Today Leopoldo Lopez had an OpEd piece published in the Washington Post. The piece may seem short on specifics for us here in Venezuela but we are not the audience. The audience is the US political class in its time of trial during primary season, to let them know that on inauguration day the worst problem in the Western Hemisphere awaiting them will be the humanitarian crisis that is starting in Venezuela this past few weeks. The silence of the US has helped a lot Venezuela become a failed state as Lopez letter implies.
Whether Bernie Sanders will burnish his break from ideologies credentials by condemning the Venezuelan regime or Trump will develop an interest about Venezuela besides the beauty pageants remains to be seen. I'd rather use that editorial to muse on the evil that surrounds the people of Venezuela.
Let's start with Leopoldo Lopez in jail now for two years and condemned for a trial that we now know was based on forged evidence. He is not the lone political prisoner though now he is the best known, a cause in himself. The new National Assembly is trying to pass an amnesty law that is targeted at freeing these people and you should hear the vituperation from the regime's as to that law, announcing without a shade of self doubt, no beam in their eyes, that it would promote crime in Venezuela.
But we could pass on that, perhaps, on politically motivated vindictive. The problem is that evil sneaks everywhere in the regime. I suppose it all started with the Tascon list of 2003 that split Venezuela in two type of citizens, those against Chavez having from now on a second class status. That list built by killing the vote secrecy is still in use today.
We can remember the multiple violent expropriations, the worse ones in the country side where often people were not even allowed to take their personal belongings. By then the totalitarian nature of the regime's soul could not be hidden anymore.
Then crime went up and up, and jail roles went down and down until the regime allied itself with the jail gangs who operate from the "safety" of the jail for all sorts of racket.
Should I even bother mentioning Venezuela becoming a narco-military regime or is that just a form of business?
But the worst evil was saved for the end, when all of us, chavista voters or staunch opposition alike must suffer lack of food and lack of medicine and the concurrent crime wave. While the fat high ranking of the regime in all selfishness prove everyday their ignorance of the situation, it is made worse by their denial, and even worse, that they do not care about it. The question is simple and should be asked by anyone; if the regime actually cared about the plight of Venezuelans, would we be in the dire straits we are today? If you have an ounce of integrity you know what the answer is.
Today president Maduro launched in great fanfare a new plan of urban agriculture that is supposed to provide within 100 days 20% of the food intake of the 8 major cities of Venezuela. That this plan is launched at a time of major water shortages in Venezuela cities has not been detected by Maduro and his entourage, Or at least they did not care about it. Failure is certain, the more so in a country that does not like much veggies, and less to work for them. Pretending, in the XXI century, to present an agricultural construct that is a mere throwback to a primitive XIX century in Venezuela when actually privileged people who could lived off their backyard garden is an insult to our intelligence. Now becoming a failed state is an achievement.
To add insult to injury, that new wonder does give birth to a new bureaucracy: National System for Urban and Semi-urban Agriculture that will include a Venezuelan Corporation for Urban and Semi-urban Agriculture. Which gives a new meaning about selling the Tiger hide before killing it....
The ultimate stage of evil is when the torturer starts making fun of its victim. We have reached that stage.
Sunday, 28 February 2016
Tuesday, 23 February 2016
Not amused
I am watching and reading some of the news on Venezuela, slightly bemused. Apparently they are so unbelievable for the civilized world that one would be forgiven to think that Venezuela: survivor is just your latest reality show fade, somewhere between the Kardashians for its bad taste and Chopped for its cut throat run for food. My favorite of the day comes from a segment from yesterday nightly news (the big one at France 2) which starts with a food line. Yet readers of this blog have seen much more impressive lines filmed by yours truly, in this blog or Instagram.
But it is getting serious and CÑN tonight had a title with "no bread in Venezuela".
It is true and it is not amusing.
I eat little bread for diet reasons, limiting myself to full fiber sliced super market loaves. But the SO wanted some bakery bread. I went to 4. I did not find any. The last one I found some "pan dulce" and that was that, good enough to eat with a cup of coffee, if you have it. They also told me that they bake bread only twice a day now, for early breakfast and for diner when people come back from work. Depending on the bakery they give one or two "canillas" (sort of our local baguette). And that within 15 minutes it is usually all gone.
But this is not the only item missing.
Since my return early February things have been getting worse, almost on a daily basis. Supermarket shelves are getting emptier, lines are less frequent because nothing arrives, and when something arrives lines get truly huge in no time. If bakery bread is missing sliced bread is down at the grocery store and my favorite brand has now a weird taste. I am not complaining, I can still switch to another brand. For how long?
Bottled water seems to be gone for good.
Choice is also gone. Deli is getting to a "it is that or nothing level". Now grocery stores are not even trying to hide the empty spaces with junk.
On the medical front things are worse, if possible. Today I learned of the arrival of some generics from a medicine for triglycerides that I had to stop taking. I arrived in time at my local "LOCATEL". I tried to get also a small bottle of rubbing alcohol. To my surprise there is none. The lone brand on the market has stopped delivering. No more rubbing alcohol for your disinfection needs!
Since my SO, and the mother in law, are physically unable to stand in line for anything for more than half an hour, we must all share the burden. I cannot so I am resorting more and more to black market. I put on Instagram the latest of my loot on toilet paper, two heavy bags at 8 times the normal cost (and I learned that actually I got it for cheap!). But I also got 12 kilos of pasta that way, albeit at only twice the normal cost. Currently I am waiting for milk (it will be twice) and rice (at least thrice). But I have also been told not to hope much for that arrival. Corn flour is too political so my black market guy does not dare to go there. For that I will need to go to "buhoneros" in Petare at 4 times the cost, if not more, under the eyes of the Nazional Guard.
There is no black market for medicine because there is none. Well, almost no black market. One of my siblings got some of his heart medicine from some one bringing it form the US and cashing it in USD!!!!!!! Well, in all fairness apparently there had been some mistake so the guy sold what he did not need through contacts, but in dollars, with overhead anyway. I am expecting some form of black market for some medicines to start organizing.
At this point the neglect of the regime can only be qualified as of criminal, worthy of large scale human right violations and The Hague court. It is as such because the regime refuses to let any opening for anything, aware as they are that if they relinquish control over any item they risk to see everything tumble down fast. So if "el pueblo" suffers a secret Zika epidemic because there is no fumigation, there is no insect repellent, there is not even material to do mosquito netting, well too bad. I also read that HIV may be getting out of control since there has been a lack of protection for over a year, and lack of testing. This in addition to malaria and tuberculosis that made a come back BEFORE Chavez died.
Make no mistake: it is Chavez electorate that is suffering the most. And it is the one that lately seems to start heating up.
So you will excuse me if articles about gas hike in Venezuela or lack of tourists, even though it is the cheapest destination in the Western hemisphere, leave me cold.
I, for one, could not care less if my car gasoline refill is now 350 instead of 5.
In fact I do not give a shit about gas price.
I have real problems elsewhere. Let foreign journos that are into spectator sports take care of that.
But it is getting serious and CÑN tonight had a title with "no bread in Venezuela".
It is true and it is not amusing.
I eat little bread for diet reasons, limiting myself to full fiber sliced super market loaves. But the SO wanted some bakery bread. I went to 4. I did not find any. The last one I found some "pan dulce" and that was that, good enough to eat with a cup of coffee, if you have it. They also told me that they bake bread only twice a day now, for early breakfast and for diner when people come back from work. Depending on the bakery they give one or two "canillas" (sort of our local baguette). And that within 15 minutes it is usually all gone.
But this is not the only item missing.
Since my return early February things have been getting worse, almost on a daily basis. Supermarket shelves are getting emptier, lines are less frequent because nothing arrives, and when something arrives lines get truly huge in no time. If bakery bread is missing sliced bread is down at the grocery store and my favorite brand has now a weird taste. I am not complaining, I can still switch to another brand. For how long?
Bottled water seems to be gone for good.
Choice is also gone. Deli is getting to a "it is that or nothing level". Now grocery stores are not even trying to hide the empty spaces with junk.
On the medical front things are worse, if possible. Today I learned of the arrival of some generics from a medicine for triglycerides that I had to stop taking. I arrived in time at my local "LOCATEL". I tried to get also a small bottle of rubbing alcohol. To my surprise there is none. The lone brand on the market has stopped delivering. No more rubbing alcohol for your disinfection needs!
Since my SO, and the mother in law, are physically unable to stand in line for anything for more than half an hour, we must all share the burden. I cannot so I am resorting more and more to black market. I put on Instagram the latest of my loot on toilet paper, two heavy bags at 8 times the normal cost (and I learned that actually I got it for cheap!). But I also got 12 kilos of pasta that way, albeit at only twice the normal cost. Currently I am waiting for milk (it will be twice) and rice (at least thrice). But I have also been told not to hope much for that arrival. Corn flour is too political so my black market guy does not dare to go there. For that I will need to go to "buhoneros" in Petare at 4 times the cost, if not more, under the eyes of the Nazional Guard.
There is no black market for medicine because there is none. Well, almost no black market. One of my siblings got some of his heart medicine from some one bringing it form the US and cashing it in USD!!!!!!! Well, in all fairness apparently there had been some mistake so the guy sold what he did not need through contacts, but in dollars, with overhead anyway. I am expecting some form of black market for some medicines to start organizing.
