Dialogue-schmuckalogue

Today finally the first face off between the regime and the opposition under Vatican and Unasur guidance was held. Allow me to be deeply pessimistic about the prospects by just looking at the first picture.

What is wrong with that picture? Or if you prefer, what could possibly go wrong when the first scene of that movie is the one above?

Maduro IS PRESIDING!!!!!!!!! And far removed from anyone else!!!!!!

Symbols matter. Even more so when dialogue to avert civil wars are undertaken.

Here we have the guy who is the psychological focus of all that has been going wrong since Chavez died, and he is presiding? How could the opposition accept to sit down with Maduro? One thing is to try to dialogue with Maduro's people, another is to discuss under his direct oversight. At a moment when Maduro is cornered and totally done overseas, such a picture gives him a new legitimacy at home. The more so that only state TV is showing news on the scene, and manipulating the whole thing at will.

I am haggardly in shock. Well, until I found my way to this key board anyway.

7 ways to tell if a strike is a success

Today the opposition has called for a work stop for individuals. The regime is in full propaganda mode to claim that the move is a failure. The opposition claims it is a success. So here are 7 items to figure out whether it was a success

1- It is NOT a strike, nor a lock out. What the opposition did was to ask folks to stay put at home between 6 AM and 6 PM.


2- Whether a strike or a lock out or a stay-put, one fact is that it was called on Wednesday for Friday, not even 48 hours before it was supposed to start. A general movement of this nature is not easy to start, and it certainly require preparations so that adverse propaganda will be reduced to a minimum. In France where strikes are too regular an occurrence and where employees are highly trained at such activities, they are rarely called with less than a week notice.

3- You need to understand that the regime has used threats that it often brings to fruition. Never mind that fascist piglets like Diosdado Cabello have said they will seize whatever closes. So public employees will mostly show up for work. And many vulnerable stores/business will not close. To give you an example, my office is next to a small shopping center and this morning the NAZI-onal guard accompanied some agency to take pictures of the stores that did not open. (ADDED LATER: they made another inspection round at lunch time!)

4- Some business simply cannot close because the regime has long decided that certain sectors of the economy are of "public interest" and thus cannot do as they please. For example, all business dealing with food production or selling groceries or banks cannot close because, well, you know what will happen.

5- In addition business that work with perishables (agriculture, livestock, and the like) simply cannot stop. Period. The best they can do is to close the administrative offices but production cannot close, not even on Christmas day.

6- Other folks cannot close, like Emergency Rooms, hospital care for people that got surgery that week, etc...

7- And there is the nature of the Venezuelan. Many of us will do what they do everyday regardless of what happens outside. The bubble in which many live is truly astounding. Never mind those who say "heck, I am not working but it is a good opportunity for social visits, exercise, whatever" not realizing that their cars will be counted as activity.

So there you are, weigh carefully these parameters before you succomb to regime propaganda.

My take?  The more strident the propaganda the more successful the stay-put. That gauge never fails.

As far as I can tell it is more of a success than what I thought it would be. Heck, even people like me thought it was an error to call such actions so soon!

The splendors of well aged chavismo

Thus we are in the middle of a social, economic and, thus, political crisis of major proportions. The regime assuredly thinks about what to do to counter an opposition that has been setting up the agenda for quite a while now. After a massive brain storm they come up with a minimum wage increase of 40% . I think, I cannot even be bothered to check whether it is 40 or X: it makes no difference.

So chavismo is recurring to the LONE policy it knows: throw good money after bad. Even if now it needs to print it.

OK, I could still deal with that. But what I cannot wrap my mind around is that the regime calls it a major success to raise wages artificially for the fourth time in one year. Never mind that the wage increase may be no more than a fourth of inflation, tanking any purchasing power at any pay scale...

Of course, I have heard today employees happy about the increase. Note, I heard more of them bitch that it is not enough and will solve nothing. But the point is that after two years of massive inflation  and food shortages you can still find people that cannot see economical connections between the way the economy is run and their wallet problems.

While we are at it, they probably do not see connections between expropriation of private business and shortages.  Which explains why the outlaw of Diosdado Cabello threatened to take over any idle business tomorrow. That works right into the chavista mind set that inflation and shortages are nothing but a conspiracy. Which also explains why tonight we had state security in front of POLAR's Lorenzo Mendoza office, and home, waiting for him.  Probably they finally decided to torture him so he reveals where 2 years of food for 30 million of Venezuelans is hidden. Maybe in his basement.

