pre Chavez era. Quite a symbol that those are now the flags made and sold at marches....
This was one of the marches across Venezuela. This one from Barquisimeto.
Aquí en Barquisimeto,las calles no fueron suficientes para toda la cantidad de ciudadanos q salimos a marchar pic.twitter.com/HVcg0Ex0YC— lorena perata (@lorenaperata) 26 de octubre de 2016
And a couple of videos on today's repression. You can clearly see how the police was facilitating the chavista storm troopers actions. Observe when the masked aggressor points at the window of the movie takers. Fascism. The real stuff.
@trafficTACHIRA @traffiCARACAS como se unen los policías + tupamaros para reprimir pic.twitter.com/rKewRGa2Es— norelis garcia (@norelisgarcia4) 26 de octubre de 2016
La Policia del Estado no les basta con reprimir al pueblo sino además descaradamente protegen a los malandros del gobierno #Mérida pic.twitter.com/OYD3drZUk6— Carlos García (@CarlosGarc1a) 26 de octubre de 2016
And to finish all, in case you doubt how angry Venezuelans are becoming at the regime...
Mujeres tachirenses impidiendo q efectivos militares disolvieran protesta cerca del CNE San Cristòbal. #LaTomaDeVenezuela #Táchira pic.twitter.com/1yJ4molZJS— Luz Dary Depablos (@luzdarydepablos) 26 de octubre de 2016
Sunday, 23 October 2016
Our Reichstag moment
It never ends well when a group uses its hordes to take a properly elected assembly (reichstag, French revolution) pic.twitter.com/EadEBmJEvn— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) 23 de octubre de 2016
This is the tropics, this is a banana republic. What else could one expect but the picture above which should be making a few international front pages tonight.
The assault was planned as a mob scene. There is even an intercepted audio that may suggest active military involvement, instead of guaranteeing the security of a special Sunday National Assembly session. Whatever it was, it had no spontaneity whatsoever. It was a group coming from "colectivos" which are nothing more than a cross between S.S. and Cuban "comités de defensa de la revolución". The whole led by Caracas mayor, Jorge Rodriguez, who managed to look more the dissociated psychopath than ever. There is an actual doubt as to whether he was running the show. It is probable that at some level he realized that the regime did not need further discredit this week... Then again....
At any rate, eventually the National Assembly managed to vote a resolution and it is a a red line. Crossed by the regime, by the way. Using the article 333 of the constitution (the 350 for outright rebellion is reserved for soon enough, I suppose) the National Assembly has decided that Maduro has perpetrated a coup and thus the Assembly needs to do the following:
- Demand that international organizations take notice and apply the necessary sanctions
- That Maduro should be brought for trial in front of the Assembly for the constitution violations and his own questioned right to be president
- Renew all the powers that helped Maduro commit the coup, namely the electoral Board CNE and the constitutional court TSJ
- Demand that the army, once and for all, decides which side of the constitution they stand
So now the regime has either to close down the National Assembly, or Maduro needs to resign, or, as the Church has apparently suggested, everybody resigns and we vote on EVERY elected official.
My bet is on the first one.
------
SIDE NOTES
1- For the records, even Venezuelan dictatorships did not dare to assault Congress the way colectivos did today. The last time something like that happened in Venezuela was on January 28 1848 when Monagas, an ELECTED constitutional president, decided to do without an opposition and sent a mob to Congress.
2- For some obscure reason I counted at least two rainbow flags in the mob. It is of course possible that the lumpen colectivos confuse such flag with the multicolored flag used by the Bolivian natives in their rallies and feasts (and own revolutions). But I think the gay theme applies. Now, besides the fact that these people do not represent me whatsoever, nor I am willing to bet the immense majority of gay people in Venezuela, I cannot fathom how can they, at this point, support the Chavez regime. Under that regime Venezuela has become a most backward place in our continent. Not only the 1999 did not write in the gay marriage but this one has been approved by many countries since while the regime sat on it. There is no real legislation against hate crimes. There is no rights for spouses (I can vouch for the difficulties that this causes with my partner disease). HIV medication has become scarce and new treatments available anywhere are not making it to Venezuela. And of course, there is constant homophobic language of the regime.
And yet, there was that guy waving the rainbow flag in a hallway of the National Assembly. Goes to tell you how easy it is to make idiotic through propaganda the defenseless poor lumpen, going beyond the Stockholm syndrome.
