Since last night post things got worse. A bevy of journalists have been barred from entry in or outright expelled from the country (useless unless they also expelled those that are already installed as fixed correspondents). Human Rights organizations count already 37 arbitrary arrests in the last 48 hours. Access to Caracas is nearly blocked. Threats from the regime have reached a new high pitch. Etc.
Still, I think that this is absolutely counterproductive and for anyone that will stay home scared, a newly pissed off one will decide to hit the streets tomorrow.
I, for one in a million, I hope for, will be there. But the sector where I am supposed to stand in the "taking of Caracas" is not the most glamour one, nor scenic. The objective of the event is to have a sea of people stand in the three main road axis of Caracas besides the main one, the central autopista. Mine from El Cafetal is the Rio de Janeiro avenue that follows the right bank of the Güaire river. Next to the smell of the open sewer that Chavez promised years ago to clean up so he could take a swim with Evo.
I supposed that one advantage will a be less crowded network usage so I may be able to post things real time on Twitter and Instagram. In normal marches rallies closer to downtown some times you cannot even send a text! You have on the right side of this blog the links to both. Keep in mind that I am the last one of the historical bloggers still reporting from Venezuela in English. And who knows for how long...
Also if you have something to share send it to me. If I can download it and put it up I will. Or at night tomorrow.
That is all for tonight, going to bed hoping to forget for a few hours all the crazy going on, including dangerous remarks by Maduro, remarks that by themselves would get him a spot on one the The Hague benches. It is that crazy for these creeps...
See you tomorrow starting sometime after 9 AM , maybe, depending on how the country wakes up.
Wednesday, 31 August 2016
Tuesday, 30 August 2016
Kalends of September for chavismo, or so it seems
The regime has made its business to turn into a fateful day the vast opposition rally planned for next Thursday September 1st. The regime has a lot to lose on that day, but it made sure that its losses would be greater than necessary. And, personally, at this point I do not see how the regime could rake any gain.
It all started when the opposition tired of waiting for a Recall Election date decided to mount a massive protest against Maduro's regime, that is, demanding his exit as soon as possible. Of course, the chosen way is to hold a Recall Election before January 10 2017. The opposition to Maduro has nothing to gain from any unconstitutional settlement of the political crisis: all polls give the opposition soaring numbers since last December stunning electoral victory. Besides, even if the opposition did not enjoy a 70+ against Maduro and wanted to do a stunt, how would it do that? The Venezuelan opposition has been deprived of arms, newspapers, TV, and even of its politicians as many are in jail.
The regime knows all of this, certainly. It also can read polls. And it knows that outside of the likes of Cuba or Nicaragua it has no international support left, at least of the kind that would speak favorably of Maduro. Even supposed allies like Putin or Correa are, well, rather discreet in their praise, if any.
The battle for the regime is lost. They are unwilling to change the economic system, to open up. As such the economy will keep spiraling down and soon there will be outright bouts of near starvation with all the political mess that comes along. The laws of the economy are finally speaking up in Venezuela and there is no hope that the only economic policy left for the regime, oil at 80 USD a barrel, will happen in the near future. And never mind its personnel as Venezuela is the only country we know of where its interior and security minister cannot travel out of the country least Interpol grabs him and sends him to a trial in the US. Needless to recall the awaited fate of other regime's luminaries.
Faced with what is predicted to be the largest anti regime rally since 2002/2003 the regime decided against the wise move: let it happen and ignore it the best you can, using this as a demonstration that democracy is not dead in Venezuela. Instead it has chosen the worst way to prove that this is indeed a dictatorship.
All sorts of means to block the rally are attempted, too long to list. Here follows the main ones.
- Threats of all type, verbal menaces from higher up in the regime
- Outright fascist firing of public employees that dare criticize in any way the regime's results (examples here, here and here)
- Forbidding Al Jazeera journalists from entering the country to cover the events
- Forbidding any private flight, even drones, until September 5, so that there would be no evidence of the large turnout, as if roof tops were not enough to establish that anyway. And it does not matter as the opposition announced it will fly drones anyway (so I can illustrate for you the mood)
- Blocking access to Caracas for the possibly 100+ thousand people that will show up from all parts of the country
- After months of absence reopen food fairs like Mercal so as to try to divert folks from the march to go and get some of the scarce food. Though it is not clear if it is just counter propaganda planted by the regime.
- Call for its own counter rally downtown Caracas to block the opposition possible march there
- Promises of all sorts for Caracas, all to be done by Christmas
- All sorts of conspiracy theories as to the opposition wanting to reedit April 11 2002 (from the hands of the Empire in the North, of course)
Etc...
But the worst assault has been on Voluntad Popular, the political party of Leopoldo Lopez, the cause celèbre of political prisoners. For the last week there has been an onslaught against the leadership of the party, from accusing the mayor of El Hatillo of smuggling arms, to take San Cristobal mayor from his sick bed in the middle of the night to send him to jail, to outright kidnapping of militants. The vindictiveness of the large concerted attack on Voluntad Popular is simply amazing. Other political parties are not buying: they know they are next. And the OAS least raised its tone as its secretary has issued, in Spanish for now, a long letter which resumes all fo the above and can be read as a stern warning against the regime.
We must wonder what is the regime seeking. Can it be so clumsy? Is there some master plan behind?
I am afraid that the regime seeks an act of violence that it can provoke easily itself by sending under cover to the rallies Thursday delinquents that will pretend to pin on the opposition a violence that the regime will have started itself. That would explain all of the conspiracy theories blurted these past few days and the arrest of Voluntad Popular leadership which will presumably bear the brunt of the accusation. The ridicule for the regime's cause that Voluntad Popular would have committed the crimes AFTER their incarceration does not seem to have been considered. But that is not the point.
A desperate regime is building a narrative to justify its September repression in the eyes of the followers it still has. In short, the regime is preparing itself to cut loose from the civilized world and drive into oblivion the Venezuelan populations just as the Cuban one was pushed down to nothing within months of the arrival of Fidel in 1958. All seems to point out to that strategy, from ignoring the OAS to put in jail Voluntad Popular leadership, the most active in the streets, the one that apparently must be threatening the most chavismo.
Let's not forget that the loudest voices inside chavismo are the ones most likely to go to jail as soon as they set foot outside of the country. They have nothing to lose anymore. Hence...
Which does not mean they will succeed and as they fail, well...
It all started when the opposition tired of waiting for a Recall Election date decided to mount a massive protest against Maduro's regime, that is, demanding his exit as soon as possible. Of course, the chosen way is to hold a Recall Election before January 10 2017. The opposition to Maduro has nothing to gain from any unconstitutional settlement of the political crisis: all polls give the opposition soaring numbers since last December stunning electoral victory. Besides, even if the opposition did not enjoy a 70+ against Maduro and wanted to do a stunt, how would it do that? The Venezuelan opposition has been deprived of arms, newspapers, TV, and even of its politicians as many are in jail.
The regime knows all of this, certainly. It also can read polls. And it knows that outside of the likes of Cuba or Nicaragua it has no international support left, at least of the kind that would speak favorably of Maduro. Even supposed allies like Putin or Correa are, well, rather discreet in their praise, if any.