At this point the neglect of the regime can only be qualified as of criminal, worthy of large scale human right violations and The Hague court. It is as such because the regime refuses to let any opening for anything, aware as they are that if they relinquish control over any item they risk to see everything tumble down fast. So if "el pueblo" suffers a secret Zika epidemic because there is no fumigation, there is no insect repellent, there is not even material to do mosquito netting, well too bad. I also read that HIV may be getting out of control since there has been a lack of protection for over a year, and lack of testing. This in addition to malaria and tuberculosis that made a come back BEFORE Chavez died.
Make no mistake: it is Chavez electorate that is suffering the most. And it is the one that lately seems to start heating up.
So you will excuse me if articles about gas hike in Venezuela or lack of tourists, even though it is the cheapest destination in the Western hemisphere, leave me cold.
I, for one, could not care less if my car gasoline refill is now 350 instead of 5.
In fact I do not give a shit about gas price.
I have real problems elsewhere. Let foreign journos that are into spectator sports take care of that.
Thursday, 18 February 2016
Musings on the pharmaceutical genocidal debacle
Thinking about what I wrote last night, giving Maduro a D-. I realized that I was too generous, that my Scientific objectivity took above my best judgement. These measures mean nothing, at best it is a way for him to gain a few more weeks until he finds a way to save his ass. Nothing basic will change in the system. That is all.
A brutal slap drove that point a couple of hours ago. In yet another cadena Maduro sat in front of him representatives of the pharmaceutical sector to "restart" production which apparently to him has unaccountably stopped. Basically he rediscovered the wheel and medicines will churned soon for the great contentment of the people. Unfortunately I wok in the sector and things are not as rosy as he would like el pueblo to believe.
Well, a note first: I do not work in the human medical sector but part of my activities are related to animal husbandry medications and the story is exactly the same. There we see much lower yields because animals cannot be treated adequately. And thus less protein for el pueblo.
I am not going to discuss how medicine is paid or costs in Venezuela: every country has its own very complex system. What I am going to address is how come there is today a criminal, yes, criminal, shortages of medicine in Venezuela.
Before Chavez Venezuela did not produce active principles of a large majority of most medicines. Like most countries in the world, it had a wide representation of diverse major pharmaceuticals companies that would or would not produce on site a given principle, pill it or bottle it for Venezuela and export it to neighboring countries. And vice versa. There were also several local pharmaceutical that would get licenses to manufacture all sorts of generics with raw material imported from wherever. In short, a wide variety of pharmaceuticals were available and we were the envy of Latin America. The only problem was cost. Admittedly a significant one but not an insoluble one if a serious government had set its mind to make public hospitals work efficiently and dispense directly medicine to the neediest sectors of the population. And yet costs were not astronomical and at least the middle class managed quite well.
When chavismo set its currency exchange controls, its importations barriers, its refusal to accept that foreign companies recover their investments, the whole system unraveled. Add to this sub par quality imports from Cuba to satisfy Barrio Adentro Mision and other unfair competition and ridiculous price controls and you get the picture.
The mystery is not that pharmacy shelves are empty today, the mystery is how come they have not been empty 2 years ago already.
What happened took place in different phases, First, major foreign laboratories closed one by one, moving their production facilities to Colombia or elsewhere. Quite often the products they manufactured here disappeared, not even coming back imported from the new place. Simply, they left the country, having enough of its problems. Then, as currency crunch happened, suppliers of raw material became more and more reluctant to provide what the local generics needed to make their pills, packagings and the like. The debt ballooned and suppliers simply stopped sending stuff. Hence the current situation. As for what could not be assembled here, well, they stopped coming even before generics stopped production.
The criminal role of the regime CANNOT be understated: the medical emergency has already been denounced since early last year, people have died, and keep falling and we had to wait until today to finally hear about a new plan that will not resolve anything. At best, the regime announced that it will decide which deseases you can survive and which, well, will be too bad for you if you get them.
The regime guilt comes from its stubborn refusal to create a free exchange rate where people could at least import medicine at international cost. But no, we all have to die the same, and only the very reach, those with hefty accounts over seas can bring whatever they need to bring in. This is XXI century socialism for you.
What is terrible here is that the solution is simple and fast, at least to restock the shelves of the basics. Remove price controls. Free the currency for import of raw material, packaging needs, etc. In three months top you will get again 90% of the generics produced 2 years ago. The production lines exist, the people to make them are trained. You do not even need to pay back debt to suppliers yet, you can wait a little bit longer for that and start paying it AFTER production restarts. They will understand (I know what I am talking about, direct experience with providers). Many of the raw materials can actually be brought in airborne as they are needed in small amounts. The rest can come in a couple of dozen containers just to restart the basics like acetaminophen for dengue and zika or high blood pressure drugs.
That it will be too expensive? What is worse: cheap inexistant pills or expensive available pills? For the poor the regime just needs to organize large scale discounted purchases for public hospitals and provide the prescription for free for those that go there for treatment. Or charge them a nominal fee. Corruption is easily control: one package for hospitals and one for pharmacies so you will know if what you buy has been subtracted from an hospital.
It is really quite simple and the dollars for that exist. You just need to stop the corruption around it.
But since the regime is unwilling to do that, then I have the regret to insist on that: the regime is guilty of genocidal practices against the Venezuelan people for deliberately depriving it from on time access to necessary medication.
Period.
A brutal slap drove that point a couple of hours ago. In yet another cadena Maduro sat in front of him representatives of the pharmaceutical sector to "restart" production which apparently to him has unaccountably stopped. Basically he rediscovered the wheel and medicines will churned soon for the great contentment of the people. Unfortunately I wok in the sector and things are not as rosy as he would like el pueblo to believe.
Well, a note first: I do not work in the human medical sector but part of my activities are related to animal husbandry medications and the story is exactly the same. There we see much lower yields because animals cannot be treated adequately. And thus less protein for el pueblo.
I am not going to discuss how medicine is paid or costs in Venezuela: every country has its own very complex system. What I am going to address is how come there is today a criminal, yes, criminal, shortages of medicine in Venezuela.
Before Chavez Venezuela did not produce active principles of a large majority of most medicines. Like most countries in the world, it had a wide representation of diverse major pharmaceuticals companies that would or would not produce on site a given principle, pill it or bottle it for Venezuela and export it to neighboring countries. And vice versa. There were also several local pharmaceutical that would get licenses to manufacture all sorts of generics with raw material imported from wherever. In short, a wide variety of pharmaceuticals were available and we were the envy of Latin America. The only problem was cost. Admittedly a significant one but not an insoluble one if a serious government had set its mind to make public hospitals work efficiently and dispense directly medicine to the neediest sectors of the population. And yet costs were not astronomical and at least the middle class managed quite well.
When chavismo set its currency exchange controls, its importations barriers, its refusal to accept that foreign companies recover their investments, the whole system unraveled. Add to this sub par quality imports from Cuba to satisfy Barrio Adentro Mision and other unfair competition and ridiculous price controls and you get the picture.
The mystery is not that pharmacy shelves are empty today, the mystery is how come they have not been empty 2 years ago already.
What happened took place in different phases, First, major foreign laboratories closed one by one, moving their production facilities to Colombia or elsewhere. Quite often the products they manufactured here disappeared, not even coming back imported from the new place. Simply, they left the country, having enough of its problems. Then, as currency crunch happened, suppliers of raw material became more and more reluctant to provide what the local generics needed to make their pills, packagings and the like. The debt ballooned and suppliers simply stopped sending stuff. Hence the current situation. As for what could not be assembled here, well, they stopped coming even before generics stopped production.
The criminal role of the regime CANNOT be understated: the medical emergency has already been denounced since early last year, people have died, and keep falling and we had to wait until today to finally hear about a new plan that will not resolve anything. At best, the regime announced that it will decide which deseases you can survive and which, well, will be too bad for you if you get them.
The regime guilt comes from its stubborn refusal to create a free exchange rate where people could at least import medicine at international cost. But no, we all have to die the same, and only the very reach, those with hefty accounts over seas can bring whatever they need to bring in. This is XXI century socialism for you.
What is terrible here is that the solution is simple and fast, at least to restock the shelves of the basics. Remove price controls. Free the currency for import of raw material, packaging needs, etc. In three months top you will get again 90% of the generics produced 2 years ago. The production lines exist, the people to make them are trained. You do not even need to pay back debt to suppliers yet, you can wait a little bit longer for that and start paying it AFTER production restarts. They will understand (I know what I am talking about, direct experience with providers). Many of the raw materials can actually be brought in airborne as they are needed in small amounts. The rest can come in a couple of dozen containers just to restart the basics like acetaminophen for dengue and zika or high blood pressure drugs.
That it will be too expensive? What is worse: cheap inexistant pills or expensive available pills? For the poor the regime just needs to organize large scale discounted purchases for public hospitals and provide the prescription for free for those that go there for treatment. Or charge them a nominal fee. Corruption is easily control: one package for hospitals and one for pharmacies so you will know if what you buy has been subtracted from an hospital.
It is really quite simple and the dollars for that exist. You just need to stop the corruption around it.
But since the regime is unwilling to do that, then I have the regret to insist on that: the regime is guilty of genocidal practices against the Venezuelan people for deliberately depriving it from on time access to necessary medication.
Period.