In today's assembly assault there was that supporter of regime that has refused gay marriage, does not pursue hate crimes, denies HIV drugs pic.twitter.com/xN0W0pp0q1— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) 23 de octubre de 2016
PS: looking closely at the flags they do not ring quite like the rainbow flag. There may have been the identification flag of a given colectivo?. I am floating this in case some body has information. At any rate, these are poorly executed flags and Venezuelan gay people should not allow idiots use our symbols for such objectives as killing democracy.
Saturday, 22 October 2016
Recall Election gone. So what?
I suppose I should write about the annulation of the Recall Election. I had guessed long ago that it would not happen. The intensity of the dislike toward Maduro is so strong, even among chavistas, that the regime could not allow CNN document the huge lines that would have formed for three days this week. They had no stomach for that, it was better to use an idiotic legal sophistry and send it all ad patres.
To concur with the prevalent head line this week end that Venezuela is officially a dictatorship is an hypocrisy. I have long said it so and I am actually upset at some people having trying to avoid the D world finally pouting it. As if annulling the Recall Election was more despicable than, say, having political prisoners, forcing those freed into exile, stealing the budget of the nation, and more,
I will just comment on how ridiculous the pretext to kill the Recall Election was. In short, a sub judge in Podunk decided that the CNE had not done its job to vet all the signatures for the 1% collection to start the process. The ridicule, of declaring themselves incompetent through their beloved electoral ministry, CNE, is something they cannot worry about anymore. The obsessive objective is to never leave office. All considerations be dammed.
That is all that there is to it.
Now what?
To concur with the prevalent head line this week end that Venezuela is officially a dictatorship is an hypocrisy. I have long said it so and I am actually upset at some people having trying to avoid the D world finally pouting it. As if annulling the Recall Election was more despicable than, say, having political prisoners, forcing those freed into exile, stealing the budget of the nation, and more,
I will just comment on how ridiculous the pretext to kill the Recall Election was. In short, a sub judge in Podunk decided that the CNE had not done its job to vet all the signatures for the 1% collection to start the process. The ridicule, of declaring themselves incompetent through their beloved electoral ministry, CNE, is something they cannot worry about anymore. The obsessive objective is to never leave office. All considerations be dammed.
That is all that there is to it.
Now what?
Saturday, 15 October 2016
So? Can we all agree on the D word?
This is kind of a melancholy post. For years now I have been calling this a dictatorship. It took sometime to start seeing it expressed in the foreign press. And even as I type there are some in Venezuela or overseas (I am looking at you, Zapatero just for today's denialist) that still refuse to use the D word, expecting who knows what leniency from who knows where.
For me the D word applies since Chavez closed Radio Caracas in 2007. Or if you want a more material date you can use early 2013 when the constitutional coup of the moment allowed Maduro to become Chavez successor. And many other moments you may prefer. It really does not matter much, the dictatorial nature of the regime has been obvious from the start, from the very first social program of Chavez "Plan Bolivar 2000" that established the Venezuelan army as a discretionary manager of public money, and thus corruption.
I remember it all. Try me.
This year the dictatorship has been forced to become more frontal, more classical. Until this year the excuse that Venezuela was an autocratic regime and not a dictatorship was that the opposition did manage some electoral victories, that there were still an opposition paper here and there, albeit on trial. Etc. But all those were mere excuses. For the left there was no way that the beloved populist could have generated such a monstrously corrupt and inefficient system. For the right it was that declaring Venezuela to be a dictatorship would mean taking action for which democrats seem to have lost the taste for, and for quite a while now. The last outrage and successful international take, if I remember well, was against Fujimori who in my book is not any worse than Chavez, and certainly less calamitous for the general welfare of the people. Honduras and Paraguay were mere side shows where the changes eventually prevailed because, well, these changes had a true legal foundation.
But never was Chavez to be sternly criticized until Argentina's Macri made it to office. And yet, with more bark than bite so far.
But now things have become unacceptable and Venezuela is preparing to be suspended from Mercosur in a little bit more than a month while the OAS may suddenly decided to make a concrete Democratic Chart application. Only Erdogan receives Maduro.
