The official 2013 VNV municipal election post

I suppose I should not break a long and on occasion distinguished electoral number crunching tradition. Even though elections have become a test of will rather than any democratic exercise it still matters that we look at the electoral considerations and perspectives. Even if diffidently.   Thus this general and as brief as possible unique electoral post about what are not necessarily the main races to watch but rather those that should confirm the trend as to the waning of chavismo. Outside, of course, the ever present crass electoral fraud.


The conditions

The municipal elections of December 8 have turned out to become a referendum on Maduro's tenure.  It should not have been like this of course, since we are supposed to vote for the guy that we think is better at fixing potholes and picking up the garbage. But in a country where a mass expects only goodies and another mass resent populism and the accompanying sectarianism you cannot expect anything else but plebiscitary polarization, the more so that the Maduro "election" of last April is now established as fraudulent by any impartial observer.

The electoral board has done its homework. The Maduro camp is amply favored, from gerrymandering of many a council district, to an absolute blind eye on power abuse, from using the resources of the state as if nothing to legally bar as many candidates as possible that could win a given district away from chavismo. In addition the flaws amply documented last April, from dead people voting to guarantees that the vote will be secret have been ignored. The CNE is more than ever the Ministry of Chavistas to be Reelected.

Yet we need to go and vote. Firstly, it is either voting or taking a gun and start a guerrilla warfare. Voting does not imply meek acceptance of adverse fraudulent results, but if you do not bother to vote you cannot complain afterwards. So we need to have the election stolen from us in order to be allowed to bitch about it. It may be unfair but this is the way things work in the real world.

Secondly the situation is not that desperate. After all, the more we vote, the more we set up systems to defend our vote, the more difficult it is for the regime to cheat. We need to force the regime to go to an outright open vote stealing to have international opinion become less complacent. Not that they will send Marines or Legionaires, but no democrat will want to be seen with a fraud. In case you have not noticed it, Maduro is only received by his pariah colleagues, real democrats limit as much as possible exposure to the post Chavez cancer.

What I am trying to say here is that the nature of the CNE fraud is to improve the chavismo numbers by somewhere close to 5%. That is, the day chavismo gets in real life less than 45% it will not be able to claim a majority and the CNE will have no option but to announce that the opposition has 50,1% or more. Which would mean that it got at least 55% . If the real numbers are never announced it will not matter, the psychological earthquake of a losing chavismo should be enough to speed up the collapse of the regime.

This is why the regime has gone on overdrive in recent weeks reaching for the organized looting and destruction of commerce in the country.  All polls pre-looting were implying that Maduro candidates were at least 10 points behind the opposition MUD, and sliding. Furthermore, contrary to Chavez good old days, Maduro does little, if any, direct candidate support: he is toxic.  If Maduro is 10 points behind it means that when cheating is factored in chavismo loses 52 to 48 in favor of the MUD.

I personally doubt that the latest antics of the regime are going to favor chavismo much. At best it will energize chavismo bases but I doubt it will be enough for Maduro to regain his "number" of April. In fact, if votes are reasonably counted, I am on record that chavismo will not reach 6.5 million votes, a net loss of 1 million at the very least since April, in elections that may have a surprisingly high turnout for local votes.

On the other hand the paradox maybe that the opposition vote will not only be re-energized, but as many store clerks are losing their jobs these coming weeks, the opposition may gain a not insignificant number of weak chavista votes directly!  I am willing to go on record that irregardless of the tally, the MUD will not get less than 400 K votes more than chavismo, cheating included. I can see easily chavismo getting no more than 6 million nationally and the MUD reaching the 6.5 million.  Note, I am not predicting anything yet, nor will I considering the extraordinary emotionalism of this vote and the plain intention of electoral fraud from the regime. I am just saying that this 6 to 6.5 result would seem "normal" for me under current conditions. With such a result we would all know that in fact the opposition has now 1 million votes more than chavismo and that this one can stay in office only through violent repression.

It is interesting to note that today November 23 series of street protests all across the country, more or less attended according to the locale (it was as the expected bust in San Felipe for example, but a big hit in Caracas), has been yet another opportunity for the regime to go a notch further in repression. First there has been a blackout on all TV networks in coverage of that protest and Capriles had to go to CNN tonight so at least somewhere we knew what was going on.  That was not all, the man in charge of organizing Capriles campaign travels across the country was arrested for a few hours by the state repressive security breaking into his home in the wee hours. Lopez was directly threatened with jail by Maduro. And other such incidents, including yet a new wave of mall "price police supervision" to try to lure shoppers to the mall instead of public protest. To no avail of course, but it betrays how far the regime will go by December 8.

The details

Considering the above it should be clear for the reader that monitoring individual races is as much wishful thinking than actual electoral science.  Thus in the table below I have only picked up a few races that should help the reader understand better the general political trend of the country in the last three years.  The table uses the rounded up vote numbers of chavismo and opposition in 2008, the last municipal vote, and April 2013. In pink chavista districts and in blue opposition ones. Note, sometimes the color does not match the numbers because I have added numbers when there was a division in 2008. For example in Cocorote the opposition wins by a thousand but loses the mayor anyway because it went divided. The "total" at the bottom include the votes listed minus those of Libertador included in the Caracas at large.  I have starred some districts which are "rural", for the sake of the discussion. I have calculated the percentile advantage for each election for chavismo which means that when the number is negative then the opposition leads. And to compare the two elections I calculated how that percentile moved in 4.5 years. Comments after the table.

MIRANDA CARACAS AND VARGAS

The Caracas Metro area has steadily been gained over by the opposition. Even in Vargas, the most pro Chavez area the opposition has progressed by 9.5%. If Libertador, downtown Caracas, is not a safe bet for the opposition (though its division seems to have been overcome) we should remember that in 2010 the opposition did win by a couple of thousands of votes.  Thus Ledezma seems almost a shoo in for reelection for Caracas at large, some polls already giving him a 10% advance on Ernesto Villegas, and advance that may also help in taking Libertador.

If all the stunts to recover Caracas at large seem to have failed for chavismo the real races are elsewhere, in Miranda where the opposition will prove its growth only if it confirms that it is now a majority in Los Teques and it it takes Guatire. Thus the measure of success for the MUD here is to gain at least 2 out of Libertador, Los Teques and Guatire. It can be done, even the three of them and a bonus district in the Valles del Tuy which would be a true humiliation for chavismo.

ARAGUA CARABOBO AND YARACUY

There the opposition situation is not as favorable. There is really no great candidate at the top of any ticket, the decline of Proyecto Venezuela is not yet compensated by other groups, and the regime has played particularly dirty this time around screwing the natural candidate for Maracay, Mardo, and about to screw the one for Valencia, Cocchiola.

In Yaracuy we pay the consequences of division in 2008 which cost us ALL districts and thus no bases to rebuild. In addition the current rather vicious governor has sponsored many development for low social income in San Felipe turning this most anti Chavez district of Yaracuy iredder, while the middle class developments went to Independencia and Cocorote making them bluer. Thus the metro area of San Felipe may go MUD while San Felipe would remain chavista.

For good measure I have added three small rural districts. Except for Urachiche where the opposition was really low, its growth is not that great though real. Bejuma always lost for divisions this time around should finally go opposition. Boraure which is in part a dormitory of San Felipe could benefit from the pauperization of San Felipe which lured away some of its settlers to go this time around MUD.

The measure of opposition success in these states is to gain the three metro districts of San Felipe and Valencia. If Valencia in spite of all of chavismo treacheries is still likely MUD, a loss in San Felipe would not be compensated by a victory in Bejuma and Boraure. And taking Maracay is of course the true measure of success in that area, as it would prove that the military in this army rich district is not a monolith behind Maduro...

LARA

Barquisimeto should go MUD and maybe even Carora, in addition to Palavecimo. With this three districts chavismo would suffer a major set back. But even if Carora does not fall, taking Barquisimeto, once the jewel in Chavez crown, is going to be major psychological blow for chavismo. Then again they have only themselves to blame for having put a lousy mayor, not allowing her to run again so that a military lout is the candidate this time. The opposition MUD candidate is Ramos, not a great one, but compared to the chavista ones, after the humiliations imposed by Chavez on governor Falcon and even Barquisimeto, chavismo should not be surprised if it loses Barquisimeto by as much as 20 points.

ZULIA

This is one painful and unaccountable governor loss last year since even cheating was not that easy there in a state where UNT supposedly has a strong electoral machinery.  Also the mayor of Maracaibo, nepotistically set in the wife of exiled ex governor Rosales, has not been that great.  Still, the MUD can redeem itself by retaining Maracaibo and adding its southern urban district of San Francisco. Gaining these two districts is crucial for the MUD to remain viable in Zulia, regardless of what happens elsewhere in the state. It is possible considering that chavismo has launched an annoying clown for Maracaibo and that Omar Prieto in San Francisco has been one of the worst thugs of chavismo in recent years and people my be getting tired of the character.