We are a country of idiots, them for  believing such crap and me for not going postal.

The rebellion has started

What else could the regime expect today after the annulation of all elections? Or is is it what the regime hoped for? And will it still be of any use for the regime this late a confrontation?

A fraction of the river of people in Caracas today October 27 2016

What has happened today is transcendent, on many aspects.


The causes are the naked abuse of the regime which has refused to recognize the duly elected majority of the National Assembly. A regime that has refused to recognize the constitutional right to call for a a recall election. A regime that has suspended all elections until they decide to hold them again, someday, when conditions are good for them. A regime that has decided to assault the national assembly. And of course, most importantly, a regime that has left its population with not enough food, not enough medicine and not enough money to buy from the little that is left to find.

In not even 48 hours the opposition managed to organize spontaneously what is probably the largest NATION WIDE protest ever in our history. If the Caracas one was not as large than the one on September, it remains quite impressive as per the picture above in front of the military base of La Carlota, without even bothering to ask for permission tot he regime. Think about that for a second. The opposition simply called it and people came. What makes the day noteworthy is that in many cities of the countries huge opposition rallies materialized at the same time, resulting in a major show of strength for the opposition, duly noted even on French TV tonight.

The only thing chavismo could manage was a handful of  "supporter" public employees at the gate of Miraflores. They did not even tried to have some thing significant, they knew that they would not be able to fill up the buses with enough people to carry, no matter how much pressure and/or cash to attend they would provide.

However what they did was to repress. Not in Caracas, mind you, where all eyes are, but inside the country where they think that the world watches less and where they assume that people can be sacred easier to get back in line. We had dozens of arrests and injuries during the day, with an extremely worrying high rate of rubber bullets shot in the face of people, as close to the eyes as possible. A vicious attack, without doubt inspired by the fascist ways of repression the regime imported from Cuba.

The results of all of this are varied and not encouraging.

The first victim is the carelessly dialogue called by the Vatican next Sunday, a clumsiness that surprises everyone. Then again the US and the Vatican have always had in mind solving the Cuban situation thorough Venezuelan pockets never caring much for the fate of the Venezuelan opposition. It will remain one of the biggest failure of US or Vatican diplomacy, to underestimate the level of despair AND resolve of the Venezuelan opposition, a mistake that could cost Obama's"legacy" a big chunk. Never mind Francis himself though he still can recover better than the US.

The second result is that the regime has got in overdrive, invoking article 323 of the constitution, a preamble of sorts to suspend the constitution altogether. Except that ironically the decisions taken out of 323 have a validity only if the chair of the national assembly signs them. Not that it matters much for the regime, of course. But that seems a little paltry after all the other violations of the Constitution by the regime that justify in full all that the National Assembly has decided to undertake. These are also in agreement with the constitution, and include removing illegally appointed justices and electoral board, citing Maduro for investigation on many issues, etc...

The third result may be the most momentous. After today's true show of strength that not even the regime propaganda is taking down with its usual cynicism, the opposition has called for a general strike on Friday and a march on Miraflores Palace on November 3. That is, either the regime decides to give concrete and real responses NOW or the insurrection not only will start but probably could not be controlled by the opposition.

I wrote, and many others, that the regime sought violence as a way to sustain its power. Hence so many provocations. But violence is not necessarily the solution for the regime if it did not happen at the right time. Now, with a long suffering country, the violence that the regime is unleashing seem to scare many of them actually, as a demon that they are not sure they can control to their advantage. In 2014 it worked and gave the regime two more years but this time around conditions are different.

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What follows below does not quite belong tot he the stream of the text above. call it additional info.

First it was my own attendance to the march rally in the picture above.  There is my two videos on Instagram

I was there, the first day of the open resistance against the now dictator Maduro. We did what we should have some for quite a while already: block Caracas by taking over the major thoroughway.

A video posted by daniel duquenal (@duquenal_at_vnv) on Oct 26, 2016 at 1:24pm PDT

The second one is a flag sales guy. What is remarkable is that he was openly selling 7 star flags, those of the pre Chavez era. Quite a symbol that those are now the flags made and sold at marches....