The battle for the regime is lost. They are unwilling to change the economic system, to open up. As such the economy will keep spiraling down and soon there will be outright bouts of near starvation with all the political mess that comes along. The laws of the economy are finally speaking up in Venezuela and there is no hope that the only economic policy left for the regime, oil at 80 USD a barrel, will happen in the near future. And never mind its personnel as Venezuela is the only country we know of where its interior and security minister cannot travel out of the country least Interpol grabs him and sends him to a trial in the US. Needless to recall the awaited fate of other regime's luminaries.
Faced with what is predicted to be the largest anti regime rally since 2002/2003 the regime decided against the wise move: let it happen and ignore it the best you can, using this as a demonstration that democracy is not dead in Venezuela. Instead it has chosen the worst way to prove that this is indeed a dictatorship.
All sorts of means to block the rally are attempted, too long to list. Here follows the main ones.
- Threats of all type, verbal menaces from higher up in the regime
- Outright fascist firing of public employees that dare criticize in any way the regime's results (examples here, here and here)
- Forbidding Al Jazeera journalists from entering the country to cover the events
- Forbidding any private flight, even drones, until September 5, so that there would be no evidence of the large turnout, as if roof tops were not enough to establish that anyway. And it does not matter as the opposition announced it will fly drones anyway (so I can illustrate for you the mood)
- Blocking access to Caracas for the possibly 100+ thousand people that will show up from all parts of the country
- After months of absence reopen food fairs like Mercal so as to try to divert folks from the march to go and get some of the scarce food. Though it is not clear if it is just counter propaganda planted by the regime.
- Call for its own counter rally downtown Caracas to block the opposition possible march there
- Promises of all sorts for Caracas, all to be done by Christmas
- All sorts of conspiracy theories as to the opposition wanting to reedit April 11 2002 (from the hands of the Empire in the North, of course)
Etc...
But the worst assault has been on Voluntad Popular, the political party of Leopoldo Lopez, the cause celèbre of political prisoners. For the last week there has been an onslaught against the leadership of the party, from accusing the mayor of El Hatillo of smuggling arms, to take San Cristobal mayor from his sick bed in the middle of the night to send him to jail, to outright kidnapping of militants. The vindictiveness of the large concerted attack on Voluntad Popular is simply amazing. Other political parties are not buying: they know they are next. And the OAS least raised its tone as its secretary has issued, in Spanish for now, a long letter which resumes all fo the above and can be read as a stern warning against the regime.
We must wonder what is the regime seeking. Can it be so clumsy? Is there some master plan behind?
I am afraid that the regime seeks an act of violence that it can provoke easily itself by sending under cover to the rallies Thursday delinquents that will pretend to pin on the opposition a violence that the regime will have started itself. That would explain all of the conspiracy theories blurted these past few days and the arrest of Voluntad Popular leadership which will presumably bear the brunt of the accusation. The ridicule for the regime's cause that Voluntad Popular would have committed the crimes AFTER their incarceration does not seem to have been considered. But that is not the point.
A desperate regime is building a narrative to justify its September repression in the eyes of the followers it still has. In short, the regime is preparing itself to cut loose from the civilized world and drive into oblivion the Venezuelan populations just as the Cuban one was pushed down to nothing within months of the arrival of Fidel in 1958. All seems to point out to that strategy, from ignoring the OAS to put in jail Voluntad Popular leadership, the most active in the streets, the one that apparently must be threatening the most chavismo.
Let's not forget that the loudest voices inside chavismo are the ones most likely to go to jail as soon as they set foot outside of the country. They have nothing to lose anymore. Hence...
Which does not mean they will succeed and as they fail, well...
Thursday, 18 August 2016
FARC soon at a Venezuelan arepera next to you
ABC journalist and bete noire of chavismo for all of the insider leaks he has been reporting, Emili Blasco, writes a piece in ABC about how the FARC is preparing its retreat to Venezuela once (before?) any peace treaty is signed with the Santos administration.
Since it is in Spanish a short summary follows, plus what I wrote on that already in 2012:
The argument of Blasco is that the closing of the Colombian Venezuelan border since last year was in fact an excuse to justify removing some of the military contingent there and allow thus for less surveillance. The objective would have been to ease the transfer from Colombia to Venezuela of some of the FARC weaponry, drug manufacturing and guerilla personnel that cannot remain safely inside Colombia once a peace treaty is signed (forget about a referendum on it and an eventual enforcing, these are another matter).
That may be true, Blasco makes a good case. I would add to his case that the delay ad patres in governor election due this December is a powerful argument in his favor, something he did not mention. Effectively, as chavismo is almost certain to lose most state houses, it is crucial for them to finish any resettlement of the FARC while finding ways to preserve at the very least the states where the FARC will find refuge. This is a tall order unless the regime decides to annul the elections or do a massive and obvious cheating, always a possibility with these desperate crazies. Then there is also the possibility of a negotiated election where the opposition gets all state houses except for those of Zulia, Guarico, Apure and Amazonas. It is not outlandish [sigh...]
In 2012 I did draw this map below where that whole chavo-narko-FARC strategy was put together (retaken in 2013).
There you have it.
The saddest part of it all is that the FARC as well as the regime are absolutely oblivious of the consequences for the population' suffering that such a resettlement would entail. There goes to tell you how soulless a narko system becomes. Let's not forget that Castro has always sponsored drug trafficking to democracies as a way to weaken them. In Venezuela he seems that he has succeeded and in Colombia he is getting a new start courtesy of Santos (who in addition of his weaknesses will likely face soon million of hunger refugees from Venezuela). As far as chavismo, Castro and the FARC are concerned, poverty and violence are a good tool to control the populace.
--------------------------------------
Hat tip for the Blasco article to my friend Fausta, always on top of such stuff.
Since it is in Spanish a short summary follows, plus what I wrote on that already in 2012:
The argument of Blasco is that the closing of the Colombian Venezuelan border since last year was in fact an excuse to justify removing some of the military contingent there and allow thus for less surveillance. The objective would have been to ease the transfer from Colombia to Venezuela of some of the FARC weaponry, drug manufacturing and guerilla personnel that cannot remain safely inside Colombia once a peace treaty is signed (forget about a referendum on it and an eventual enforcing, these are another matter).
That may be true, Blasco makes a good case. I would add to his case that the delay ad patres in governor election due this December is a powerful argument in his favor, something he did not mention. Effectively, as chavismo is almost certain to lose most state houses, it is crucial for them to finish any resettlement of the FARC while finding ways to preserve at the very least the states where the FARC will find refuge. This is a tall order unless the regime decides to annul the elections or do a massive and obvious cheating, always a possibility with these desperate crazies. Then there is also the possibility of a negotiated election where the opposition gets all state houses except for those of Zulia, Guarico, Apure and Amazonas. It is not outlandish [sigh...]
In 2012 I did draw this map below where that whole chavo-narko-FARC strategy was put together (retaken in 2013).
 |
| How chavismo plans to offer refuge to FARC. In light mauve the zones in Colombia where FARC and ELN concentrate before crossing over to Venezuela. |
There you have it.
The saddest part of it all is that the FARC as well as the regime are absolutely oblivious of the consequences for the population' suffering that such a resettlement would entail. There goes to tell you how soulless a narko system becomes. Let's not forget that Castro has always sponsored drug trafficking to democracies as a way to weaken them. In Venezuela he seems that he has succeeded and in Colombia he is getting a new start courtesy of Santos (who in addition of his weaknesses will likely face soon million of hunger refugees from Venezuela). As far as chavismo, Castro and the FARC are concerned, poverty and violence are a good tool to control the populace.