TACHIRA MERIDA AND TRUJILLO

The Andes state are in turmoil after voting for Capriles in 2012 and amazingly putting up chavista governors 2 months later... Well, not Trujillo which is one of the most chavista states today even though its main and lone city Valera may just go MUD this time around. It would be a major success.

Tachira which unaccountably went from the most anti Chavez state to elect "moderate" chavista Vielma Mora should redeem itself with a smashing MUD victory in San Cristobal its state capital.  Merida should also go MUD in its state capital and start undoing the damage of a series of unexplained lousy chavista governors by taking over the second urban district of El Vigia. Thus the measure of success in the Andes, more than how many districts the MUD gains, is to recover a solid vote plurality through Tachira and Merida and pick up Valera to dent Trujillo. Getting that is the best guarantee that the opposition has indeed a solid base for future challenges.

BARINAS PORTUGUESA AND GUARICO

The reader may have noted that I have not included Falcon and now I am skipping over Cojedes and Apure, but these three states do not weigh much today in the grand scheme of things.  In the Llanos, Chavez bastion, the only possibility is to gain Barinas, the capital of the homonym state. More than anything else, getting the state capital of the state who cursed us with baby Chavez, is the best way to demonstrate that chavismo is indeed in the defensive.

I have included for good measure Acarigua and San Juan de Los Morros just to show that if there is progress for the MUD it is rather glacial for the hot weather of this region. Besides Barinas, the lone possible gain is San Juan.

ANZOATEGUI SUCRE NUEVA ESPARTA AND MONAGAS

These states that came late into chavismo grasp have never been that solid for it, besides Sucre the poorer one and a natural candidate for co-dependency politics. Nueva Esparta was lost in December because Morel wanted to run for the nth time and not having been such a great governor, well, he got booted.  There the race to watch is Porlamar, the main district, which should go MUD but where chavismo has dispatched one of its few stars, at least compared to other lifeless polticos.  From my last visit I am still calling it a toss up.

Sucre I am afraid is not to be recovered this time around once the Voluntad Popular representative of Cumana was blackmailed rather too easily to join chavismo.  Getting Cumana is as much as we can hope for.  Carupano would be a feat for the annals.

Anzoategui is also a land of betrayal as the El Tigre Paraquiema family left chavismo and came back to it. In spite of that, or maybe becasue of that, Capriels did rather well last April.

And in Monagas which voted for Chavez even though he forced them to drink contaminated water we have no hope except for an upset in Maturin though its dependency on PDVSA does not make me very optimistic.  The measure of resistance there is to at least retain Porlamar, pick up either Barcelona or El Tigre. Success will exist only if we add either Cumana or Maturin while getting both El Tigre and Barcelona.

BOLIVAR

The election there is particularly interesting because in the latest December Governor election there seems to be very believable claims that the election was stolen. Since then social and political peace have never returned and the chavista military governor has been shown to be at the top of an impressive corruption pyramid. It is to be noted that Puerto Ordaz, the largest worker city in Venezuela went for Capriles if barely in April while the state capital Ciudad Bolivar has been steadily opposition in recent elections.  Nowhere but Puerto Ordaz could illustrate better the break between chavismo and workers as these one are getting tired of so much corruption and broken promises.  Gaining Puerto Ordaz, if opposition divisions are smoothed over, may be with Barquisimeto and Libertador the three biggest omens of chavismo debacle to come.

Concluding notes

The real meaning of December 8, if we make it there as it is clear that the regime is seeking some form of confrontation to postpone the vote or hide massive cheating is not in how many town halls the opposition wins or loses, but which ones and how many votes.

The number of votes because if the opposition manages more than 50% by the CNE it would mean clearly, at least to the military that are the true rulers of the country, that maybe 60% of the country has abandoned chavismo or at the very least Maduro. If Maduro does not get 50% cheating included his days are numbered as his own people will start actively to seek ways to get rid of him.

Of course we would not know for a while the exact voting tally since there are a few dissidents on either side and on election night what people will see are how many town-halls each side got.  From the rural districts, as this table hints at, there is not much to hope for: the acute dependency of these people on government grants ensure that no matter how much the opposition grows, a majority of these districts will remain chavista. Thus Maduro is almost 100% assured that on December 8 at midnight to be able to claim a victory by getting a "majority" of cities, the only thing he can use to try to gloss over an almost certain defeat on vote total.

This being said on December 9 around noon we will be able to measure the real strength of the opposition or weakness of Maduro. Since the objective of the opposition is to speed up the exit of Maduro, an objective which has sympathies inside chavismo, we need a score card along these lines.

Success: more votes than chavismo;  retain Maracaibo and Caracas at large; ensure San Cristobal and 90% of districts already held;  gain at least 4 out of Valencia, Maracay, Barcelona, Puerto Ordaz, Barquisimeto, Los Teques, Cumana, San Francisco; gain maybe a couple dozen of smaller ones so that at least we get one district in every state.

Triumph: at least 52% of the votes cast with chavismo pushed down to 46%; gain 6 of the list above; gain at least 3 of Valera, Barinas, Maturin, Carora, the 3 San Felipe metro together, Libertador, Guatire.

Maduro resigning conditions: a majority of districts regardless of their size as long as  Libertador is included.

Why this scorecards? For the stakes at play. But this is for another post.

Those regrettable moments

I know that Maxima is an habituée of hard core repressive regimes, but this....

The Netherlands King visits the naked emperor of chavismo

In the series of royalty mistakes Willem Alexander should bitch back at the Dutch government for forcing him to visit Venezuela. Certainly doing a Caribbean tour and not stopping by Caracas is a dangerous initiative as The Netherlands share an important maritime border with Venezuela (4 islands!). In addition the economy of three of these islands is quite dependent on Venezuela, from the oil they refine there to the fresh vegetables they ship regularly.  But from there to go and support such a contested figure like Maduro just when he is becoming a full blooded dictator...  Pleaaaaase...  I mean, even the French have manged not to send a president or a Prime Minister!

Of course, speculation is going good. Did they came for an oil concession? Is Venezuela holding some form of blackmail over Aruba?  What is the Dutch prime Minister snorting these days?  Can Timmermans be so incompetent?  Etc.  Whatever it is the opposition is shocked, and I include myself in this, having refused to believe that such a visit could take place, that Wilhelm would come down with the flu at the last moment or something.

We already know that chavismo has no friends and that no matter who do they smile at today, tomorrow they will stab in the back as needed. If the Dutch government does not know that they will learn it soon enough. What is graver for the Dutch is that an hypothetical but not uncertain post chavista administration may not be too forgiving. There is, oh, say, this tweet of Lopez:

Mientras Maduro reprime los reyes de Holanda vienen a pedir concesiones petroleras. Que sepan los "reyes" q se les ven las consturas.
— Leopoldo López (@leopoldolopez) November 23, 2013

While Maduro represses {the people} the kings of Holland come to ask for oil concessions. We got their number.

Needless to say that this visit is quite, quite regrettable and that the Dutch are going to regret it the most.
And to think that there are full gay rights in Amsterdam, freedom of the press, civility, etc. etc.

PS: and let's talk about a commie president kissing ass to royalty.  Chavismo is actually rather discrete about this visit, just enough to try to refurbish Maduro 's image overseas. But we gotta love the ideological incoherence.

Just a day in the life of a dictatorship: Maduro starts applying the enabling law

I never cease to be impressed by the deep denial that still exists in some people as to Venezuela being a military dictatorship.  Sure enough, there are "elections", a civilian "president" is the one "ruling", you can travel if you can find an airplane ticket, you still can read this blog though more and more the regime practices blocking certain pages, there are "so few" political prisoners, the hundred of thousand people that emigrated out are simply not genuine patriots, etc.

Fortunately for those that still do not understand that dictatorships in the XXI century are of a very different species than the earlier ones, Maduro first day with his new toy should be the beginning of enlightenment.  Even among the opposition: this Saturday finally Capriles has called for protests all around the country. About time.....

There is no need to go much in the details of the two new laws signed today: they are, as expected, designed by the regime to control more the economy and punish those it wants to punish. The laws, as the ones to be published in the next months, are mere excuses that make the task easier in finding motives to crack down. As all such type of laws they will not work out, and in the end they never worked in any country. They are mere examples of laws that a dictatorship emits, nothing more, nothing less.  What is more interesting is how the regime bends backward further, if it were possible, the constitution.

One law is to promote corruption. Through this law Maduro creates a Centro Nacional de Comercio Exterior or National Center for Foreign Trade.  Maduro's reported words are rather confusing. Apparently now if you want to import anything you need to pass though that CNCE and sign a contract that proves you will use the dollars approved as intended and that you will be willing to be monitored in all your operations. We can sort of deal with that, it is just a more centralized CADIVI where those who have the power to grant the dollars, corrupt or not, will remain in similar posts.  Not only this will not stop corruption, it will only make it a little bit more circumvented and thus only increase the price of bribes that you will need to pay to get access to dollars to keep your business running.