The return of the 7 ✴ The opposition feeling is so strong that they making again the pre Chavez 7 star flag and peddling loud it at marches!

A video posted by daniel duquenal (@duquenal_at_vnv) on Oct 26, 2016 at 1:15pm PDT

This was one of the marches across Venezuela. This one from Barquisimeto.

Aquí en Barquisimeto,las calles no fueron suficientes para toda la cantidad de ciudadanos q salimos a marchar pic.twitter.com/HVcg0Ex0YC

— lorena perata (@lorenaperata) 26 de octubre de 2016

And a couple of videos on today's repression. You can clearly see how the police was facilitating the chavista storm troopers actions. Observe when the masked aggressor points at the window of the movie takers. Fascism. The real stuff.

@trafficTACHIRA @traffiCARACAS como se unen los policías + tupamaros para reprimir pic.twitter.com/rKewRGa2Es

— norelis garcia (@norelisgarcia4) 26 de octubre de 2016

La Policia del Estado no les basta con reprimir al pueblo sino además descaradamente protegen a los malandros del gobierno #Mérida pic.twitter.com/OYD3drZUk6

— Carlos García (@CarlosGarc1a) 26 de octubre de 2016

And to finish all, in case you doubt how angry Venezuelans are becoming at the regime...

Mujeres tachirenses impidiendo q efectivos militares disolvieran protesta cerca del CNE San Cristòbal. #LaTomaDeVenezuela #Táchira pic.twitter.com/1yJ4molZJS

— Luz Dary Depablos (@luzdarydepablos) 26 de octubre de 2016

Our Reichstag moment

It never ends well when a group uses its hordes to take a properly elected assembly (reichstag, French revolution) pic.twitter.com/EadEBmJEvn

— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) 23 de octubre de 2016

This is the tropics, this is a banana republic. What else could one expect but the picture above which should be making a few international front pages tonight.


The assault was planned as a mob scene. There is even an intercepted audio that may suggest active military involvement, instead of guaranteeing the security of a special Sunday National Assembly session. Whatever it was, it had no spontaneity whatsoever. It was a group coming from "colectivos" which are nothing more than a cross between S.S. and Cuban "comités de defensa de la revolución". The whole led by Caracas mayor, Jorge Rodriguez, who managed to look more the dissociated psychopath than ever. There is an actual doubt as to whether he was running the show. It is probable that at some level he realized that the regime did not need further discredit this week... Then again....

At any rate, eventually the National Assembly managed to vote a resolution and it is a a red line. Crossed by the regime, by the way. Using the article 333 of the constitution (the 350 for outright rebellion is reserved for soon enough, I suppose) the National Assembly has decided that Maduro has perpetrated a coup and thus the Assembly needs to do the following:
- Demand that international organizations take notice and apply the necessary sanctions
- That Maduro should be brought for trial in front of the Assembly for the constitution violations and his own questioned right to be president
- Renew all the powers that helped Maduro commit the coup, namely the electoral Board CNE and the constitutional court TSJ
- Demand that the army, once and for all, decides which side of the constitution they stand

So now the regime has either to close down the National Assembly, or Maduro needs to resign, or, as the Church has apparently suggested, everybody resigns and we vote on EVERY elected official.

My bet is on the first one.
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SIDE NOTES

1- For the records, even Venezuelan dictatorships did not dare to assault Congress the way colectivos did today. The last time something like that happened in Venezuela was on January 28 1848 when Monagas, an ELECTED constitutional president, decided to do without an opposition and sent a mob to Congress.

2- For some obscure reason I counted at least two rainbow flags in the mob. It is of course possible that the lumpen colectivos confuse such flag with the multicolored flag used by the Bolivian natives in their rallies and feasts (and own revolutions).  But I think the gay theme applies. Now, besides the fact that these people do not represent me whatsoever, nor I am willing to bet the immense majority of gay people in Venezuela, I cannot fathom how can they, at this point, support the Chavez regime. Under that regime Venezuela has become a most backward place in our continent. Not only the 1999 did not write in the gay marriage but this one has been approved by many countries since while the regime sat on it.  There is no real legislation against hate crimes. There is no rights for spouses (I can vouch for the difficulties that this causes with my partner disease). HIV medication has become scarce and new treatments available anywhere are not making it to Venezuela. And of course, there is constant homophobic language of the regime.