Wednesday, 17 February 2016
Maduro's economic measures get a D- ; but the objective is elsewhere
Finally, after nearly three years in office, Nicolas Maduro decided (or was it decided for him?) to take some economic measures. Too little, too late. He does not get an F because he dares to increase the price of gas. I suppose that gives him a C for effort, and the rest is F. Before I get into the details it is noteworthy that the measures are announced barely hours after he fired his economic minister (Salas) and failed to put in jail Polar's CEO Mendoza and expropriate the group as radicals wanted. Combine that with the creation of a new monster controlled by the military, CAMIMPEG, and you know that the military are behind the whole thing (but more on that in a future post).
Thus, even if I have other things in my mind these days I need to summarize what happened today to give you guys the real meaning of the whole thing. In no particular order.
Gas price increase. C for effort. F for method. D- for benefits.
In Venezuela we have nearly free gas in two grades. Now we will have the same two categories, not quite free, but with a 5 fold difference in price. Consequence number 1 expect shortages of the lowest grade immediately. Consequence number two, people are stupid enough that they rushed to gas station tonight to fill up with free gas to avoid paying almost free gas in a couple of days so there may not be gas this week end in Caracas. But if people were smart and knew how to count and manage, surely chavismo would be by now a long forgotten bad memory.
Will it help? No. We still have the cheapest gas in the world (at the black market rate which is the one that matters). It is quite possible that gas will still be sold below production cost. And smuggling of gas will continue to be a brisk business at the borders as long as it is less than a quarter the price of gas in Colombia or Brazil or T&T. And when your tip to a valet parking attendant is already higher than what it will take you to fill your tank of gas at the new price, then there is no incentive to save on gas by driving less.
Devaluation of currency. D for effort. D+ for simplification. F for benefits.
We had three exchange rates (Cencoex, Sicad and Simadi) plus the black market. Now Sicad disappears (ir was invisible anyway) and we are left with a new Cencoex that goes down from 6.3 to 10, or a 37% depreciation against the USD. Simadi which was kept through mysterious ways at 200 for one USD will start to float. How? No details but if it is not in a transparent way and if the regime does not supply a steady, even if small, supply of dollars the black market rate of 1000 to a USD will keep going up.
We can expect that the floating new Simadi, or whatever the name will be, to be a tad more supplied because apparently we may be getting travel money through its value (right now we are getting nothing). But otherwise I see no improvement on economic conditions. The Cencoex rate should have gone down, in my opinion, to at least 50 to make any difference. After all with an inflation somewhere between 200 and 300% that depreciation hike of 87% would have been already factored in. But the real problem here is that the same people who had access to the 6,3 rate are the ones that will retain access at 10, and will resell it on the black market through "arbitration". This is where the big business of the military and bolibourgeoisie resides and it remains untouched. In other words the economic system of privileges remains untouched and thus the crisis will remain as it is.
Minimum wage increase. F. Period
With a minimum wage increase of 20% and a current inflation of at the very least 200%, you do the math.
New system for price control and food distribution. D for simplification. D- for benefits.
Too early to pass a definitive judgment here. Anything that wants to perpetuate price control is doomed from the start. However the way things are announced it would seem that the regime is willing to let a significant portion of the economy out of price control, keeping a "100" list of essentials only which will be sold/controlled at their true production costs, whatever that may mean. The other possible good news is that the complex system of food fairs, MERCAL, PDVAL and whatever will be fused in, well, basically food fairs in critical areas. Apparently too much corruption and black market.... Gee... They found out.....
Electronic ration card. C for practicality. D- for possible corruption. F for ethics and admission of economic failure.
So the regime revived an old Rosales proposal of 2006, the "tarjeta mi negra" which was intended to give a pre loaded credit card to the poor so they could use it for only some specific services. Now it is a card from the Banco Venezuela, with chip and all, that will be given to social Mision holders. And probably will be used first as a ration card... But in front of the black market crisis and the huge lines that the poor suffer the most and the impossibility that the country produces enough in the near future I suppose that we should look at it as the lesser evil. The real problem here is through which political hoops will people have to jump to get it............
Conclusion. D- (and I am generous)
I think that Maduro was forced into a plan that he did not want. His first intention (and Cabello probably) was to make a last stand, to take down Polar and see what happened (suffer a coup and leave as martyrs of the revolution?). The military knowing full well the unrest that massive shortages will result from Polar demise put a stop to it and had Salas fired (the point man of the PODEMOS wacko school from Spain). After all they would be blamed for the repression.
The creation of CAMIMPEG was immediately seen by all observers, and yours truly, as a way to hide assets from a likely bankruptcy of the state oil company PDVSA (amen of creating a gigantic military cartel, Sino-Korean style circa early years of their capitalism, or what has been done in Cuba already for its army). Expect more creations like that to shield whatever assets the regime can hide, and to bolster the army fortunes.
What happened today was the beginning of the exit of Maduro. The measures taken are woefully inadequate if they are not accompanied by less controls, some fiscal restraint, a loosening of labor market, quick investment in basic health care so workers can show up for work, etc. Yet they are anti chavista in nature, in particular the hike in gas price that Chavez promised that it would never happen while he was president (perhaps the only promise he ever kept, to our great disgrace). This is the unavoidable turn in economic policies and Maduro cannot take the helm. He pronounced them but he cannot run them, he will sabotage them if he must. So he is planing to leave (or some devious scheme to backtrack at some point, it is possible).
However the real benefit here is that the regime can now go to the IMF with part of its homework done and claim that the austerity measures were taken out of its own seriousness and not because they were imposed. Appearance of independence is preserved. Utter hypocrisy but in the end who cares if it helps us avoid starvation. Too bad for them that what the IMF (or any lender) really wants is fiscal restraint and realistic exchange rate.
Thus, even if I have other things in my mind these days I need to summarize what happened today to give you guys the real meaning of the whole thing. In no particular order.
Gas price increase. C for effort. F for method. D- for benefits.
In Venezuela we have nearly free gas in two grades. Now we will have the same two categories, not quite free, but with a 5 fold difference in price. Consequence number 1 expect shortages of the lowest grade immediately. Consequence number two, people are stupid enough that they rushed to gas station tonight to fill up with free gas to avoid paying almost free gas in a couple of days so there may not be gas this week end in Caracas. But if people were smart and knew how to count and manage, surely chavismo would be by now a long forgotten bad memory.
Will it help? No. We still have the cheapest gas in the world (at the black market rate which is the one that matters). It is quite possible that gas will still be sold below production cost. And smuggling of gas will continue to be a brisk business at the borders as long as it is less than a quarter the price of gas in Colombia or Brazil or T&T. And when your tip to a valet parking attendant is already higher than what it will take you to fill your tank of gas at the new price, then there is no incentive to save on gas by driving less.
Devaluation of currency. D for effort. D+ for simplification. F for benefits.
We had three exchange rates (Cencoex, Sicad and Simadi) plus the black market. Now Sicad disappears (ir was invisible anyway) and we are left with a new Cencoex that goes down from 6.3 to 10, or a 37% depreciation against the USD. Simadi which was kept through mysterious ways at 200 for one USD will start to float. How? No details but if it is not in a transparent way and if the regime does not supply a steady, even if small, supply of dollars the black market rate of 1000 to a USD will keep going up.
We can expect that the floating new Simadi, or whatever the name will be, to be a tad more supplied because apparently we may be getting travel money through its value (right now we are getting nothing). But otherwise I see no improvement on economic conditions. The Cencoex rate should have gone down, in my opinion, to at least 50 to make any difference. After all with an inflation somewhere between 200 and 300% that depreciation hike of 87% would have been already factored in. But the real problem here is that the same people who had access to the 6,3 rate are the ones that will retain access at 10, and will resell it on the black market through "arbitration". This is where the big business of the military and bolibourgeoisie resides and it remains untouched. In other words the economic system of privileges remains untouched and thus the crisis will remain as it is.
Minimum wage increase. F. Period
With a minimum wage increase of 20% and a current inflation of at the very least 200%, you do the math.
New system for price control and food distribution. D for simplification. D- for benefits.
Too early to pass a definitive judgment here. Anything that wants to perpetuate price control is doomed from the start. However the way things are announced it would seem that the regime is willing to let a significant portion of the economy out of price control, keeping a "100" list of essentials only which will be sold/controlled at their true production costs, whatever that may mean. The other possible good news is that the complex system of food fairs, MERCAL, PDVAL and whatever will be fused in, well, basically food fairs in critical areas. Apparently too much corruption and black market.... Gee... They found out.....
Electronic ration card. C for practicality. D- for possible corruption. F for ethics and admission of economic failure.
So the regime revived an old Rosales proposal of 2006, the "tarjeta mi negra" which was intended to give a pre loaded credit card to the poor so they could use it for only some specific services. Now it is a card from the Banco Venezuela, with chip and all, that will be given to social Mision holders. And probably will be used first as a ration card... But in front of the black market crisis and the huge lines that the poor suffer the most and the impossibility that the country produces enough in the near future I suppose that we should look at it as the lesser evil. The real problem here is through which political hoops will people have to jump to get it............
Conclusion. D- (and I am generous)
I think that Maduro was forced into a plan that he did not want. His first intention (and Cabello probably) was to make a last stand, to take down Polar and see what happened (suffer a coup and leave as martyrs of the revolution?). The military knowing full well the unrest that massive shortages will result from Polar demise put a stop to it and had Salas fired (the point man of the PODEMOS wacko school from Spain). After all they would be blamed for the repression.
The creation of CAMIMPEG was immediately seen by all observers, and yours truly, as a way to hide assets from a likely bankruptcy of the state oil company PDVSA (amen of creating a gigantic military cartel, Sino-Korean style circa early years of their capitalism, or what has been done in Cuba already for its army). Expect more creations like that to shield whatever assets the regime can hide, and to bolster the army fortunes.