Where Maduro loses us is with his announcement is that dollars that are approved will have to be deposited in a local account  instead of being transferred to your directly to your provider as it should be the case. How do I transfer dollars from my account to my provider if 1) I cannot have an account in dollars inside Venezuela and 2) there is a currency control exchange that forbids me such transfers? Is this a circumvented way to force providers to "invest" in Venezuela? A disguised devaluation as such transfers could be taxed? Was it just yet another idiotic misunderstanding of Maduro?

The other law, as expected, was to tie together a series of previous laws that will allow the regime to fix not only prices but also how much you are allowed to make in your business. In short, it is the law that is going to destroy large sectors of the economy that require flexibility in their earnings (seasonal character, for example) or that sell few large ticket items that need large margins to sustain business in between sales.  Maduro claims that this law decree will stabilize the economy. He may be right, it will be base line stability.

Now, if this does not reek enough of dictatorship, let me add that Maduro wants to give the price and earning control law a character of "organica" which does not mean at all wholesome and organic.  In Venezuelan legal tradition there are the so called organic laws which need to be voted by 2/3 of Parliament and can only be modified with a 2/3 vote.  The intention is to approve through such laws what the institutions of the country should be, things that are dangerous to change according to the whim of any government. In other words organic laws are in principle the laws that are used to implement the constitutional provisions as to how is the country organized, and NOT necessarily how it is run since this requires more flexibility to account for changes in economy or society.

Thus the beauty of this Maduro initiative: a president that stole his election in April, that is, 1) who does not have 50% of the electorate behind him, 2) has used a 3/5 vote of an assembly which has been obtained courtesy of gerrymandering, blackmailing representatives and firing others, 3) this 3/5 by the way representing LESS votes of the people in 2010 than the 2/5 sitting across the aisle, to 4) get a law that in the future can only be modified by a 2/3 vote even if it was in practice voted in with a spurious 3/5.  And he will get his wish because he only needs the high court, TSJ, to validate the new law as such. Of course, a high court that has violated the constitution so that Maduro can become president is certain to grant him his wish.

Now, if with this you still think that Maduro is not a dictator then please, do not read this blog anymore. Though, of course, you may be able to read it for only a few days more, until the regime blocks my page or something.

Errores de la MUD: algunos se pueden corregir, otros no

Siempre trato de evitar escribir en español sobre política interna de la MUD. Solo lo hago en inglés, para la gente a quien le cuesta entender sus procesos bizantinos. El asunto es que en español no importa lo que escriba sobre tal o cual partido, siempre voy a ofender a alguien. No es objetivo de este blog apoyar o acusar a nadie en la MUD ya que estoy en perfecto conocimiento que la única arma que tenemos frente al totalitarismo cubano-chavista es la unidad. No a cualquier costo, pero unidad al fin y al cabo aunque nos deje de vez en cuando algo de amargura.  Pero ayer he visto dos fracasos gravísimos sobre las candidaturas a alcaldías que me obligan a escribir sobre el asunto.

Baruta

El alcalde saliente Gerardo Blyde perdió las primarias por un puñado de votos en febrero de 2012. Tal vez no haya sido el mejor de los alcaldes pero malo no ha sido. Es mas, aprecio en el virtudes como la discreción en cuanto a publicitar los logros de su gestión. Gigantografías de él no las vi, pero si de otros aspirantes a esa alcaldía. Pero el pueblo habló y aunque no me guste el resultado ganó el candidato de Primero Justicia, David Uzcátegui, hombre también de virtudes ciertas, pero con mas tiempo libre para hacer campaña que el alcalde que tenia que ocuparse también de la alcaldía. Note que yo no voto en Baruta sino en Yaracuy pero mis muy frecuentes extendidas estadías en ese municipio me me permiten escribir sobre el asunto. 

Pues bien, no tengo problema en que Uzcátegui sea el candidato: creo que el será, o debo escribir ahora, seria, un alcalde tan bueno como lo fue Blyde. Pero el deseo exacerbado de PJ de "recuperar" una alcaldía que ellos asumen les pertenece les han puesto a forzar la candidatura en las primarias de Uzcategui a pesar del interdicto del cual lo amenazan desde la contraloría y el TSJ. Los va y vienes que vimos en estos últimos dos años hubiesen debido obligar a mas prudencia tanto a PJ como a la Mesa de la Unidad. Pero no, PJ puso la torta y ayer Uzcátegui a pocos días de la elección, cuando ya no se puede cambiar el diseño de la boleta fue inhabilitado y no podrá ser candidato.

La estrategia del chavismo no es conquistar con trampa a Baruta, eso es imposible por mas Winstones que le tiren al municipio. La estrategia es fomentar la abstención de los electores de PJ en Baruta para que Ernesto Villegas la tenga mas fácil en la gran Caracas.  Yo creo que no va a resultar el truquito, la gente de Baruta es mucho menos pendeja que los electores del PSUV.......  Pero no podemos negar que el empecinamiento de PJ nos ha hecho perder tiempo y recursos.  Por lo menos, ante la hora tan menguada que vivimos, la MUD ya hoy pidió a Blyde ser el sustituto de Uzacategui y parece que este va a ser su jefe de campaña. En pocos días nos habremos olvidado del asunto y Winston, y también esperamos Ernesto, recibirán la bofetada política que se merecen por ser grandísimos sinvergüenzas.

Valencia

Desafortunadamente el entuerto de Valencia no se podrá arreglar tan fácil como el de Baruta y lo que era una alcaldía segura esta hoy en gran riesgo de quedarse en manos del chavismo corrupto que la manejo estos últimos 5 años.  Allí tenemos otra vez la prueba de que la MUD no hizo bien su trabajo al seleccionar candidatos y ponerles condiciones. Como fue el caso de Mardo, aunque este lo hizo peor, el señor Cocchiola quiere ser a juro alcalde de Valencia (y quien sabe que mas mas tarde) y por lo tanto consideró su presencia en la Asamblea Nacional desde 2010 como un tramite.

Seguramente es respetable la ambición política de Cocchiola y de Mardo y de otros, pero esa debería de someterse a las urgencias de una país. No estamos en una democracia normal donde ambiciones internas no amenazan el bien colectivo. Hacer política en Venezuela es hoy en día un riesgo personal ademas del riesgo colectivo.

Por eso no entiendo que carajo fue a hacer Cocchiola a EE.UU justo cuando se iniciaba la campaña oficial para la alcaldía a la cual el aspira.  ¡Ni siquiera era el primer nieto que le iba a nacer!  Ahora todos piensan que se fugó, que se cagó porque tiene miedo que lo pongan preso por los precios de IMECA, etc.  ¿Y acaso no disfruta de su inmunidad parlamentaria por mas usurero que haya sido en IMECA (cosa que dudo mucho, sea dicho, ya que es muy respetable como hombre de negocios)? Y peor ¿un detalle familiar es mas importante para el que todo el pueblo de Valencia? Si se le hubiese muerto o enfermado de gravedad alguien uno podría entender que se tome un par de días para arreglar el asunto, pero cuando uno aspira a una alcaldía tan importante como es la de Valencia, la vida privada tiene que ser de suma discreción. Si el señor Cocchiola no entiende esto entonces todos tenemos derecho de preocuparnos por su idoneidad por el cargo de alcalde. 

Lo que este señor ha hecho este fin de semana es un error político garrafal que el chavismo supo aprovecharse muy bien.  Esperemos que logre regresar pronto y asumir su barranco porque si no lo hace entonces Valencia está casi perdida ya que va a ser muy difícil hacer un cambio en condiciones favorables como el que se hace en Baruta hoy. Pero pase lo que pase, estoy dispuesto a apostar que esa aventura de Cocchiola con el nieto le va a costar por lo menos un concejal, si es que gana la alcaldía. Por lo menos tenemos la suerte que el candidato para Valencia del PSUV es Miguel Flores, una joyita del entrono corrupto de Ameliach. Después del desastre de Parra le va a ser muy difícil llevarse a Valencia por delante. A menos que Cocchiola siga ayudándolo.

En fin, me disculpo por estas quejas, pero a veces me exaspera ver que en las pocas condiciones favorables que tenemos, logramos meter la pata.  La MUD tiene que tener mejor seguimiento y consejería para sus candidatos....... Y los agalludos calmarse un poco porque por mas agalludos que sean, por mas alcaldías que logren quitarle al régimen, poco harán mientras la cuerda de forajidos con Maduro de parapeto siga en Miraflores. Aclaren sus prioridades, por favor.

The next few months for Venezuela

Let's go beyond what qualifies as the "mundane" for the regime. Let's not focus on the organized looting, or the spontaneous one.  Let's not delve on the idiocies of the regime which claims that looting and forcing to sell at a loss will encourage production and lower unemployment. Let's just say that what started with the Daka looting over ten days ago is a mere politico-electoral ploy from the regime, that they never quite meant it the way it turned out.

Yet there will be consequences. Which ones?