And yet, there was that guy waving the rainbow flag in a hallway of the National Assembly. Goes to tell you how easy it is to make idiotic through propaganda the defenseless poor lumpen, going beyond the Stockholm syndrome.

In today's assembly assault there was that supporter of regime that has refused gay marriage, does not pursue hate crimes, denies HIV drugs pic.twitter.com/xN0W0pp0q1

— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) 23 de octubre de 2016

PS: looking closely at the flags they do not ring quite like the rainbow flag. There may have been the identification flag of a given colectivo?. I am floating this in case some body has information. At any rate, these are poorly executed flags and Venezuelan gay people should not allow idiots use our symbols for such objectives as killing democracy.

Recall Election gone. So what?

I suppose I should write about the annulation of the Recall Election.  I had guessed long ago that it would not happen. The intensity of the dislike toward Maduro is so strong, even among chavistas, that the regime could not allow CNN document the huge lines that would have formed for three days this week.  They had no stomach for that, it was better to use an idiotic legal sophistry and send it all ad patres.

To concur with the prevalent head line this week end that Venezuela is officially a dictatorship is an hypocrisy. I have long said it so and I am actually upset at some people having trying to avoid the D world finally pouting it. As if annulling the Recall Election was more despicable than, say, having political prisoners, forcing those freed into exile, stealing the budget of the nation, and more,

I will just comment on how ridiculous the pretext to kill the Recall Election was. In short, a sub judge in Podunk decided that the CNE had not done its job to vet all the signatures for the 1% collection to start the process. The ridicule, of declaring themselves incompetent through their beloved electoral ministry, CNE, is something they cannot worry about anymore. The obsessive objective is to never leave office. All considerations be dammed.

That is all that there is to it.

Now what?

So? Can we all agree on the D word?

This is kind of a melancholy post. For years now I have been calling this a dictatorship. It took sometime to start seeing it expressed in the foreign press. And even as I type there are some in Venezuela or overseas (I am looking at you, Zapatero just for today's denialist) that still refuse to use the D word, expecting who knows what leniency from who knows where.


For me the D word applies since Chavez closed Radio Caracas in 2007. Or if you want a more material date you can use early 2013 when the constitutional coup of the moment allowed Maduro to become Chavez successor. And many other moments you may prefer. It really does not matter much, the dictatorial nature of the regime has been obvious from the start, from the very first social program of Chavez "Plan Bolivar 2000" that established the Venezuelan army as a discretionary manager of public money, and thus corruption.

I remember it all. Try me.

This year the dictatorship has been forced to become more frontal, more classical. Until this year the excuse that Venezuela was an autocratic regime and not a dictatorship was that the opposition did manage some electoral victories, that there were still an opposition paper here and there, albeit on trial. Etc. But all those were mere excuses. For the left there was no way that the beloved populist could have generated such a monstrously corrupt and inefficient system.  For the right it was that declaring Venezuela to be a dictatorship would mean taking action for which democrats seem to have lost the taste for, and for quite a while now. The last outrage and successful international take, if I remember well, was against Fujimori who in my book is not any worse than Chavez, and certainly less calamitous for the general welfare of the people. Honduras and Paraguay were mere side shows where the changes eventually prevailed because, well, these changes had a true legal foundation.

But never was Chavez to be sternly criticized until Argentina's Macri made it to office. And yet, with more bark than bite so far.

But now things have become unacceptable and Venezuela is preparing to be suspended from Mercosur in a little bit more than a month while the OAS may suddenly decided to make a concrete Democratic Chart application. Only Erdogan receives Maduro.

Since last December the regime has proceded to the following:
*Using the judicial power to block almost all actions from the National Assembly
*Rule through a state of emergency system bypassing any legal control
*Go through a wave of arrestations and creation of political prisoners without any legal supervision, with "evidence" planted directly by the people performing the arrest
*Sue the last two remaining national daily papers
*Block any control activity that the National Assembly has in the constitution
*Suspend any election, going as far as saying that elections were not an important right
*Dispose of national assets to find fresh cash
*Decree that all remaining private companies must sell 50% of their production to the government
*Etc...... including heavy intelligence insulting propaganda to pretend that all is fine and dandy in Venezuela

But the latest was in my opinion a fatal mistake for the regime. Maduro decided that the National Budget would be approved by decree law, with the support of course of the Judicial Constitutional Court. Now, I am not going to go into the unconstitutional and illegal ways in which the regime decides taxation and how it disposes of the funds through appointed folks.Trust me, the case is clear against the regime.