What happened today was the beginning of the exit of Maduro. The measures taken are woefully inadequate if they are not accompanied by less controls, some fiscal restraint, a loosening of labor market, quick investment in basic health care so workers can show up for work, etc. Yet they are anti chavista in nature, in particular the hike in gas price that Chavez promised that it would never happen while he was president (perhaps the only promise he ever kept, to our great disgrace). This is the unavoidable turn in economic policies and Maduro cannot take the helm. He pronounced them but he cannot run them, he will sabotage them if he must. So he is planing to leave (or some devious scheme to backtrack at some point, it is possible).
However the real benefit here is that the regime can now go to the IMF with part of its homework done and claim that the austerity measures were taken out of its own seriousness and not because they were imposed. Appearance of independence is preserved. Utter hypocrisy but in the end who cares if it helps us avoid starvation. Too bad for them that what the IMF (or any lender) really wants is fiscal restraint and realistic exchange rate.
Saturday, 13 February 2016
Electricity shortage horrors
Before mentioning that I was victim last Friday I am going to mention briefly the last electricity horror shortage. A few years ago, on account of El Niño, Chavez started an ambitious, no expense spared, plan to generate enough thermal electric energy to save us from the vagaries of the Caroni river from which, if well managed, we could get more than three quarters of our electricity. He went on one of his many idiocies implying that too many dams would dry down the "poor" river as an excuse for all the immense delays on the magnificent planning left by previous governments.
The only result of all of this was a stupendous corruption that created the fortunes of people like Derwick and associates and left us today, believe it or not, with an even worse crisis than 5 years ago, and this starting with LESS industrial product than we had then. Read anything from Alek Boyd to convince yourself.
Last Friday it was quimo for my S.O. and the treatment place is in a specialty clinic that occupies a whole story of a building associated with a commercial center. The regime has decided that malls and the like would have mandatory rationing of electricity and would have to close down AC, elevators, escalators and even water pumps for a few hours a day, including during lunch breaks. Just like that.
Unfortunately for us the clinic is attached to a mall and is treated as such, regardless.
We should have realized it would be different when our customary time slot was advanced to 11 AM. When we arrived we were told that any food should be purchased by 12:30 as the elevators would be shut down until 3 PM. Any physiological necessity should also be taken care off by that time because within minutes the pipes would empty and there would be no more running water until sometime after 3 PM. In a medical facility.
Even though we were late due to frantic traffic, which I guess in retrospective was probably due to people trying to get things done before noon, we managed to get the S.O. hooked up before 11:30 and all the sundries and my sushi set in place by noon so I could eat it watching the drip... Note; I always get sushi because I think that for the other patients it is the least offensive food, visually and olfactory. After all, some of us need to last for several hours.
They had to open the windows but the day not being warm we could manage. Otherwise everything else went normally except for the lack of water. We were done a little bit past 2. They had an elevator called. At least one elevator is available on demand, manually operated for the clinic only. Everybody else on foot. Important as, even if valid, most patients are always somewhat shaken after quimio, which was our case. We reached ground floor but surprise, there is no elevator to go underground to the car. And there was no way the SO could walk down in the dark all that distance... After some discussion I finally left him at one fo the exits, going down only one of the escalators (more difficult than stairs I have you know for a sick person).
The parking was closed. All in the dark except for some of the emergency lights. You discover that the lack of replacement batteries have made parking lots a major hazard in Venezuela in case of fire: there is simply no way to find the exit!!!!!!! At least they disposed several attendants with flashlights but in case of fire? Of course I was in the last basement. An attendant offered to accompany me but there was enough twilight and I am used to that parking enough that I declined. Unfortunately the last ground had no light. None except for a very distant corner tiny energy light dimming fast. It was not even enough to see my hand! What to do?
With one foot I slowly found what I knew to be the last step. Then, on flat ground, since I knew my car was not too far I hoped for the alarm signal to reach the car. It did and lit up inside the car. I could go slowly to my car but the light was not enough to show any obstacle (and I nearly was done in by one). Once inside I could drive with my head lights in full and make my way to the toll booth. But the problem came next: the exit I planned to take to pick up my S.O. was closed until 3! And down there was no cell phone signal. And I was not going to have him walk all across the mall to pick him up. Followed a heated argument with an attendant.
Eventually he let me pass though the blocked way letting me know that the electric gate above may not work until 3. But that was not the worst. He explained that the whole ordeal was not a lack of planning from them, that they had no say in what to close down. It was the government itself that came on the first day and started to bring down the breakers themselves!
That is, they did not come and say "listen guys, you are consuming 100 a day. You have to bring that down to 50 a day. You have a week to manage that. Your problem".
They just came the fascist way, turned down whatever they wanted to turn down and that was that. I think that it is in small examples like that, examples that speak by themselves, that you find the real reasons why these people must be expelled from office.
I wonder how one elevator managed to escape altogether. Maybe attendants hid that particular breaker? Maybe one official has a relative on quimo there?
The only result of all of this was a stupendous corruption that created the fortunes of people like Derwick and associates and left us today, believe it or not, with an even worse crisis than 5 years ago, and this starting with LESS industrial product than we had then. Read anything from Alek Boyd to convince yourself.
Last Friday it was quimo for my S.O. and the treatment place is in a specialty clinic that occupies a whole story of a building associated with a commercial center. The regime has decided that malls and the like would have mandatory rationing of electricity and would have to close down AC, elevators, escalators and even water pumps for a few hours a day, including during lunch breaks. Just like that.
Unfortunately for us the clinic is attached to a mall and is treated as such, regardless.
We should have realized it would be different when our customary time slot was advanced to 11 AM. When we arrived we were told that any food should be purchased by 12:30 as the elevators would be shut down until 3 PM. Any physiological necessity should also be taken care off by that time because within minutes the pipes would empty and there would be no more running water until sometime after 3 PM. In a medical facility.
Even though we were late due to frantic traffic, which I guess in retrospective was probably due to people trying to get things done before noon, we managed to get the S.O. hooked up before 11:30 and all the sundries and my sushi set in place by noon so I could eat it watching the drip... Note; I always get sushi because I think that for the other patients it is the least offensive food, visually and olfactory. After all, some of us need to last for several hours.
They had to open the windows but the day not being warm we could manage. Otherwise everything else went normally except for the lack of water. We were done a little bit past 2. They had an elevator called. At least one elevator is available on demand, manually operated for the clinic only. Everybody else on foot. Important as, even if valid, most patients are always somewhat shaken after quimio, which was our case. We reached ground floor but surprise, there is no elevator to go underground to the car. And there was no way the SO could walk down in the dark all that distance... After some discussion I finally left him at one fo the exits, going down only one of the escalators (more difficult than stairs I have you know for a sick person).
The parking was closed. All in the dark except for some of the emergency lights. You discover that the lack of replacement batteries have made parking lots a major hazard in Venezuela in case of fire: there is simply no way to find the exit!!!!!!! At least they disposed several attendants with flashlights but in case of fire? Of course I was in the last basement. An attendant offered to accompany me but there was enough twilight and I am used to that parking enough that I declined. Unfortunately the last ground had no light. None except for a very distant corner tiny energy light dimming fast. It was not even enough to see my hand! What to do?
With one foot I slowly found what I knew to be the last step. Then, on flat ground, since I knew my car was not too far I hoped for the alarm signal to reach the car. It did and lit up inside the car. I could go slowly to my car but the light was not enough to show any obstacle (and I nearly was done in by one). Once inside I could drive with my head lights in full and make my way to the toll booth. But the problem came next: the exit I planned to take to pick up my S.O. was closed until 3! And down there was no cell phone signal. And I was not going to have him walk all across the mall to pick him up. Followed a heated argument with an attendant.
Eventually he let me pass though the blocked way letting me know that the electric gate above may not work until 3. But that was not the worst. He explained that the whole ordeal was not a lack of planning from them, that they had no say in what to close down. It was the government itself that came on the first day and started to bring down the breakers themselves!
That is, they did not come and say "listen guys, you are consuming 100 a day. You have to bring that down to 50 a day. You have a week to manage that. Your problem".
They just came the fascist way, turned down whatever they wanted to turn down and that was that. I think that it is in small examples like that, examples that speak by themselves, that you find the real reasons why these people must be expelled from office.
I wonder how one elevator managed to escape altogether. Maybe attendants hid that particular breaker? Maybe one official has a relative on quimo there?
Thursday, 11 February 2016
The regime has decided to formally annul the National Assembly of Venezuela
Taking advantage of the half week (after Carnival holidays), that tomorrow there is no session in the Assembly, the high court , TSJ, decided that the vote to reject the Emergency decree of last January was not valid and thus the decree has been valid since January 14.
Voilá!
You are going to need a lot of pennies for my thoughts. Let's get going.
First, the factual aspect of it. Clearly, as you will understand in the second part of this post, this is a political move of the regime, a dangerous move that can only hurt itself. See, by downgrading the Assembly to nothing the regime will assume the full cost of the political and economic crisis which is getting worse by the minute. Then again, at this point the regime is beyond caring.