I am not going to write as a pontificating economist. Firstly, I am not one. Secondly, you do not need to be a graduate from Ivy League School of Business to guess that the odds for Venezuela to enter a deep recession next year are in the 99%+.  The Maduro regime has made a massive blunder by destroying the commercial sector which is what holds together the financial and productive sectors.  Without commerce to distribute the goods around the country there is diminished receipts for the manufacturing sector, and there are no commercial benefits that go to the banks so they cannot invest in production ventures. If you do not understand this generality, if you do not agree with this, then do not waste your time reading further.


Venezuela is a very difficult country to work in.  The inherent flexibility of any commercial sector has made the Venezuelan one able to cope more or less with the situation making sure it all did not fall apart earlier, as it is about to happen.  Logistics are tremendously complicated in a country where the inefficient regime makes harbors unworkable, does not maintain properly highways and infrastructure in general, create rules after rules that inhibit commerce, etc. Furthermore, commerce is particularly understanding with the difficulties of many producers in ways that the banking system cannot or will not. I will refer you to the glaring example of AgroIsleña which nationalization 3 years ago has created havoc in Venezuelan agricultural output.

And in case the difficulties alluded to in the preceding paragraph were not enough, commerce must deal with an inflation above 50% that is joined to the corruption of the currency control that includes nice features such as retroactive devaluations where the regime forces you to pay old debts at new larger prices, wiping out any earnings you may have managed.  Thus the calculation of restocking costs has become a true dark science in Venezuela where you need to calculate selling prices by balancing what you think the market may pay for the goods you want to offer against your wild bet as to what you will need to fork in order to replenish your shelves. Any error may make you look like Shylock or may send you into bankruptcy.

The regime has used the rules it made to control the economy as a paltry excuse to punish the economic actors for the mistakes of the regime. And this is where it all centers: who will want to keep playing a trumped game knowing now for sure that there is no way you can protect yourself from the main abuses, and even less hope of winning your case.

If we assume that the regime "never meant it that way", which I think it did but that is my opinion, then what can the regime do to restore some equilibrium? Nothing. The regime does not have enough money available to refurbish the depleted shelves, if anything because corruption would take too much of a bite out of whatever the regime would be willing to settle with. Can the regime replace the commercial sector? No. We have for that the glaring failures of AgroIsleña now a derelict AgroPatria; we have the failures of the Bicentenariao chain holding courtesy of left over French management, and the Mercal who only offer goods on occasion, according to arrival, numbering people's arm for their turn in line when necessary. The state distribution system as it is is on the verge of instituting ration cards.  If the regime wants also to pick up malls and electronics it will only add more strain to what it is doing today, and further corruption and black market.

Considering all of this, what can we expect, not even for next year, for next month already?

First, people are going to empty their meager savings to shop for whatever they can shop. I went myself to a Locatel (refusing to shop in any taken over shop refusing to profit from the misery of others) and spent several K bolivares on stuff that I do not need yet but that I know I shall consume in the next 6 months, from soap to acetaminophen.  I did not buy electronics because I have all that I need and I am not going to buy a refrigerator just because the one I have is sixteen going on seventeen.

Second, surviving commerce is not going to be able to replenish shelves or will do so in part, and ONLY after the regime guarantees them access to a stable currency rate.  The consequences are immediate, beyond the empty shelves: a whole bunch of people are going to go jobless in the next very few months.

Third, our quality of life is going to go down south. Commerce also provides spares parts and once a store is on its knees it will, if it does, only buy a minimum of spare parts, those that it is sure can fly away from the shelves really fast before any inspector shows up.  Now, when my refrigerator breaks down, I may not be able to get a new compressor, nor a new refrigerator.

Fourth, production will be affected faster than what you know. Because in addition of needing to import raw materials that the regime intends to control more than ever, by purchasing it all themselves before they sell it back to you, we also need a lot of supplies that will not be readily available anymore (and many already missing before last week crisis).  For example at work I need car spare parts, electrical supplies, safety implements for workers, etc. If I cannot find these within reasonable delays I may have to shut down, first a day here or there, then a week here or there and then close down once and for all.

Let me illustrate you the perversity of the system. For example safety equipment for workers are already difficult to get. If I cannot get them anymore what should I do? Endanger my workers? Risk a punitive fine by INPSASEL that could bankrupt me as they cannot care less whether I can find the supplies?  I better close shop.

Fifth, as the regime relies on sales taxes and income tax and fines to pay for its public workers (the rest is paid by oil, rounding up numbers if you allow me), it will lose significant income with all the consequences you can imagine.  Will the regime ensure purchasing power of the public sector? Yeah, right...Some of my clients depend in part of contract from the regime to supply Mercal. If the regime stops paying, how long can they hold?

Sixth, seventh, eighth.....  you get the cascade picture.

The regime has put itself in a corner. It has either to back down badly and badly fast, or it has to go all the way with its open dictatorship plan that I doubt it has much capacity to implement in the long run as it needs to start by internal purges.  Whatever the regime decides we can expect next year a major degradation in living conditions forcing
massive repression which will not be able to stop violence, a violence that I must say will start mostly from the henceforth supporters of the regime.

The regime has no capacity to raise fast oil production to get the money it needs to import all the country needs and no capacity to spread it in case it could miraculously increase oil production and revenue; or at least tell Cuba and China to fuck off on their indentured share of oil.

Thus 2014 is a sure crisis waiting for us.

Carta abierta a Nicolás Maburro Maduro

¿Y ahora que Nicolás?

Bosch tiene tu ficha

Te escribo esta carta tuteándote porque quiero apostar a que si algún día la leas, la entiendas. Me parece que en tus años de canciller no has entendido el uso correcto del 'Usted', y menos el respeto que se le debe a la gente. Por ahí decían que tu eras de trato amable y dialogante pero yo nunca me lo creí. Siempre fuiste un flojo y como se sabe la flojera es la madre de todos los vicios. Tus meses en Miraflores nos han confirmado esto, la ira, la soberbia, la envidia, la avaricia, la gula y hasta la lujuria.

Claro está que no creo que este texto llegue a tus manos. No importa, yo escribo para que quede constancia, para que sea una argumento mas en contra de los que pagarán el desastre que estas dejando, que no puedan usar la excusa del "Yo no sabia. Yo solo cumplía ordenes". Por lo menos alguno que otro chaburro chavista lo leerá y me mentará, demostrando que en algún clavo le dí.

Lo que has hecho la semana pasada no tiene nombre. No es que hayas echado a todo el comercio de Venezuela al basurero. Total, siempre fue el plan de Giordani y Jaua y otros locos de erradicar el capitalismo de los otros, no necesariamente el de ellos. Es que has arruinado al país.  Nicolás, yo se que no tienes la capacidad de entenderlo, pero sin comercio no funciona ni la producción, ni la finanza. Y sin los tres tampoco hay salud, educación, cultura, deporte, vida..... No existe experiencia histórica donde el estado haya asumido el comercio y haya sido un éxito. Simplemente no existe. Claro, con tu educación defectiva no lo vas a saber. El problema es que tu soberbia no te ha permitido buscar la gente que si sabe de eso. Los únicos que dejas que se te acerquen traen la envidia y juntos nos dejan la ira.

Todo empezó, claro, cuando diste un golpe en enero para agarrarte la presidencia de un Chávez ya muerto, jodiendo a Cabello.  Eso es problema de el y no se me pasaría por la cabeza defenderlo. Una vez que pusiste el dedo en el engranaje del mal, no podíamos sorprendernos cuando hiciste trampa y te robaste la elección de abril.  La sorpresa ese día no fue que te robes la elección: es que ya eras tan malo, habías perdido tantos votos, que tuviste que hacerlo. Y eso que en aquellos días todavía medio escuchabas a gente como Merentes que por mas sinvergüenza que sea por lo menos tenía una media noción de como se bate el cobre en una economía.

Tuviste tu chance de empezar a liquidar el nefasto legado económico de Chávez y no lo hiciste. A el no le tembló la mano nunca para robarse lo que sea necesario para comprar una elección.  Pero el tuvo siempre el instinto de dejar algo en pie, para la próxima elección. Claro, sabiendo que estaba condenado no se preocupo de la vorágine de corrupción y desorganización que creó con la Misión Vivienda.  La diferencia es que Chávez siempre le robó mas a las arcas publicas que al privado y tu no entiendes eso, saqueando a todos parejo. Es el famoso cuento de la gallina de los huevos de oro. Ahora se murió el pobre animal. El año que viene puedes olvidarte del impuesto sobre la renta y del IVA. Ya vas a ver que haces.

Pero eso si, desde el pasado abril se te ve la gula y la avaricia en la cara, hasta la lujuria por el poder se te nota, mucho mas que cualquier lujuria por cualquier primera combatiente. Hiciste un cerco con los mas atrasados comunistas que crees te darán todo el poder que ni Chávez tuvo. Giordani volvió de superhombre al ruedo, con Ramirez que ha sido el pirata saqueador mas grande de nuestra historia, por lo alto que es y por lo que dejó que saquearan de PDVSA. Ahora estás en la lona, sin entender que esa chusma, ideológicamente fracasada y cuyo único superpoder es el resentimiento, te ha traicionado, a sabiendas o no, ya no importa.