--------------------------------------
Hat tip for the Blasco article to my friend Fausta, always on top of such stuff.
Wednesday, 17 August 2016
Tales from the breadlines
Two short tales on food lines.
There are breadlines everyday in front of the bakeries that will be making bread. Not all do, some because they cannot deal with the mess and others because, well, they have no flour. The lines start forming around 11 AM or 5 PM. That is that.
The other day I was in El Recreo district and stuck in traffic I watched what is a short line. Yes, a short breadline. I have seen some that are 3, 4, 6 times as long as the one you can see in this Instagram video I posted. Being bored I did make a croquis of that line, to locate the picture below.
On other news, a tale from my cleaning lady.
Now she needs to go a get a number the day before her appointed day for shopping (note: for certain items you can only shop on the day that corresponds to your last number of your ID card). That line to get the number by itself lasts a couple of hours, at least, if you want to be sure to get a number. And then you still need to go early next day and do, at least, another couple of hours standing in line if you want to make sure supplies are not exhausted before your turn comes.
This is already bad enough but it gets worse. See, while they are in line people chat, get comfy, start exchanging phone numbers so they can text each other when things arrive. So far so good. But the bachaqueros, those people making a living out of buying and reselling what they get in line, have noticed. So they play the friendly game without passing for bachaqueros and THEN, when they happen to not get as many number line as they wished for, they start calling people and threaten them if they refuse to give up the number they got.
In other words, within the long line there is a now a surveillance network of bachaqueros that notice who are the weak links and when they do get a number. Then, voila, extortion on those poor friendly souls.
----------------
Added in proof: I just learned that the regime is now threatening to close/fine the bakeries that have lines outside. Apparently Maduro says that there is enough flour and that the bakers, in a giant conspiracy I suppose, want to force people in line to give bad propaganda to the regime.
Now I can die, I have seen it all.
There are breadlines everyday in front of the bakeries that will be making bread. Not all do, some because they cannot deal with the mess and others because, well, they have no flour. The lines start forming around 11 AM or 5 PM. That is that.
The other day I was in El Recreo district and stuck in traffic I watched what is a short line. Yes, a short breadline. I have seen some that are 3, 4, 6 times as long as the one you can see in this Instagram video I posted. Being bored I did make a croquis of that line, to locate the picture below.
 |
| This is the little tail on the map below where it says foto. |
On other news, a tale from my cleaning lady.
Now she needs to go a get a number the day before her appointed day for shopping (note: for certain items you can only shop on the day that corresponds to your last number of your ID card). That line to get the number by itself lasts a couple of hours, at least, if you want to be sure to get a number. And then you still need to go early next day and do, at least, another couple of hours standing in line if you want to make sure supplies are not exhausted before your turn comes.
This is already bad enough but it gets worse. See, while they are in line people chat, get comfy, start exchanging phone numbers so they can text each other when things arrive. So far so good. But the bachaqueros, those people making a living out of buying and reselling what they get in line, have noticed. So they play the friendly game without passing for bachaqueros and THEN, when they happen to not get as many number line as they wished for, they start calling people and threaten them if they refuse to give up the number they got.
In other words, within the long line there is a now a surveillance network of bachaqueros that notice who are the weak links and when they do get a number. Then, voila, extortion on those poor friendly souls.
----------------
Added in proof: I just learned that the regime is now threatening to close/fine the bakeries that have lines outside. Apparently Maduro says that there is enough flour and that the bakers, in a giant conspiracy I suppose, want to force people in line to give bad propaganda to the regime.
Now I can die, I have seen it all.
Tuesday, 16 August 2016
Esau would get a good deal from Jacob in Venezuela
The new minimum wage increase decreed by Maduro is of course a fraud. No need to insult the gentle reader reminding him or her that the inflation has already pre empted any increase Maduro may give us; and the relatively large but very insufficient increase will not solve the workers purchasing power problem while adding yet more fuel to inflation. Only chavistas do not know that, or worse, do not care about that.
The new minimum wage is officially 22,576 VEB. At the SICADI exchange of today we see that the VEB is at 645 to the USD. In short the minimum wage is officially 35 USD PER MONTH.
There goes the glorious bolivarian revolution in the name of workers.
And do not complain, I could have used the black market rate of 1,007 instead of 645 because that is the only one I can use to buy dollars with my 22,576 VEB. It would be, well, 22 USD. How people can live off such a paltry amount is a mystery beyond belief, less than 1 dollar a day.
Ah! but the well informed reader will tell me that I forgot about the food bonus!!!! That is right. And I will explain that next.
For reasons too long to explain Venezuela has a complicated system of severance payments. That is, when you fire someone, or they simply resign, you have to pay them X amount of money based on all the income that person has gotten while working for you. The trick here is how do you define income. One way the Venezuelan government, before Chavez already, found to go around ballooning severance sums was to give its employees bonuses not counted as regular income. The most creative way was to establish a food bonus for lower scale wages. First it was limited to large business. Then it spread to small business, then everyone got it, not only lower scale workers. Now, I have been informed that even as an associate in my business I could get fined if I did not receive that food bonus, something that I have refused to receive until now.
Chavismo in recent years has steadily been increasing the food bonus as a way of slowing down the amount of severance pay that the state today cannot meet anymore, by the way. The pay increase I refer above raised stupendously the food bonus to 42,480. Yes, that is right, the food bonus is now almost twice the basic monthly wage.
So why should I complain? Very simple: that food bonus comes through tickets or a bank card AND can only be used in food stores. Guess what? the worker may want to use part of that 42K to buy such things as public transportation to go to work or medicine for her children. And one of the few ways to make good on that 42K for cash is to go to certain grocery stores that will give you cash in exchange (illegal, of course) but at a 20% discount.
So there you go, no matter how positively you try to look at that minimum wage hike it is a fraud to the worker, its severance pay will be negatively affected and s/he can only buy food (which incidentally cannot be purchased through that food bonus from black market).
But it gets worse. Today I got from a relative in France a a tweet and a picture. The tweet is from Miro Popic, food editor at Tal Cual.
So about a pound of lentils in Venezuela costs 3.995 which at the SICADI in euro of 727 is 5,49 Euros. Why Euros? Look at the picture on the right on how much is a pound of lentils in France this week: 1.73 Euros.
Now you be kind and explain to me at which level this could possibly make sense. There is certainly a speculative factor from the merchant in Venezuela, no doubt. But it is not enough.
At any rate, with the new minimum wage 65,056 VEB, food bonus included, you can buy 8 kilos of lentils. That's all you will be eating that month, lentils, 86 grams per meal (and let's forget about cooking gas, water, etc... to prepare them).
I am sorry, but unfortunately such things cannot be made up........
The new minimum wage is officially 22,576 VEB. At the SICADI exchange of today we see that the VEB is at 645 to the USD. In short the minimum wage is officially 35 USD PER MONTH.
There goes the glorious bolivarian revolution in the name of workers.
And do not complain, I could have used the black market rate of 1,007 instead of 645 because that is the only one I can use to buy dollars with my 22,576 VEB. It would be, well, 22 USD. How people can live off such a paltry amount is a mystery beyond belief, less than 1 dollar a day.
Ah! but the well informed reader will tell me that I forgot about the food bonus!!!! That is right. And I will explain that next.