Since "No taxation without representation", and we know how that ended, it has been the rule in any and every democracy that the budget must be validated by a parliament. Even if that parliament is elected under fraud, but there must be a Parliament Act. Why is such a parliamentary act a requirement? Because it is the contract symbol that the state is the guarantor of the money lent or borrowed. Failure to do such an act means simply that the only responsible party is the guy in charge and that his mere death slipping at night in the bathtub is enough to question whether his successor has any obligation in fulfilling previous commitments.

In short, if you lend money to the Venezuelan government as of today, you have zero guarantee, LEGAL guarantee, that you will ever be paid back (that we are broke and unable to pay our debt is another story, but I digress). And considering that the guy in charge, Maduro, is an ass, with a shaky hold at best, I wonder who will bail the country out...

There are two implications here.

First, obviously, that taking over discretionary disposition of all the nation's income is the most naked act of dictatorship a regime can do. Never mind that in the same ceremony where the "budget" was signed Maduro already decided that he would not give money to any opposition district which by law he is forced to do, even if he has way to deliver less than the survival requirements of such districts. Thus now we are free from having to discuss over and over the dictatorial nature of the regime. All understand money, all understand that Maduro has officially privatized the budget. Even commies understand that.

The second consideration is that we are in big trouble. If the regime has resorted to such an extreme move it is because it feels that its end is near, that too many inside the regime are about to meet their legal destiny in some court. Since it has been proven amply that the regime could not care less about the welfare of the people (starvation cases, distressing lack of heath care for which I can personally vouch for as my SO has been left without chemotherapeutic without the possibility of legally buy it overseas) then it has been easy for them to take the final decision.

By privatizing the national budget the regime grabs directly whatever is left of the country resources to use them to support Cuba and the repression machinery needed to remain in office. That is right, there is not enough money for the rest, it will all be used to sustain the repression and ensuring a minimum of popular support to be able to recruit enough of those that will do that repression. I will note that the forced sale of 50% of production (that will probably not be paid on time, if at all, and after having lost all relevant value due to inflation) represents about what the regime can physically manage in that legal robbery handling, and what it needs roughly for its CLAP distribution system (who not surprisingly in the beggarly nature of chavismo support has allowed Maduro to get back to 30% in polls). Never mind that by forcing such sale the regime acknowledges that all the expropriations made under Chavez have only yielded a cemetery of once food producing businesses.

So there it is, the regime has played its last card.

The regime could not possibly care less about what the fate of the country and its people may be. There is no other card to be played, there is no expropriation that can be done which can satisfy the needs of the people, unless looting of homes is next. Expropriation of banks is useless when inflation is scheduled to be 4 digits next year. Nothing left for populism, not even borrowing as no one will be foolish enough to lend a penny to the the regime now. All has been wasted. There is only the little bit of food produced by the private sector and a worthless budget which can at least pay for the criminals that are needed for public order.

UPDATED Asking for help in getting medical assistance

UPDATE: this entry will remain on top for the time being and be updated as needed. Poltical ones below as they appear.
#1 update

Since many people have asked many questions I will answer the general ones here and individual ones as time allows. But my gratitude is all the same.

MONEY: I am not asking for money. Asking for money is a sign of failure for me. I know, it is stupid in a time where so many people ask for so many stupid things, but I try to preserve my pride as long as I can.
The time I would ask for money would be if I need to travel suddenly as good prices are not possible when you travel on short notice. I prefer to keep my savings for the care of my spouse. I will let you know when the time arrives if I cannot find a decent deal. And in that case I would limit myself to the extra expenses. Meanwhile I thank very much those who offered and you are on notice :-)

SOURCES of medicine: This is the toughest to resolve. There is one in particular we need and I do not want to put it publicly. The company that makes it in the US so far has not been forthcoming but there are still ways to reach them. Meanwhile we are trying it from France, the USA or Colombia as the countries where I can travel the easiest if I need to do so.
If by any chance you are a doctor in your country, or you have contacts to cancer treatments only delivered through hospital pharmacies, let me know. For more common medicines, the ones delivered through normal pharmacies through normal prescriptions, I can get them from France already.