Since last December the regime has proceded to the following:
*Using the judicial power to block almost all actions from the National Assembly
*Rule through a state of emergency system bypassing any legal control
*Go through a wave of arrestations and creation of political prisoners without any legal supervision, with "evidence" planted directly by the people performing the arrest
*Sue the last two remaining national daily papers
*Block any control activity that the National Assembly has in the constitution
*Suspend any election, going as far as saying that elections were not an important right
*Dispose of national assets to find fresh cash
*Decree that all remaining private companies must sell 50% of their production to the government
*Etc...... including heavy intelligence insulting propaganda to pretend that all is fine and dandy in Venezuela
But the latest was in my opinion a fatal mistake for the regime. Maduro decided that the National Budget would be approved by decree law, with the support of course of the Judicial Constitutional Court. Now, I am not going to go into the unconstitutional and illegal ways in which the regime decides taxation and how it disposes of the funds through appointed folks.Trust me, the case is clear against the regime.
Since "No taxation without representation", and we know how that ended, it has been the rule in any and every democracy that the budget must be validated by a parliament. Even if that parliament is elected under fraud, but there must be a Parliament Act. Why is such a parliamentary act a requirement? Because it is the contract symbol that the state is the guarantor of the money lent or borrowed. Failure to do such an act means simply that the only responsible party is the guy in charge and that his mere death slipping at night in the bathtub is enough to question whether his successor has any obligation in fulfilling previous commitments.
In short, if you lend money to the Venezuelan government as of today, you have zero guarantee, LEGAL guarantee, that you will ever be paid back (that we are broke and unable to pay our debt is another story, but I digress). And considering that the guy in charge, Maduro, is an ass, with a shaky hold at best, I wonder who will bail the country out...
There are two implications here.
First, obviously, that taking over discretionary disposition of all the nation's income is the most naked act of dictatorship a regime can do. Never mind that in the same ceremony where the "budget" was signed Maduro already decided that he would not give money to any opposition district which by law he is forced to do, even if he has way to deliver less than the survival requirements of such districts. Thus now we are free from having to discuss over and over the dictatorial nature of the regime. All understand money, all understand that Maduro has officially privatized the budget. Even commies understand that.
The second consideration is that we are in big trouble. If the regime has resorted to such an extreme move it is because it feels that its end is near, that too many inside the regime are about to meet their legal destiny in some court. Since it has been proven amply that the regime could not care less about the welfare of the people (starvation cases, distressing lack of heath care for which I can personally vouch for as my SO has been left without chemotherapeutic without the possibility of legally buy it overseas) then it has been easy for them to take the final decision.
By privatizing the national budget the regime grabs directly whatever is left of the country resources to use them to support Cuba and the repression machinery needed to remain in office. That is right, there is not enough money for the rest, it will all be used to sustain the repression and ensuring a minimum of popular support to be able to recruit enough of those that will do that repression. I will note that the forced sale of 50% of production (that will probably not be paid on time, if at all, and after having lost all relevant value due to inflation) represents about what the regime can physically manage in that legal robbery handling, and what it needs roughly for its CLAP distribution system (who not surprisingly in the beggarly nature of chavismo support has allowed Maduro to get back to 30% in polls). Never mind that by forcing such sale the regime acknowledges that all the expropriations made under Chavez have only yielded a cemetery of once food producing businesses.
So there it is, the regime has played its last card.
The regime could not possibly care less about what the fate of the country and its people may be. There is no other card to be played, there is no expropriation that can be done which can satisfy the needs of the people, unless looting of homes is next. Expropriation of banks is useless when inflation is scheduled to be 4 digits next year. Nothing left for populism, not even borrowing as no one will be foolish enough to lend a penny to the the regime now. All has been wasted. There is only the little bit of food produced by the private sector and a worthless budget which can at least pay for the criminals that are needed for public order.
For me the D word applies since Chavez closed Radio Caracas in 2007. Or if you want a more material date you can use early 2013 when the constitutional coup of the moment allowed Maduro to become Chavez successor. And many other moments you may prefer. It really does not matter much, the dictatorial nature of the regime has been obvious from the start, from the very first social program of Chavez "Plan Bolivar 2000" that established the Venezuelan army as a discretionary manager of public money, and thus corruption.
I remember it all. Try me.
This year the dictatorship has been forced to become more frontal, more classical. Until this year the excuse that Venezuela was an autocratic regime and not a dictatorship was that the opposition did manage some electoral victories, that there were still an opposition paper here and there, albeit on trial. Etc. But all those were mere excuses. For the left there was no way that the beloved populist could have generated such a monstrously corrupt and inefficient system. For the right it was that declaring Venezuela to be a dictatorship would mean taking action for which democrats seem to have lost the taste for, and for quite a while now. The last outrage and successful international take, if I remember well, was against Fujimori who in my book is not any worse than Chavez, and certainly less calamitous for the general welfare of the people. Honduras and Paraguay were mere side shows where the changes eventually prevailed because, well, these changes had a true legal foundation.