For reasons too long to explain Venezuela has a complicated system of severance payments. That is, when you fire someone, or they simply resign, you have to pay them X amount of money based on all the income that person has gotten while working for you. The trick here is how do you define income. One way the Venezuelan government, before Chavez already, found to go around ballooning severance sums was to give its employees bonuses not counted as regular income. The most creative way was to establish a food bonus for lower scale wages. First it was limited to large business. Then it spread to small business, then everyone got it, not only lower scale workers. Now, I have been informed that even as an associate in my business I could get fined if I did not receive that food bonus, something that I have refused to receive until now.
Chavismo in recent years has steadily been increasing the food bonus as a way of slowing down the amount of severance pay that the state today cannot meet anymore, by the way. The pay increase I refer above raised stupendously the food bonus to 42,480. Yes, that is right, the food bonus is now almost twice the basic monthly wage.
So why should I complain? Very simple: that food bonus comes through tickets or a bank card AND can only be used in food stores. Guess what? the worker may want to use part of that 42K to buy such things as public transportation to go to work or medicine for her children. And one of the few ways to make good on that 42K for cash is to go to certain grocery stores that will give you cash in exchange (illegal, of course) but at a 20% discount.
So there you go, no matter how positively you try to look at that minimum wage hike it is a fraud to the worker, its severance pay will be negatively affected and s/he can only buy food (which incidentally cannot be purchased through that food bonus from black market).
But it gets worse. Today I got from a relative in France a a tweet and a picture. The tweet is from Miro Popic, food editor at Tal Cual.
Bs.3.995 el 1/2 kg. de lentejas. Nuevo salario mínimo dará para 2.82 kg. al mes. pic.twitter.com/rut7ewJwTg— Miro Popic Editor (@miropopiceditor) 16 de agosto de 2016
 |
| Cheaper and yummier |
Now you be kind and explain to me at which level this could possibly make sense. There is certainly a speculative factor from the merchant in Venezuela, no doubt. But it is not enough.
At any rate, with the new minimum wage 65,056 VEB, food bonus included, you can buy 8 kilos of lentils. That's all you will be eating that month, lentils, 86 grams per meal (and let's forget about cooking gas, water, etc... to prepare them).
I am sorry, but unfortunately such things cannot be made up........
Sunday, 14 August 2016
Me and Hillary
Around US election time I allow myself a post where I express my opinion. I am of those who think that foreigners should have a say in the US election since we will all pay the consequences of that vote. But of course, there goes another utopia. Also, I get a lot of flack from such posts, mostly from right wingers that understand any critical view of Republican candidates as pure and simple communism making Chavez too good for me, and... (more follows from puffed red faces that I can easily imagine from the comments).
Not for me at this point in life to be deterred by such comments, the more so that blogging has become an occasional hobby for me. So there I go.
FIRST! Caveat! I was a Hillary fan in 2008 so do not expect me to have changed over these last 8 years. Search my blog or blog comments if you wish, it is all there, somewhere.
Yes, I know where Hillary does come from and I NEVER liked Bill. But she is not Bill and already in 2008 I thought she was one of the best prepared and more thoughtful candidate for the US presidency. Preparation matters unless you are like Reagan and are willing and able to surround yourself with people that know more than you do without taking umbrage. Since politicians willing and able to run for the presidency are prime donne then I shall privilege preparation over character. They are all flawed anyway, and Reagans are rare, the US having had only two of those in the XX century. I suppose perhaps that coming from Venezuela the little pecadillos of Hillary do not mean much for me, or that my French half has learned long ago that dubious private life does not mean bad governance.
It may come as a surprise to you that at first I was looking with interest at Trump as a candidate. After all, he was a businessman, of dubious qualities perhaps but more businessman than any president in recent memory besides Bush senior. In a country with such a division or power and entrenched instituions Trump did not scare me. Then again, I was coming from the Venezuelan experience.
It was thus with a great surprise that I heard the vehement condemnation of my US friends who I visited days before the Iowa caucus. To the point that I did not even dare to express my surprise and preferred to remain silent, playing the ignorance card. But they have been proven right and as far as I am concerned Trump would be an unmitigated disaster for the US presidency. People would miss Nixon and Carter after a Trump presidency.
I can say that because I have been following this primary cycle closer than the usual. Enough to be scared about what is going on in the US.
Bernie Sanders is a geriatric socialist that has appealed to a new me generation who think that everything is their due. Plus the assorted white guilty left of the Democratic Party. Fortunately the real left, the one that needs to mark time clocks at work and knows how hard things are did not follow Sanders and stayed with Clinton. Yes, Latinos and African American are the real social left in the US, not the Joe Kennedy type that happily deals with Venezuela or the intellectual fraud like Sanders who refuses to condemn the Cuban regime.
And then there is Trump.
I do not want to take the easy way and put Trump in the same bag as Chavez. Trump is more dangerous than Chavez but he would be less detrimental to the US than what Chavez was. What Trump and Chavez have in common is a deep narcissistic disorder. But each one is affected by it in a different manner. Trump just wants to be president and have is face and hair carved into some mountain. Chavez wanted to change the world for his glory. I have no doubt that if by mistake Trump were to be elected, within 6 months enough in the GOP would unite with the Democrats to impeach him. Yes, I trust that much American Institutions.
The danger in Trump lies elsewhere, and I am not even thinking about the nuclear red button. Trump is a demagogue who gets power form dividing society. He preys on the insecurity of people and he is dangerously gathering around him all the social resentment that exists in the US. If he were less tone deaf about latinos and blacks he would be already unstoppable the way Chavez was. That is what they truly have in common, the capacity to unify behind their banner all the alienated sectors of society, all of those who want revenge rather than reform. Once this is achieved the damage is done, the society is fractured and healing takes decades. I know what I am talking about, I am living the consequences of it in Venezuela where the embers of chavismo are everyday more outspoken about the need to silence people like me.
What Trump is doing is try to unite behind himself the red necks, white trash, bible thumpers, creationists, chronic jobless, the envious and the frustrated, those that cannot associate their failure with their very own character flaws. For this last group Trump is particularly effective because he forgives their sins since all their troubles come from Muslims, Latinos, immigrants, etc, but never for their own errors. True, some of their problems are chronic to the US society, but not all. We need to be thankful that the US is a multiracial society and that no politician can truly unite behind himself all these groups of deep social resentment. Chavez was able to do it because Venezuela was a deeply mixed country that Chavez tried to turn into one of whites versus non white. He succeeded, until hunger came.
The Republican party had it coming. This is not anymore the party of Lincoln. Not remotely. The Jesse Helms and Southern Republicans have preached the me or you gospel and now the chicken Trump has come home to roost. We are seeing under our own eyes how the Republican party is unraveling, how ethics are trampled everyday for the sake of expediency and a tidbit of supposed power. How easy it is to speak Benghazi instead of Wall Building!
But this post is long enough already. My only sorrow is that the US of A has been able to produce such a mediocre crop of presidential candidates. And do not let me start on people that I consider worse than Trump, like Cruz. I do like Clinton but this time I would vote for her because there is no other option. She is not free to set an agenda like she was in 2008: now she has to secure Obama inheritance whether she likes it being irrelevant. And Trump and Sanders certainly have saddled her with chains that will be heavy on her administration. At least I am certain that she is is going to be better for Venezuela and Latin America than Trump. By far since Trump at best only knows where the Miss comes from.