So, which are the facts? A technicality. According to the court head, the assembly should have voted down the decree within 48 hours and not within a week. It is on TV record that the chair of the Assembly verified about the week delay and the government did not object to it, and agreed to send the ministers to present their case. They did not, but that is not the point. That they agreed to show up and then did not show up was a tacit admission that the week delay was valid and thus under no circumstances can the high court intervene to defend one of the parties who suddenly, AFTER the fact, may secretly decide to appeal a decision. In other words, this has been a conspiracy where no parts was asked to present its counter argument. The servile high court of the regime emitted the political decision that was requested and that was that.
Let's also add that the Assembly offered to discuss a new version of the decree if the government wished to do so, even the same one if the gouvernement had the courtesy to be more explicit on its proposals. We heard only chirps in the woods.
Before we go into consequences and speculations let's discuss as a second item the political message in that decision. From the preexisting laws Maduro and his regime could pretty much do as they pleased on the economic front. The decree was merely to project the image of "doing something" about shortages, and probably justifying blocking access to savings to try to control inflation somehow, and establishing ration cards, amen of creating absolutely idiotic and absolutely corrupt food distribution schemes like the ones already tried out in Yaracuy. Thus the decree was a provocation from the start to please the bruised ego of the radical left after the dramatic loss of December vote. It was also the start of some plan but that one was not quite congealed as we can deduct simultaneous from the very vagueness and extremism of the decree. Part of the information required to develop that plan was study the resolve of the Assembly, the reaction of the country, and how the crisis was going on (I suppose).
Clearly the Assembly was going to do its work, was not breaking down, was going to put its pressure on the regime slowly but surely. A clear message had to be sent and that the ruling of today IS the message. The TSJ will turn down ANY mesure the regime does not want, on ANY pretext. Legality has nothing to do with it. In case you do not quite understand this, it is the very last step before a "auto golpe" or self coup, where the executive power takes over all the powers of the Assembly in particular the ones from the purse (economy and the like) and control (hearings of ministers). In short Maduro has announced tonight that, together with the president of the TSJ Gladys Gutierrez, he will decide what of the Assembly will go and what will not go. He has created for himself a veto power that does not exist in the constitution and cannot be voted down because, well, it does not exist. Il suffisait d'y penser!
By the same token any attempt at modifying the Constitution will also be voted down by the TSJ... Even a consultative referendum. And forget about reviewing old laws if the regime does not want to. A dictatorship, let's say it so.
And so we reach the third part, the why and what next.
Let me start by the what next because it is fast. Clearly this requires a strong response as it is unacceptable. We will wait for the Assembly leadership for that, it is their job. For example the idiotic Samper has announced a trip to Venezuela to bring his happy findings of December. He should be put to task. The National Assembly can go as far as requesting an emergency meeting of the OAS. It can vote a motion to censor our girl Gladys. Etc... But what will probably happen may be quite different. The reaction of the TSJ is not quite a surprise. I am surprised in that it came this way and relatively late, but a reaction was coming. After all, I think already when I left on a trip I heard some ranting from Cabello to that effect. Or just when I cam back, or I forgot.
The regime is playing chaos as a strategy for survival (wait for an upcoming post) so we should count this ruling as bad but with a very nice silver lining: the regime is taking full political responsibility for all the economical, food and medical implosion taking place right now, under our eyes. The Assembly lone power now is to do its job, to act according to ethics, to grind its teeth and to keep telling to people that the regime is wrong and that there will be consequences for their actions and for the people that apply these actions. The economic crisis will do the rest when hungry crowds start looting and the army finally has to step in to fight the gangs of thugs that support the regime coordinating these looting actions.
Finally the why (to be expanded this week end).
The country is imploding. I saw that myself, with my own eyes, after only ten days away (rep. intended).
Yesterday they changed the chemotherapy schedule for my S.O. because the mandatory electric shortages demand that patients are all rushed up faster than what normal care demands because of where the clinic is located and the time they are forced to shut down AC..
I have a new bachaquero. He charges between 2 to 4 times the official rate according to X. But I get, occasional,office delivery of significant supplies, let's say for me, my S.O., his mother, my house keeper in San Felipe (where the situation is way worse than in Caracas), my cleaning lady in Caracas, all people that cannot stand in line and who I do not charge full price. In fact I do not charge them, I pay their work with it, and they are way happier than with money. My S.O. and Mom I charge them less as their health bills are getting high so it is a discrete form to help them I found. They are simply out of touch, for obvious reasons, about the reality of the country. We all have our crosses.
Water comes only twice a week now. But I have a large tank, So in protest I water my lawn. If the regime had made maintenance as previewed, if it had made the investments that were requested and scheduled for 2010 we would not be suffering from the consequences of El Niño. which is a mere excuse as all the money spent in electrical generation through Derwick et al. seems to have been for naught.
Today I tried a new scheme to have "crucial" medicine sent from Europe at a horrendous price and through difficult loops: need to be European, need to have insurance over there, need to prove you cannot find it here, need to prove it is life threatening, etc... The paper work alone could kill you. And I do not know if it will work out, and I feel awfully guilty for those that cannot apply and I am doing this for my S.O. with my savings as his own ones are now gone.
And with all of the above, believe it or not, I still feel like a privileged because I can still afford it. I need to count pennies but I can still allot. So think about those who cannot. Today I helped someone by buying 50 euros at the full dollar today rate . Normally I do not do that but she needed to pay her kids school for the rest of the year.......
And that is the why. The country is sliding into the abyss. The regime knows that default is unavoidable now, if not they can read Nagel, and may be embracing the idea of it. But it is also understanding that there will be a heavy political price to pay. They are willing to pay for it because Maduro and Diosdado and Cilia and Tarek and a few generals know that regime change means jail for themselves. So they prefer to preside over the ruin of a country that they think they thus can control more easily. In their calculation there will be enough oil money for some very basic food items and aspirin, and enough drug money for their creature comforts. They cannot go elsewhere. Not even Cuba, too close from the US of A. And so they need to take out the National Assembly, provoke them into a crisis that justifies in front of "el pueblo" its dissolution and do away with direct suffrage, replaced by indirect suffrage, easier to control. They do not care what the word will think, they will be way too worried about the default to worry about Ramos Allup fate
And thus the actions of the regime these past weeks must be understood according to such parameters. They are aware that they will not recover the fervor of the people. Chavez bought that fervor though lot of goodies, some through real ideologization though outside of a core base some were also in for the money. They cannot count on that anymore. The time for fascism has arrived. Repression, destruction of legality, even their very own already deficient one. Use the distress of the country as an excuse to clamp down and see what happens. The hope for action is that military will cave in and accept to be the repressing agent. If not, then it will have to be the thug gangs that the regime has been promoting all these years that will do the job. They seem able and willing.
Will the whole strategy work? It may. It may not. More in a coming post this week end..
----------------
Two notes added in proof-
1) In regard of the "why". The recent confrontation with Lorenzo Mendoza may have sped up the decision to procede with the decree. That Polar are the lone products available is a gaping hole in all the conspiracy theories of why the "economic" war is letting the country slowly starve. The expropriation of Polar is something that was a target of that decree and something that the regime needs to do, to bring down the last remaining independent institution in the country, a symbol on how failed the regime is. It also would suicidal but that is probably what the regime wants. Abject poverty for all.
2) And what about the Vice president?
I have a hard time to think that he is part in that show. He was having discrete and difficult contacts with Ramos Allup. Aristobulo Isturriz was named to try to find a way to work with the new Assembly and he knows that such negotiations last weeks and months, in the best cases. We were even led to believe that some of the appointments of January were to reinforce somewhat the more "moderate" line of Aristobulo, to give it a name.
Clearly that TSJ decision sinks any discussion Aristobulo was trying to have. So two hypothesis.
1) he was making some headway and radicals did not like it and use the TSJ to blow at Aristobulo who will be forced to apply a decree that he knows full well will not work and that he will be forced to take the blame for it. If that is the case I will recommend Aristobulo to start a political crisis by resigning right now, at a press conference, convoked to announce new measures and instead to announce his resignation.
2) he was not making headway, or did not intend to so anyway. So these discussion were to gain time. As such he embraces the TSJ ruling and seals the final break up with the Assembly and walks straight ahead in the constitutional crisis.
I suggest Aristobulo to think carefully about his next move because he is being set up, no matter which is the hypothesis he is working on. But if I were to advise him, I would resign and create a scandal.
Voilá!
You are going to need a lot of pennies for my thoughts. Let's get going.
First, the factual aspect of it. Clearly, as you will understand in the second part of this post, this is a political move of the regime, a dangerous move that can only hurt itself. See, by downgrading the Assembly to nothing the regime will assume the full cost of the political and economic crisis which is getting worse by the minute. Then again, at this point the regime is beyond caring.
So, which are the facts? A technicality. According to the court head, the assembly should have voted down the decree within 48 hours and not within a week. It is on TV record that the chair of the Assembly verified about the week delay and the government did not object to it, and agreed to send the ministers to present their case. They did not, but that is not the point. That they agreed to show up and then did not show up was a tacit admission that the week delay was valid and thus under no circumstances can the high court intervene to defend one of the parties who suddenly, AFTER the fact, may secretly decide to appeal a decision. In other words, this has been a conspiracy where no parts was asked to present its counter argument. The servile high court of the regime emitted the political decision that was requested and that was that.
Let's also add that the Assembly offered to discuss a new version of the decree if the government wished to do so, even the same one if the gouvernement had the courtesy to be more explicit on its proposals. We heard only chirps in the woods.