Al fin y al cabo todo esto no te preocupa: estás cumpliendo con el mandato de los cubiches que controlan el país y que te controlan ya hace décadas, parece.  Los cubiches saben usar a los flojos, siempre lo han hecho, son maestros en chulearse a la gente y reclutar la ayuda necesaria.  El problema tuyo Nicolás es que has cruzado una linea de la cual no hay retorno. No lo digo por Venezuela, al fin y al cabo el muro de Berlín que era una cosa mucho mas seria y terrible que el chavismo cayó.  Todo cae por su propio peso algún día y la revolución de mentira ahora que se ha vuelto basura va a caer mas rápidamente de lo que tu crees.

El problema que tienes Nicolás es que cuando mandaste a saquear a Daka metiste otro dedo en un engranaje aun mas fatal que el primero. No solo no tienes legitimidad pero ni a legalidad puedes pretender ahora. Presides un sistema donde un grupo se coge lo que quiere, cuando quiere, sin explicaciones. Es la mafia, mas nada. Y todos esos malandros, Nicolás, para que lo sepas, te van a culpar a ti de todas la fechorías que cometieron y tu lo pagarás. No te preocupes que ni yo ni la oposición te lo vamos a cobrar. ¿Como haríamos? Los que te lo van a cobrar son tus seguidores cuando los anaqueles no se vuelvan a llenar, los militares corruptos a quien le tumbaste el negocio, los boliburgueses que dejaste embarcados. Y hasta tus mismos radicales cuando ya no queden ni casas para saquear. Puede ser que venga el día que ni en Cuba te reciban.

Ya no importa si ganas o no en diciembre, y que conste que yo creo que ni con trampa vas a ganar porque presiento que mas votos pierdes con el saqueo que los que crees ganar.  Aunque todavía no sea obvio para todos ya es muy tarde para ti: la semana pasada pasaste a la historia de la infamia y de eso ya nadie te puede rescatar. Es mas, hasta las culpas de Chávez te las van a endosar. Vas a ser mas que el hijo de Chávez, vas a heredar todas sus deudas y desaciertos, ademas de pagar lo tuyos. Prepárate.

Why I am not covering the "enabling law"

Yesterday the regime managed to boot out enough opposition representatives or blackmail/buy enough to its side that it got the magical 99 number to vote the enabling law.  Such a momentous moment (redundancy intended) should be covered duly. But I'll pass for a few reasons:

First, I have covered already the essential, the truly fascist nature of that law voted yesterday in first reading and certain now to pass the second vote next week.

Second, we have been, as far as I am concerned, into a bona fide dictatorship since 2010, at the very least. This law changes nothing, it just simplifies the legal aspects of the regime, in a "retroactive way" on all the abuses committed in recent months.

Third, derived from second, Maduro and the regime are already doing all what they want about the economy. Redundantly again, the law is a mere "legal" stamp and maybe an additional excuse to settle scores inside chavismo.

Fourth, a regime that knows it has the right on his side, that feels confident and supported, that holds already a decisive majority in the parliament does not need such a show.  That enabling crap is a mark of weakness that pushes us over the brink. Why bother about the details?

What is more important to cover is how a huge chunk, a majority chunk of the Venezuelan population, not all of them, by far, chavistas, are only too happy to let private enterprise sink, without defending it, without being aware of the consequences. And the opposition MUD is at least in part responsible because for meager electoral calculations they are too afraid to confront the regime as it should be confronted even if it were to cost them a few town-halls next December. Apparently they actually think that the regime will "respect" whatever victories they will get.  After the video below you KNOW that the only way out is through some from of violence. We cannot escape it because those in charge today are seeking a violent confrontation.



This video is remarkable on many aspects that most commentators that are P.C. will not dare to tell you.

You do not need to understand the words at all.

The anguish of the store owner who prefers to be outright looted instead of sealing his death by the slow process of being forced to sell at a loss everything.

The anguish of the store clerks that know that the owners have worked very hard for their store and that she and other clerks are going to be jobless tomorrow.

The "public servants" there trying to calm them down and take them away from the cameras of the local TV or whomever is filming this.  Their faces betray that they are not happy with what they are forced to do. Yet, they are too far gone to take a stand on ethics.

And the non P.C. part I promised. the owners are of middle eastern origins. They are still sort of fresh from the boat (10 years?). They have probably supported Chavez for his love to anything Muslim against anything US and/or Jewish. And now they are paid in kind.  Though admittedly they may be from the Christian minorities. But it does not make any difference: the regime is ready to throw to the wolves whoever it takes.

A regime that has allowed dozens of such scenes this week and that has decided to let them keep recurrent for the next few weeks, until election time at least, is a regime that has lost all humanity, that has fully assumed its position of a gang of thieves that leads the servile and morally corrupt majority portion of the country. Why should I bother covering the enabling law?  The only thing worth discussing is ways out of this nightmare.

To conclude I would like you to come back to a post I wrote a little bit over a year ago "When mediocrity and resentimiento will all over".  And then you will understand why I suffer from a Cassandra complex.....

From rabipelao courts to public lynching: a day of contradictions in the regime

A regime on overdrive to survive has no qualms exploring interesting ways to reach results and contradict itself as it goes, as often as needed.  If you needed evidence that Maduro is grasping for straws, you get them in the last couple of days.

Let's start with the title.  This morning I was writing that Maduro was proposing/ordering kangaroo courts to send the owners of stores he does not like faster to jail.  But tonight I have to write that he wants now "el pueblo" to take the initiative and seize looters.   There are many problems with this. First Maduro recognizes that the looting problem is big enough to deserve a stronger response when 24 hours ago it was mere isolated incidents.  Second, if rabipelao courts are good enough for Daka's owners why not send looters to the same courts? The answer to these contradictions is that Capriles went on record saying what we already all knew from pictures in twitter: the looters are directed by PSUV operatives. And I add since there is no way to prove it at this point, that this is the way chosen by the regime to pay these operatives in view of the dirty work required from them until mid December.

Todos los focos de saqueos,anarquía,caos,son dirigidos por el psuv para después decir que somos nosotros,alertas!
— Henrique Capriles R. (@hcapriles) November 12, 2013

All flash points of looting, anarchy chaos are directed by the PSUV and then they will blame it on us. Be alert!

Another fascinating contradiction is that after having started the worst wave of looting in Venezuela since 1989, and by far, Maduro today asked people to come and invest in the country.  In a day, by the way, where Venezuelans bond dropped as the international trust in the country is about junk bond status.  Can we assume that Maduro is stupid enough to contradict himself so blatantly so fast?  Well, maybe, but there must be something else too.

As he was saying that, today we also learned that car battery manufacturers were intervened, that stores such as shoe stores were threatened, that looting started to reach small store owners, of the neighborhood quality. What gives? Possibly he wants to convey overseas that the only ones to worry are the Venezuelan businesses who are unreliable and should be replaced by foreign ones.  But even this generous hypothesis from my part rings hollow because Maduro had the chutzpah to ask Venezuelan business people to bring back home the dollars they have stashed overseas, on the week where he mad private business lose millions of dollars that cannot be recovered ever. No, what Maduro was truly announcing was his economic vision, believe it or not: no more private business in Venezuela besides the big ones in association with the regime. I will note that someone commented to me today that the regime is going to have to nationalize now Daka and related because the owners are not going to refurbish the stores or the inventory; that this was a logical step because after having ruined agriculture and manufacturing the last stand of private business was commerce and banking. And banking he does not need to move against because the regime is the main driver of cash through the system and thus banks will not rise against the regime.

And yet there is another major contradiction but of a more subtle nature to understand. Today finally the Nazional Assembly managed to get rid of one of the opposition representatives which through the viciousness of Venezuelan politics will be replaced by a safe pro Maduro vote (though rumor has that he has been extorted though his properties in Monagas to make sure his future votes are the ones wished for; such as the two other opposition votes brought to chavismo though due extortion).  This beyond undemocratic maneuver is to get Maduro the wished for enabling law to deal with corruption and economics.  But does he need it? And this is where the contradiction lays because this week with the looting and the announcement of the kangaroo courts, and that he will limit what a business can make in earnings, Maduro is doing already what he would do with the enabling law. Clearly he does not need it. Or does he?

Let's read two of Leopoldo Lopez tweets today:

El conflicto interno del gobierno no solo es politico. Hay un enfrentamiento entre mafias de poder, narcos con chapa de altos funcionarios.
— Leopoldo López (@leopoldolopez) November 13, 2013

The internal conflict inside the regime is not only political. There is a confrontation between mafias fo power and drug traffickers with high public servant badges.

Quienes son los cadiveros? Publica la lista Maduro. Quienes son los directores d esas empresas? A quien responden en el gobierno?
— Leopoldo López (@leopoldolopez) November 13, 2013

Who are those that who benefited greatly from CADIVI [currency control]? Publish the list Maduro. Who are the directors of these businesses? To whom where they linked inside the regime?