I did hear the Libertarian ticket formed by two ex republican governors, which indicates to me that Libertarians are trying to go mainstream now. Whatever. I liked them enough if truth be told. If I were voting I would vote for them once I am sure that Trump will not be elected. But as long as there is a chance for Trump to make it, I will be rooting for Hillary Clinton.
Meanwhile I do hope that there are enough Republicans that will do the decent thing and at least cross their straight down ballots with Hillary or the Libertarians. Guys, you screwed up with your hysterical opposition to Obama, You even helped into creating a situation where Hillary had to go more to the left than what she would naturally be. Now it is time to pay the Piper and save what can be saved of your party, enduring for penance at least 4 more years of Obama and a Supreme Court locked in Liberal mode for at least a decade and a half. But heck guys, you have only yourself to blame for that. Try at least to retain the House and then learn to negotiate for everybody's sake. You can negotiate with Hillary more than you could ever negotiate with Trump, trust me on that one. I am coming out of 17 years of Chavez, I know a Chavez when I see one, even with a red wig. Narcissistic personalities never negotiate, they just gain time so they can screw you later, and better.
Not for me at this point in life to be deterred by such comments, the more so that blogging has become an occasional hobby for me. So there I go.
FIRST! Caveat! I was a Hillary fan in 2008 so do not expect me to have changed over these last 8 years. Search my blog or blog comments if you wish, it is all there, somewhere.
Yes, I know where Hillary does come from and I NEVER liked Bill. But she is not Bill and already in 2008 I thought she was one of the best prepared and more thoughtful candidate for the US presidency. Preparation matters unless you are like Reagan and are willing and able to surround yourself with people that know more than you do without taking umbrage. Since politicians willing and able to run for the presidency are prime donne then I shall privilege preparation over character. They are all flawed anyway, and Reagans are rare, the US having had only two of those in the XX century. I suppose perhaps that coming from Venezuela the little pecadillos of Hillary do not mean much for me, or that my French half has learned long ago that dubious private life does not mean bad governance.
It may come as a surprise to you that at first I was looking with interest at Trump as a candidate. After all, he was a businessman, of dubious qualities perhaps but more businessman than any president in recent memory besides Bush senior. In a country with such a division or power and entrenched instituions Trump did not scare me. Then again, I was coming from the Venezuelan experience.
It was thus with a great surprise that I heard the vehement condemnation of my US friends who I visited days before the Iowa caucus. To the point that I did not even dare to express my surprise and preferred to remain silent, playing the ignorance card. But they have been proven right and as far as I am concerned Trump would be an unmitigated disaster for the US presidency. People would miss Nixon and Carter after a Trump presidency.
I can say that because I have been following this primary cycle closer than the usual. Enough to be scared about what is going on in the US.
Bernie Sanders is a geriatric socialist that has appealed to a new me generation who think that everything is their due. Plus the assorted white guilty left of the Democratic Party. Fortunately the real left, the one that needs to mark time clocks at work and knows how hard things are did not follow Sanders and stayed with Clinton. Yes, Latinos and African American are the real social left in the US, not the Joe Kennedy type that happily deals with Venezuela or the intellectual fraud like Sanders who refuses to condemn the Cuban regime.
And then there is Trump.
I do not want to take the easy way and put Trump in the same bag as Chavez. Trump is more dangerous than Chavez but he would be less detrimental to the US than what Chavez was. What Trump and Chavez have in common is a deep narcissistic disorder. But each one is affected by it in a different manner. Trump just wants to be president and have is face and hair carved into some mountain. Chavez wanted to change the world for his glory. I have no doubt that if by mistake Trump were to be elected, within 6 months enough in the GOP would unite with the Democrats to impeach him. Yes, I trust that much American Institutions.
The danger in Trump lies elsewhere, and I am not even thinking about the nuclear red button. Trump is a demagogue who gets power form dividing society. He preys on the insecurity of people and he is dangerously gathering around him all the social resentment that exists in the US. If he were less tone deaf about latinos and blacks he would be already unstoppable the way Chavez was. That is what they truly have in common, the capacity to unify behind their banner all the alienated sectors of society, all of those who want revenge rather than reform. Once this is achieved the damage is done, the society is fractured and healing takes decades. I know what I am talking about, I am living the consequences of it in Venezuela where the embers of chavismo are everyday more outspoken about the need to silence people like me.
What Trump is doing is try to unite behind himself the red necks, white trash, bible thumpers, creationists, chronic jobless, the envious and the frustrated, those that cannot associate their failure with their very own character flaws. For this last group Trump is particularly effective because he forgives their sins since all their troubles come from Muslims, Latinos, immigrants, etc, but never for their own errors. True, some of their problems are chronic to the US society, but not all. We need to be thankful that the US is a multiracial society and that no politician can truly unite behind himself all these groups of deep social resentment. Chavez was able to do it because Venezuela was a deeply mixed country that Chavez tried to turn into one of whites versus non white. He succeeded, until hunger came.
The Republican party had it coming. This is not anymore the party of Lincoln. Not remotely. The Jesse Helms and Southern Republicans have preached the me or you gospel and now the chicken Trump has come home to roost. We are seeing under our own eyes how the Republican party is unraveling, how ethics are trampled everyday for the sake of expediency and a tidbit of supposed power. How easy it is to speak Benghazi instead of Wall Building!
But this post is long enough already. My only sorrow is that the US of A has been able to produce such a mediocre crop of presidential candidates. And do not let me start on people that I consider worse than Trump, like Cruz. I do like Clinton but this time I would vote for her because there is no other option. She is not free to set an agenda like she was in 2008: now she has to secure Obama inheritance whether she likes it being irrelevant. And Trump and Sanders certainly have saddled her with chains that will be heavy on her administration. At least I am certain that she is is going to be better for Venezuela and Latin America than Trump. By far since Trump at best only knows where the Miss comes from.
I did hear the Libertarian ticket formed by two ex republican governors, which indicates to me that Libertarians are trying to go mainstream now. Whatever. I liked them enough if truth be told. If I were voting I would vote for them once I am sure that Trump will not be elected. But as long as there is a chance for Trump to make it, I will be rooting for Hillary Clinton.
Meanwhile I do hope that there are enough Republicans that will do the decent thing and at least cross their straight down ballots with Hillary or the Libertarians. Guys, you screwed up with your hysterical opposition to Obama, You even helped into creating a situation where Hillary had to go more to the left than what she would naturally be. Now it is time to pay the Piper and save what can be saved of your party, enduring for penance at least 4 more years of Obama and a Supreme Court locked in Liberal mode for at least a decade and a half. But heck guys, you have only yourself to blame for that. Try at least to retain the House and then learn to negotiate for everybody's sake. You can negotiate with Hillary more than you could ever negotiate with Trump, trust me on that one. I am coming out of 17 years of Chavez, I know a Chavez when I see one, even with a red wig. Narcissistic personalities never negotiate, they just gain time so they can screw you later, and better.
Wednesday, 10 August 2016
No recall election in 2016: one hidden motive
As a supplement of yesterday's post where I explained why there would not be a Recall Election , or any election for that matter, we got some declarations today that definitely rule out a recall election in 2016. That is, these declarations technically do not rule out such a referendum but they describe very well that chavismo simply will not accept a recall election before January 10, 2017. After, we'll see but do not get your hopes high and at any rate it would be useless, ta-ta...