Before we go into consequences and speculations let's discuss as a second item the political message in that decision. From the preexisting laws Maduro and his regime could pretty much do as they pleased on the economic front. The decree was merely to project the image of "doing something" about shortages, and probably justifying blocking access to savings to try to control inflation somehow, and establishing ration cards, amen of creating absolutely idiotic and absolutely corrupt food distribution schemes like the ones already tried out in Yaracuy. Thus the decree was a provocation from the start to please the bruised ego of the radical left after the dramatic loss of December vote. It was also the start of some plan but that one was not quite congealed as we can deduct simultaneous from the very vagueness and extremism of the decree. Part of the information required to develop that plan was study the resolve of the Assembly, the reaction of the country, and how the crisis was going on (I suppose).
Clearly the Assembly was going to do its work, was not breaking down, was going to put its pressure on the regime slowly but surely. A clear message had to be sent and that the ruling of today IS the message. The TSJ will turn down ANY mesure the regime does not want, on ANY pretext. Legality has nothing to do with it. In case you do not quite understand this, it is the very last step before a "auto golpe" or self coup, where the executive power takes over all the powers of the Assembly in particular the ones from the purse (economy and the like) and control (hearings of ministers). In short Maduro has announced tonight that, together with the president of the TSJ Gladys Gutierrez, he will decide what of the Assembly will go and what will not go. He has created for himself a veto power that does not exist in the constitution and cannot be voted down because, well, it does not exist. Il suffisait d'y penser!
By the same token any attempt at modifying the Constitution will also be voted down by the TSJ... Even a consultative referendum. And forget about reviewing old laws if the regime does not want to. A dictatorship, let's say it so.
And so we reach the third part, the why and what next.
Let me start by the what next because it is fast. Clearly this requires a strong response as it is unacceptable. We will wait for the Assembly leadership for that, it is their job. For example the idiotic Samper has announced a trip to Venezuela to bring his happy findings of December. He should be put to task. The National Assembly can go as far as requesting an emergency meeting of the OAS. It can vote a motion to censor our girl Gladys. Etc... But what will probably happen may be quite different. The reaction of the TSJ is not quite a surprise. I am surprised in that it came this way and relatively late, but a reaction was coming. After all, I think already when I left on a trip I heard some ranting from Cabello to that effect. Or just when I cam back, or I forgot.
The regime is playing chaos as a strategy for survival (wait for an upcoming post) so we should count this ruling as bad but with a very nice silver lining: the regime is taking full political responsibility for all the economical, food and medical implosion taking place right now, under our eyes. The Assembly lone power now is to do its job, to act according to ethics, to grind its teeth and to keep telling to people that the regime is wrong and that there will be consequences for their actions and for the people that apply these actions. The economic crisis will do the rest when hungry crowds start looting and the army finally has to step in to fight the gangs of thugs that support the regime coordinating these looting actions.
Finally the why (to be expanded this week end).
The country is imploding. I saw that myself, with my own eyes, after only ten days away (rep. intended).
Yesterday they changed the chemotherapy schedule for my S.O. because the mandatory electric shortages demand that patients are all rushed up faster than what normal care demands because of where the clinic is located and the time they are forced to shut down AC..
I have a new bachaquero. He charges between 2 to 4 times the official rate according to X. But I get, occasional,office delivery of significant supplies, let's say for me, my S.O., his mother, my house keeper in San Felipe (where the situation is way worse than in Caracas), my cleaning lady in Caracas, all people that cannot stand in line and who I do not charge full price. In fact I do not charge them, I pay their work with it, and they are way happier than with money. My S.O. and Mom I charge them less as their health bills are getting high so it is a discrete form to help them I found. They are simply out of touch, for obvious reasons, about the reality of the country. We all have our crosses.
Water comes only twice a week now. But I have a large tank, So in protest I water my lawn. If the regime had made maintenance as previewed, if it had made the investments that were requested and scheduled for 2010 we would not be suffering from the consequences of El Niño. which is a mere excuse as all the money spent in electrical generation through Derwick et al. seems to have been for naught.
Today I tried a new scheme to have "crucial" medicine sent from Europe at a horrendous price and through difficult loops: need to be European, need to have insurance over there, need to prove you cannot find it here, need to prove it is life threatening, etc... The paper work alone could kill you. And I do not know if it will work out, and I feel awfully guilty for those that cannot apply and I am doing this for my S.O. with my savings as his own ones are now gone.
And with all of the above, believe it or not, I still feel like a privileged because I can still afford it. I need to count pennies but I can still allot. So think about those who cannot. Today I helped someone by buying 50 euros at the full dollar today rate . Normally I do not do that but she needed to pay her kids school for the rest of the year.......
And that is the why. The country is sliding into the abyss. The regime knows that default is unavoidable now, if not they can read Nagel, and may be embracing the idea of it. But it is also understanding that there will be a heavy political price to pay. They are willing to pay for it because Maduro and Diosdado and Cilia and Tarek and a few generals know that regime change means jail for themselves. So they prefer to preside over the ruin of a country that they think they thus can control more easily. In their calculation there will be enough oil money for some very basic food items and aspirin, and enough drug money for their creature comforts. They cannot go elsewhere. Not even Cuba, too close from the US of A. And so they need to take out the National Assembly, provoke them into a crisis that justifies in front of "el pueblo" its dissolution and do away with direct suffrage, replaced by indirect suffrage, easier to control. They do not care what the word will think, they will be way too worried about the default to worry about Ramos Allup fate
And thus the actions of the regime these past weeks must be understood according to such parameters. They are aware that they will not recover the fervor of the people. Chavez bought that fervor though lot of goodies, some through real ideologization though outside of a core base some were also in for the money. They cannot count on that anymore. The time for fascism has arrived. Repression, destruction of legality, even their very own already deficient one. Use the distress of the country as an excuse to clamp down and see what happens. The hope for action is that military will cave in and accept to be the repressing agent. If not, then it will have to be the thug gangs that the regime has been promoting all these years that will do the job. They seem able and willing.
Will the whole strategy work? It may. It may not. More in a coming post this week end..
----------------
Two notes added in proof-
1) In regard of the "why". The recent confrontation with Lorenzo Mendoza may have sped up the decision to procede with the decree. That Polar are the lone products available is a gaping hole in all the conspiracy theories of why the "economic" war is letting the country slowly starve. The expropriation of Polar is something that was a target of that decree and something that the regime needs to do, to bring down the last remaining independent institution in the country, a symbol on how failed the regime is. It also would suicidal but that is probably what the regime wants. Abject poverty for all.
2) And what about the Vice president?
I have a hard time to think that he is part in that show. He was having discrete and difficult contacts with Ramos Allup. Aristobulo Isturriz was named to try to find a way to work with the new Assembly and he knows that such negotiations last weeks and months, in the best cases. We were even led to believe that some of the appointments of January were to reinforce somewhat the more "moderate" line of Aristobulo, to give it a name.
Clearly that TSJ decision sinks any discussion Aristobulo was trying to have. So two hypothesis.
1) he was making some headway and radicals did not like it and use the TSJ to blow at Aristobulo who will be forced to apply a decree that he knows full well will not work and that he will be forced to take the blame for it. If that is the case I will recommend Aristobulo to start a political crisis by resigning right now, at a press conference, convoked to announce new measures and instead to announce his resignation.
2) he was not making headway, or did not intend to so anyway. So these discussion were to gain time. As such he embraces the TSJ ruling and seals the final break up with the Assembly and walks straight ahead in the constitutional crisis.
I suggest Aristobulo to think carefully about his next move because he is being set up, no matter which is the hypothesis he is working on. But if I were to advise him, I would resign and create a scandal.
Sunday, 7 February 2016
When ration cards are an economic best option
I guess long time readers of this blog may blanch at the title, but bear with me a tad longer.
I have stopped living regularly in Yaracuy but I am in close touch. I still hold a home there. So checking things when I came back from my recent trip overseas I learned what is simply a staggering piece of news.
Now people need to register for a list of food items, namely the most wanted list of regulated basic staples: corn flour, corn oil, chicken and a half dozen more. The system will work as follow.
Somebody will come to your home and will register you and how many live there. Then, as items become available, someone will visit you in advance and you need to pay. You will get informed at what date delivery will come and you will need to have someone at home to receive the goods. These goods cannot be purchased anymore at any store in Yaracuy. You can only get them through registration at your local town hall and receive them either through home delivery or neighborhood distribution. Apparently local branches of PDVAL and MERCAL will simply close.
I could not get all the details as it seems they sort of vary according to the type of neighborhood you live in. One contact got a distribution of corn flour and chicken at the end of the street just because the consejo comunal knew she lived there (she had registered anyway). Another one has duly registered early in January. Once she received black beans after a two weeks delay after paying for them (200 Bs, 2 dimes!). Another time she got corn flour and mayo or something.
What is wrong with this picture?
First, the apparent commodity of having home delivery is an excuse: you can control better on an individual basis who gets what and remind them of that each and every time,
Second, the state can do significant "savings" on goods availability. Indeed, being absent from Yaracuy during this registration process I cannot purchase anything and I am sure that registering after the fact is not going to be easy. Never mind that if there is nobody home when you are visited at putting the order time, well, you get no delivery. And the better if delivery is when, say, you are at work.
Third, this is a monstrously complicated and expensive system to set in place. A ration card system with an assigned store would be much simpler and cheaper, if you must ration. Hence the title of this post.