But never was Chavez to be sternly criticized until Argentina's Macri made it to office. And yet, with more bark than bite so far.
But now things have become unacceptable and Venezuela is preparing to be suspended from Mercosur in a little bit more than a month while the OAS may suddenly decided to make a concrete Democratic Chart application. Only Erdogan receives Maduro.
Since last December the regime has proceded to the following:
*Using the judicial power to block almost all actions from the National Assembly
*Rule through a state of emergency system bypassing any legal control
*Go through a wave of arrestations and creation of political prisoners without any legal supervision, with "evidence" planted directly by the people performing the arrest
*Sue the last two remaining national daily papers
*Block any control activity that the National Assembly has in the constitution
*Suspend any election, going as far as saying that elections were not an important right
*Dispose of national assets to find fresh cash
*Decree that all remaining private companies must sell 50% of their production to the government
*Etc...... including heavy intelligence insulting propaganda to pretend that all is fine and dandy in Venezuela
But the latest was in my opinion a fatal mistake for the regime. Maduro decided that the National Budget would be approved by decree law, with the support of course of the Judicial Constitutional Court. Now, I am not going to go into the unconstitutional and illegal ways in which the regime decides taxation and how it disposes of the funds through appointed folks.Trust me, the case is clear against the regime.
Since "No taxation without representation", and we know how that ended, it has been the rule in any and every democracy that the budget must be validated by a parliament. Even if that parliament is elected under fraud, but there must be a Parliament Act. Why is such a parliamentary act a requirement? Because it is the contract symbol that the state is the guarantor of the money lent or borrowed. Failure to do such an act means simply that the only responsible party is the guy in charge and that his mere death slipping at night in the bathtub is enough to question whether his successor has any obligation in fulfilling previous commitments.
In short, if you lend money to the Venezuelan government as of today, you have zero guarantee, LEGAL guarantee, that you will ever be paid back (that we are broke and unable to pay our debt is another story, but I digress). And considering that the guy in charge, Maduro, is an ass, with a shaky hold at best, I wonder who will bail the country out...
There are two implications here.
First, obviously, that taking over discretionary disposition of all the nation's income is the most naked act of dictatorship a regime can do. Never mind that in the same ceremony where the "budget" was signed Maduro already decided that he would not give money to any opposition district which by law he is forced to do, even if he has way to deliver less than the survival requirements of such districts. Thus now we are free from having to discuss over and over the dictatorial nature of the regime. All understand money, all understand that Maduro has officially privatized the budget. Even commies understand that.
The second consideration is that we are in big trouble. If the regime has resorted to such an extreme move it is because it feels that its end is near, that too many inside the regime are about to meet their legal destiny in some court. Since it has been proven amply that the regime could not care less about the welfare of the people (starvation cases, distressing lack of heath care for which I can personally vouch for as my SO has been left without chemotherapeutic without the possibility of legally buy it overseas) then it has been easy for them to take the final decision.
By privatizing the national budget the regime grabs directly whatever is left of the country resources to use them to support Cuba and the repression machinery needed to remain in office. That is right, there is not enough money for the rest, it will all be used to sustain the repression and ensuring a minimum of popular support to be able to recruit enough of those that will do that repression. I will note that the forced sale of 50% of production (that will probably not be paid on time, if at all, and after having lost all relevant value due to inflation) represents about what the regime can physically manage in that legal robbery handling, and what it needs roughly for its CLAP distribution system (who not surprisingly in the beggarly nature of chavismo support has allowed Maduro to get back to 30% in polls). Never mind that by forcing such sale the regime acknowledges that all the expropriations made under Chavez have only yielded a cemetery of once food producing businesses.
So there it is, the regime has played its last card.
The regime could not possibly care less about what the fate of the country and its people may be. There is no other card to be played, there is no expropriation that can be done which can satisfy the needs of the people, unless looting of homes is next. Expropriation of banks is useless when inflation is scheduled to be 4 digits next year. Nothing left for populism, not even borrowing as no one will be foolish enough to lend a penny to the the regime now. All has been wasted. There is only the little bit of food produced by the private sector and a worthless budget which can at least pay for the criminals that are needed for public order.
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