Now let's look at what is "new" today. Nothing really, just more clarity, so to speak.
First, we had one of the electoral board CNE rectors coming out to defend the speech of Lucena yesterday. Sandra Oblitas repeated all the same crap that they cannot be pressured, that they respected all the rules (it is a matter of public knowledge that this is a lie), etc... But what is important here is that she took a potshot at Rondon dissent yesterday. That hinted at a surprise for the regime 4 CNE agents. The dissent was hard enough, surprising enough for them that they sent Oblitas for some desperate damage control. When I mean desperate I do not mean this as a mark of them feeling threatened, but that their lies were so easily exposed that they had to attack Rondon lacking any other argument.
At any rate, the threat that Oblitas also mentioned that the MUD would be outlawed is the favorite theme of Jorge Rodriguez, mayor of Caracas West and former real boss of the CNE at the time of the first fraud systems circa 2003. I am not going to comment on what is now the calculated hysteria Rodriguez exhibits as his assigned role (could it be otherwise, that he was assigned such a role?). The point of commenting him is that he said that the earliest date for any referendum is late February 2017. This is interesting. First, by late February the opposition will have lost any interest in the referendum and something else will be at the forefront. Second, his subconscious admits that there will be an election next year and the only one I can think of is the governor election (which are due in December 2016 and are quietly forgotten by the regime). That is, the regime knows that sooner than later it will have to face a poll of some sort that it will not win.
What Rodriguez truly hints at is that the failure to hold the recall election this year will be seen by the country as a political defeat and thus they will gravitate back toward chavismo as the only force available. That is exactly what Maduro hinted at last night in one of his vile cadenas (in English here). This poor and vulgar soul had the temerity to gloat over the failure of the opposition to collect the signatures for the recall vote on time. Apparently he is blissfully unaware that no sitting president in Venezuelan recent history has polled as low as he does. Were he aware he would have the good sense not to gloat while his regime is so blatantly cheating.
Certainly the coordination between all these post Lucena declarations is no accident. However the rather hysterical combination of outburst indicates to me something else. The regime is not even intent on postponing an eventual recall election, what the regime truly is seeking is to stop the collection of signatures. By discouraging such activity the regime does not hope to void the recall election (for this it has the high court annulation of the opposition party in the works) but it hopes that were the signature collection to become a must the 20% would not be passed too badly. The problem for the regime is that the way things are developing there will not be 20% signing to recall Maduro: there will be more people signing for his recall than actually voted for him. And this political disaster is simply too much for chavismo.
At least if the recall is held after January 2017 there is the hope that discouragement of the populace will yield no more than, say, 30% signatures of the electoral body. Enough to oust Maduro in a vote but not enough for regime change.
The opposition truly has its work cut out.
Now let's look at what is "new" today. Nothing really, just more clarity, so to speak.
First, we had one of the electoral board CNE rectors coming out to defend the speech of Lucena yesterday. Sandra Oblitas repeated all the same crap that they cannot be pressured, that they respected all the rules (it is a matter of public knowledge that this is a lie), etc... But what is important here is that she took a potshot at Rondon dissent yesterday. That hinted at a surprise for the regime 4 CNE agents. The dissent was hard enough, surprising enough for them that they sent Oblitas for some desperate damage control. When I mean desperate I do not mean this as a mark of them feeling threatened, but that their lies were so easily exposed that they had to attack Rondon lacking any other argument.
At any rate, the threat that Oblitas also mentioned that the MUD would be outlawed is the favorite theme of Jorge Rodriguez, mayor of Caracas West and former real boss of the CNE at the time of the first fraud systems circa 2003. I am not going to comment on what is now the calculated hysteria Rodriguez exhibits as his assigned role (could it be otherwise, that he was assigned such a role?). The point of commenting him is that he said that the earliest date for any referendum is late February 2017. This is interesting. First, by late February the opposition will have lost any interest in the referendum and something else will be at the forefront. Second, his subconscious admits that there will be an election next year and the only one I can think of is the governor election (which are due in December 2016 and are quietly forgotten by the regime). That is, the regime knows that sooner than later it will have to face a poll of some sort that it will not win.
What Rodriguez truly hints at is that the failure to hold the recall election this year will be seen by the country as a political defeat and thus they will gravitate back toward chavismo as the only force available. That is exactly what Maduro hinted at last night in one of his vile cadenas (in English here). This poor and vulgar soul had the temerity to gloat over the failure of the opposition to collect the signatures for the recall vote on time. Apparently he is blissfully unaware that no sitting president in Venezuelan recent history has polled as low as he does. Were he aware he would have the good sense not to gloat while his regime is so blatantly cheating.
Certainly the coordination between all these post Lucena declarations is no accident. However the rather hysterical combination of outburst indicates to me something else. The regime is not even intent on postponing an eventual recall election, what the regime truly is seeking is to stop the collection of signatures. By discouraging such activity the regime does not hope to void the recall election (for this it has the high court annulation of the opposition party in the works) but it hopes that were the signature collection to become a must the 20% would not be passed too badly. The problem for the regime is that the way things are developing there will not be 20% signing to recall Maduro: there will be more people signing for his recall than actually voted for him. And this political disaster is simply too much for chavismo.
At least if the recall is held after January 2017 there is the hope that discouragement of the populace will yield no more than, say, 30% signatures of the electoral body. Enough to oust Maduro in a vote but not enough for regime change.
The opposition truly has its work cut out.
Tuesday, 9 August 2016
Recall Election all but over
Today the head of the electoral board, CNE, Tibisay Lucena announced that "if all goes well" the gathering of the 20% signature from the registered electors could take place late October. TRANSLATION: even if the 20% is gathered late October there will not be enough time to fend off legal challenges so that the Recall Election is held before January 10 2017. If the recall election is held after that date and even if 90% vote to oust Maduro, his serving vice-president will replace in office to complete the two years in the presidential term.
In other words the regime has announced that there is no way they will risk a presidential election before December 2018. And if you still do not get it, the current cabinet of musical chairs will remain presiding over the country until January 2019 at the earliest.
I will add two crusty details. Some inside the CNE have announced publicly that the MUD will be invalidated soon as a political party (which it never was) and as such their petition for a recall election is not valid. That is, the regime, just in case, has still a treacherous tool to annul the late October signature collection. The second detail is that the lone opposition sitting at the CNE board, Rondon, broke protocol and has refused to attend Tibisay Lucena announcement and instead emitted his strong declaration of dissent separately where among other things he states that there is no reason to wait for more than 38 days to gather the signatures. In short: Rondon was forced to emit a political declaration to counter what was a political declaration from Lucena, because pushing the collection to late October is indeed a political maneuver to annul the recall election.
Now, the kind regular reader may recall that on July 20 I wrote that there would not be a recall election, nor any election as long as the regime did not take the political decision to begin a transition. When, and if, such a decision is taken then there will be an election whose nature will depend on which election is less damaging for the political survival of the regime. It could be for example a presidential election following the simultaneous resignation of Maduro and his vice president. It could be a constituent assembly. It could be a trivial referendum on something justifying a change. It could be a plebiscite establishing a military regime Thailand like. It could be a declaration that a revolution does not require any more competitive elections, a la Castro-Cuba style. It could even be, why not, a Recall Election. Today's declaration of Lucena should be interpreted as such, as a delay until a final decision is taken. For all that we know next week she can decide that, considering new arguments, signatures will be collected mid September. Or never.