Leopoldo says on twitter what no air-wave media will allow him to say because such is the extent of censorship that the regime has gone out to ask that the word "looting" is not pronounced. And with that he puts his finger on the true pressing concerns of Maduro, concerns that he can only solve with an enabling law that gives him powers to deal with his internal enemies, not the democratic opposition that he is already screwing fine without any extra law, thank you!

To get rid of any opposition muscle it is enough to apply Marxist theories of end to private property. Now the private sector has been so weakened that a reaction like 2002 is not only impossible but the victims of governmental abuse remain silent, will not even publish a bland press communique least the regime damages more than their properties: their families and their lives.  But to get rid of tribal factions inside chavismo.........

These contradictions and actions of some of the regime spokespeople (Cabello is strangely subdued in an occasion where he should be giving a declaration a minute) mean something else: Maduro has allied with the radical wing of chavismo and he is trying to make a legalistic coup against the other factions of chavimso. The coup is not against democracy and the opposition, that one was done in 2010. The coup in progress is one against a chavista group which will imply by force that Venezuela will become a Marxist country where oil revenue makes life somewhat mess miserable than in other Marxist countries like Cuba or North Korea.

Then again the coup may be coming from Maduro's own entourage who is pushing him to make such idiotic decisions so as to get rid of him sooner than later.

Maduro promises us kangaroo courts (or is that rabipela'o courts?)

Bolivarian special court and jury

The regime knows it has blundered and that the organized looting it has recklessly promoted could boomerang badly. So appropriately Maduro announced yesterday that there will be "special courts" created to prosecute those that "speculated" on prices. Considering that anything above 1% is considered speculation by chavismo that means that we are all a target.  For good measure, since clearly the Nazional Guard and the Police are often either helping the looters or unwilling to confront them he asked the chavista militia to ensure the security of the threatened stores. In fact, he wants to make sure the militia gets its share of the loot.

Of course, these kangaroo courts are unconstitutional although for chavismo they will be made legal. Maybe we shall call them rabipelado courts since the Common Possum is the lone, I think, Marsupial of our continent.  Militia is equally unconstitutional, but who's counting?

We even had a military jerk bitching in cadena that the opposition was mocking the people in line at Daka. They cannot even get that one right, we are condemning them for taking advantage of the misfortune of someone to make a gain.

Forging on with faascism....

País de mierda

From Electrodomesticonacht to electrodomesticowoche?

The country is in shock. Well, part of it anyway, the decent one to which I am sure I belong to. The other one, the chavista one and the "I cannot care less, dame lo mio", which is the stuff that electoral chavista majorities are made of, kept looting stores here and there, from Puerto La Cruz to Cabimas. For all the Maduro protest that he has nothing to do with the disaster he has started a stream of low burn looting here and there that he has only himself to blame. Furthermore, it is not that the regime seems unable to control the situation, it seems that the regime is unwilling to do so. Regarding the degeneration in values of the countries, well, we have Chavez to blame for it, turning the horror of the 1989 Caracazo into an acceptable chavista family values in 2013.


Maybe Daka was an "acceptable" target for a diverse assortment of idiots, but today it is clear that the small guy in your small neighborhood appliance store is also paying the price.  I have nothing to add to what I have been posting steadily since last Saturday. I am appalled, and even more, an expression I heard today "depresion politica" which I am sure readers need no help to translate.  What depresses me further is to read foreign accounts, even from my fellow bloggers that do not reside in Venezuela anymore and that, I am sorry to say, are not getting it.  But, then again, I am here and tonight words fail me anyway.

Thus I can only leave you with a fabulous Weil cartoon, again, more devastating than ever with an intended primitive child like drawing; and a video of one of the looting, in Cabimas, maracucho accent included.

"justice" "values" "democracy"

The Electrodomesticonacht plot thickens

Gustavo Coronel publishes this morning (but without links, only his sources) that the owners of Daka are not in jail, that they were in Panama where they enjoy the benefits of a diplomatic passport. There they opened with the money earned in Venezuela a mega store of appliances and as such, well, they do not need to come back to Venezuela, ever.

In short, what Coronel hints at or seems to believe was that the whole thing was an arrangement between the regime and the owners, where the looting of one store was planned and where the first people to show up to loot, or those that are in line first to buy at discount prices when a given store is not looted, are organized chavistas groups that were on short notice, and that the regime needs to satisfy and cannot these days, as it is short of cash. Let's remember that the Chines have refused the easy 5 billion in cash bail out Maduro desperately needed to buy his way through the December vote.

It is possible. After all there are pictures circulating on the Internet where the faces of the owners of Daka and Ivoo appear cozy with Arreaza, the current vice president, an antisemite. These Muslims, well, I am sorry but there is no polite figure of speech that I can find to sound PC, were in bed with Chavez since 2003 at least, as a majority of the Muslim population of Venezuela who could not believe their luck at such an idiotic anti Israel president for Venezuela.  Let's not forget that this radical Muslim stance is deeply espoused inside the regime where a PSUV representative went to Syria to "fight" next to the Assad troops.

Why not believe that Daka owners, who have secured a few millions for their future, who are probably hard workers any way, regardless of any cultural chip they may have on their shoulder, did not accept that request from the regime? A slow burning looting accompanied of obscene discount that at least recover the non speculative costs, all compensated at least in part by insurance companies and the loss of Daka in Venezuela may not be as big as one may think, and a small price to pay for your liberty to own one of the major electronic stores in Panana with the capital to expand it fast, away of the cesspool that Venezuela has become, even for them.

Thus the regime sensing a social problem did get a short term patch to satisfy its hard core followers who are nothing less but criminals, used over the last decade and a half to a life of crime and larceny and free gifts in exchange of electoral cheating, violence against the opposition, attending each Chavez rally, etc.... A controlled looting is certainly better than a generalized one, the more so when the losses are diluted courtesy of the arbitration in currency. That is, the real losses of the Daka episode will be borne by the people, the losses of Daka and its cronies in the regime being duly minimized by further looting of the state coffers.

The question is, will the looting of Daka Valencia be enough?

PS: of course, the reputation of Maduro as a pathological liar is confirmed since he claims that the owners of Daka have been arrested.  Not only they have not, but their silence at the loss of their commercial empire in Venezuela seems to confirm all that is written above.  Venezuela is indeed a narco-laundering state.....

PS2: this, of course, does not change an iota that the order of Maduro to loot stores, that throwing to the wolves business people to pay for his own mismanagement is absolutely reprehensible and will get him one day a jail sentence.

Not so random thoughts on Electrodomesticonacht

UPDATED
At 24 hours from the start of the festivities, we can put together a few thoughts.

It does not matter who the looted store owner were

El Nacional economy journalist Blanca Vera Azaf is strikingly wrong when she so lightly points out in a string of tweets that the

Unos boliburgueses enchufados tenían negocito con altos funcionarios del gobierno que les vendían electrodomésticos importados (1)
— Blanca Vera Azaf (@bevavera) November 10, 2013

The psychological damage is there to stay, be it a store owner chavista or not. I can vouch myself from by errands yesterday that escualido store owners in Las Americas mall knew that Daka was regime associated which did not stop them from being outraged. Even a woman working at a small cart stand selling waffles was near hysterical at what she considered a plain robbery.  This was an attack to private property and people who work truly for a living understood that perfectly.

See, shop owners know that whether you inherit, create or steal the money to open your shop, it takes hard work to keep it afloat. Maybe the owners of Daka were from middle eastern origin, maybe they got started with sweet exchange deals with the regime, but their stores were well kept, they had supplies, they created jobs, etc....  Shop owners of Venezuela understand at gut level that the way to punish the owners of Daka is not by stealing their goods, but by sending tax auditors and levy the necessary fines and taxes.  Besides, the price argument is not a good one: nobody forces you to buy in a store. It is up to the customer to do the leg work and compare stores and prices. Only particularly dumb chavistas can content themselves with one product, one quality, one store, one price.

Blanca Vera Azaf should know better than stress such distinctions which play straight into the hands of the regime......

The bolibourgeois (and Cabello) are on the defensive

But since the stores most hit at first were the bolibourgeois ones (the less linked ones were hit yesterday late, as an afterthought of the regime it seems) we must also accept that a large part of the play was done by one chavista sector hitting on another one.  What is remarkable in the strategy chosen is that it has NOTHING to do with socialism but all with mafia wars.  Had the seizure been "socialist" we would have seen an expropriation, a militarization from the start, etc...  more legalism in short, more "el pueblo" organization. What we saw was a crass destruction of the economic might of one group that displeased the other with a whole bunch of opportunists picking the remains.

Maduro and whomever pushed him (Giordani) are true ignorant

We can argue that ignoring the consequences of yesterday may be willful (I want to end capitalism) or the product of ignorance (but I only wanted to punish the bad guys). What we cannot argue is that there will be huge negative consequences that apparently they cannot see, and even less understand if they could see.