-----------------------------------
I know this blog used to have personnel from the US foreign service reading it. These days it may not be the case but I need to try. Besides, other people reading may be able to help, even if not from  the US.

The situation  is that there is no more treatment available in Venezuela for the cancer of my life partner. And there will not be as long as Maduro remains president (or anyone sponsored by the regime). It is abundantly clear that the regime will not spend money on health care anymore besides aspirin and a couple of basic antibiotics. High cost medicine is simply not in the regime's agenda anymore. It has become a genocidal line at this point.

That would not be so bad if the regime allowed people to fend for themselves. But we are not allowed. Not only we have no access to USD, but even for those of us with some savings outside, it is difficult to ensure supplies unless we travel ourselves overseas. Under the pretext of fighting drug trafficking all couriers with pills are confiscated  (though surely those destined to higher up in the regime must manage some exceptions).

But there is an additional problem that was unexpected by us: many of the treatments for cancer are controlled medicines that are delivered only through hospitals, or extreme controls. I am finding that no matter what, manufacturers do not want anything to do with Venezuela, or demand that the patient be treated in the US. Which is nearly impossible without international health insurance that are, anyway, unavailable now in Venezuela.

Beyond the cost of the medicine we seek, which we could afford for a few months, the real problem is finding ways for it to be sold to us. Things we would need is support from the embassy in Caracas, be it from the US or other countries. Or perhaps support from an NGO in getting it. Or an adventurous MD who understands what we are going through and can maneuver the obtention of hospital controlled medications. My partner cannot travel but I can.

In other words anyone, or organization, that can vouch for the Venezuelan situation, that can report our case as a humanitarian situation can write privately to me to see how we can manage. No costs will be incurred to this generous soul as I have some savings that can tie us through for a few months. Though if some folks can help us purchase the medications, we would be immensely grateful since there are many more expenses we must tend to. But again, this is not a plea for cash, it is a plea for paperwork help in sorting the obstacles to obtain medications.

My address is danielinyaracuy(@)gmail(.)com , extra characters inserted for spam protection but you know how to remove them.

Since 2003 I have never asked for help, nor received any payment for this blog which in it's heyday was one of the main sources of information about the truth on Venezuela, at my personal al risk, by the way. Now I am begging readers to help me.

The happy-go-lucky dictatorial news of the day

So the regime of Nicolas Maduro has a problem: how to pass the 2017 national budget controlled by the opposition held National Assembly? Really, if we cannot loot in peace, what good is the revolution for!?


So very simple! Since there is a conflict between the National Assembly, NA, and the judicial power, TSJ, that this one annuls 99% of whatever the National Assembly does, we just will decree next year budget and that is that. After all, the budget is against the alleged "guera economica" whatever that means. Il suffisait d'y penser!

Maduro sent today a letter to the TSJ for "consultation". Guess what the result will be?

But the NA has a trump card, if it is willing to play it. Since the regime will require much extra additional debt, the NA just need to say that a budget passed without its approval does not engage the state in paying future debts contracted on such budget. Let's see who is going to lend Maduro money under such terms.

Meanwhile you can see yet another example on how dictatorships work. Books will be written.

A ¡NO! for reason

I have read so many idiots in the last three hours that I am forced to write about the Colombien plebiscite of today. Never mind that it will also have consequences for Venezuela.

When you go on vacation to Cartagena and think you
have been whitewashed by your travel agent

I heard "Brexit again! Trump next!"
I read the NYT being shocked
I see people wondering how could Colombians be so stupid, ungrateful, war loving folks!?

So let´s bring some of that hubris down, shall we?

First, the idiots doing amalgam. Today's vote in Colombian is not remotely close to the conditions of Brexit or Trump. Colombia is a, partially, warn torn country where everyone knows first or second hand the consequences of decades of a FARC guerrilla cum narko organization. Most people who voted in Colombia knew full well what they were voting for even if using the same facts led to different choices. With Brexit and Trump we have people that do not have enough problems in their real lives and are thus looking for new ones.