Let's keep in mind that the order not to have elections comes from Cuba who cannot risk to lose the Venezuelan stipend of oil that Cuba resells on the spot market. As such even the governor elections scheduled for December will not be held: such elections should have already been formally announced to prepare for them. The CNE, as far as we know, is not working on these mandatory December elections where all polls predict that the regime could lose as much as 100% of the states it holds currently. No regime can survive such an electoral loss, even a Cuban sponsored regime. As such the order also includes to postpone the governor elections.
So, the question tonight is what the opposition MUD will do? I am afraid that civil unrest is the next step. I do not see any other way out. And I am afraid that this is EXACTLY what the regime wants. It all depends on which kind of civil unrest is planned and how it is executed.
The very last "peaceful" weapon left for the National Assembly is a budget discussion which would force the regime into dissolving the National Assembly. But then you would need to elect a new assembly which result for the regime could be even worse than last December.
So civil unrest, here we go!
In other words the regime has announced that there is no way they will risk a presidential election before December 2018. And if you still do not get it, the current cabinet of musical chairs will remain presiding over the country until January 2019 at the earliest.
I will add two crusty details. Some inside the CNE have announced publicly that the MUD will be invalidated soon as a political party (which it never was) and as such their petition for a recall election is not valid. That is, the regime, just in case, has still a treacherous tool to annul the late October signature collection. The second detail is that the lone opposition sitting at the CNE board, Rondon, broke protocol and has refused to attend Tibisay Lucena announcement and instead emitted his strong declaration of dissent separately where among other things he states that there is no reason to wait for more than 38 days to gather the signatures. In short: Rondon was forced to emit a political declaration to counter what was a political declaration from Lucena, because pushing the collection to late October is indeed a political maneuver to annul the recall election.
Now, the kind regular reader may recall that on July 20 I wrote that there would not be a recall election, nor any election as long as the regime did not take the political decision to begin a transition. When, and if, such a decision is taken then there will be an election whose nature will depend on which election is less damaging for the political survival of the regime. It could be for example a presidential election following the simultaneous resignation of Maduro and his vice president. It could be a constituent assembly. It could be a trivial referendum on something justifying a change. It could be a plebiscite establishing a military regime Thailand like. It could be a declaration that a revolution does not require any more competitive elections, a la Castro-Cuba style. It could even be, why not, a Recall Election. Today's declaration of Lucena should be interpreted as such, as a delay until a final decision is taken. For all that we know next week she can decide that, considering new arguments, signatures will be collected mid September. Or never.
Let's keep in mind that the order not to have elections comes from Cuba who cannot risk to lose the Venezuelan stipend of oil that Cuba resells on the spot market. As such even the governor elections scheduled for December will not be held: such elections should have already been formally announced to prepare for them. The CNE, as far as we know, is not working on these mandatory December elections where all polls predict that the regime could lose as much as 100% of the states it holds currently. No regime can survive such an electoral loss, even a Cuban sponsored regime. As such the order also includes to postpone the governor elections.
So, the question tonight is what the opposition MUD will do? I am afraid that civil unrest is the next step. I do not see any other way out. And I am afraid that this is EXACTLY what the regime wants. It all depends on which kind of civil unrest is planned and how it is executed.
The very last "peaceful" weapon left for the National Assembly is a budget discussion which would force the regime into dissolving the National Assembly. But then you would need to elect a new assembly which result for the regime could be even worse than last December.
So civil unrest, here we go!
Sunday, 7 August 2016
Narko-Radikalismus
When everything fails, repeat it all. In particular the parts that clearly are rotten at the root.
The paradox in covering Venezuela lately is that change is so continuous that it is enough to write about tendency. The rest are details quickly swept under the rug, no need to write about it unless you have time on your hands or are paid for that (lucky you!).
Roughly the story.
*Maduro cannot provide food.
*He names his minister of defense, Padrino, as food tsar, making him a de facto co president.
*Then, as an after thought he decides that it may have been a mistake to give such leeway to the military so he changes three of the non military cabinet position to set in three of the most radical elements he can find.
*Add to this that in the background the few ministers that have suggested change have been immediately shut down by radicals pols not inside of the current cabinet.
Explanations?
*In the previous entry I explained why the regime cannot get out of the currency control policy as its whole graft power based structure will fall in weeks. As such it does not matter who Maduro names as his co president, that befuddled person will not be able to bring diner to the Venezuelan table as the cupboards are empty and stores stopped deliveries until they get paid.
*Surely Padrino must have known that and he took the job for some other reason. Whatever the reasons are for him to become co-president (real president?) he needs to act fast because within two weeks of his nomination nothing has improved. Which were the reasons? One is that the regime being a military sponsored dictatorship it is just natural that the military start assuming a more public role. A novel XXI century military dictatorship if you like. A velvet coup some have said.
*Alternatively it is possible that he military have decided to get get rid of Maduro and the ascension of Padrino is the first sign of a bona fide transition (towards democracy? open dictatorship? but maduroless for sure). Thus the reaction of Maduro to surround himself of radicals he is used to as a counterweight to Padrino. The real question would thus be how come Padrino did allow those changes.
It is important to note that one of the ministers fired was the lone "pragmatic" one who suggested that currency control had served its course. He was replaced by a communist and that is that (Carlos Faria). It is even more important to note that Ricardo Molina was brought back from the National Assembly to occupy one of the posts where money and graft opportunities abound. He was the radical firing any ministry worker that was not red enough to his taste. But do not think that he is a pure radical: nepotism is also his trade mark as it is apparently the case from Nicaragua to Maduro's wife Cilia Flores. Mouth on the left, privileges on the right, they all are.
And in case you do not get the point that Maduro has no better idea but to veer left/radical for his own protection by hiring ideologues that will be willing to take the fall for him, he also hired as interior minister Nestor Reverol, former Nazional Guard head. The problem here is that Reverol has just been indicted in the US for drug trafficking. Clearly, Maduro knows that Reverol loyalty is assured since there is nowhere else for him to go.
Why this whole charade of pursuing policies that have failed, making them harsher if possible and have drug traffickers hired for protection?
Besides the obvious, that Miraflores Palace is a nest of scoundrels, assorted thugs and mafiosi, and thus they relate to what they already know, we need to look elsewhere.
This is a strategy to gain time, to intimidate and have people beyond the pale do whatever it takes to ensure Maduro's survival, even if it is for a previous few additional months.
The final question becomes thus who can possibly be so desperate to accept the utter ruin of Venezuela?
Blaming this on people like Diosdado Cabello is not enough, After all someone must have pointed out to him that sanguinary tyrants that die in their beds like Stalin are less frequent than those who meet less settled endings. People like Diosdado are hysterically radical as a way to force unacceptable conditions in an eventual negotiation.
So, who really pushes Maduro to such radicalization, harbinger of disaster without any historical exception? Only someone who will not be directly affected by the eventual collapse of the regime; or at least that will be far enough from ground zero when the day comes. There is only one candidate that fits the bill and that is Cuba and the Castros. By forcing their creature Maduro to ravage the country to its last penny to support Cuba they know the regime dooms itself and any political future it may have thereafter. But they do not care, they need that extra little bit of money to bridge the gap until they finish negotiating with the US, Europe and even China.