Fourth, it is extremely sectarian and anti business. Of course. Not only stores are now forbidden to sell certain type of goods but you cannot buy certain type of goods out of your living areas. Soon enough we move on to conditions like soviet areas where people in certain cities had access to more varied type of goods than folks in small towns and country side where nobody could visit and thus could figure out what was going on. A little bit more and you will need a permit to travel between San Felipe and Caracas.
Why, oh why?
Julio Leon Heredia is Yaracuy governor and he is a fascist. I do not know as of this typing if other states are having such schemes set up, but I would not be surprised at all that Yaracuy is ahead of the pack. This is quite along the lines of the autocratic mentality of Heredia, someone blocked to any dialogue and who in addition is still in shock at the loss of his own brother election in December 6 and who is probably delighted at punishing the Yaracuy people that did not vote for him at a 80% rate. It is just that simple, I know the character, I have already been a victim of his administration.
I have stopped living regularly in Yaracuy but I am in close touch. I still hold a home there. So checking things when I came back from my recent trip overseas I learned what is simply a staggering piece of news.
Now people need to register for a list of food items, namely the most wanted list of regulated basic staples: corn flour, corn oil, chicken and a half dozen more. The system will work as follow.
Somebody will come to your home and will register you and how many live there. Then, as items become available, someone will visit you in advance and you need to pay. You will get informed at what date delivery will come and you will need to have someone at home to receive the goods. These goods cannot be purchased anymore at any store in Yaracuy. You can only get them through registration at your local town hall and receive them either through home delivery or neighborhood distribution. Apparently local branches of PDVAL and MERCAL will simply close.
I could not get all the details as it seems they sort of vary according to the type of neighborhood you live in. One contact got a distribution of corn flour and chicken at the end of the street just because the consejo comunal knew she lived there (she had registered anyway). Another one has duly registered early in January. Once she received black beans after a two weeks delay after paying for them (200 Bs, 2 dimes!). Another time she got corn flour and mayo or something.
What is wrong with this picture?
First, the apparent commodity of having home delivery is an excuse: you can control better on an individual basis who gets what and remind them of that each and every time,
Second, the state can do significant "savings" on goods availability. Indeed, being absent from Yaracuy during this registration process I cannot purchase anything and I am sure that registering after the fact is not going to be easy. Never mind that if there is nobody home when you are visited at putting the order time, well, you get no delivery. And the better if delivery is when, say, you are at work.
Third, this is a monstrously complicated and expensive system to set in place. A ration card system with an assigned store would be much simpler and cheaper, if you must ration. Hence the title of this post.
Fourth, it is extremely sectarian and anti business. Of course. Not only stores are now forbidden to sell certain type of goods but you cannot buy certain type of goods out of your living areas. Soon enough we move on to conditions like soviet areas where people in certain cities had access to more varied type of goods than folks in small towns and country side where nobody could visit and thus could figure out what was going on. A little bit more and you will need a permit to travel between San Felipe and Caracas.
Why, oh why?
Julio Leon Heredia is Yaracuy governor and he is a fascist. I do not know as of this typing if other states are having such schemes set up, but I would not be surprised at all that Yaracuy is ahead of the pack. This is quite along the lines of the autocratic mentality of Heredia, someone blocked to any dialogue and who in addition is still in shock at the loss of his own brother election in December 6 and who is probably delighted at punishing the Yaracuy people that did not vote for him at a 80% rate. It is just that simple, I know the character, I have already been a victim of his administration.
Friday, 5 February 2016
Bewilderment
This is the feeling since I came back. First, I could not believe the visible degradation in supplies in a mere ten days. Today I did my first grocery shopping with my usual non regulated price items and it was, I kid you not, at least 25% above what I paid last time. More worryingly, since I still can afford for the time being, my deli was out of all but the strict basics. That is, no salami, no biscotto ham, etc...That already meager shelf when compared to more civilized countries was simply empty.
But the bewilderment was stronger as I started catching up with the politics. Oh my, oh my....
So many things have happened that it would be too long to come back on them. We had, for example, a show of force from the real owners of the jail systems, the pranes also known as "negative leaders". These mafia-thug-narco-whatever characters come and go from jail where they reside because, well, it is safer for them to reside in there. More protection from their body guards. One, "el conejo", the rabbit, went to a party and was shot on his way back to jail. Margarita was in turmoil as the pissed off inmates displayed even war weaponry with the public order unable to do much about it. Another one in Maracay got his lieutenant shot and demanded that the northern part of Maracay observe mourning the day of the funeral. All shops and schools had to close down, the police and army unable to protect them from the wrath of his supporters.
But that is not the only place where the regime is making water. On the political front it is not doing so good either. The opposition MUD is slowly but surely putting Maduro in a legal trap that will force this one to either kick the table and make a coup, or leave office. This is actually not hard: the National Assembly has simply started to doing its job which includes a review of laws, and its controlling function of holding hearings to ask ministers how the money is spent. That alone is sending the regime in a frenzy. Ministers are courting "desacato" which means that they are refusing to attend normal hearings (in particular the son in law of Chavez who probably thinks he is royalty) and thus risk sanctions that could go as far as brief jail stints.
Vituperation against the Assembly is reaching new heights, which is not good because the backroom negotiations that we know are taking place could be irremediably damaged. But then again this is what the pro Cuban radicals and the narco corrupt sectors want. The highest shriek was this week when Maduro publicly insulted in the vilest form Lorenzo Mendoza of the Polar group who had been too polite when he sent the message that the crisis was too bad to keep going at these silly games the regime was playing. The insults included direct threats. Threats also came from Diosdado Cabello.
What can we make of this?
First, the obvious, the regime is out of arguments and thus it uses procacious and violent words to silence adversaries. Classical. But if Chavez with oil at 100 could get away with it; Maduro with empty shelves and dead babies cannot.
Clearly there is a tug of war inside the regime that explains that exasperation, that refusal for any type of negotiation, or even recognition from the "establishment" of the regime towards the MUD. From their growing loss of privileges to the progressive realization that a lot of them will have to face the consequences of years of looting and assorted misdeeds comes that growing despair and political mistakes. I know, I have already stated such many times but I think this time it is different, the ground is shifting fast inside chavismo as the crisis is leaving no respite.
This is what I think is going on.
Maduro is the voice of Cuba. They are probably already not receiving the cash they used to receive but the Venezuelan situation now makes it nearly impossible to keep sending them anything. Either we starve or they do. I doubt that the military will accept to shoot at food riots to allow Maduro to keep sending Cuba's allowance. But the army has been infiltrated by a Cuban security. How do you deal with that?
Cabello and the narcos have rallied Maduro because at this point they have no other choice. For all practical purpose the National Assembly loss per se did not undo Cabello, the magnitude of the loss did it. You do not survive such a rejection and thus he is everyone's favorite scapegoat.
But the regime has again wasted precious time, two solid months without any sensible economic measures and things got worse. In fact we are learning that they are importing expensive and useless banknotes that will push further inflation while the remaining gold reserves are been negotiated to postpone by a couple of months default. The drop of Venezuelan bonds indicate clearly that all expect default before the end of the year. In other words, it is clear for all that the regime will not change its policies. It does not want to. It cannot do it. It would not know how to do it. And it does not has the people to do it anyway. We are stuck. Regime change or massive repression are the only options.
The MUD opposition, give or take a few, is doing the only thing it can do, stay as close as possible to the law. That is enough to push the regime over the brink. It has offered to negotiate a deal but it takes two to negotiate and this apparently will not happen now. Two months after the election surely we would have seen some semi solid evidence. No? Thus the opposition keeps pushing, opening the cracks inside chavismo, hoping, against all hope?, that some sensible group emerges.
One thing is certain, any civil war that may start will not start from the opposition but within chavismo. The opposition has no weapons, the factions of the regime have. Look at what happened with the pranes armies these past couple of weeks. They can start a war if they want. And the army knows that very well.
Meanwhile the army is deciding whether it will allow Cuba to starve Venezuelans.
This all will be played rather fast, if you ask me. We are talking weeks here.
Stay bewildered. It will help.
But the bewilderment was stronger as I started catching up with the politics. Oh my, oh my....
So many things have happened that it would be too long to come back on them. We had, for example, a show of force from the real owners of the jail systems, the pranes also known as "negative leaders". These mafia-thug-narco-whatever characters come and go from jail where they reside because, well, it is safer for them to reside in there. More protection from their body guards. One, "el conejo", the rabbit, went to a party and was shot on his way back to jail. Margarita was in turmoil as the pissed off inmates displayed even war weaponry with the public order unable to do much about it. Another one in Maracay got his lieutenant shot and demanded that the northern part of Maracay observe mourning the day of the funeral. All shops and schools had to close down, the police and army unable to protect them from the wrath of his supporters.
But that is not the only place where the regime is making water. On the political front it is not doing so good either. The opposition MUD is slowly but surely putting Maduro in a legal trap that will force this one to either kick the table and make a coup, or leave office. This is actually not hard: the National Assembly has simply started to doing its job which includes a review of laws, and its controlling function of holding hearings to ask ministers how the money is spent. That alone is sending the regime in a frenzy. Ministers are courting "desacato" which means that they are refusing to attend normal hearings (in particular the son in law of Chavez who probably thinks he is royalty) and thus risk sanctions that could go as far as brief jail stints.
Vituperation against the Assembly is reaching new heights, which is not good because the backroom negotiations that we know are taking place could be irremediably damaged. But then again this is what the pro Cuban radicals and the narco corrupt sectors want. The highest shriek was this week when Maduro publicly insulted in the vilest form Lorenzo Mendoza of the Polar group who had been too polite when he sent the message that the crisis was too bad to keep going at these silly games the regime was playing. The insults included direct threats. Threats also came from Diosdado Cabello.