Second, the shock of the NYT and many other pundits lulled into quite a lot of confidence of a SI result in a country notoriously wrong in its polling folks. Does anyone remember how Antanas Mockus was a shoo in against Santos 6 years ago? But even if we assume that polls are better in Colombia than what some past mistakes may want you to think, the "shock" reflects also an inexcusable ignorance about what moves people in Colombia. Here in Venezuela the regime was careful not to embark in excess optimism, for once. The opposition, if anything, was shocked that the SI rode high in the polls. We all knew better. The cartoon on the side tells you what we thought of the Trojan dove.

So we come to the explanation of what happened.  I had decided not to write about the whole peace process much because, well, I have other priorities these days. But inspiration came tonight. Let's first go into the errors of Santos,

We can start with hubris, thinking that because he defeated the FARC as Uribe defense minister he was the hawk that could make peace credible. He got so enamored of this role that when things started becoming difficult he was unable to backtrack and forged ahead until today's crash.

Then came the choice of Havana and Castro's guidance to negotiate with its allies, the communist FARC. If at first there could be a case written for it, if anything to guarantee the discretion that the Cuban jail brought, it soon became clear that Santos was negotiating on the FARC turf, on the FARC mood swings, etc. But it got worse. As Venezuela started to unravel fast, that this one was a guarantee of the process became a minus. Colombians simply could not help but think as to whether an agreement with the FARC, made in Havana under the eyes of Venezuela's colonial masters, had a Venezuelan like future in store.

And there was Santos reelection problem. For many reasons having been elected the first time by right wing votes he got his narrow reelection courtesy of  weak left wing votes. That gave back some strength to a left that most thought Colombians had outgrown in its ideologies and appeal. Many did not appreciate.

I suppose that a mix of all that, plus an economy not performing too well in recent years pushed Santos to make concessions he should not have done. But the man wants a Nobel and a blessing by Pope Francis, so a special judicial court, and special political rights, and no jail terms were a low price for the "surrendering" FARC. In fact, I understand that some thought that the FARC got it easier than what the paramilitaries got in the much criticized deal of Uribe.

I for one always thought that the NO would prevail. I was surprised to hear that polls gave a significant lead to the SI,  but "Mockus" I thought! Then again I found it fishy that one week before the vote Santos had in Cartagena a massive signature ceremony with all dressed in white and coming from all around the world, including the UN secretary. Before the vote?

But I suppose I had heard too many stories of Colombians leaving their Venezuelan lives to restart in Colombia. I had heard too often the more and more condescending tone used by Colombians when asked about Venezuela on TV. And more. It was clear to me that a large chunk of Colombians did not want to risk a Venezuelan like future and they were going to fight such prospect.

My surprise, if you ask me, is that the SI went as high as it went. But I understand that the campaign conditions were grossly unfavorable for the NO side . I suppose that rubbing often with FARC and Chavistas has taught Santos a few lessons on how to "win" elections.........

I am not going to speculate on what happens to Colombia next. Already all parts have announced that in spite of all the electoral threats and lies, they are all going to work together, now, to improve the current agreement. Which at least leaves me the satisfaction of shutting down fast a lot of creeps saying that Colombians are warmongering idiots.

What is interesting for this blog readership is the effect on Venezuela.

First, Santos has been way too kind on Maduro even if he obviously dislikes the regime. But he needed Venezuela support to secure the deal, understanding full well that a chavista Venezuela would be a haven for renegade FARCs wishing for a return to action at some future time. Never mind the drug traffic now using Venezuela as its main base.  This is no more. Now that penalties, even if not severe, will be applied to FARC leadership crimes, a secure base is less crucial for Santos or the FARC (if a deal is eventually reached, of course). Thus I suspect that Santos, in front of a totally unpalatable Maduro, will be more strict with Venezuela's abuse, and when done on Colombians in particular. In addition, being tougher on Venezuela (which is, face it, an increasingly irrelevant country) will bring him dividends while negotiating with Uribe folks the rewriting of the peace agreement.

For Venezuela itself we are getting rather bad news, The safe havens inside Venezuela are now well set and if anything Castro and the FARC are after today going to insist further on their safety and intervention in Venezuelan affairs. Maybe a little too much for the military taste. Maybe a little bit too much to make the necessary changes to avoid general starvation. Maybe a little bit too much for foreign countries who were made a mockery of in Cartagena a few days ago and now may want to make sure it does not happen again, in Cartagena or Caracas.