When Maduro announces that it wants the Internet providers of Venezuela to censor pages that publish the black market rate of the US dollar we can only be astounded at the stupidity of the man. In no particular order:
- Maduro ignores how Internet works, that all eventually gets to be known sooner or later, even inside China.
- Maduro thinks that the "overpricing" of Daka et al., is due at the owners being directly influenced by reading such pages.  The same idiotic argument that pushes some people to want to censor comics because it induces kids to commit crimes.
- Maduro and Giordani truly think that they are doing great and that if the currency has gone from 1 to 0,01 in 15 years it is not because of their lousy policies but because they have been sabotaged all along. Never does it cross their minds that if it were so easy to sabotage an economy Al Qaeda would have bankrupted the USA long ago.
- Maduro and Giordani apparently do not know that all regimes that pretended to control all NEVER could avoid the existence of some form of black market, not even the efficient Germans in occupied Europe during WW2.

What matters the most in Venezuela is the economy

Yesterday Daka seizure covered more expectations than the regime could hope for. The timing of the measure which certainly had a relation with covering electoral bad numbers, Capriles received by the Pope and the march convoked by the opposition yesterday has blown in their face. Indeed, all other news were shut up, EVEN that a Miss Venezuela did get yet another International beauty pageant. Everybody from tweeter to store owners in Las Americas talked about the looting and only the expected chavistas tried to put a good spin on it. I am willing to go on record that overall the result is bad for the regime, that it will not gain them much votes if any, because people that loot probably cannot be bothered to vote to begin with and know very well that whether Maduro remains in office or Capriles wins, they are more likely to preserve their loot under Capriles than a Maduro than cannot control the terrible crime wave that could tomorrow steal their loot. As for "el pueblo" what it really wants to know is whether there is somewhere milk to loot.

Added tonight

The electoral campaign numbers are bad

What Maduro et al. tried this week end is a clear reflection of their polling numbers.  Barely a month before an election that you claim you will win you do not need to pull such a stunt (and only one of the many stunts pulled such as declaring December 8 the day of Chavez remembrance).  Such a reckless call to "clean up the shelves" by Maduro only proves that he is indeed afraid of losing the majority vote IN SPITE of all the electoral cheating coming our way.  Which can only mean one thing: in chavista polls the opposition must be leading by more than 5% which is in my past estimation what the electoral cheating bonus is worth.

From my political contacts this week, and I did not visit them for poll numbers as I know how fickle and imprecise these are this time around, the Metro Caracas numbers look very good, even in the Libertador district, the jewel in the crown for chavismo that even a divided opposition may take, if barely.  But I was told of some surprising numbers in the hinterlands that may confirm that next December 9 a large majority of the Venezuelan population will be ruled by opposition mayors. Chavismo can still take comfort that the way districts are organized in the country they are still significantly ahead in the total number of mayors but these ones will have a novelty: the overwhelming majority in the local councils they enjoyed before will not exist anymore.  In short chavismo is going to lose its main patronage tool after the central administration, a large majority of town-halls.  In fact, a solid showing in those councils could make it very difficult to activate the plan B, to develop "comunas" to weaken mayors elected for the opposition.

The worse may actually come to pass for chavismo: the local elections may turn out to be a plebiscite on Maduro and this creep is helping them to become so!  He may regret Daka in a few weeks.

Even the campaign finances are bad

Another thing that we can get confirmation of with the Daka looting is that the regime does not have the means to buy votes the way it used to do under Chavez. Usually at month of any election under chavismo the regime had already occupied all the main public locations to plaster its propaganda. This time around they are rather late when they should have been earlier than usual.  Also the ubiquitous "fairs" where chavismo will distribute goods are much rarer and, I was told, less provided than in the past.  That Maduro decided to loot Daka for electoral purpose can only mean that indeed, they do not have all the money they would love to have.

Electrodomestico-nacht, the banana republic version of Kristallnacht

She supports Maduro. The good life!
Thieves of the world unite!

It is kind of eerie that tonight we commemorate the 75 anniversary of Kristallnacht when Hitler made his first large scale pogrom based on a rather minor political event in Paris.  But those are other times, in bolibanana pseudo revolution which has only in common with the Nazi of those days to be a band of thugs that turned to fascism to reach and retain power for as long as they could, to death if need be in order to avoid the punishment they so richly deserved.

And yet today may be a turning point of equal importance for the Caracas regime. Today it has crossed the line where it is now OK to loot stores to satisfy the appetites of its followers. Today it made OK to brand enemies whoever needs to be branded an enemy even if a few weeks ago it was benefiting from the association with power, a mutual benefit if I may dare say.  Today it has become clear that the regime will destroy anything it needs to destroy to remain in office. Today formalities have become unnecessary. Today the regime has demonstrated that it has no friends or foes, just moving targets.

What had started yesterday with the house appliances chain of Daka and the store of Pablo Electronica has extended tonight to many others, from Caracas to Margarita.  Everywhere the regime claims that it fights excessive price increase and yet it blunders in admitting that Daka did not work with CADIVI obtained currency, explaining why they were so pricey.

What these stores had been doing was to anticipate yet another organized robbery from the government that is preparing yet another "retroactive devaluation".  What these stores had been doing was to anticipate that the black market US dollar value was expected to cross the 60 per USD bar anytime soon.  For those late in the game, Venezuela has a tight and corrupt currency control system. What the regime did early this year and it is ready to do again within the next three months, is to fail to honor its bills at the current currency exchange and pay them AFTER the devaluation at the new currency exchange.  That is, what you obtained in good faith at X BVE for one USD, you will have to pay later at Z, Z being at least 30% more expensive. I know personally of it, I suffered the consequences earlier this year.

This is not about being associated with the regime or not, this is not about working ethically or not: what Daka et al., were doing was preparing themselves to avoid yet another major income loss as we all suffered last February, at the expense of the customer which in the end is always the one who pays even if idiots like the woman above are laughing their heads off.  The regime simply decided today to throw to the wolves the head of the directors of all the appliance stores of Venezuela, "electrodomesticos". Tomorrow it will the supermarket CEO; or maybe the liquor stores one as the hoi polloi cannot get in its usual December semi constant drunken stupor.....

It is true that nobody quite understood how in an era of drastic currency controls traditional stores like CompuMall or Beco did not manage to grow at the astounding rates like some did such as Daka or Mundo Samira or even recent newcomer Ivoo. We, those that manage businesses, knew that the only way to grow so was to be well connected with the regime, "enchufado" as Capriles call them.  Honest businesses, like ours, simply could not do so no matter how efficiently we worked, the regime allocating you foreign currency on past results, not expected economic growth.  We are thus surprised that the whole lot was dismissed so suddenly. Had it been Daka alone we could speculate that the owners felt into disfavor because they either refused to pay a bribe, or refused to "share" the profits.  That tonight most of them are in the dog house has to have a deeper political meaning.

That political meaning is not too difficult to find out. The incompetence of the regime has bankrupted the country. Now, for this electoral campaign they find themselves without money to purchase all the goodies they give around to buy votes.  What to do, oh what to do!?  Well, force those who are more efficient, that have some goods in their store rooms to supply what is missing to make the chavista voter joyful. And if the goodies of Daka do not make it all the way to the cerro, the idea remains that it shan't be long until the goods reach the chavista voter.  Because the sad reality is that the looting or taking advantage of the forced down-slide of prices today benefited more the middle class than the inhabitant of the barrio, high on the cerro.

The economical consequences are of course going to be terrible: who in his sane mind is going to invest a penny of his or her own in Venezuela as long as an asshole like Maduro remains in office?  A Maduro who, by the way, demonstrated again today how clueless and mean he is, the most lethal combination in economy.  At a time when the regime is desperate to reactivate the economy it has taken the measure that is most certain to push it into recession.

Looter's loot 

The political consequences are going to be only worse. The country will be even more divided while Maduro will be more than ever a puppet of those he needs to keep control of the populace who after today is going to expect more and more giveaways and legalized looting.  But then again, just as in Kristallnacht, the regime needs a scape goat to justify its hold on power.  Maduro will be swept aside whenever it is convenient for whomever truly holds the reins of power.  In this electrodomesticonacht Maduro appears weak and manipulated and even pusillanimous. Hitler never lost control of his assault troops like Maduro lost control of his in Valencia.  And of course when people realize that Daka et al. are not refurbishing their shelves anymore, then Maduro praised by some idiots today will be blamed by them tomorrow.

But the saddest part of all are the looters, those that were not afraid to profit from the misery of others. And this is the worst lesson of today and the darkest forebodding in my heart. Just as 75 years ago most of a nation had no qualms in letting a minority lose its livelihood and its lives. For those like the woman above published around the world from El Pais, we shall pay dearly in the future.


Bonus: video when the looting started in the Daka Valencia store this morning.  those are not people from the lower classes, this is Valencia middle class. Poor people would loot as much, see the woman above, but in the initial news when only prices were supposed to go down and people forced to pay something, poor people probably felt that Daka would be still too expensive for them.