Only a regime as vile as the Cuban one can prod Maduro into doing what he is doing these days. Then again the Castros have a long experience in starving people to death.
Roughly the story.
*Maduro cannot provide food.
*He names his minister of defense, Padrino, as food tsar, making him a de facto co president.
*Then, as an after thought he decides that it may have been a mistake to give such leeway to the military so he changes three of the non military cabinet position to set in three of the most radical elements he can find.
*Add to this that in the background the few ministers that have suggested change have been immediately shut down by radicals pols not inside of the current cabinet.
Explanations?
*In the previous entry I explained why the regime cannot get out of the currency control policy as its whole graft power based structure will fall in weeks. As such it does not matter who Maduro names as his co president, that befuddled person will not be able to bring diner to the Venezuelan table as the cupboards are empty and stores stopped deliveries until they get paid.
*Surely Padrino must have known that and he took the job for some other reason. Whatever the reasons are for him to become co-president (real president?) he needs to act fast because within two weeks of his nomination nothing has improved. Which were the reasons? One is that the regime being a military sponsored dictatorship it is just natural that the military start assuming a more public role. A novel XXI century military dictatorship if you like. A velvet coup some have said.
*Alternatively it is possible that he military have decided to get get rid of Maduro and the ascension of Padrino is the first sign of a bona fide transition (towards democracy? open dictatorship? but maduroless for sure). Thus the reaction of Maduro to surround himself of radicals he is used to as a counterweight to Padrino. The real question would thus be how come Padrino did allow those changes.
It is important to note that one of the ministers fired was the lone "pragmatic" one who suggested that currency control had served its course. He was replaced by a communist and that is that (Carlos Faria). It is even more important to note that Ricardo Molina was brought back from the National Assembly to occupy one of the posts where money and graft opportunities abound. He was the radical firing any ministry worker that was not red enough to his taste. But do not think that he is a pure radical: nepotism is also his trade mark as it is apparently the case from Nicaragua to Maduro's wife Cilia Flores. Mouth on the left, privileges on the right, they all are.
And in case you do not get the point that Maduro has no better idea but to veer left/radical for his own protection by hiring ideologues that will be willing to take the fall for him, he also hired as interior minister Nestor Reverol, former Nazional Guard head. The problem here is that Reverol has just been indicted in the US for drug trafficking. Clearly, Maduro knows that Reverol loyalty is assured since there is nowhere else for him to go.
Why this whole charade of pursuing policies that have failed, making them harsher if possible and have drug traffickers hired for protection?
Besides the obvious, that Miraflores Palace is a nest of scoundrels, assorted thugs and mafiosi, and thus they relate to what they already know, we need to look elsewhere.
This is a strategy to gain time, to intimidate and have people beyond the pale do whatever it takes to ensure Maduro's survival, even if it is for a previous few additional months.
The final question becomes thus who can possibly be so desperate to accept the utter ruin of Venezuela?
Blaming this on people like Diosdado Cabello is not enough, After all someone must have pointed out to him that sanguinary tyrants that die in their beds like Stalin are less frequent than those who meet less settled endings. People like Diosdado are hysterically radical as a way to force unacceptable conditions in an eventual negotiation.
So, who really pushes Maduro to such radicalization, harbinger of disaster without any historical exception? Only someone who will not be directly affected by the eventual collapse of the regime; or at least that will be far enough from ground zero when the day comes. There is only one candidate that fits the bill and that is Cuba and the Castros. By forcing their creature Maduro to ravage the country to its last penny to support Cuba they know the regime dooms itself and any political future it may have thereafter. But they do not care, they need that extra little bit of money to bridge the gap until they finish negotiating with the US, Europe and even China.
Only a regime as vile as the Cuban one can prod Maduro into doing what he is doing these days. Then again the Castros have a long experience in starving people to death.
Corruption creativity
Two short posts this week end, for your reading pleasure. The first one on corruption latest updates.
The current crisis cannot be solved because the change in economic policies would result in the recognition that the robolución was a gigantic fraud. And I am not even discussing those who would go to jail. The point is that these people are not going to jeopardize their power or income. And yet these measures are possible without immediately questioning their power.
The first measures, not enough to solve the crisis but a must, are simple: stop sending Cuba its colonial stipend; remove price control and replace it with cash stipend to the populations at risk; rein in somewhat corruption so that at least a larger percentage of the state income goes to food and medicine purchase. Not that difficult, no? Not only these measures are not even broached but corruption is worse than ever as there is less to steal.
For example we have been offered a deal on DICOM dollars. Our contact would approve a certain sum every week so we can start paying our debts slowly, or at least purchase spare parts and the like. In exchange we need to give them 25% of what we get. That is, once we got the USD transferred to our account outside the country we are supposed to transfer 25% to a given account of a front man. Needless to say that this can only be done through the very opaque state banking system.
You would say "Daniel, that's not too bad and there is no other way to get foreign currency. Go for it!". But there is of course a catch. Once we sum up our expenses and the 25% "commission" the few USD we would get are not even 20% below the black market rate! That is, I have in hand the proof that DICOM is just a tool for the regime to skim the private business still dysfunctionally working (and willing to pay the "mark up"). If in the middle of a national starvation and disease crisis the regime is unable to let go, even if temporarily, arbitration, then there is nothing to expect.
Note: clearly if the market is accepting a value so close to the black market value, then there is no need pretend that the bolivar value is not 1000 to the dollar.
Note: clearly if the market is accepting a value so close to the black market value, then there is no need pretend that the bolivar value is not 1000 to the dollar.
Another corruption business model updating.
We have had recently "brokers" from Miami and Panama trying to short us on the foreign business we represent. They want them to sell and ship directly to them in Panama or Florida with the excuse that they have a client with access to foreign currency guaranteed. Since they are the ones that "found the client in Venezuela with dollars in hand" they want a commission from our provider. In exchange our providers would be paid directly in cash. No need for paperwork. Then the someone in Venezuela that has the approved USD would buy the lot from the "broker" at a mystery gross overprice (we have been offered our share if we wanted to go that way or at least shut up). It is all squared up by the "broker" and there is no need to go through decent but currency impaired intermediaries like us that, God forbid, would charge the market price. I let you ponder the multiple consequences of such schemes.
We have had recently "brokers" from Miami and Panama trying to short us on the foreign business we represent. They want them to sell and ship directly to them in Panama or Florida with the excuse that they have a client with access to foreign currency guaranteed. Since they are the ones that "found the client in Venezuela with dollars in hand" they want a commission from our provider. In exchange our providers would be paid directly in cash. No need for paperwork. Then the someone in Venezuela that has the approved USD would buy the lot from the "broker" at a mystery gross overprice (we have been offered our share if we wanted to go that way or at least shut up). It is all squared up by the "broker" and there is no need to go through decent but currency impaired intermediaries like us that, God forbid, would charge the market price. I let you ponder the multiple consequences of such schemes.
I will just let you know that we have a pretty good idea of who that broker client is and they are, of course, tightly associated with the regime. Also, this makes sense for the "client" since the client will 1) get its share of the overprice paid to the broker, and 2) assuming that the client imports all of it, it will be more than its needs and he could resell enough of it at the black market rate to pay what corresponds to its own needs (we have advised our partners to stay clear of such "brokers").
So there you go, as long as currency control persists in the hands of these people there is nothing that can be done to improve the lot of my fellow countrymen. Regime change is the lone solution.
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