What can we make of this?
First, the obvious, the regime is out of arguments and thus it uses procacious and violent words to silence adversaries. Classical. But if Chavez with oil at 100 could get away with it; Maduro with empty shelves and dead babies cannot.
Clearly there is a tug of war inside the regime that explains that exasperation, that refusal for any type of negotiation, or even recognition from the "establishment" of the regime towards the MUD. From their growing loss of privileges to the progressive realization that a lot of them will have to face the consequences of years of looting and assorted misdeeds comes that growing despair and political mistakes. I know, I have already stated such many times but I think this time it is different, the ground is shifting fast inside chavismo as the crisis is leaving no respite.
This is what I think is going on.
Maduro is the voice of Cuba. They are probably already not receiving the cash they used to receive but the Venezuelan situation now makes it nearly impossible to keep sending them anything. Either we starve or they do. I doubt that the military will accept to shoot at food riots to allow Maduro to keep sending Cuba's allowance. But the army has been infiltrated by a Cuban security. How do you deal with that?
Cabello and the narcos have rallied Maduro because at this point they have no other choice. For all practical purpose the National Assembly loss per se did not undo Cabello, the magnitude of the loss did it. You do not survive such a rejection and thus he is everyone's favorite scapegoat.
But the regime has again wasted precious time, two solid months without any sensible economic measures and things got worse. In fact we are learning that they are importing expensive and useless banknotes that will push further inflation while the remaining gold reserves are been negotiated to postpone by a couple of months default. The drop of Venezuelan bonds indicate clearly that all expect default before the end of the year. In other words, it is clear for all that the regime will not change its policies. It does not want to. It cannot do it. It would not know how to do it. And it does not has the people to do it anyway. We are stuck. Regime change or massive repression are the only options.
The MUD opposition, give or take a few, is doing the only thing it can do, stay as close as possible to the law. That is enough to push the regime over the brink. It has offered to negotiate a deal but it takes two to negotiate and this apparently will not happen now. Two months after the election surely we would have seen some semi solid evidence. No? Thus the opposition keeps pushing, opening the cracks inside chavismo, hoping, against all hope?, that some sensible group emerges.
One thing is certain, any civil war that may start will not start from the opposition but within chavismo. The opposition has no weapons, the factions of the regime have. Look at what happened with the pranes armies these past couple of weeks. They can start a war if they want. And the army knows that very well.
Meanwhile the army is deciding whether it will allow Cuba to starve Venezuelans.
This all will be played rather fast, if you ask me. We are talking weeks here.
Stay bewildered. It will help.
Wednesday, 3 February 2016
Mille e tre
Se sia brutta, se sia bella
I was in shock today going to my local grocery store after ten days out of the country. I was not expecting any improvement in the scarcity crisis but I was not expecting such clear degradation within a week. After all, the last week in January is the one where we are supposed to reopen business in full after the month and a half closing for the holidays. The least one would hope is that returning products would compensate for disappearing ones, for a few days, until all goes down the drain, say, late February. But it looks that wee will not have that luxury.
Madamina, il catalogo e' questo
I did not have time to look in details, first day at work, but that was I saw, or did not: lots of holes in all shelves. There was no pasta, not even the expensive imported Italian. No dish washing detergent. No cereal whatsoever, not even some disgusting sugary concoction still available for kids. In fact, Coke had replaced cereal in its shelves. No tuna, even though it has gone a lot in price. Etc...
un catalogo egli è che [Lorenzo, not da Ponte] fatt'io
Of course, what is happening is simply what this blog narrative has been consistent about, "la costanza". There is no raw material henceforth, no production. The political humdrum welcoming me, much more important than grieving jails in Margarita, is the heptalogue of Lorenzo Mendoza about what the regime must do NOW, THIS INSTANT, WITHOUT ANY FURTHER DELAY before disaster strikes. I am not going to give you the details, I would need more than a post, and, besides, regural readers already can guess. What we need is regime change because reform at this point will not do anymore. Lorenzo did not say that but it is the inescapable conclusion of his words: he said what needs to be done and we all know that the regime is absolutely unable to do even a tenth of what is listed.
in Turchia novantuna
But Lorenzo went further than his proposal, he blew away the miserable half-assed actions that the regime has undertaken in recent days to try to cover up its failure at getting anything done anywhere, the more so that its emergency decree was rejected as it should have been. For example Lorenzo observed that in all those "mesas de trabajo" held to find solutions to the crisis, the Polar Group, the biggest, by far, food producing company in Venezuela was not invited to attend. Meaning that any regime plan that does not account for the only actor that can truly do something about the crisis is doomed to fail. And to nail in the point Lorenzo gave numbers, and deadly ones. He said that to import what Polar can produce with the 5.900 million dollars the regime allocated then the regime would have to spend 93.300 millions. In other words, Polar is 18 times more productive/efficient than the regime's bureaucrats. The problem is not the private enterprise, it is the regime.
Osservate, leggete con me
Of course, the regime was not amused by the words of Lorenzo Mendoza, who were passed by Globovision that was punished again by the regime. But it is not going to stop there. We heard already heavy batteries shooting at Lorenzo from diverse quarters and tonight it came from Diosdado Cabello personally who said on his TV talk show that Lorenzo has received himself the 5.500 millions of dollars and thus became the richest man in the world. Why would the richest man in the world still reside in Venezuela he did not explain. But then again the audience he addressed such words is not the type of audience that delves in such finesse. Fancy fencing times are over, this is rude butcher knives throwing times.
...donne d'ogni grado,
D'ogni forma, d'ogni età
Meanwhile the currency reaches new records in the black market and lines for all are reaching new records. My black market person informed me today that he is not receiving goods, that there is not enough reaching the store so that he cannot resell some on the side. Apparently there is a certain percentage he was allowed to "buy" but now either there is not enough or he is outbid by other colleagues. How am I going to do to support not only me but those that I support because they cannot stand in line for hours, well, you tell me.... Anyone knows a good black-marketeer?
Voi sapete quel che fa........
I was in shock today going to my local grocery store after ten days out of the country. I was not expecting any improvement in the scarcity crisis but I was not expecting such clear degradation within a week. After all, the last week in January is the one where we are supposed to reopen business in full after the month and a half closing for the holidays. The least one would hope is that returning products would compensate for disappearing ones, for a few days, until all goes down the drain, say, late February. But it looks that wee will not have that luxury.Madamina, il catalogo e' questo
I did not have time to look in details, first day at work, but that was I saw, or did not: lots of holes in all shelves. There was no pasta, not even the expensive imported Italian. No dish washing detergent. No cereal whatsoever, not even some disgusting sugary concoction still available for kids. In fact, Coke had replaced cereal in its shelves. No tuna, even though it has gone a lot in price. Etc...
un catalogo egli è che [Lorenzo, not da Ponte] fatt'io
Of course, what is happening is simply what this blog narrative has been consistent about, "la costanza". There is no raw material henceforth, no production. The political humdrum welcoming me, much more important than grieving jails in Margarita, is the heptalogue of Lorenzo Mendoza about what the regime must do NOW, THIS INSTANT, WITHOUT ANY FURTHER DELAY before disaster strikes. I am not going to give you the details, I would need more than a post, and, besides, regural readers already can guess. What we need is regime change because reform at this point will not do anymore. Lorenzo did not say that but it is the inescapable conclusion of his words: he said what needs to be done and we all know that the regime is absolutely unable to do even a tenth of what is listed.
in Turchia novantuna
But Lorenzo went further than his proposal, he blew away the miserable half-assed actions that the regime has undertaken in recent days to try to cover up its failure at getting anything done anywhere, the more so that its emergency decree was rejected as it should have been. For example Lorenzo observed that in all those "mesas de trabajo" held to find solutions to the crisis, the Polar Group, the biggest, by far, food producing company in Venezuela was not invited to attend. Meaning that any regime plan that does not account for the only actor that can truly do something about the crisis is doomed to fail. And to nail in the point Lorenzo gave numbers, and deadly ones. He said that to import what Polar can produce with the 5.900 million dollars the regime allocated then the regime would have to spend 93.300 millions. In other words, Polar is 18 times more productive/efficient than the regime's bureaucrats. The problem is not the private enterprise, it is the regime.
Osservate, leggete con me
Of course, the regime was not amused by the words of Lorenzo Mendoza, who were passed by Globovision that was punished again by the regime. But it is not going to stop there. We heard already heavy batteries shooting at Lorenzo from diverse quarters and tonight it came from Diosdado Cabello personally who said on his TV talk show that Lorenzo has received himself the 5.500 millions of dollars and thus became the richest man in the world. Why would the richest man in the world still reside in Venezuela he did not explain. But then again the audience he addressed such words is not the type of audience that delves in such finesse. Fancy fencing times are over, this is rude butcher knives throwing times.
...donne d'ogni grado,
D'ogni forma, d'ogni età
Meanwhile the currency reaches new records in the black market and lines for all are reaching new records. My black market person informed me today that he is not receiving goods, that there is not enough reaching the store so that he cannot resell some on the side. Apparently there is a certain percentage he was allowed to "buy" but now either there is not enough or he is outbid by other colleagues. How am I going to do to support not only me but those that I support because they cannot stand in line for hours, well, you tell me.... Anyone knows a good black-marketeer?
Voi sapete quel che fa........
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