Desperation News and Views

Daka pictures on newspapers and Twitter

UPDATED FOR LOOTING
So what is a regime that got handed the news of 5% inflation for a single month, whose main "evil" opposition leader is received by the Pope, when a "spontaneous" multigathering protest is convoked for today, that cannot hide the increasing low key riots for food, to do? It decides to sack a major electronic store chain.

Maduro ordered yesterday to seize the 5 stores of Daka, an overpriced, but then they all are, electronic/appliance chain. Allegedly the stores will be forced to recalculate their "costs" and sell all their appliances at "just price".  We assume of course that the militia and Nazional Guard in charge of the organized semi looting will be served first.  Maybe even for free. Which does not stop a country of "lambucios", from the regime or the opposition, to rush to the store to take a turn in the line and be the first ones to shop when they open again. Maduro conoce su ganado we would say in Venezuela, Maduro knows his cattle.


Yesterday I was told by reliable insiders that polls in Petare district, all the East of Caracas with about a million inhabitants and 460,000 registered voters, mostly living in old established favellas/ranchos/barrios, indicate a 2 to 1 lead for Ocariz, the current mayor, from the opposition, that has had his administration sabotaged for the last 5 years by any possible trickery from the rules book on power abuse.  This is a district that in a normal democracy should be voting 2 to 1 for any political party of leftist connotation. This is all what you need to know to understand why the regime is acting crazy for the last few weeks.

Because crazy it is. Not only ordering a government sponsored looting of a major appliance store that will surely close down after that (though the owners of Daka may be on the wrong side of the intra chavista fighting) but Maduro even announced that he would deploy anti-aerial defenses on the top of the barrios hills.  The excuse is to defend the country against bombing from the US as if the US were to spend a dollar bombing a shanty town when it only needs to decide to stop buying suddenly any oil from Venezuela to have the regime collapse within hours.  Since the US did not feel offended by this absolutely useless defense system, for good measure yesterday a journalist from the Miami Herald was arrested.  Will the US say anything before December 8?  I suggest pipsqueaking is the way to go to let self imposed ridicule flourish.

Seriously now.  Daka and Pablo Electronica (another major supplier in Caracas) may or may not be overpriced, but if they are it is due to the scarcity of foreign currency, it is due to the retroactive devaluations, it is due to the uncertain rules of the economic game. If Daka and Pablo were overpriced yesterday they were vindicated in gouging customers and hiding their earnings under the mattress until the regime struck.  The people lining in front of these stores to get a good deal today are worse parasites than were ever Daka because once they get their "cheap" refrigerator they will have nowhere to get the next one: who is going to keep investing in that line of business when the regime will steal your merchandise whenever it feels it useful?  The end road for the hoi polloi is less goods available, and true black market gouging.  See Cuba.

But the bad faith of the regime is the worse aspect of the whole scandal. We learn that when they revised the prices at Daka and Pablo they decided that the purchase receipt in dollars of the imported goods should be counted at the official 6.3 exchange rate when in fact a lot if not a majority of the stock comes at SICAD price of 10 to 15, or street value at 30 3 months ago. What stores do is an average of sorts between their three sources of currency to establish their final prices since they have no way to know what will be their next source of currency.  I am not saying that I defend Daka who may or may not have been a major abuser. What I am saying is that Daka, like any supplier of imported goods, as a irrational price cost structure that is imposed on them by the disastrous economics of the regime, a regime that punishes Daka for the mismanagement that comes from the regime.

This goes beyond "shoot the messenger", this is putting up for public lynching any retailer, in the short term. Today Daka, tomorrow the bodega of the barrio.
------------------------
UPDATE
We have pictures of Daka Valencia who seems actually to be looted straight by regime followers, starting with the people in charge.

Nazional Guards with their loot

NOTE: I forgot to go deeper earlier in that there is the possibility that the owners of Daka and Pablo may have had "arrangements" with people inside the corruption ladder of the regime for their import deals. That would not be the first time that the regime throws to the wolves people that have stopped being useful. Remember Fernadez Barruecos? Arne Chacon?

The store of Daka in Valencia has been properly sacked and we have even pictures in twitter catching Nazional Guards on motor bikes going away with their share.

And I add this: it is quite possible that in the deep cynical nature of the regime they may have decided some slow cooking organized looting to avoid a repeat of the Caracazo of 1989, one that they could not control at all with the current state of the armed forces.

Maduro/Giordani idiotic "measures" seen from ground zero: more corruption to come

Capriles and the Pope, the real
news of Wednesday

Wednesday Maduro made a cadena to announce "economic measures" that were mere administrative measures. Nothing is changed, the country's economy is tanking and the regime finds nothing better but to increase further the controls which have proven to be fail sure since 2005 at the very least, not to say ever in Venezuela.

I am not going to go into the official announcements which were in reality of a political nature, timed to hide from view that Capriles
has been received by the Pope yesterday. Instead I am going to go into what it means for me, a small businessman.  I will pick up a some of  them to dissect and you will be able on your own to infer that things are going to get worse, faster.  Besides the opposition has a detailed answer on the expected failure and experts like Santos are on it.


But first the indicators that we inherited from the gargantuan expenses made in 2011-2012 to reelect Chavez just before he croaked.

On the left the scarcity one, which means that for any given item the odds are that at least one in five stores will be out of it. Which means that for the crucial ones like flour and milk, at best one in five stores will have it. On the right you can see the monthly variation of the annual inflation rate.  What does this mean for my job? Supplies are more difficult to be found and prices are increasing. As a consequence I will need to keep increasing my own prices and stop any hiring, any investment project because I am not sure whether I will be able to keep producing. Not making money, producing. We have forgotten about making money, content to survive in the increasingly faint hope of better days. Note: you can update the charts above with a 5.1% inflation just for October 2013 accompanied by a 22.4% scarcity index, as ADMITTED by the regime...

The worst administrative measure Maduro announced was the intention of the regime to basically control all prices relevant to your average household. I will note that all the control schemes created since 2003 have led us to the current situation, an economy overly regulated, with extensive price controls that still manages 50% inflation. What does this mean for me? Well, nobody works extended periods of time at a loss.  Some of my clients will be deeply affected and will either buy less, produce less or close altogether. Less clients, less work for me.

The regime will increase the military control and inspections over business.  A renewed wave of fear will sweep manufacturers which will be tempted to produce as little as possible to avoid formation of stock which can be seized by any inspector or any armed lout trying to score brownie points. You need to understand that having a few days of stock in your warehouse so as to plan well your distribution schedule across the country is considered as hoarding by the regime. What the regime wants is a "dispatch at once" policy which is unpractical and actually increases costs.  Since my business is upstream to food producers there is a chance that I will get a nasty inspection which of course will find nothing wrong with me but will be a waste of time and create psychological trauma to the employees.

That hoarding specter is one that is so ridiculous that I cannot understand why Maduro keeps harping on it.  Jorge Roig of the business association state it clearly last Monday: "there is not a gram of food that does not move without the government control".  As I have described already in May 2010, gotten worse since, to transport any food item across Venezuela you need a government permit. It is thus EXTREMELY difficult to hoard, or at least to hoard in large amounts. The only possible hoarding these days is at the level of SMALL shopkeepers and of sheer physical storage space availability we are never talking more than a few days supply in 99% of the cases reported.

The regime will once again screen the registry for all business that ask for dollars for imports.  Since it is unable and unwilling to do the audit work to detect fraudulent business, it it will probably end up forcing everyone to re-register, or some variation of the theme.  This is terrible because to import anything you need about a dozen of "solvencias" and permits which are not time synchronized and which you must all have valid at the same time before you can ask for dollars. If you have to process some of them again just for the sake of it, that means that you may not be able to get your act together for several months and cannot import raw materials for that long. For my business just to get all of these permits anew would mean a time investment of at least three months in which I could run out of all my stocks of raw material, forcing me to close down. And I run a business that is favored in that I am involved in food production!

But that is not all, the regime threatens to become the sole importer. That is, I will have to ask the regime to buy for me what I need to work.  I will let you imagine how an inefficient regime can guarantee me timely supply of what I need to work, at what price and under which bribing conditions......  Chigüire Bipolar calls this new center for import the centralization of all corruption.  We even have Giordani announcing that the regime will give the private sector less dollars to punish them, as if the private sector was responsible for the robbery committed by chavista operatives with bolibourgeois like Derwick Associates who by themselves may have stolen as much as 2 BILLION dollars.

In short, what Maduro has proposed yesterday is in fact inapplicable. Why do I write this, in all confidence? Because the people that have been UNABLE and UNWILLING to apply controls porperly in the past are not only going to be unable to apply the new more complex controls but are probably not going to look forward to it. Not because they fear to be discovered in their corruption, incompetence and inefficiency, but because today they are so brash that they simply will resent anything that delays their cashing in of mega bribes.

It is that simple.

But unfortunately the country in the process will grind into a standstill and then shit will happen.  You read it here, first or not, it does not matter, it is all common sense.

As a bonus I will publish below the flow chart of corruption in Venezuela as investigated by INFODIO and our great @AlekBoyd.  This what Maduro needs to look into if he wants to get back the cash he so sorely lacks today.